Guidelines for Uncertainties (physics TSM)
Guidelines for Uncertainties (physics TSM)
Uncertainties
What is an uncertainty?
Physics is a quantitative science, and experimental work is based on measurements. There is never a perfect
or absolute measurement, and a degree of uncertainty is associated with all measurements. Uncertainties
are the result of human involvement in making measurements, the instruments or equipment being used
or environmental factors that can be difficult to control during data collection. Care should be taken to
recognize and reduce uncertainties. It is important to record all measurements with a corresponding
uncertainty.
Human involvement
Subtle differences can be introduced when humans take the same measurement several times. Reaction
times for starting and stopping the timer are not always the same nor are they symmetrical, for example.
Repeating the timing for the same distance may reveal an uncertainty larger than the basic precision of the
measurements. Uncertainties due to reaction time often become apparent through repeated
measurements under the same conditions.
Parallax error is caused by reading an analogue device at an angle to the scale markings. Depending on
how observations are made, a degree of uncertainty caused by parallax can be introduced. If a
measurement on an analogue scale is always taken by looking from the left of the scale, then
measurements may be slightly larger than they should be. This can be reduced through good experimental
practice and ensuring devices are read in an optimum way. Parallax error may appear as a systematic shift
on a graph.
Environmental factors
Environmental factors could include temperature, air resistance or background radiation. For example, in an
experiment to measure how the coefficient of restitution of a squash ball depends on the temperature of
the ball, the time lapse between heating the ball and making the measurements will cause a change in the
temperature of the ball. While such sources of uncertainty cannot be entirely eliminated, steps can be taken
to reduce their impact.
As part of an experiment to determine the acceleration of freefall, a student measures the time it takes for a
ball to roll a given distance down an incline as 2.3 s. In determining the sizes of the uncertainties, it should
first be recognized that there is a limit to the precision of the stopwatch and a limit to the precision of the
metre rule.
All measurements involve two reference points. The first reference point for a time measurement would be
at 0. The time read-out of 0.0 s could require a brief interval of 0.067 s before it begins timing. That is, the
zero reading is really –0.067 s. Or, when the timer starts it could already be at a time of 0.0123 s. It can be
estimated that any zero reading has an uncertainty of one-half the least count.
The second reference point is the measurement of the event. A measurement of 2.3 s could have been
2.2876 s rounded up or 2.3210 s rounded down. In either case, the measurement could be off by up to one-
half the least count, or ± 0.05 s. However, this uncertainty would be inconsistent with the one-decimal place
precision of the measured time.
In the worst possible case, twice one-half the least count equals plus or minus the least count. The timing in
this example would be (2.3 ± 0.1) s, as noted in the table on measurement and least count. Uncertainties
associated with a single measurement must be expressed to the same degree of precision as the
measurement. This least count of the timer is the minimum uncertainty that should be recorded for a single
measurement. This is the minimum uncertainty, although often it is greater and this normally becomes
evident with repeated measurements.
2.3 s 0.1 s
2.34 s 0.01 s
2.345 s 0.001 s
Correct Incorrect
Propagation of uncertainties
Processing data may involve several mathematical operations, such as sum and difference, product and
quotient, exponential powers, and trigonometric and logarithmic functions. The required basic rules are
provided in the Physics data booklet.
All processed data should be presented clearly. Basic mathematical operations do not need to be
illustrated. More specific and complicated calculations should be illustrated with a sample calculation.
When making repeated measurements, the uncertainty of the mean can be determined by taking one-half
the range between the maximum and minimum values. Symmetry can be assumed, so that the plus and
minus values are the same.
For example, the extended length of a spring under the same tension is recorded five times, as displayed in
the table on the length and mean length of a spring.
ΔL = ± 0.1 cm L / cm
11.5 11.16
11.0
11.1
11.0
11.2
Correct Incorrect
T = 1.7618 ± 2.4123%
T 2 = (1.7618)2 ± 4.8246%
= 3.1039 s2 ± 4.8246%
= 3.1039 s2 ± 0.14975 s
= (3.10 ± 0.15) s2
Rounding to appropriate significant figures and precision takes place only at the end of the processing.
Screenshot of the Show Formula function turned on during data processing using a spreadsheet program
Graphing uncertainties
Uncertainty in raw data should be propagated and can be shown as uncertainty bars on graphs.
Uncertainties in processed data should be considered in the interpretation of the data. When a linear graph
is established and the gradient is meaningful, uncertainty bars should be used to establish the uncertainty
in the value of the gradient.
Automatic gradient determination
Software that automatically determines gradients may be used, but the student must make clear that they
understand the process taking place.
