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Department of Education
National Capital Region
SCHOOLS DIVISION OFFICE
MARIKINA CITY

MATHEMATICS
Quarter 4: Module 8
Probability

Writer: Dominador J. Villafria

Cover Illustrator: Joel J. Estudillo

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DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE
 What I Need to Know

Hello, Grade 5 learners! Welcome to browse, read and study this Grade
5 module on Simple Probability. This module was designed and written with
you in mind. It will help you master the lessons on The Experimental
Probability.

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

1. describe experimental probability (M5SP-IVi-14); and,
2. perform an experimental probability and record result by listing
(M5SP-IVi-15).

Lesson: The Basic Concepts of Probability and the

Experimental Probability

Directions: Read, think, and encircle the letter of the correct answer.

1. It is known as the measure of how certain an outcome of a particular

experiment will occur.
A. activity B. event C. outcome D. probability
2. What is the probability of an event that will certainly happen in percent?
A. 100% B. 75% C. 50% D. 0%
3. If the news of a weather forecaster informs the viewers that the rain is
equally likely to happen tomorrow, what percent is equivalent to this
probability?
A. 0% B. 25% C. 50% D. 100%

For item numbers 4 – 7

In tossing a coin twice, the possible outcomes are: HH, HT, TT, TH.
Notice that upon listing, there were 4 possible outcomes that occurred.
4. What is the probability of having at least one head?
1 1 3 4
A. 4 B. 2 C. 4 D. 5
5. What is the probability of having the same head?
1 1 3 4
A. 4 B. 2 C. 4 D. 5
6. What is the probability of having 3 tails?
A. 0% B. 50% C. 75% D. 100%

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 7. What is the sum of the probability of the occurrence?
1 3
A. 2 B. 4 C. 1 D. 2
8. Which of the following are outcomes of rolling a fair die?
A. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} C. {1, 2, 3, 4,…}
B. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} D. {1, 2, 3}
9. What is the total number of sample space of a 5-peso coin?
A. 6 B. 4 C. 3 D. 2
10. If it is 40% that it will rain today, what is the probability that it will NOT
rain today?
A. 40% B. 50% C. 60% D. 100%

A. What is probability? ________________________________

________________________________________________.
B. What is the known mathematical term for likelihood or chance?

________________________________________________.
C. Give the description of the following terms associated to probability, its
rational numbers and percent. (Item 1 is given as an example.)

Term Probability of … Rational Percent

Number

Certain the highest likelihood or 1 100%

chance to happen

Likely

Equally likely

Unlikely

Impossible

D. What is the difference between the sample space of an event and the
outcomes of an event? Relate your answer in the illustration below.

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 SPIN A WIN! Given: P (1-yellow)
P (2-green)
P (3-pink)
P (4-blue)
Questions:

1. Which color has the best chance to come up? Why?

__________________________________________.
2. Which color has the least chance to come up? Why?

__________________________________________.
3. Which colors have equal chances to come up? Why?

__________________________________________.

The term probability is not familiar to many but to the Mathematics

enthusiasts, it is easy. Probability is the mathematical term which means the
likelihood that an event or situation will happen or something will occur.
How do you describe probability?
Probability is a mathematical term for the likelihood that an event is
impossible to happen, unlikely to happen, equally likely to happen, likely to
happen, and certain to happen.
The term “probability” is synonymous to the term “likelihood”, while the
probability of “something” is considered the probability of “event”. That
“somethings” refer to “events” or “situations”.
Definition:

Probability is a branch of mathematics concerned with the measure of

the likelihood of the occurrence of a given event. It is denoted by “P”.

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 THE LINE OF PROBABILITY

impossible Equally likely certain

unlikely likely

0 1

0% 50% 100%

Theoretically, the probability of an event is the measure of the chance

that an event (one or more of the outcomes) in the sample space will occur.

The probability of an event, denoted by P(E), is a number between 0 and

1, inclusive. That the measures of the likelihood of an event were given
explanation below:

In principle, the probability of an event E, is the ratio of the number of

favorable outcomes over the total number of equally likely or possible
outcomes.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃 (𝐸 ) = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛(𝑆)

❖ If P(EA) > P(EB), then event A is more likely to occur than event
B. On the other hand, if P(EA) < P(EB), then event B is more likely
to occur than event A.

❖ If P(EA) = P(EB), then events A and B are equally likely to occur.

