Climate Change 1
Climate Change 1
➢ The balance between incoming energy from the sun and outgoing energy from
Earth ultimately drives our climate.
➢ This energy balance is governed by the first law of thermodynamics, also known as
the law of conservation of energy.
➢ This law states that energy can be transferred from one system to another in many
forms, but it cannot be created or destroyed.
➢ Therefore, any energy “lost” during one process will equal the same amount of energy
“gained” during another.
Climate change
● Climate change is a change in the usual weather found in a place.
○ Temperature
○ Pressure
○ Humidity
○ Rainfall
○ Wind
➢ The Earth's climate has changed throughout history.
➢ Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the
abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago.
➢ It marked the beginning of the modern climate era— and of human civilization.
➢ Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that
change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.
Causes of climate change
➢ There is an energy balance in the atmosphere which maintains the climate on Earth.
➢ When averaged over the course of a year, the amount of incoming solar radiation received from
the sun has balanced the amount of outgoing energy emitted from Earth. This equilibrium is called
Earth's energy or radiation balance.
➢ A negative forcing, such as that produced by airborne particulates that reflect solar
energy, tends to cool the Earth’s surface.
● Forcings may also be either
○ natural- or
○ human-caused (also known as anthropogenic)
Natural Causes of climate change
The natural causes of climate change are
● Volcanoes
● Forest fires
● Earth’s tilt
● The drift process is still continued today as seen in the Himalayas rising by about 1 cm every year.
➢ Sunspot and solar cycle
➢ Sunspots are storms on the sun’s surface that cause intense magnetic activity, solar flares and
hot gassy ejections from the sun’s corona.
● The eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1991 decreased global temperatures decreased by
about 0.5 °C for up to three years
● Although the volcanic activity may last only a few days yet the large volumes of gases and ash can
influence the climatic pattern over the several years.
Forest fires
● Wildfires, which are intensified by global warming, also exacerbate global warming.
● Forest fires produce a lot of smoke which carries soot particles that increase the greenhouse
effect in the atmosphere.
● Black carbon, a component of soot, absorbs heat in the atmosphere and hastens
snowmelt when it lands on snow.
● While forests and healthy soil normally absorb carbon dioxide, fires cause the release of
carbon dioxide from vegetation and soil into the atmosphere, trapping ever more heat.
Comets and meteorites
● Meteorites striking Earth also affect sea level, rainfall, temperature, ocean currents, and
atmospheric circulation.
● An impact from a body of the size of meteorites would have released huge quantities of
vaporised material into the atmosphere, blocking out the Sun and causing an initial "impact
winter".
● In addition, chemical reactions taking place in the atmosphere between pollutants would
result in the formation of globally distributed acid rains.
● Luckily such impacts only occur rarely, perhaps every few million or tens of millions of years.
Anthropogenic causes
● The most important anthropogenic cause for climate change is attributed to global
warming trend observed since the mid-20th century.
● According to most climate scientists the chief cause of the current global
warming trend is the increase in the "greenhouse effect".
Greenhouse effect
● Earth is sometimes called the “Goldilocks” planet – it’s not too hot, not too cold,
and the conditions are just right to allow life, including us, to flourish.
● Part of what makes Earth so amenable is the naturally-arising greenhouse effect,
which keeps the planet at a friendly 15 °C (59 °F) on average.
● At nighttime, it's colder outside, but the greenhouse stays pretty warm inside. That's because
the glass walls of the greenhouse trap the Sun's heat.
● The greenhouse effect is produced the same way on Earth as a whole.
● Earth acts like the building and the gases in the atmosphere acts like the glass in the
greenhouse.
● The gases in the atmosphere trap the heat of the Sun’s rays within them to keep the Earth
warm.
● These heat trapping gases in the atmosphere are called greenhouse gases.
How greenhouse effect works?
● The sun's high temperature causes it to emit solar radiation of mostly shorter wavelengths.
● Therefore, incoming solar energy from the sun primarily consist of shorter wavelengths of
energy, mostly in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum.
● The sun's visible wavelengths of radiation pass easily through the atmosphere and reach Earth.
