Racing toward Tragedy?

Racing toward Adam P. Liff and

G. John Ikenberry
Tragedy?
China’s Rise, Military Competition in the
Asia Paciªc, and the Security Dilemma

T
hroughout the post–
Cold War period, scholars and policymakers have widely considered the Asia
Paciªc “ripe for rivalry” and at risk of intensifying military competition.1 De-
velopments over the past decade have deepened these expectations. A chang-
ing distribution of material capabilities owing primarily to China’s rise,
coupled with regionwide economic growth, surging military spending, and
military modernization, seems to have created an even more volatile climate
and a potentially vicious cycle of arming and rearming. Together, the pace and
scale of change create uncertainty about the future, which in turn exacerbates
extant insecurities. In a reºection of these regional trends, many observers sug-
gest that an arms race is under way in the Asia Paciªc, and some point to the
security dilemma as driving this competition. But is this the case? What are
the forces driving the intensiªcation of military competition in the region?
In the past, several cases of rising powers, rivalries between major powers,
and arms races fomented “hot” or “cold” wars that were ªnancially costly and
devastating for international peace, stability, and the global economy.2 Were ei-

Adam P. Liff is Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations at Indiana University’s School of
Global and International Studies, a postdoctoral fellow in the Princeton-Harvard China and the World
Program, and Associate-in-Research at Harvard University’s Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies and
Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. G. John Ikenberry is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and Inter-
national Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of
Public and International Affairs. His most recent book is Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and
Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton University Press, 2011).

The authors thank Thomas Christensen, Kiichi Fujiwara, Charles Glaser, Robert Jervis, Astrid
Tuminez, Daojiong Zha, and the anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on earlier drafts.

1. Aaron L. Friedberg, “Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia,” International
Security, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Winter 1994/93), pp. 5–33. Two decades later, Friedberg described Asia as
experiencing a “struggle for mastery.” See Aaron L. Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China,
America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia (New York: W.W. Norton, 2012). Past scholarship exam-
ining security dilemmas in the Asia Paciªc includes Thomas J. Christensen, “China, the U.S.-Japan
Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia,” International Security, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Spring
1999), pp. 49–80; Thomas J. Christensen, “The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Preventing
Conºict across the Taiwan Strait,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 4 (Autumn 2002), pp. 7–21;
Seiichiro Takagi, “Reisengo No Nichibei Domei To Hokuto Ajia—Anzen Hosho Jirenmaron No
Shiten Kara” [Post–Cold War Japan-U.S. alliance and Northeast Asia—From the perspective of se-
curity dilemma theory], Kokusai Mondai, September 1999, pp. 2–15; and Sahoko Shiga, “The Secu-
rity Dilemma and the Strategic Triangle in East Asia after the Cold War,” M.A. thesis, Harvard
University, 2002.
2. The dangers and instabilities generated by rising states and power transitions, or what E.H.

International Security, Vol. 39, No. 2 (Fall 2014), pp. 52–91, doi:10.1162/ISEC_a_00176
© 2014 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

52
 Racing toward Tragedy? 53

ther type of conºict to occur in the Asia Paciªc today, its effects could be disas-
trous for the region and impose catastrophic costs on the global economy and
international order. Yet China’s growing power and regional relationships,
marked by widespread uncertainties and insecurities about the future, appear
to be important facts of life in the contemporary Asia Paciªc. Political frictions
and mistrust among major actors in this unfolding drama are exacerbating the
effects of objectively measurable and rapid material shifts. To make matters
worse, long-standing disputes over maritime boundaries and territorial
claims, not to mention history, fester. For evidence of the disturbing trend line,
in 2012 aggregate military spending in Asia surpassed that of Europe for the
ªrst time in modern history.3
At the center of this drama is the rise of China and China’s relationship with
the United States. Rapid economic growth across the Asia Paciªc and China’s
surging investment in military power—itself aimed in large part at mitigating
the military superiority of the United States and some key U.S. allies—have
been central drivers of Washington’s so-called rebalance toward the Asia
Paciªc. In response, Beijing cries foul, bemoans alleged U.S. efforts to “contain
its peaceful rise”—a popular meme in Chinese commentary on U.S. strategic
intentions toward Asia—further ramps up its military spending and bolsters
its warªghting capabilities. A vicious, unavoidable, and tragic action-reaction
cycle is born.
Or is it? Given the apparently increasing volatility of the contemporary Asia
Paciªc, a key question for scholars and policymakers is whether states in the
region can ªnd ways to engage in strategic restraint, peacefully address con-
ºicts of interests, and manage nascent rivalries amid China’s rapid rise. Or are
these actors merely players in a structurally determined tragedy, inevitably
locked in a web of escalating hostility and arms competition?
To begin to answer this question, we examine the evolving patterns of mili-
tary competition in the Asia Paciªc and explore the underlying drivers. We fo-
cus primarily on assessing the extent to which worsening regional dynamics
ºow from one possible major driver of nascent competition: emerging security

Carr has called the “problem of peaceful change,” are the subject of a rich and wide-ranging litera-
ture. For classic statements, see Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis, 1919–1939: An Introduction to the Study
of International Relations (New York: Harper and Row, 1964), pp. 208–223; A.F.K. Organski and
Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); and Robert Gilpin, War
and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).
3. Myra MacDonald, “Asia’s Defense Spending Overtakes Europe’s: IISS,” Reuters, March 14,
2013.
 International Security 39:2 54

dilemmas brought about by the combination of an anarchic international sys-

tem and China’s rapidly growing material power and military capabilities.
Security dilemmas are situations in which both sides have defensive, or status
quo, intentions and would prefer to avoid costly and destabilizing competition
and mutual arming.4 Yet because of insecurity and uncertainty about the
other’s true intentions, each side concludes that it has no alternative. The re-
sult is a costly and potentially disastrous action-reaction sequence that could
be mitigated if only both sides were able to engage in more credible restraint
and signal their defensive intentions. Yet under anarchy this is difªcult to do.
The article argues the following. First, there is already some evidence of se-
curity dilemma–driven military competition in the Asia Paciªc, which could
worsen signiªcantly in the near future. These dynamics manifest despite the
available evidence showing that the region is not now engaged in a full-scale
arms race. Second, our empirical analysis ªnds that the security dilemma is
not the only cause of action-reaction-type military buildups taking place today.
In several cases, military competition is also, or primarily, driven by clearly
identiªable conºicts of interest where one or both sides is/are perceived by the
other to seek de facto changes to, not maintenance of, the status quo. The dis-
tinction between these dynamics and security dilemma–driven action-reaction
spirals has both theoretical and practical significance. Third, we argue that
“arming”—traditionally conceived of as defense budget increases and quanti-
tative arms buildups—is not the only type of state behavior that can cause or
be fueled by a security dilemma. Speciªcally, both government rhetoric and
many of the measures that states are adopting to enhance their military
capabilities, while in most cases stopping short of full-scale quantitative
arms buildups, can also affect assessments of one another’s intentions and
thus create or exacerbate an existing, destabilizing spiral. Fourth, one or both
sides could adopt policies to ameliorate extant security dilemmas. Although
not panaceas, these measures could reduce the perceived need for mutual arm-
ing, in addition to signiªcantly reducing the risks of miscalculation or unin-
tended escalation.
This article is structured as follows. First, we brieºy examine contemporary
affairs in the Asia Paciªc, noting that a number of recent developments sug-

4. Arguably the two most inºuential works on the security dilemma are John H. Herz, “Idealist
Internationalism and the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 2, No. 2 (January 1950), pp. 157–
180; and Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2
(January 1978), pp. 167–214.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 55

gest that the region is ripe for, or may already be experiencing, severe security
dilemma–driven dynamics, even arms races. Second, we lay out the basic
propositions of security dilemma theory, generating models with which to em-
pirically investigate potential security dilemma dynamics unfolding in the re-
gion and to distinguish them from other types of action-reaction dynamics.
We summarize existing research on how to ameliorate the security dilemma
and present two basic models of military competition, each with different im-
plications for policy. Third, based on the above theoretical elaborations of the
security dilemma, we construct an empirical test to evaluate the drivers of con-
temporary military competition in the Asia Paciªc. Fourth, we provide an em-
pirical survey of the causes and consequences of military competition in the
region, assessing the extent to which the security dilemma logic is at work.
Finally, we reºect on the implications of our ªndings for security dilemma the-
ory and its applicability to the contemporary Asia Paciªc. We close with a brief
discussion of measures that states in the region could adopt to mitigate and to
more effectively manage military competition in a manner that can limit costs,
instability, and the likelihood of escalation to war.

China’s Rise and Worsening Military Competition in the Asia Paciªc

The Asia Paciªc is a region in geopolitical transition. For decades, regional sta-
bility has been maintained primarily through a U.S.-led alliance system. Since
the turn of the millennium, however, the shifting political and economic ter-
rain has led many observers to expect an upsurge in military competition,
arms races, and the possibility of a catastrophic military conºict.
The rapid transformation of the region is not exclusively a story about
China. Indeed, the economies and militaries of the countries in Southeast Asia,
as well as China’s large neighbors India and Russia, have also experienced
rapid growth. Meanwhile, U.S. allies South Korea and Australia are signiª-
cantly strengthening their militaries and becoming increasingly active players
in regional security. For its part, Japan remains the world’s third-largest econ-
omy, has considerable wealth and military capabilities, and has begun to
gradually increase its defense spending. More generally, Japan’s traditionally
low-key security proªle appears to be undergoing changes of potentially im-
mense long-term signiªcance.
Yet the rapid rise of China, the resulting shift in the distribution of regional
material capabilities, and uncertainty about China’s future trajectory are argu-
ably the main forces driving concerns about possible arms races, now or in the
 International Security 39:2 56

future. In 2010 China became the world’s second-largest economy. Its ofªcial
defense spending has nearly quintupled in nominal renminbi terms since 2002
and now ranks second only to that of the (globally distributed) U.S. military.
China’s defense spending remains largely constant as a percentage of its (rap-
idly growing) gross domestic product, though that long-term trend has re-
versed itself for the last several years, including a twice-as-fast projected
increase in 2014.5 Widespread concerns about the objective reality of China’s
rapidly increasing military capabilities are exacerbated by its low military
transparency, which deepens general uncertainty and speciªc worries about its
capabilities and intentions.
China’s worsening relations with its neighbors may exemplify the challenge
that any state with such rapidly increasing material capabilities has in signal-
ing restraint. As China’s leaders state, Beijing may be modernizing its military
forces primarily to compensate for decades of neglect, and its leaders may sin-
cerely view its policies toward its neighbors as reactive and defensive. Yet the
more important point is that regardless of China’s actual intentions, to other
states the objective reality of Beijing’s growing military power, coupled with
its rapidly expanding military capabilities and recent policies vis-à-vis dis-
puted territory and features on its periphery, appear provocative and newly
“assertive,” even aggressive.6 As a case in point, however controversial and
destabilizing, China’s vast claims over islands and features in the South
and East China Seas predate its current “rise” by decades. Yet as China’s
military capabilities grow, Beijing is increasingly capable of asserting these
claims in a manner that it was unable to only a few years ago. Similarly, the
growing frequency and geographical scope of its patrols and exercises worsen
tensions by creating far more opportunities for a clash or incident, as Chinese

