BUY
Result Update Ethos Ltd Target Price
16th May 2025 Retail 3,150
Growth Story Remains Intact; Maintain BUY
(CMP as of 15th May 2025)
Est. Vs. Actual for Q4FY25: Revenue – MISS ; EBITDA – BEAT ; PAT – BEAT CMP (Rs) 2,766
Changes in Estimates post Q4FY25 Upside /Downside (%) 14%
FY26E/FY27E – Revenue: -7%/-8%; EBITDA: -5%/-5%; PAT: -5%/-4% High/Low (Rs) 3514/1963
Recommendation Rationale Market cap (Cr) 6771
• Robust results: Ethos delivered a strong performance in Q4FY25, with revenue increasing Avg. daily vol. (6m) Shrs’000. 42.4
23.3% YoY, driven by sustained demand for premium timepieces. SSSG for FY25 stood at No. of shares (Cr) 2.4
17.4%, while overall volumes grew 15.5% in FY25. The contribution from luxury and high-
luxury segments rose to 70% (vs. 68% YoY), with ASP improving 7.3% YoY to Rs 2.04 Lc. Shareholding (%)
Management remains focused on long-term value creation, reiterating its ambition to scale Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25
10x over the next decade.
Promoter 51.2 50.8 50.6
• Margin Performance: EBITDA increased 32% YoY to Rs 48 Cr, with EBITDA margins at
FIIs 12.3 12.6 12.6
15.3%, up 104 bps YoY, supported by gross margin expansion of 186 bps to 31%.
• The structural story remains strong: Ethos’s outlook continues to be backed by robust and MFs / UTI 13.7 14.4 15.6
consistent performance over the past several quarters, led by 1) sustained strong structural Banks / FIs 0.0 0.0 0.0
demand in the premium and luxury watch segment, 2) planned store expansion across watch Others 22.8 22.2 21.3
and lifestyle categories, 3) entry into the fast-growing CPO segment, 4) increasing share of
high-margin exclusive brands, and 5) diversification and scaling of another luxury segment— Financial & Valuations
luggage and jewellery. The company has also reiterated its long-term growth aspiration of Y/E Mar (Rs Cr) FY25A FY26E FY27E
achieving 10x revenue growth over the next decade. Net Sales 1,252 1,595 2,118
Sector Outlook: Positive EBIDTA 190 260 346
Company Outlook & Guidance: Considering the company’s long-term outlook remains strong, Net Profit 96 139 193
we maintain our BUY rating on the stock. EPS, Rs 39.3 56.8 78.9
Current Valuation: 40xMar-27 EPS (Earlier Valuation: 40xDec-26 EPS ) PER, x 70 49 35
Current TP: Rs 3,150/share (Earlier TP: Rs 3,070/share). EV/EBITDA, x 36 26 20
ROE, % 10 12 15
Recommendation: We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Financial Performance: Ethos delivered strong topline performance despite a challenging Change in Estimates (%)
environment, with revenue growth of 23.3% YoY (25.3% in FY25). SSG improved to 17.4% in
Y/E Mar FY26E FY27E
FY25. EBITDA grew by 32.3% YoY to Rs 48 Cr, with EBITDA margins at 15.3%, up by 104bps
Sales -7% -8%
YoY, due to gross margin expansion of 186bps. The company’s PAT stood at Rs 23 Cr, up 8.2%
EBITDA -5% -5%
YoY.
