Eficient market hypothesis
Eficient market hypothesis
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A weak form of stock market efficiency is consistent with the random walk theory.
This theory states that share prices move up and down randomly over time, in response to the
arrival of favourable or unfavourable information on the market. Random walk theory is
opposed to the view that future share price movements can be predicted from patterns of
share price movements in the past, since patterns repeat themselves, and historical trends can
be used to predict future trends. Some stock market analysts believe that they can predict
future movements in share prices from recognisable patterns of share price movement. These
analysts are sometimes called chartists, because recognisable patterns of share price
movements can be illustrated by graphs or charts of share prices over a period of time.
Chartism does not have a rational justification.
Semi-strong form efficiency
When a market has semi-strong form efficiency, current share prices reflect all
publicly-available information about the company and its prospects, in addition to historical
information. For example, share prices might respond to a new announcement by a company
about its trading prospects for the remainder of the year. Similarly, the share price might also
respond to an announcement that the company is seeking to make a new acquisition, or a
major new investment. If a market displays semi-strong form efficiency, share prices should
move when new information becomes available to the public, but not before. For example, if
a company is planning a major acquisition, the share price should not be affected by
unconfirmed rumours in the market. However, the share price will react to the official
announcement of a takeover bid by a company.
It also means that individuals who have access to information that has not yet been
made public (‘inside information’) will be able to buy or sell the shares in advance of the
information becoming public, and make a large personal profit. This is because the inside
information will indicate whether the share price is likely to go up or down, and the
individual can buy or sell accordingly. Using inside information to make a personal profit
from trading in shares is called insider dealing, which is illegal in countries with well-
established stock markets.
Strong form efficiency
When a market has strong form efficiency, current share prices reflect all relevant
information about the company as soon as it comes into existence, even if it has not been
made publicly-available. In other words, the share price reflects all inside information as well
as publicly-available information. The market is so efficient that all information is
immediately transmitted throughout the market instantly, and all investors have access to this
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same information. If the stock market has strong form efficiency, it is impossible for
individuals to profit from insider trading, because there is no inside knowledge that the
market has not already found out about.
In practice, research suggests that most markets have weak form efficiency, but some
well-developed markets such as the New York Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange
are semi-strong form efficient.
Illustration 1:
A company decides to undertake a major capital investment. The investment will be a
five-year project, and over the course of the five years, the company’s directors believe that
the net profits will add ₦125 million to the value of the company’s shares. The company
made the decision to invest on 1st October Year 1, and the first year of profits from the
investment will be Year 2. It announces the investment and the expected benefits to the stock
market on 1st December. It is assumed that the stock market investors believe the company
estimate that the project will add ₦125 million to share values.
Solution:
Strong form efficiency
If the stock market has strong form efficiency, the company’s share price should go
up on 1st October, as soon as the decision to invest is made. The total increase in share value
should be ₦125 million.
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Implications of strong capital market efficiency
There are several theoretical implications of market efficiency. If a capital market has strong
efficiency:
a. Share prices will be fair at all times and reflect all information about a company. This
means that there is no ‘good time’ or ‘bad time’ to try issuing new shares or bonds.
b. Companies will gain no benefit from trying to manipulate their financial results and
present their performance and financial position in a favourable light. In a market with
strong-form efficiency, investors will see through the pretence and will understand the
true financial position of the company.
c. For investors there will never be any ‘bargains’ in the stock market, where share
prices are under-valued. Similarly there will be no over-priced shares that clever
investors will sell before a share price fall.
d. If the capital market has strong form efficiency, if a company invests in any new
capital project with a positive net present value, the share price should respond by
going up to reflect the increase in the value of the company represented by the project
NPV.
