Probability

SIMPLE PROBABILITY

1. A child drops a marble onto a board. Suppose that it is equally likely

for it to fall anywhere on the board. What is the probability, to the nearest
percent, that it lands on the red circle?

Solution:

We want to know the probability that the marble falls on the red area of
the board. So we need to know

area of red circle

P(red circle) =
area of full rectangle

This means we need to find the area of the circle,

Acircle = πr 2

Acircle = π(2.5)2

1
 Acircle ≈ 19.63 cm2

and the rectangle.

Arectangle = lw

Arectangle = (15)(6)

Arectangle = 90 cm2

So the probability that the marble lands on the red circle is

19.63 cm2
P(red circle) = ≈ 0.22
90 cm2

There’s a 22 % chance the marble lands on the blue circle.

2. A 12-sided number cube is rolled 60 times. Use the table to calculate

P(rolling an 11). Is this theoretical or experimental probability? Why?

Number rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Frequency 5 8 2 0 10 1 6 5 2 8 12 1

Solution:

This is an experimental probability because it’s based on the results of

actual trials. From the table, we can see that we rolled an 11 on the dice 12
times out of the 60 total rolls.

2
 Number rolled 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Frequency 5 8 2 0 10 1 6 5 2 8 12 1

So P(rolling an 11) is

12 1
P(rolling an 11) = = = 0.2 = 20 %
60 5

3. Monica’s class went on a trip to an orchard. At the end of the trip they
put all of the fruit they picked into one big basket. The chance of picking
any fruit from the basket is equally likely. Monica’s teacher picks out a fruit
for her to eat at random. What is the probability that it’s a plum (Monica’s
favorite)? Is this an experimental or theoretical probability? Why?

Number of fruit picked from each tree

40
60

50
30
Apples
Peaches
Pears
Plums

3
Solution:

This is a theoretical probability because it was calculated based on the

knowledge of the sample space. Monica didn’t perform repeated trials, so
there was no experiment.

In this case, the outcomes that meet our criteria are the 60 plums. All
possible outcomes can be found by found by adding all of the types of
fruit together.

60 + 40 + 30 + 50 = 180

Therefore, the probability of getting a plum is

outcomes that meet our criteria

P(event) =
all possible outcomes

60 1
P(plum) = =
180 3

Monica has a 1/3 ≈ 33 % chance of getting a plum.

4. Jamal surveyed the people at his local park about their favorite hobby
and recorded his results in a table. Based on the survey, what’s the
probability that someone who visits the park will choose Art as their
favorite hobby? Is this a theoretical or experimental probability? Why?

4
 Hobby Count

Reading 14

Sports 28

Art 15

Total 57

Solution:

Jamal is not likely to have surveyed everyone who visits the park or
everyone who will visit the park in the future. A survey is most often a
sample of a larger population, so the results are an experimental
probability.

In this case, the outcomes that meet our criteria are the 15 people who
selected Art as their favorite hobby. The total possible outcomes are the
number of people surveyed, 57. Therefore, the probability that someone in
Jamal’s survey chooses Art is

outcomes that meet our criteria

P(event) =
all possible outcomes

15 5
P(Art) = =
57 19

5. What is the probability that someone’s favorite exercise was weight

lifting only?

5
Solution:

In this case, the outcomes that meet our criteria are the 10 people whose
favorite exercise was weight lifting. The total of all possible outcomes are
the total number of people included in the Venn diagram:

2 + 5 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 10 = 34

So the probability that someone in the survey chose weight lifting as their
favorite exercise is

outcomes that meet our criteria

P(event) =
all possible outcomes

10 5
P(weight lifting) = =
34 17

6
 6. What is the sample space for rolling two six-sided dice (the list of all
possible outcomes)? What’s the probability that the sum of the two dice is
an odd number? Is this a theoretical or experimental probability? Why?