5. Adam P. Liff and Andrew S. Erickson, “Demystifying China’s Defence Spending: Less Mysteri-
ous in the Aggregate,” China Quarterly, Vol. 216 (December 2013), pp. 805–830; and Andrew S.
Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “The Budget This Time: Taking the Measure of China’s Defense
Spending,” ASAN Forum, Vol. 2, No. 2 (April 2014), http://www.theasanforum.org/the-budget-
this-time-taking-the-measure-of-chinas-defense-spending/.
6. “China Taking ‘More Aggressive’ Stance at Sea a Cause for Concern, Mullen Says,” Agence
France-Presse, July 25, 2010. Japan’s 2011 white paper called China’s behavior toward its neigh-
bors “assertive” and expressed “concern” over “China’s future direction.” The Chinese govern-
ment dismissed these “irresponsible comments” and encouraged Japan to reºect on its own
military’s past. See Chris Buckley, “China Accuses Japan of Exaggerating It As a Military Threat,”
Reuters, August 4, 2011; and Yorhee Koh, “Japan Sharpens Rhetoric on China, Calling It ‘Asser-
tive’ for First Time,” Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2011. For a recent critique of the “assertiveness
meme,” see Alastair Iain Johnston, “How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness?” In-
ternational Security, Vol. 37, No. 4 (Spring 2013), pp. 7–48.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 57

vessels and aircraft increasingly cross paths with foreign militaries in interna-
tional waters.
A decade ago, China’s leaders appeared far more sensitive to the dilemma
their country faces as a rising power; the slogan “peaceful rise” and China’s
engagement and reassurance of neighboring states of its peaceful intentions
encapsulated this self-awareness.7 At least seen from Beijing, China’s inten-
tions may continue to be “peaceful” and its military policy “defensive”—both
now and in the future—as its leaders often assert. Yet its future intentions are
unknowable—even to the most prescient of Chinese leaders. Under anarchy
and in the context of Beijing’s rapid enhancement of military capabilities, this
uncertainty can create or exacerbate regional instability. To the extent that
China’s intentions are truly peaceful and defensive, if Beijing is unable to cred-
ibly convey them, its rise is likely to increasingly elicit backlash and counter-
balancing from its neighbors. The perhaps unintended result will be to worsen,
rather than enhance, China’s security—even to the point of self-encirclement.
The net result is high costs all around—in terms of wasteful military spending
and an increasingly unstable region even if a military conºict does not occur—
that leave all parties worse off.
As in any strategic interaction, it takes two to tango. Indeed, the United
States and its Asia Paciªc security allies and partners are engaging in extensive
efforts to hedge against both uncertainty and Beijing’s speciªc policies by bal-
ancing against China.8 Despite severe domestic pressure to reduce defense
spending, Washington has enhanced what Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
called “forward-deployed” diplomacy, strengthening security ties with and
among its allies and partners and generally buttressing its military presence
throughout the Asia Paciªc.9 Seen from Washington, the associated policies
are, inter alia, a defensive reaction to China’s growing power and its policies.
They are intended to bolster the credibility of the long-standing role of the
United States in the region as “resident power,” security provider, and leader.
Yet, regardless of Washington’s actual intentions, the associated policies and

7. See Avery Goldstein, “An Emerging China’s Emerging Grand Strategy: A Neo-Bismarckian
Turn?” in G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastanduno, eds., International Relations Theory and the
Asia-Paciªc (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), pp. 57–106.
8. Adam P. Liff, “Whither the Balancers? Reconsidering Methods and Metrics in Contemporary
Security Studies and Secondary State Military Balancing Responses to China’s Rise,” working pa-
per, Princeton University, 2014.
9. Hillary Clinton, “America’s Paciªc Century,” Foreign Policy, November 2011, http://www
.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_paciªc_century.
 International Security 39:2 58

rhetoric may appear threatening to Beijing and, consequently, could trigger

unwanted defensive counterresponses.10
In short, at least on the surface, deepening political tensions and military com-
petition unfolding in the contemporary Asia Paciªc appear to be driven largely
by action-reaction dynamics emblematic of a structurally driven security di-
lemma. Military competition, however, can have different causes and take dif-
ferent forms. To what extent is the Asia Paciªc experiencing a security dilemma?

the security dilemma in theory

The security dilemma is a type of insecurity dynamic between states that fo-
ments military competition and arms races, even wars, that each state would
prefer to avoid if only it could receive credible commitments of the other side’s
peaceful, or status quo, intentions.11 It is a consequence of an anarchic, decen-
tralized, and uncertain strategic environment. The states involved are not pur-
suing offensive or revisionist security strategies and do not seek domination or
conquest; rather, they are status quo security-seekers.12 Both sides would pre-
fer to spend limited resources improving domestic welfare and engaging in
other nonmilitary pursuits. Yet mistrust and uncertainty about intentions lead
one side to interpret the other’s defensive measures as offensive—and there-
fore threatening. The other side responds in kind. This interaction inadver-
tently stimulates a tragic action-reaction spiral of military competition that
leaves both sides poorer and less secure.
Scholars have used the security dilemma, a foundational concept in interna-
tional relations theory, to explain some of the most consequential (and tragic)
developments of the modern era, including the origins of World War I and pat-
terns of conºict and cooperation during and after the Cold War.13 Some schol-

10. A former vice minister at the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs warns, “Should this ill-
thought-out policy of rebalancing continue and the security environment worsen, an arms race
would be inevitable.” See He Yafei, “The Trust Deªcit: How the U.S. ‘Pivot’ to Asia Looks from
Beijing” Foreign Policy, May 13, 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/13/how
_china_sees_the_us_pivot_to_asia.
11. For the classic statement of the security dilemma, see Herz, “Idealist Internationalism and the
Security Dilemma,” p. 157. See also John H. Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age (New
York: Columbia University Press, 1959), pp. 231–243.
12. The distinction between revisionist and status quo states is well established in the literature.
Status quo powers seek to preserve and protect values they already possess, whereas revisionist
powers, as Randall L. Schweller notes, “value what they covet more than what they possess. . . .
They will employ military force to change the status quo and to extend their values.” See
Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Proªt: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security,
Vol. 19, No. 1 (Summer 1994), p. 105. Gilpin identiªes revisionist states as those that aim at “sys-
temic change,” that is, changes relating to the rules of diplomacy, security arrangements, and the
hierarchy of prestige. See Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, p. 34.
13. See Robert Jervis, “Was the Cold War a Security Dilemma?” Journal of Cold War Studies, Vol. 3,
 Racing toward Tragedy? 59

ars have argued that NATO and the U.S. military presence have served to
“pacify” old European rivals, providing security and reducing the uncertainty
and mistrust that would otherwise spark security dilemma–driven competi-
tion and conºict.14 In the Asia Paciªc, the U.S.-Japan alliance has arguably
ameliorated security dilemma–driven competition by reducing Japan’s desire
to invest heavily in a major military buildup, a development that, even if seen
by Tokyo as defensive, might trigger destabilizing countermeasures from its
neighbors, especially China.15
Past scholarship has sought to identify circumstances and variables that
create or intensify the security dilemma. Robert Jervis’s seminal study pro-
vides the most sophisticated and elegant statement of the theory.16 Jervis
identiªes the difªculty of distinguishing between offensive and defensive
postures—and weapons—as the most important variable affecting the inci-
dence and intensity of the security dilemma. A secondary variable is the de-
gree to which the technologies associated with offensive weapons give the
state that possesses them an advantage in war. Jervis argues that the secu-
rity dilemma will be in full evidence and its consequences most disastrous
when states cannot distinguish between offensive and defensive forces—
and when the offense has the advantage. On the other hand, the distinguish-
ability of offensive and defensive forces and the defense having the advantage
is stabilizing and facilitates opportunities for agreements that buttress mutual
security. Between these two extremes, other possibilities exist. Jervis’s key in-
sight, however, is that the more difªcult it is for states to distinguish between
the offensive and defensive measures of adversaries, the greater the intensity
of the security dilemma will be.
In another effort to explain the logic of the security dilemma, Charles Glaser
examines the character of the adversarial states and the importance of subjec-
tive perceptions in determining outcomes.17 In Glaser’s view, the key variable

No. 1 (Winter 2001), pp. 36–60; Jack L. Snyder, “Perceptions of the Security Dilemma in 1914,” in
Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Balti-
more, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), pp. 153–179; Melvyn P. Lefºer, A Preponderance
of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War (Redwood City, Calif.: Stan-
ford University Press, 1992); Raymond L. Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Rela-
tions from Nixon to Reagan, rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1994); and Alan
Collins, The Security Dilemma and the End of the Cold War (New York: St. Martin’s, 1997).
14. Josef Joffe, “Europe’s American Paciªer,” Foreign Policy, No. 54 (April 1984), pp. 64–82. See also
Stephen G. Brooks, G. John Ikenberry, and William C. Wohlforth, “Don’t Come Home, America:
The Case against Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 37, No. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51.
15. Christensen, “China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia.”
16. Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.”
17. Charles L. Glaser, “The Security Dilemma Revisited,” World Politics, Vol. 50, No. 1 (October
1997), pp. 171–201.
 International Security 39:2 60

is a state’s knowledge of the other state’s motives. Does it perceive the rival
state as a “security seeker” or as a “greedy state,” seeking to fulªll its revision-
ist intentions through a military buildup and associated policies? The security
dilemma cannot be the source of military competition where a greedy state is
present because, by deªnition, such states do not seek maintenance of the
status quo. Distinguishing between security-seeking states and greedy states,
however, is difªcult under international anarchy. Consequently, states may en-
gage in worst-case scenario planning, potentially triggering security dilemma–
driven action-reaction spirals.
Glaser’s formulation is useful for assessing current circumstances in the
Asia Paciªc for two reasons. First, his distinction between status quo and
greedy states suggests that security dilemmas occur primarily between states
whose interests are otherwise largely aligned and that have a shared interest in
avoiding war. In contrast, if a conºict or action-reaction military competition
is a direct consequence of a clash over speciªc material interests (e.g., terri-
tory), then security dilemma theory is less relevant, despite a similar observed
outcome: mutual arming. Second, Glaser’s other variable—unit-level knowl-
edge of the other state’s motives (i.e., information)—is relevant when thinking
about the impact on security dilemma dynamics of varying levels of military
transparency and possible crossed signals—that is, sincere misunderstandings
concerning the intentions of particular policies—especially the role that both
can play in exacerbating extant uncertainty and mistrust.
We offer two further reªnements of the theory and its practical conse-
quences in the real world. First, as Glaser suggests, not all conºicts or arms
races are driven by security dilemmas between status quo actors concerned
only about security. In addition to concrete conºicts of interest, states may in-
crease investments in military power for other, nondefensive (but also non-
revisionist) reasons—for example, domestic politics or pursuit of coveted, yet
abstract, international prestige or status. Yet such investments, even if not ini-
tially motivated by external threats, can create or exacerbate a security di-
lemma. To the extent such buildups are driven primarily by internal factors,
there may be no mutually acceptable bargains that would satisfy one or
both sides’ concerns and eliminate the need for further investments in mili-
tary power.18
Second, although related scholarship tends to focus on the most conspicu-

18. See Randall L. Schweller, “Neorealism’s Status-Quo Bias: What Security Dilemma?” Security
Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Spring 1996), pp. 90–121.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 61

ous, and often easily quantiªable, metrics (e.g., surging defense spending
or immensely costly arms procurement decisions—think the Cold War or
Wilhelmine Germany’s naval buildup, respectively—or the formation of new
alliances), we argue that two less conspicuous, measures that states can adopt
may also trigger or intensify security dilemmas through the same basic mecha-
nism: generating insecurity in others.19
To begin, borrowing from recent scholarship critiquing the balancing litera-
ture, we expand the scope of the metrics typically employed in scholarly de-
bates on the security dilemma to include a broader selection of internal and
external policy measures aimed at enhancing a state’s military capabilities.20
Indeed, various military force development and force employment measures
aimed at enhancing military capabilities often overlooked in the existing
literature can signiªcantly inºuence a state’s perceptions of its would-be ad-
versary’s intentions. Such measures include qualitatively improving military
capabilities through modernization, innovation, or rationalization; transform-
ing force structure or posture to confront changing threats; tightening mili-
tary ties with other states short of new, formal mutual defense pacts through
joint exercises and training, hosting or rotating foreign forces, collocating mili-
tary facilities, expanding interoperability and joint contingency planning, and
sharing intelligence and military technology.21 In addition, we argue that in-
dependent of shifts in material power, leadership rhetoric and political state-
ments can generate insecurity in others. For example, statements seen by one
side as supporting the status quo may be interpreted by the other party as
offensive and threatening.

ameliorating the security dilemma

Can anything be done to ameliorate security dilemmas? Because the funda-
mental cause of the security dilemma is the anarchic character of world poli-
tics, no absolute solution to the problem seems to exist. Yet situational
variables, even assessments of intentions based on speciªc policies and rhe-
toric, can signiªcantly affect the intensity of security dilemma–driven action-