Conclusion
In finance literature, capital market efficiency is a market where security prices
quickly and fully reflected all available information. In an efficient market, the same rate of
return for a given level of risk should be realized by all investors (Olowe, 2008). Capital
market efficiency was categorized into three: weak form efficiency, semi-strong strong
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efficiency and strong form efficiency. Weak form efficiency is concerned with the adjustment
of security prices to historical price or return information. If the market is weak form
efficient, no investor can earn any excess or abnormal return based on historical price or
return information. Semi-strong form efficiency is concerned with whether security prices
fully reflect all publicly available information. Finally, strong form efficiency is concerned
with whether security prices fully reflect all information whether available to the public or
not.
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ASSIGNMENT 2
FINANCIAL AND PROFIT ANALYSIS: Balance Sheet, Fund Flow Statement, Cash Flow
Statement and Ratio Analysis.
Introduction
The basis for financial planning, analysis and decision making is the financial
information. Financial information is needed to predict, compare and evaluate the firm’s
earning ability. It is also required to aid in economic decision making; investment and
financing decision making. The financial information of an enterprise is contained in the
financial statement or accounting reports. Three basic financial statements of great
significance to owners, management and investors are balance sheet, profit and loss account
and cash flow statement (Pandey, 2008).
The financial statements are the final output of the accounting process of any
organization. The typical set of financial statements prepared by publicly held companies
contains useful information as regards the success of operation of the firm, the financial
position of the firm, the policies and strategies of management, and insight into its future
performance. The financial statements will assist a financial analyst in determining whether
(Olowe, 2008):
a. Returns generated by an investment is adequate to be attractive
b. Selling off an existing investment
c. Interest and principal repayments in loans are paid regularly
d. There is opportunity for employment in the firm
e. The company is coping with competition within its industry
f. The firm offers a good prospect.
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enterprise, the balance-sheet reflecting the assets, liabilities and capital as on a certain data
and the income statement showing the results of operations during a certain period.
A typical financial statement therefore comprises:
a. Balance sheet
b. profit and loss account or income statement
c. statement of cash flow
Balance Sheet
Balance sheet is the most significant financial statement. It indicates the financial
condition or the state of affairs of a business at a particular moment of time. More
specifically, balance sheet contains information about resources and obligations of a business
entity and about its owner’s interests in the business at a particular point in time. Thus the
balance sheet of a firm prepared on 31 st December reveals the firms’ financial position on this
specific date. In the accounting language, balance sheet communicates information about
assets, liabilities and owner’s equity for a business firm as on a specific date. It provides a
snapshot of the financial position of the firm at the close of the firm’s accounting period
(Pandey, 2008).
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Difference between Funds Flow and Cash Flow Statement
Funds Flow Statement Cash Flow Statement
1. Funds flow statement is the report on the 1. Cash flow statement is the report showing
movement of funds or working capital sources and uses of cash.
2. Funds flow statement explains how 2. Cash flow statement explains the inflow
working capital is raised and used during the and out flow of cash during the particular
particular period period.
3. The main objective of fund flow statement 3. The main objective of the cash flow
is to show the how the resources have been statement is to show the causes of changes in
balanced mobilized and used. cash between two balance sheet dates.
4. Funds flow statement indicates the results 4. Cash flow statement indicates the factors
of current financial management. contributing to the reduction of cash balance
in spite of increase in profit and vice-versa.
5. In a funds flow statement increase or 5. In a cash flow statement only cash receipt
decrease in working capital is recorded. and payments are recorded.
6. In funds flow statement there is no 6. Cash flow statement starts with opening
opening and closing balances. cash balance and ends with closing cash
balance.
