Week 1 Random Variables
Week 1 Random Variables
Variables
By Ms. Marjorie Monzales
Week 01
TABLE of contents
Probability Distribution
Two Types Of
for a Discrete Random
Random Variables
• Learn to distinguish between
the two types of random
01 02 Variable
• Know and understand the notion of
discrete random variables. • Learn
variables: continuous and how to use discrete random variables
discrete to solve probabilities of outcomes.
Two Types Of
Random Variables
• Learn to distinguish between the two types of
random variables: continuous and discrete
Introduction
Discrete and continuous variables are two types of quantitative variables:
Discrete variables represent counts (e.g. the number of objects in a collection).
Continuous variables represent measurable amounts (e.g. water volume or weight).
r
Discrete Random Variables and Continuous
Random Variables
In real life, most of our observations are in the form of numerical data that are the observed
values of what are called random variables. In this chapter, we will study random variables and
learn how to find probabilities of specific numerical outcomes.
The number of cars in a parking lot, the average daily rainfall in inches, the number of defective
tires in a production line, and the weight in kilograms of an African elephant cub are all
examples of quantitative variables.
If we let X represent a quantitative variable that can be measured or observed, then we will be
interested in finding the numerical value of this quantitative variable. A random variable is a
function that maps the elements of the sample space to a set of numbers.
Discrete Random Variables and Continuous
Random Variables
Example: Three voters are asked whether they are in favor of building a charter school in a
certain district. Each voter’s response is recorded as ’Yes (Y)’ or ’No (N)’. What are the random
variables that could be of interest in this experiment?
Voter #1 Voter #2 Voter #3 Value of Random
Variable (number of In the light of this
Yes votes) example, what do we
Figure: Possible 1 Y Y Y 3
mean by random
outcomes of the variable? The adjective
random variable in 2 Y Y N 2 ’random’ means that
this example from the experiment may
three voters. 3 Y N Y 2 result in one of several
4 N Y Y 2 possible values of the
variable. F
5 Y N N 1
6 N Y N 1
7 N N Y 1
8 N N N 0
Discrete Random Variables and Continuous
Random Variables
There are two types of random variables, discrete and continuous. Random variables that can
assume only a countable number of values are called discrete. Random variables that can take
on any of the countless number of values in an interval are called continuous.
Lesson Summary
Progress:
02
Probability
Distribution for a
Discrete Random
Variable
• Know and understand the notion of discrete random variables.
Progress:
Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random Variable
1
𝑃 𝑥 = 0 = 𝑃 𝑇𝑇 = +
Example: Suppose you simultaneously toss two fair 4
1 1 1
coins. Let X be the number of heads observed. Find the 𝑃 𝑥 = 1 = 𝑃 𝐻𝑇 + 𝑃 𝑇𝐻 = 4+4 = 2
probability associated with each value of the random 1
variable X. 𝑃 𝑥 = 2 = 𝑃 𝐻𝐻 =
4
Coin 1 Coin 2 X
(Number X P(X)
of heads) 0 1
= 0.25
1 H H 2 4
2 H T 1 1 1
= 0.5
2
3 T H 1
2 1
4 T T 0 = 0.25
4
Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random Variable
Example: What is the probability distribution for the
number of yes votes for three voters? (See the first
example in the Chapter Introduction.)
Voter #1 Voter #2 Voter #3 Value of Random Value of Random Probability
Variable (number of
Variable P(X)
Yes votes)
(Number of Yes
1 Y Y Y 3 Votes)
2 Y Y N 2 1
0
= 0.125
3 Y N Y 2 8
4 N Y Y 2 1 3
= 0.375
5 Y N N 1 8
6 N Y N 1 2 3
= 0.375
7 N N Y 1
8
3 1
8 N N N 0 = 0.125
8
The probability distribution of a discrete random
variable is a graph, a table, or a formula that
specifies the probability associated with each
possible value that the random variable can
assume.
Lesson Summary
Progress:
03
Mean and Standard
Deviation of
Discrete Random
Variables
• Know the definition of the mean, or expected value, of a discrete
random variable. • Know the definition of the standard deviation of
a discrete random variable. • Know the definition of the variance of
a discrete random variable. • Find the expected value of a variable.
Introduction
In this lesson, you will be presented with the formulas for the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a discrete random variable. You will also be shown many real-world examples of
how to use these formulas. In addition, the meaning of expected value will be discussed.
Characteristics of a Probability Distribution
The most important characteristics of any probability distribution are the mean (or average
value) and the standard deviation (a measure of how spread out the values are).
A common symbol for the mean is μ (mu), the lowercase m of the Greek alphabet. A common
symbol for standard deviation is 𝜎 (sigma), the Greek lowercase s.