19. The security dilemma literature does hint at the importance of state actions that go beyond
arming, including alliance building and forward deployment of forces. See Glenn H. Snyder, “The
Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics,” World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4 (July 1984), pp. 461–495; and
Charles L. Glaser, Rational Theory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation
(Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2010), p. 60.
20. Liff, “Whither the Balancers?”
21. Ibid.
 International Security 39:2 62

reaction dynamics. A state might be willing to forgo, or at least limit, a new

round of arms building given credible assurances. Even without a supra-
national authority to enforce binding agreements, an iterative diplomatic
process might lead to reciprocal steps to refrain from bolstering military cap-
abilities that would otherwise ignite a new cycle of unwelcome and costly action
and reaction.22
Past scholarship has explored ways to ameliorate the security dilemma, fo-
cusing primarily on steps to increase transparency and reassurance. These
measures are not panaceas, but to the extent they reduce anarchy-induced un-
certainty, they are worth considering. First, sharing information about each
side’s interpretations of the other’s actions can facilitate recognition of the di-
lemma in which the states ªnd themselves, as well as the opportunity costs. It
can also mitigate the possible fallacy that bolstering military capabilities will
lead to a commensurate increase in security—or perhaps even more useful,
show that current policies increase both sides’ insecurity and the likelihood of
a catastrophic clash.23 Second, in circumstances where intentions are truly
status quo, increasing transparency about capabilities and decisionmaking can
reduce tensions.24 Absent credible alternative explanations, the other state’s
default response is often to assume—and to plan for—the worst. Third, diplo-
matic mechanisms for bargaining may ameliorate security dilemma–driven
competition by establishing an ongoing process for leaders to explain their
policies and establish a basis for restraint-oriented reciprocity. Finally, the
wider strategic setting in which states operate can make a difference. As
Jervis argues, if diffuse gains are possible from cooperation in the military
and other domains—gains that are put at risk in a security dilemma–driven
competition—illuminating these potential mutual beneªts may alter leaders’
cost-beneªt calculations, reducing tensions and increasing trust through coop-
eration in other areas.25
It is tempting for scholars to argue that security dilemma conºicts are easier

22. The classic discussion of the problems and opportunities for cooperation under the security di-
lemma is Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.” See also Robert Axelrod and Robert
O. Keohane, “Achieving Cooperation under Anarchy: Strategies and Institutions,” in David A.
Baldwin, ed., Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate (New York: Columbia Univer-
sity Press, 1993), pp. 85–115.
23. See Dan Lindley, Promoting Peace through Information: Transparency as a Tool of Security Regimes
(Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2007).
24. This assessment is consistent with Glaser’s focus on the degree of “unit-level knowledge of the
state’s motives.” See Glaser, “The Security Dilemma Revisited,” p. 174.
25. Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.”
 Racing toward Tragedy? 63

to resolve than other sorts of security conºicts, as the states involved would—
if they could overcome uncertainty and enforcement problems—opt for lower
levels of military spending and arms competition. Other types of security com-
petition are rooted in less diplomatically tractable causes—revisionist ambi-
tions, domestic politics, pursuit of prestige, and more fundamental clashes of
interests. Yet security dilemma conºicts are not necessarily easier to solve. Cor-
rectly identifying competition as driven—or at least partially driven—by a se-
curity dilemma logic, however, better positions policymakers to recognize and
implement diplomatic measures to ameliorate the underlying causes.

Developing a Test of Drivers of Military Competition

Based on the above theoretical elaborations of the security dilemma, we con-

struct an empirical test to evaluate the drivers of contemporary military com-
petition in the Asia Paciªc. To be sure, the transition from the realm of abstract
theory to the empirical world is often treacherous. Above all, it requires simp-
liªed abstractions of a complicated world—rarely do real-world cases ªt
neatly into the theoretical boxes in which scholars place them. For the pur-
poses of this article, we identify two basic “types” of competitive security
dynamics between states.
A type-1 strategic setting is characterized by a traditional security dilemma—
that is, a situation in which security relations between potential rivals are un-
stable and deªned by mutual suspicions of each other’s intentions but where
both sides are status quo, defensive-oriented states. Despite having aligned
interests, they nevertheless are engaged in a destabilizing action-reaction cy-
cle whereby moves to enhance one’s own security for defensive reasons
are seen by the other side as evincing potentially offensive intentions. A
vicious cycle ensues, as the other side judges it has no choice but to em-
ploy countermeasures. If the two sides could credibly signal their benign
intentions—both now and in the future—they would seek a “bargain” to re-
duce military competition.
Several variants of type-1 security dynamics exist. One variant is an ideal-
type security-dilemma conºict derived from the classic security dilemma in its
purest form. A destabilizing spiral is caused and perpetuated exclusively by
increases in one or the other side’s military capabilities strictly as a response to
security concerns emanating from uncertainty rooted in international anarchy.
The spiral devolves into a full-scale arms race, manifest in surging military ex-
penditures and massive increases in weapons procurement on both sides. A
 International Security 39:2 64

second variant is a milder version, with consequences signiªcantly less severe:

gradual efforts on both sides to enhance military capabilities that fall far short
of full-scale arms racing. In a third variant, spirals emerge and perpetuate not
only because of objectively identiªable efforts by one or both sides to enhance
military capabilities; the genesis and intensity of the spiral is also affected by
the political relations (e.g., the level of strategic trust) between the two sides.
This situation in turn can be affected by such factors as leaders’ rhetoric, ideol-
ogy, and levels of military transparency.26
A type-2 strategic setting differs from type-1 logics not in the observed
outcome—an action-reaction competitive spiral—but in its primary underly-
ing driver. Type-2 dynamics are those in which one or more states seek
changes to the status quo in a fundamentally zero-sum manner. Although one
or both sides may wish to avoid war, the core driver of military competition is
a direct conºict of interest. One or both sides are not status quo security seek-
ers arming because of mistrust and uncertainty under anarchy. The two sides’
interests are not aligned, and efforts to enhance military capabilities are a
means to a de facto revisionist end.27
Consistent with key variables advanced by classic theoretical works in the
security dilemma literature, we utilize a four-question test for security dilem-
mas in the Asia Paciªc. We adapt this approach from works by Seiichiro Takagi
and Sahoko Shiga, which were themselves based on variables originally intro-
duced by Jervis and Glaser.28 The ªrst question is: What is the offense-defense
balance in the Asia Paciªc? Second, are allegedly defensive measures/
weapons distinguishable from offensive ones? (If not, resolving or mitigating a
security dilemma will be difªcult).

26. The term “strategic trust” ªgures frequently in high-level policy discussions about U.S.-China
relations. See, for example, Mike Mullen, “A Step toward Trust with China,” New York Times, July
25, 2011. For Chinese views, see Xi Jinping, “Work Together for a Bright Future of China-U.S. Co-
operative Partnership,” Washington, D.C., February 15, 2012, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa
_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/t910351.shtml; and He, “The Trust Deªcit.”
27. The two settings presented here do not represent the full universe of possible explanations for
military buildups. Pursuit of military capabilities for any number of reasons distinct from a per-
ceived threat can generate insecurity in others. Examples include pursuit of certain capabilities
primarily for symbolic purposes (e.g., Wilhelmine Germany’s naval buildup), because of domestic
political factors such as a military-industrial complex, to counter domestic threats such as insur-
gencies or civil war, or because of bureaucratic logrolling. Rigorous examination of such alterna-
tives, however, is necessarily beyond the scope of this article.
28. Takagi, “Reisengo No Nichibei Domei To Hokuto Ajia”; Shiga, “The Security Dilemma and the
Strategic Triangle in East Asia after the Cold War”; Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Di-
lemma”; and Glaser, “The Security Dilemma Revisited.”
 Racing toward Tragedy? 65

As discussed earlier. Glaser’s analysis builds on Jervis’s and argues that

scholars must take into account two additional variables to develop a more
complete understanding of the severity of the dilemma: (1) the extent of “the
adversary’s greed (that is, motives beyond security),” and (2) the degree of
“the adversary’s unit-level knowledge of the state’s motives.”29 Accordingly,
our test for traditional security dilemma dynamics requires answers to two ad-
ditional questions: Are military buildups in the Asia Paciªc driven by clashing
interests, with one or both sides being “greedy”? To the extent they are not, the
competition could be driven by security dilemma dynamics. If military build-
ups are not the result of clashing interests and both sides are security seekers,
does each have a good understanding of the other’s motives? If not, the con-
ºict could be driven by security dilemma dynamics. In addition to the general
challenges of asymmetric information and credible commitment under anar-
chy, we must consider relative levels of military transparency.
In the following section, we analyze contemporary circumstances in the Asia
Paciªc using the criteria above. Our objective is to determine whether and, ide-
ally, the extent to which worsening military competition in the region is driven
by security dilemma dynamics.

Empirical Survey of Asia Paciªc States’ Policies and Policy Drivers

What does the available evidence suggest about regional states’ responses to
China’s rise? Do their responses reveal action-reaction dynamics? If so, are
those dynamics indicative of type-1 or type-2 logics, or elements of both?
In answering these questions, we begin with a brief overview of China’s mili-
tary development and policies. Next, we proceed to our empirical survey of
state responses. Our cases include secondary states that are long-standing for-
mal U.S. treaty allies—Australia and Japan; secondary states that are not—
Singapore and Vietnam; and the de facto established great power United
States. In each case, we are looking for efforts to enhance military capabilities
in response to a perceived threat, including military spending increases, arms
buildups, and less conspicuous as well as less easily quantiªable measures that
states may take to improve their military capabilities to deter and, if necessary,
defeat an adversary in twenty-ªrst-century warfare. We then examine the driv-
ers of these efforts.

29. Glaser, “The Security Dilemma Revisited,” p. 174.

 International Security 39:2 66

china’s military buildup

Over the past twenty-ªve years, China has signiªcantly increased its military
spending and enhanced its military capabilities both quantitatively and quali-
tatively. There seems more to come, as political and military leaders in Beijing
refer to an “increasingly severe” security environment and call for still greater
military spending and capabilities.30 Meanwhile, most U.S. allies and partners
see China as the primary cause of the problem.
Beijing appears to interpret U.S. security alliances and partnerships in the
Asia Paciªc as Cold War “relics” and therefore the persistence and strengthen-
ing of these relationships as a sign of U.S. attempts to “contain” China. In con-
trast, the United States and its security allies and partners seem to see their
own moves as responses to the objective reality of the changing distribution of
material capabilities and uncertainty about the future; they are aimed at main-
taining regional stability and a status quo that allows all countries—including
China—to remain secure and grow prosperous. On the surface, at least, the
consequences of China’s rise—in particular its pace and scope—seems a text-
book case of a security dilemma–induced destabilizing spiral. Additional
factors intensifying this dynamic are widespread uncertainty about China’s in-
tentions given the confusing doctrine of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
and Beijing’s relatively low transparency concerning its military affairs and
policy decisionmaking.
The objectively measurable change in China’s military spending and capa-
bilities over the past quarter century is telling. Since 1990 China’s ofªcial de-
fense budget has increased in nominal terms by double digits every year
except 2010. Its projected ofªcial defense budget in 2014 was 808 billion ren-
minbi (approximately $132 billion), a 12.2 percent increase over 2013. The
ofªcial ªgure is the world’s second highest, more than double Japan’s and
nearly three times India’s. Many analysts believe that Beijing’s ofªcial budget
is signiªcantly lower than its actual spending. Regardless of the precise ªgure,
the basic trend line is clear: both spending on and the capabilities of the
PLA have increased at a rapid rate.31

30. In March 2014, the director of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s expert-consultation com-
mittee stated that China’s military budget remained “far from the level it needs to be as the coun-
try faces increasingly severe security challenges.” See David J. Lynch, “China Challenges Obama’s
Asia Pivot with Rapid Military Buildup,” Bloomberg.com, April 22, 2014, http://www.bloomberg
.com/news/2014-04-23/china-deªes-obama-s-slow-asia-pivot-with-rapid-military-buildup.html.
31. Liff and Erickson, “Demystifying China’s Defence Spending”; and Erickson and Liff, “The
Budget This Time.”
 Racing toward Tragedy? 67

Especially since 2000, the pace and scope of improvement in the PLA’s mili-
tary capabilities have exceeded most observers’ expectations. Accordingly, and
regardless of Beijing’s intentions, the PLA increasingly poses at least a poten-
tial threat to China’s neighbors and the United States.32 A salient example is
the PLA’s conventional ballistic missile program, including its advanced cruise
missiles and an indigenously developed antiship ballistic missile—the ªrst of
its kind for China. Progress is also manifest in China’s rapidly improving na-
val and air forces.
The potentially destabilizing impact of China’s surging defense budget and
rapidly modernizing military on the security of neighboring states arguably is
exacerbated by China’s ambiguous strategy of “active defense” (jiji fangyu),
which ofªcially states that China will use military force only if it is attacked.
PLA doctrinal writings suggest, however, that Beijing may interpret almost any
affront to its “sovereignty and territorial integrity” as constituting an “attack”—
a vague policy that the U.S. Defense Department identiªes as troubling.33
Regardless of China’s actual intentions, many in the region interpret recent
developments as increasingly threatening. Weapons and platforms widely per-
ceived as ominous despite Beijing’s insistence on their supposedly “defensive”
nature include the PLA’s nascent aircraft carrier program, stealth ªghters,
armed drones, submarines, short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, nu-
clear weapons, and antisatellite and cyberwarfare capabilities. China’s relative
lack of military transparency appears to exacerbate widespread concerns
about its rapidly advancing capabilities and intentions. Although since 1998
China has issued biannual defense white papers and submitted basic reports
on defense expenditures to the United Nations, by any objective measure its
level of transparency on decisionmaking, spending, capabilities, and objectives
remains far below those of other countries at comparable levels of military de-
velopment, including the United States and its most capable regional allies.34
Meanwhile, public statements by Chinese ofªcials and government-run me-
dia tend to summarily dismiss other countries’ concerns about China’s mili-

