TIOmarkets eBook 04-2024
TIOmarkets eBook 04-2024
TIOmarkets
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly
due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and
whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit
more than you are prepared to lose. Professional client's losses can exceed their
deposit. Please see our risk warning policy and seek independent professional
advice if you do not fully understand. This information is not directed or intended
for distribution to or use by residents of certain countries/jurisdictions including,
but not limited to, USA & OFAC. The Company holds the right to alter the
aforementioned list of countries at its own discretion.
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Preface
Welcome to "Forex Decoded: Maximize your profit potential in the currency markets."
If you're reading this, you're likely curious about or already involved in the thrilling world of Forex
trading. Whether you're an experienced trader looking to refine your strategies or a beginner
eager to explore the possibilities and potential of Forex trading, this book is created with you in
mind.
The foreign exchange market, or Forex for short, is the largest and most liquid financial market
in the world, where currencies are traded 24 hours a day, five days a week. With trillions of
dollars exchanged daily, making it an enticing and attractive marketplace for people worldwide.
However, succeeding in the Forex market isn’t about luck, it demands a certain level of
understanding and to treat it like a serious business. "Forex Decoded" is your complete guide to
the Forex market, giving you the knowledge and tools you need to maximize your profit potential
in the currency markets.
The decision to write "Forex Decoded" stemmed from a passion for teaching and helping people
reach their full potential in the currency markets. This book is about giving you the
understanding, skills, and mindset to trade in the market confidently and responsibly. It's about
demystifying Forex trading and decoding the path towards success, based on the knowledge
and experience of others who have taken this path before you.
As you embark on the journey through the pages of "Forex Decoded," we encourage you to
approach each chapter with an open mind and a willingness to learn. Then to apply that
knowledge with action, either on a demo account or a live account with a small investment.
Remember that success in Forex trading is not guaranteed, it has its challenges, but with
dedication and practice, you can enhance your profit potential.
Remember, anything worth having or achieving is worth investing in and striving for with
relentless determination.
We wish you all the best in your Forex trading and hope that this book, "Forex Decoded" serves
as a valuable companion that propels you on your path towards success.
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Table of Contents
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Chapter 8: Navigating High Impact Economic Events 73
● Understanding economic indicators and their impact
● Trading strategies for news releases
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Chapter 1: Introduction to Forex Trading
The Forex market is made up of a global network of banks, spread across the four major
financial centers. As one financial center is closing, another is just opening so the Forex market
is open 24 hours a day, five days a week.
Trading in the Forex market is much simpler than most people imagine. The barriers and costs
to enter are very low and the potential exists to profit from your very first deal.
You can Start trading by registering your account, depositing funds, and downloading the
platform to your computer or smartphone.
Let’s look at an example between the euro and the US Dollar, which is represented with the
EURUSD symbol. In this case, the base currency is the euro, while the quote or counter
currency is the US Dollar.
If the EURUSD exchange rate is 1.2000, it means that one euro (base currency) is equivalent to
1.2000 US Dollars (quote currency).
When trading Forex, you have the choice between buying and selling a currency pair.
The financial instrument offered by online brokers to trade in the Forex market is known as a
contract for difference (CFD). The CFD’s value tracks the rate of exchange and allows you to
trade currencies without having to make conversions and transfers between bank accounts.
If you think the price of a currency pair is likely to rise, then you will open a buy trade. For
example, if you believe the euro is going to appreciate against the US Dollar, then you will buy
the EURUSD.
On the other hand, if you think the price of the EURUSD is likely to go down, then you will sell
the currency pair.
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Forex trading terminology
The financial industry and trading specifically have many terms that you should know. You will
come across these often and it’s imperative to understand the basic and common ones.
PIP
Price movements in the Forex market are measured in PIPs. This is an acronym for Percentage
In Points. For example, if the price of the EURUSD moves up from 1.2000 to 1.2001, the price
has increased by 1 pip. A PIP is equal to the fourth decimal place in the price quote (0.0001).
Except for currency pairs that involve the Japanese Yen (JPY), where the PIP is measured from
the second decimal place (0.01).
Spread
The spread is the price difference between the buy (ASK) and sell (BID) prices for the currency
pair. When the price for the EURUSD is 1.2000/01, the difference between 1.2000 and 1.2001 is
one pip. The price needs to move by the distance of the spread to break even and move beyond
it before your trades become profitable.
Lots
Currencies are traded in lots, this refers to the volume that is being bought or sold. One lot is the
equivalent of trading $100,000. You can also trade in mini lots, which is the equivalent of
$10,000 of currency, and micro lots which is $1,000.
The lot size or volume of trade determines the value of each pip. So when you trade one lot, a
one pip move up or down in the price would approximately be worth $10.
A short position is simply the reverse of the long position. When a trader is “short”, they have
sold the base currency in the pair to buy the quote or counter currency. Short positions in the
market benefit from falling prices.
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Bullish and bearish
In a bull market, the price trend has been or is expected to continue on an upward trajectory.
When a Forex trader is “bullish”, it implies that they are confident the price of a currency pair will
rise.
Bear markets involve falling prices. So when a trader is “bearish”, they are confident that prices
will continue to fall.
Filled
An order is “filled” once it is executed and a deal is opened or it has been closed. This is the
basic act of buying and selling and undertaking a market transaction.
Liquidity
The liquidity refers to an asset's ability to be bought and sold and converted into cash. The
Forex market is very liquid, so you can buy or sell currencies instantly, practically whenever you
like. Other assets might not be as liquid, especially if the volume of trade is low or people trade
it infrequently.
Volatility
Volatility measures how quickly prices change or the price range currencies move over a given
period. A highly volatile currency pair has rapid price fluctuations and large price ranges. Some
currency pairs are more volatile than others, so you can profit or lose money faster or slower
depending on what you trade.
Slippage
When the price you see or want to execute differs from the price your order gets filled at. The
difference is referred to as Slippage. It is possible to experience price slippage in the market
during highly volatile times or when liquidity is low.
Just follow these 5 simple steps; you could be trading within a matter of minutes.
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2) Make the first deposit
The registration process only takes a few minutes. Once you have registered, you can choose a
convenient deposit method to fund your account. Your funds will then appear in your TIO
Markets wallet within your secure client portal.
5) Start trading
Once you have selected what currency pair to trade, click the new order button, select the lot
size, and then click “Buy” or “Sell”. Now you have established a position in the Forex market.
If your prediction is correct, you will see your deals accruing profit. Once you have reached your
target, you can close the deal to take that profit and the funds will be credited to your account.
Also, it is important to understand that Forex trading carries risk, adverse price movements can
result in your deals being closed with a loss.
Then some treat trading as a hobby, or a part-time or full-time job to generate a healthy income.
But the real question is; why should you start Forex trading? Why should you trade Forex over
other markets?
You must take into consideration the pros and cons of a financial market before committing your
time and money to it. Popularity can be a shortcut to decision making and since it is the market
of choice for so many others, this might be a good enough reason why you should start Forex
trading too.
If not, Forex has some significant advantages over other markets, especially for beginners. The
barriers to entry are low; it doesn’t require a large initial investment and it is easily accessible.
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10 reasons why you should start Forex trading
The FX market is divided into three main trading sessions. These are the US session, the
European or London session, and the Asian session. When one session is closing, another one
is opening, which keeps the market open 24 hours a day.
Top tip: Consider what time zone you are in and when you will be trading. Consider trading
currencies that are active during those times. There is usually, always a trade to be made
somewhere in the world.
As your experience grows, there are also plenty of readily available resources for the
intermediate trader who is ready to take their skill to the next level. Even though successful
trading needs skill and experience, anyone can learn to trade currencies. No degrees in
economics or finance are required.
3. It’s beginner-friendly and you can try it without taking any risk
Beginners and inexperienced traders can practice trading with a free demo account. This
essentially means that you can simulate trading Forex with virtual funds. The demo allows
novice traders to get a feel of the trading environment and familiarize themselves with the
trading platform without taking any risks. Consequently, it allows novice traders to learn the
process of placing trades and developing skills and strategies.
4. It’s a highly liquid market so you can buy and sell with ease
The high liquidity in Forex means it’s easy to find a buyer or seller so you can get in and out of
the market easily. A currency can be bought and sold in the market with limited effect on its
value too. Forex’s high trading volume means that it is easy and fast for a trader to enter a trade
but also greatly reduces the risk of potential price manipulation from others, even by someone
who trades in high volumes.
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Therefore, the sheer global scale of foreign exchange, the 24-hour activity, and the high trading
volume increase the liquidity of the market, which in turn helps keep the prices comparatively
stable.
5. You can start with small amounts; Forex is suitable for all budgets
Less capital is required to get you started compared to other markets, like stocks. You can open
an account and start trading with a very small amount. This is one of the things that make this
so appealing; you can try it with a small investment.
