Associate Case Study - Model
Associate Case Study - Model
Sales by segment:
United States Sales $7,765.0 $11,901.0 $11,249.0 $10,464.0 $10,482.0 $11,006.1 $11,556.4 $12,134.2 $12,740.9 $13,378.0
A 50% growth forecast for gross profit in a furniture brand can be realistically
projected when considering an alignment of demand growth, operational
improvements, pricing strategies, market expansion, and efficient cost
management. If these factors align and the brand can capitalize on emerging
GP margin % 23.5% 29.1% 28.4% 28.0% 30.6% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% >> trends and opportunities, such growth is achievable.
Selling, operations, technology, general and administrative (1,432.0) (1,540.0) (1,693.0) (2,254.0) (2,030.0) (1,198.6) (1,256.5) (1,317.5) (1,381.6) (1,449.0)
The forecasted 10% increase in SG&A costs is likely a combination of strategic
investments in growth areas (such as marketing, technology, and expansion),
higher operational costs due to inflation, and investments aimed at improving the
customer experience. Given that furniture is a competitive industry, companies
often increase their SG&A budgets to gain a market advantage or maintain
profitability while dealing with inflationary pressures and expanding their
footprint.
% of sales 15.7% 10.9% 12.4% 18.4% 16.9% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% >>
Advertising (1,096.0) (1,412.0) (1,378.0) (1,473.0) (1,397.0) (630.2) (661.7) (694.7) (729.5) (766.0)
Depreciation & Amortization (192.0) (286.0) (322.0) (371.0) (417.0) (61.7) (66.8) (72.0) (77.4) (82.9)
Restructuring charges - (4.0) - (31.0) (65.0) - - - - -
Impairment and other related charges - - (12.0) (39.0) (14.0) - - - - -
Operating Income (EBIT) (930.0) 360.0 (94.0) (1,384.0) (813.0) 4,285.1 4,499.3 4,724.3 4,960.5 5,208.5
EBIT margin % (10.2%) 2.5% (0.7%) (11.3%) (6.8%) 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0% 34.0%
Interest expense (55.0) (146.0) (32.0) (27.0) (17.0) (246.7) (245.5) (244.3) (243.1) (241.8)
Other income 3.0 (9.0) (4.0) (4.0) 1.0 630.2 661.7 694.7 729.5 766.0
A 5% growth forecast reflects the brand’s ability to steadily increase income
through non-core but complementary business activities, which generally grow at a
% of sales 0.0% (0.1%) (0.0%) (0.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% >> stable, incremental pace over time.
Gain on debt extinguishment - - 96.0 100.0 - - - - -
PBT (982.0) 205.0 (130.0) (1,319.0) (729.0) 4,668.5 4,915.5 5,174.8 5,446.9 5,732.6
PBT margin % (10.8%) 1.4% (0.9%) (10.8%) (6.1%) 37.0% 37.1% 37.2% 37.3% 37.4%
Income tax expense (3.0) (20.0) (1.0) (12.0) (9.0) (980.4) (1,032.3) (1,086.7) (1,143.9) (1,203.9)
The forecast of a 21% increase in income tax expense could be based on the
expected rise in taxable profits due to the combination of higher sales, increased
operational efficiency, potential changes in tax rates, and other business
expansions or operational improvements. This growth in tax expense would
typically reflect a robust business performance, with the company becoming more
profitable, while also navigating external factors like tax reforms or changes in
Effective tax rate % (0.3%) 9.8% (0.8%) (0.9%) (1.2%) 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% >> economic conditions.
Net income (985.0) 185.0 (131.0) (1,331.0) (738.0) 3,688.1 3,883.2 4,088.1 4,303.1 4,528.8
Net income margin % (10.8%) 1.3% (1.0%) (10.9%) (6.1%) 29.3% 29.3% 29.4% 29.5% 29.6%
Historical Projected
Particulars FY19 A FY20 A FY21 A FY22 A FY23 A FY24 P FY25 P FY26 P FY27 P FY28 P Rationale behind assumptions
> Balance Sheet:
ASSETS
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $582.8 $2,130.0 $1,706.0 $1,050.0 $1,322.0 $6,091.6 $9,863.9 $13,834.4 $18,013.2 $22,410.7
Short term investments 404.3 462.0 693.0 228.0 29.0 630.2 661.7 694.7 729.5 766.0
Accounts receivable, net 99.7 110.0 226.0 272.0 140.0 345.3 362.6 380.7 399.7 419.7
Inventories 61.7 52.0 69.0 90.0 75.0 345.3 362.6 380.7 399.7 419.7
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 228.7 292.0 318.0 293.0 289.0 1,260.3 1,323.3 1,389.5 1,459.0 1,531.9
Total Current Assets 1,377.1 3,046.0 3,012.0 1,933.0 1,855.0 8,672.6 12,574.0 16,680.1 21,001.1 25,548.0
