9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 1 of 20
Dispersion modelling is needed to assess a population's risk of exposure to air pollution from local sources. A dispersion model
describes the transport and diffusion of pollutants in the atmosphere. An example of the use of dispersion modelling is the
assessment of the effect of a power station plume on a nearby town. Worst-case concentrations of pollutants can be estimated in
various parts of the town, the general effect of the main chemical transformations can be conservatively estimated and an
assessment of the population risk to exposure can be made. Common assumptions in simple dispersion models include very simple
meteorology, simple representation of the effects of terrain and no chemical transformations.
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 2 of 20
Types of dispersion models include Gaussian plume, puff and Lagrangian models. Regulatory models are of the former type. In this
presentation, these models, the data requirements and outputs from some commonly used Australian models will be briefly
described.
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 3 of 20
Scales of modelling and applications
urban area (whole airshed - see the presentation on Urban-Scale Air Pollution Models) versus local point source
study (assess the effect of a power station plume on a nearby town)
dispersion models - modelling a local source or sources with the prime interest in the region close to the source (near
source ground level concentrations)
statistical output rather than specific time and place
Assumptions: simple meteorology, no complex terrain, no chemical transformations
common assumptions include simple met, simple representation of the effects of terrain (no complex terrain) and no
chemical transformations
often their underlying assumptions are not valid at larger scales; sea-breezes, valley flows, recirculation of air
(polluted/clean)
Fast turnaround - regulatory work
run relatively quickly on PC and are often used for regulatory work
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 4 of 20
Example of use of dispersion modelling is assessment of the effect of a power station on a nearby town.
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 5 of 20
Types of (Australian) dispersion models
include Gaussian plume, puff and Lagrangian
Most widely used models for predicting the impact of relatively non-reactive gases, like SO2, released from
stacks, are based on Gaussian diffusion. Spread of a plume in vertical and horizontal is assumed to occur by
simple diffusion along the direction of the mean wind. They have been widely used because they don’t need
to be run on a supercomputer. (Regulatory models often lag current research because of delays in validating
new approaches.)
AUSPLUME (Gaussian regulatory model)
DISPMOD (regulatory model, Gaussian plume and shoreline fumigation)
AUSPUFF (Gaussian puff model)
LADM (Lagrangian model)
TAPM (Lagrangian and Eulerian - has features like relatively fast turnaround)
Slide 6 of 20
AUSPLUME - Australian regulatory model
Gaussian plume dispersion model
based on the premise that cross-sections through elevated plumes from point sources have Gaussian
distribution of concentration
instantaneous snap-shots of plumes generally not consistent with this image but experiments show if
averaged over long enough time or many experiments, mean distribution is close to Gaussian.
Dispersion coefficients. Most are functions of stability and distance downwind from the source
predicts ground-level concentrations (GLCs) from one or more sources - stacks, area, volume
generally used area of up to few 100s of square kms around sources, user chooses where to calculate ground level
concentrations (receptor points) - doesn’t have to be a grid.
simplifying assumptions (limit where it should be applied)
simple meteorology (no horizontal variation) to transport and diffuse pollutants. Winds same at every receptor
point for a particular hour with the pollutant transported in ‘straight lines’ from source to receptor. Winds and
diffusion are independent from one hour to next. No modelling of recirculation due to sea-breeze etc.
flat, near flat terrain
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
valid where terrain is flat or near flat and where there is little horizontal variation in the winds (eg. Not
mountainous regions, coastal regions, etc.) often used in these sits
Doesn’t allow for chemical transformations
Slide 7 of 20
Plume cross-section, showing how AUSPLUME models the plume
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 8 of 20
DISPMOD
Gaussian plume dispersion model but also capable of simulating shoreline fumigation
plume released at a coastal location may be in stable air above the thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL)
and subject to little vertical dispersion
TIBL grows with distance inland, as plume travels inland it may intersect the TIBL and fumigate
DISPMOD models ground-level concentrations resulting from fumigation and dispersion
The most significant feature of the model is its capability to simulate shoreline fumigation
As for AUSPLUME, it is not capable of handling complex wind flows or recirculating pollutants
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 9 of 20
Shoreline fumigation modelled by DISPMOD
plume released at a coastal location may be in stable air above the thermal internal boundary layer and subject to little
vertical dispersion
TIBL grows with distance inland, as plume travels inland it may intersect the TIBL and fumigate
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Slide 10 of 20
AUSPUFF
non-steady-state Gaussian puff model - was designed to become a regulatory model
unlike AUSPLUME, it can be used in conditions with complex meteorology - requires 3-D met data set (diagnostically
(AUSMET), or prognostically from CSUMM model supplied with AUSPUFF)
would take a very long time to run the meteorological program CSUMM for a year
in situations where winds vary with time but not horizontally, it can be used with a simpler AUSPLUME met file. Then
AUSPUFF can represent recirculation of pollutants by continuously releasing and following puffs
can handle simple chemical transformation explicitly
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 11 of 20
Gaussian Models
no chemical transformations (AUSPUFF does include a simple, explicit chemical transformation algorithm)
if major chemical processes are important (e.g. oxidation of NO by O3 to form NO2), these may be estimated crudely
after a model run
Building wakes
some of these models include this - can be important for local problems
e.g. use this information when assessing impacts at proposed sites to increase stack height or move stacks away
from buildings
need general information about set-up of proposed site
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 12 of 20
AUSPLUME - Australian regulatory model
input data requirements
meteorology
meteorology - simple hourly file (create for yourself from observations), or more complex met file - from a prognostic
or diagnostic meteorological model.