● Approximately 51% of this sunlight is absorbed at Earth's surface by the land, water, and
vegetation.
● Some of this energy is emitted back from the Earth's surface in the form of
infrared radiation.
● Because Earth is colder than the sun, it emits radiation at much longer
wavelengths (in the infrared part of the spectrum).
● Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and other trace gases in Earth's
atmosphere absorb the longer wavelengths of outgoing infrared radiation from
Earth's surface.
● These gases then emit the infrared radiation in all directions, both outward toward space and
downward toward Earth.
● This process creates a second source of radiation to warm to surface– visible radiation from
the sun and infrared radiation from the atmosphere – which causes Earth to be warmer than it
otherwise would be.
● This process is known as the natural greenhouse effect and keeps Earth's average global
temperature at approximately 15°C (59°F).
● Without the greenhouse effect, Earth’s average surface temperature would be only about −18
°C and the earth would have been a frozen, barren planet.
Why do greenhouse gases absorb heat?
● Greenhouse gases are more complex than other gas molecules in the atmosphere.
● The atoms are held together loosely enough that they vibrate when they absorb
heat.
● Eventually, the vibrating molecules release the radiation, which will likely be
absorbed by another greenhouse gas molecule.
● Primary GHG.
● It absorbs a part of terrestrial radiation and reflects back some part of it towards the
earth’s surface. It is largely responsible for the greenhouse effect
● Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by more than a third since the
Industrial Revolution began.
• Ozone is another important greenhouse gas. But it is in very small proportions at the surface.
• Most of it is confined to the stratosphere where it absorbs the harmful UV radiation.
• At ground level, pollutants like NO2 react with volatile organic compounds in the presence of
sunlight to produce ozone (tropospheric ozone).
⦁ Water vapour
• Water vapour is also a variable gas in the atmosphere, which decreases with altitude.
• Water vapour also decreases from the equator towards the poles.
• In the warm and wet tropics, it may account for four per cent of the air by volume, while in the dry
and cold areas of desert and polar regions, it may be less than one per cent of the air.
• One unique feature about this greenhouse gas is that it absorbs both incoming (a part of
incoming) and outgoing solar radiation.
⦁ Methane
● It is 20 times more potent as a GHG than CO2 but has a short lifespan.
⦁ Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
● It is even more potent than methane as a GHG (300 times than CO2).
⦁ Carbon Monoxide
• Carbon monoxide is a short-lived greenhouse gas (it is less dense than air).
• Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide.
Fluorinated gases:
● Source: Industrial processes such as aluminum and semiconductor manufacturing, substitute for
ODS (Ozone Depleting Substances) in products like refrigerators, air-conditioners, foams and
aerosol cans.
⦁ Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
• This anthropogenic compound is also a greenhouse gas, with a much higher potential to
enhance the greenhouse effect than CO2.
⦁ Hydrofluorocarbons
● Sulfur hexafluoride has a GWP of 22,800, making it the most potent greenhouse
gas designated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
⦁ Perfluorocarbons
⦁ Sulphur hexafluoride
• Black carbon (BC) is a solid particle or aerosol (though not a gas) that contributes to warming of the atmosphere.
Black carbon, commonly known as soot.
• Soot is a form of particulate air pollutant, produced from incomplete combustion.
• Black carbon warms the earth by absorbing heat in the atmosphere and by reducing albedo (the ability to reflect
sunlight) when deposited on snow and ice.
• BC is the strongest absorber of sunlight and heats the air directly.
• In addition, it darkens snow packs and glaciers through deposition and leads to melting of ice and snow.
• Regionally, BC disrupts cloudiness and monsoon rainfall.
• Black carbon stays in the atmosphere for only several days to weeks.
• Thus, the effects of BC on the atmospheric warming and glacier retreat disappear within months of reducing
emissions.
⦁ Brown Carbon
• GHG Protocol is developing standards, tools and online training that helps countries,
cities and companies track progress towards their climate goals.
• GHG Protocol establishes frameworks to measure and manage greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from private and public sector operations, value chains and mitigation actions.
