Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science

Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021

Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

Production Forecast Using Decline Type Curve (Case Study for Reservoir X, Field Y)
Teodoro Marcos Mota, Margarida Otávia dos Reis Alves
Department of Petroleum Engineering, School of Petroleum Studies, Dili Institute of Technology, Timor-Leste
Email: [email protected], [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Decline curve analysis (DCA) is the most common method applied practice in the evaluation of reservoir parameters and to forecast future
production of oil and gas, also to estimate ultimate recovery and reserves. Predicting the production rates from a given well is the most
considerable interest in the oil and gas industry. The objective of this work presents the use of decline curve analysis to obtain the type of
decline, remaining oil reserve and oil productivity in reservoir X field Y. Production data is the only available information which used in
DCA, by plotting rate of production versus time for a given well, an extrapolation can be made to provide an estimate of the future rates of
production for that well. Result shows the types of decline for these wells are exponential decline curves and the total EUR for reservoir X
from well A, well B and well C started producing until July 2016 was 24,835,856.82 with RF 29%. While the total amount of oil reserves
that can be taking is 82,316.82 STB for 17 months from January 2015 to July 2016.

Keywords: Decline curve analysis, remaining oil reserve, cumulative production and production lifetime.

Received August 15, 2021; Revised October 29, 2021; Accepted November 13, 2021

1. Introduction optimizing production operations, business planning, safe,

economic, and sustainable exploitation of oil and gas
Field Y is a type of oil field which located in Timor (Onyemaechi et al., 2020).
Sea, formerly called Joint Petroleum Development Area Due to this, it is necessary to estimate the remaining
(JPDA) where the area is about 200 km from southern oil reserves that can still be produced up to the economic
Timor-Leste and 500 km northwest of Darwin, Australia. limit using the decline curve method, which aims to predict
This field began production in 2011 with an original oil in the production rate, cumulative oil production and
place (OOIP) 86.9 MMSTB. Reservoir X has been production life time at “X” Reservoir, Y field. Therefore,
produced several years with three wells, and the rate of the purpose of this research is to evaluate the remaining oil
production also started decrease till a temporary shut in, in reserves that can be extracting up to the economic limit as a
December 2015 which with cumulative oil production was basis for development planning in Y field. This work
26.23 MMSTB. presents the use of decline curve analysis to obtain the type
Evaluating production performance of conventional of decline, remaining oil reserve and oil productivity in
and unconventional reservoir are very important, because it reservoir X field Y.
helps to understand the risk involved in the development of
these reservoir, also to understand production mechanisms,
fluid properties, reservoir characterization and behave. 2. Literature Review
Then, search for the proper method that can be used to
predict the future performance of these reservoirs more There are a lot of studied had been done to investigate
accurately and reduce risk as a basis for oil and gas on the production decline analysis in the oil and gas field
(Kegang and Jun., 2012). Many studied had been conducted
development planning (Kocoglu et al., 2020). According to
and has significant contributions globally for the oil and gas
Dan et al., (2018), decline curve analysis is one of the
exploration and development (Arps, 1945; Arps, 1956;
method used to estimate the amount of oil reserves based on
production data after a certain time interval. The decrease in Fetkovich et al., 1980; Fetkovich et al., 1987; Fetkovich et
production rate is influenced by various factors, including al., 1996).
the driving mechanism, pressure, physical properties of One of the most empirical result presented by Arps
had been applied for many decades and proved applicable
rock and reservoir fluids.
tool in production forecast. Production decline is related to
Decline curve analysis is one of the fundamental tools
the reservoir pressure, different reservoir fluid and reservoir
used in forecasting production rate and estimate oil
recovery (Bhattacharya and Nikolaou, 2013). One of the drive mechanism (Kegang and Jun., 2012). DCA is the
most important tasks of a reservoir engineer is able to most important fundamentals in petroleum engineering to
forecast reserve, forecasting future production rates,
predict lifetime of production well. These production
forecasting life of a well, EOR and even to determine the
forecasts are used for estimating remaining reserves,
OOIP. Other researcher had been conducted research and

