Smbl Merged
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Siddarth MB (1IC21CD007)
2024-2025
IMPACT COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCES
Sahakarnagar, Banglore-560092
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the Technical Seminar entitled " Anomaly Detection in Time Series: A
Data Science Approach ” carried out by Siddarth MB (1IC21CD007) is a bonafide
student of Impact College of Engineering and Applied Sciences Bangalore has been
submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements of VIII semester Bachelor of Engineering
degree in Computer Science & Engineering (Data Science) as prescribed by
VISVESVARAYA TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY during the academic year of 2024-
2025.
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2. 2.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The satisfaction and euphoria that accompany the successful completion of any task would
be incomplete without the mention of the people who made it possible and whose constant
encouragement and guidance crowned my efforts with success.
I express my deep and sincere thanks to our Management and Principal, Dr. Jalumedi
Babu for their continuous support.
Siddharth MB (1IC21CD007)
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ABSTRACT
Anomaly detection in time series data plays a pivotal role in identifying unusual patterns or
behaviors that deviate from expected norms. It has diverse applications, including fraud
detection, cyber security, predictive maintenance, and healthcare monitoring. This paper
explores various techniques used for anomaly detection, focusing on statistical methods,
machine learning approaches, and deep learning models. Statistical methods like Z-score,
IQR, and Moving Average provide simple yet effective ways to detect outliers, while
machine learning techniques such as Isolation Forest and One-Class SVM offer more
sophisticated solutions for handling high-dimensional data. Deep learning models, including
LSTM Auto encoders and Diffusion Networks (U-Net), provide state-of-the-art performance,
particularly in detecting complex and subtle anomalies in sequential data. However,
challenges such as imbalanced data, real-time processing requirements, and model interpret
ability remain significant. The future scope of anomaly detection lies in improving model
robustness, enabling real-time anomaly detection, and enhancing explain ability through
advanced techniques like self-supervised learning and explainable AI. This paper concludes
by emphasizing the growing importance of anomaly detection across various domains and
its potential to drive better decision-making and risk mitigation in complex systems.
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CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i
ABSTRACT ii
REFERENCES
LIST OF FIGURES
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Anomaly detection in time series data is the process of identifying patterns or data points that
significantly deviate from expected behavior over time. Time series data consists of observations
collected sequentially at regular intervals, such as stock prices, temperature readings, network traffic, or
sensor data in industrial machines. Anomalies, also referred to as outliers, indicate unexpected behaviors
that may represent critical issues such as fraud, system malfunctions, cyberattacks, or rare medical
conditions. Detecting these anomalies is crucial for ensuring security, operational efficiency, and
decision-making in various domains.
The significance of anomaly detection extends across multiple industries. In finance, detecting
anomalies in transaction data helps identify fraudulent activities, such as unauthorized credit card usage
or money laundering. In cybersecurity, anomaly detection is used to monitor network traffic and detect
potential security threats, such as data breaches or denial-of-service attacks. Healthcare applications
utilize anomaly detection to analyze patient data for irregular heart rates, blood sugar levels, or abnormal
brain activity, aiding in early disease diagnosis. Industrial sectors rely on anomaly detection to predict
machine failures by analyzing sensor readings, preventing costly downtime and accidents. Similarly, in
financial markets, anomalies in stock price movements can indicate market manipulations or unexpected
economic shifts.
Despite its importance, anomaly detection in time series data presents several challenges. One of the
primary difficulties is distinguishing between genuine anomalies and normal variations caused by
seasonal trends or sudden but explainable changes. Additionally, the rarity of anomalies makes it
difficult to build supervised machine learning models, as labeled data is often insufficient. Another
challenge is the phenomenon of concept drift, where data patterns change over time, requiring models to
adapt dynamically. Furthermore, real-time applications demand efficient algorithms capable of detecting
anomalies instantly, which can be computationally expensive.
This report explores different techniques used for anomaly detection in time series data, ranging from
traditional statistical methods to modern machine learning and deep learning approaches. It discusses
real-world applications, challenges, and future research directions, providing insights into how anomaly
detection contributes to various fields. Through a case study, the report also demonstrates the practical
implementation of anomaly detection techniques, highlighting their effectiveness and limitations.