• GHG Protocol arose when World Resources Institute (WRI) ( NGO US BASED) and World
Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) GENEVA recognized the need
for an international standard for corporate GHG accounting and reporting in the late
1990s.
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
● GWP is a parameter to measure the amount of heat a GHG traps in the
atmosphere.
● In other words, it is a tool to compare the global warming effects of different
GHGs.
● Specifically, it is a measure of how much energy the emissions of 1 ton of a
gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emissions of 1 ton
of carbon dioxide (CO2).
● The time period usually used for GWPs is 100 years.
● GWPs provide a common unit of measure, which allows analysts to add up
emissions estimates of different gases (e.g., to compile a national GHG
inventory).
● It allows policymakers to compare emissions reduction opportunities across
sectors and gases.
● The larger the GWP, the more a given GHG warms the Earth compared to
CO2 over that time period (usually 100 years).
Gas GWP (100-year) Lifetime (years)
Methane 21 12
The larger the GWP ,the more warming the gas causes.
For ex- methane’s 100 year GWP-is 21 which means that
methane will cause 21 times as much as an equivalent mass
of carbon dioxide over a 100 year time period.
● The effects of climate change can be studied under the following heads
○ Rise in Temperature
○ Melting ice
○ Extreme climates
○ Ocean acidification
○ Agriculture
● This is due to the higher heat capacity of oceans as compared to the land.
● The polar regions have warmed more than the tropical regions. This is happening
because, as the brighter ice (with higher albedo and reflectivity) melts, the darker
water (with a lower albedo) can absorb more heat and intensify the warming.
Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere
● Measurements from satellites and weather balloons show that the lowest
layer of the atmosphere— the layer where we live, airplanes fly, and weather
occurs— is warming.
● Greenhouse gases are building up in this layer, trapping heat radiated from
Earth's surface and raising the planet's temperature.
Air Temperature over Ocean
● Thermometers on ships and floating buoys show that air near the ocean's
surface is getting warmer, increasing its ability to evaporate water.
● In turn, we see an increase in heavy precipitation events and flooding on
land.
Air Temperature over Land
● Satellites and weather stations on land show that average air temperature at
the surface is going up.
● Consequently, we see an increase in the number of heat wave events and the
area affected by drought.
Sea Surface Temperature
● Satellite sensors and thermometers on ships and buoys show that the
temperature of water at the ocean's surface is rising.
● Warm surface waters can damage coral reefs, reducing opportunities for
fishing and tourism, and leave coasts vulnerable to storm surges and erosion.
● Scientists project global mean temperature to increase by approximately 1°C for the
lowest emissions scenario and 4°C for the highest emissions scenario by 2100.
● This projected global mean temperature change for the 21st century will depend on
which scenario actually occurs.
● The low emissions scenario assumes that humans will aggressively reduce emissions so
that the increase by 2100 is only 2°C higher than pre-industrial levels.
● This 2°C seems to be a critical number for many scientists, including the IPCC.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
● Warming by 1.5-2 degree celsius would not be the same everywhere on the
planet.
● The strongest warming is happening in the Arctic during its cool seasons, and
in Earth’s mid-latitude regions during the warm season.
● .
● Most land regions will see more hot days, especially in the tropics.
● At 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, about 14 percent of Earth’s population will be
exposed to severe heat waves at least once every five years, while at 2 degrees
warming that number jumps to 37 percent.
● Extreme heat waves will become widespread at 1.5 degrees Celsius warming.
● At Earth’s mid-latitudes, the hottest days will be up to 3 degrees Celsius hotter at
1.5 degrees Celsius warming and up to 4 degrees Celsius warmer at 2 degrees
Celsius warming.
● At 2 degrees Celsius warming, the deadly heat waves India and Pakistan saw in 2015
may occur annually.
● Arctic land regions will see cold extremes warm by as much as 5.5 degrees
Celsius at 1.5 degrees Celsius warming or less, while at warming of 1.5 to 2
degrees Celsius, cold extremes will be up to 8 degrees Celsius warmer.
● Places on Earth where it is so cold that water is in its solid form as snow or ice are known as the cryosphere.
