STA112

PROBAILITY 1

BY
PROF. A. O. ADEJUMO
 COURSE CONTENT
• Permutation and combination. Concepts
and principles of probability. Random
variables. Probability and distribution
functions. Basic distributions: Binomial,
geometric, Poisson, normal and sampling
distributions; exploratory data analysis.
 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
• The application of probability is evident in most
areas of human endeavour. For example, the
chance of a seed planted to germinate or not,
chance of an accident occurring on a road,
probability of getting a head when a coin is
tossed, chance of a top politician winning an
election, e.t.c. are examples of probability.
Therefore, we must be able to assess the degree
of uncertainty, in any given situation, and this is
done mathematically by using probability
 Definition of some terms
• Experiment: Any process that yields a result or
an observation.
• Outcome: A particular result of an experiment
• Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes
of an experiment.
• Sample point: The individual outcomes in a
sample space.
• Event: Any subset of the sample space. If A is an
event, then n(A) is the number of sample points
that belong to event A.
 Probability
• Probability of an event is a measure of the
likelihood of that event occurring. If an
experiment has a finite number of outcomes
which are equally likely, then the probability
A

that an event A will occur is given by

• P(A)= n(A)/n(S)
• Where n(A) is number of elements in event A
• N(S) is the total elements in the sample space
 Examples
• Example 1: A die is tossed once and the outcome
could be any of these: The sample space is
• S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
• n(S)=6
• Example 2: Lets toss a coin twice and the
outcome for each of toss in recorded. The sample
space is shown here in two different ways.
• S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
• n(S) = 4
 Examples

• Example 3: Lets toss a coin thrice and the outcome

for each toss is recorded.
• S = { HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,HTT,THT,TTH,TTT }
• n(S) = 8
• Example 4. Two dice are rolled and the sum of the
numbers appearing are observed.
• n(S)=36, the least (1,1)=2, the highest (6,6)=12
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 total
• n(x) 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 36
 Permutation
• Permutation is a special arrangement of a group of
objects in some order. Any other arrangement of the
same objects is a different permutation. The key words
for permutation are order or arrangement. For
example, lets arrange n people in order. There are n
possible chances for the first person, n-1 remaining
possible chances for the second person, n-2 remaining
possible chances for the third person, e.t.c, that is,
• The number of possible arrangement
• n! = n x (n –1) x (n – 2) x ….x 1)
• = n! (n factorial)
 Examples
• Example 5.
• 0! = 1
• 1! = 1
• 2! = 2 x 1 = 2
• 3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6
• 4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24
• 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120
• 6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720
 Examples

• this is the number of permutations of n

objects taken r at a time.
• Example 6: In how many ways can three
people be seated on 6 seats in a row?
• solution 6! 6! 6 x5 x 4 x3!
6 P3     6 x5 x 4  120
(6  3)! 3! 3!
 Examples
• Example 7: How many distinct arrangements can be made
using all the letters of the word Economics.
• Solution
• From the word Economics, o = 2, c = 2, and total letters = 9

• 90720 arrangements
 Examples
• Example 4.8: How many different numbers of
six digits can be formed using digits 4, 4, 6, 6,
6, 6.
• Solution
• Total digits (n) = 6
• 4 has frequency = 2
• 6 has frequency = 4
 Example
• In a library there are 7 Physics books, 6 Biology
books and 5 Chemistry Books. In how many ways
can these books be arranged on a Shelf if
• i) books of the same subjects are to stay
together?
• ii) only Physics books are to stay together?
• iii) only Chemistry books are to stay together?
• iv) arrange anyhow without reference to subject?
 Solution
• Physics books can be arranged in 7! Ways
• 7p7 ways 7x6x5x4x3x2x1
• Biology books can be arranged in 6! Ways
• 6p6 ways 6x5x4x3x2x1
• Chemistry books can be arranged in 5! Ways
• 5p5 ways 5x4x3x2x1
• 3 different subjects can be arranged in 3! Ways
• 3p3 ways 3x2x1

• i) 7!x6!x5!x3!=
• Ii) 7!x12! (5 chem + 6 Biol + Physics as 1) =7!x12!=
• Iii) 5!x14! (7 Phys + 6 Biol+ Chem as 1) = 5!x14!=
• Iv) 18 books = 18P18 ways= 18!=
 Combination
• Combination is any collection of a group of objects
without regard to order. Problems involving
combinations, where order is not relevant, are very
similar to problems involving combinations, where
order is critical. The only difference between
permutations and combinations is whether order
matters.