This report explores various techniques used for anomaly detection in time series data, including
statistical methods, machine learning, and deep learning approaches. We will also discuss real-
world case studies, implementation challenges, and future research directions.
CHAPTER 2
TYPES AND CHALLENGES
a) Point Anomalies – A single data point deviates significantly from the rest of the time series.
b) Contextual Anomalies – A data point is considered an anomaly only in a specific context, such
as seasonality or trend.
c) Collective Anomalies – A group of data points behaves abnormally as a sequence rather than
individually.
Despite its importance, anomaly detection in time series data poses several challenges:
a) High Dimensionality and Complexity – Many datasets contain multiple correlated time series
(e.g., IoT sensor networks), making anomaly detection computationally expensive.
b) Concept Drift – Data distributions change over time, requiring adaptive models.
c) Class Imbalance – Anomalies are rare compared to normal data, making it difficult for
supervised learning models to generalize.
d) Real-Time Processing – Many applications (e.g., fraud detection, cybersecurity) require near-
instant anomaly detection, demanding highly efficient algorithms
CHAPTER 3
Statistical methods are one of the fundamental approaches for detecting anomalies in time series data.
These methods work under the assumption that normal data follows a predictable statistical distribution,
and any significant deviation from this distribution can be considered an anomaly. Statistical techniques
are widely used due to their simplicity, interpretability, and low computational cost. However, they may
not perform well in cases where the data distribution is complex or when anomalies are context-
dependent.
3.1.1 Z-Score Method
The Z-score method, also known as standard score normalization, is a technique that measures how
many standard deviations a data point is away from the mean of the dataset. It is based on the
assumption that data follows a normal distribution (Gaussian distribution), where most values lie within
a predictable range. The formula for calculating the Z-score is:
The Interquartile Range (IQR) method is a non-parametric technique used to detect outliers in data
without assuming a specific distribution. The IQR represents the spread of the middle 50% of the data
and is calculated as:
IQR=Q3−Q1
Where:
Q1 (First Quartile) is the 25th percentile of the data,
Q3 (Third Quartile) is the 75th percentile of the data.
3.1.3 Moving Average Method
The Moving Average (MA) method is a time-series-based approach used to smooth fluctuations and
identify anomalies as deviations from the expected trend. It calculates the average of a specific number
of recent data points to create a rolling average. The formula for a simple moving average over a
window of size N is:
Anomalies are detected by comparing the actual data point with the moving average. If a point deviates
significantly from the moving average, it is flagged as an anomaly.
Statistical methods provide a fundamental approach to anomaly detection in time series data. They are
computationally efficient, easy to interpret, and effective for detecting simple anomalies. However, they
may not be sufficient for handling complex, high-dimensional, or contextual anomalies, which
require more advanced techniques such as machine learning and deep learning.
3.2 Machine Learning Methods
Machine learning methods have gained significant popularity in anomaly detection due to their ability to
handle complex, high-dimensional data and adapt to evolving patterns. Unlike statistical methods, which
rely on predefined rules and assumptions about data distribution, machine learning techniques learn
from historical data to distinguish between normal and abnormal patterns. These methods can be
broadly categorized into supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised learning approaches.Since
anomalies are often rare, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning techniques are commonly used
for time series anomaly detection. Two widely used machine learning models for this purpose are
Isolation Forest and One-Class Support Vector Machine (One-Class SVM).
The Isolation Forest (IF) is an unsupervised anomaly detection algorithm that is based on the principle
that anomalies are few in number and different from normal data. Instead of modeling normal data
distribution, Isolation Forest isolates anomalies by recursively partitioning the dataset using random
decision trees. The key idea is that anomalies tend to have shorter paths in the tree structure since they
are easier to separate from normal data points.
The One-Class Support Vector Machine (One-Class SVM) is another unsupervised anomaly
detection algorithm. It is based on the concept of support vector machines (SVMs) but is designed to
separate normal data from anomalies using a boundary in high-dimensional space.
Machine learning methods like Isolation Forest and One-Class SVM provide powerful tools for
detecting anomalies in time series data. These models do not require assumptions about data distribution
and can detect anomalies in complex datasets. However, they require careful tuning and may need
retraining over time if data patterns change. In cases where anomalies are highly complex or context-
dependent, deep learning methods such as LSTMs and Autoencoders can offer better accuracy.