✔ An event with a probability of 1 can be considered as certain to

happen, meaning the event is 100% SURE to happen or known as
SURE EVENT.

Examples: a. 2 + 3 = 5 you will always get 5, the answer is certain.

b. 3 x 5 = 15 you will always get 15, the answer is certain.

20
c. =4 you will always get 4, the answer is certain.
5

1 1
d. +2=1 you will always get 1, the answer is certain.
2

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 ✔ An event with a probability of 0 can be considered as impossible to
happen, meaning the event is 0%, NO chance to happen or called
IMPOSSIBLE EVENT.

Examples: a. What is the chance that your dad will get pregnant?

b. What is the probability that a chicken egg is a pig?

Answer: These two events or situations a and b, will never happen. These
are impossible events and they have a probability of 0%.

✔ In number line, the probability of an event is between 0 to 1.

Examples: In tossing a coin twice, the possible outcomes are:

HH, HT, TT, TH. Notice that, upon listing, there are 4 possible
outcomes that occurred.
3
a. The probability that at least one head is 4 . (‘at least’ means minimum)
Solution: Notice that 3 (HH, TH, HT) out of 4 (HH, HT, TH, TT)
outcomes are having at least one head.
1
b. The probability that having the same head is 4.
Solution: Notice that 1 (HH) out of 4 (HH, HT, TH, TT)
outcomes is having the same head.
2 1
c. The probability that having one head is only or 2.
4
Solution: Notice that 2 (HT, TH) out of 4 (HH, HT, TH, TT)
outcomes are having one head only.
0
d. The probability that having more than 3 heads is 4 or 0.
Solution: Notice that 0 (No three heads) out of 4 (HH, HT, TH, TT)
outcomes is having three heads.
e. When you add the probability of an event that happened you have,
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4
HH = 4 , TT = 4 , HT = 4 , TH = 4 . Therefore, 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 4 or 1.

✔ In percent, the probability of an event is between 0% to 100%.

Example 1: Here are the following results in the above examples when
changed in percent:
a. 75% c. 50% e. 100%
b. 25% d. 0%

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DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE
Example 2: If it is 20% that it will rain today, the probability that it will NOT rain
today is 80%.
Solution: 100% - 20% = 80%

Favorable outcomes of an event:

A favorable outcome is the outcome or result that you are after for or
looking for when you do something. Considering a rolling six-sided die.

In this case, let’s say an event A, of rolling a number is greater than 3,

the possible outcomes of this random experiment are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Hence,

Therefore, the probability of an event A is denoted by:

𝑛(𝐴) 3 1
P(A) = = =
𝑛(𝑆) 6 2

Experimental Probability

The experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of

times the event occurs over the total number of performances or trials of the
experiment.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
𝑃 (𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑒

This formula is used to get the actual result of an experiment. And

noticed that it was derived from the formula of theoretical probability.

Sample Experiments:
A. Rolling of a six-sided fair die: The possible outcomes are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6} where the total number of sample space is 6.
B. Tossing a fair coin: The collection of all possible outcomes is {head, tail}
with 2 sample space.
C. Spinning a roulette: If there are 10 numbers or colors as sample space, the
collection of all possible outcomes is {1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} or {red,
orange, yellow, green, violet, indigo, blue, white, pink, brown}.

How do you perform the experimental probability of a simple event?

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Example 1: A group in a Math class consisting of four members conducted an
experiment. The teacher instructed them that each one of them should toss a
fair coin 20 times. The result of the outcome of this experiment is given below.

Student No. of Heads No. of Tails Total

A 12 8 20
B 11 9 20
C 9 11 20
D 8 12 20

A. Calculate the probability that heads showed up.

B. Calculate the probability that tails showed up.
C. What happens as you increase the number of tossing a fair coin?

A. Calculating the probability that heads showed up.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑
𝑃(𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑢𝑝) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑖𝑛
12 9
Student A: = 0.6 Student C: = 0.45
20 20
11 8
Student B: = 0.55 Student D: = 0.4
20 20

B. Calculating the probability that tails showed up.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑
𝑃 (𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑢𝑝) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑐𝑜𝑖𝑛
8 11
Student A: = 0.40 Student C: = 0.55
20 20
9 12
Student B: = 0.45 Student D: = 0.60
20 20