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

published focus on oil and gas production decline, such as: For oil cumulative production:
Ehlig-Economides and Ramey, 1981; Chen and Poston,
1989; Duong, 1989; Doublet et al, 1994; Rodriguez and Np = qin/Di (1/1-n) (qi1-n - q1-n) (5)
Cinco-Ley, 1993; Callard and Schenewerk, 1995; Agarwal
et al, 1998; Hagoort, 2003; Yang, 2009; Keshinro et al., 2.3. Harmonic
2018; Han et al, 2019; Kianinejad et al, 2019; Kaur et al,
2020). Harmonic decline in the oil production, the following
Conditions that can influence and change decline rate equation can be use:
are separator pressure, tubing size, choke position,
workovers, compression and operating hours. During these q(t) = qi /(1 + Di t) (6)
conditions do not change the trending decline can be For oil cumulative production:
analyzed and extrapolated to forecast future well
performance. Np = qi /Di ln q /qi (7)
Developed by J.J. Arps in 1940 it is one of the first
method used for decline curve analysis. The Arps decline
regarded as the condition shown relationship between rate Table 1. Arp’s Models (1945)
production and time in oil production well (Dou et al.,
2009), as indicated by the following equation: Decline exponent
Decline Type Arp’s Models
value
N=0 Exponential 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞𝑖 𝑒 −𝐷𝑖𝑡
q(t) = qi (1 + nDi t)-1/n (1)
−1
0<n<1 Hyperbolic 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞𝑖 (1 + 𝑛𝐷𝑖 𝑡) 𝑏
Where:
N=1 Harmonic 𝑞𝑡 = 𝑞𝑖 (1 + 𝑛𝐷𝑖 𝑡)−1
q(t) = oil production rate at production time
qi = initial oil production rate
n = decline exponent
2.4. Estimated Ultimate Recovery
Di = initial decline rate
EUR is an estimate of the total amount of oil that
The three types of curves Arps used to best fit data to could ever be recovered from the volume initially in place.
predict flow rate vs time are exponential, hyperbolic and The EUR is typically broken down into three main
harmonic. If the value of n = 0, then it is called exponential categories: cumulative production, discovered reserves,
decline, if the value of 0 < n <1 is called hyperbolic decline both commercial and sub-commercial, and undiscovered
and for the value n = 1 is called harmonic decline. resource (Yu, 2013). Cumulative production is an estimate
of all of the oil produced up to a given date. Discovered,
2.1. Exponential commercial, reserves, are typically broken down into
proved, probable, and possible reserves. Production data is
An exponential decline for oil production well can be
one of the key parameters used in oil and gas industry to
obtained using the following equation:
determine the life span of producing hydrocarbon, in order
to predict the profitability of oil reserve. Oil reserve is
q(t) = qi e- Dt (2) estimated volumes of oil, condensate, natural gas, natural
For oil cumulative production the following equation can gas liquids and other commercially related substances can
be applied: be taken from the amount accumulated in the reservoir
(B.C. and Hawkins, 1991).
(𝑞𝑖 – 𝑞)
Np = (3)
𝐷
2.5. Recovery Factor
Where:
The ratio of reserves to oil initially in place for a
Np = cumulative production given field is often referred to as the recovery factor.
Recovery factor is the ratio of the amount of oil or gas that
2.2. Hyperbolic can be extracted to the amount of oil or gas in place by
using primary, secondary or tertiary recovery technology.
Hyperbolic decline in the oil production, the following
Recovery factors vary widely across countries, geologies
equation can be use:
and technologies, and may change over time based on
q(t) = qi (1 + nDi t)-1/n (4) operating history and in response to changes in technology
and economics (Dake, 1978).

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

Table 2. Summary of production decline equations (Fetkovich et al.,1996)

Decline Type Hyperbolic Exponential Hamonic

Rate Time q(t) = qi/ (1+bDit)1/b q(t)=qi/eDit q(t)=qi/(1+Dit)
Time to q(t) t = {[qi/q(t)]b-1}/bDi t = In[qi-q(t)]/Di t = {[qi/q(t)]-}/Di
Cumulative –Time QΡ =[qi/(1-b)Di][1-(1+bDit) (b -1/b)] QP =(qi/Di)(1-e -Dit) Qp=(qi/Di)[In(1+Dit)]
Rate-Cumulative Qp =[qib/(1-b)Di] [qi(1-b)q(t)(1-b) ] Qp=[qi- q(t)]/QDi Qp=(qi/Di)In[qi/q(t)]
From Rate-Cum. Di is not definable; (Qpuo is
Di= [1/(1-b)]/2(Qpuo) Di=qi/Qpou
Di at q(t)=0 infinite).
Di = [(2n+1)/2](qi/Npuo)
Di(oil) Npuo=N x (RF) Where RF =f (kg/ko) n = 0.5;Di= (qi/Npuo) Not derivable

Di=2n(qi/G)
G= Gi x (RF) Where RF = [ 1- (Pwf /PR)] n= 0.5;Di=(qi/G) Not derivable
Di(gas)
b(oil) Where pwf = 0 b = (2n-1)/(2n+1)Where n is between 0.5 and 1
b(gas) Where Pwf = 0 b = (2n-1)/(2n Where n is betwee 0.5 and 1

3. Research Methods 4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Selecting Production Trend for Decline Curve
In this research using quantitative data, which is the
Analysis
emphasis of research on collecting and analyzing numerical
data; it concentrates on measuring the scale, range and Result shows there were three wells such as well A
frequency of phenomena. In this study obtained data from was drilled on 16 November 2010 with 3,510 MDRT. Well
report which addressed by Z company (FDP, 2009). The B was drilled 10 days later with measure depth 3,549 and
data source used in writing this research is secondary data, well C was drilled on 09 January 2011 with the same
in which refer to production profile for tree different well MDRT of well A. These well were chosen to be analyzed
such as well A, well B and well C. These wells located in because they met the decline criteria which during this
reservoir X field Y. After known the time and its period there were no changed in production patterns in the
production profile, then applied decline curve analysis wells started from the beginning production in October
method to obtain the type of decline, remaining oil reserve 2011, nevertheless with time flowed by the rate production
and oil productivity in reservoir X field Y. In this research started to decrease till December 2015, then these wells
using excel as a tool for analyze and constructing the graph. were shut in.
Production data in this research refer to fluid rate (oil,
water, and gas), time and production history, fluid
components, tracers and subsurface pressure. Qo versus Time
25000.00
Table 4. Data of reservoir X field Y for case study (FDP, 2009)
Production Rate (Qo), Bopd

Production Production
20000.00 trend well A trend well B
and well C
Parameter Value Unit 15000.00

OOIP 86,900,000.00 STB 10000.00

Production rate 7717 STB 5000.00

Cumulative production 24,753,540.00 STB 0.00

Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15
Field economic limit rate 3,000 STB/D TIME (T), DAYS

Well A Well B Well C

Pressure data refer to formation testing, BHP, THP, and
continuous downhole monitoring (Wheaton, 2016).
Production profile data for well A, well B and well C in Figure 1. Production trend analysis on well A, well B and well C
reservoir X filed Y which used in this research discussed
Due to these, well A and well C were taken at the
briefly in table 3 (appendix) and table 4.
same months and year which was from august 2014 till
January 2015, on the other hand well B was taken from
January 2015 till may 2015 with different rate production