An autoencoder is a type of artificial neural network used to learn efficient codings of unlabeled
data (unsupervised learning). An autoencoder learns two functions: an encoding function that
transforms the input data, and a decoding function that recreates the input data from the encoded
representation. The autoencoder learns an efficient representation (encoding) for a set of data,
typically for dimensionality reduction, to generate lower-dimensional embeddings for subsequent
use by other machine learning algorithms.
LSTM Autoencoder
An LSTM Autoencoder (Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder) is a deep learning model that
combines the concepts of autoencoders and LSTM networks to detect anomalies in time series
data. LSTM networks are ideal for time series data because they are designed to capture long-
term dependencies and sequential patterns.
1. Sequential Data Handling: Unlike a normal autoencoder, which treats the input as a
static vector, an LSTM Autoencoder treats the input as a sequence. It processes time-
dependent features, making it better for sequential data, where previous values influence
future ones.
2. Better Memory: The LSTM architecture is capable of remembering patterns over long
sequences, which helps in detecting anomalies that emerge after some time, rather than
being limited to just the most recent data points.
3. Handling Complex Time Dependencies: LSTM Autoencoders can effectively capture
complex temporal dependencies and trends, something that normal autoencoders are
typically not designed to handle.
1. Training: The LSTM Autoencoder is trained on normal time series data. The
encoder compresses the data and the decoder reconstructs it, learning to minimize the
reconstruction error.
2. Anomaly Detection: After the model is trained, it is used to reconstruct new time series
data. If the reconstruction error is large, the data point or sequence is flagged as
anomalous.
3. Thresholding: A predefined threshold is set on the reconstruction error, and if the error
exceeds this threshold, the data is considered anomalous.
1. Forward Process (Diffusion): In the forward process, a data point (such as an image) is
gradually corrupted by adding Gaussian noise over a series of time steps. At the
beginning, the data is clean, and as the steps progress, more noise is added, until the data
is entirely random noise.
o Mathematically: x0x_0x0 (the clean data) is transformed to xTx_TxT (pure noise)
via a series of noise steps.
2. Reverse Process (Denoising): The reverse process is learned by the model. Starting from
random noise, the model learns to gradually remove the noise, step by step, to recover the
original data. The key idea is to reverse the diffusion process and reconstruct the data by
iteratively denoising it.
o Mathematically: xT→xT−1→⋯→x0x_T \to x_{T-1} \to \dots \to x_0xT→xT−1
→⋯→x0, where the model tries to reverse the noise addition process to
reconstruct the clean data.
Diffusion models are widely used in generative tasks like image generation, and they have been
gaining popularity for their high-quality output, particularly when compared to GANs
(Generative Adversarial Networks).
Uses the U-Net architecture with skip connections that help preserve spatial information
and multi-scale features, making it better at denoising and generating high-quality data.
The U-Net structure improves the reverse process by maintaining high
resolution and fine details, leading to more accurate and realistic
reconstructions.
Produces more refined and detailed output due to the skip connections
and multi-scale feature handling. This is particularly important for tasks
like image generation or anomaly detection, where fine details matter.
1. Better Handling of Fine-grained Features: The U-Net’s ability to preserve both global
and local features during the denoising process allows it to better capture subtle
anomalies that may be spatially or temporally distributed in complex ways.
2. Improved Accuracy: The skip connections in U-Net diffusion models help in reducing
the reconstruction error for normal data and increasing it for anomalous data, making
anomaly detection more reliable and sensitive to outliers.
3. Robust to Noise: Diffusion models, by design, are robust to noise. The reverse process removes
noise, and the U-Net structure improves the model’s ability to distinguish between normal noise
and true anomalies.
Accounts for Correlations: It takes into account the covariance structure of the data, so
it considers how different features (variables) in the data are correlated with each other.
Unit Invariance: Unlike Euclidean distance, the Mahalanobis distance is scale-invariant.
This means it’s not sensitive to the magnitude of the features but rather how features are
distributed in relation to each other.