Spreads and commissions when trading currencies are relatively low, compared to other
markets, making Forex trading very attractive.
This outbreak in popularity has resulted in the creation of innovative software for trading
platforms and mobile applications for on-the-go trading..
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This is much like we do with property when placing a deposit for a mortgage, by placing a
relatively small deposit you can buy an asset that is of much greater value. In trading terms,
your leverage will be expressed as a ratio. For example, let’s assume you have $1,000 in your
trading account and a Forex broker offers you 200:1 leverage. This means that you can trade
deal sizes worth 200 x 1000 = $200,000. Although leverage can help you achieve larger profits
you must exercise caution when using it, as it can also increase your losses.
Some of these governing bodies include The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the
Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the National Futures Association
(NFA) in the USA, and the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). These
authorities regulate and monitor the brokers and set the standards for compliance that all
platforms have to abide by in their jurisdictions. Such as being registered, licensed and audited
regularly.
As a result, this gives you peace of mind that they operate legitimately, you have some funds
protection and your trades are executed at fair market prices.
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Chapter 2: The Mechanics of Forex Trading
Each currency pair consists of a base currency and a quote currency, where the base currency
is the one being bought or sold, and the quote currency is the one used to make the exchange.
In the Forex market, currencies are divided into three main categories, which are:
● The majors
● The minors or cross-currencies
● Exotics
The majors are widely traded and are very popular among novice and experienced traders.
Because they are the most liquid currency pairs and have lower spreads. Unlike the other
currency pairs, the majors are also generally more stable.
The currencies originating from these nations have developed economies and their political
institutions are much more consistent and established than other countries.
● Euro (EURUSD)
● Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
● Great British Pound (GBPUSD)
● Swiss Franc (USDCHF)
● Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
● Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
● New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
Many also believe that the last three currencies are also commonly referred to as “commodity
currencies” because their values are significantly influenced by commodity prices.
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The minors or cross-currencies
The minor currency pairs refer to exchange rates between the major currencies that do not
include or cross the US Dollar. Some of the most popular ones are:
For example, the Euro versus the US Dollar is the most commonly traded currency pair. You will
usually see the exchange rate quoted like this:
EUR/USD 1.1000
The first currency (EUR) is the base currency, and the second currency (USD) is the quoted or
counter currency. The exchange rate tells you how many units of the quote currency you can
buy with one unit of the base currency.
If the EUR/USD pair is quoted as 1.1000, it means that you need 1.1000 US Dollars to buy one
Euro or one Euro to buy one US Dollar and ten cents.
The fourth decimal place is what is referred to as the pip. The pip is the unit of measure for price
movements and this is also how your potential profit or loss from Forex trading is calculated.
Most currency pairs are quoted to five decimal places for an even more precise rate of
exchange. The fifth decimal place is referred to as a point or pipette and represents 1/10th of a
pip.
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Here is an example of a Forex trade:
If you exchange US Dollars to buy 100,000 euros and the price moves up from 1.10012 (ASK)
to 1.10062 (BID), your profit would be 5 pips or the equivalent of $50. But if the price moves in
the opposite direction by 5 PIPs to 1.09962, you would be losing 5 pips or the equivalent of $50.
The price movement between currencies will vary depending on market conditions. But as you
can see, even the smallest price movement can result in significant profit or loss.
It all depends on your trade size and in Forex trading, currencies are traded in lots
One standard lot is the equivalent of trading 100,000 units of currency. But it can go as low as
one micro lot, which is 1,000 units of currency. The higher your lot size and depending on how
far the price moves, the more you can potentially make or lose.
The most popular retail Forex trading platforms today, which are MT4 & MT5, allow you to trade
lot sizes that practically anyone would be comfortable with. You can also trade lot sizes that are
unrealistic for the vast majority of people due to capital and leverage limitations.
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When trading in the Forex market, you are faced with the decision of what lot size to use. The
primary reason why traders use different lot sizes is to balance risk versus reward. Lot sizes are
available in different presets and these are:
Micro lots
Brokers set micro lot sizes at 1,000 units of the currency being traded. On the MT4 & MT5
trading platforms, the volume would be 0.01 lots. These lot sizes are typically used by traders
who are just starting or who only trade with small amounts. Since this lot size is the smallest, it
also allows traders to be more precise with the trading volume they want to trade.
Mini lots
The next step up is a mini lot, which is a lot size of 10,000 units of currency. This is a popular
size for traders who want to trade large positions but don’t want to risk too much. Mini lots
provide good profit potential with a comfortable risk profile for most traders. Generally speaking,
once you are trading accounts funded in the thousands, stepping up to mini lots is a feasible
option.
Standard lots
Finally, there’s the standard lot size of 100,000 units of currency per contract. This lot size is
usually used by traders who want to max out their profit potential and are willing to take on more
financial risk. Typically, this lot size is used by larger traders with accounts funded in the tens of
thousands.
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Lot Size MT4/5 Volume Trade Value Pip Value
You do have the flexibility to trade any lot size that you like with step increments of 0.01 lots. So
long as you can meet the margin requirement to open the trade.
Margin is closely related to leverage, when trading using leverage, you need to deposit margin
as a form of collateral against the trade. Margin requirements are far less than the value of your
trade and this is what makes Forex trading affordable.
For example, a trader might want to buy $1,000 worth of currency. Using leverage, they would
only need $100 as margin to do so, which is ten times less as a margin requirement to open the
trade. In this example, the trader has leveraged their funds by a factor of 10 or 10:1.
Here are some examples of the relationship between leverage and margin and the interplay
between the trade or lot size and the corresponding pip value. The pip value is directly related to
the lot or trade size. The trade size, divided by the leverage, determines how much margin
would be required to open a trade with that lot size.
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Margin is essentially a good faith deposit required to open a trade that also acts as a form of
collateral.
For example, if a trader has $1,000 in their account and they are using 100:1 leverage, they
would be able to trade a lot size up to $100,000 worth of currency. The margin required to open
the trade would be 100 times less than the deal size.
Don't worry, the platform calculates everything for you in real time but this is good to know.
Here is an example:
If the price starts moving adversely against the direction of your trade, the unrealized loss will
start creating negative equity in your account, which will affect your margin levels.
Margin level is the amount of funds in a trading account that is used to maintain open positions
versus the available free balance. Often expressed as a percentage or ratio based on the
amount of accessible usable margin versus used margin. In other words, it is the ratio of equity
to margin, and is calculated in the following way:
Where equity is equal to the balance, plus or minus the unrealized profit or loss of all currently
open positions. Unrealized profit or loss becomes realized when trades are closed so the
amount is either credited to or debited from the balance.
If the unrealized loss of the open positions declines by $1,000, the used margin will stay the
same but the equity will become $9,000 and it will affect the margin level percentage.
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How to calculate margin level percentage
In this scenario, and using the formula above, the margin level will become:
When you have a margin level percentage of 100%, you will get a margin call. This acts as a
warning that your positions are at risk of being closed. If you ignore the warning, you run the risk
of heading towards a margin stop-out. If the margin level percent reaches 30% of the used
margin, the platform will automatically start closing the losing trades to prevent the total loss of
your account.
A key aspect of this is understanding the concept of free margin along with the margin level.
Where your margin level is the ratio or percentage of equity to margin used. Free margin is the
amount of money left that is not involved in any trade, you can use it to open more positions.
If your open positions are accruing unrealized profits, you will have more equity, so you will have
more free margin available as a result. If your positions are accruing unrealized losses, this will
decrease the equity and reduce the available free margin.
This is where you need to be cautious of overleveraging your account to reduce the probability
of losing your margin. Because the more positions that you open and the more the equity draws
down, the faster you will go to a margin call or a margin stop-out.
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If your positions continue to move against your prediction, you will suffer greater losses.
Possibly more than the funds deposited in your account and to prevent that, there are a couple
more fail-safes.
The first one is a margin stop-out, and the second one is negative balance protection. The latter
is a safety mechanism that prevents your trading account from going into a negative balance.
So you can not lose more than the amount you have deposited in your trading account.
The trading platform will automatically close your losing positions when your margin level
reaches 30% of the used margin before the negative balance protection kicks in.
This is what we refer to as a margin-stop out.
The percentage that needs to be reached before a margin stop-out takes place varies from one
broker to another. A higher margin stop-out level means that you have a smaller buffer to top up
your account. With a lower margin stop-out level, you have more time to deposit and bring your
margin levels back up.
With TIOmarkets, the margin stop-out level is 30% of the used margin. This also provides a
small buffer for price gaps or rapid price movements that may otherwise send the account
balance negative.
Although TIOmarkets provides negative balance protection for you, the point is that an account
shouldn’t get there.
You need to distinguish between what a margin call and margin stop-out is and how they work.
Not knowing about either can lead to significant financial losses and even more stress than is
necessary.