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
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each well, because they were dramatically depleted. The of production during that period. Result in table 5, table 6 and
first trend with rate production 2982 BOPD which were table 7 show the value of decline (b) in extrapolation of
gradually declining to 2436 and the second trend were production data using the loss ratio method for well A =
steady fall from 3765 to 2452 BOPD, even well C also was 1.085077951, well B = -0.187432768 and well C =
dramatically decrease from 1627 to 1516 BOPD as shown 9.780645161. However, according to Arps (1945), the value of
in Figure 1. exponent decline does not meet the specified conditions (0 ≤ b
≥ 1). Therefore, this method cannot be applied in determining
4.2. Decline Type Curve the right type of decline curve. The next extrapolation method
is the trial error and x2-chisquare test method. The trial error is
To determine the decline curve type more accurately in a method by determining the value of oil production rate (qo)
these three wells case, then there were used two methods, such for all values of decline (b = 0 to b = 1). This method is done
as loss ratio and trial error x2-chisquare test. by calculating the difference in squares between the actual oil
production rate (qo actual) and the prediction of oil production
a. Loss ratio method - well A, well B and well C rate (qo forecast), then divided with qo forecast, so that the
smallest x2 value is obtained which shows the smallest
Determination of decline curve type in well A, well B deviation from the actual qo value.
and well C can be done by using the loss ratio method that is
by dividing oil production rate in a certain period with the loss

Table 5. Results of calculating decline curve type using loss ratio method at well A

WELL A
Time q dq dt D=- a=-
t da=a2-a1 b=-(da/dt)
Month Bopd Bopd Month (dq/dt)/q (qo/(dq/dt))

0 Aug-14 2982
1 Sep-14 2865 117 -1 0.04 24.4871795 24.487 24.487
2 Oct-14 3029 -164 -1 -0.05 -18.4695122 -42.957 -42.957
3 Nov-14 2965 64 -1 0.02 46.3281250 64.798 64.798
4 Dec-14 2885 80 -1 0.03 36.0625000 -10.266 -10.266
5 Jan-15 2436 449 -1 0.18 5.4253898 -30.637 -30.637
b=∑b/n 0.22 5.425
b 1.085077951

Table 6. Result of calculating decline curve type using loss ratio method at well B

WELL A
Time q dq dt D=- a=-
t da=a2-a1 b=-(da/dt)
Month Bopd Bopd Month (dq/dt)/q (qo/(dq/dt))

0 Jan-15 3765.00
- -
1 Feb-15 6194.00 -1 -0.392 -2.550 -2.550
2429.00 2.550020585
2 Mar-15 5393.00 801.00 -1 0.149 6.732833958 9.283 9.283
3 Apr-15 4516.00 877.00 -1 0.194 5.149372862 -1.583 -1.583
4 May-15 2452.00 2941.00 -1 1.199 0.833730024 -5.899 -5.899
b=∑b/n 1.14999961
b -0.187432768

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
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Table 7. Result of calculating decline curve type using loss ratio method at well C

WELL A
Time q dq dt D=- a=-
t da=a2-a1 b=-(da/dt)
Month Bopd Bopd Month (dq/dt)/q (qo/(dq/dt))

0 Aug-14 1,627.00
1 Sep-14 1,561.00 66.00 -1 0.04 23.6515152 23.652 23.652
-
2 Oct-14 1,652.00 -1 -0.06 -18.1538462 -41.805 -41.805
91.00
3 Nov-14 1,621.00 31.00 -1 0.02 52.2903226 70.444 70.444
4 Dec-14 1,547.00 74.00 -1 0.05 20.9054054 -31.385 -31.385
5 Jan-15 1,516.00 31.00 -1 0.02 48.9032258 27.998 27.998
b=∑b/n 0.07 48.903
b 9.780645161

b. Trial error and x2-chisquare test method - well A, 6,326,100 STB. The results of the analysis are obtained,
well B and well C EUR in well A from the beginning of the production well
until November 2016 was 12,485,655.98 STB, for well B
Based on results of table 8, the smallest ∑ X2 is the fit EUR 12 months was 6,003,083 STB and EUR in well C
value 115,799 and the value is obtained from data sum of from the beginning of the production until around 29
august 2014 to January 2015, with values b = 0 and Di = months if calculated from January 2015 to June 2017
0.0404 per month. Results of table 9 show the smallest ∑ amounted to 6,362,696 STB. While ERR in well A that can
X2 is 5331.456 and the value is obtained from data sum of be produced from January 2015 to November 2016 was
January to December 2015, with values of b = 0 and Di = 35,544.554 STB as shown in table 11, ERR well B that can
0.1072 per month. Calculation results of table 10 show the be produced from September 2015 to around 12 months if
smallest ∑ X2 (the fit value) is 6.78 and the value is calculated from January 2015 to January 2016 was
obtained from data sum of August 2014 to January 2015, 25,418.543 STB as shown in table 11 and ERR well C that
with values b = 0 and Di = 0.0141 per month, where the can be produced from January 2015 to June 2017 was
declination curve in the well A, well B and well C are 36,085,029 STB as shown table 13.
exponential decline. According to Ahmed (2010), the type
of exponential decline curve is using equation (1) will mold
10000.00 40000.000
a straight line curve if the production rate is plotted against
time on semi-log paper. Therefore, from the results of 35000.000
calculations using the trial error and x2-chisquare test 1000.00 30000.000
method, the exponential decline curve can be used to 25000.000
QO, BOPD

NP, STB
forecast the production of these three wells. 100.00 20000.000
15000.000
4.3. Forecast of Oil Production Rate and Cumulative Oil
Production at Well A, Well B and Well C 10.00 10000.000
5000.000
The results of qo forecast, Np forecast, EUR till 1.00 0.000
qlimit calculation shown in table 11, table 12 and table 13.
May-15

