TIE511 2018 PQ

QUESTION 2A)
i. An Engineering manager is distinguished from other good managers by the fact that
he simultaneously uses an ability to apply engineering principles and skills in
organizing and directing resources, people and projects to ensure that engineering
goals are achieved.
ii.
 Input-Output relationship of a work-system

iii. Functions of planning dept.

 Knowledge of complete details and requirements of the product to be
manufactured/service to be rendered.
 Pre – determination of future objectives
 Pre – determination the design of product to be manufactured/service to be
rendered.
 Pre – determining the quantity of materials to be consumed.
 Pre – determining the standard of quality of products to be manufactured/service
to be rendered
 Pre – determining the sequence of operations.
 Pre – determining the capacity of equipments.
2B)
i. 8 common Engineering Skills
 holistic view of problems situations
 pragmatic approach to problem definition
 analytical know-how, synthesising skills
 modelling skills
 creative thinking skills
 technical measurement
  systematic problem solving approach
 possession of large arsenal of problem solving tools

ii. Types of Decision making

 Decision making under Certainty: This decision situation arises when we know
with certainty which state of nature will occur at the time the decision will be
implemented.
 Decision making under Risk: If the chance of occurrence of each possible
condition or state of nature can be estimated in terms of numerical probability
values, the situation is Decision making under Risk.
 Decision making under Uncertainty: When the states of nature are unknown or
the probability of occurrence cannot be estimated, then the situation is known as
Decision under Uncertainty.
QUESTION 3A
i. Forecasting can be defined as the estimate of production sales of a company’s
product/service in future. It is the art and science of predicting future events.
ii. Forecasting is a necessary tool as it helps in;
 Production planning
 Demand forecasts
 Inventory control
 Advertising planning
 Investment cash flows
 Corporate planning
 Cost projections
 Budgeting
3B)

S/N YEAR X Y X2 XY
1 2009 20 18 400 360
2 2010 60 37 3600 2220
3 2011 100 35 10000 3500
4 2012 140 78 19600 10920
5 2013 180 56 32400 10080
6 2014 220 75 48400 16500
7 2015 260 118 67600 30680
8 2016 300 136 90000 40800
9 2017 340 117 115600 39780
10 2018 380 165 144400 62700
SUM 2000 835 532000 217540
QUESTION 4A)
i. Qualitative forecasting methods
It is a statistical technique to make predictions about the future which uses expert judgment
instead of numerical analysis. This method of forecasting depends on the opinions and
knowledge of highly qualified and experienced employees to predict the future outcomes.
The types of qualitative forecasting methods are listed below:

1. Executive opinions: The opinions of experts from different departments are considered
and averaged to forecast the future sales. This method of forecasting can be done easily and
quickly without the necessity of elaborate statistics. But the main disadvantage is that it depends
on individual opinions that may not be unanimous and can vary from individual to individual
which could lead to wrong forecasting.
2. Delphi technique: In this method, panels of experts are selected and are individually
questioned about the upcoming events. They do not form a group. For long-range forecasting,
this method is beneficial and very effective. The main disadvantage of this method is that from
the returns there is lack of and low reliability.
3. Consumer surveys: In this method, the survey is conducted directly on the customers on
their purchases. The surveys can be done through telephone contacts, personal interviews or
questionnaires to obtain data from the customers. This method requires extensive statistical
analysis to test regarding the consumer behavior.
4. Salesforce polling: In this method, the forecast is done based on the opinions of
salespeople who have steady interactions with the clients. As they are closest to the customers,
they can better predict the requirements of the customers for the future market. The main
advantage of this forecasting method is that it is very simple to use and understand. The
information can be segregated easily into different categories. But the drawback is that the
salespeople can be either optimistic or pessimistic about their predictions and this could lead to
inaccurate forecasting.
In general, all the forecasting techniques assume the underlying relationship in the past and predict
the relationship for the future. Most of the techniques are based on some previous data, opinions,
surveys etc.