This is why experienced traders always keep an eye on their margin level. If you get a margin
call, take it as a warning that you are overleveraging your account. In other words, it’s best not
to allow your equity to fall below a margin level of 100%.
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If it does, you might want to consider closing out some of your position, topping up your
account, or risk a margin stop-out. Just keep in mind that if a margin stop-out occurs, your next
trade will be with significantly less volume unless you deposit more funds.
1. Trade execution
Forex brokers execute your trades in the interbank market. They provide you with a trading
platform where you can place orders to buy or sell currency pairs. Once you submit an order,
the broker ensures it's executed swiftly at the prevailing market price.
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1. Regulation and security
TIOmarkets is a global multi-regulated broker, ensuring compliance with the highest regulatory
standards. You can rest assured knowing that by making a deposit, you are doing so with a
legitimate group of companies and the security of your funds are one of our highest priorities.
Partnering with a reputable Forex broker like TIOmarkets is essential for unlocking your full
potential in the currency markets.
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Chapter 3: How to Read a Price Chart
Charts are like windows that allow you to view what is happening in the market. The better you
get at reading price charts, the better you will become at predicting and anticipating price
movements.
The most common charts used by traders are candlestick charts, they plot price over time. The
vertical axis on the chart represents the price of an asset or the exchange rate between two
currencies. Whereas the horizontal axis represents what the price did over time.
Currency price movements are segmented into time intervals and each interval has four data
points.
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Time intervals typically range from 1-minute periods to monthly periods. This means that you
can view the price chart where price data is segmented into one-minute intervals, 5-minute
intervals, hourly intervals, and so on, up to monthly intervals.
Each interval has an opening price, a closing price, the highest price, and the lowest price for
the interval.
So for example, if you are viewing the H1 chart, each interval represents one hour’s worth or
price action. The opening price is plotted at the beginning of each hour and for every hour as
long as the market is open.
The closing price is constantly moving throughout the hour until the end of the hour when it
becomes fixed. Then, when the interval ends, the candlestick becomes fixed in time
encapsulating and recording the four data points already mentioned.
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If you are viewing the 15M chart, each interval would represent 15 minutes’ worth of price
action. The opening price would be plotted at the beginning of the hour, 15 minutes past the
hour, 30 minutes past the hour, and 45 minutes past the hour.
Here is another example, if you are viewing the H1 chart, each interval represents one hour’s
worth or price action. The opening price is plotted at the beginning of each hour and for every
hour as long as the market is open. The closing price is constantly moving throughout the hour
until the end of the hour when it becomes fixed. The candlestick is drawn in real-time as the
price action unfolds for the interval.
Candlesticks blend together and this allows you to view the market with different perspectives or
with more or less detail. Changing the chart from the higher time frames to the lower ones
allows you to view what happened “inside” the candlestick.
When the closing price is higher than the opening price, the body of the candle is usually one
painted in one color. In this case, they are painted blue and these are also known as bullish
candlesticks.
When the closing price is lower than the opening price, the candles are usually painted in
another color. In this case, they are painted black and these are known as bearish candlesticks.
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Bullish candlesticks represent rising prices and uptrends while bearish candlesticks represent
falling prices and downtrends.
If the candlestick does not have an upper or lower wick, the opening or closing price was also
the highest or lowest price for that interval. If the candlestick doesn’t have a body, then it can be
the opening and closing prices are equal.
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How the wicks appear and where they appear on the chart can give you clues about various
things, such as price momentum and whether the buyers or sellers are in control. They can
suggest a pause in the trend or a potential reversal of the trend. Candlestick formations can
occur in many variations and where or how they appear on the chart can have different
meanings.
The point is that learning how to read a candlestick chart is like learning to read a different
language. Looking at one candlestick alone is like reading one word, however reading a series
of candlesticks together would be like reading a sentence. When you can string enough
sentences together to make paragraphs and chapters, you can start to understand the story that
is being told.
Blending candlesticks
Blending candlesticks involves using the open, high, low, and closing prices of several
candlesticks to create one. This is what allows you to view Forex price data with greater or
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lesser detail over various timeframes. But, it also allows you to see the hidden signals in the
market that may occur over a sequence of candlesticks, not in any particular time frame.
Let's start with a basic example, of how the different time frames are created on the charts:
This candlestick represents one day’s worth of price action. We can see that it is a bullish
candle and it has a body with wicks on the top and bottom of it. However, this candlestick omits
the details about how the candle was formed over the day.
There are 6 x 4-hour candlesticks for a trading day. If we take the opening price of the first
4-hour interval, the lowest price reached from any of the 6, 4 hourly candlesticks, the highest
price reached from any of the 6, 4 hourly candlesticks, and the closing price from the last one as
well, they can be combined to equal this one daily candlestick.
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The daily candlestick alone, tells us that the buyers were in control for the day. But the 6, 4
hourly candlesticks tell us that the sellers tried to pull the price back halfway through the day
and then got overwhelmed towards the close. The buyers finished strong.
There also does not seem to be any candlesticks here that might suggest that the buyers are
starting to get weak. However, further analysis can be done on a lower timeframe to determine
whether the buyers are likely to remain in control in the short term.
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Chapter 4: Analyzing the Forex Market
Now, we will move towards the methods used by Forex traders to help them make better
informed trading decisions.
At its core, fundamental analysis in Forex seeks to evaluate the intrinsic value of a currency
relative to other currencies. This evaluation involves assessing various economic indicators,
central bank policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment to gauge the strength or
weakness of a currency.
One of the key principles of fundamental analysis is the concept of supply and demand. In the
Forex market, supply and demand for a currency are influenced by a multitude of factors. For
instance, a country with a strong economy, low unemployment, and stable inflation is likely to
attract foreign investment, increasing demand for its currency. Conversely, a country facing
economic challenges or political instability may experience a decrease in demand for its
currency.
Economic indicators play a vital role in fundamental analysis. These indicators provide valuable
insights into the health of an economy and its potential impact on currency values. Some of the
key economic indicators that Forex traders closely monitor include:
2. Employment data
Employment figures, such as non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates, are crucial
indicators of a country's labor market health. Low unemployment rates and strong job creation
often lead to increased consumer spending and economic growth, positively impacting the value
of the currency.
3. Inflation rates
Inflation refers to the rate at which prices for goods and services rise over time. Central banks
closely monitor inflation and adjust monetary policy accordingly. High inflation erodes the
purchasing power of a currency, while low inflation may support currency strength.
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4. Interest rates
Central banks use interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher
interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, leading to currency appreciation, while lower
interest rates may have the opposite effect.
Central bank policies, including monetary policy decisions such as interest rate changes and
quantitative easing programs, can significantly impact currency values. Traders closely analyze
central bank statements and speeches by policymakers for clues about future monetary policy
direction.
In addition to economic indicators, geopolitical events, and central bank policies can also
influence currency prices. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, elections, and geopolitical
crises can create volatility in the Forex market as investors react to changing geopolitical
landscapes.
At its core, technical analysis operates on the principle that all available information is already
reflected in the price of an asset. This means that fundamental factors such as economic data,
geopolitical events, and market sentiment are already priced into the market, and thus, technical
analysts focus solely on analyzing price action to anticipate future price movements.
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2. Price moves in trends
One of the fundamental principles of technical analysis is that prices tend to move in uptrends,
downtrends, or sideways trends. By identifying these trends, you can align your positions with
the prevailing market direction, increasing their chances of success.
5. Technical indicators
Technical analysts often use a variety of indicators to supplement their analysis. These tools
include representations of price in the form of moving averages and oscillators like the Relative
Strength Index (RSI). They may help provide traders to easily identify price trends and entry and
exit points.
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Advantages of technical analysis
● Technical analysis can be applied to any financial market, including Forex, stocks,
commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
● It offers a systematic approach to trading, providing clear rules and guidelines for
entering and exiting trades.
● Technical analysis is well-suited for short to medium-term trading strategies, making it
popular among day traders and swing traders.
In summary, technical analysis is a powerful tool that allows you to analyze past price
movements and identify potential opportunities in the market. However, it's important to
remember that technical analysis is just one piece of the trading puzzle, and successful trading
often requires a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis, along with proper risk
management strategies and planning.
By combining pattern recognition with technical indicators and fundamental analysis, traders
can develop a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and enhance their trading
efficacy. Ultimately, mastering pattern recognition and interpretation empowers traders to
navigate the complexities of the financial markets with confidence and precision.
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Hammers
The hammer candlestick pattern can indicate potential market reversals. A bullish hammer,
characterized by a small body at the top with a long lower wick and minimal upper wick, signals
the possibility of a reversal after a downtrend. It suggests that despite selling pressure, buyers
were able to push the price back up, showcasing buying interest. Conversely, a bearish hammer
(or an inverted hammer) appears in an uptrend and can signal a forthcoming downtrend,
indicating that buying pressure was overcome by selling pressure by the end.