May-16
Mar-15

Jul-15

Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-15
Nov-15

Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-15

Jan-16

Based on production history, well A started producing oil

from the October 2011 to December 2015. Then proceed
with a decline curve analysis to predict the remaining oil Qo WELL A Np WELL A

reserves, that can be still produced up to the limit of the

production flow rate (qlimit) 1000 BOPD.
The decline analysis data was taken from august 2014 Figure 2. Graph of oil production rate and cumulative production
at well A
to January 2015, where the cumulative amount of
production of well A in January 2015 was 12,450,150.00 The time limit of production that needed to take the
STB, well B was 5,977,290.00 STB and well C was remaining reserves of well A is around 22 months if

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
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calculated from January to November 2016, remaining 835,856.82 STB. While the ERR in reservoir X that can be
reserves of well B is around 12 months if calculated from produced from January 2015 to July 2016 is 82,316.82
September to August 2016 and well C the time limit that STB. The time needed to extract the remaining oil reserves
needed to take remaining reserves is around 29 months if is approximately 17 months calculated from January 2015
calculated from January to June 2015. These can be stated until July 2016. Total RF in reservoir X was 29 %. Due to
that these wells are still feasible to be produced because still this, these wells are still potential to be developed based on
contains sufficient oil reserves. While RF in well A, well B the prevailing prevision of company with economic limit
and well C are 14%, 7% and 7%. Figure 2, Figure 3 and rate 3000 BOPD. Figure 5. Shows the results of total
figure 4.4 show a graph of oil and cumulative production analysis in well A, well B and well C based on field
rates at well A, well B and well C from the beginning of economic limit.
well's production to the flow rate limit production.

9000.00 90000.000
10000.00 30000.000 8000.00 80000.000
7000.00 70000.000
25000.000
1000.00 6000.00 60000.000

QO, BOPD

NP, STB
20000.000
QO, BOPD

NP, STB 5000.00 50000.000

100.00 15000.000 4000.00 40000.000
3000.00 30000.000
10000.000
10.00 2000.00 20000.000
5000.000 1000.00 10000.000
1.00 0.000 0.00 0.000
May-15
Mar-15

Jun-15
Jul-15

Oct-15
Feb-15

Aug-15
Sep-15

Nov-15
Jan-15

Apr-15

Jan-16
Dec-15

Qo WELL B Np WELL B Qo forecast Np forecast

Figure 5. Graph of total Qo and Np forecast versus time at

Figure 3. Graph of oil production rate and cumulative production
reservoir X field Y
at well B

5. Conclusions and Future Research

10000.00 40000.000 5.1. Conclusions
35000.000
1000.00 30000.000 Following conclusions can be drawn, a). The selection of
well trends to be analyze taken from different months such
QO, BOPD

25000.000
NP, STB

100.00 20000.000 as well A, well C start from August 2014 to January 2015,
15000.000 and well B was taken from January 2015 to May 2015,
10.00 10000.000 because they matched the parameter of sorting trends where
5000.000 the selection was based on graph of decreasing production
1.00 0.000 rate. Therefore, the method of determining decline curve
Jul-15

Jul-16
Oct-15

Oct-16
Jan-15
Apr-15

Jan-16
Apr-16

Jan-17
Apr-17

type used trial error and x2-chisquare test methods. It

obtains values b and Di for each well such as: well A (b = 0;
Qo WELL C Np WELL C
Di = 0.0404), well B (b = 0; Di = 0.1072) and well C (b = 0;
Di = 0.0141). Due to this, the types of decline for these
wells are exponential decline curves. b). Based on field
Figure 4. Graph of oil production rate and cumulative production economic limit 3000 BOPD, obtain the total EUR for
at well C reservoir X from well A, well B and well C started
producing until July 2016 was 24,835,856.82 with RF 29%.
While the total amount of oil reserves that can be taking is
82,316.82 STB for 17 months from January 2015 to July
4.4. Analysis of Total Well A, Well B and Well C 2016.
Reservoir X Field Y
Result table 14 show EUR of reservoir X from the
beginning of production until July 2016 with amount 24,

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
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5.2. Future Research Formation Evaluation, 4(03), 421–428. https://doi.org/10.2118/

17051-PA
For well A, well B and well C in reservoir X field Y
still have production life for around 17 months. However, Craft, B.C. and Hawkins, M.F (1991). Applied Petroleum
to get more accurate results, it can be confirmed by using an Reservoir Engineering. Prentice-Hall, Inc.
adequate program and/or application (simulation study),
and if the results obtained are not too different, then it is Dake, L. P. (1978), Fundamentals of Reservoir Engineering.
Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, London New York, Tokyo.
recommended to continue the production activities by
considering economic analysis. Dan, K., Glen, F., Michael, D., Kai, M., (2018); Statistical Decline
Curve Analysis for Automated Forecasting of Production from
Coalbed Methane Wells. Presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Oil
and Gas Conference and Exhibition held in Brisbane, Australia,
Abbreviation
23-25 October 2018. SPE-191985-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/
191985-MS
BHP = bottom hole pressure
BOPD = barrel oil per day Dou, H., Chen, C., Chang, Y. W., Fang, Y., Chen, X., & Cai, W.
BOPM = barrel oil per month (2009). Analysis and Comparison of Decline Models: A Field
BWPD = barrel water per day Case Study for the Intercampo Oil Field, Venezuela. SPE
EOR = enhanced oil recovery Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering, 12(01), 68–78.doi:10.2118
EUR = estimated ultimate recovery /106440-pa
ERR = estimated remaining reserve
MDRT = measured depth rotary table Doublet, L. E., Pande, P. K., McCollum, T. J., & Blasingame, T.
MMSTB = million stock tank barrels A. (1994). Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves--Analysis
OOIP = original oil in place of Oil Well Production Data Using Material Balance Time:
OGIP = original gas in place Application to Field Cases. International Petroleum Conference
RF = recovery factor and Exhibition of Mexico. doi:10.2118/28688-ms
SCF = standard cubic feet
STB = stock tank barrel Duong, A. N. (1989). A New Approach for Decline-Curve
T = time/day Analysis. SPE Production Operations Symposium. doi:10.2118/1
THP = tubing head pressure 8859-ms