Solution:

We’re asked to list the sample space for rolling two six-sided dice. This
means we want to make a list of all the possible ways we could roll the
dice (the total outcomes).

A nice way to make sure we include every combination is to make a table.

We can represent one die by the top row and one die by the far-left
column and then write down all of the combinations to find the sample
space.

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

The rolls that give an odd sum are

7
 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

There are 36 total rolls in the sample space, and 18 that give an odd sum,
so the probability of rolling an odd sum is

outcomes that meet our criteria

P(event) =
all possible outcomes

18 1
P(odd sum) = = = 0.5 = 50 %
36 2

This is an example of theoretical probability because we used the

probability formula and did not perform an experiment.

8
THE ADDITION RULE, AND UNION VS. INTERSECTION

1. Given the probabilities P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.05, what is
P(A ∪ B)? Are A and B mutually exclusive events? Why or why not?

Solution:

Events A and B are not mutually exclusive events because sometimes they
can happen at the same time. The problem even tells us that
P(A ∩ B) = 0.05, which means there’s a 5 % chance that both events happen
at the same time. To find P(A ∪ B), we’ll use

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

and plug in P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.05.

P(A ∪ B) = 0.3 + 0.6 − 0.05

P(A ∪ B) = 0.85

2. Jack and Jill are taking multiple trips up a hill together. The Venn
diagram shows the number of times Jack and Jill fell down on their various
trips up the hill. What is the probability that Jack and Jill both fell down on
any particular trip, and what is the probability that only Jack fell down or
only Jill fell down on any particular trip?

9
Solution:

From the Venn diagram, we can add the numbers from each of the four
sections to see that Jack and Jill made

12 + 2 + 11 + 42 = 67

trips up the hill together. From the 2 in the center of the Venn diagram
where the circles overlap, we can tell that Jack and Jill both fell down on 2
of the trips up the hill. So the probability that Jack fell down and Jill fell
down is

2
P(Jack fell down ∩ Jill fell down) =
67

10
From the Venn diagram, we know that they took 12 trips where only Jack
fell down, and 11 trips where only Jill fell down. So the probability that
either only Jack fell down or only Jill fell down is

12 11
P(only Jack fell down ∪ only Jill fell down) = +
67 67

23
P(only Jack fell down ∪ only Jill fell down) =
67

3. When people buy a fish at a pet store the cashier can check off the
color of the fish as mostly red, mostly orange or mostly yellow. Currently
the probability of buying a red fish is 0.31, the probability of buying an
orange fish is 0.23, and the probability of buying a mostly yellow fish is 0.13
(there are colors of fish other than red, orange, and yellow).

Are the events buying a mostly red fish and buying a mostly orange fish
mutually exclusive? Find the probability that the purchase of a randomly
selected fish is either mostly red or mostly orange.

Solution:

The events of buying a mostly red fish and buying a mostly orange fish are
mutually exclusive because a single fish must be either mostly red or
mostly orange. It can’t be both, so there’s no overlap in the two events.

The probability that the purchase of a randomly selected fish is either

mostly red or mostly orange is

11
 P(mostly red ∪ mostly orange) = P(mostly red) + P(mostly orange)

P(mostly red ∪ mostly orange) = 0.31 + 0.23

P(mostly red ∪ mostly orange) = 0.54

4. The Venn diagram shows Mason’s toy car collection. Are the events
“plastic” and “wood” mutually exclusive? What is the probability that a
vehicle is made from plastic or wood? Are the events “wood” and
“wheels” mutually exclusive? What is the probability that a vehicle is made
from wood and has wheels?

Solution:

12
The events “plastic” and “wood” are mutually exclusive, because the
intersection between them is 0.

The probability that a vehicle is made from plastic or wood is represented

by P(plastic ∪ wood). There are 12 + 10 + 8 + 3 = 33 total cars in the Venn
diagram, and 8 + 3 = 11 of them are made with wood, while 10 + 12 = 22 of
them with plastic. Which means that the probability that a car is made with
wood or plastic is

11 + 22 33
P(plastic ∪ wood) = = = 1 = 100 %
33 33

The events “wood” and “wheels” are not mutually exclusive because they
have a non-zero number in their intersection.