Non-current Assets:
Operating Lease R-O-U assets 763.4 808.0 849.0 839.0 820.0 820.0 820.0 820.0 820.0 820.0
Property, plant, and equipment, net 624.5 684.0 674.0 774.0 748.0 812.8 879.0 946.7 1,016.1 1,087.5
Long-term investments 155.7 - - - - 126.0 132.3 138.9 145.9 153.2
Other assets 32.3 32.0 35.0 34.0 51.0 63.1 75.7 88.8 102.5 116.8
Total Non-current Assets 1,575.9 1,524.0 1,558.0 1,647.0 1,619.0 1,822.0 1,907.0 1,994.5 2,084.6 2,177.5
Total Assets 2,953.0 4,570.0 4,570.0 3,580.0 3,474.0 10,494.6 14,481.1 18,674.5 23,085.6 27,725.5
Non-current liabilities:
Long-term debt 1,456.2 2,659.0 3,052.0 3,137.0 3,092.0 3,076.5 3,061.2 3,045.9 3,030.6 3,015.5
Revolver - - - - -
Operaiting lease 822.6 870.0 892.0 893.0 862.0 862.0 862.0 862.0 862.0 862.0
Other non-current liabilities 6.9 67.0 28.0 28.0 44.0 68.8 94.5 121.4 149.4 178.5
Total non-current liabilities 2,285.7 3,596.0 3,972.0 4,058.0 3,998.0 4,007.3 4,017.7 4,029.2 4,042.0 4,056.0
Total Liabilities 3,897.3 5,762.0 6,189.0 6,130.0 6,181.0 6,476.1 6,610.0 6,751.1 6,900.0 7,056.9
Stockholders' equity:
Class A common stock, par value $0.001 per share, 500,000,000
shares authorized, 72,980,490 and 66,642,611 shares issued and 0.1 - - - - - - - - -
outstanding at December 31, 2020 and 2019
Class B common stock, par value $0.001 per share, 164,000,000
shares authorized, 26,564,234 and 26,957,815 shares issued and 0.0 - - - - - - - - -
outstanding at December 31, 2020 and 2019
Additional paid-in capital 1,122.5 699.0 337.0 737.0 1,316.0 1,316.0 1,316.0 1,316.0 1,316.0 1,316.0
Accumulated deficit (2,065.4) (1,886.0) (1,949.0) (3,280.0) (4,018.0) (329.9) 3,553.3 7,641.4 11,944.5 16,473.3
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (1.4) (5.0) (7.0) (7.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)
Total stockholders' equity (944.2) (1,192.0) (1,619.0) (2,550.0) (2,707.0) 981.1 4,864.3 8,952.4 13,255.5 17,784.3
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 2,953.0 4,570.0 4,570.0 3,580.0 3,474.0 7,457.2 11,474.3 15,703.5 20,155.4 24,841.1
Check - - - - - 3,037.4 3,006.8 2,971.0 2,930.2 2,884.4
Historical Projected
Particulars FY19 A FY20 A FY21 A FY22 A FY23 A FY24 P FY25 P FY26 P FY27 P FY28 P Rationale behind assumptions
> Cash Flow Statement:
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents and restr (2.0) 13.0 (16.0) 1.0 2.0 - - - - -
Net increase (decrease) in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted ca (267.0) 1,547.0 (424.0) (656.0) 276.0 4,769.6 3,772.4 3,970.5 4,178.7 4,397.6
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at beginning of year 850.0 583.0 2,130.0 1,706.0 1,050.0 1,322.0 6,091.6 9,863.9 13,834.4 18,013.2
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at end of year 583.0 2,130.0 1,706.0 1,050.0 1,326.0 6,091.6 9,863.9 13,834.4 18,013.2 22,410.7
Historical Projected
Particulars FY19 A FY20 A FY21 A FY22 A FY23 A FY24 P FY25 P FY26 P FY27 P FY28 P Rationale behind assumptions
> PP&E Schedule:
Opening Balance 748.0 812.8 879.0 946.7 1,016.1
Add: CapEx 126.0 132.3 138.9 145.9 153.2
Less: Depreciation (61.2) (66.2) (71.3) (76.5) (81.9)
Closing Balance 748.0 812.8 879.0 946.7 1,016.1 1,087.5
CapEx % of sales 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% >> Rationale?
Depreciation % of opening balance 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% >> Rationale?
Accounts receivable 99.7 110.0 226.0 272.0 140.0 345.3 362.6 380.7 399.7 419.7
Receivable days 4 3 6 8 4 10 10 10 10 10 >> Rationale?
Inventories 61.7 52.0 69.0 90.0 75.0 345.3 362.6 380.7 399.7 419.7
Inventory days 3 2 3 4 3 20 20 20 20 20 >> Rationale?
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 228.7 292.0 318.0 293.0 289.0 1,260.3 1,323.3 1,389.5 1,459.0 1,531.9
% of sales 2.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% >> Rationale?
Accounts payable 908.1 1,157.0 1,166.0 1,204.0 1,234.0 1,208.5 1,268.9 1,332.4 1,399.0 1,469.0
Payable days 47 42 43 50 54 70 70 70 70 70 >> Rationale?
Other accrued liabilities 703.4 1,009.0 1,051.0 868.0 949.0 1,260.3 1,323.3 1,389.5 1,459.0 1,531.9
% of sales 7.7% 7.1% 7.7% 7.1% 7.9% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% >> Rationale?