Ehlig-Economides, C. A., & Ramey, H. J. (1981). Transient Rate

Decline Analysis for Wells Produced at Constant Pressure.
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AIME, 207(1), 182-191. https://doi.org/10.2118/627-G https://doi.org/10.2118/28628-PA

Bhattacharya, S., & Nikolaou, M. (2013). Analysis of Production Hagoort, J. (2003). Automatic Decline-Curve Analysis of Wells in
History for Unconventional Gas Reservoirs With Statistical Gas Reservoirs. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering, 6 (06),
Methods. SPE Journal, 18(05), 878–896. doi:10.2118/147658-pa 433–440. doi:10.2118/77187-pa

Callard, J. G., & Schenewerk, P. A. (1995). Reservoir Han, D., Kwon, S., Son, H., & Lee, J. (2019). Production
Performance History Matching Using Rate/Cumulative Types Forecasting for Shale Gas Well in Transient Flow Using Machine
Curves. Presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Learning and Decline Curve Analysis. Proceedings of the
Exhibition, Dallas, October 22-25, 1995. SPE-30793-MA. SPE/AAPG/SEG Asia Pacific Unconventional Resources
https://doi.org/10.2118/30793-MS Technology Conference. doi:10.15530/ap-urtec-2019-198198

Chen, H. Y., & Poston, S. W. (1989). Application of a Pseudotime Kaur, B., Haq, B., Ahmed, I., Habibi, D., Phung, V., Al Shehri,
Function To Permit Better Decline-Curve Analysis. SPE D., … Jamaluddin, A. (2020). A Novel Approach in Gas Well

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Performance Monitoring and Forecasting Using Modified Decline Unconventional Resources Technology Conference held in
Curve Analysis. International Petroleum Technology Conference Austin, Texas, USA, 20-22 July 2020. URTEC-2020-3108-MS.
doi:10.2523/iptc-20322 https://doi.org/10.15530/urtec-2020-3108

Kegang, L., Jun, H., (2012); Theoretical Bases of Arps Empirical Onyemaechi, O., Ebuka, A., Leziga, B., Emeka, O., Thankgod, E.,
Decline Curves. Presented at the Abu Dhabi International (2020); Integrated Production Forecasting for Improved Business
Petroleum Exhibition and Conference held in Abu Dhabi, UAE, Planning and Hydrocarbon Asset Management: A Niger Delta
11-14 November 2012. SPE-161767-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118 Brown Asset Experience. SPE-203736-MS. https://doi.org/10.
/161767-MS 2118/203736-MS

Keshinro, O., Aladeitan, Y., Oni, O., Samuel, J.-S., & Adagogo, J. Rodriguez, F., Cinco-Ley H., (1993); A New Model for
(2018). Improved Decline Curve Analysis Equations – Integration Production Decline. SPE Production Operations Symposium,
of Reservoir Properties into Arps Equation. SPE Nigeria Annual Oklahoma City, March 21-23, 1993. SPE 25480.
International Conference and Exhibition. doi:10.2118/193419-ms https://doi.org/10.2118/25480-MS

Kianinejad, A., Kansao, R., Maqui, A., Kadlag, R., Hetz, G., Wheaton, R., (2016); Numerical Simulation Methods for
Ibrahima, F., … Castineira, D. (2019). Artificial-Intelligence- Predicting Reservoir Performance. https: //www.sciencedirect.
Based, Automated Decline Curve Analysis for Reservoir com/topics/engineering/production-data
Performance Management: A Giant Sandstone Reservoir Case
Study. Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Yang, Z. (2009). Analysis of Production Decline in Waterflood
Conference. doi:10.2118/197142-ms Reservoirs. SPE Annual Technical Conference and
Exhibition. https://doi.org/10.2118/124613-MS
Kocoglu, Y., Wigwe, M. E., Sheldon, G., Watson, M. C., (2020);
Machine Learning Based Decline Curve – Spatial Method to Yu, S. (2013). Best Practice of Using Empirical Methods for
Estimate Production Potential of Proposed Well in Production Forecast and EUR Estimation in Tight/Shale Gas
Unconventional Shale Gas Reservoirs. Presented at the Reservoirs. SPE Unconventional Resources Conference
Canada. https://doi.org/10.2118/167118-MS

Appendix

Table 3. Oil production profile data at Field Y

Time WELL A WELL B WELL C

(Months) Qo (stb/d) NP Oil (stb/m) Qo (stb/d) NP Oil (stb/m) Qo (stb/d) NP Oil (stb/m)
Oct-11 12160 364800 7145 214350 12065 361950
Nov-11 12017 725310 7897 451260 13880 778350
Dec-11 17499 1250280 9751 743790 11955 1137000
Jan-12 19169 1825350 16104 1226910 7945 1375350
Feb-12 18901 2392380 17322 1746570 7169 1590420
Mar-12 19193 2968170 17869 2282640 7164 1805340
Apr-12 19246 3545550 14151 2707170 8172 2050500
May-12 18069 4087620 7895 2944020 12000 2410500
Jun-12 19311 4666950 7565 3170970 11217 2747010
Jul-12 19976 5266230 6715 3372420 12457 3120720
Aug-12 20414 5878650 5721 3544050 9302 3399780
Sep-12 20736 6500730 4356 3674730 9993 3699570
Oct-12 19512 7086090 4119 3798300 8229 3946440
Nov-12 18618 7644630 3771 3911430 7423 4169130
Dec-12 16652 8144190 4496 4046310 5753 4341720
Jan-13 13818 8558730 5366 4207290 5549 4508190
Feb-13 13557 8965440 5318 4366830 5275 4666440