32. For a seminal analysis of how China’s asymmetric approach can potentially threaten the inter-
ests and military of even the conventionally superior United States long before achieving “parity”
in military capabilities, see Thomas J. Christensen, “Posing Problems without Catching Up:
China’s Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy,” International Security, Vol. 25, No. 4 (Spring
2001), pp. 5–40.
33. Ofªce of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Re-
public of China, Annual Report to Congress (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, 2010),
p. 24.
34. Liff and Erickson, “Demystifying China’s Defence Spending,” pp. 821–823.
 International Security 39:2 68

tary buildup. Ofªcial rhetoric and media commentary suggest only limited
awareness that China is engaged in a strategic interaction and a lack of con-
cern about potentially destabilizing consequences—that is, recognition of the
costs and potentially disastrous consequences of an emerging security di-
lemma.35 For example, foreign concerns are frequently written off by govern-
ment and military ofªcials and the Chinese media as attempts by the United
States and its allies to “hype the China threat theory” (zhongguo weixie de
chaozuo) for self-interested, ulterior motives (bieyouyongxin).36 Beijing has em-
ployed the same dismissive slogans for years despite sea changes in objec-
tively measurable circumstances, such as China’s defense spending increasing
from one-third Japan’s to two or three times Japan’s from 2002 to 2014.37 In a
2011 interview on China’s aircraft carrier program, a naval researcher ex-
plained Beijing’s motivations as “just want[ing] to improve [China’s] self de-
fense ability,” stating that China “does not want[] to threat[en] any country”
and that the idea of China as a threat is “baseless.”38 Meanwhile, as apparent
evidence of the fundamental attribution error from social psychology in play
in international politics, Beijing dismisses Japan’s stated concerns about its
massive neighbor’s rapidly advancing military capabilities as disguised efforts
to justify Tokyo’s supposed hidden agenda of remilitarization and “resurgent
militarism” (jungguozhuyi de sihuifuran).39
Meanwhile, the Barack Obama administration’s so-called rebalance to the

35. One high-ranking PLA ofªcial has stated that those formulating China’s defense budget
should pay no heed to international opinion. See “Luo Yuan: Zhongguo Bumouqiu Zhengba” [Luo
Yuan: China does not seek hegemony], Xinhua news agency, March 9, 2010.
36. See, for example, China’s response to Japan’s 2013 defense white paper. “Guofangbu: Riben
Xin Baogao Xuanran Zhongguo Junshi Weixie Bieyouyongxin” [Ministry of Defense: Japan’s new
report exaggerates China military threat for ulterior motives], Jinghua Shibao, July 28, 2013.
37. Compare the following two articles: “Zhongguo Dafu Zeng Junfei Yu ‘Zhongguo Weixielun’”
[China’s large-scale military expenditure increases and “China threat theory”], Xinhua news
agency, March 6, 2002; and “Zhongguo Bu Cunzai Yinxing Junfei Mei Zengjia Yi Fenqian Dou Wei
Weihu Heping” [China has no invisible military spending: Every one-cent increase for upholding
peace], Xinhuanet, March 5, 2014.
38. “Five Questions about China’s Aircraft Carrier,” People’s Daily Online, July 30, 2011. http://
english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/7455794.html. A 2011 editorial in Jiefangjun Bao (PLA Daily)
dismissed overseas concerns about China’s aircraft carrier program as “completely unreasonable”
(haowu daoli), arguing that it was part of China’s “defensive national defense policy” (fangyuxing
guofang zhengce). See “Zhongguo Hangmu Rulie Bu Hui Gaibian Fangweixing Guofang Zhengce”
[China’s carrier enters ranks; won’t change defensive national defense policy], Jiefangjun Bao, Sep-
tember 26, 2012.
39. Buckley, “China Accuses Japan of Exaggerating It As a Military Threat”; and “China to Japan:
Stop Citing Us As a Threat,” Voice of America, November 11, 2013, http://www.voanews.com/
content/article/1787646.html. On militarism, see “Yishiweijian Jingti Riben Junguozhuyi de
Sihuifuran” [Use history as a mirror: Beware the return of Japanese militarism], Jiefangjun Bao,
June 23, 2014. The empirical record of Japan’s policy decisionmaking since 1945 renders these
claims dubious.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 69

Asia Paciªc is widely seen in Beijing as a strictly military effort aimed at “con-
tainment.” This reaction, which seems to have more to do with politics and
perceptions than with military capabilities, has arguably exacerbated what
may be to some extent inevitable frictions as China rises.

australia
An examination of Australia’s responses to China’s rise and military buildup
evinces qualities of a security dilemma driven by both China’s surging capa-
bilities and doubts about the sincerity of Beijing’s attempts to reassure its
neighbors. Signiªcantly, Australia and China have no territorial disputes or
obvious direct conºicts of interest. Additionally, they are major trading part-
ners. Australia is a continental-size state separated from China by immense ex-
panses of ocean. In this setting, Australia’s efforts to enhance its military
capabilities in response to a perceived, yet uncertain, threat from China have
key characteristics of type-1 logic.
An apparent turning point in Australia’s commitment to enhancing its
military capabilities occurred during the ªrst administration of Labor Prime
Minister Kevin Rudd (2007–10). Australia’s 2009 defense white paper outlined
a twenty-year military buildup plan that committed Canberra to increased de-
fense spending every year until 2030. If realized, this proposed buildup would
be Australia’s largest since World War II, including major investments in sub-
marines, frigates, Aegis air warfare destroyers, 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters,
and total procurement funds amounting to more than $52.1 billion.40 The plan
called for Australia not only to double the size of its submarine ºeet, but also
to ensure that all submarines are qualitatively superior to those currently in
use. At $36 billion, the proposed next-generation “Future Submarine” would
be Australia’s largest-ever defense project.41
In early 2013, the Julia Gillard-led Labor center-left government boosted de-
fense spending and reconªrmed most of the earlier long-term acquisition
plans.42 Australia has continued on the basic course set out in 2009 under the
current Liberal-National Party coalition led by Tony Abbott, who took ofªce in
September 2013. This continuity suggests bipartisan support for signiªcantly
increasing Australia’s military power. In 2014 alone, Australia made its

40. Jon Grevatt, “Australia’s 20-Year Defence White Paper Covers Most of the Bases,” Jane’s De-
fence Weekly, May 6, 2009.
41. Brendan Nicholson, “Smith Seeking U.S. Help to Build 12 Subs,” Australian, July 25, 2011; and
“Australia Reafªrms Submarine Procurement,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, May 26, 2011.
42. Mark Thomson, “Deciphering Australia’s Defense Budget,” Asia Paciªc Bulletin, No. 215
(Washington, D.C.: East-West Center, May 23, 2013).
 International Security 39:2 70

largest-ever defense purchase, a $11.5 billion deal for 58 F-35As; increased

its defense spending by 6.1 percent in real terms; and committed $115 billion to
defense through June 2018.
In addition to quantitative and qualitative improvements to its weapons and
platforms, Australia has sought to enhance its military capabilities by tighten-
ing links with the United States. Most of Australia’s weapon procurements are
U.S.-built or compatible with U.S. systems, thus facilitating interoperability. In
August 2009, the two allies signed the updated “Statement of Principles
[SoP] for Enhanced Cooperation between the U.S. Navy (USN) and the RAN
in Matters Relating to Submarines.”43 Australia’s armed forces conduct dozens
of regular joint exercises with the U.S. military, including the massive Talisman
Sabre drill.44 And at the 2011 meeting of the U.S. secretaries of state and de-
fense with their Australian counterparts, Washington and Canberra formally
added cyber defense to the U.S.-Australia security alliance and released a joint
communiqué that calls for greater interoperability, force posture alignment,
and consultations on ballistic missile defense.45
In 2011 Australia announced a major force posture review to coincide with
the U.S. force posture review in 2014. At the time, Defense Minister Stephen
Smith suggested that Canberra might allow the United States to preposition
equipment on Australian soil, have greater access to Australian training and
test ranges, and regularly use Australian bases and ports.46 Later in 2011, de-
spite talk of major cuts to U.S. defense spending, President Obama announced
to the Australian Parliament a “deliberate and strategic decision” to de-
ploy 2,500 Marines to Australia, increase U.S. Air Force access to airªelds in
Australia’s Northern Territory, and enhance joint training and exercises. Most
important, Obama stressed that looming defense budget cuts “will not—I re-
peat, will not—come at the expense of the Asia-Paciªc.”47 By the end of 2014,
1,200 U.S. Marines will be based at Darwin; 2,500 by the end of 2015.48

43. Jon Grevatt, “Australia and U.S. Update Submarine Co-operation Agreement,” Jane’s Defence
Weekly, November 6, 2009.
44. Anne Gearon and Lolita C. Baldor, “Deal Near on More U.S. Military Access in Australia,” As-
sociated Press, September 15, 2011.
45. U.S. Department of State, “Australia–United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN 2011)
Joint Communiqué” (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 2011), http://www.state.gov/r/
pa/prs/ps/2011/09/172517.htm.
46. Ian McPherdran, “U.S. Eyes Base in State’s Outback,” Advertiser, July 29, 2011.
47. Barack Obama, “Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament,” Canberra, Aus-
tralia, November 17, 2011, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-ofªce/2011/11/17/remarks-
president-obama-australian-parliament.
48. Seth Robson, “Japan, Australia Look to Marines While Beeªng Up Amphibious Forces,” Stars
and Stripes, March 27, 2014, http://www.stripes.com/news/japan-australia-look-to-marines-
while-beeªng-up-amphibious-forces-1.274312.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 71

Australia has also moved to enhance its military ties with other U.S. security
allies and partners in the region. Perhaps most remarkable are its deepening
military and security ties with Japan. In 2002 Canberra joined Washington and
Tokyo to establish the Trilateral Security Dialogue, which now consists of
ministerial-level trilateral security consultations. In Iraq, Australian forces
defended Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF). In 2007 Prime Ministers John
Howard and Shinzo Abe signed the landmark Joint Declaration on Security
Cooperation. This declaration led to a qualitative increase in defense links, as
well as annual meetings between the two countries’ defense and foreign minis-
ters and enhanced bilateral military cooperation.49 In 2013 and 2014 bilateral
defense cooperation accelerated, as Tokyo and Canberra signed the Acquisi-
tion and Cross-Servicing Agreement, the Information Security Agreement, and
a major security agreement that includes joint development of defense equip-
ment.50 Military exercises, including high-level bilateral exercises, antisub-
marine warfare practice, and multilateral exercises with the United States and
other U.S. allies, have also expanded signiªcantly.
Australia’s recent security policy changes appear to be a direct reaction to
China’s increasing military capabilities, as well as doubts about Beijing’s inten-
tions because of an absence of strategic trust. Recent statements by Australia’s
prime ministers as well as ofªcial government publications and intelligence
assessments suggest a clear—and growing—concern about the PLA and pro-
vide grounds for concluding that Australia’s policy response ºows in large
part from a security dilemma–type dynamic. China appears to be similarly
affected. For example, during a spring 2012 trip to Beijing, Foreign Minister
Bob Carr reported that his Chinese interlocutors expressed concerns about
Australia’s pursuit of stronger military ties with the United States.51 Analysts
also point to China as the major driver of Canberra’s enhanced defense coop-
eration with Tokyo.52
In response to this diplomatic backlash from China, Canberra appears to
be limiting explicit references to a Chinese threat. Yet a sampling of ofªcial
publications and statements by political leaders demonstrates that concern