Experimental example
A student conducted an experiment using video to analyse the projectile motion of a ball launched
horizontally from a table. The student clicked on the image position for consecutive time intervals. The
software determined the speed at each position, as shown in the table on time, X and Y positions and
vertical speed. A graph on vertical speed against time was generated automatically, and the gradient was
determined by the software. Acceleration due to gravity is the vertical acceleration of the projectile. The
student described what was done. An equation or sample calculation is not required for the experimentally
determined value of acceleration, but the student must explain how the gradient represents acceleration.
Uncertainties should still be addressed and stated in a format consistent with the final value.
The student could use this result as part of an investigation into a factor that affects the acceleration of a
falling object.
Uncertainty bars
Uncertainty bars are added to the dependent variable on graphs. This can be achieved using graphing
software. The size of the uncertainty bar should reflect the size of the uncertainty for that data point and be
based on the spread of data obtained from repeated measurements. It is acceptable to assume that
uncertainty bars will be symmetrical around each data point.
Data outliers
When processing or graphing experimental data, there may be a data point that does not fit the overall
pattern or trend of the other data, as seen in the figure on an example of an outlier on a graph. This is a
potential outlier. In physics, outliers are most likely to occur as a result of human error such as a
methodological fault or an irregularity in the equipment or environment. These can be recognized and
corrected at the time of collecting data. The quantity in question can be remeasured. When adding the
best-fit line or best-fit curve, a decision needs to be made whether to include or exclude any possible
outliers, and a justification should be provided.
The graph illustrates an example of a genuine outlier. The student reasoned that a linear relationship exists
between the variables, and that it did not make sense that one point should be so far off the obvious trend.
The approach used in DP mathematics to identify outliers is not required in DP physics.
A polynomial curve that passes very close to all the data points can be added, as seen in the figure on data
points joined by a polynomial curve. However, the nature of the curve is unlikely to be supported by the
laws of physics.
The equation of the curve provided by Excel is y = 0.0253x5 − 0.4229x4 + 1.3446x3 + 11.207x2 − 82.835x +
170.75.
The final example shows a curve that passes close to each data point and through the uncertainty bars.
Curve passing through each data point and the uncertainty bars
Graph obtained after attempting to linearize data by taking the reciprocal of one variable
An alternative approach also exists, as seen in the figure on plotting the log (dependent variable) versus the
independent variable.
Alternative attempt to linearize data by plotting the log of one variable against the other variable
Experiment Indicators
A student investigated the ohmic behaviour of an The accepted value of the resistivity of aluminium is
electrical conducting material. The results were used 2.8 × 10–8 W m. A textbook reference or online
to determine the resistivity. source must be given for this value.
The experimental value of the resistivity of
The experimental range of the experimental value
aluminium was calculated to be (3.0 ± 0.5) × 10–8 W
includes the accepted value.
m.
The percentage difference is calculated as follows.
2.8 − 3.0
= × 100%
2.8
0.2
= × 100%
2.8
≈ 7%
Learning opportunities
Calculate the percentage uncertainty in the experimental result and comment on this in the evaluation.
0.5
= × 100%
3.0
≈ 17%
Experiment Indicators
A student investigated the internal resistance of a 6- The y-axis intercept, corresponding to the negative
V battery. They measured the voltage and current of internal resistance, is –(0.5925 ± 0.0866) Ω. That is,
with digital meters for a variety of resistance loads. r ± Δr = (0.59 ± 0.09) Ω
Following relevant theory,
Note: For clarity, uncertainty bars and max–min lines
ε = I(R = r) are not shown on the graph.
ε
=R+r The student was able to find the manufacturer’s
I
ε specification sheet online and discovered that the
R+r= internal resistance of a new battery would be
I
ε 0.483 Ω (no uncertainties were listed). Background
R= − r
I information states that temperature affects the
1 internal resistance and that the internal resistance
R=ε − r
I increases as the battery is used.
y = mx + c
The student speculated that the battery’s internal
The student constructed a graph of the calculated resistance may have increased over repeated
load resistance R against the reciprocal of the measurements. The experimental value of 0.59 ±
1 0.09 Ω compared to 0.483 Ω seems reasonable,
current . This graph showed only the first four data
I given this information.
points so that the view of the y-intercept was
enhanced.
Graph
Learning opportunities
The experimental value of internal resistance and its uncertainty range did not include the manufacturer’s
value (rmin = 0.50 Ω > rnew = 0.48 Ω). The student’s results were close and of the same order of magnitude,
and the difference was addressed in a plausible way. However, this aspect should have been noted by the
student.
Experiment Indicators
A student conducted a simple sonometer laboratory The student sketched the results in a graph of
exercise and quoted the known equations relating tension against fλ, which refers to wave speed.
frequency f, tension T and mass per unit length μ. In They quoted an R2 correlation value of 0.985 and
the background and theory section, the equation T thereby claimed that their hypothesis of a “direct
= v2 μ was stated. relationship between tension and frequency” was
99% certain.
