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Tutorial-4_Solution

The document covers various probability distributions including Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, and Uniform distributions, providing examples and solutions for each. It includes calculations for probabilities related to coin tosses, die rolls, and other scenarios. Additionally, it discusses concepts like Bayes' theorem and the coupon collector's problem.

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Prince Prajapati
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
2 views

Tutorial-4_Solution

The document covers various probability distributions including Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, and Uniform distributions, providing examples and solutions for each. It includes calculations for probabilities related to coin tosses, die rolls, and other scenarios. Additionally, it discusses concepts like Bayes' theorem and the coupon collector's problem.

Uploaded by

Prince Prajapati
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Distribution

Bernoulli Distribution
1. A fair coin is tossed. Let X be the random variable that takes the value 1 if heads occurs and 0
if tails occurs. What is the probability mass function of X?

Solution: P(X = 1) = p = 0.5, P(X = 0) = 1 - p = 0.5


2. In a Bernoulli trial with probability of success p = 0.7, what is the variance of the outcome?

Solution: Variance = p(1-p) = 0.7(1-0.7) = 0.21


3. A manufacturing process has a 5% defect rate. If we randomly select one item, what is the
probability of it being non-defective?

Solution: P(non-defective) = 1 - P(defective) = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95


Binomial Distribution
4. A fair six-sided die is rolled 10 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 3 sixes?

Solution: P(X = 3) = C(10,3) * (1/6)^3 * (5/6)^7 ≈ 0.1550


5. In a batch of 20 light bulbs, each has an independent 10% chance of being defective. What is
the probability that exactly 2 bulbs are defective?

Solution: P(X = 2) = C(20,2) * (0.1)^2 * (0.9)^18 ≈ 0.2852


6. A basketball player has a 70% free throw success rate. If she attempts 8 free throws, what is the
probability she makes at least 6?

Solution: P(X ≥ 6) = P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) + P(X = 8) = C(8,6) * (0.7)^6 * (0.3)^2 + C(8,7) *


(0.7)^7 * (0.3)^1 + C(8,8) * (0.7)^8 ≈ 0.5583
Poisson Distribution
7. On average, a call center receives 12 calls per hour. What is the probability of receiving exactly
15 calls in the next hour?

Solution: P(X = 15) = (12^15 * e^(-12)) / 15! ≈ 0.0798


8. A radioactive source emits particles at an average rate of 5 per minute. What is the probability
of observing 3 or fewer particles in a one-minute period?

Solution: P(X ≤ 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) = e^(-5) * (5^0/0! + 5^1/1! +


5^2/2! + 5^3/3!) ≈ 0.2650
9. Typos occur at an average rate of 2 per page in a long document. What is the probability of
finding more than 5 typos on a randomly selected page?

Solution: P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5) = 1 - (e^(-2) * (2^0/0! + 2^1/1! + 2^2/2! + 2^3/3! + 2^4/4!
+ 2^5/5!)) ≈ 0.0527
Uniform Distribution (Continuous)
10. A bus is scheduled to arrive at a stop every 15 minutes. If you arrive at the stop at a random
time, what is the probability you'll wait less than 5 minutes?

Solution: P(X < 5) = 5 / 15 = 1/3 ≈ 0.3333


11. The lifetime of a certain electronic component is uniformly distributed between 1000 and 1500
hours. What is the probability that a randomly selected component will last between 1200 and
1400 hours?

Solution: P(1200 < X < 1400) = (1400 - 1200) / (1500 - 1000) = 200 / 500 = 0.4
12. A random number is chosen from the interval [0, 10]. What is the probability that it's greater
than 7?

Solution: P(X > 7) = (10 - 7) / (10 - 0) = 3/10 = 0.3


Mixed Questions
13. A fair coin is tossed 100 times. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to
estimate the probability of getting exactly 55 heads.

Solution: λ = np = 100 * 0.5 = 50 P(X = 55) ≈ (50^55 * e^(-50)) / 55! ≈ 0.0505


14. In a large population, 20% of people have a certain genetic marker. If we randomly sample 15
people, what is the probability that at least 5 of them have the marker?

