Module winter and woods
Module winter and woods
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MODULE 1
What is a CBA?
Time Line
Drawing the timeline is a visual approach for showing the stream of cash flows over time.
Answer: No.
Because of the Time Value of Money, it is incorrect to simply add/subtract cash flows at
different times. We should first use a Discount Factor as the exchange rate for time and
bring all cash flows to the same time base, then add/subtract the values as needed.
Discount rate
It is an estimated rate used to convert future cash flows into present value
• Accounts for the fact that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, because
of returns on investment, interest rates, inflation etc.
• The lower the estimated value of future cash flows, the higher the discount rate.
Discount Factor
It is a multiplier used to convert future cash flows to their present value. The discount factor
1
for converting CF in time t to time 0 would be: 𝑡 or (1+R)-t, where R is the discount rate.
(1+𝑅)
CCB
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Example
Discounting on timeline
We can now
add/subtract these CFs,
because they are in the
same time units (time
0).
• The present value of the cash outflows, or costs related to the investment,
• The present value of the cash inflows, or expected returns of the investment over time,
such as revenue, savings, benefits, based on an estimated discount rate.
• Formula:
∞
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 where σ∞
𝑡=0 ∶ denotes summation of values from time 0
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝑡 onwards.
𝑡=0 (1 + 𝑅)
t = time of the cash flow
R = discount rate
Discussion
Is this a good investment, or not?
CBA for CIS | Winter 2024 | page 15
Calculating the Net Present Value (NPV)
Exercise
1. Let’s calculate the NPV of a crop investment over a period of 3 years with a 5% discount rate.
You invest 1000$ on year 0, then 200$ per year on year 1-3.
You hope to generate $800 in year 1, $900 in year 2, $1000 in year 3.
What would be your net cash flow and discounted cash flow each year?
Hints:
Year Cost (USD) Revenues (USD) Net Cash Flow (USD) Discounted cash flow
= CF = (USD) = CF/(𝟏 + 𝑹)𝒕
Revenue - Cost
0 1000 0
1 200 800
2 200 900
3 200 1000
2. Assume a discount rate of 10%. In other words, money received in the future is worth
10% less per year than money received today.
Calculate the discounted cash flow each year.
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤
Discounted Cash Flow in year t =
(1+𝑅)𝑡
∞
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠 Where:
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝑡
• t = time of the cash flow
𝑡=0 (1 + 𝑅) • R = discount rate
Hint: NPV = Sum of the discounted cash flows for all years – initial investment
Hint:
NPV > 0: The investment is profitable and should be considered.
NPV < 0: The investment would result in a loss and should be reconsidered.
Time preference : whether people prefer to Higher time preference (preference for immediate cash)
→ → higher discount rate
receive money now or later → reduced value placed on future cash flows
Exercise / Assignment
How much are you willing to give up to receive 100 USD in one year? Calculate your discount rate
based on your answer.
Hint: Discount rate represents the percentage of the future value that an individual is willing to
sacrifice to receive the present value immediately.
Present value
Discount rate = (1 − ) × 100
Future value
Exercise / Assignment
Let’s look at the problem from a different angle: consider the following scenarios and write down
your replies. Calculate your discount rate based on your answers.
• Would you prefer to receive 50 USD today or 100 USD in one year?
• How about 60 USD today vs 100 USD in one year?
• Or 70 USD today vs 100 USD in one year?
• Or 80 USD today vs 100 USD in one year?
• How about 90 USD today vs 100 USD in one year?
Hint: If you prefer an offer of X USD today to Y USD in one year and are also prefer an
offer of X+1 USD today to Y USD in one year, your discount factor is at least (1-X/Y)*100.
Key points
• Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is a financial
evaluation method used to determine a
project’s feasibility and economic efficiency
by comparing its total costs and total benefits.
The complex, cumulative way in which the effects of multiple forms of discrimination
(such as racism, sexism, and classism) combine, overlap, or intersect especially in the
experiences of marginalized individuals or groups.
Research indicates that women may experience greater liquidity constraints than men:
• Women often have less access to livelihood resources and prioritize financial security for their
households.
• Women tend to have more limited access to credit and extension services, with different
factors influencing their access to formal credit markets.
As a result, the perceived value of future cash flows relative to immediate cash may vary
between men and women, leading to a different discount rate.
• Anna and John are each expecting to receive $1000 one year from now.
• Anna has higher liquidity constraints. It means she has limits in access to loan and needs cash
now. John is more comfortable waiting.
• Anna’s discount rate: 15% . John’s discount rate: 5% (lower due to fewer constraints)
Calculate the NPV for both Anna and John.
Anna:
∞ 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 𝑡
𝑡=0 (1 + 𝑅)
John:
• Anna values the $1,000 future cash flow at $869.57 today because she needs the money
now due to her higher liquidity constraints.
• John values the same $1,000 at $952.38 today because he is more comfortable waiting,
reflecting his lower discount rate.
CBA for CIS | Winter 2024 | page 28
Gender considerations in discount rate
Key take-aways
• This exercise reflects how the need for immediate funds for someone with liquidity
constraints can lower the value placed on future income, and, as a result, how discount rates
vary based on financial circumstances.
• All else equal, a limited access to loans or higher liquidity constraints lead to higher
discount rates.
Domestic and Care Work: Much of women's work, such as domestic chores and
caregiving to the children and elderly does not generate direct monetary returns.
NPV relies on quantifiable cash flows, which makes it difficult to capture the true
value of these activities.
→ There is often insufficient data on the economic value of women's informal and
unpaid work, making it difficult to perform accurate NPV calculations.
Women’s heavy workloads may not only reduce their personal wellbeing but could also
introduce costs for their children and relatives who traditionally rely on women for
caregiving. By reducing the amount of (quality) time available for caregiving, increased
workloads could come at the expense of kids’ emotional wellbeing and cognitive
development.
Next in Module 2:
1- Measures of cost and benefit in NPV calculations
• Module 1 showed how NPV uses monetary values to assess the costs and
benefits of adopting a decision.
• However, there can be non-monetary benefits to an intervention
• Module 2 will discuss how a Theory of Change can help highlight intended
monetary and non-monetary benefits of an intervention
• In module 2, you will explore how the concepts of uncertainty, risk aversion and
expected utility impact decision-making, and how to factor it in CBA
CBA for CIS | Winter 2024 | page 33
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Recommended readings
• Berk, J., & DeMarzo, P. (2020). Corporate Finance (5th ed., pp. 132-206). Pearson.
• Falk, A., Becker, A., Dohmen, T., Enke, B., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2018). Global
evidence on economic preferences. The quarterly journal of economics, 133(4), 1645-
1692. https://gps.iza.org/about
• Mutenje, M. J., Farnworth, C. R., Stirling, C., Thierfelder, C., Mupangwa, W., &
Nyagumbo, I. (2019). A cost-benefit analysis of climate-smart agriculture options in
Southern Africa: Balancing gender and technology. Ecological Economics, 163, 126–
137.