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Bullish engulfing candlestick
The bullish engulfing pattern, comprising two candlesticks, signals a potential reversal in a
downtrend. The first candle is smaller and usually bearish, followed by a larger bullish candle
that completely engulfs it. This suggests sellers are losing control to buyers. Confirmation of the
reversal occurs when the price surpasses the high of the engulfing candle.
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Bearish engulfing candlestick
The bearish engulfing pattern is a chart pattern signaling a potential reversal from an upward
trend to a downward one. It forms two consecutive candles: a small bullish candle followed by a
larger bearish one that engulfs the high and low price of the first. This suggests that sellers are
taking control of the market. The confirmation occurs when the price falls below the low of the
previous engulfed candle.
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Bullish marubozu candlestick
The Bullish Marubozu pattern features a long wide price range candlestick with no or small
wicks and indicates strong buying pressure. The opening price is near or equal to the low, and
the closing price is near or equal to the high, indicating high bullish momentum.
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Bearish marubozu pattern
The Bearish Marubozu pattern is characterized by a long wide-range candlestick with no upper
or lower shadows, indicating strong selling pressure. The opening price equals the high, and the
closing price equals the low for the period. This pattern signifies sellers dominating the market,
driving prices downwards forcefully, often indicating a continuation of the downtrend. For
example, on the chart above during a downtrend, the Bearish Marubozu suggests further price
declines are likely.
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Doji candlestick
The Doji candlestick, found in both uptrends and downtrends, features open and close prices
nearly equal, with top and bottom wicks resembling crosses or plus signs. While it's a relatively
neutral pattern, suggesting a possible trend reversal or market indecision, traders use it
alongside other indicators for insights.
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Symmetrical triangles
The symmetrical triangle pattern commonly forms during a price consolidation phase. It features
two converging trend lines connecting sequential peaks and troughs with roughly equal slopes.
A breakdown from the lower trendline may indicate a continuation of a bearish trend, while a
breakout from the upper trendline may suggest a continuation of a bullish trend. Traders
typically place stop-loss orders just below the breakout point and combine symmetrical triangles
with other indicators for effective analysis.
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Ascending triangles
The ascending triangle pattern, seen during uptrends, features higher lows and horizontal
resistance formed by connecting swing highs. It's considered a continuation pattern, with
breakouts typically in the same direction as the prior trend. Traders enter long positions if the
price breaks above the pattern's top and short positions if it breaks below the lower trendline.
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Descending triangle
The descending triangle pattern is similar to the pattern above, but appears during a downtrend.
It consists of an upper trendline connecting lower highs and a lower horizontal trendline acting
as support, signaling weakening demand. When the price breaks below the lower support, it
suggests further downward momentum. Traders often take short positions to profit from
anticipated price declines.
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Flag patterns
Flag patterns, both bullish and bearish, indicate a possible continuation of the trend too. They
resemble a flag on a pole, where the pole represents the initial price movement, and the flag
represents a consolidation phase before the trend continues in the direction of the pole. Traders
wait for the price to break out of the consolidation to confirm the trend's continuation and initiate
their trade.
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Double top
A double-top formation is a bearish chart pattern and one of the most reliable and commonly
occurring. It is characterized by two peaks of relatively equal height separated by a trough. It
signals a potential end of an up trend and a possible reversal from bullish to bearish. The
pattern forms when an asset fails to convincingly break above the previous high price. Traders
often enter short positions when the price breaks below the trough between the two peaks.
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Double bottom
A double bottom formation is a bullish chart pattern characterized by two troughs of relatively
equal lows separated by a peak. It signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The
pattern forms when an asset fails to break below the previous low, indicating that there is
potential support in the market. Traders look to enter long positions when the price breaks
above the peak between the two troughs.
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Head and shoulders and inverse head and shoulders
The head and shoulders formation is a bearish reversal pattern identified by three peaks: a
central peak (head) higher than two smaller peaks (shoulders) on either side. It signals a shift
from a bullish to a bearish sentiment. Traders typically enter short positions when the price
breaks below the "neckline," a support level connecting the lows of the shoulders. Confirmation
often involves increased volume during the breakdown. This pattern is widely watched due to its
reliability in predicting downward price movements.
The inverse head and shoulders formation is a bullish reversal pattern identified by three lows: a
central low (head) lower than two smaller lows (shoulders) on either side.
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Morning star & evening star
The morning star and evening star are candlestick patterns signaling potential reversals in price
trends.
The morning star occurs at the end of a downtrend. It consists of three candles: a long bearish
candle, followed by a small-bodied candle that gaps lower, and finally, a long bullish candle. This
indicates weakening selling pressure and increasing buying interest. It is often seen as a signal
to buy or close short positions.
The evening star occurs at the end of an uptrend. It consists of three candles: a long bullish
candle, followed by a small-bodied candle that gaps higher, and finally, a long bearish candle.
This indicates weakening buying pressure and increasing selling interest and it is often
interpreted as a signal to sell or close long positions.
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Tweezer tops and bottoms
Tweezer tops and bottoms indicate potential reversals in price direction. Tweezer tops form at
the end of an uptrend and consist of two candles with the same highs, signaling resistance.
They suggest a possible reversal from bullish to bearish momentum. Tweezer bottoms form at
the end of a downtrend and consist of two candles with the same lows, signaling support. These
indicate a potential reversal from bearish to bullish momentum.
Both patterns are stronger when they occur with higher trading volumes and are confirmed by
other technical indicators. Traders often use them as signals to enter or exit positions.
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Bullish and bearish dragonfly or gravestone doji’s
A bullish dragonfly doji forms when the opening and closing prices are at or near the high of the
candle. It indicates a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend and suggests that bulls
regained control after an initial bearish sentiment.
A bearish gravestone doj forms when the opening and closing prices are at or near the low of
the candle. It indicates a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend and suggests that
bears regained control after an initial bullish sentiment.
In the fast-paced Forex market, patterns such as flags, hammers and engulfing candlesticks can
form quickly, causing significant price movements that follow. Some traders rely on these
patterns to navigate the market's inherent volatility, using formations like the head and shoulders
and double tops and bottoms to predict potential trend reversals.
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In the realm of Forex trading, patterns provide insights into market sentiment, guiding traders
through the complexities of price movements. Crucially, the analysis of trading patterns on
multiple time frames can be even more effective.
News can swiftly alter market sentiment, making it essential for traders to adapt their strategies
in real time. This holistic approach, blending pattern recognition with other technical indicators
and fundamental analyses, equips traders with a nuanced view of the market, enhancing the
likelihood of successful trades and informed decision-making in the fast-paced, potentially high
stakes world of Forex trading.
Effective risk management is pivotal when trading with chart or candlestick patterns. Setting
stop losses is a fundamental strategy, helping to limit potential losses if the market moves
against your position. Determining appropriate entry and exit points is also crucial; these should
be based on the pattern's structure, ensuring trades are executed at points that offer a favorable
risk to reward ratio. For example, entering a trade as the price breaks out of a pattern's
resistance level and setting a stop loss just below a support level can protect against downside
risk while capitalizing on the pattern's predictive value.
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of analysis, they offer probabilities, not certainties. Over-reliance on patterns without considering
other market factors can lead to misjudgments and financial losses.
Market conditions, economic indicators, and global events can all impact price movements,
sometimes nullifying pattern predictions. Furthermore, the subjective interpretation of patterns
can vary among traders, leading to different trading decisions based on the same chart
formation.
A balanced approach that incorporates comprehensive risk management and considers both
technical and fundamental analysis is essential. Continuous education and adapting strategies
to evolving market conditions are crucial for mitigating risk and enhancing your profit potential.
Sentiment analysis involves analyzing various sources of information, such as news articles,
social media posts, traders' discussions on online forums and client position data from online
brokers. To help in determining whether the prevailing market sentiment is bullish (positive),
bearish (negative), or neutral.
One of the primary objectives of sentiment analysis in Forex trading is to identify shifts in market
sentiment before they are reflected in price movements. By understanding how traders are
positioned and feel about a currency pair or the market in general.
There are several methods used to conduct sentiment analysis in the Forex market:
1. Sentiment Indicators
Client sentiment is the collection of position data of buyers and sellers for any given symbol.
This data is then aggregated and presented in a way that shows the percentage of clients that
are long versus short on a broker’s trading platform.
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Client sentiment is something that not enough traders pay attention to. It is a useful tool for
analysis and it can give you an insight into the collective opinion of market participants.
You can use client sentiment to help you determine your directional bias or to find trading
opportunities.
However, it is important to know that the client sentiment data provided by any Forex broker or
trading platform is just a view of the client’s positions on that platform. Since Forex is
decentralized, it’s not possible to get a complete or 100% accurate view of client sentiment
across the whole market.