● The cryosphere includes ice and snow (precipitation made of ice crystals) in the form of frozen ground, such as
○ Permafrost
○ Sea ice
● In the last 26 years, Greenland's ● The Antarctic ice sheet contains 90% of the freshwater
melting ice has added 0.4 inches on Earth.
(11 millimeters) to sea level ● If all of this ice on Antarctica melted, global sea level
rise. would rise at least 61 meters (200 feet).
Extreme climates
Heat waves
● A heat wave is generally a period of several days to weeks of abnormally hot weather that may
or may not be accompanied by high humidity.
● The World Meteorological Organization defines a heat wave as five or more consecutive days
of temperatures 5°C (9°F) above the average maximum temperature.
● With an increasing number of hotter days, there have been a greater number of heat waves.
Storm events
● Cyclonic storm events can be some of the most powerful storm events on the
planet.
● Scientists say that there will be more tropical cyclones and temperate
cyclones with increasing global warming trends.
Water cycle changes - Precipitation and drought
● Earth’s water cycle changes in response to natural variability, but scientists are becoming more certain that
the human impact of increasing greenhouse gas emissions will cause more changes to the water cycle.
● Evaporation rates will increase with a warmer climate, causing an increase in the amount of moisture in the
lower atmosphere.
● With higher water vapor concentrations, there is an increased frequency of intense precipitation events,
primarily over land areas.
● In addition, there will be greater chances of the precipitation falling as rain than snow due to the warmer
temperatures.
Flooding
● However, the majority of floods are related to weather events. There are four main types of these weather-
related flooding events:
○ Flash floods,
○ Urban flooding
○ Coastal flooding
● A flash flood is a short-term event, happening within just a few hours,caused by heavy precipitation as well
as rapid snowmelt, or the failure of dams or levees.
● Urban flooding, caused by short-term heavy precipitation, occurs as a result of the large areas of impervious
surfaces (such as roads, pavement, parking lots, and buildings).
● River flooding occurs when a river fills with water (drained from the surrounding watershed) and exceeds
the channel capacity and overflows the banks to inundate adjacent low lying areas.
● Finally, storm surges that accompany hurricanes and other coastal storms push large seawater domes
toward the shore causing coastal flooding.
Ocean acidification
● Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about
30 percent.
● This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more
being absorbed into the oceans.
● The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion
tons per year.
Coral reefs
● Forest fires do happen in the Amazon during the dry season between July and October.
● They can be caused by naturally occurring events, like lightning strikes, but this year most are
thought to have been started by farmers and loggers clearing land for crops or grazing.
● This matters because the Amazon is the largest rainforest in the world and a vital carbon store
that slows down the pace of global warming.
● Deforestation releases this trapped carbon into the atmosphere. It can also trigger change in
rainfall patterns leading to drought conditions.
Agriculture
Impact on Crops
● At least three main channels through which climate change would impact farm incomes – an increase in
average temperatures, a decline in average rainfall and an increase in the number of dry-days.
● Higher temperature- > Increased moisture stress and drought -> crop damage and lesser production
● Longer growing season + high temp -> more demand for water-> more drought
● More GHG emission-> more CO2 in the atmosphere-> better plant water-use efficiency and rates of
photosynthesis=> better crop yield but weeds grow faster.
● Sea-level rise + coastal flooding due to cyclones=> coastal land erosion + sea
water intrusion= > salinisation + contamination of fresh water for drinking
and irrigation.
● More floods, droughts and heat waves => crop failure + famine + water
crisis.
● IPCC AR3 predicted that the poorest countries in tropical regions would be
hit the hardest with threat to their food security.
● Ocean acidification=> threat to coral reefs in coastal areas and Indian islands
● Sea level rise + ocean warming=> reduction in delta and coastal land=> threat
to mangroves and threatened species like sea turtles along Odisha beach.
Impact on Humans
● Global warming can lead to aggravated pollution which will in turn lead to more diseases
and epidemics.
● Note- Climate change is discriminatory in nature i.e. its impacts is more forcefully felt up
on poor and deprived sections than rich and those having and controlling resources. It can be
linked to right based issue as well.