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
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Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

Mar-13 12432 9338400 5397 4528740 4771 4809570

Apr-13 11624 9687120 5455 4692390 4356 4940250
May-13 10445 10000470 4419 4824960 3957 5058960
Jun-13 9138 10274610 3760 4937760 3552 5165520
Jul-13 5528 10440450 1900 4994760 1997 5225430
Aug-13 6133 10624440 3222 5091420 3355 5326080
Sep-13 5897 10801350 3120 5185020 3217 5422590
Oct-13 5150 10955850 2725 5266770 2813 5506980
Nov-13 4877 11102160 2563 5343660 2643 5586270
Dec-13 4741 11244390 2508 5418900 2589 5663940
Jan-14 4484 11378910 2372 5490060 2447 5737350
Feb-14 3993 11498700 2113 5553450 2179 5802720
Mar-14 3708 11609940 1962 5612310 2024 5863440
Apr-14 3514 11715360 1863 5668200 1922 5921100
May-14 2785 11798910 1472 5712360 1518 5966640
Jun-14 1814 11853330 873 5738550 967 5995650
Jul-14 2732 11935290 1445 5781900 1491 6040380
Aug-14 2982 12024750 1578 5829240 1627 6089190
Sep-14 2865 12110700 1170 5864340 1561 6136020
Oct-14 3029 12201570 0 5864340 1652 6185580
Nov-14 2965 12290520 0 5864340 1621 6234210
Dec-14 2885 12377070 0 5864340 1547 6280620
Jan-15 2436 12450150 3765 5977290 1516 6326100
Feb-15 2591 12527880 6194 6163110 1464 6370020
Mar-15 2471 12602010 5393 6324900 1424 6412740
Apr-15 2363 12672900 4516 6460380 1335 6452790
May-15 1497 12717810 2452 6533940 821 6477420
Jun-15 0 12717810 0 6533940 0 6477420
Jul-15 0 12717810 991 6563670 328 6487260
Aug-15 1591 12765540 2643 6642960 1048 6518700
Sep-15 188 12771180 303 6652050 130 6522600
Oct-15 1300 12810180 2102 6715110 1073 6554790
Nov-15 1423 12852870 2449 6788580 1049 6586260
Dec-15 467 12866880 836 6813660 337 6596370

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
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Table 8. Calculation results of decline curve type using trial error and x2-chisquare test method at well A

WELL A
t 0 1 2 3 4 5 Cumulative
Time
Months Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15
qo Actual, X2
b Di 2982.00 2865 3029 2965 2885 2436
bopd
qo, bopd 2982.000 2863.793 2750.271 2641.249 2536.550 2436.000
0 0.0404
X2 0.000 0.001 28.248 39.684 47.867 0.000 115.799
qo, bopd 2982.000 2862.852 2748.920 2639.955 2535.723 2436.000
0.1 0.0409
X2 0.000 0.002 28.537 40.021 48.110 0.000 116.670
qo, bopd 2982.000 2861.904 2747.566 2638.665 2534.904 2436.000
0.2 0.0413
X2 0.000 0.003 28.827 40.359 48.352 0.000 117.542
qo, bopd 2982.000 2860.949 2746.209 2637.380 2534.091 2436.000
0.3 0.0417
X2 0.000 0.006 29.120 40.698 48.592 0.000 118.416
qo, bopd 2982.000 2859.986 2744.849 2636.098 2533.285 2436.000
0.4 0.0421
X2 0.000 0.009 29.416 41.036 48.831 0.000 119.292
qo, bopd 2982.000 2859.017 2743.487 2634.822 2532.487 2436.000
0.5 0.0426
X2 0.000 0.013 29.713 41.376 49.069 0.000 120.170
qo, bopd 2982.000 2858.040 2742.123 2633.550 2531.695 2436.000
0.6 0.0430
X2 0.000 0.017 30.013 41.715 49.305 0.000 121.050
qo, bopd 2982.000 2857.055 2740.757 2632.283 2530.910 2436.000
0.7 0.0435
X2 0.000 0.022 30.314 42.055 49.539 0.000 121.931
qo, bopd 2982.000 2856.064 2739.388 2631.020 2530.132 2436.000
0.8 0.0439
X2 0.000 0.028 30.618 42.395 49.773 0.000 122.814
qo, bopd 2982.000 2855.065 2738.018 2629.763 2529.361 2436.000
0.9 0.0444
X2 0.000 0.035 30.924 42.735 50.004 0.000 123.698
qo, bopd 2982.000 2854.059 2736.646 2628.511 2528.596 2436.000
1 0.0448
X2 0.000 0.042 31.232 43.076 50.235 0.000 124.585

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
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Table 9. Calculation results of trial error and x2-chisquare test method at well B