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3. News Sentiment
Economic news releases and geopolitical events can significantly impact market sentiment.
Traders often analyze news headlines, economic data, and central bank statements to gauge
the market's sentiment and anticipate potential market reactions.
It's important to note that sentiment analysis is just one component of a comprehensive Forex
trading strategy. While sentiment analysis can provide valuable insights into market sentiment, it
should be combined with technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and risk management
principles to make well-informed trading decisions.
Client sentiment can only be approximated and the larger the sample size of data, the more
accurate the view becomes. So at best, it is a cross-sectional view or a sample of what the
market participants are doing.
Such as:
So client sentiment and the indicators that represent this are the effect of any cause that
influences or motivates people to buy or sell. This buying and selling then affects asset prices.
So if you see that the majority of market participants are long a currency pair, you should look
for selling opportunities. Conversely, if you see that the majority of market participants are short
a currency pair, you should look for buying opportunities. Since most people lose money trading,
it could be to your benefit to do the opposite of what most people are doing.
As a general guide, when sentiment is in the 40% to 60% range, the directional bias can still be
considered neutral. When sentiment is in the 60 to 85% range, the directional bias is clearer and
you can expect the price to move in the opposite direction of the majority at some point. When
sentiment is over 85% long or short, then this can be considered extreme and the current price
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move might be close to exhaustion. It’s at these points when most traders will be stopped out or
close their positions. So be cautious when sentiment is at the extremes.
Remember, these are not absolutes, nothing is when it comes to Forex trading. Price moves in
a wave-like fashion and there will be times when prices move with the majority and times when
it will not.
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Chapter 5: Developing a Forex Trading Strategy
Your options for choosing the best Forex trading strategy for your needs are practically limitless.
As there are so many already available you can adopt or adapt. The key is to find one that you
trust, is simple to understand and fits well with your personality and trading goals.
Once you are clear on this, you can begin to look for the best Forex trading strategy for your
preferred style of trading. Here are some common trading styles to consider;
1. Scalping
Scalping is a style of trading where you enter and exit trades frequently and hold for very short
periods of time. Usually, for a few up to about an hour or after the market has moved just a few
pips. Scalping can be done manually or with the help of automated trading systems, but either
way, it requires quick thinking and fast execution.
The idea here is that you are taking advantage of small price movements to make small profits
over and over again, frequently throughout the trading day. Scalpers focus on the shortest time
frames to do their technical analysis. Like the 1-minute, 5-minute and 15-minute charts. This
style of trading is usually solely based on technical analysis and requires dedicated screen time.
One of the best Forex trading strategies for scalpers is to identify whether the intra-day
momentum is trending or ranging and trade accordingly.
2. Day trading
The main goal of day trading is to make profits from small, short-term price fluctuations that
occur within the same day. It is a trading style that requires a little more attention than scalping
strategies do.
However, trade durations can typically last for a few hours and you could potentially check on
the market just a few times a day. The best Forex trading strategy for day trading is to focus on
the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour timeframes. These can provide relative detail as well as the
bigger picture of market conditions respectively.
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3. Swing trading
This approach to trading typically involves trying to capture gains from the market by holding on
to trades for several days or weeks. Swing trading requires less attention to the markets than
the previous two styles do, making it ideal for people who don't have much time to monitor the
charts.
The ideal time frames for swing traders to monitor are the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts.
Swing traders primarily use technical analysis to determine entry and exit signals to try and
capitalize on short to medium-term price swings.
Swing trading can potentially generate decent returns on the risk and time taken to follow such
strategies but more patience is required if you want to adopt this style. As there are fewer
opportunities per week compared to the previous two styles, but this is compensated for from
the significance of the price moves.
4. Trend trading
Trend trading, also known as trend following, is a Forex trading strategy that attempts to capture
gains in momentum over longer periods. Essentially, a trader using this kind of trading strategy
will be "buying high and selling higher" in an uptrend. Or "selling low, and covering even lower"
in a downtrend.
It's not about picking the tops and bottoms. Instead, traders using trend trading or
trend-following strategies participate once a price trend has been established. With the
expectation that the trend will continue.
The rewards can potentially be substantial with this style of trading because the price moves
can be really big with the ability to scale into positions. Compared to other trading strategies,
trend trading provides opportunities to keep adding more lots for as long as the trend continues.
5. Range trading
Range trading is a very simple style of trading. With this type of strategy, traders seek to identify
and capitalize on currency pairs trading within price channels. In other words, the price
oscillates sideways with limited drift up or down.
Price ranges can be seen on all time frames, from short-term 1-minute charts to long-term
weekly and monthly charts. The best Forex trading strategy for range trading is to identify a
price range. Then look for opportunities to buy or sell at the range boundaries, after some kind
of confirmation that the price will bounce.
For instance, if a currency pair is trading within a 50-pip range and there are clear support or
resistance areas. You could simply sell whenever the price reacts at resistance and buy
whenever the price reacts at support.
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Markets usually remain range-bound for longer than they are trending. So this can be an
effective strategy to employ but it all depends on your perspective. Shorter-term trends exist
within longer-term ranges. What might seem like a trend on the 1-hour chart might be price
trading within a range on the weekly timeframe.
With that said, range trading also has its cons. When the price breaks out of range, losses can
mount up quickly. So it would then be best to learn how to identify this, cut losses quickly, and
switch to a trend trading strategy.
6. Carry trading
This strategy seeks to capitalize on the interest rate differential between two currencies within a
currency pair. It can be an independent strategy but it usually works better when combined with
the trend-following or swing trading strategies.
The way this works is by identifying nations whose central banks have high and low-interest
rates. Then trading those suitable currency pairs with a high-interest rate differential between
them. By going long the currency with the higher interest rate, you can potentially earn a
positive swap for carrying the position overnight to the next trading day.
There is exchange rate risk when carrying trading, as swaps can be negated by adverse price
movements.
7. News trading
News trading is a Forex trading strategy that utilizes news releases related to economic data,
and geopolitical events as the basis for trading decisions.
Forex traders who use a news trading strategy will closely monitor the economic calendar to
anticipate significant news releases that might impact currency prices. As well as keeping up to
date with the business and economic situation in countries or regions.
News, in this case, can encompass a wide range of issues from economic indicators (like GDP,
inflation, and unemployment rates) to central bank statements, changes in interest rates, and
geopolitical events.
The idea behind news trading is that significant news often propels currencies in the immediate
short-term. That can also cause fundamental shifts in exchange rates over time. Short-term
traders aim to capitalize on these sudden spikes in volatility. While longer-term traders position
themselves to capitalize on longer-term trends.
The best Forex trading strategies for trading news can potentially benefit from these sudden
spikes in volatility. But it depends on how they are executed. A lot of preparation and
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understanding of the economic calendar is required as well as trading currency pairs that could
have a significant reaction to the news.
Now that we have talked about 7 different trading strategies, you can choose to focus on one
particular style or another. Or you can use different strategies together to create something
more personalized.
The best Forex trading strategy will always be subjective. The right strategy for you may not be
the right strategy for someone else. The key here is to find a style that works well with your
personality and goals and helps you achieve them.
To craft a successful systematic trading strategy, you must carefully develop a trading plan and
regularly evaluate its performance. Understanding these elements and going through the steps
outlined below will better equip you to develop and evaluate your trading strategy.
1. Your method: this covers the analysis you will do and the rules for the buy and sell
signals.
2. Your money and risk management: this covers things like risk per trade, stop loss and
take profit criteria and risk-to-reward ratios.
3. Your psychology: this covers things like how you will hold yourself accountable to the
strategy, how to remain disciplined, consistent and minimize impulsive actions.
Here are some example questions you need to answer to create your trading strategy.
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● What currency pairs will you focus on or trade?
● What methods of analysis will you use, technical or fundamental?
● What is the criteria or rule for a buy signal?
● What is the criteria or rule for a sell signal?
● How much of your account balance will you risk per trade?
● What is the minimum risk to reward ratio you are willing to accept?
● How will you hold yourself accountable to your plan?
Write your trading strategy or plan down so it is clear and so you can refer back to it.
After trading your strategy for a specified time, you will be able to evaluate its trading signals
and performance with metrics such as;
● Number of trades placed: How many trading signals did your strategy generate.
● Profit and loss: How much did your strategy earn or lose over the evaluation period.
● Maximum drawdown: What was the largest drop in equity that was experienced at any
point during the evaluation period?
● Average win vs average loss: This measures the average gain per trade versus the
average loss per trade.
● Success rate: A measure for how many profitable trades your trading strategy
generated versus losing one.
● Return on investment (ROI): Establish the percentage gain or loss on your invested
capital.
With this information, you can evaluate your trading strategy and determine what needs to be
changed or done to help you achieve the trading goals outlined in the first step.
Remember, there are no guarantees with trading, just probabilistic outcomes. A carefully
developed and meticulously executed trading strategy or plan can increase the probability of
success.
