WAZIR
THE STRATEGY AND CONSULTING CLUB
Presents
GURU AAR
VOLUME II
GURU AAR
GUESSTIMATE XXI
Estimate the Average Number of Photos
and Videos in a Person’s Phone Gallery
GURU AAR
SCOPE & ASSUMPTIONS
Scope:
Smartphone users worldwide are considered
The person should have owned a smartphone for at least one
year
Devices only for personal usage are considered
Pictures and videos only clicked using the phone’s camera are
considered
Assumptions:
Lifetime of a smartphone is 3 years
There are three types of phone camera users - Light users,
Moderate users, Heavy users
Light user click an average of 3 photos a day and shoot 1 video
in a week
© Wazir- The Strategy & Consulting Club, IIM Rohtak 1
GURU AAR
Assumptions (Continued):
Moderate user click an average of 7 photos a day and shoot 3
videos in a week
Heavy users click an average of 15 photos a day and shoot 7
videos in a week
Retention rate of photos and videos for Year 1 is 90% and 85%,
respectively; for Year 2 is 80% and 75%; and for Year 3 is 70%
and 65%
© Wazir- The Strategy & Consulting Club, IIM Rohtak 2
GURU AAR
Approach
STEP 1
We divide smartphone users into light, moderate, and heavy users
STEP 2
The phone gallery of each user is divided into photos and videos
clicked using the phone camera.
A light user clicks 3 photos a day and 1 video a week
A moderate user clicks 7 photos a day and 3 videos a week
A heavy user clicks 15 photos a day and 7 videos a week
STEP 3
We calculate the number of photos and videos for each type of user
are converted to annual figures
A light user clicks 1095 photos and 52 videos in an year
A moderates users clicks 6132 photos and 52 videos in an year
A heavy user clicks 13140 photos and 819 videos in an year
© Wazir- The Strategy & Consulting Club, IIM Rohtak 3
GURU AAR
STEP 4
We calculate the retention of photos and videos at the end of each
year for each type of user
A light user retains 90%, 80%, and 70% of 1095 photos and 85%,
75%, and 65% of 52 videos in Years 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
That is:
90% of 1095 = 985.5 photos in Year 1
80% of 1095 = 876 photos in Year 2
70% of 1095 = 766.5 photos in Year 3
85% of 52 = 44.2 videos in Year 1
75% of 52 = 39 videos in Year 2
65% of 52 = 33.8 videos in Year 3
A light user retains 90%, 80%, and 70% of 2555 photos and 85%,
75%, and 65% of 156 videos in Years 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
That is:
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GURU AAR
STEP 4 (continued)
90% of 2555 = 2299.5 photos in Year 1
80% of 2555 = 2044 photos in Year 2
70% of 2555 = 1788.5 photos in Year 3
85% of 156 = 132.6 videos in Year 1
75% of 156 = 117 videos in Year 2
65% of 156 = 101.4 videos in Year 3
A heavy user retains 90%, 80%, and 70% of 5475 photos and
85%, 75%, and 65% of 364 videos in Years 1, 2, and 3,
respectively. That is:
90% of 5475 = 4927.5 photos in Year 1
80% of 5475 = 4380 photos in Year 2
70% of 5475 = 3832.5 photos in Year 3
85% of 364 = 309.5 videos in Year 1
75% of 364 = 273 videos in Year 2
65% of 364 = 236.6 videos in Year 3
© Wazir- The Strategy & Consulting Club, IIM Rohtak 3
GURU AAR
STEP 5
Then we calculate the sum of the photos and videos in each
person’s gallery
Light User = 2628 photos and 117 videos
Moderate User = 6132 photos and 351 videos
Heavy User = 13140 photos and 819 videos
STEP 6
Then we calculate the average of all the types of users to arrive at
a final estimate
Average Photos = (2628+6132+13140)/3 = 7300
Average Videos = (117+351+819)/3 = 429
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GURU AAR
User Type
Light Moderate Heavy
3 1 7 3 15 7
photo/day video/week photo/day video/week photo/day video/week
Yearly 1095 52 2555 156 5475 364
Retention 90%= 85%= 90%= 85%= 90%= 85%=
Year 1 985.5 44.2 2299.5 132.6 4927.5 309.5
Retention 80%= 75%= 80%= 75%= 80%= 75%=
Year 2 876 39 2044 117 4380 273
Retention 70%= 65%= 70%= 65%= 70%= 65%=
Year 3 766.5 33.8 1788.5 101.4 3832.5 236.6
2628 117 6132 351 13140 819
Average Photos = (2628+6132+13140)/3 = 7300 Average Videos = (117+351+819)/3 = 429
Estimated number of photos and videos in a phone gallery 7300 and 429
Calculation Result of Calculation Summation
© Wazir- The Strategy & Consulting Club, IIM Rohtak 4
THANK YOU
