Mainstream Economics’ Medieval Inflation

Medicine
Dec 29, 2023 James K. Galbraith, Project Syndicate

Considering that the US inflation rate peaked in June 2022, there is no evidence that monetary
policy had any significant effect on the direction taken by prices. Yet, like premodern physicians
committed to the ancient humoral theory of disease, mainstream economists today have shown
that they lack the tools to cure the patient.

When assessments of the quasi-inflation of 2021-22 appeared in major US media outlets

Smialek’s article illustrates the fetish of Fed worship. The two economists she quotes, a
former Fed official and a banker, are resolute in crediting Powell and his colleagues. “The Fed
right now looks pretty dang good,” says one. “Certainly they’ve done very well,” says the other.
Still, some readers may harbor doubts, because, as Smialek notes, we have “an outcome that
[the Fed’s] own staff economists viewed as unlikely just six months ago.”
What should we make of this? Supposedly, the Fed’s actions “played a role in …
keeping consumers from adjusting their expectations.” Yet none of the experts, including the
professionals who guide policy, shared the inflation optimism now attributed to the consuming
masses or even detected its presence. With all their surveys and all their models, they were
surprised.
Smialek admits that other factors were at work, noting that “higher interest rates didn’t
heal supply chains.” She could have gone further, reminding readers that inflation peaked back
in June 2022, only three months after the Fed started hiking interest rates. At that time, the
Fed’s policy rate had risen just 75 basis points, and no one knew how much higher it might go.
In fact, we have no evidence that monetary policy had any significant effect on the course taken
by prices – certainly not before the June 2022 turning point, and not thereafter, either.
In modern medicine, a specific diagnosis normally leads to a specific treatment. But that
is not the case in modern economics. Instead, the absence of an orderly sequence in the recent
episode recalls the medieval approach to medicine, according to which all disease stemmed
from an imbalance of the four bodily “humors.” And, as in pre-modern medicine, the treatment
is always the same, regardless of the nature of the humoral imbalance. Medieval doctors drew
blood; modern central bankers raise interest rates. The parallel is exact, because the thinking
hasn’t changed.
In mainstream macroeconomics today, blood, phlegm, yellow bile, and black bile have
been replaced by money, government spending, jobs, and expectations. While the few
remaining monetarists blame “money printing,” fiscalists focus on budget deficits. Then there
are the Phillips-curve holdovers, for whom a low unemployment rate must signal danger.
Expectations theories cover the gaps left by the other three.
 Consider Lawrence H. Summers, the Harvard University professor and former US
Secretary of the Treasury whom the Financial Times rightly describes as “one of the most
influential economists of our time.” From early 2021, he was also America’s leading inflation
hawk, predicting high and persistent inflation and demanding sharp increases in interest rates.
Summers’s early analyses boiled down to two claims: the labor market was too hot, and
fiscal stimulus – pandemic relief, infrastructure spending, investment incentives – was too
strong. The first concern rested on the Phillips curve, a relic of the 1960s; the second was
informed by the experience of the Vietnam war, also dating to the 1960s. As Summers reveals
in a recent interview with the Financial Times, his diagnostic tools have not evolved much since
his adolescence. Though he concedes that “it certainly hasn’t been a glorious period for the
Phillips curve,” he then hastens to add: “But I’m not sure we have a satisfactory alternative
theory.”
Assuming that “we” refers to mainstream economists, Summers is correct. He relegates
Milton Friedman’s monetarism to “extreme” cases like Argentina, and he is ambivalent about
expectations. Under the expectations theory, he notes, “inflation is set by inflation expectations,
and inflation expectations are set by the people who form inflation expectations.” Given this
circular reasoning, Summers concludes, “inflation theory is in very substantial disarray.”
Except that it’s not. There was, and is, a competing view, dismissed at the time as “team
transitory.” Summers acknowledges our existence, and he even concedes that we have prevailed
for now. But he cannot bring himself to confront our arguments. Instead, he claims: “Ironically,
if team transitory proves to be vindicated, it will be because their policy advice was not taken.
It will be because the Fed moved strongly enough.” Here we encounter the late medieval spirit
in full flower. The counselors are clueless, and the shaman is blind, but his magic powers cannot
be challenged.
On December 18, 2023, Washington Post reporters Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein wrote
that “the economy is ending the year in a remarkably better position than almost anyone … in
mainstream economics had predicted.” The reference to “mainstream” reminds us that there is
an alternative, whose predictions, on this occasion, were more accurate. The Post writers
explain the temporary factors that actually drove the 2021-22 quasi-inflation: energy shocks,
supply-chain disruptions, housing. And then they venture a step closer to the forbidden line.
While still crediting the Fed, they also point to steps that the Biden administration took to
address these specific problems.
This is half right. White House policies – including sales from the strategic petroleum
reserve and pressure on ports to stay open around the clock – were important. So were market
forces and the simple passage of time. Fed policy had nothing to do with it.
Of course, conceding that much would be a step too far. It would mean that economics
is moving from the age of bloodletting and incantations to one inspired by, say, Louis Pasteur
(a pioneer of immunology) and Alexander Fleming (the discoverer of penicillin). If economics
finally became a discipline in which specific diagnostics led to specific cures, the necromancers
would have to go. We are not there yet, but perhaps that time will come.