WELL B
t 0 1 2 3 4 Cumulative
Time
Months Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
qo Actual, X2
b Di 3765.00 6194 5393 4516 2452
bopd
qo, bopd 3765.000 3382.236 3038.384 2729.491 2452.000
0 0.1072
X2 0.000 2337.513 1824.724 1169.308 0.000 5331.546
qo, bopd 3765.000 3376.368 3031.408 2724.822 2452.000
0.1 0.1095
X2 0.000 2351.359 1839.777 1177.441 0.000 5368.577
qo, bopd 3765.000 3370.428 3024.451 2720.230 2452.000
0.2 0.1119
X2 0.000 2365.445 1854.890 1185.485 0.000 5405.820
qo, bopd 3765.000 3364.417 3017.517 2715.712 2452.000
0.3 0.1144
X2 0.000 2379.771 1870.055 1193.439 0.000 5443.264
qo, bopd 3765.000 3358.336 3010.607 2711.271 2452.000
0.4 0.1170
X2 0.000 2394.337 1885.266 1201.300 0.000 5480.902
qo, bopd 3765.000 3352.188 3003.727 2706.904 2452.000
0.5 0.1196
X2 0.000 2409.142 1900.515 1209.066 0.000 5518.723
qo, bopd 3765.000 3345.973 2996.877 2702.613 2452.000
0.6 0.1223
X2 0.000 2424.185 1915.796 1216.738 0.000 5556.719
qo, bopd 3765.000 3339.693 2990.062 2698.397 2452.000
0.7 0.1250
X2 0.000 2439.465 1931.101 1224.312 0.000 5594.878
qo, bopd 3765.000 3333.351 2983.284 2694.256 2452.000
0.8 0.1279
X2 0.000 2454.981 1946.422 1231.788 0.000 5633.192
qo, bopd 3765.000 3326.948 2976.546 2690.188 2452.000
0.9 0.1308
X2 0.000 2470.730 1961.754 1239.165 0.000 5671.649
qo, bopd 3765.000 3320.486 2969.850 2686.195 2452.000
1 0.1339
X2 0.000 2486.710 1977.087 1246.442 0.000 5710.240

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

Table 10. Calculation results of trial error and x2-chisquare test method at well C

WELL C
t 0 1 2 3 4 5 Cumulative
Time
Months Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15
qo Actual, X2
b Di 1627.00 1561 1652 1621 1547 1516
bopd
qo, bopd 1627.000 1604.168 1581.657 1559.461 1537.577 1516.000
0 0.0141
X2 0.000 1.162 3.128 2.428 0.058 0.000 6.78
qo, bopd 1627.000 1604.104 1581.562 1559.368 1537.516 1516.000
0.1 0.0142
X2 0.000 1.158 3.137 2.436 0.059 0.000 6.79
qo, bopd 1627.000 1604.040 1581.467 1559.274 1537.455 1516.000
0.2 0.0142
X2 0.000 1.155 3.146 2.443 0.059 0.000 6.80
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.975 1581.372 1559.181 1537.394 1516.000
0.3 0.0143
X2 0.000 1.151 3.154 2.451 0.060 0.000 6.82
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.910 1581.277 1559.088 1537.333 1516.000
0.4 0.0143
X2 0.000 1.148 3.163 2.459 0.061 0.000 6.83
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.845 1581.182 1558.995 1537.272 1516.000
0.5 0.0144
X2 0.000 1.145 3.172 2.466 0.062 0.000 6.84
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.780 1581.087 1558.902 1537.212 1516.000
0.6 0.0144
X2 0.000 1.141 3.181 2.474 0.062 0.000 6.86
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.715 1580.991 1558.809 1537.151 1516.000
0.7 0.0145
X2 0.000 1.138 3.189 2.481 0.063 0.000 6.87
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.650 1580.896 1558.717 1537.091 1516.000
0.8 0.0145
X2 0.000 1.134 3.198 2.489 0.064 0.000 6.88
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.584 1580.800 1558.624 1537.031 1516.000
0.9 0.0146
X2 0.000 1.131 3.207 2.496 0.065 0.000 6.90
qo, bopd 1627.000 1603.518 1580.705 1558.532 1536.972 1516.000
1 0.0146
X2 0.000 1.127 3.216 2.504 0.065 0.000 6.91

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

Table 11. Forecast of oil production rate and cumulative oil production at well A

WELL A
q 2436 Np (Jan-15) 12,450,150.00
b= 0
EUR
Time Months Di= 0.0404
qo (forecast) Np(forecast) STB MMSTB
BOPD STB
0 Jan-15 2436.00 0.000 12,450,150.00 12.45
1 Feb-15 2339.55 2387.449 12,452,537.45 12.45
2 Mar-15 2246.91 4680.367 12,454,830.37 12.45
3 Apr-15 2157.95 6882.498 12,457,032.50 12.46
4 May-15 2072.50 8997.435 12,459,147.44 12.46
5 Jun-15 1990.44 11028.633 12,461,178.63 12.46
6 Jul-15 1911.63 12979.405 12,463,129.40 12.46
7 Aug-15 1835.94 14852.937 12,465,002.94 12.47
8 Sep-15 1763.25 16652.287 12,466,802.29 12.47
9 Oct-15 1693.43 18380.391 12,468,530.39 12.47
10 Nov-15 1626.38 20040.072 12,470,190.07 12.47
11 Dec-15 1561.98 21634.038 12,471,784.04 12.47
12 Jan-16 1500.14 23164.892 12,473,314.89 12.47
13 Feb-16 1440.74 24635.131 12,474,785.13 12.47
14 Mar-16 1383.69 26047.157 12,476,197.16 12.48
15 Apr-16 1328.91 27403.274 12,477,553.27 12.48
16 May-16 1276.29 28705.696 12,478,855.70 12.48
17 Jun-16 1225.76 29956.548 12,480,106.55 12.48
18 Jul-16 1177.22 31157.873 12,481,307.87 12.48
19 Aug-16 1130.61 32311.633 12,482,461.63 12.48
20 Sep-16 1085.84 33419.709 12,483,569.71 12.48
21 Oct-16 1042.85 34483.911 12,484,633.91 12.48
22 Nov-16 1001.56 35505.976 12,485,655.98 12.49
23 Dec-16 961.90 36487.573 12,486,637.57 12.49

