Unit 4 Notes – Probability, Random Variables, and Probability

Distributions
TPS - Chapter 5
Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation:
 A random process generates results that are determined by chance.
 An outcome is the result of a trial of a random process.
 An event is a collection of outcomes.
 Simulation is a way to model random events, such that simulated outcomes closely
match real-world outcomes. You could use coins, dice, or random number table as
examples.
 The relative frequency of an outcome or event in simulated or empirical data can be
used to estimate the probability of that outcome or event.
 The law of large numbers states that simulated (empirical) probabilities tend to get
closer to the true probability as the number of trials increases.

Introduction to Probability:
 The sample space of a random process is the set of all possible non-overlapping
outcomes.
 If all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely, then the probability an event E will
occur is defined as the fraction:
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
 The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, inclusive.
 The probability of the complement of an event E, E’, or 𝐸 𝐶 (not E) is equal to 1 − 𝑃(𝐸).
 Probabilities of events in repeatable situations can be interpreted as the relative
frequency with which the event will occur in the long run.

Mutually Exclusive Events:

 The probability that events A and B both will occur, sometimes called the joint
probability, is the probability of the intersection of A and B, denoted by 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).
 Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur at the same time. So
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.
Conditional Probability:

 The probability that event A will occur given that event B has occurred is called a
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
conditional probability and denoted by 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = .
𝑃(𝐵)
 The multiplication rule states that the probability that events A and B both will occur is
equal to the probability that event A will occur multiplied by the probability that event B
will occur, given that A has occurred. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).
 Unit 4 Notes – Probability, Random Variables, and Probability
Distributions
Independent Events and Unions of Events:

 Events A and B are independent if, and only if, knowing whether event A has occurred
(or will occur) does not change the probability that event B will occur.
 If, and only if, events A and B are independent, then 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐵), 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵).
 The probability that event A or event B (or both) will occur is the probability of the
union of A and B, denoted by 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵).
 The addition rule states that the probability that event A or event B or both will occur is
equal to the probability that event A will occur plus the probability that event B will
occur minus the probability that both events A and B will occur. This is denoted by
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).

TPS - Chapter 6
Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions:

 The values of a random variable are the numerical outcomes of random behavior.
 A discrete random variable is a variable that can only take a countable number of
values. Each value has a probability associated with it. The sum of the possible values
must be 1.
 A probability distribution can be represented as a graph, table, or function showing the
probabilities associated with values of a random variable.
 A cumulative probability distribution can be represented as a table or function showing
the probability of being less than or equal to each value of the random variable.
 An interpretation of a probability distribution provides information about the shape,
center, and spread of a population and allows one to make conclusions about the
population of interest.

Mean and Standard Deviation of Random Variables:

 A numerical value measuring a characteristic of a population or the distribution of a

random variable is known as a parameter, which is a single, fixed value.
 The mean, or expected value, for a discrete random variable X is
𝜇𝑥 = 𝐸(𝑋) = Σ𝑥𝑖 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 )
 The standard deviation for a discrete random variable X is 𝜎𝑥 = √Σ(𝑥𝑖 − 𝜇𝑥 )2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 )
 The variance is the standard deviation squared (𝜎 2 )
 Parameters for a discrete random variable should be interpreted using appropriate units
and within the context of a specific population.
 Unit 4 Notes – Probability, Random Variables, and Probability
Distributions

Combining Random Variables:

 For random variables X and Y and real numbers a and b, the mean of 𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏𝑌 is
𝑎𝜇𝑋 + 𝑏𝜇𝑌 .
 Two random variables are independent if knowing information about one of them does
not change the probability distribution of the other.
 For independent random variables X and Y and real numbers a and b, the variance of
𝑎𝑋 + 𝑏𝑌 is 𝑎2 𝜎𝑋2 + 𝑏 2 𝜎𝑌2 . (Add Variances – not standard deviations)
 For 𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑋, the probability distribution of the transformed random variable, Y, has
the same shape as the probability distribution for X, so long as 𝑎 > 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏 > 0. The
mean of Y is 𝜇𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝜇𝑋 . The standard deviation of Y is 𝜎𝑌 = |𝑏|𝜎𝑋 . In other words,
the mean is affected by adding, subtracting, multiplying, or dividing the data by a
constant. The standard deviation is only affected by multiplying or dividing.
Binomial Distribution:

 A binomial random variable, X, counts the number of successes in n repeated

independent trials, each trial having two possible outcomes (success or failure), with the
probability of success p and the probability of failure 1-p.
 The probability that a binomial random variable, X, has exactly x successes for n
independent trials, when the probability of success is p, is calculated as
𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥
𝑥
 Binomialpdf(n,p,x) calculates the probability of exactly x successes.
 Binomialcdf(n,p,x) calculates the probability of x or less success.
 If a random variable is binomial, 𝜇𝑥 = 𝑛𝑝 and 𝜎𝑥 = √𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝).

Geometric Distribution:

 For a sequence of independent trials, a geometric random variable, X, gives the number
of the trial on which the first success occurs. Each trial has two possible outcomes
(success or failure) with the probability of success p and the probability of failure 1-p.
 The probability that the first success for repeated independent trials with probability of
success p occurs on trial x is calculated as
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = (1 − 𝑝)𝑥−1 ∙ 𝑝

1 √1−𝑝
 If a random variable is geometric, 𝜇𝑥 = 𝑝 and 𝜎𝑥 = 𝑝
 Geometpdf(p,x) find the probability the first success occurs of the x trial.
 Geometcdf(p,x) finds the probability the first success occurs in less than or equal to x
trials.