13
The probability that a vehicle is made from wood and has wheels is
represented by P(wood ∩ wheels). Of all the vehicles in the Venn diagram,
3 are made from wood and have wheels, so

3 1
P(wood ∩ wheels) = = ≈ 9%
33 11

5. Every student at a certain high school needs to choose exactly one

fine arts elective. The frequency table shows the enrollment of electives
for all students. Are the events “junior” and “architecture” mutually
exclusive? What is the probability that a student is taking architecture and
a junior? What is the probability that a student is a junior or is taking
architecture?

14
 Extracurricular activities

Art Architecture Music Total

Freshmen 40 25 55 120

Sophomore 52 12 71 135

Grade Junior 56 45 54 155

Senior 30 60 20 110

Total 178 142 200 520

Solution:

The events “junior” and “architecture” are not mutually exclusive events
because it’s possible for a student to be both a junior and enrolled in
architecture.

The probability that a student is a junior and is taking architecture is given

by

45 9
P(junior ∩ architecture) = =
520 104

15
 Extracurricular activities

Art Architecture Music Total

Freshmen 40 25 55 120

Sophomore 52 12 71 135

Grade Junior 56 45 54 155

Senior 30 60 20 110

Total 178 142 200 520

The probability that a student is a junior or is taking architecture is given

by

P(junior ∪ architecture) = P(junior) + P(architecture)

−P(junior ∩ architecture)

155 142 45
P(junior ∪ architecture) = + −
520 520 520

252 63
P(junior ∪ architecture) = =
520 130

Extracurricular activities

Art Architecture Music Total

Freshmen 40 25 55 120

Sophomore 52 12 71 135

Grade Junior 56 45 54 155

Senior 30 60 20 110

Total 178 142 200 520

16
These are not mutually exclusive events, which is why we need to subtract
the overlap.

6. James tosses a coin and rolls a six-sided die. What is the sample
space for this situation? What is the probability the coin lands on heads
and the die lands on a 2 or a 3?

Solution:

We’re asked to list the sample space for flipping a coin and rolling a six-
sided die. This means we want to make a list of all the possible ways we
could flip the coin and roll the die (the total outcomes). A nice way to
make sure we include every combination is to make a table. We can
represent one die in the top row and the coin in the far-left column. Then
we can write down all of the combinations to find the sample space, in a
similar way that we would make a multiplication table.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Heads Heads, 1 Heads, 2 Heads, 3 Heads, 4 Heads, 5 Heads, 6

Tails Tails, 1 Tails, 2 Tails, 3 Tails, 4 Tails, 5 Tails, 6

Next, we’re interested in the probability that the coin lands on heads and
the die lands on a 2 or a 3. This means we need to find P(heads ∩ 2 or 3).
There are only two values from the sample space that give heads and a 2
or a 3.

17
 1 2 3 4 5 6

Heads Heads, 1 Heads, 2 Heads, 3 Heads, 4 Heads, 5 Heads, 6

Tails Tails, 1 Tails, 2 Tails, 3 Tails, 4 Tails, 5 Tails, 6

And there are 12 possible outcomes. So the probability is

2 1
P(heads ∩ 2 or 3) = =
12 6

18
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY

1. What is the probability of getting four heads in a row when we flip a

fair coin four times?

Solution:

Each coin flip is an independent event. The probability of getting a head

on each flip is 1/2 (there’s one way to get a head out of two possible ways,
heads or tails). Therefore,

(2)(2)(2)(2) (2)
4
1 1 1 1 1 1
P(HHHH ) = = =
16

2. An old dog finds and eats 60 % of food that’s dropped on the floor. A
toddler wanders through the house and drops 10 pieces of cereal. What’s
the probability the dog finds and eats all 10 pieces?