Quantitative forecasting methods

It is a statistical technique to make predictions about the future which uses numerical measures
and prior effects to predict future events. These techniques are based on models of mathematics
and in nature are mostly objective. They are highly dependent on mathematical calculations.
The major perceived disadvantage of concurrent engineering is that it increases the time spent in
preliminary design, when the design staff is anxious to finalize details and release drawings.
There are two types of quantitative forecasting methods which are listed below:

1. Time-series models – These models examine the past data patterns and forecast the future
on the basis of underlying patterns that are obtained from those data. There are many types of
time series models like Simple and weighted moving average, seasonal indexes, trend
projections, simple mean and exponential smoothing.
2. Associative models – are also known as casual models. The model assumes that the
variable that is being forecasted is associated with other variables. The predictions are made
based on these associations. The linear regression is one of the simplest forms of an associative
model of forecasting. This regression line forecasts the dependent variable based on the selected
value of the independent variable.
Quantitative forecasting methods are very easy to predict based on the underlying information.
The data can be used to forecast automatically without many complications. Any person can
easily forecast on the basis of available data.
One of the main disadvantages of this method is its dependence on the data. The entire
forecasting depends on the data of the underlying model. An error in the available data can lead
to wrong forecasting. These methods can also be used only if the proper data is available. This
method cannot also evaluate the effect of changes in the other variables involved.

ii. Objective functions define the objective of the optimization. They are mathematical
expressions of the objective of a business problem.
 Constraints which is also known as restrictions are mathematical expressions of the
limitations that are involved in fulfilling the objectives; they are caused by scarce or
limited resources which may include money, space, manpower, materials and so on.
3B)
I) There are about five different rational approaches to decision making under
uncertainty:
1. The Subjectivist Approach
Here the probability of the state of nature occurring is estimated subjectively and then the
decision making carried out as in Decision making under Risk.
2. The Pessimist Approach
The pessimist reasons that if anything goes wrong, it is sure to happen to him. He does not see
himself as a lucky man. The decision criterion here is known as MAXIMUM; i.e. take the
maximum of the minimum values.
3. The Optimist Approach
While the pessimist takes decisions in a manner that suggests for risk, the optimist is a risk lover.
The decision criterion for the optimist is to select the course of action with the best of the best.
This decision criterion is known as MAXIMAX.

4. The Inbetweenist Approach

You observe that the pessimist is too cautious in the risky game of business. On the other hand
the optimist appears too audacious. Most people will like to be inbetween these two extremes.
By introducing a weighting index of the pessimist value of decision (α) a better balanced
decision can be made. Thus, for each course of action or strategy,
The weighted value = α(worst of pay-off) +
Of pay-off (1 - α) (Best of pay-off)
Where α lies between 0 and 1. The criterion is the maximization of the weighted pay-off. For
those inclined towards the pessimist thinking are likely to take values of α greater than .5 while
those the optimist inclination may choose values less than .5.
5. The Regretist Approach
The regretist is often full of regret for the difference between the outcome that he realizes and the
maximum he could have realized for the particular state of nature which prevailed. The decision
criterion in the Regretist approach is to minimize maximum Regret of the decision maker. It is
known as the MINIMAX criterion.
4b(ii) Inventory can be defined as an idle resource that has economic value.
Costs associated with inventory management
1. Ordering Cost
2. Holding cost
3. Shortage cost
4. Spoilage cost
5. Carrying cost
5A) Organisation structure is the systematic arrangement of people working for an organization,
their positions and the relationships between them.
Factors affecting variables’ values
 Number of functions
 Types of Production/service
 Geographical spread
 Volumes of operations
 Types of Skills

5b)

Total Man Hours No of personnels Approx No of

S/No FREQ STD. MAN HOURS
(freq x std man hrs) for each skill personnels
1 2450 2.36 5782 3.854666667 4
2 3500 0.98 3430 2.286666667 2
3 22733 0.24 5455.92 3.63728 4
4 8740 2.45 21413 14.27533333 14
5 8839 0.78 6894.42 4.59628 5
6 5860 1.65 9669 6.446 6
7 9050 0.65 5882.5 3.921666667 4
8 4160 0.35 1456 0.970666667 1
9 5456 1.25 6820 4.546666667 5
10 12495 0.56 6997.2 4.6648 5
11 3235 2.4 7764 5.176 5
12 14906 0.82 12222.92 8.148613333 8
63

iii) 3 supervisors would be needed as only 3 jobs need 6 or more personnels.