Solution:
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Comparative Balance Sheet Analysis as at 31st March
Increased/ Increased/
Decreased Decreased
(Amount) (Percentage)
2014 2015
# # # #
Assets
Current Assets
Cash and Balance with CBN 2,706,808 2,237,601 +469,207 +17.33
Balance with Banks & Money at call 1,136,781 1,607,975 –471,194 –41.45
Total Current Assets 3,843,589 3,845,576 1,987 0.052
Fixed Assets
Investments 21,421,060 23,537,098 -2,116,038 - 9.88
Advances 19,599,764 21,139,869 -1,540,105 -7.86
Fixed Assets 493,996 536,442 -42,446 -8.59
Other Assets 1,858,064 1,835,883 +22,181 +1.19
Total Fixed Assets 43,372,884 47,049,292 +3,676,408 8.48
Total Assets 47,216,473 50,894,868 3,678,395 7.79
Current Liabilities
Borrowings 727,671 284,690 +442,981 60.88
Other Liability and
Provisions 1,674,165 1,799,197 –125,032 7.47
Total Current Liability 2,401,836 2,083,887 317,949 13.24
Fixed Liability Capital 2,845 2,845 — —
Reserves surplus 3,966,009 4,765,406 +799,397 20.16
Deposit 40,845,783 44,042,730 +3,196,947 7.83
Total Fixed Liability 44,814,637 48,810,981 +3,996,344 8.92
Total Liability 47,216,473 50,894,868 3,678,395 7.79
Illustration 3
From the following balance sheet of XYZ Company Ltd. you are required to prepare a
schedule of changes in working capital and statement of flow of funds.
Balance Sheet of XYZ Company Ltd., as on 31st March
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Liabilities 2015 2016 Assets 2015 2016
Share Capital 100,000 110,000 Land and Building 60,000 60,000
Profit and Loss a/c 20,000 23,000 Plant and Machinery 35,000 45,000
Loans — 10,000 Stock 20,000 25,000
Creditors 15,000 18,000 Debtors 18,000 28,000
Bills payable 5,000 4,000 Bills receivable 2,000 1,000
Cash 5,000 6,000
140,000 165,000 140,000 165,000
Solution:
Schedule of Changes in Working Capital
Particulars 2015 2015 Increase Decrease
# # # #
Current Assets
Stock 20,000 25,000 5,000 —
Debtors 18,000 28,000 10,000 —
Bills Receivable 2,000 1,000 — 1,000
Cash 5,000 6,000 1,000
A 45,000 60,000
Less Current Liabilities
Creditors 15,000 18,000 3,000
Bills Payable 5,000 4,000 1,000
B 20,000 22,000 17,000 4,000
A-B 25,000 38,000 — 13,000
Increase in W.C. 38,000 38,000 17,000 17,000
Illustration 4
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From the above illustration3 prepare a Cash Flow Statement.
Solution
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Activities
Balance c/d 5,000
Profit from operating activities 3,000
Dec. in bill receivables 1,000
Increase in creditors 3,000
Increase in current assets (5,000)
Stock (10,000)
Dec. in payables (1,000)
(4,000)
Investing Activities
Purchase of Plants (10,000)
Financing Activities
Issued share capital 10,000
Loan 10,000
Net cash flow 6,000
Ratio Analysis
Ratio analysis is a commonly used tool of financial statement analysis. Ratio is a
mathematical relationship between one number to another number. Ratio is used as an index
for evaluating the financial performance of the business concern. An accounting ratio shows
the mathematical relationship between two figures, which have meaningful relation with each
other. Ratio can be classified into various types. Classification from the point of view of
financial management is as follows:
● Liquidity Ratio
● Activity Ratio
● Solvency Ratio
● Profitability Ratio
Liquidity Ratio
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It is also called as short-term ratio. This ratio helps to understand the liquidity in a
business which is the potential ability to meet current obligations. This ratio expresses the
relationship between current assets and current assets of the business concern during a
particular period. The following are the major liquidity ratio:
Current Asset
1. Current Ratio= 2 :1
Current Liabilities
Current Asset−Stock
2. Quick Ratio= 1:1
Current Liabilities
Activity Ratio
It is also called as turnover ratio. This ratio measures the efficiency of the current
assets and liabilities in the business concern during a particular period. This ratio is helpful to
understand the performance of the business concern. Some of the activity ratios are given
below:
Cost of Sales
1. Stock Turnover Ratio=
Average Inventory
Credit Sales
2. Debtor Turnover Ratio=
Average Debtors
Credit Purchases
3. Creditor Turnover Ratio=
Average Creditors
Sales
4. Working Capital Turnover Ratio=
Net Working Capital
Solvency Ratio
It is also called as leverage ratio, which measures the long-term obligation of the
business concern. This ratio helps to understand, how the long-term funds are used in the
business concern. Some of the solvency ratios are given below:
Debt
1. Debt−Equity Ratio=
Equity
Shareholders Fund
2. Proprietory Ratio=
Total Assets
EBIT
3. . Interest Coverage Ratio=
¿ Interest Charges
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Profitability Ratio
Profitability ratio helps to measure the profitability position of the business concern.