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Tips for optimizing your trading strategy
As you journey further into the world of Forex trading, you'll quickly realize that success is about
continually learning, refining and adapting your strategy to the ever-changing market conditions.
Here are some tips to help you optimize your Forex trading strategy for maximum profit
potential:
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Chapter 6: Effective Risk Management
Forex trading involves the exchange of currencies with the objective of profiting from
fluctuations in their exchange rates. While this presents significant opportunities for profit, it also
exposes you to significant risks.
Without proper risk management measures in place, you can expose yourself to substantial
losses that can quickly deplete your trading capital. Emotional decision-making, lack of
discipline and planning, and overleveraging your account are common pitfalls that can increase
the risks and losses.
On the flip side, prioritizing risk management has several key benefits, including safeguarding
your capital, preserving profits, and sustaining long-term survival in the market. Additionally,
strong risk management practices help instill discipline, promote rational decision-making, and
help to mitigate the psychological stresses associated with trading.
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Key considerations when placing stop-loss orders
1. Defining risk tolerance: Before setting a stop-loss order, it's crucial to assess your risk
tolerance and investment objectives. Different traders have varying risk appetites, and knowing
how much you are comfortable with losing is key to deciding where to put stop-loss orders. The
Forex trading community usually suggests risking between 1-3% of your account balance on
any one trade idea. Ultimately, your financial situation, trading goals and strategy will determine
what you can comfortably afford.
2. Technical analysis: This can help find important support and resistance levels, as well as
trends in price movements to identify where to place your stop-loss. Stop-loss orders can be
placed slightly below support or resistance levels or at areas that would invalidate a chart
pattern. Providing a buffer against any adverse price movements.
4. Time frame: The time frame you are analyzing influences the placement of stop-loss orders.
Price ranges are naturally higher on the higher time frames and lower on the lower time frames.
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Understanding take-profit orders
In addition to reducing risk, take-profit orders are used to take profits at predetermined price
levels. These orders also automatically trigger a sell order when the asset reaches a specified
price target. Allowing you to capitalize on favorable price movements and secure potential gains
without being present on the trading platform.
1. Setting realistic targets: When setting take-profit orders, it's essential to establish realistic
profit targets based on thorough analysis and market conditions. Finding a balance between
aiming high and being practical helps ensure your profit plans match your investment goals.
2. Technical analysis: Similar to stop-loss placement, technical analysis can guide the setting
of take-profit orders. Take-profit orders can be placed slightly below or at support and resistance
levels or at areas that would indicate a chart pattern's completion.
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Risk management tips for Forex trading
Most traders’ time and attention is spent looking for the best entry signals. They want to know
when to buy and sell and what indicators will help them achieve a higher success rate.
Although that is all well and good, you should know by now that this is just a small part of
trading. A high success rate alone doesn’t necessarily mean that you will be a consistently
profitable trader. In fact, you can be a profitable trader with a low success rate but a high
enough average profit to loss ratio.
This is one reason why risk management is so important, the lack of it can turn an otherwise
successful strategy into a losing one. So here is a list of top risk management tips you can
consider and apply to your trading strategy.
A demo can help you to learn how to manage risk but it does have its limitations. You don’t have
any skin in the game.
The difference between demo and live trading is all psychological. The emotions of fear and
greed are absent with the former and more amplified with the latter. When you have some skin
in the game, the emotions just mentioned become huge motivators that can work to your
detriment.
With that said, at some point, this psychological gap between trading with virtual and real money
must be bridged.
But unlike pursuing other vocations, you don’t necessarily need to spend money on a course to
learn how to trade. Although that might help, it isn’t really necessary as you should have enough
knowledge to get started with this book.
In trading the best lessons are the ones you learn by yourself and cost you money but you
should never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
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3. Make capital preservation your priority
You will encounter a string of losing trades from time to time, that’s trading but the financial loss
should never be enough to completely put you out of business. So protect your capital first and
try to make it grow second. The objective here is to keep risk manageable, drawdowns to a
minimum and refrain from over trading.
So consider capitalizing your account adequately enough to give yourself the flexibility to better
manage risk and trade appropriate lot sizes that support your trading goals.
Rather than making sudden or drastic changes to your lot size from one trade to the next. Scale
up or down in smaller increments to better manage the risk.
Hedging on the either hand is another concept used for risk management that involves trading
in more correlated currency pairs. The goal of hedging is to limit the risk of loss by taking an
opposite trade in the same or another highly correlated currency pair or asset class. So the
effect this has is when one trade moves further into a losing position, the other trade can move
further into a profitable position to offset losses.
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The problem with this is that it becomes psychologically more difficult to accept a larger loss
later and hanging on can create an emotional attachment to the trade. It is a downward spiral,
hoping that the price will come back to get out of the market, at least at break even.That might
happen but if you find yourself in this situation, you are now assuming risk without any potential
for reward.
It is not enough to know how to make money trading to be a successful trader. You must also
know what leads to losses in the market and avoid engaging in those activities or behaviors.
This can include revenge trading, chasing prices from the fear of missing out, and generally just
being proactive in the market. So, when in doubt, stay out and let the opportunities come to you.
The same principle applies to scaling out of positions, as the price moves in your favor, you can
close portions of your position at incrementally better prices. The benefit of doing this allows you
to take profits to minimize the risk of a sudden trend reversal instead of watching all your profits
vanish.
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Chapter 7: Cultivating a Winning Trader's Mindset
To make progress and get good at trading, you will need to cultivate a winning mindset and
identify and eliminate the kind of psychology that will hinder you. We all make mistakes, but
owning and learning from them is how we become better and grow, as people and as traders.
For example, the most common mistake is thinking of your trading as a by-product rather than a
process and confusing the results with the process. When you make money, you tend to think
you’re a good trader and when you lose money, you might think you’re a bad trader. That is not
the case, because you can follow the process correctly and still lose money due to the random
nature of trading results.
The extent to which mistakes can be avoided, or their impact reduced, and superseding this
with a winners mindset depends on you. It begins by becoming aware of them and becoming
self aware, then taking steps to avoid or repeating them in the future.
Here are common mistakes traders make that are related to mindset:
Impatience leads traders to force trades based on their predictions rather than what is, in the
present moment. If you want to buy because you think the asset will go up, go ahead. But if you
are looking for any excuse to buy or sell, you are probably over-trading and don’t have a plan.
An example of when this mindset might prevail would be because you have bills to pay, or a
new flashy toy you want to buy or simply because you think that you should be making money
from trading every day.
Overconfidence is the tendency for traders to convince themselves that the market will turn
around. Overconfidence leads traders to misread the data available at any given time or think
they know it all and assume that their information is better than it is. You can only make an
educated guess and then let the market do its thing. Be patient, and remain humble.
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human behavior. They’re so strong that they can cause us to act against our best interests and
against what we believe to be true.
It may seem contradictory that emotions, which we typically think of as feelings, could cause us
to act against our better judgment. But that’s exactly what starts to happen whenever you trade
and risk your money. So know that trading based on emotion will consistently lead to the same
unsatisfactory results. The way to avoid this is to create a trading plan or strategy and stick to it
by being process-oriented.
But there can be a problem with this; it means that we might see patterns where they do not
exist. Confirmation bias means that we tend to interpret new information as further confirmation
of our existing views. When trading based on emotion too, we will even ignore information that
contradicts our views. You need to be self-aware of your trading psychology and try to give
equal weight to supporting and contradictory evidence about our trading ideas.
You must focus on the present rather than the past when making your trading decisions. This
implies that you should only evaluate a trade on its current merits, not on what you have
previously done to incur the loss or what you would like it to be. Usually, this can be overcome
just by being patient and delaying the gratification of a recovery until a later date.
The problem with protecting your trade too soon is that you may be giving up some gains later
on, just to avoid a loss. But since we have convinced ourselves that we are protecting our
capital, it’s easy to justify the action.
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Not that protecting our capital is a bad idea in trading, it’s a good idea, but trying to do it
prematurely has its longer-term consequences. If you bail out every time the market moves
against you, you are going to miss some of the biggest opportunities available.
The best way to avoid losses isn’t to try not to lose; because that is inevitable in trading. It is to
ensure that when you do lose, it won’t matter that much to you.
When trading on a demo, you tend to develop overconfidence in your skills because you are
practicing without risk. Trading with virtual funds that are larger than what you may intend to go
live with also creates a false sense of reality.
When you have nothing to lose, you can easily hold on to losing trades longer than you should.
When you have a significant balance to absorb large drawdowns, you want to hope the market
turns around. When you have a large virtual balance and see the results of that, you might
create unrealistic expectations.
Don’t stay on a demo account for too long, keep it realistic by trading amounts similar to what
you intend to deposit. Don’t let it become a crutch to avoid taking any risks at all.