PAT -5% -4%
Valuation & Outlook: Ethos’ promising future is supported by its robust and consistent
performance over recent quarters, driven by 1) Sustained strong demand in the premium and
luxury watch market, 2) Expansion into the fast-growing CPO segment, 3) Increasing share of Relative Performance
high-margin exclusive brands, 4) Diversification into the growing luxury segments of luggage and 185
jewellery, and 5) Significant potential for margin and ROCE expansion. Given this solid investment 165
thesis, we expect Ethos to achieve a strong revenue CAGR of ~29% and PAT growth of 32% over 145
FY24-27E. After a sharp decline in the stock price, the company is trading at 48x/35x its FY26/27E 125
EPS at the current market price. With enhanced visibility in earnings growth and a stronger return 105
profile, the stock presents an attractive opportunity within the Smallcap space. We maintain our 85
BUY rating, valuing the company at 40x Mar-27 EPS, which results in a target price of Rs 65
3,150/share, implying an upside of 14% from the current market price. 45
25
Key risk – Increase in GST for luxury watches, slowdown in luxury demand Nov-23Mar-24 Jun-24 Oct-24 Jan-25May-25
Key Financials (Consolidated) Ethos Ltd. BSE Sensex
(Rs Cr) Q4FY25 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Axis Est. Variance (%)
Source: Ace Equity, Axis Securities
Net Sales 311 (15.8) 23.3 316 (1.4)
EBITDA 48 (16.5) 32.3 43 10.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.3 -12 bps 104 bps 13.7 161 bps
Net Profit 23 (22.9) 8.2 22 3.5
EPS (Rs) 9.3 (22.9) 8.2 9.0 3.5
Source: Company, Axis Research Preeyam Tolia
Research Analyst
email:
[email protected] Suhanee Shome
Research Associate
email: [email protected]
1
Other Key Highlights
• Strong Store Addition: Ethos continued to scale its premium retail footprint in FY25, adding 15 new boutiques (including 1 in Q4FY25)
and expanding its network to 73 stores across 26 cities. The company remains on track to exceed 100 boutiques by FY26, supporting
its aggressive retail expansion strategy. Strengthening its luxury positioning, Ethos plans to launch its second Rimowa boutique in
Delhi and eight additional stores in May 2025, including India’s first exclusive Messika outlet. These initiatives highlight the company’s
strategic focus on premiumisation and deeper penetration in high-opportunity urban markets. Additionally, it launched the 22,000 sq.ft
“City of Time” in Gurgaon, a unique store in India housing 50+ brands and lounges.
• Rimowa – Rimowa’s first store in Mumbai has achieved Rs 20-24 Cr in billing in the first year of operation.
Key Risks to Our Estimates and TP
• Higher volatility in currency exchange rate (CHF/INR),
• Slowdown in the luxury & premium segments.
• Increase in the competitive intensity.
• Increase in GST on luxury goods.
Change in Estimates
Old Est. Revised Est. % Revision
FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E
Revenue 1,713 2,290 1,595 2,118 -7% -8%
EBITDA 273 365 260 346 -5% -5%
PAT 146 201 139 193 -5% -4%
EPS 59.8 82.3 56.8 78.9 -5% -4%
Source: Company, Axis Securities
2
Results Review
Var (%)
% Change % Change
(Rs Cr) Q4FY24 Q3FY25 Axis Est. Q4FY25 Axis Sec
(YoY) (QoQ)
Est.
