Chapter 7: Random Variables

Section 7.1: Discrete and Continuous Random Variables

Random Variable: A variable, usually represented by an X, that has a single numerical value (determined
by chance) for each outcome of an experiment.

Examples: 1) X = The number of seniors who get into college early.

2) X = The number of defective tires on a car
3) X = A random number chosen between 0 and 1
4) X = The lifetime of a light bulb.

a) Discrete Random Variable: Has a finite or countable number of values. (Examples 1 and 2)

b) Continuous Random variable: Has infinitely many values and the values can be associated with
a continuous scale so that there are no gaps or interruptions. (Examples 3 and 4)

Probability Distribution: Gives the probability of each value of a random variable.

Eggs-ample: Suppose the random variable X is the number of broken eggs in a randomly selected
carton of one dozen “store brand” eggs at a certain supermarket. Since the number of broken eggs is a
discrete random variable, the probability distribution is a list or a table of the possible values of X and
the corresponding probabilities

Number of Broken Eggs: 0 1 2 3 4 5

Probability: .65 .20 .08 .04 .02 .01

Requirements for a probability distribution:

1) p( X ) 1
2)0  p( X )  1

Here is a probability Histogram that represents the above probability distribution:

Probability Histogram
P(X > 3) =
0.7
0.6
P(X  1) =
Probability

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
P(X < 2) =
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of Broken Eggs P(X  4) =

1
Tossing Coins:
What is the probability distribution of the discrete random variable X that counts the number of heads in
four tosses of a coin?

Let’s create a probability histogram for this distribution.

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For a continuous random variable we use density curves, not histograms, to graphically represent the
distribution:

Random Number Example: X is a random number between 0 and 2. The distribution is a continuous
distribution and is represented by the uniform density curve below:

P(X)

0.5

X
0 2

The probability of any event is the area under the density curve

P(1  x  2) 

P(0  x  0.5) 

P(x  0.3) 

P(x  1.5) 

P(x  1) 

P(x  0.7) 

If the curve is not uniform, you would need to use geometry or calculus to find the probability of an event

And don’t forget, the most familiar density curve is the standard normal curve. The Normal Distribution
is a probability distribution.
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Section 7.2: Means and Variances of Random Variables
The Expected Value of a random variable represents the average value of the outcomes. The expected
value is the mean of a probability distribution. It is found by finding the value of:

E   ( x  p( x))

Looking back at the Probability distribution from the last example, we can calculate, on average, how
many broken eggs there will be in a carton:

Number of Broken Eggs: 0 1 2 3 4 5

Probability: .65 .20 .08 .04 .02 .01

This means that “on average” we can expect that _________ eggs will be broken in a randomly selected
carton of eggs.

Getting the Flu: The probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 people will seek treatment for the flu during any
given hour at an emergency room is show in the probability distribution below.

x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) .12 .25 ? .24 .06

a) What is the probability that 2 people will seek treatment for the flu during any given hour at an
emergency room?

b.) What is the probability that at least 1 person will be treated for the flu in the next hour?

c.) What is the probability that 3 or more people will be treated for the flu in the next hour?

d.) What is the average number of people that an emergency room can expect to treat for the flu during
any given hour?

4
Expected Value and Games:
 Expected value can also be used to determine whether or not a particular game is “fair” and therefore
worth playing.

Example: Patrick offers Christine to play a dice game whereby he will pay her $6 if she rolls a six, but
Christine would have to pay Patrick $1 every time she rolls a number other than 6. Should Christine agree
to play this game over a long period of time?

To find the expected value of a game multiply each payoff by its probability and then add.

Based on the above definition, the expected value for Christine is:

1
This means that for every roll of the die, Christine will earn, on average, $ , which also means that
6
1
Patrick will lose, on average $ for every roll of the die.
6

If Patrick and Christine were to play this game 100 times, how much money (on average) can Christine
expect to make? How much can Patrick expect to lose?

Fair Game: We say that a game is “fair” whenever its expected value is equal to zero. For example, you
win a dollar every time you toss a coin and get heads, and lose a dollar every time you get tails.

Zoot Suit Example: Would you be willing to play this game? You pay me $25 to play. I take a standard
deck of cards. I Shuffle the cards well. You pick 1 card at random. The suit of that card becomes your
winning suit. You do not put the card back. You pick 2 more cards at random. If those 2 cards are both
the winning suit, I will pay you $500. If they are not, I pay you nothing.

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The Mean, variance, and standard deviation of a probability distribution

1) Mean a.k.a. Expected Value  

 x  p(x)
2) Variance 1)  2 
 ( x   ) 2  p( x)

2)  2 
 [ x 2  p ( x)]   2

Note: The 2 formulas above are in the stat formula packet that you get on the AP

3) Standard Deviation (the square root of the variance)  

[x  p(x)]  
2 2

Example: Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the following probability distribution:

x P(x)
0 .3
1 .1
2 .2
3 .1
4 .3

Calculator Method:

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The Law of Large Numbers:
Draw independent observations at random from any population with finite mean µ. Decide how
accurately you would like to estimate µ. As the number of observations drawn increases, the mean 𝑥̅ of
the observed values eventually approaches the mean µ of the population as closely as you specified and
then stays that close.

Rules for means & variances for two random variables

Here is an illustration of these important statistical formulas (which are NOT included on your AP Stat
Formula packet)

If X and Y are any two random variables, then  x y   x   y

 x y   x   y

If X and Y are independent random variables, then  2 x y   2 x   2 y

 2 x y   2 x   2 y

(Note: Variances are added, not subtracted.)

Note: These "nice" rules do not hold for standard deviations

Example: Let’s say you started your own business on weekends. The business can bring you a profit on
Saturday and Sunday based on various (independent) scenarios. The profits and their respective
probabilities for Saturday and Sunday are listed below:

X= Saturday profit Based on the tables to the left please calculate:

x p(x) x 
$10.00 0.1 y 
$50.00 0.5
x  y 
$100.00 0.4
SUM 1 x  y 

Y= Sunday profit
 x2 
y p(y)
$20.00 0.2  y2 
$60.00 0.3
 x2   y2 
$80.00 0.5
SUM 1
x 
y 
 x  y 