Solution:

The dog’s success rate of finding dropped food is 60%. We can calculate
the probability the dog finds all the pieces by saying that the dog finding
the next piece of food is independent from finding the piece before. Then,

19
 P(FFFFFFFFFF ) = (0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)

P(FFFFFFFFFF ) = (0.6)10

P(FFFFFFFFFF ) ≈ 0.006

There’s a 0.6 % chance the dog will find and eat all of the dropped cereal.

3. Amelia is choosing some pretty stones from the gift shop at the
museum. The gift shop has a grab bag that contains 5 amethyst stones, 6
fluorite stones, 2 pink opals, and 7 yellow calcite stones. Amelia looks into
the bag and takes out two stones, one at a time, at random. What is the
probability that she gets an amethyst first and then a pink opal?

Solution:

There are a total of 5 + 6 + 2 + 7 = 20 stones. If Amelia pulls one stone from

the grab bag, the probability of taking out an amethyst is

5 1
P(amethyst) = =
20 4

Once an amethyst is pulled out, there are only 19 stones left in the bag, 2
of which are pink opals, so the chance of pulling a pink opal is

2
P(pink opal | amethyst) =
19

20
We can therefore say that the probability of pulling both stones in that
specific order (these are dependent events) is

1 2 2 1
P(amethyst then pink opal) = ⋅ = =
4 19 76 38

4. Emily counted the shape and type of blocks that her little sister owns
and organized the information into a frequency table.

Block Shape
Rectangular
Cube Total
Prism

Red 5 9 14
Block
Blue 4 10 14
Color
Total 9 19 28

Are events A and B dependent or independent events? Use the formula to

explain the answer.

Event A is that the block is a cube.

Event B is that block is red.

Let P(A) be the probability that a block drawn at random is a cube.

Let P(B) be the probability that a block drawn at random is red.

Solution:

21
The events are independent if we can show that P(A and B) = P(A)P(B). P(A)
is the probability that a block drawn at random is a cube. P(A) = 9/28.

Block Shape
Rectangular
Cube Total
Prism

Red 5 9 14
Block
Blue 4 10 14
Color
Total 9 19 28

P(B) is the probability that a block drawn at random is red.

P(B) = 14/28 = 1/2.

Block Shape
Rectangular
Cube Total
Prism

Red 5 9 14
Block
Blue 4 10 14
Color
Total 9 19 28

P(A and B) is the probability that the chosen block is both red and a cube.
P(A and B) = 5/28.

22
 Block Shape
Rectangular
Cube Total
Prism

Red 5 9 14
Block
Blue 4 10 14
Color
Total 9 19 28

Now we can check for independence by showing P(A and B) = P(A)P(B).

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

5 9 1
= ⋅
28 28 2

5 9
=
28 56

10 9
=
56 56

Because the values are unequal, P(A) and P(B) are dependent events.

5. A bag has 4 cinnamon candies, 6 peppermint candies, and 12 cherry

candies. Sasha draws 3 candies at random from the bag one at a time
without replacement. Does the situation describe dependent or
independent events? What is the probability of drawing a cinnamon first,
then a cherry, and then a peppermint?

23
Solution:

These events are dependent events, because removing a candy from the
bag changes what’s inside and effects the probability of subsequent pulls.