Net Sales 253 370 316 311 23.3 (15.8) (1.4)
Gross Profit 74 108 90 97 31.1 (10.4) 7.0
Gross Margin (%) 29.2 29.1 28.6 31.0 186 bps 188 bps 243 bps
Employee Expenses 19 24 24 21 10.0 (12.4) (12.0)
Other Expenses 18 26 23 28 51.3 4.6 21.0
EBITDA 36 57 43 48 32.3 (16.5) 10.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2 15.4 13.7 15.3 104 bps -12 bps 161 bps
Oth. Inc 8 6 9 6 (28.4) 4.9 (31.8)
Interest 4 5 5 5 28.7 0.6 (4.2)
Depreciation 13 17 17 17 33.1 1.1 0.1
Share of profit from associates 0 (0) (1)
PBT 28 41 30 30 8.7 (25.8) 1.5
Tax 7 11 8 7 10.3 (33.5) (4.2)
PAT 21 29 22 23 8.2 (22.9) 3.5
EPS 8.6 12.0 9.0 9.3 8.2 (22.9) 3.5
Source: Company, Axis Securities
3
Financials (Consolidated)
Profit & Loss (Rs Cr)
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25A FY26E FY27E
Net sales 999 1,252 1,595 2,118
Growth, % 26.7 25.3 27.4 32.8
Total income 999 1,252 1,595 2,118
Raw material expenses (698) (877) (1,096) (1,447)
Employee expenses (70) (85) (111) (151)
Other Operating Expenses (79) (100) (128) (175)
EBITDA (Core) 152 190 260 346
Growth, % 32.6 25.3 36.6 33.3
Margin, % 15.2 15.2 16.3 16.3
Depreciation (49) (63) (71) (80)
EBIT 103 127 188 267
Growth, % 29.2 23.3 48.3 41.6
Margin, % 10.3 10.2 11.8 12.6
Interest paid (16) (19) (23) (28)
Other Income 24 24 22 21
Non-recurring Items - - - -
Pre-tax profit 111 130 187 259
Tax provided (28) (34) (48) (66)
Profit after tax 83 96 139 193
Growth, % 38.1 15.6 44.4 38.8
Net Profit (adjusted) 83 96 139 193
Unadj. shares (Cr) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Wtdavg shares (Cr) 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Source: Company, Axis Securities
Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25A FY26E FY27E
Cash & bank 345 220 217 201
Marketable securities at cost - - - -
Debtors 16 18 23 31
Inventory 440 593 755 1,003
Other current assets 63 60 60 60
Total current assets 864 891 1,055 1,295
Investments 25 36 36 36
Gross fixed assets 278 535 605 675
Less: Depreciation (40) (103) (174) (254)
Add: Capital WIP - - - -
Net fixed assets 238 432 431 421
Non-current assets 32 40 40 40
Total assets 1,171 1,410 1,573 1,803
Current liabilities 258 401 426 463
Provisions 2 3 3 3
Total current liabilities 260 404 429 466
Non-current liabilities 26 23 23 23
Total liabilities 287 427 452 489
Paid-up capital 24 24 24 24
Reserves & surplus 859 958 1,097 1,290
Shareholders’ equity 884 982 1,121 1,314
Total equity & liabilities 1,171 1,410 1,573 1,803
Source: Company, Axis Securities
4
Cash Flow (Rs Cr)
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25A FY26E FY27E
Profit Before Tax 111.3 130.1 186.9 259.5
Adjustments for :
Depreciation and Amortisation Expenses 48.7 63.0 71.3 79.5
Write off / loss on sale of property, plant & equipment 0.1 0.8
Interest Paid 16.0 19.3 23.3 28.0
Effect of Exchange rates on the translation of operating cash
0.0 0.1
flows
Profit on the deletion of leased assets
Rent Recession
Loss / (Profit) on Sale of Assets (0.6)
Bad Debts Written Off -
Provision for Bad and Doubtful Debts (1.7) (0.8)
Share of profit of the joint venture (0.7) 1.9
Share options lapsed -
Unrealised foreign exchange gain (0.5) (0.1)
Rent waiver on lease liabilities - (0.4)
Gain on termination of lease contracts. (0.1) (1.1)
Allowance for doubtful debts/(written back) 0.0 0.0
Allowance for doubtful advances/recoverable - 1.1
Interest received (18.3) (21.8)
Advances/deposits / Bad debts written off 0.4 0.2
Other (2.5)
Operating Profit Before Working Capital Changes 152.3 192.1 281.5 367.0
Adjustments for :
(Increase) in loans 0.1 0.2
(Increase) In other financial assets (5.1) (7.3)
Trade receivables (9.6) (2.9) (5.0) (7.6)