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
Available online at: https://www.tljes.org/index.php/tljes/issue/archive

Table 12. Forecast of oil production rate and cumulative oil production at well B

WELL B

q 3765 Np (Jan-15) 5,977,290.00

b= 0
EUR
Time Months Di= 0.1072
qo Np
STB MMSTB
(forecast) (forecast)
BOPD STB

0 Jan-15 3765.00 0.000 5,977,290.00 5.98

1 Feb-15 3382.27 3570.218 5,980,860.22 5.98

2 Mar-15 3038.45 6777.509 5,984,067.51 5.98

3 Apr-15 2729.58 9658.766 5,986,948.77 5.99

4 May-15 2452.11 12247.131 5,989,537.13 5.99

5 Jun-15 2202.84 14572.379 5,991,862.38 5.99

6 Jul-15 1978.91 16661.256 5,993,951.26 5.99

7 Aug-15 1777.75 18537.791 5,995,827.79 6.00

8 Sep-15 1597.03 20223.568 5,997,513.57 6.00

9 Oct-15 1434.69 21737.979 5,999,027.98 6.00

10 Nov-15 1288.85 23098.444 6,000,388.44 6.00

11 Dec-15 1157.83 24320.612 6,001,610.61 6.00

12 Jan-16 1040.13 25418.543 6,002,708.54 6.00

13 Feb-16 934.40 26404.864 6,003,694.86 6.00

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
Vol.2, Issue.1, pp.32-46, 2021
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Table 13. Forecast of oil production rate and cumulative oil production at well C

WELL C
q 1516 Np (Jan-15) 6,326,100.00
b= 0 EUR
Time Months Di= 0.0141
qo
Np(forecast) STB MMSTB
(forecast)
BOPD STB
0 Jan-15 1516.00 0.000 6,326,100.00 6.33
1 Feb-15 1494.77 1505.362 6,327,605.36 6.33
2 Mar-15 1473.85 2989.648 6,329,089.65 6.33
3 Apr-15 1453.21 4453.152 6,330,553.15 6.33
4 May-15 1432.86 5896.165 6,331,996.17 6.33
5 Jun-15 1412.80 7318.975 6,333,418.97 6.33
6 Jul-15 1393.02 8721.864 6,334,821.86 6.33
7 Aug-15 1373.52 10105.111 6,336,205.11 6.34
8 Sep-15 1354.29 11468.991 6,337,568.99 6.34
9 Oct-15 1335.33 12813.775 6,338,913.77 6.34
10 Nov-15 1316.63 14139.731 6,340,239.73 6.34
11 Dec-15 1298.20 15447.122 6,341,547.12 6.34
12 Jan-16 1280.02 16736.208 6,342,836.21 6.34
13 Feb-16 1262.10 18007.246 6,344,107.25 6.34
14 Mar-16 1244.43 19260.487 6,345,360.49 6.35
15 Apr-16 1227.00 20496.182 6,346,596.18 6.35
16 May-16 1209.82 21714.576 6,347,814.58 6.35
17 Jun-16 1192.89 22915.911 6,349,015.91 6.35
18 Jul-16 1176.18 24100.427 6,350,200.43 6.35
19 Aug-16 1159.72 25268.357 6,351,368.36 6.35
20 Sep-16 1143.48 26419.936 6,352,519.94 6.35
21 Oct-16 1127.47 27555.391 6,353,655.39 6.35
22 Nov-16 1111.68 28674.948 6,354,774.95 6.35
23 Dec-16 1096.12 29778.831 6,355,878.83 6.36
24 Jan-17 1080.77 30867.258 6,356,967.26 6.36
25 Feb-17 1065.64 31940.446 6,358,040.45 6.36
26 Mar-17 1050.72 32998.608 6,359,098.61 6.36
27 Apr-17 1036.01 34041.955 6,360,141.95 6.36
28 May-17 1021.50 35070.694 6,361,170.69 6.36
29 Jun-17 1007.20 36085.029 6,362,185.03 6.36
30 Jul-17 993.10 37085.163 6,363,185.16 6.36

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Timor-Leste Journal of Engineering and Science
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Table 14. Total forecast of Qo and oil Np well A, well B, well C

WELL (A+B+C)

Np
qo (forecast) EUR
Time Months (forecast)

BOPD STB STB

0 Jan-15 7717.00 0.000 24,753,540.00
1 Mar-15 7216.59 7463.029 24,761,003.03
2 Apr-15 6759.21 14447.524 24,767,987.52
3 May-15 6340.74 20994.415 24,774,534.42
4 Jun-15 5957.48 27140.732 24,780,680.73
5 Jul-15 5606.09 32919.987 24,786,459.99
6 Aug-15 5283.57 38362.525 24,791,902.53
7 Sep-15 4987.21 43495.838 24,797,035.84
8 Oct-15 4714.57 48344.845 24,801,884.85
9 Nov-15 4463.45 52932.145 24,806,472.15
10 Dec-15 4231.86 57278.247 24,810,818.25
11 Jan-16 4018.01 61401.773 24,814,941.77
12 Feb-16 3820.29 65319.642 24,818,859.64
13 Mar-16 3637.24 69047.241 24,822,587.24
14 Apr-16 3467.54 72598.566 24,826,138.57
15 May-16 3310.00 75986.364 24,829,526.36
16 Jun-16 3163.54 79222.250 24,832,762.25
17 Jul-16 3027.21 82316.819 24,835,856.82
18 Aug-16 2900.11 85279.740 24,838,819.74

46