hourly record surface winds and temperatures
hourly record mixing height, stability class (surface radiation, cloud)
there are standard AUSPLUME meteorological files (worst-case meteorology)
emission data
emission rates for pollutants of interest with time variation - get this info from source, EPAs, literature, etc
data about sources, eg. height, diameter, exit velocity and temperature if buoyant plume
variation - often emission info is one of the largest sources of error (it may not matter what type of model you use)
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 13 of 20
Simple Gaussian models are often used to predict glcs over periods of up to a year or two
Models designed to output various quantities that are generally required for comparison with air quality standards
averaged concentrations of pollutants over specified time periods
highest glc for a pollutant over a region or at certain locations within the region
statistical info - ‘x’ percentile (x% of the values are below the ‘x’ percentile)
Models not used to predict glc info at a specific time and place - average quantities
can predict ensemble average concentration but not the transient peaks caused by downdrafts in thermal convection
eddies
To use output for population exposure work it is important to be mindful of the model assumptions, and consider the
circumstances under which the models are being applied (meteorology and region)
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 14 of 20
Gaussian models- general output
DISPMOD
SO2 - 1 year run
highest 25 hourly values cf obs for Stockton air quality station coded by source
Newcastle (Kooragang Island work 1992)
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 15 of 20
Lagrangian models
approximate emissions as particles or puffs of mass and follow the particles as they are transported and effected by
meteorology
useful describing dispersion v. close to source or in complex topography. Re-circulation, sea breeze, valley flows, etc.
meteorology may be run earlier or in parallel
sophisticated versions of these models may become computer intensive as number of sources increases - can restrict their
usage
may contain chemistry formulations, generally only first-order chemistry
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 16 of 20
LADM - CSIRO Atmospheric Research model
sophisticated Lagrangian model.
meteorology is run separately with no feedback between meteorology and chemistry
in its simplest form, LADM simulates the dispersion of non-reactive gases like SO2 and total nitrogen oxides
LADM also includes IER equations of smog formation, and, therefore, it can model photochemical formation and dispersion
of gases such as O3 and NO2 (cf Eulerian models) (click here for on-line smog calculations using the IER method)
‘fair-weather’ model, constant or slowly varying synoptic pattern (cf Eulerian models) complex terrain
valid for both near-source and regional scale simulations
input data
representative synoptic scale vertical profile of wind and temperature
time-varying emissions of all pollutants
terrain, land use, soil/vegetation properties
generally run model for a few days - case study work, too computer intensive to run for very long time periods, too computer
intensive for lots of sources
hourly output
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 17 of 20
An example of LADM output
NO2, early morning
output data
produces pollutant concentration fields at given times (say hourly), use these to study population exposure
use specific time and place - direct comparisons with observations (time series, etc.)
like Eulerian models (but restricted to fair weather)
The above plots shows Gladstone example - high concentrations behind hill
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 18 of 20
TAPM - CSIRO Atmospheric Research 3-D model (more details at TAPM Web Page)
Sophisticated 3-D, easy to use and run on a PC
Appropriate to talk about TAPM even though it’s an Eulerian model, it can do what ‘dispersion’ models do and relatively
quickly (it can be run for a year, etc)
Dispersion modules - Eulerian Grid Module and Lagrangian Particle Module for predicting concentrations very close to the
source
On-line prognostic meteorology module with input from Bureau of Meteorology Limited Area Prediction System data (LAPS
data)
Predicts pollution parameters directly on local, city or inter-regional scales
Can be run for long time periods
Gas-phase photochemical reactions based on Generic Reaction Set
Gaseous- and aqueous-phase chemical reactions for SO2 and fine particles therefore can predict primary and secondary
pollutants
Connected to databases for meteorology, terrain and vegetation, and, therefore, user only needs to input appropriate
emissions information, no local meteorology data needed
Run for periods of a day to a year or more (1997 onwards)- runs relatively quickly on a PC
Can produce meteorology files for input to regulatory models AUSPLUME, (AUSPUFF), and DISPMOD
Uses input from Bureau of Meteorology Limited Area Prediction System
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 19 of 20
Kwinana run
joint project - CAR and WA DEP
WA DEP provided
hourly SO2 emission data
monitor data
DISPMOD run results
the above plot shows the 9th highest hourly averaged SO2 ground level concentrations
TAPM output
TAPM can produce output in same form as regulatory models. It can also produce specific time/place output - study
population exposure
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9/5/2021 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Local-Scale Air Pollution Model
Slide 20 of 20
Summary
Dispersion models
modelling a local source or sources with the prime interest in the region close to the source (near source ground
level concentrations)
TAPM does this as well as regional-scale modelling (TAPM Home Page)
Assumptions / limitations
common assumptions include simple meteorology, simple representation of the effects of terrain (no complex
terrain), and no or simple chemical transformations
often their underlying assumptions are not valid at larger scales, e.g. sea-breezes, valley flows, recirculation of air
(polluted/clean)
Input data
meteorology - simple hourly file surface winds and temperatures, record mixing height, stability class (surface
radiation, cloud), (field work, Bureau of Meteorology), more complex meteorology file - meteorological model.
emission rates for all pollutants that you want to study, time variation, data about sources eg. height, exit velocity and
temperature if buoyant plume - get this info from source, EPAs, literature, field work etc
can be difficult
Models designed to output various quantities that are generally required for cf. with air quality standards
average concentrations of pollutants over specified time periods
highest ground level concentrations for a pollutant over a region or at certain locations within the region
models not used to predict glc info at a specific time and place - average quantities
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