• is the number of possible combinations of n objects

taken r at a time.
 Examples
• Example 10: Find the number of ways in
which three students can be selected from
five students.
• Solution
• 3 students can be chosen from 5 students in
5C3 ways
 Examples
• Example 11
• A Mathematics examination consists of 8 questions
out of which candidates are to answer 5. In how many
ways can each candidate select if
• a) There is no compulsory question
• b) The first 3 questions are compulsory
• c) At least 3 out of the first 4 questions are
compulsory

• Solution
• a). From 8 questions to answer 5 questions, if there is
no compulsory question, 8C5 =56
 Example contd.
• b).
• If the first 3 questions are compulsory, then a
candidate can choose 2 more questions from the
remaining 5
• 5C2 =10 ways
• C).
• At least 3 out of the first 4 questions are
compulsory means the candidate may answer 3 out
of the first 4 compulsory questions and 2 from the
remaining 4 questions or all the 4 first compulsory
questions and 1 from the remaining 4 questions.
• 4C3 x 4C2 + 4C4 x 4C1 =24+4=28
 Example
• Example 12: From a gathering of 100 people
of which 40 are men, a committee of 15 is to
be formed. In how many ways can this be
done so that (i) 3 men are there? (ii) no man is
included?
 Solution
• Total number of people = 100
Men = 40, Women = 100 – 40 = 60

• i). 3 men in the committee means 12 women in the

committee
40C3 x 60C12 = 40! x 60!
(40-3)! 3! (60-12)! 12!
=1.362566539x1018
• Ii). If no man is included, it means the whole of the
committee members are women. We have 60 women in
the gathering.
60C15 x 40C0 = 60C15
 Example
• Example 13: A bag contains 2 white and 3 red
balls. In how many ways can 3 balls be chosen
if
a. at least one ball must be white?
b. at least one ball must be red?
 Solution
• White balls = 2, red balls = 3
Total balls = 5

• a). To choose at least one white ball means

one white or more is to be
chosen. That is, 1W and 2R or 2W and 1R
= 2C1x3C2 + 2C2x3C1
= 2x3 + 1x3 = 6 + 3 = 9 ways

• b). to chose at least one red means one red or

more. That is, 1R and 2W or
2R and 1W or 3R and no white
• 3C1x2C2+3C2x2C1+3C3x2C0
• =3+6+1=10ways
 Example
• In a General Hospital where there are 10 Nurses. 5
are to be assigned to Wards, 3 to Pharmacy, and 2
to the Laboratory. In how many ways can these 10
Nurses be assigned?
• Solution
•  10  10! 10x9 x8x7 x6
     10x9 x 4 x7  2520
 5 3 2  5! x3! x 2! 3x 2 x2
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

• RANDOM VARIABLE
A variable that assumes a unique numerical value for each of the
outcomes in the sample space of a probability experiment is called
a random variable. In other words, a random variable is used to
represent the outcome of a probability experiment.
• For example, if we toss four coins and the random
variable x represents the number of tails that occur, then the only
possible values it can assume are x = 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4. This is a
discrete random variable. (it is called “random” because the value it
assumes is the result of a chance, or random event). A discrete
random variable is one that can assume any of a set of possible
values that can be counted or listed.
 Discrete Distribution or Probability
Distribution
• When we deal with a discrete random variable and
consider all the possibilities associated with it, we
generate a discrete
distribution or a probability distribution.