49. Evan S. Medeiros et al., Paciªc Currents: The Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East
Asia to China’s Rise (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2008), pp. 213–214.
50. Yusuke Ishihara, “Japan-Australia Defence Cooperation in the Asia-Paciªc Region,” in Wil-
liam Tow and Tomonori Yoshizaki, eds., Beyond the Hub and Spokes: Australia-Japan Security Cooper-
ation (Tokyo: National Institute for Defense Studies, 2014), pp. 100–102; and “Australia Defends
Security Deal with Japan,” Agence France-Presse, April 8, 2014, http://www.defensenews.com/
article/20140408/DEFREG03/304080031/Australia-Defends-Security-Deal-Japan.
51. “Carr: China Concerned by Australia-U.S. Military Ties,” BBC News, May 15, 2012.
52. Ishihara, “Japan-Australia Defence Cooperation in the Asia-Paciªc Region,” p. 122.
 International Security 39:2 72

about China’s rapid military development and a lack of transparency were

major drivers of Canberra’s original decision to launch a signiªcant military
buildup—one that largely continues apace today, despite four prime ministers
and major ªscal concerns. Australia’s 2007 Defence Update notes that “the
pace and scope of [China’s] military modernization . . . could create misunder-
standings and instability in the region.”53 In a response to a question after the
release of the 2009 defense white paper, Prime Minister Rudd told reporters,
“It’s as plain as day that there is a signiªcant military and naval build-up
across the Asia-Paciªc region, that’s a reality, it’s a truth, it’s there. Either you
can simply choose to ignore that fact, or to incorporate that into a realistic com-
ponent of Australia’s strategic assumptions about what this region will look
like over the next two decades.”54 The white paper states, “A major power
of China’s stature can be expected to develop a globally signiªcant military
capability beªtting its size. But the pace, scope, and structure of China’s
military modernisation have the potential to give its neighbours cause for
concern if not carefully explained, and if China does not reach out to others
to build conªdence regarding its military plans.”55 Finally, recent reports
about a leaked intelligence assessment suggest that the Ofªce of National
Assessments, the Defence Intelligence Organisation, and the Defence and
Foreign Affairs departments “agree that the trend of China’s military moderni-
sation is beyond the scope of what would be required for a conºict over
Taiwan.” They further concur that the speed of China’s buildup, coupled with
“the opacity of Beijing’s intentions and programs,” is “already altering the bal-
ance of power in Asia and could be a destabilizing inºuence,” adding that
“there is the potential for possible misconceptions which could lead to a seri-
ous miscalculation or crisis” and “the nature of the [PLA] and the regime
means that transparency will continue to be viewed as a potential vulner-
ability. This contributes to the likelihood of strategic misperceptions.”56 These
assessments suggest strongly that seen from Canberra, China’s rapidly in-
creasing military capabilities and policies are threatening. Yet they also sug-
gest that their destabilizing effects could be partially mitigated by expanded

53. Australian Department of Defence, Australia’s National Security: A Defence Update 2007 (Can-
berra: Australian Department of Defence, 2007), p. 19.
54. Simon Jenkins and Andrew Drummond, “Australia Must Be Strong in Asia-Paciªc: Rudd,”
Australian Associated Press, May 2, 2009.
55. Australian Department of Defense, “Defending Australia in the Asia Paciªc Century: Force
2030 (Defence White Paper 2009)” (Canberra: Australian Department of Defence, 2009), p. 34.
56. Philip Dorling, “Chinese Expansion Fears Revealed,” Sydney Morning Herald, January 7, 2011.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 73

efforts by Beijing to improve the two states’ political relationship and enhance
strategic trust through greater transparency and dialogue.

japan
The dynamic between Tokyo and Beijing evinces characteristics of both a
type-1 logic—an abstract security dilemma driven by mistrust about both
sides’ possibly status quo intentions—and a type-2 logic driven by a perceived
direct conºict of interest over material/territorial interests in the East China
Sea. An issue in bilateral relations for four decades, the latter has become an
increasingly salient factor since the collision of a Chinese ªshing trawler and a
Japanese Coast Guard ship in September 2010.
Although Japan’s aging and declining population, less-than-robust eco-
nomic growth, and severe ªscal conditions pose major obstacles to signiª-
cantly increasing defense spending, Japan has nevertheless adopted measures
aimed at enhancing its military capabilities so as to maximize efªciencies. Re-
markably, despite these constraints, the administration of Prime Minister Abe
managed to push through defense budget increases in 2013 and 2014, and it
plans a cumulative increase of 5 percent by 2019.57
Japan’s 2010 National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) adopted a new
basic defense orientation known as “dynamic defense force” (doteki boeiryoku),
which entails a southwest shift of the SDF’s force posture (to islands closer to
China) and an increased emphasis on ºexibility and highly mobile forces.58
Japan has made signiªcant upgrades to its military capabilities, including the
expansion of its ºeet of Aegis destroyers by 50 percent (from 4 to 6 ships); in-
creases in its ºeets of submarines from 16 to 22 (the most since 1945) and its
maritime patrol aircraft; the launching of 2 Hyuga-class helicopter destroyers,
with plans to build 2 still larger 22DDH destroyers; and construction of signal
intelligence facilities, ballistic missile radar, and monitoring posts on or near
its southwest islands. Some of these upgrades are driven by the growing mis-
sile threat posed by North Korea, but a number of recent trends are a direct re-
sponse to China’s military buildup. Ground Self-Defense Forces regional units

57. For data on Japan’s defense spending, see Japanese Ministry of Defense, Wagakuni no Boei to
Yosan [Defense programs and budget of Japan] (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2014), p. 48,
http://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/2014/yosan.pdf. These moderate increases come on the heels of
eleven consecutive years of defense spending decline.
58. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “National Defense Program Guidelines and the Mid-Term De-
fense Program” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2013), http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_act/
d_policy/national.html.
 International Security 39:2 74

based in Kyushu, in coordination with the Maritime Self-Defense Forces and

Air Self-Defense Forces, hold exercises focused on responding to an invasion
of offshore islands.59 Japan has also signiªcantly enhanced the capabilities of
its already robust Coast Guard.60
The 2013 NDPG reinforced the dynamic defense force concept, adding the
term “joint” (togo), and calls for Japan to build up future defense capabilities
“to place priority on ensuring maritime and air superiority, which is the pre-
requisite for effective deterrence and response in various situations, including
the defense posture buildup in the southwestern region.”61 Whether feasible or
not, this call suggests that maintaining superiority over China is a primary ob-
jective. The 2013 ªve-year Midterm Defense Plan calls for 7 more destroyers,
including 2 Aegis destroyers, bringing the aggregate total up to 54 (from 47)
and the Aegis total to 8 from 6 (an effective doubling of Aegis ªrepower in less
than a decade), and 28 F-35s. For the ªrst time since 1945, Japan is also stand-
ing up a new amphibious force to be interoperable with U.S. Marines.62
The SDF and U.S. military have signiªcantly expanded the number and fre-
quency of regular joint exercises, such as Cope North and Red Flag-Alaska be-
tween the two air forces, amphibious and counteroffensive training aimed at
enemy incursions and occupations of small islands (“Iron Fist”) and during
the annual Yamasaki exercises, and Patriot missile training at Fort Bliss.63 In
February 2005, Washington and Tokyo announced common strategic objec-

59. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “Defense Programs and Budget of Japan: Overview of FY2010
Budget” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2013), p. 6, http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_budget/
pdf/220416.pdf. In 2005, Kyodo News reported that the Defense Agency had prepared a plan to
defend Japan’s southwest from possible invasion by dispatching a joint JSDF force spearheaded by
55,000 Ground Self-Defense Force troops. See “Defense Plan Prepared for Remote Islands,” Japan
Times, January 16, 2005.
60. Richard J. Samuels, “‘New Fighting Power!’ Japan’s Growing Maritime Capabilities and East
Asian Security,” International Security, Vol. 32, No. 3 (Winter 2007/08), pp. 84–112; and Yoko
Masuda, “The Race to Beef Up Japan’s Coast Guard,” Japan Real Time blog, Wall Street Journal, Oc-
tober 27, 2012, http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/10/27/the-race-to-beef-up-japans-
coast-guard/?mod⫽WSJBlogtab/print/.
61. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “National Defense Program Guidelines for FY2014 and Beyond
(Summary)” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2013), December 17, 2013, http://www.mod
.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/2014/pdf/20131217_e.pdf.
62. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “Chuki Boeiryoku Seibi Keikaku (Heisei 26nendo⬃Heisei
30nendo) Ni Tsuite” [Concerning the mid-term defense program (2014⬃2018)] (Tokyo: Japanese
Ministry of Defense, 2013), http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/2014/pdf/
chuki_seibi26-30.pdf.
63. Tony Perry and Bruce Wallace, “Japanese Troops Shore Up Skills,” Los Angeles Times, January
13, 2006; Andersen Air Force Base 36th Wing Public Affairs, “Exercise Cope North Focuses En-
hances Japan, U.S. Operations,” January 25, 2009, http://www.andersen.af.mil/news/story.asp?id
⫽123132615; and Sean Martin, “U.S., Japanese Airmen Train for Red Flag-Alaska,” May 20, 2010,
http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/116607/us-japanese-airmen-train-
for-red-ºag-alaska.aspx.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 75

tives and in 2006 announced major measures aimed at enhancing inter-

operability, collocating U.S. and Japanese bases in Japan, as well as expanding
joint training and operations and missile defense cooperation.64 In 2013
Washington and Tokyo announced plans to revise the 1997 Guidelines for
Defense Cooperation by the end of 2014 with the explicit objective of “expand-
ing security and defense cooperation.”65
In addition to tightening links with Washington and Canberra, Tokyo has
sought closer relations with other U.S. allies and partners. In 2011 Japan and
South Korea called for a bilateral acquisition and cross-servicing agreement.66
Furthermore, during Keen Sword 2011—the largest joint naval drills between
the U.S. and Japanese militaries—South Korea was invited to attend as an ob-
server for the ªrst time.67 In October 2008, Japan and India signed a joint secu-
rity declaration stating that the two countries’ strategic partnership would
become “an essential pillar for the future architecture of the region.”68 In the
spring of 2014, the leaders of Australia and the Philippines expressed public
support for the Abe administration’s effort—achieved via a historic cabinet
resolution on July 1—to “reinterpret” the war-renouncing Article 9 of Japan’s
constitution to enable Japan to exercise the United Nations–sanctioned right to
collective self-defense.69 This development may herald signiªcant changes
to Japan’s security policy posture in the Asia Paciªc and beyond, the U.S.-
Japan security alliance, and Tokyo’s security ties with U.S. security allies
and partners.
A major, if not the primary, driver of Japan’s efforts to enhance its military

64. Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Joint Statement U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Com-
mittee” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 19, 2005), http://www.mofa.go.jp/
region/n%2Damerica/us/security/scc/joint0502.html; Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
“United States-Japan Roadmap for Realignment Implementation” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, May 1, 2006), http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/scc/
doc0605.html; and Joseph Coleman, “U.S., Japan Expand Missile-Defense Plan,” Washington Post,
June 23, 2006.
65. U.S. Department of State, “Joint Statement of the Security Consultative Committee: Toward a
More Robust Alliance and Greater Shared Responsibilities” (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department
of State, October 3, 2013), http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/10/215070.htm.
66. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “Nikkan Boeisho Kaidan No Gaiyo” [Outline of Japan-ROK de-
fense ministers’ discussion] (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Defense, June 4, 2011), http://www
.mod.go.jp/j/press/youjin/2011/06/04f.pdf. Recent political disputes over historical issues, how-
ever, have frozen progress.
67. Kosuke Takahashi, “Largest Joint US-Japan Naval Drills Start,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, Decem-
ber 3, 2010.
68. Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Joint Statement on the Advancement of the Strategic
and Global Partnership between Japan and India” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
October 22, 2008), http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/india/pmv0810/joint_s.html.
69. “Philippine Leader Backs Larger Japan Military Role,” Associated Press, June 24, 2014.
 International Security 39:2 76

capabilities in recent years appears to be a perceived growing threat from

China. To Tokyo, this threat perception is heavily inºuenced by Beijing’s rapid
military buildup—both its growing capabilities speciªcally and more general
concerns about its strategic intentions given the recent deterioration in politi-
cal relations between the two countries and China’s lack of military transpar-
ency. Yet the threat is not merely an abstract and future one. An increasingly
salient factor in Japanese defense planners’ calculations is the manner in
which China is asserting its claim to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East
China Sea.
As a testament to the role of China’s rise and military buildup in driving im-
portant aspects of Japan’s recent security policy shifts, a recent internal minis-
try of defense document argued that the objective of Japan’s southwest island
chain strategy is “to maintain the military superiority of Japan and the United
States over China in this region and have China abandon its ambition to pose a
threat to the national interests of Japan and the United States.”70 The assump-
tion implicit in this stated objective is that by responding to China’s buildup
by enhancing their own military capabilities, the allies can increase their secu-
rity and even convince China to back down. This way of thinking is consistent
with the core tragedy of the security dilemma. Similarly, the 2010 NDPG cites
China’s increasing defense expenditures, rapid military modernization, ex-
panding capabilities, and lack of military transparency as “matter[s] of con-
cern for the region and the international community.”71 It calls for Japan to
shift its force posture southwest to address an “SDF deployment vacuum.”72
Japan’s 2011 defense white paper expresses concern about China’s “assertive”
behavior, its lack of military transparency, the size of its defense budget (which
had increased 70 percent in the ªve years prior), and the pace of its ongoing
military modernization.73
Although China contends that its military buildup is “defensive,” Japan
clearly sees it as directly threatening. This perceptual disconnect was manifest
in Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa’s August 2011 comment about China’s
recently unveiled aircraft carrier—which China has repeatedly argued is