Mean Value or Expected Value
The mean value, or expected value, of a discrete random variable X is given by the following
equation:
μ = Ε(x) = Σxp(x)
To calculate the population mean, multiply each possible outcome of the random variable X by
its associated probability and then sum over all possible values of X:
Mean Value or Expected Value
Example: Recall the probability distribution of the 2- 1
𝑃 𝑥 = 0 = 𝑃 𝑇𝑇 = +
coin experiment. Calculate the mean of this 4
1 1 1
distribution 𝑃 𝑥 = 1 = 𝑃 𝐻𝑇 + 𝑃 𝑇𝐻 = + =
4 4 2
μ = Σxp(x) 1
𝑃 𝑥 = 2 = 𝑃 𝐻𝐻 =
To calculate the population mean, multiply each 4
possible outcome of the random variable X by its X P(X)
associated probability and then sum over all 0 1
= 0.25
possible values of X: 4
1 1
Coin 1 Coin 2 X (Number = 0.5
2
of heads)
2 1
1 H H 2 = 0.25
4
2 H T 1 μ = Σxp(x)
3 T H 1 μ = 0 0.25 + 1 0.5 + 2 0.25
4 T T 0 μ = 0 + 0.5 + 0.5
μ=1
The Variance & The Standard Deviation
The variance of a discrete random variable is given by the following formula:
2
𝜎2 = Σ 𝑥 − 𝜇 𝑃 𝑥
The square root of the variance, or, in other words, the square root of s2, is the standard
deviation of a discrete random variable:
𝜎= 𝜎2
The Variance & The Standard Deviation
Example: A university medical research center finds out that treatment of skin cancer by the use
of chemotherapy has a success rate of 70%. Suppose five patients are treated with
chemotherapy. The probability distribution of x successful cures of the five patients is given in
the table below:
𝑥 0 1 2 3 4 5
Lesson Summary
Progress:
04
Sums and
Differences of
Independent
Random Variables
• Construct probability distributions of independent random
variables. • Calculate the mean and standard deviation for sums
and differences of independent random variables.
Introduction
A probability distribution is the set of values that a random variable can take on. At this time,
there are three ways that you can create probability distributions from data. Sometimes
previously collected data, relative to the random variable that you are studying, can help to
create a probability distribution. In addition to this method, a simulation is also a good way to
create an approximate probability distribution. A probability distribution can also be constructed
from the basic principles, assumptions, and rules of theoretical probability. The examples in this
lesson will lead you to a better understanding of these rules of theoretical probability
Sums and Differences of Independent Random
Variables
Example: Create a table that shows all the possible outcomes when two dice are rolled simultaneously. (Hint:
There are 36 possible outcomes.)
This table of possible outcomes when two dice are rolled simultaneously that is shown above can now be used to
construct various probability distributions. The first table below displays the probabilities for all the possible sums of the
two dice, and the second table shows the probabilities for each of the possible results for the larger of the two numbers
produced by the dice.
Sums and Differences of Independent Random
Variables
Example: Create a table that shows all the possible outcomes when two dice are rolled simultaneously. (Hint:
There are 36 possible outcomes.)
When you roll the two dice, what is the probability that the sum is 4? By looking at the first table above, you can
3
see that the probability is 36 . What is the probability that the larger number is 4? By looking at the second table
7
above, you can see that the probability is 36
Sums and Differences of Independent Random
Variables
Example: The Regional Hospital has recently opened a new pulmonary unit and has released the following data
on the proportion of silicosis cases caused by working in the coal mines. Suppose two silicosis patients are
randomly selected from a large population with the disease.
There are four possible outcomes for the two patients. With ’yes’ representing “worked in the mines” and ’no’
representing “did not work in the mines”, the possibilities are as follows:
Sums and Differences of Independent Random
Variables
As stated previously, the patients for this survey have been randomly selected from a large population, and
therefore, the outcomes are independent. The probability for each outcome can be calculated by multiplying the
appropriate proportions as shown:
If X represents the number silicosis patients who worked in the mines in this random sample, then the first of
these outcomes results in x = 0, the second and third each result in x = 1, and the fourth results in x = 2.
Because the second and third outcomes are disjoint, their probabilities can be added. The probability
distribution for X is given in the table below:
Sums and Differences of Independent Random
Variables
As stated previously, the patients for this survey have been randomly selected from a large population, and
therefore, the outcomes are independent. The probability for each outcome can be calculated by multiplying the
appropriate proportions as shown:
If X represents the number silicosis patients who worked in the mines in this random sample, then the first of
these outcomes results in x = 0, the second and third each result in x = 1, and the fourth results in x = 2.
Because the second and third outcomes are disjoint, their probabilities can be added. The probability
distribution for X is given in the table below:
Thanks For
Listening