Blaming other people or your broker for your failure or losses is a great way to avoid taking
responsibility for them and the more you blame others, the less control you have over your
destiny.
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The point here is that blaming others for your failures or decision making robs you of growth,
progress and success so begin by taking responsibility and putting in the necessary effort.
Revenge trading or the fear of missing out is a problem that almost every trader suffers from at
some point in their career. It is normal for any trader to feel this way but it must be checked
before it ruins your trading account.
Be patient and let your trades develop, if they turn out to be a loss, then wait for the next
opportunity. Don’t make the mistake of over-trading and trying to recover from the losses
immediately. Instead, refer back to your plan, assess whether you followed it and update your
trading journal. This is why having a trading plan is so important.
The key to long-term success in the markets is learning how to avoid making common mistakes
and cultivating a winning traders mindset. Many traders make the same mistakes over and over
again, which prevents them from moving forward and reaching their full potential.
Develop discipline
This is your foundation, if it could be summarized to one word, it would be; discipline. It
encompasses the ability to control emotions, stick to a trading plan or strategy, and execute
without being swayed by impulsive behavior.
Here's how you can build and maintain discipline in your trading journey:
1. Establishing clear trading objectives: Define your goals, risk tolerance, and trading style
before entering the market. Having a clear understanding of what you aim to achieve helps in
maintaining focus and discipline during volatile market conditions.
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2. Create and follow a trading plan: Develop a trading plan that outlines your entry and exit
rules and risk management techniques. Sticking to the plan, even when you feel tempted to
change course, helps you stay disciplined and consistent.
3. Embrace risk and manage it: Managing risks well is crucial for staying disciplined in trading.
Set predefined risk limits for each trade and avoid over-exposing or over-leveraging your capital.
Prioritize capital preservation, this will allow you to stay in the markets for a long time and lessen
the impact when you face losses.
4. Master emotional control: Emotions such as fear, greed, and impatience can cloud
judgment and lead to irrational decision-making. Practice mindfulness techniques, become
self-aware and learn to detach emotions from trading outcomes.
Develop patience
Patience is not merely a virtue or the ability to wait, it's a strategic necessity to maintain
composure and resilience amidst market fluctuations and uncertainty. Cultivating patience is a
cornerstone of successful trading; it allows you to focus on your long-term strategy and goals,
ensuring decisions are made with clarity and precision.
Here's some practical things you can do to build and maintain patience when trading:
1. Waiting for high probability setups: Avoid the urge to chase every market movement or
trade opportunity. Practice patience and wait for setups that align with your trading strategy and
offer favorable risk-reward ratios. Good trades usually need time to happen.
2. Allow trades to unfold: Once a trade is initiated, exercise patience and refrain from
micromanaging every market fluctuation. Set realistic profit targets and stop-loss levels, and
allow the trade to develop according to your plan without giving in to sudden decisions.
3. Learn from mistakes: Patience in trading also involves the willingness to learn from
mistakes and setbacks. Instead of dwelling on losses or missed opportunities, view them as
valuable learning experiences that contribute to your growth as a trader. Adopt a long-term
perspective and focus on continuous improvement.
Building discipline and patience is an ongoing process that requires dedication, self-awareness,
and a commitment to continuous improvement. By integrating these qualities into your trading
mindset, you lay the groundwork for maximizing your profit potential from Forex trading.
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Successful traders have;
Stay disciplined, exercise patience, and let your mindset propel you towards your trading goals
with confidence and resilience.
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Chapter 8: Navigating High Impact Economic Events
You can think of economic indicators as your guide or sign-posts to help you navigate through
the financial markets. These indicators, which range from employment figures to inflation rates,
offer valuable insights into the health economies and can help you determine whether a
currency might strengthen or weaken relative to another. When economic conditions are strong,
it should have a positive effect on the national currency. Conversely, when economic conditions
are weak, it should have a negative effect.
Sowe will outline 7 economic indicators every trader should know about, explore what they are
and why you should pay attention to them.
You can keep track of these economic indicators, with the economic calendar on our website.
When central banks raise interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. This can lead to
reduced consumer spending, slower business investment, and a cooling of economic activity.
Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, stimulating
spending and investment and potentially boosting economic activity.
Announcements by central banks for interest rate decisions often trigger significant market
volatility, as it is probably the most important indicator of economic health. You should closely
analyze central bank statements and economic data leading up to these decisions to anticipate
potential outcomes. Positive surprises, such as unexpected interest rate hikes, can cause sharp
rallies in the currency, while disappointments may lead to rapid declines. Therefore,
understanding interest rates and their implications is essential for navigating the foreign
exchange market.
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2. Central bank policy statements
The second economic indicator you should know is policy statements from central banks, as this
is directly related to the previous. These are official communications issued by central banks
alongside their interest rate decisions. These statements offer valuable insights into the central
bank's monetary policy outlook, economic assessments, and future policy actions. They serve
as crucial documents for understanding the reasoning behind central bank decisions and their
implications for the economy. Policy statements influence the financial markets and are closely
looked at by traders for several reasons:
Forward guidance
Central banks may use policy statements to provide forward guidance on their policy intentions,
offering markets insights into the expected potential trajectory of interest rates and monetary
policy measures. You should interpret this guidance to assess the likely path of future policy
actions and adjust your trading positions or strategy accordingly to capitalize on potential market
movements.
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3. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,
and is usually announced on the first Friday of each month. The NFP report offers a snapshot of
employment dynamics and an overall assessment of economic health. It excludes farm workers,
government employees, private household employees, and employees of non-profit
organizations, giving a focused analysis of the nation's labor market health.
The NFP report holds significance for you as a trader because of its great impact on market
sentiment and US economic outlook. The USD is a major currency and currently the world’s
reserve currency. All other currencies in the majors category are paired with the USD, so you
should closely monitor NFP releases and related employment data. Here’s why
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Market reaction to NFP releases
The NFP data often triggers high market volatility, particularly in currency, equity, and bond
markets. Positive surprises, such as stronger-than-expected job creation, may lead to rallies in
the US Dollar. Conversely, weaker-than-expected NFP figures can drive the value of the US
Dollar down.
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Implications for monetary policy
Central banks closely monitor GDP data when putting together monetary policy decisions.
Strong GDP growth may cause central banks to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates
to curb inflationary pressures. In contrast, sluggish GDP growth may prompt accommodative
measures, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, to stimulate economic activity. You
should carefully analyze GDP reports to anticipate potential shifts in monetary policy, which can
have significant implications for currency values.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) provide insights into the rate at
which prices for goods and services are rising within an economy. Inflation is a critical measure
of an economy's health. Sustained periods of high inflation can destroy consumer purchasing
power, reduce consumer spending, and hamper economic growth. Conversely, very low inflation
or deflation may signal weak demand and economic stagnation. By monitoring inflation
indicators, you can assess the overall health of an economy and adjust your trading strategies
accordingly.
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CPI: Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by
urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. You should closely monitor CPI data to
assess the level of inflationary pressures within an economy. Rising CPI figures indicate
increasing consumer prices, potentially signaling higher inflation rates and impacting consumer
spending patterns.
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6. Retail sales
This is an important macroeconomic measure, tracking consumer demand for finished goods.
These figures encompass purchases of both durable and non-durable goods across various
retail sectors. Retail sales provide a snapshot of the economy's health and its projected
trajectory and indicate whether the economy is on the path to expansion or contraction. One of
the key strengths of retail sales data is its timeliness. As it is released monthly, the data is only a
few weeks old, providing you with up-to-date information about economic health.
Market reaction
Healthy retail sales figures often create positive movements in currency and equity markets, as
they signal a strong economy and higher earnings potential for retail companies. Conversely, a
decline in retail sales may prompt investors to reconsider their positions and strategies,
potentially affecting stock markets.
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7. Political and geopolitical events
The last of these indicators are not not exactly economic but they can significantly impact
economic indicators, these are political and geopolitical events. These events include a wide
range of occurrences, including elections, government policies, diplomatic relations,
international conflicts, and geopolitical tensions. Political and geopolitical events are significant
drivers of Forex market movements for several key reasons:
Risk appetite
Geopolitical tensions, conflicts, or crises often heighten risk aversion among investors, leading
them to seek assets that have a reputation of being safe-havens. Such as gold, the Swiss
Franc, or the Japanese Yen. Consequently, currencies of countries perceived as safe-havens
may appreciate in times of geopolitical turmoil, while currencies of nations directly involved in
conflicts or facing instability may weaken.
Policy implications
Political and geopolitical events can influence government policies, trade agreements, and
international relations, all of which have implications for currency values. You should closely
monitor policy announcements, diplomatic negotiations, and geopolitical developments to
anticipate potential shifts in economic policies and their impact on currency markets.
Market reactions
Political and geopolitical events frequently trigger immediate reactions in the Forex market.