70. Cited in Yoichi Kato, “SDF Preparations All Have but Only One Target: China,” Asahi Shimbun,
January 1, 2011.
71. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “Heisei 23 Nendo Iko Ni Kakawaru Boei Keikaku No Taiko
Ni Tsuite” [About the post-2011 National Defense Program guidelines] (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry
of Defense, December 17, 2010), http://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/2011/
taikou.html.
72. Ibid.
73. Japanese Ministry of Defense, “Defense of Japan 2011” (Tokyo: Japanese Ministry of Defense,
2011), http://www.mod.go.jp/e/publ/w_paper/2011.html.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 77

“defensive,” dismissing foreign concerns as “completely unreasonable.”74

Kitazawa disagreed, stating, “As an aircraft carrier, it is of a highly maneuver-
able and offensive nature. We want China to explain the reasons why it needs
it. . . . There is no doubt that it will have a big impact on the region.”75 Two
months later, Democratic Party Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda stated:
“Uncertainty regarding our security situation continues to grow [futomeisa
wo mashiteorimasu] due to [. . . North Korea . . .] and repeated and frequent
maritime activities of China in the seas around Japan.”76 In November 2012,
Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto explicitly linked his call for a revision of
the U.S.-Japan Guidelines to the perceived China threat.77
This basic trend has accelerated over the past three years, a period that
has also seen the return of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to power in
December 2012—suggesting that threat perceptions vis-à-vis China are wide-
spread across the political spectrum. The reascendance of the LDP coincides
with what Tokyo sees as increasingly provocative Chinese behavior in the East
China Sea. This behavior has expanded signiªcantly in the wake of the Noda
administration’s purchase of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands (claimed by China
but administered by Japan) from a private Japanese owner in late 2012.78
Many aspects of Japan’s security policy under Prime Minister Abe, espe-
cially as the territorial dispute in the East China Sea has festered, have been
linked directly to China’s rise. During the rollout of the 2013 National Security
Strategy in December 2013, Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera expressed
“deep concern” about China’s actions in the East China Sea. Japan’s 2013 de-
fense white paper referred explicitly to “extremely regrettable” Chinese ac-
tions, including “intrusion into Japan’s territorial waters, its violation of
Japan’s airspace and even dangerous actions that could cause a contingency
situation.”79 In March 2014, LDP Secretary-General (and former Defense Min-

74. “Zhongguo Hangmu Rulie Bu Hui Gaibian Fangweixing Guofang Zhengce.”

75. “Japan Calls for China to Explain Aircraft Carrier,” Agence France-Presse, August 12, 2011.
76. Prime Minister’s Ofªce, “Address by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda at the 2011 Air Re-
view” (Tokyo: Prime Minister’s Ofªce, October 16, 2011), http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/noda/
statement/201110/16kunji_e.html.
77. Martin Fackler, “Japan Aims to Revise Security Pact with U.S.,” New York Times, November 9,
2012.
78. Beijing criticized the central government’s move as a violation of the status quo. Noda de-
fended it as necessary to prevent Shintaro Ishihara, the governor of Tokyo, from purchasing and
developing the islands. Many observers, including Noda, have argued that allowing Ishihara to
acquire the islands could have incited a war with China. See Isabel Reynolds, “Noda Says Failure
to Buy Islands Could Have Meant China Conºict,” Bloomberg.com, August 22, 2014.
79. Hiroko Tabuchi, “Japan Warns of China and North Korea as Security Threats,” New York Times,
July 9, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/10/world/asia/japan-warns-of-threats-from-
china-and-north-korea.html.
 International Security 39:2 78

ister) Shigeru Ishiba called for “an Asian version of NATO” in response to “a
[likely] continued rise in China’s defense budget and U.S. inºuence waning.”80

singapore
Singapore’s response to China’s rise and military buildup also shows charac-
teristics of a security dilemma driven by both military and political factors, al-
beit of a much milder form than Australia’s and Japan’s. Like Australia, but in
contrast to Japan and Vietnam, Singapore has no territorial disputes or obvi-
ous direct conºicts of interest with China. Distinct from Japan and Australia,
Singapore is not a U.S. treaty ally. Also, it maintains close political and eco-
nomic relations with Beijing. Yet Singapore has for decades maintained a close
military relationship with the United States as a hedge against possible insta-
bility in the region. As a speech delivered in 2000 by Singapore’s prime minis-
ter stated, “The U.S. presence has been a determining reason for the peace and
stability Asia enjoys today. It has helped turn an unstable region of tension
and strife into a booming and dynamic Southeast Asia.”81 More recently,
Singapore’s focus has increasingly been on concerns about China’s rise and
rapid military modernization.82 As a 2008 study by the RAND Corporation
argues, Singaporean leaders identify the United States as both a “principal sta-
bilizer” in the region and as the “only realistic counterweight to potential
Chinese external assertiveness.” Consequently, a primary Singaporean foreign
policy objective is to “keep[] the United States actively engaged and forward
deployed in the region.”83
Singapore has steadily increased its defense spending: from U.S.$8.4 billion
in 2007 to U.S.$9.9 billion in 2014.84 It purchased two modern, air-independent
propulsion Swedish Archer-class submarines in 2005 (the ªrst delivered in
August 2011), plans to procure two Type-218SG submarines from Germany,
and is expected to purchase the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. In January 2014, it an-
nounced a U.S.$2.4 billion deal with the United States to upgrade Singapore’s
F-16C/Ds.85

80. “Asia Needs NATO-Style Alliance against China: LDP Lawmaker,” Kyodo news agency,
March 6, 2014.
81. Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, “ASEAN-U.S. Relations: Challenges,” speech presented at the
Asia Society, Singapore, September 7, 2000, http://asiasociety.org/asean-us-relations-challenges.
82. Robyn Klingler-Vidra, “The Pragmatic ‘Little Red Dot’: Singapore’s U.S. Hedge against
China,” IDEAS Report SR015 (London: London School of Economics, 2012), pp. 67, 71–72.
83. Medeiros et al., Paciªc Currents, pp. 185–186.
84. Jon Grevatt, “Singapore Announces SGD12.56 Billion Defence Budget,” Jane’s Defence Weekly,
February 25, 2014.
85. Ibid.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 79

In July 2005, Singapore and Washington signed a strategic framework agree-

ment making Singapore a “major security-cooperation partner” of the United
States. Based on the agreement, the two sides have expanded their joint
military exercises and training; enhanced cooperation in counterterrorism, de-
fense technology, and counterproliferation; and increased policy dialogues.
Singapore’s advanced military—particularly its air force—gives it the ability to
interoperate with U.S. forces. Singapore currently hosts U.S. Navy Logistic
Group West Paciªc and the U.S. Air Force 497th Combat Training Squadron.86
Since 2000 its Changi Naval Base has been open to U.S. aircraft carriers.87 Its
military forces have access to training and bases in the United States.88 Since
2013 the Obama administration has forward-deployed littoral combat ships to
Singapore as a core component of its rebalancing efforts. The ªrst of these
ships conducted patrols in the South China Sea, among other missions.89
China’s long-term strategic intentions and its relationship with the United
States appear to be Singapore’s two primary security concerns. In a 2013 study,
Capt. Dexian Cai of Singapore’s armed forces argues that “Singapore avoids
any discourse that might paint China as a threat, but must remain uncertain
about Chinese motives.”90 Singapore is too small—its population is 1/270th
the size of China’s—to consider competing with Beijing by itself. Also, because
it does not have any territorial disputes with China, China’s military buildup
poses a reduced concrete threat. Accordingly, Singapore’s basic strategy is a
mix of economic engagement of China concomitant with tightening security
ties with the United States, Japan, and others as a hedge against uncertainty—
especially in the face of China’s rapid rise and military modernization.91
The aim of the latter part of its strategy is to maintain a balance of power
to support regional stability. Singaporean leaders make a concerted effort
to keep Washington engaged in the region and the U.S. military for-
ward deployed.92

86. Embassy of the United States, Singapore, “Navy Region Center Singapore (NRCS)” (Singa-
pore: Embassy of the United States, Singapore, n.d.), http://singapore.usembassy.gov/nrcs.html.
87. Dexian Cai, “Hedging for Maximum Flexibility: Singapore’s Pragmatic Approach to Security
Relations with the US and China,” Pointer: Journal of the Singapore Armed Forces, Vol. 39, No. 2
(2013), p. 2.
88. Ibid., p. 3.
89. Grace Jean, “USN LCS Patrolled South China Sea during Deployment,” Jane’s Defence Weekly,
January 7, 2014.
90. Cai, “Hedging for Maximum Flexibility,” p. 3.
91. Medeiros et al., Paciªc Currents, pp. 185–186; Klingler-Vidra, “The Pragmatic ‘Little Red Dot,’”
pp. 67, 70–72; and Cai, “Hedging for Maximum Flexibility.”
92. Medeiros et al., Paciªc Currents, pp. 185–186.
 International Security 39:2 80

vietnam
Major tensions are a deªning characteristic of contemporary security rela-
tions between Hanoi and Beijing. These tensions have arisen from long-
standing, sometimes violent, and worsening territorial disputes in the South
China Sea—speciªcally, over the Spratly and Paracel Islands. Changes in
Vietnamese security policy over the past several years evince the serious threat
that Hanoi believes these disputes pose to its interests and appear primarily
driven by a desire to enhance its ability to defend those claims. Albeit from a
low base, to this end Vietnam appears committed to signiªcantly enhancing its
military capabilities, especially in the maritime and air domains. Defense
spending increased by 70 percent in 2011.93 According to the International In-
stitute for Strategic Studies, from 2012 to 2013 Hanoi further raised the ofªcial
budget—from $3.3 billion to $3.8 billion.94 Jane’s Defence Weekly projects
that this ªgure will increase rapidly—to $4.9 billion—by 2017.95 In late 2009,
Vietnam signed a deal to purchase 6 Kilo-class submarines from Russia for
$2 billion, due for delivery by 2016.96 It has also ªnished orders for or ex-
pressed interest in fast attack craft, Su-30MK2 ªghter aircraft, and a coastal de-
fense system from Russia.97 By 2017 it will have procured its third and fourth
Russian-built Gepard light frigates, intended for antisubmarine warfare—most
likely in the South China Sea. In mid-2013 Vietnam stood up a combined air
force and navy brigade tasked with maritime missions.98
In addition to enhancing its military capabilities, Vietnam is strengthening
military ties with other regional states. In the second half of 2010 alone,
Vietnam signed defense collaboration partnerships “of variable scope and de-
tail” with ªfteen countries. The content of these agreements varies, but can
include military exchanges, training, arms sales, and search-and-rescue collab-

93. Ofªcial defense spending amounted to only $2.6 billion. Actual spending is believed to have
been much higher. Jon Grevatt, “Vietnam’s Military Spending to Rise by 70% in 2011,” Jane’s De-
fence Weekly, January 17, 2011.
94. International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Chapter Six: Asia,” The Military Balance 2014
(London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2014), p. 287.
95. Jon Grevatt, “Brieªng: Powering Up,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, July 17, 2013.
96. “Russia to Hand Over ‘Black Hole’ Sub to Vietnam in November,” RIA Novosti, July 29, 2013,
http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20130729/182478140/Russia-to-Hand-Over-Black-Hole-Sub-to-
Vietnam-in-November.html.
97. Jon Grevatt, “Vietnam Outlines 2011 Strategy,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, December 30, 2010; Jon
Grevatt, “Vietnam Negotiates for Russian Coastal Defence Systems,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, August
15, 2011; and Jon Grevatt, “Vietnam Signs Deal with Russia to Procure Additional Su-30MK2s,”
Jane’s Defence Weekly, August 21, 2013.
98. Gareth Jennings, “Vietnam Stands Up New Air Force–Navy Brigade,” Jane’s Defence Weekly,
July 10, 2013.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 81

oration.99 In 2011 it opened up its deep-water port in Cam Ranh Bay to foreign
navies.100 U.S.-Vietnam military ties are deepening rapidly, though from a low
base. The two navies are conducting their ªrst joint naval exercises since
the Vietnam War.101 In 2013 Presidents Obama and Truong Tan Sang pledged
to deepen military ties and agreed to a “Comprehensive Partnership.”102
Washington is currently considering easing a long-standing arms embargo
against Hanoi.103
Vietnam is also reaching out to U.S. allies. In 2010 Hanoi and Canberra
signed the “Memorandum of Understanding on Defence Cooperation.”104
Building on a similar memorandum signed with Japan in 2011, in 2014
Tokyo and Hanoi agreed to enter into an “extensive strategic partnership” de-
signed to enhance bilateral defense cooperation and cooperation in maritime
security, and even jointly criticized China for provocative behavior vis-à-vis
territorial disputes.105 A similar joint statement criticizing China was made
with Philippines President Benigno Aquino.106 Meanwhile, Japan has taken
initial steps to provide Vietnam with patrol boats, 10 of which Vietnam re-
quested in 2013, and the United States has offered funds to enhance Hanoi’s
maritime capabilities, including fast patrol boats and training.107
Vietnam’s surging defense expenditures, its recent procurement of Kilo-class
submarines and other weapons platforms from Russia, and its efforts to estab-
lish stronger security ties with almost every major player both within and out-
side the Asia Paciªc suggest that Hanoi is engaged in an increasingly severe
capabilities competition with China. There appears to be little evidence, how-
ever, that Hanoi’s policy shifts are driven by type-1 dynamics: a security di-