Other financial assets 7.6 (7.9)
(Increase) in inventories (99.8) (153.0) (162.5) (247.8)
Increase in provisions 1.1 0.4
Trade Payables 0.9 (7.3) 24.3 37.1
Increase / (Decrease) in Non-Current Liabilities 10.2 (5.7)
Increase / (Decrease) in Current Liabilities 1.0 5.8
(Increase) / Decrease in Non-Current Assets
(Increase) / Decrease in Current Assets
Cash Flow Generated from Operations 58.7 14.4 138.3 148.6
Direct taxes paid (27.9) (34.7) (47.9) (66.4)
A) Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities 30.8 (20.3) 90.5 82.2
B) CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Purchase of PPE and intangible assets (39.4) (79.3) (70.0) (70.0)
Proceeds from the sale of PPE and intangible assets 7.9 6.0
Purchase of Investments (1.0) (4.7)
Investment in bank deposits (having an original maturity of
(83.7) 101.6
more than three months)
Others (18.4)
Interest received 11.9 23.1
Net Cash Used in Investing Activities (122.8) 46.6 (70.0) (70.0)
C) CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from the issue of equity share capital (including
175.0
premium)
Proceeds of Long-Term Borrowings (Net) 0.3 (0.0)
Share issue expenses (5.4)
(Repayment) of LONG long-term borrowings (1.1)
Proceeds from/of other current borrowings (net) (0.4) (4.7)
repayments of other current borrowings (net)
Payment of the principal portion of lease liabilities (28.1) (33.9)
proceeds from the repayment of current borrowings
Interest paid on lease liabilities (15.1) (18.2) - -
Interest expense paid (0.4) (1.5) (23.3) (28.0)
Net Cash Used in Financing Activities 124.7 (58.4) (23.3) (28.0)
Net Increase/ (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents 32.7 (32.1) (2.9) (15.8)
Cash and cash equivalents as of 1st April 27.9 60.6 28.5 25.7
Cash and cash equivalents as of 31st March 60.6 28.5 25.7 9.9
Source: Company, Axis Securities
5
Ratio Analysis (%)
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25A FY26E FY27E
Per Share data
EPS (INR) 34.0 39.3 56.8 78.9
Growth, % 28.1 15.6 44.4 38.8
FDEPS (INR) 34.0 39.3 56.8 78.9
CEPS (INR) 53.9 65.1 85.9 111.3
CFPS (INR) 5.3 (7.3) 18.5 13.7
Return ratios
Return on assets (%) 9.7 9.0 10.9 13.1
Return on equity (%) 9.4 9.8 12.4 14.7
Return on capital employed (%) 12.7 12.0 15.1 17.8
Turnover ratios
Asset turnover (x) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7
Sales/Total assets (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3
Sales/Net FA (x) 4.5 3.7 3.7 5.0
Working capital/Sales (x) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Receivable days 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.3
Inventory days 160.6 172.8 172.8 172.8
Payable days 41.3 30.5 30.9 30.9
Working capital days 95.3 78.5 94.3 108.7
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio (x) 3.4 2.2 2.5 2.8
Quick ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6
Interest cover (x) 6.4 6.5 8.1 9.5
Total debt/Equity (%) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Valuation
PER (x) 81.3 70.3 48.7 35.1
PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 2.9 4.5 1.1 0.9
Price/Book (x) 7.7 6.9 6.0 5.2
EV/Net sales (x) 6.6 5.5 4.3 3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 43.3 36.0 26.4 19.8
EV/EBIT (x) 63.8 53.8 36.3 25.7
Source: Company, Axis Securities
6
Ethos Ltd Price Chart and Recommendation History
Date Reco TP Research
15-Jan-24 BUY 3,050 Initiating Coverage
15-Feb-24 BUY 3,100 Result Update
14-May-24 BUY 2,700 Result Update
16-Aug-24 BUY 3,600 Result Update
11-Nov-24 BUY 3,450 Result Update
17-Feb-25 BUY 3,070 Result Update
16-May-25 BUY 3,150 Result Update
Source: Axis Securities Research
7
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