Graph
Learning opportunities
While expressing speed in units “Hz cm” is acceptable, there is a contradiction between the known theory,
the graphical analysis and the conclusion shown here. If the student had understood the known theory,
they would not have forced a linear fit. The student should, therefore, make a comparison to the known
theory.
No attention was paid to the y-intercept other than calculating the gradient range. No attempt was made
to explain what negative tension means (not even as a systematic error) and how this would cause a
resonating frequency from 0 to about 75 Hz. An explanation of the physical meaning of the results was
also missing.
Experiment Indicators
A student investigated the relationship of projectile A graph of launch angle against distance was
range and launch angle. plotted with uncertainty bars.
They obtained a range of angles and propagated A single best-fit line was applied to the whole data
uncertainties, as seen in the uncertainty bars. set, and the student stated that as the launch angle
increases, the distance increases.
Graph
Learning opportunities
At ± 2 m, the uncertainties appear large. While a linear fit lies within the uncertainty bars, this is not
justified by theory. Touching all the uncertainty bars is not a justification here, as the data scatter is not
linear. If the student had constructed the minimum and maximum gradients, the values could have
ranged from positive to negative, including a zero gradient.
The student should have commented about the y-intercept at 7 m. How does this relate to the
experiment?
The student should have referred to the theory while conducting the analysis. One thing is obvious from
the graph: the maximum range was obtained at about 45°.
Further data processing could have been carried out by referring to the textbook equation for projectile
range and drawing a graph of range against sin(2θ). The ideal result would be a line with the maximum
range at sin(2θ) = 1, which is 45°.
The student should appreciate the size and direction of the systematic shift in the data and consider this
aspect in the evaluation section.
The student should consider either of the following.
• The y-intercept is 0.1201 s2, or there is a systematic shift in the time of 0.346 s, which suggests that all
measured times are approximately 0.35 s shorter than they should be.
• The x-intercept is −0.0325 m (found by solving for x when y = 0), which suggests that all measured
lengths are approximately 3.3 cm shorter than they should be.
Refractive index
A student investigated how the temperature of water affects the refractive index of light. A standard
textbook method was followed. A fish tank with a water heater was set up, and a laser was secured at a 45°
angle above the water surface. A ruler was fixed at the bottom of the tank (under water), and the distance
from where the laser beam hit the ruler was read off.
The water depth was measured and, using the two perpendicular lengths, the angle of refraction was
determined. The 45° incident angle remained fixed for all temperatures. This method was repeated for
every 5°C for a temperature range from 5°C to 90°C, as seen in the table on temperature versus
experimental value of refractive index.
The measured distances were a few centimetres, with a claimed precision of 1 mm. The incident angle was
measured with a protractor with an uncertainty of 1°, and the refracted angle was calculated.
The student discovered that the refractive index of water decreases as temperature increases, as displayed
in the table on temperature versus experimental value of refractive index. The results were feasible and
suggested a curve that resembled known theory.
Temperature vs experimental value of refractive index for water (only selected data are shown)
5 1.238
20 1.287
90 1.192
Upon closer examination, however, the student began to question their methodology and the results.
The textbook value of the refractive index of water at 20°C is 1.333. The accepted value was not included in
the experimental range. The student believed an error must have occurred in the either method or the data
analysis.
The student noted that other factors cause a variation in the refractive index, including:
• the wavelength of light
• effect of atmospheric pressure on the refractive index
• purity of water.
For all these factors, only the fourth and fifth decimal places would be affected.
The student calculated the range of their refractive index values. The results showed a change in the index
of n90° − n5° = (1.192 − 1.238) = −0.046. In contrast, the theoretical change for the same temperature range
should have been only −0.012. The student’s range of refractive index was nearly four times greater than
the theoretical range. They realized that the problem was not a systematic error.
The following is a list of weaknesses in the method and relevant improvements.
The uncertainty in the distance was Aligning the zero end of the ruler while under water required the
stated as 1 mm. zero point to be directly below the interface point on the surface of
the water.
The laser beam itself was a few millimetres wide.
Looking through the water revealed some distortion of the image.
These issues suggest that a larger uncertainty should be considered.
Precision is low when calculating Vary the incident angle and, with the corresponding refracted angle,
the refractive index from a single use a graph to determine the best-fit line that represents the
set of angles. refractive index value. This would improve precision.
The use of a fish tank and the low Replace the fish tank with a hollow transparent prism on a turntable.
precision of the angle Measure the laser beam deviation several metres across the room.
measurements are also weaknesses. The uncertainty would be a significantly smaller percentage of the
actual measurement.
A polynomial best-fit curve of Relate the refractive index to the water density and look for a linear
refractive index against function.
temperature is only qualitatively With an improved method and precision, a more accurate result
related to known theory. might be obtained.