99. Jon Grevatt, “UK and Vietnam to Sign Landmark Defence Co-operation Agreement,” Jane’s
Defence Weekly, September 7, 2010.
100. Amol Sharma et al., “Asia’s New Arms Race,” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2011.
101. “U.S.-Vietnam Naval Exercises Begin Amid Sea Tensions,” Bloomberg.com, April 8, 2014.
102. Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S.-Vietnam Defence Relations: Convergence Not Congruence,” China
Policy Institute blog, March 12, 2014, http://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/chinapolicyinstitute/2014/
03/12/u-s-vietnam-defence-relations-convergence-not-congruence/.
103. Jon Grevatt, “U.S. ‘May Ease’ Export Restrictions against Myanmar and Vietnam,” Jane’s De-
fence Weekly, February 19, 2014.
104. Julian Kerr and James Hardy, “Australia, Vietnam Signal Closer Defence Ties,” Jane’s Defence
Weekly, March 20, 2013.
105. Jon Grevatt, “Japan, Vietnam Pave Way for Further Defence Collaboration,” Jane’s Defence
Weekly, April 23, 2014; and “Japan, Vietnam Criticize China for Instability in South China Sea,”
Kyodo news agency, May 22, 2014.
106. Kristine Kwok and Julian Ryall, “Vietnam Edges Closer to Old U.S. Foe as Maritime Dispute
with China Heats Up,” South China Morning Post, May 30, 2014.
107. Scott Cheney-Peters, “Japan to Provide Vietnam Patrol Boats Next Year,” USNI News, June 2,
2014, http://news.usni.org/2014/06/02/japan-provide-vietnam-patrol-boats-next-year.
 International Security 39:2 82

lemma resulting from a misunderstanding of Beijing’s intentions. Rather, they

appear more likely to be driven by type-2 dynamics: a concrete dispute over
material and territorial interests.

united states
A self-proclaimed Asia Paciªc power for nearly a century, the United States in
recent years has increasingly shifted its force posture toward the region. While
the basic thrust of this shift precedes President Obama’s ªrst inauguration, his
administration has famously dubbed this effort the “Asia Paciªc rebalance.”108
Although the administration’s approach transcends any given domain and is
heavily focused on trade, investment, multilateralism, the advancement of
democracy, and engagement with emerging powers, the military component
is also important. Although explicitly not aimed at “containing” China’s
emergence, it is driven by the growing importance of the Asia Paciªc to
U.S. interests, coupled with widespread concerns about instability—in par-
ticular, given China’s rapid military buildup and uncertainty about its strate-
gic intentions.109
Yet as discussed earlier, what Washington in large part sees as an economic
and political agenda in the interest of stability in the Asia Paciªc is perceived
in Beijing as confrontational and threatening. This perceptual disconnect sug-
gests that even though Washington has a decades-long track record of encour-
aging China’s development and prosperity, and although tensions over some
long-standing issues (e.g., Taiwan’s status) remain salient, as China’s military
capabilities grow rapidly, a type-1 dynamic is increasingly at play.
The U.S. military’s increasing focus on the Asia Paciªc region manifests in
the U.S. Navy’s growing presence in San Diego and Guam, as well as the
growing capabilities of its forward-deployed forces. Current efforts continue a
long-term trend of increasing U.S. military capability in the Asia Paciªc. For
example, the U.S. Seventh Fleet has grown quantitatively and qualitatively
over the past twelve years. It now operates up to 70 ships, compared with

108. For background, see Obama, “Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament”;
Clinton, “America’s Paciªc Century”; U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leader-
ship: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, January
2012); and Susan E. Rice, “Remarks As Prepared for Delivery by National Security Advisor Susan
E. Rice,” Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., November 20, 2013, http://www.whitehouse
.gov/the-press-ofªce/2013/11/21/remarks-prepared-delivery-national-security-advisor-susan-e-
rice.
109. Yoichi Kato, “Interview/ Mark Lippert: U.S. Deploys High-End Weapons in Paciªc to Meet
China’s Challenge, Other Contingencies,” Asahi Shimbun, May 29, 2013.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 83

50–60 a decade ago, each of which is far more capable than its predecessors.110
In June 2012, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that the United
States would further enhance its military strength by continuing to replace ob-
solescent ships with more advanced ones, expanding and increasing military
exercises, and reposturing its naval forces. Six of 11 aircraft carrier battle
groups and 60 percent of the U.S. Navy’s ships are scheduled to be home-
ported in the Paciªc Ocean by 2020.111
Washington is also considering signiªcant doctrinal innovation to enhance
its warªghting capabilities in a potential conºict with China, exempliªed by
the controversial Air-Sea Battle Concept. Details remain murky and the con-
cept remains under debate at a classiªed level, but it appears to entail develop-
ing new capabilities potentially to be employed in the event of a war to attack
the mainland of a nuclear-armed nation.112 Accordingly, it is seen by many
in the United States, to say nothing of China, as very provocative, even de-
stabilizing. As discussed earlier, the U.S. military is also signiªcantly enhanc-
ing security cooperation and interoperability with its long-standing allies and
partners in the region, as well as new partners, such as Vietnam.
Recent changes to the U.S. military’s force posture show that its naval and
air forces will increasingly focus on the western Paciªc theater and engage se-
curity allies and partners—new and old. An overview of key ofªcial state-
ments from American civilian and military leaders suggests that these policies
stem not only from the objective reality of China’s rapid military buildup and
its increased capabilities, but also deepening concerns about bilateral political
relations and China’s military transparency.
The 2011 National Military Strategy states that the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff
“remain concerned about the extent and strategic intent of China’s military
modernization, and its assertiveness in space, cyberspace, in the Yellow Sea,
East China Sea, and South China Sea.” The report goes on to state that U.S.
“strategic priorities and interests” will increasingly be in the Asia Paciªc re-
gion, that Washington will “invest new attention and resources” in South and
Southeast Asia, and that it will deepen cooperation with and among U.S. al-

110. Scott Van Buskirk, “Remarks at Asia Society Hong Kong,” February 21, 2011, http://
www.c7f.navy.mil/news/2011/02-february/030.htm.
111. Leon Panetta, “The U.S. Rebalance towards the Asia Paciªc,” speech presented at the Elev-
enth Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, June 2, 2012.
112. For an unclassiªed summary of the Air-Sea Battle Concept, see Air-Sea Battle Ofªce, Air-Sea
Battle: Service Collaboration to Address Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenges (Arlington, Va.: U.S.
Department of Defense, May 2013), http://www.defense.gov/pubs/ASB-ConceptImplementation-
Summary-May-2013.pdf.
 International Security 39:2 84

lies.113 During a January 2011 trip to Asia, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
told reporters, “Funding for a new generation of long-range nuclear bombers,
new electronic jammers and radar, and rockets to launch satellites would help
the U.S. military maintain its competitive edge even as China ºexes its grow-
ing military muscle,” suggesting that despite China’s rapid advancements in
capabilities, the United States is determined to maintain military superiority.114
Evidence that China’s lack of military transparency exacerbates U.S. con-
cerns about Beijing’s intentions by compelling worst-case-scenario-based plan-
ning is exempliªed by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael
Schiffer’s 2011 statement that “the pace and scope of China’s sustained mili-
tary investments have allowed China to pursue capabilities that we believe are
potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of
misunderstanding and miscalculation, and may contribute to regional ten-
sions and anxieties.”115 In June 2010, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Adm. Michael Mullen stated that he had “gone from being curious about
where China is headed to being concerned about it.”116 Daniel Picutta, adviser
to U.S. Paciªc Command, asserted that “the People’s Republic of China’s
stated goal of a defense-oriented military capability contributing to a peaceful
and harmonious Asia appears incompatible with the extent of sophisticated
weaponry China produces today. . . . Until it’s determined that China’s intent
is indeed benign, it is all the more important that the U.S. continue to maintain
the readiness of our forces.”117 Meanwhile, Bonnie Glaser, senior fellow at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, argued that “[Washington] is re-
sponding to measures that China is taking, and to the unwillingness of China
to sit down and tell us what they’re doing and what missions these new plat-
forms and weapons are intended to achieve.” In the same article, an unnamed

113. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Military Strategy of the United States of America (Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, February 2011), pp. 13–14, http://www.army.mil/info/
references/docs/NMS%20FEB%202011.pdf.
114. Andrea Shalal-Esa, “Analysis: China Prism Focuses Pentagon Budget on New Weapons,”
Reuters, January 25, 2011.
115. U.S. Department of Defense, “DOD [Department of Defense] Press Brieªng on the 2011 An-
nual Report to Congress: Military and Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, August 24, 2011), http://www.defense.gov/Tran-
scripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID⫽4868.
116. Kathrin Hille and Mure Dickie, “China Reveals Aircraft Carrier Plans,” Financial Times, De-
cember 17, 2010.
117. Jeanette Steele, “With Eye on China, U.S. Seeks to Deªne Asia Role,” SignOnSanDiego.com,
June 13, 2011, http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/13/eye-china-us-seeks-deªne-
asia-role/.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 85

American analyst is quoted as saying, “[The United States and China are]
priming for a ªght that I’m not sure either of us needs or wants to have.”118
In a major speech in late 2013, National Security Advisor Susan Rice called
on China to enhance military engagement and transparency in order to “man-
age the realities of mistrust and competition.”119 In the context of a discussion
of factors that could lead to conºict and undo growing peace, stability, and
prosperity in the Asia Paciªc, the Pentagon’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review
references “the rapid pace and comprehensive scope of China’s military mod-
ernization . . . combined with a relative lack of transparency and openness
from China’s leaders regarding both military capabilities and intentions.” It
calls for continued “rebalancing U.S. engagement toward this critical region,”
including strengthening security alliances and partnerships, as well as seeking
out areas for cooperation with China in nontraditional security.120 The secre-
tary of defense’s 2014 report to Congress on China’s military makes the point
explicitly: “China’s lack of transparency surrounding its growing military ca-
pabilities and strategic decision-making has led to increased concerns in the re-
gion about China’s intentions. Absent greater transparency from China and a
change in its behavior, these concerns will likely intensify as the PLA’s military
modernization program progresses.”121 All of these statements suggest that
the core logic of the security dilemma is a major factor shaping the United
States’ responses to China’s rise.
Concomitant with growing concerns about China’s surging military spend-
ing and rapidly improving capabilities, U.S. political and military leaders
increasingly express concern about China’s “assertive” and “aggressive” be-
havior vis-à-vis its vast and ambiguous claims in the South and East China
Seas. These disputes, which in several cases directly involve U.S. allies and
partners, further exacerbate concerns about China’s trajectory.122 U.S. ofªcial
rhetoric has become more severe in response. Whereas in late 2013 National
Security Advisor Rice referred to “the rise of maritime disputes in the East
China Sea and South China Sea” as a “growing threat to regional peace and
security—and U.S. interests” without mentioning China explicitly as the pro-