• Mean of a Probability distribution is

E ( X )   XP( x)  
• The variance of a probability distribution is
V .( X )  E ( X 2 )  ( E ( X )) 2   ( X   ) 2 P( x)   2

• The standard deviation of a probability distribution

SD.( X )  E ( X 2 )  ( E ( X )) 2   ( X   ) 2
P( x)  
 BERNOULLI DISTRIBUTION

• A Bernoulli experiment is a random experiment, the

outcome of which can be classified in but one of two
mutually exclusive and exhaustive ways, say, success or
failure (e.g. true or false, male or female, good or bad,
etc). We represent for example, the probability of
success, say, p, and failure by 1 – p or q.
• Bernoulli trial occurs when a Bernoulli experiment is
done a number of independent times.
• The probability density function (pdf) is given as

1 x
f ( x)  P( x)  P (1  P) , x  0,1
x
 Mean and Variance of Bernoulli
• Mean
E(X)   XP(x)   XP (1 - P) x (1- x)
x  0,1
 0 P  P

• Variance

V(X)  E ( X 2 )  ( E ( X )) 2   X 2 P(x) - P 2   X 2 P x (1 - P) (1-x)  P 2

x  0,1
V ( X )  P  P  P(1  P)  pq
2
 Applications
• Example 14: If X~ Ber (0.7), find the mean and
variance.
Solution
It can be deduced that p = 0.7 and q = 1 – p =
1 – 0.7 = 0.3
Therefore,
Mean = E(x) = p = 0.7
V(x) = pq = p(1-p) = 0.7 x 0.3
= 0.21
 Example 15
• Some Students of STA112 were asked if they
have eaten today or not. Let x=1 represents
student already eaten, and x=0 for student yet
to eat. The follow results were obtained from
10 sampled students from the class:
• 1,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,0,1. If our interest is those
that have eaten, obtain:
• i). the probability of success (P)?
• Ii). The mean, variance and standard deviation
 Solution
• There were 10 students, 6 of them have eaten
and 4 were yet to eat.
• i) Probability of success(those that have
eaten) is P=6/10=0.6
• Ii) Mean=P=0.6
• Variance=P(1-P)=pq=0.6x0.4=0.24
• Standard Deviation= pq  0.6 x0.4  0.24  0.4899
 Binomial Distribution
• If we let the random variable X equal the
number of observed successes in n
Bernoulli trials, the possible values of x are
0, 1, 2,..., n. If x successes occur,
where x = 0, 1, 2, …., n, then n–x failures occur.
The pdf of x, say f(x) is
n x (n x)
f ( x)    P (1  P) , x  0,1,2,3,, n
 x
Properties of Binomial Distribution
• The binomial experiment must possess the following
properties:
1. Each trial has two possible outcomes (success,
failure)
2. There are n repeated independent trial
3. The probability of success on each trial is a constant
p; the probability of failure is q = 1 – p.
4. The random variable X equals the number of
successes in the n trials.
The random variable x defined above is said to be a
Binomial distribution with parameters n and p denoted
as X~ Bi (n, p)
 Mean and Variance of Binomial
• Mean n x
E(X)   XP(x)   X P (1 - P) (n -x)
x x  0,1,2,, n
E ( X )  np

• Variance
n
V(X)  E ( X 2 )  ( E ( X )) 2   X 2 P(x) - (np) 2   X 2  P x (1 - P)(n -x)  (np) 2 ,
x x  0,1,2,, n
V ( X )  np(1  p)  npq
 Applications
• Example 15: If X is a binomial random variable,
calculate the probability of x for
a). n = 3, x = 2, P = 0.3
b). n = 4, x = 0, P = 0.4
Solution
n
P ( X  x)    P x (1  P ) ( n  x ) , x  0,1,2,3, , n
 x

• a)  3
P ( X  2)  
 2
0.3 (1  0.3)
2 ( 3 2 )
,  0.189
 

 4 0
• b) P ( X  0)   0.4 (1  0.4) ( 40 ) ,  0.1296
0
 Example 16
• X~ Bi (10, 0.5). Find the following probabilities
• a). P(x=4)
• b). P(x ≤ 2)
• c). P(1<x<5) ≤