We want to find the probability of drawing a cinnamon first, then a cherry,

and then a peppermint last. There are 4 + 6 + 12 = 22 total candies in the
bag. Let’s look at the probability of getting a cinnamon first. Since there
are 4 cinnamon candies, the probability of getting a cinnamon is

4 2
P(cinnamon) = =
22 11

Now there are 21 total candies remaining, 12 of which are cherry, so the
probability of getting cherry next is

12 4
P(cherry) = =
21 7

Now there are 20 total candies remaining, 6 of which are peppermint, so

the probability of getting peppermint next is

6 3
P(peppermint) = =
20 10

Therefore, the probability of drawing these three flavors in this particular

order is

2 4 3
P(Ci, Ch, Pe) = ⋅ ⋅
11 7 10

24
P(Ci, Ch, Pe) =
770

24
 12
P(Ci, Ch, Pe) =
385

6. Nyla has 12 stuffed animals, 7 of which are elephants (4 of the

elephants play music and light up) and 5 of which are bears (2 of the bears
play music and light up). Her mother randomly selects an animal to bring
with them on vacation. Let A be the event that she selects an elephant and
B be the event that she selects an animal that plays music and lights up.

Find P(A), P(B), P(A | B), and P(B | A). State if events A and B are dependent
or independent events, then find P(A and B).

Solution:

There are 7 + 5 = 12 total stuffed animals. P(A) is the probability of selecting

an elephant, and there are 7 elephants.

7
P(A) =
12

P(B) is the probability of selecting an animal that plays music and lights up.
There are 4 + 2 = 6 animals that play music and light up.

6 1
P(B) = =
12 2

P(A | B) is the probability of selecting an elephant, given that the animal

plays music and lights up. There are 4 elephants that play music and light
up out of 4 + 2 = 6 total animals that play music and light up.

25
 4 2
P(A | B) = =
6 3

P(B | A) is the probability of picking a toy that plays music and lights up
given that the toy is an elephant. There are 4 elephants that play music
and light up out of 7 total elephants.

4
P(B | A) =
7

Because P(A) ≠ P(A | B) and P(B) ≠ P(B | A), A and B are dependent events.
P(A and B) is the probability of choosing an elephant that plays music and
lights up. We know the events are dependent events, so

P(A and B) = P(A) ⋅ P(B | A)

7 4
P(A and B) = ⋅
12 7

28 4
P(A and B) = =
84 12

1
P(A and B) =
3

26
BAYES’ THEOREM

1. We have two coins. One is fair and the other one is weighted to land
on tails 4/5 of the time. Without knowing which coin we’re choosing, we
pick one at random, toss the coin and get tails. What is the probability we
flipped the biased coin? Complete the tree diagram to answer the
question.

Solution:

We’re looking for the probability that the coin is biased given that we
already flipped a tails, so we’re looking for P(biased | tails).

27
The next step for the tree diagram is to make sure the branches are
balanced. We use equivalent fractions to do this. For the biased side we
know that we get tails 4 out of 5 times. This is the same as 8 out of 10
times. For the unbiased coin, we get tails 1 out of 2 times, which is the
same as 5 out of 10 times.

We’re only interested in tails, so now we need to trim the tree.

28
Now we’re looking for the probability that we tossed the biased coin. 8 of
the tails came from the biased coin and 5 did not.

8 8
P(biased) = =
8 + 5 13

The probability we tossed the biased coin, knowing that it landed on tails,
is 8/13.

2. We have two dice. One is fair and the other is biased. The biased die is
weighted to land on 6 every 1 out of 36 rolls. There’s an equal probability
for all of the other five faces on the biased die. Without knowing which
one we’re choosing, we pick one of the dice, roll it, and get a 6.

Calculate the following and use them to answer the question: What is the
probability that we rolled the fair die?

P(6 | fair)

P(fair)

29
 P(6)

Solution:

P(6 | fair) is the probability of rolling a 6, given that the die was fair. Since all
outcomes are equally likely on the fair die, we have a 1 in 6 chance of
rolling a 6.

1
P(6 | fair) =
6

P(fair) is the probability of choosing the fair die. Each of the 2 dice has an
equally likely chance of being chosen, so the probability of choosing the
fair die is 1 in 2.

1
P(fair) =
2

P(6) is the probability of rolling a 6. This is the probability of choosing the

biased die and rolling a 6 or the probability of choosing the fair die and
rolling a 6. Let’s find the probability that the die is fair and we roll a 6.