Some of the major profitability ratios are given below.
Gross Profit
1. Gross Profit Ratio= X 100
Sales
Net Profit
2. Net Profit Ratio= X 100
Sales
Operating Profit
3. Operating Profit Ratio= X 100
Sales
Illustration 5
Calculate appropriate ratios from the following balance sheet of KWASU Industries Ltd., as
31st March 2016.
Liabilities # Assets #
Equity Share Capital 10,000 Fixed assets (less dep. of #10,000) 26,000
7% Preference Share Capital 2,000
Reserves and Surplus 8,000 Current Assets:
6% Mortgage Debentures 14,000 Cash 1,000
Current Liabilities: Investments (10%) 3,000
Creditors 1,200 Sundry debtors 4,000
Bills payable 2,000 Stock 6,000
Outstanding expenses 200
Tax Provision 2,600
40,000 40,000
Other information: #
a. Net sales 60,000
b. Cost of goods sold 51,600
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c. Net income before tax 4,000
d. Net income after tax 2,000
Solution
Short-term solvency ratios
Current Asset 14,000
1. Current Ratio= = =2.33 :1
Current Liabilities 6,000
Current Asset−Stock 8,000
2. Quick Ratio= = =1.33 :1
Current Liabilities 6,000
Long-term solvency ratios
Activity Ratio
Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit 8,400
1. Gross Profit Ratio= X 100= x 100=14 %
Sales 60,000
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Profit After Tax 2,000
3. Returnon Investment = X 100= x 100=10 %
'
Shareholder s Fund 20,000
Introduction
Working capital management is also one of the important parts of the financial
management. It is concerned with short-term finance of the business concern which is a
closely related trade between profitability and liquidity. Efficient working capital
management leads to improve the operating performance of the business concern and it helps
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to meet the short term liquidity. Hence, study of working capital management is not only an
important part of financial management but also is overall management of the business
concern. Working capital is described as the capital which is not fixed but the more common
uses of the working capital is to consider it as the difference between the book value of
current assets and current liabilities.
Current Liability
Bills Payable
Sundry Creditors
Outstanding Expenses
Short-term Loans and Advances
Dividend Payable
Bank Overdraft
Provision for Taxation
Types of Working Capital
Working Capital may be classified into three important types on the basis of time.
a. Permanent Working Capital: It is also known as Fixed Working Capital. It is the
capital; the business concern must maintain certain amount of capital at minimum
level at all times. The level of Permanent Capital depends upon the nature of the
business. Permanent or Fixed Working Capital will not change irrespective of time or
volume of sales.
b. Temporary Working Capital: It is also known as variable working capital. It is the
amount of capital which is required to meet the Seasonal demands and some special
purposes. It can be further classified into Seasonal Working Capital and Special
Working Capital. The capital required to meet the seasonal needs of the business
concern is called as Seasonal Working Capital. The capital required to meet the
special exigencies such as launching of extensive marketing campaigns for
conducting research, etc.
c. Semi Variable Working Capital: Certain amount of Working Capital is in the field
level up to a certain stage and after that it will increase depending upon the change of
sales or time.