• d). P(1≤x ≤3)

• e). At least 2
• f). At most 2
• g). Mean, Variance and Coefficient of Variation
 Solution
10  x
P( X  x)   0.5 (1  0.5) (10 x ) , x  0,1,2,3,,10
x

10 
• a) P ( X  4)   0.5 4 (1  0.5) (10 4 )  0.2051
4
• b). P( X  2)  p( x  0)  p( x  1)  p( x  2)  (10C 0  10C1  10C 2) x0.510
 56x0.510  0.05469

• c) P(1  X  5)  p( x  2)  p( x  3)  p( x  4)  (10C 2  10C 3  10C 4) x0.510

 375x0.510  0.3662

• d).P(1  X  3)  p( x  1)  p( x  2)  p( x  3)  (10C1  10C 2  10C 3) x0.5 10

 175x0.510  0.1709
 Solution
• e).P(atleast2)  P( x  2)  1  P( x  1)  1  ( p( x  0)  p( x  1))  1  (10C 0  10C1) x0.5 10
)
 1  (11x0.510 )  0.9893

• f).P(atMost2)  P( x  2)  p( x  0)  p( x  1)  p( x  2)  (10C 0  10C1  10C 2) x0.5 10

)
 (56x0.510 )  0.05469

• g).Mean=np=10x0.5=5
• Variance=npq=10x0.5x0.5=2.5
• Standard deviation=square root(npq)=1.5811
• CV=SD/mean x100 =31.6228%
 Poisson Distribution
• A random variable x is said to have a Poisson
probability distribution if the
x 
e
f ( x)  P( x)  , x  0,1,2,3,  ,
x!
• Mean=E(X)=Variance=V(X)=λ
 Properties & Area of Application of
Poisson Distribution
• It is used for rare events.
• It is used to study skewed population.

• Areas of Applications are on data like:

• Number of Telephone calls received
• Number of Accident on a certain road
• Number of Radio-active disintegrations of radio active
elements per unit
• Number of Bacterial per unit
• Number of defectives materials in a pack or batch.
 Applications
• Example 16
• If x is distributed Poisson with parameter λ=1.44,
x ~Po(λ=1.44) or x ~Po(1.44). Obtain the
• i). Pr(X=3)
• ii). Pr(x≤2)
• iii). Pr(1<x<3)
• iv). Pr(at least 2)
• v). Pr(at most 2)
• vi). Pr(2≤x≤4)
 Solution
x 1.44
1.44 e
P( X  x)  , x  0,1,2,3,,
x!
1.443 e 1.44
• i) P ( X  3)   0.1179
3!
1.440 e 1.44 1.441 e 1.44 1.44 2 e 1.44
• ii) P( X  2)  P( x  0)  P( x  1)  P( x  2)  0!  1!  2!
1.44 1,44 2
P( X  2)  e (1  1.44  )  0.8238
2
 Solution
1.44 2 e 1.44 1, 44 2
• iii) P(1  X  3)  P( x  2)   e 1.44 ( )  0.2456
2! 2

1.440 e 1.44 1.441 e 1.44

• iv) P(atLeast2)  P( X  2)  1  P( x  1)  1  ( P( x  0)  P( x  1))  1  (
0!

1!
)

P( X  2)  1  (e 1.44 (1  1.44))  1  0.5781  0.4219

1.440 e 1.44 1.441 e 1.44 1.44 2 e 1.44

• v) P(atMost2)  P( X  2)  P( x  0)  P( x  1)  P( x  2) 
0!

1!

2!
1.44 1,44 2
P( X  2)  e (1  1.44  )  0.8238
2

• vi) P(2  X  4)  P( x  2)  P( x  3)  P( x  4) 
1.44 2 e 1.44 1.443 e 1.44 1.444 e 1.44
 
2! 3! 4!
2
1.44 1,44 1,443 1,444
P(2  X  4)  e (   )  0.40600
2 3! 4!