1 1 1
P(fair and 6) = ⋅ =
2 6 12

Now let’s find the probability the die is biased and we roll a 6.

1 1 1
P(biased and 6) = ⋅ =
2 36 72

Therefore, the probability of rolling a 6 is

30
 1 1
P(6) = +
12 72

6 1
P(6) = +
72 72

7
P(6) =
72

Now we want to answer the question: “What is the probability that we

rolled the fair die?” We’re looking for P(fair | 6), and we have everything we
need to use Bayes’ Theorem.

P(B | A) ⋅ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

P(6 | fair) ⋅ P(fair)

P(fair | 6) =
P(6)

1 1
6
⋅ 2
P(fair | 6) = 7
72

1
12 1 72 72 6
P(fair | 6) = = ⋅ = =
7 12 7 84 7
72

The probability we rolled the fair die given that we rolled a 6 is 6/7.

3. Charlie knows that, at his school,

P(senior) = 0.40

31
 P(playing soccer) = 0.15

P(soccer and senior) = 0.05

Solve for the probability P(senior | soccer), then state whether or not
Bayes’ Theorem can be used to solve the problem.

Solution:

Let’s look to see if we can use Bayes’ Theorem to find the probability. First
let’s take Bayes’ Theorem and write it in terms of our problem. We want to
solve for the probability P(senior | soccer), so

P(B | A) ⋅ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

P(soccer | senior) ⋅ P(senior)

P(senior | soccer) =
P(soccer)

Remember that the multiplication rule says that P(B and A) = P(B | A) ⋅ P(A).
So we can also say that P(soccer and senior) = P(soccer | senior) ⋅ P(senior).
Then we can use Bayes’ Theorem.

P(soccer and senior)

P(senior | soccer) =
P(soccer)

Now we can use the information we’ve been given to solve the problem.

P(soccer and senior) = 0.05

P(playing soccer) = 0.15

32
 0.05 1
P(senior | soccer) = = ≈ 33 %
0.15 3

We could have also used a Venn diagram, instead of Bayes’ Theorem, to

solve this problem.

4. We have two coins. One is fair and the other is weighted to land on
tails 3/4 of the time. Without knowing which coin we’re choosing, we pick
one at random, toss the coin, and get tails. What’s the probability we
flipped the biased coin?

Solution:

We’re looking for the probability that the coin is biased, given that we
already flipped a tails, so we’re looking for P(biased | tails). We can solve
this problem using Bayes’ Theorem, or by creating a tree diagram. Let’s
use Bayes’ Theorem.

P(B | A) ⋅ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

That means that to use Bayes’ Theorem, we have P(A) = P(biased) and
P(B) = P(tails). Then we need to find these values to plug into the formula:

P(tails | biased)

P(biased)

P(tails)

33
We know from the problem that P(tails | biased) = 3/4. There are two coins,
and it’s equally likely that we choose either one, so P(biased) = 1/2. The
probability of flipping a tails is the probability of flipping the biased coin
and landing on tails or the probability of flipping the unbiased coin and
landing on tails. Let’s find the probability the coin is biased and it lands on
tails.

1 3 3
P(biased and tails) = ⋅ =
2 4 8

Now let’s find the probability the coin is fair and lands on tails.

1 1 1
P(fair and tails) = ⋅ =
2 2 4

So the probability of flipping a tails is

3 1
P(tails) = +
8 4

3 2
P(tails) = +
8 8

5
P(tails) =
8

Putting these values into Bayes’ Theorem, we get

P(B | A) ⋅ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

3 1 3
4
⋅ 2 8 3 8 3
P(A | B) = = = ⋅ =
5 5 8 5 5
8 8

34
The probability that we flipped the biased coin is 3/5.

5. A company is giving a drug test to all of its employees. The test is 90 %

accurate, given that a person is using drugs, and 85 % accurate, given that
the person is not using drugs. It’s also known that 10 % of the general
population of employees uses drugs. What is the probability that an
employee was actually using drugs, given that they tested positive?