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Working Capital is an essential part of the business concern. Every business concern
must maintain certain amount of Working Capital for their day-to-day requirements and meet
the short-term obligations. Working Capital is needed for the following purposes.
a. Purchase of raw materials and spares: The basic part of manufacturing process is
raw materials. It should purchase frequently according to the needs of the business
concern. Hence, every business concern maintains certain amount as Working
Capital to purchase raw materials, components, spares, etc.
b. Payment of wages and salary: The next part of Working Capital is payment of
wages and salaries to labour and employees. Periodical payment facilities make
employees perfect in their work. So a business concern maintains adequate the
amount of working capital to make the payment of wages and salaries.
c. Day-to-day expenses: A business concern has to meet various expenditures
regarding the operations at daily basis like fuel, power, office expenses, etc.
d. Provide credit obligations: A business concern responsible to provide credit
facilities to the customer and meet the short-term obligation. So the concern must
provide adequate Working Capital.
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Factors Determining Working Capital Requirements
Working Capital requirements depends upon various factors. There are no set of rules
or formula to determine the Working Capital needs of the business concern. The following
are the major factors which are determining the Working Capital requirements.
a. Nature of business: Working Capital of the business concerns largely depend upon
the nature of the business. If the business concerns follow rigid credit policy and sell
goods only for cash, they can maintain lesser amount of Working Capital. A transport
company maintains lesser amount of Working Capital while a construction company
maintains larger amount of Working Capital.
b. Production cycle: Amount of Working Capital depends upon the length of the
production cycle. If the production cycle length is small, they need to maintain lesser
amount of Working Capital. If it is not, they have to maintain large amount of
Working Capital.
c. Business cycle: Business fluctuations lead to cyclical and seasonal changes in the
business condition and it will affect the requirements of the Working Capital. In the
booming conditions, the Working Capital requirement is larger and in the depression
condition, requirement of Working Capital will reduce. Better business results lead to
increase the Working Capital requirements.
d. Production policy: It is also one of the factors which affect the Working Capital
requirement of the business concern. If the company maintains the continues
production policy, there is a need of regular Working Capital. If the production policy
of the company depends upon the situation or conditions, Working Capital
requirement will depend upon the conditions laid down by the company
e. Credit policy: Credit policy of sales and purchase also affect the Working Capital
requirements of the business concern. If the company maintains liberal credit policy
to collect the payments from its customers, they have to maintain more Working
Capital. If the company pays the dues on the last date it will create the cash
maintenance in hand and bank.
f. Growth and expansion: During the growth and expansion of the business concern,
Working Capital requirements are higher, because it needs some additional Working
Capital and incurs some extra expenses at the initial stages.
g. Availability of raw materials: Major parts of the Working Capital requirements are
largely depend on the availability of raw materials. Raw materials are the basic
components of the production process. If the raw material is not readily available, it
22
leads to production stoppage. So, the concern must maintain adequate raw material;
for that purpose, they have to spend some amount of Working Capital.
h. Earning capacity: If the business concern consists of high level of earning capacity,
they can generate more Working Capital, with the help of cash from operation.
Earning capacity is also one of the factors which determine the Working Capital
requirements of the business concern.
Each component of the operating cycle can be calculated by the following formula:
Illustration 6
From the following information extracted from the books of a manufacturing
company, compute the operating cycle in days and the amount of working capital required:
Period Covered 365 days
Average period of credit allowed by suppliers 16 days
Average Total of Debtors Outstanding 480
Raw Material Consumption 4,400
Total Production Cost 10,000
Total Cost of Sales 10,500
Sales for the year 16,000
Value of Average Stock maintained:
Raw Material 320
Work-in-progress 350
Finished Goods 260
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Solution
Computation of Operating Cycle
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REFERENCES
Copeland, T.E., and Weston J.F. (1983): Financial Theory and Corporate Policy, 2nd edition,
Carlifonia: Addison-wesley.
Hishleifer, J. (1990): Investment, Interest and Capital, Engllewood Cliffs
ICAN (2014): Strategic Financial Management. Emile Woolf International, Ocean House,
United Kingdom
Olowe, R.A. (2008): Financial Management: Concept Financial System and Business
Finance, Ibadan University Press
Pandey, I.M. (2008): Financial Management. New Delhi: Vikas Publishing
House Company.
Paramasivan, C. and Subramanian T. (2012): Financial Management. New Age
International Publisher
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