The summary of the experiment conducted by 4 students

Student No. of No. of 𝑃 (𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑢𝑝) 𝑃 (𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑑 𝑢𝑝)
heads tails
A 12 8 12 8
= 0.60 = 0.40
20
20
B 11 9 11 9
= 0.55 = 0.45
20 20
C 9 11 9 11
= 0.45 = 0.55
20 20
D 8 12 8 12
= 0.40 = 0.60
20 20

B. Notice that as the number of tosses of the coin increases, the probability
of occurrence of heads or tails approaches to its expected probability of
1 or 100%. Simply because the theoretical probability of tossing a fair

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 1
coin is 2 𝑜𝑟 0.5 and the sum of the probability of a head and a tail is 1.
Try to observe the sum of the experiment of heads and tails, equals 1.

Example 2: An experiment where you flip a fair coin 50 times.

The experimental probability of getting tails in 50 trials you made is 44%.
What do you think is the probability of getting heads in 50 trials?
Solution: Tails in 50 trial = 44% = 22 times tails occurred

+ Heads in 50 trials = 56% = 28 times heads occurred

Total = 100% = 50 trials made

What’s More

Answer the following questions:

1. Because of the weather condition, the local weather forecaster announced
that there is 70% chance of rain tomorrow morning. What is the probability
that it will NOT rain tomorrow morning?
2. In number 1, what word is synonymous to ‘chance’?
3. A fair coin is flipped once, list all the possible outcomes that will occur.
4. A fair coin is tossed twice, list all the possible outcomes that will appear.
5. In a fair coin, how many is the sample space?
6. In numbers 3 and 4, what two words are synonymous to flip and occur?
7. In a fair of die, list all the possible outcomes that will occur.
8. In a fair of die, how many is the sample space?
9. When head occurs in tossing a coin, the probability is ____ and when tail
occurs, the probability is ____. When you add the two probability of tossing
a coin the sum is ____ or ____ %. It means that theoretically or
mathematically, the event is certain to happen.
10. In rolling a fair of die, show the probability that an event is certain to
happen. (Hint: Add the probability of an event)

What I Have Learned

A. Complete the sentence by filling in the appropriate term/s in the blank.

1. __________ is a branch of mathematics concerned with the measure of

the likelihood of the occurrence of a given event. It is denoted by “P”.

2. The probability of “something” is considered the probability of a/an

“__________”.

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DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE
 3. __________ is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs over the
total number of trials of the experiment.

4. The formula to get the actual results of an experiment is __________.

5. A __________ is the outcome or result that you are after for or looking
for when you do something.

6. A fair die is rolled 10 times and the frequencies of the scores are given
below. Find the probability of each outcome and get their sum.

What I Can Do

PERFORMANCE TASK

Goal: Create and design a roulette with 5 different colors

of your own preference. Use a half folder with a diameter of 8.5
inches.

Use the roulette and demonstrate the concepts of experimental

probability.

Role: Conduct and perform the experiment using the roulette.

Audience: Any members of the family.

Situation: Let 3 members of your family including you spin the roulette for
10 times.

Product, Performance, and Purpose: Create and design a roulette with 5

different colors using a half folder with a diameter of 8.5 inches
and perform/demonstrate the experimental probability.

Rubrics
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 Description/Score 4 3 2 1
Neatness The task The task The task The task
was was was good was not
incredibly incredibly with several organized,
neat, neat, erasures neat and
organized, organized, and errors. there are
and with few several
presentable. erasures erasures
and errors. and errors.
Completion Completed Completed Completed Did not
all the most of the some of the complete
assigned assigned assigned the task.
tasks. tasks. tasks.
Timeliness The task The task The task The task
was was was was
submitted submitted submitted submitted
on time. one day two days days after
after the after the the due
due date. due date. date.
Work Performance All steps Most steps Some steps Did not
and and and perform
instructions instructions instructions any step or
were were were instruction.
performed. performed. performed.

Assessment
Encircle the letter of the correct answer

1. It is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs over the total
number of trials of the experiment.
A. Experimental Probability C. Sample Space
B. Favorable Outcomes D. Theoretical Probability
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
2. The formula 𝑃 (𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = is for ______
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑒

A. Experimental Probability C. Sample Space

B. Favorable Outcomes D. Theoretical Probability

3. A ______ is the outcome or result that you are after for or looking
for when you do something.
A. Experimental Probability C. Sample Space
B. Favorable Outcomes D. Theoretical Probability

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DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE
For item numbers 4 - 5. Think, perform and solve.
4. A fair die is rolled 50 times and the frequencies of the scores are
given below. Find the probability of each outcome and get their sum.