3. Detection of Anomalies:
o Small Mahalanobis distance means that the point is relatively close to the
distribution of the normal data (normal behavior).
o Large Mahalanobis distance indicates that the point is far from the normal
distribution, suggesting an anomaly.
In the case of time series data, the Mahalanobis distance can be calculated for each time step or
sliding window of the series, and anomalous time points or windows can be flagged based on
their distance from the normal data
CHAPTER 4
CHALLENGES AND FUTURE SCOPE
One of the major challenges in anomaly detection for time series data is imbalanced data, where
anomalies occur far less frequently than normal events. Since machine learning and deep learning
models learn patterns from majority-class data, they often fail to recognize rare anomalies, leading to a
high false negative rate. This imbalance can be addressed using synthetic data generation techniques like
GANs (Generative Adversarial Networks) or oversampling methods such as SMOTE. Additionally,
cost-sensitive learning can be used to penalize incorrect anomaly classification, ensuring better
sensitivity to rare events.
Another significant issue is real-time processing, which is crucial in applications such as fraud
detection, cybersecurity, and industrial monitoring. Traditional deep learning models like LSTM
Autoencoders and Diffusion Networks require high computational resources, making them unsuitable
for real-time anomaly detection. To overcome this, lightweight models optimized for speed, such as
streaming LSTMs and efficient transformer architectures, are being explored. Edge computing is another
promising solution, where anomaly detection is performed directly on IoT devices or cloud-edge
architectures, reducing latency and improving efficiency.
Model interpretability and explainability pose another challenge, especially in critical applications
like healthcare and finance, where understanding why an anomaly is detected is as important as
detecting it. Deep learning models often act as "black boxes," making it difficult for users to trust the
results. Techniques like SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-
Agnostic Explanations) help in identifying which features contribute most to anomaly detection.
Attention-based models, such as transformers, also improve interpretability by highlighting the most
influential time steps in a sequence.
To improve anomaly detection, future research is focused on developing better algorithms that enhance
accuracy and robustness. Self-supervised learning, which trains models without requiring labeled
anomalies, is gaining attention as it reduces the dependence on manually labeled datasets. Additionally,
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are being explored for detecting anomalies in interconnected data, such
as financial transactions or network traffic. Hybrid models that combine statistical, machine learning,
and deep learning approaches are expected to enhance anomaly detection by leveraging the strengths of
multiple techniques.
The demand for real-time and streaming anomaly detection is also pushing advancements in
federated learning, which allows models to be trained across multiple decentralized devices without
sharing sensitive data. Event-driven models, which trigger anomaly detection only when necessary, can
help in reducing computational costs. Reinforcement learning is another emerging approach, where
models dynamically adapt to new data patterns over time, improving anomaly detection in evolving
environments.
Another key area of improvement is interpretability and trustworthiness, where researchers are
focusing on causality-based models that not only detect anomalies but also explain their root causes.
Explainable AI (XAI) frameworks are being developed to provide more transparent decision-making in
anomaly detection systems. Human-in-the-loop systems, where domain experts interact with AI models,
can further enhance the reliability of anomaly detection in real-world applications.
With advancements in deep learning and AI, anomaly detection is expected to play a critical role in
various domains such as cybersecurity, healthcare, finance, and industrial monitoring. More
adaptive, interpretable, and real-time solutions will enable businesses and researchers to detect and
respond to anomalies effectively, ensuring better security, efficiency, and decision-making in complex
systems.
CONCLUSION
Anomaly detection in time series data is a crucial technique with applications in cybersecurity, fraud
detection, industrial monitoring, and healthcare. The field has evolved significantly with the introduction
of advanced statistical methods, machine learning algorithms, and deep learning techniques such as
LSTM Autoencoders and Diffusion Networks (U-Net). However, several challenges remain, including
handling imbalanced data, ensuring real-time processing, and improving model interpretability.
Future advancements in self-supervised learning, graph neural networks, and reinforcement learning will
help build more accurate and efficient anomaly detection models. Additionally, the integration of
explainable AI (XAI) techniques will enhance trust and transparency in critical applications. As anomaly
detection continues to improve, it will enable businesses and researchers to proactively identify
unusual patterns, mitigate risks, and make data-driven decisions with greater confidence.
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