News of election outcomes, policy changes, or geopolitical escalations can lead to sharp
movements in currency prices. Political and geopolitical events serve as crucial catalysts for
Forex market volatility, shaping investor sentiment, risk appetite, and currency valuations. You
must remain on the lookout and stay informed about evolving geopolitical dynamics and their
potential implications for currency markets to help you make well-informed trading decisions.
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releases should be tailored to capitalize on the heightened volatility and rapid price movements
that often accompany such events.
1. Breakout trading:
● Breakout trading involves entering positions when the price breaks out of a predefined
range or consolidation pattern.
● Identify key support and resistance levels before the news release. When the news
triggers a breakout above resistance or below support, enter a trade in the direction of
the breakout.
● Use stop orders to manage risk and take profits at predefined target levels.
3. Quick scalping:
● Scalping involves making multiple short-term trades to capitalize on small price
movements.
● Place trades immediately after the news release, aiming to capture short-term price
fluctuations.
● Use tight stop-loss orders to manage risk and take quick profits.
1. Preparing a trading plan: Successful trading during news releases starts with careful
planning. Develop a clear trading plan outlining your entry and exit criteria, risk management
strategies, and potential scenarios based on different outcomes of the news release. Having a
well-defined plan in place helps you maintain discipline and avoid making impulsive decisions in
the heat of the moment.
2. Identifying high-impact events: Not all news releases are created equal. Some events
carry more weight in the eyes of the market and are likely to cause stronger reactions from
traders than others. Focus on identifying high-impact economic indicators and central bank
announcements that have a history of moving markets. Tools such as the economic calendar
can help you stay informed about upcoming events and their expected significance.
3. Using limit orders and stop losses: Given the rapid and unpredictable nature of price
movements during news releases, it's essential to use limit orders and stop losses to manage
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your trades effectively. Placing limit orders allows you to specify your desired entry and exit
prices in advance, helping you minimize slippage.
4. Monitoring price action and adjusting accordingly: During the initial moments following a
news release, closely monitor price action and market dynamics to assess the validity of your
trading thesis. If the market's reaction deviates from your expectations or if new information
emerges, be prepared to adjust your trading strategy accordingly. Flexibility and adaptability are
key attributes of successful traders in fast-moving environments.
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Chapter 9: Practical Tips for Enhancing Your Forex Trading
As you know, you can trade Forex 24 hours every day, from Sunday 10 pm to Friday 10 pm
GMT. The trading day is also divided into three major sessions, these are the Asian session, the
European or London session, and the US session, which all have different trading
characteristics. Understanding these sessions is essential because they set the stage for when
the market is most active.
● The Asian session starts from 10 pm GMT, the trading volume is usually not as high
during this session as it is in other sessions.
● Then we have the European or London session, which starts from 7 am, until 5 pm GMT.
This is a crucial session with substantial trading activity.
● Then finally, the US session which starts from 1 pm to 11 pm GMT. This session is
known for fast-paced movements and significant market activity too.
Now, let's talk about those times when the sessions overlap, these are the times when the
trading sessions are open simultaneously.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Asian session
US session
First, you have the European and Asian sessions overlap, it's a short but powerful overlap,
which usually brings in the first significant burst of liquidity and price volatility for the trading day.
Then we have the European session overlapping with the US session, which is a more
extended overlap and things get even more exciting here. It is generally considered to be the
most important overlap because during these hours, overall liquidity in the Forex market is at its
highest.
During the session overlapping times, more people are coming online, bringing liquidity to the
market. More liquidity, generally means more volume and more volume, usually means more
volatility. As traders, that's what we are interested in because whenever we enter trades, we
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want the price to move (in our favor), by a lot. So it makes sense to optimize our trading
strategies around these times.
Each of these sessions and their overlapping hours will present different variables that can
affect the instruments being traded during those hours.
For example, the Great British Pound versus the USD and the EURO vs the USD, will likely
experience the most volatility during the overlap of the European and US sessions. The
Australian Dollar versus the Japanese Yen, will likely be most active during the Asian session.
Another variable to consider is liquidity, which is related to the amount of volume or currency
being transacted. The more volume being exchanged, the greater the market “depth” is said to
be and means that you can exchange large volumes of currency effectively. Allowing you to
enter and exit the market with ease.
Liquidity affects your ability to execute and low levels of liquidity can often lead to difficulty
entering or exiting the market without experiencing price slippage. So as a general rule of
thumb, it's best to trade when liquidity is high, especially if you trade in large lot sizes.
Times when liquidity is low are typically during the Asian session or when the US session is
approaching its close. Although the market is still open, the hours leading to and shortly after
the market rolls over to the next trading, suffer from low levels of liquidity.
Other times to consider and be aware of that could cause low levels of liquidity is on bank or
national holidays. You want to look out for national holidays in the US, Europe, the UK, Japan,
and Australia because on these days, liquidity could be a problem. Especially if two or more of
these countries have holidays on the same day.
However, there are some practical things you can start doing today that will set you on the path
to becoming a better trader. Let’s outline 9 ways for anyone to take the next step and learn how
to become a better trader.
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Further to that, self-education is still a very effective way to improve yourself as a trader. For
most people, this is the only or most obvious route. The good thing about this is that there is a
lot of free trading education available on our website, including this ebook and a video trading
course.
With that being said, the more sources you learn from the more confused you may get. So once
you have finished reading this ebook, you should start, because you will learn a whole lot more
by doing and gaining experience.
The human brain can only absorb so much information at one time, and trying to keep track of
more than 2 or 3 instruments can increase the chances of mistakes. By following fewer
instruments or markets, you will put more emphasis on them and develop strategies that are
more effective or suitable to those particular instruments.
Trading without a plan exposes you to a haphazard approach, trading is not about random
guesses or tips from friends; it is about discipline and following a well-defined strategy. Before
you get started, you must define your entry and exit signals clearly and have a protocol to define
and manage risk.
It’s best to keep it as simple as possible, remove ambiguity, and have the discipline to stick with
the plan.
To become a better trader, you must learn to manage your emotions. The way to do that is to
approach trading more methodically and be more systematic. This includes having a
well-defined trading plan as already mentioned but to think of your trading activities as a
business that requires proper planning, execution, management, and review processes in place.
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A great way to implement these is by keeping a trading journal. Many traders may appreciate
the importance of this but seldom do it. However, it can be very helpful if used correctly because
it can help you analyze your trades.
It may give you some insight on how to better execute your entries and exits. Or it might show
that there’s nothing wrong with your entries but you exit too soon, leaving a significant amount of
pips on the table. The whole point of doing this is to learn from your mistakes and optimize your
strategy.
You may have noticed that most, if not all of these are internal factors and that is all you can
control, your interaction and reaction to the market. With enough practice and understanding of
both the markets and yourself, you can become a better trader.
The basic premise behind money management is that a trader should never risk more than what
would be considered appropriate for their account size. Other factors include not trading lot
sizes that are too large for the account and the volatility of the instrument. Also, considerations
should be made about the correct placement of a stop loss. It should be in a place where it is
highly unlikely to get triggered.
Becoming a better trader is not about being right more often, although that is better. It’s about
being able to make the most of your winning trades and cutting losers quickly. To become a
better trader, you need to identify trading opportunities and put the probabilities of success in
your favor.
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8. Stay informed about current economic or political events
It’s essential to keep up with current events and to understand the story behind the headlines
and price movements. It helps you assess the state of the economy and what is happening in
the world. Staying informed allows you to manage risk and identify trading opportunities.
The economic calendar on our website is a good place to start: this is updated in advance with
upcoming events and highlights the time they are scheduled to be released as well as the actual
data. Our economic calendar is an indispensable tool for your fundamental analysis, so it would
be a good idea to form a habit of using it.
9. Practice
When you’ve developed your strategy, one of the best ways to test it is by practicing with a
demo account or by going live with small lot sizes. In either case, the idea is to reduce the
likelihood of making expensive mistakes early on and embark on your trading journal.
Demo accounts are completely free and will give you a feel for the market without you having to
take any risks. Trading with micro lots lets you experience the psychological aspect of trading,
without having to risk much. The former is better than the latter if you want to progress faster.
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It’s time to get started
Congratulations for making it this far! But you have only closed the first chapter on this journey.
By completing this book, you've gained insights into the mechanics of Forex trading, learned
how to analyze the market, learned crucial risk management skills and what it takes to become
a better trader. Additionally, you should know how to put together a trading strategy or plan, as
well as the importance of executing it with discipline.
However, success in Forex trading does not just come from knowledge, but from taking action
and applying that knowledge correctly. Now you need to implement what you've learned.
So seize the opportunity and take the next step in your Forex trading journey, by registering your
account to start trading with TIOmarkets.
Happy trading!
Trading is risky
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to
leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can
afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Never deposit more than you are prepared to
lose.
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