Solution: This follows a binomial distribution with n = 15, p = 0.2 P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - P(X < 5) =
1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)] ≈ 1 - 0.8605 = 0.1395
15. A continuous uniform random variable X is distributed over the interval [a, b]. If P(X < 10) =
0.4 and P(X > 15) = 0.3, find the values of a and b.

Solution: Let's solve this step by step: 1) P(X < 10) = (10 - a) / (b - a) = 0.4 2) P(X > 15) = (b
- 15) / (b - a) = 0.3 3) From (2), we can say P(X < 15) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7 4) (15 - a) / (b - a) = 0.7
5) From (1) and (4): (10 - a) / (b - a) = 0.4 (15 - a) / (b - a) = 0.7 6) Solving these equations: 15
- a = 1.75(10 - a) 15 - a = 17.5 - 1.75a 0.75a = 2.5 a = 3.33 7) Substituting back: (10 - 3.33) / (b
- 3.33) = 0.4 6.67 = 0.4b - 1.332 8.002 = 0.4b b = 20 Therefore, a ≈ 3.33 and b = 20.
16. A group of 100 people take a test. The scores are normally distributed with a mean of
70 and a standard deviation of 15. The top 10% of scorers are offered a scholarship.
What is the minimum score needed to qualify for the scholarship?

Solution: Let X be the test score. We need to find x such that P(X > x) = 0.10. This is
equivalent to finding x where P(X ≤ x) = 0.90. For a standard normal Z, this means
P(Z ≤ z) = 0.90. From the standard normal table, z ≈ 1.28. Now we can convert back
to X: (x - μ)/σ = 1.28, so x = 70 + (1.28 * 15) = 89.2. Therefore, a minimum score of
about 89.2 is needed to qualify.
17. In a Poisson process, events occur at an average rate of 3 per hour. What is the
probability that exactly 5 events occur in a 2-hour period, given that at least 2 events
occur?

Solution: Let X be the number of events in 2 hours. X ~ Poisson(λ = 3 * 2 = 6). We


want P(X = 5 | X ≥ 2). P(X = 5 | X ≥ 2) = P(X = 5) / P(X ≥ 2) P(X = 5) = e^(-6) * 6^5
/ 5! ≈ 0.1606 P(X ≥ 2) = 1 - P(X < 2) = 1 - (e^(-6) * (6^0/0! + 6^1/1!)) ≈ 0.9826
Therefore, P(X = 5 | X ≥ 2) = 0.1606 / 0.9826 ≈ 0.1634 or about 16.34%.
18. A biased die has the following probabilities for each face: P(1) = 0.1, P(2) = 0.1, P(3)
= 0.2, P(4) = 0.2, P(5) = 0.2, P(6) = 0.2 The die is rolled repeatedly until the sum of
the rolls exceeds 10. What is the expected number of rolls?

Solution: Let X be the number of rolls needed. This is a negative binomial


distribution with r = 11 (we need to exceed 10) and p = P(success) = P(sum increases
by 11 or more in one roll) = 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.4. E[X] = r/p = 11/0.4 = 27.5 rolls.
19. In a population of 1000 people, 100 have a rare genetic marker. A test for this marker
has a sensitivity of 95% (true positive rate) and a specificity of 98% (true negative
rate). If a person tests positive, what is the probability they actually have the marker?
Solution: Let A be the event of having the marker, and B be the event of testing
positive. We want P(A|B), which we can find using Bayes' theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A)
* P(A) / [P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)] P(B|A) = 0.95 (sensitivity) P(A) =
100/1000 = 0.1 P(B|not A) = 1 - 0.98 = 0.02 (1 - specificity) P(not A) = 0.9 P(A|B) =
(0.95 * 0.1) / (0.95 * 0.1 + 0.02 * 0.9) ≈ 0.8407 Therefore, the probability is about
84.07%.
20. A fair six-sided die is rolled repeatedly. What is the expected number of rolls until all
six numbers have appeared at least once?

Solution: This is the coupon collector's problem. Let X be the number of rolls needed.
E[X] = n * (1/1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 + 1/6), where n = 6 (number of sides). E[X] = 6
* (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 + 1/5 + 1/6) ≈ 14.7 rolls.

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