5. Two brothers went to a mall game house and played a roulette with 5
equally likely colors of yellow, green, blue, white, red, and orange. If one
brother spun the roulette 30 times and the other one did it for 30 times
as well, find the probability of their combined spun by completing the
table.

Additional Activities

A. Draw the line of probability and label its part (10 points).

B. Explain each label of likelihood in the “Line of Probability” in the

diagram. (Write your answers on your notebook)

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 References

Retrieved from https://byjus.com/maths/experimental-probability/

Answer Key

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 SUMMATIVE TEST

Directions: Read, think, and encircle the letter of the correct answer.

1. It is known as the measure of how certain an outcome of a particular

experiment is.
A. activity B. event C. outcome D. probability
2. If a certain event will surely happen, what percent is this in Mathematics?
A. 100% B. 50% C. 25% D. 0%
3. If the news of a weather forecaster informs the viewers that the rain is
equally likely to happen tomorrow, what percent is this in Mathematics?
A. 0% B. 25% C. 50% D. 100%

For item numbers 4–7

In tossing a coin twice, the possible outcomes are: HH, HT, TT, TH.
Notice that upon listing, there are 4 possible outcomes that occurred.
4. What is the probability of having a head?
1 1 3 4
A. B. C. D.
4 2 4 5
5. What is the probability of having the same head?
1 1 3 4
A. 4 B. 2 C. 4 D. 5
6. What is the probability of having 3 tails?
A. 0% B. 50% C. 75% D. 100%
7. What is the sum of the probability of the occurrence?
1 3
A. B. C. 1 D. 2
2 4
8. Which of the following are outcomes of a fair die?
A. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} C. {1, 2, 3, 4,…}
B. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} D. {1, 2, 3}
9. What is the total number of sample space of a 5-peso coin?
A. 6 B. 4 C. 3 D. 2
11. If it is 40% that it will rain today, what is the probability that it will NOT
rain?
A. 40% B. 50% C. 60% D. 100%

For item numbers 11-17. Fill in the blank.

12. The probability of an event E, which is denoted by P(E), is a number
between ____ and ____, inclusive.
12. An event with a probability of 1 is considered ________ to happen,
meaning the event is 100% sure to happen.
13. An event with a probability of 0 is considered ________ to happen,
meaning the event is 0% and NO chance to happen.
14. The formula to get the actual results of an experiment is ________.

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DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE
 15. ________ is the ratio of the number of times an event occurs over the
total number of trials of the experiment.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
16. The formula 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑒 is for ________.

17. A ________ is the outcome or result that you are after for or looking
for when you do something.

For item numbers 18-19. Think, perform and solve.

18. A fair die is rolled 50 times and the frequencies of the scores are
given below. Find the probability of each outcome and get their sum.

19. Two brothers went to a mall game house and played a roulette with 5
equally likely colors of yellow, green, blue, white, red, and orange. If one
brother spun the roulette 30 times and the other one did it for 30 times
as well, find the probability of their combined spun by completing the
table.

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DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE
 Development Team of the Module
Writer: Dominador J. Villafria
Editor: Christlie Rose R. Nicolas (SRNHS)
Jeany Vie O. Crusis (MES)
Language Validator: Shiela Mae A. Lauson (SRNHS)
Internal Reviewer: Dominador J. Villafria, EPS -Mathematics
Layout Artist: Joel J. Estudillo

Management Team:
Sheryll T. Gayola
Assistant Schools Division Superintendent
OIC, Office of the Schools Division Superintendent

Elisa O. Cerveza
Chief, CID
OIC, Office of the Assistant Schools Division Superintendent

Dominador J. Villafria
Education Program Supervisor-Mathematics

Ivy Coney A. Gamatero

Education Program Supervisor– LRMS

For inquiries or feedback, please write or call:

Schools Division Office- Marikina City

Email Address: [email protected]

191 Shoe Ave., Sta. Elena, Marikina City, 1800, Philippines

Telefax: (02) 682-2472 / 682-3989

DISCIPLINE • GOOD TASTE • EXCELLENCE