Let P represent a positive test for an individual.

Let N represent a negative test for an individual.

Let D represent the event that an employee is a drug user.

Solution:

We’re asked to determine the probability that an employee was using

drugs, given that they tested positive, or P(D | P). Let’s use Bayes’
Theorem.

P(B | A) ⋅ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

P(P | D) ⋅ P(D)
P(D | P) =
P(P)

P(P | D) is the probability that an employee tests positive, given that they
are a drug user. From the problem, we know that P(P | D) = 90 % . P(D) is the
probability that an employee is a drug user, and from the problem, we

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know that P(D) = 10 % . P(P) is the probability of testing positive, regardless
of whether the result was accurate or inaccurate.

Let’s find the probability the an employee tests positive, and the result is
accurate, because they’re a drug user. We know 10 % of employees are
drug users, and we know that 90 % of drug users will test positive.

(0.10)(0.90) = 0.09

Now let’s calculate the probability that an employee tested positive, but
wasn’t a drug user. The problem tells us that the test is 85 % accurate for
non drug users, which means that 15 % of those who aren’t using drugs will
still test positive. Since 10 % of the employees are drug users, 90 % are not.
So the probability of a false positive from a non drug user is

(0.90)(0.15) = 0.135

Now we can calculate P(D | P).

(0.90)(0.10)
P(D | P) =
0.09 + 0.135

0.09
P(D | P) =
0.225

P(D | P) = 40 %

This means that, for an employee who tests positive, there’s a 40 % chance
that employee is actually using drugs.

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 6. Two factories A and B produce heaters for car seats. A customer
received a defective car seat heater and the manager at factory B would
like to know if it came from her factory. Use the table below to determine
the probability that the heater came from factory B.

Probability of defective
Factory % of production
heaters

A 0.55 0.020 P(D|A)

B 0.45 0.014 P(D|B)

Solution:

The manager wants to know the probability the heater came from her
factory, given it was defective. So she’s looking for P(B | D). We can use
Bayes’ Theorem to find the probability. Substituting in with the given
events, we get

P(B | A) ⋅ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

P(D | B) ⋅ P(B)
P(B | D) =
P(D)

Let’s find P(D | B), P(B), and P(D). P(D | B) is the probability the heater is
defective, given it came from factory B. We have this probability in the
table as P(D | B) = 0.014. P(B) is the probability the heater came from factory
B. We also have this in the table as P(B) = 0.45. Next, we need P(D), which is
the probability the heater is defective. This is made of the probability

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the heater comes from factory A and is defective and the probability it
came from factory B and is defective. So we need to find
P(A ∩ D) + P(B ∩ D).

First let’s find the probability that the heater comes from factory A and is
defective.

Probability of defective
Factory % of production
heaters

A 0.55 0.020 P(D|A)

P(A ∩ D) = P(D | A) ⋅ P(A)

P(A ∩ D) = (0.55)(0.020)

P(A ∩ D) = 0.011

Next let’s find the probability the heater comes from factory B and is
defective.

Probability of defective
Factory % of production
heaters

B 0.45 0.014 P(D|B)

P(B ∩ D) = P(D | B) ⋅ P(B)

P(B ∩ D) = (0.45)(0.014)

P(B ∩ D) = 0.0063

Now we can find P(D).

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 P(D) = P(A ∩ D) + P(B ∩ D)

P(D) = 0.011 + 0.0063

P(D) = 0.0173

Putting these values into Bayes’ Theorem, we get

P(D | B) ⋅ P(B)
P(B | D) =
P(D)

(0.014) ⋅ (0.45)
P(B | D) =
0.0173

0.0063
P(B | D) =
0.0173

P(B | D) ≈ 36 %

There is about a 36 % chance the defective heater came from factory B.

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