118. Michael Wines, “U.S. and China Try to Agree on Military Strategy,” New York Times, July 14,
2011.
119. Rice, “Remarks As Prepared for Delivery by National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice.”
120. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review, 2014 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department
of Defense, 2014), pp. 4, 16–17.
121. Ofªce of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Re-
public of China, Annual Report to Congress (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, 2014).
122. Shalal-Esa, “Aggressive Chinese Territorial Claims Bring Risks.”
 International Security 39:2 86

vocateur,123 several months later Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel implicitly

accused China of “intimidation and coercion,” as well as “destabilizing, unilat-
eral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.”124

discussion
The preceding empirical survey yields several preliminary conclusions. First,
security dilemma dynamics appear to be important drivers of states enhancing
military capabilities in the increasingly volatile Asia Paciªc region. This dy-
namic is unfolding between China on the one hand and the United States and
several of China’s neighbors on the other. The cases can be divided roughly
into three categories based on the drivers of their military capabilities enhance-
ment measures vis-à-vis China. The ªrst group of states—in declining order of
severity of observable policy responses—includes the United States, Australia,
Japan, and Singapore. These states may also have long-standing interest-based
disputes with China—for example, Washington’s frictions with Beijing over
the international status of Taiwan—but recent security policy shifts and invest-
ments in enhancing military power also appear to be directly attributable to
China’s growing military capabilities and uncertainty about its strategic inten-
tions. The second group of states have signiªcantly enhanced their military ca-
pabilities for reasons directly connected to both China’s military buildup in the
abstract, and its more provocative behavior vis-à-vis speciªc disputes over
material/territorial interests seen by their leaders as de facto revisionist. The
former is seen as posing a more abstract threat, whereas the latter is perceived
to be speciªc and imminent. Among the cases examined above, Japan (East
China Sea) also appears to fall into this second category most clearly. The third
group consists of states whose efforts to enhance their military capabilities
seem driven primarily by perceived revisionist behavior vis-à-vis speciªc dis-
putes over material/territorial interests. Vietnam (South China Sea) falls most
clearly into this category.
Second, not all action-reaction military competition in the region is exclu-
sively the result of security dilemmas. Direct conºicts over speciªc territorial/
material interests are also important drivers of mutual arming. Despite
frequent overlap, the conceptual distinction of causal mechanisms has theoret-
ical and practical signiªcance. For example, the mutual military buildups of

123. Rice, “Remarks As Prepared for Delivery by National Security Advisor Susan E. Rice.”
124. Chuck Hagel, speech delivered to the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, May 31, 2014,
http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID⫽1857.
 Racing toward Tragedy? 87

Vietnam and China seem to be driven primarily by a direct clash of interests—

over territorial disputes in the South China Sea—whereas the potential threat
posed by China’s military buildup to Australia is far more abstract. Accord-
ingly, Canberra’s efforts to enhance its military capabilities are more sugges-
tive of a traditional security dilemma dynamic. Although in both cases the
observable outcomes—mutual military buildups and tensions—are similar,
the core causal mechanism differs.
Third, even in cases where available evidence suggests that states’ actual in-
tentions may be status quo, the other side may not recognize that fact, which
in turn exacerbates the security dilemma. Leaders from the three clearest can-
didates for security dilemmas with China—the United States, Australia, and
Japan—have repeatedly voiced concern about China’s lack of transparency re-
garding its military spending, capabilities, and intentions. China’s leaders
have repeatedly expressed a desire to enhance “strategic trust” and to “reduce
misunderstanding and suspicion.”125 Yet if China is a status quo power—
setting aside the important and complicated issue of its long-standing (and
destabilizing) territorial sovereignty claims—its relative lack of military trans-
parency appears to unnecessarily exacerbate extant insecurities caused by its
rapidly growing material capabilities and military power. Other states’ defen-
sive reactions to this uncertainty in turn feed back and, by appearing threaten-
ing to Beijing, further intensify the security dilemma. Ultimately, both sides
end up even more insecure and worse off.
Fourth, a signiªcant amount of the action-reaction dynamic evident in
the Asia Paciªc—particularly in those states already possessing advanced
militaries—manifests not as surging defense spending or quantitative person-
nel or arms buildups but as less easily measurable—but no less important—
efforts to enhance military capabilities. The region has yet to witness traditional,
full-scale arms races. Increases to defense spending appear roughly consistent
with economic growth and seem sustainable, for now. At least outside China,
leaders appear to have judged that targeted measures, rather than reºexive, re-
ciprocal buildups reminiscent of the dreadnought race of a century ago, are
more effective at enhancing military power in the twenty-ªrst century. This
trend is evident in the relatively efªcient steps that the United States and
China’s neighbors have taken to shift their postures toward likely trouble
spots, strengthen alliance coordination and military interoperability, preposi-
tion military assets, expand joint exercises and force rotations, and so forth.

125. Xi, “Work Together for a Bright Future of China-U.S. Cooperative Partnership.”
 International Security 39:2 88

States across the region are adopting these measures in a manner consistent
with the security dilemma logic.
Finally, perceived intentions are signiªcant in determining the incidence and
intensity of security dilemmas. Even under anarchy, states’ military policy re-
sponses to others are shaped not just by the other side’s objectively identiªable
capabilities, but also by international politics: the degree of mutual strategic
(mis)trust, which in turn powerfully shapes how attempts at reassurance (i.e.,
signaling status quo intentions) are perceived.

Conclusion

The rise of China and rapid economic development throughout the Asia
Paciªc have changed the distribution of material capabilities in the region,
raising the specter of a worsening and destabilizing military competition. This
article has examined the salience of one possible driver of the action-reaction
mutual arming already under way. Traditional, full-scale security dilemma–
induced arms races do not appear to be occurring—at least not yet. Neverthe-
less, there is evidence of a security dilemma–driven spiral gradually unfolding
between China and several states that is driving investments in military capa-
bilities and that may worsen signiªcantly in the years ahead.
While the objective fact of China’s rapidly expanding material capabilities
may be likely to elicit balancing responses from its neighbors to at least some
degree under most circumstances, the pace and scale of Beijing’s military
buildup, its tendency to dismiss other states’ concerns, and its low transpar-
ency about actual spending, capabilities, and intentions seem to be exacerbat-
ing regional tensions and, consequently threat perceptions vis-à-vis Beijing.
Meanwhile, Washington’s and other states’ policies and messages of status
quo intentions appear to be widely misinterpreted within the Chinese govern-
ment as confrontational, even revisionist.
While the sources of security dilemma military competition may have deep
structural roots, in the Asia Paciªc today, its intensity is heavily contingent on
situational variables—uncertainty, misperceptions, strategic mistrust, and the
failure to establish credible assurances of restraint. Indeed, if the involved
states recognize that current tensions are to some degree driven by a security
dilemma, opportunities to ameliorate frictions exist. Speciªc to China’s rise
and its consequences, ªve types of steps may be particularly effective. Given
space constraints, we focus our recommendations speciªcally on the United
States and China.
First, Beijing and Washington must both recognize that they are at least par-
 Racing toward Tragedy? 89

tially caught in a security dilemma. Self-understood defensively oriented poli-

cies are generating insecurity and military responses on the other side that
make both countries less secure and trigger new rounds of competition. The
United States must avoid being unnecessarily provocative in its strategic
moves and rhetoric, more proactively explaining the comprehensive (not
military-speciªc) nature of its growing focus on the Asia Paciªc and linking it
explicitly to a stable regional status quo that serves the interests of all. China’s
leaders need to appreciate the security dilemma as a concept—and as a secu-
rity problem that threatens China’s own interests—and adopt measures to
signiªcantly reduce widespread uncertainty about Beijing’s military capabili-
ties and intentions. China must recognize that its rise is not occurring in a stra-
tegic vacuum; while it has the right to develop military power commensurate
with its coveted status, regardless of its true intentions, under anarchy doing
so will have consequences as other states adopt measures to enhance their own
security. Yet anarchy is by no means determinative of outcomes; without major
changes to its policies and rhetoric, Beijing’s military buildup may trigger even
more severe, and unwelcome, defensive responses from the United States and
others. Even well-intentioned states whose leaders do not harbor what Beijing
often uncritically dismisses as “ulterior motives” to “contain China’s peaceful
rise” are likely to respond to its growing capabilities and uncertainty over its
future intentions in ways that will leave China less secure. For leaders on
both sides to acknowledge a security dilemma at work is to open up a bargain-
ing space for reciprocal steps to manage and moderate the otherwise poten-
tially dangerous spirals of competition.
Second, each side should do more to candidly share information about its
interpretations of the other’s policies and rhetoric. To do so effectively necessi-
tates more active diplomacy—dialogues, exchanges, and ongoing intergovern-
mental working groups—and this must be a two-way street. The Strategic and
Economic Dialogue held annually among policymakers in Washington
and Beijing is a good ªrst step. The goal of these dialogues is to provide more
systematic and credible information about the intentions of the other side. This
is particularly important in the area of intermilitary dialogues, where both
sides must candidly explain their strategic intentions, operational goals, and
doctrines. Intermilitary dialogues have increased, but remain infrequent,
under-institutionalized, and superªcial. They must not be conditional on the
vicissitudes of political relations.
Third, both sides should increase transparency of their military capabilities,
strategic objectives, and military policy decisionmaking. Greater transparency
can reduce uncertainty, thereby decreasing the risks of miscalculations that
 International Security 39:2 90

lead to war. Washington must more effectively explain why exactly China’s
low transparency harms strategic trust, making clear how the paucity of reli-
able information creates strong incentives for defensively oriented worst-case
scenario planning. Beijing should understand that if its motives are in fact
status quo-oriented, it does both itself and its neighbors a severe disservice by
not being more transparent about the drivers and content of its military poli-
cies. Regardless of per capita income or other developmental metrics, China
has the world’s second-largest economy and military budget, with both grow-
ing rapidly. Under these conditions, and regardless of the Chinese Communist
Party’s and PLA’s extremely conservative political culture and traditions, for
policymaking to remain a closed and opaque system is unnecessarily de-
stabilizing and invites miscalculation and military competition.
Fourth, both sides should establish and strengthen diplomatic mechanisms
for bargaining. When the presence of a security dilemma is recognized by both
sides, mechanisms need to be available for leaders to offer reciprocal, and
veriªable, gestures of restraint. These sorts of bargains will ultimately need to
be negotiated at the highest levels. Beijing and Washington also have strong
incentives to signiªcantly expand routine communications and strengthen
personal relationships at all levels, which help to build conªdence gener-
ally and, in the event of an unintended clash, can also signiªcantly enhance
crisis management.
Finally, China, the United States, and other countries in the region need to
continue to shape and improve the wider political and strategic context in
which military competition is unfolding. One check on security dilemma–
driven military competition is the diffuse beneªts in other domains (e.g., polit-
ical, economic) put at risk by worsening spirals and strategic rivalry. Even
in the military domain, cooperation in other areas—such as nontraditional
security—can facilitate conªdence building and expand the aperture beyond
an exclusive focus of leaders on areas of friction and potential threat. The
involvement of the PLA Navy in the 2014 RIMPAC multilateral exercises and,
since 2008, the multinational antipiracy operation in the Gulf of Aden have
demonstrated mutually beneªcial gains from cooperation. With regard to
maritime and territorial sovereignty disputes, until peaceful resolutions are
achieved, the likelihood of an unintended clash can be reduced signiªcantly
through concrete and enforceable codes of conduct, shared exploitation of re-
sources in the disputed areas, side payments, enhanced crisis management
mechanisms, and regular investments in active diplomacy.
Not all military competition in the Asia Paciªc in driven by the security di-
 Racing toward Tragedy? 91

lemma logic, nor can all security dilemmas be solved through diplomatic bar-
gains and policies of reassurance. There are no guarantees that any of the above
steps will dramatically reverse the worsening strategic environment in the Asia
Paciªc, much less end strategic rivalry and military competition. China’s rise is
ongoing, and its true intentions are unknowable. While its provocative policies
vis-à-vis maritime and territorial sovereignty claims present serious grounds for
concern, especially regarding whether its leaders grasp how its policies are per-
ceived outside China, a clash is by no means predetermined.
While history teaches us to be wary of security dilemma–induced military
competition and war, it also demonstrates that not all cases of rising powers
end tragically. No outcome is inevitable. How current frictions play out will be
contingent on the choices of leaders. Given the catastrophic regional and
global consequences of a war in the Asia Paciªc today—recognized by leaders
on both sides—even modest steps to reduce uncertainty and engender re-
straint are worthwhile. If Washington is to make the ªrst move, it should make
the steps delineated above one condition for possible future conferral upon
China of Beijing’s coveted recognition as a “great power.” The “new-type great
power relations” concept proposed by President Xi remains, at best, vague
in speciªcs, and Washington’s acceptance of it today is ill advised.126 The
concept, however, appears to be predicated at least partially on an encour-
aging, and shared, understanding of one obvious truth: avoiding a tragic race
to military conºict is in the best interests of all states in the Asia Paciªc, espe-
cially China.

126. See Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Not-So-Empty Talk: The Danger of China’s
‘New Type of Great-Power Relations’ Slogan,” Foreign Affairs, October 9, 2014, http://www
.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142178/andrew-s-erickson-and-adam-p-liff/not-so-empty-talk.