McKinsey Explainers

What is quantum
computing?
Quantum computing is a new approach to calculation
that uses principles of fundamental physics to solve
extremely complex problems very quickly.

April 2024
Flip a coin. Heads or tails, right? Sure, once we see Additionally, qubits can interact with one another.
how the coin lands. But while the coin is still spinning This is known as entanglement. Entanglement
in the air, it’s neither heads nor tails. It’s some allows qubits to scale exponentially; two qubits, for
probability of both. example, can store and process four bits of
information, three can process eight, and so on. This
This gray area is the simplified foundation of exponential scaling gives the quantum computer
quantum computing. much more power than classical computers.

Digital computers have been making it easier for Heavyweight tech organizations are already placing
us to process information for decades. But quantum bets on quantum technology. In 2019, Google
computers are poised to take computing to a claimed that its quantum computer had solved in
whole new level. Quantum computers represent just 200 seconds a problem that would have
a completely new approach to computing. They taken a classical computer 10,000 years (although
have the potential to solve very complex statistical other tech organizations and academics
problems that are beyond the limits of today’s have surfaced doubts about the validity of
computers. Quantum computing has so much Google’s claim).
promise and momentum that McKinsey has identified
it as one of the next big trends in tech. Quantum Even if Google’s claim was accurate, the achievement
computing alone—just one of three main areas of was more of a theoretical leap forward than a
emerging quantum technology—could account practical one since the problem its quantum computer
for nearly $1.3 trillion in value by 2035. Investors of solved had no real-world use. But we’re rapidly
all kinds are perking up their ears—and opening approaching a time when quantum computers will
up their wallets: government investors alone have have a real impact on our lives.
pledged $34 billion in investments. In 2022, the
US government announced $1.8 billion in funding,
bringing its total investment to $3.7 billion. What are quantum computers used for?
Today’s classical computers are relatively straight­
Learn more about McKinsey Digital. forward. They work with a limited set of inputs and
use an algorithm and spit out an answer—and the
bits that encode the inputs do not share information
How does a quantum computer work? about one another. Quantum computers are
Here’s how quantum computing works: classical different. For one thing, when data are input into
computing, the technology that powers your laptop the qubits, the qubits interact with other qubits,
and smartphone, is built on bits. A bit is a unit of allowing for many different calculations to be done
information that can store either a zero or a one. By simultaneously. This is why quantum computers are
contrast, quantum computing is built on quantum able to work so much faster than classical computers.
bits, or qubits, which can store zeros and ones. Qubits But that’s not the end of the story: quantum
can represent any combination of both zero and computers don’t deliver just one clear answer like
one simultaneously—this is called superposition, classical computers do; rather, they deliver a
and it is a basic feature of any quantum state. range of possible answers.
Chips are the physical hardware that store qubits,
just like in classical computing. For calculations that are limited in scope, classical
computers are still the preferred tools. But for
When a classical computer solves a problem with very complex problems, quantum computers can
multiple variables, it must conduct a new calculation save time by narrowing down the range of
every time a variable changes. Each calculation is possible answers.
a single path to a single result. Quantum computers,
however, can explore many paths in parallel
through superposition.

What is quantum computing? 2

When will quantum computers can be lost or altered, throwing off the accuracy of
be available? the results. Another obstacle to development is that
Over the next few years, the major players in a quantum computer operating at the scale needed
quantum computing, as well as a small cohort of to deliver significant breakthroughs will require
start-ups, will steadily increase the number of potentially millions of qubits to be connected. The
qubits that their computers can handle and improve few quantum computers that exist today are
how the technology functions. Progress in quantum nowhere near that number.
computing, however, is expected to remain slow.
According to our conversations with tech executives, Here are some other challenges facing the
investors, and academics in quantum computing, technologies that could support quantum
72 percent believe we’ll see a fully fault-tolerant computing at scale:
quantum computer by 2035. The remaining
28 percent think this milestone won’t be reached — High-fidelity two-qubit gates at scale.
until 2040 or later. Maintaining high fidelity (meaning accuracy and
reliability greater than 99.99 percent) is
But some businesses will begin to derive value required for fault-tolerant quantum computers.
from quantum well before then. At first, businesses Doing so at scale will be difficult.
will receive quantum services via the cloud.
Several major computing companies have already — Speed. Qubits need to retain their quantum state
announced their quantum cloud offerings. to be able to interact with one another. Even
in specific environmental conditions, they will
Learn more about McKinsey Digital. eventually degrade. For quantum computers
to operate at scale, gate operations will need to
move very quickly to complete computations
before qubits degrade.
What are some obstacles that
impede the development of
— Multiqubit networking. Connecting, or network­
quantum computing? ing, qubits to one another could theoretically
One major obstacle to the advancement of quantum make quantum computers much more powerful.
computing is that qubits are volatile. Whereas a bit The key challenge here is connecting qubits
in today’s classical computers is in a state of either across chips, or from one physical quantum
one or zero, a qubit can be any possible combination computer to another.
of the two. When a qubit changes its status, inputs

Seventy-two percent of tech executives,

investors, and academics believe we’ll see
a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer
by 2035; 28 percent think this milestone
won’t be reached until 2040 or later.

What is quantum computing? 3

— Individual qubit control at scale. The control of today’s computers to provide accurate
individual qubits becomes increasingly complex simulations, because each atom interacts with
as the number of qubits increases. other atoms in complex ways. But experts
believe that quantum computers are powerful
— Cooling power and environmental control. As enough to eventually be able to model even
quantum computers become larger, the size and the most complex molecules in the human
power requirements of the cooling equipment body. This opens up the possibility for faster
become more and more expensive, from both a development of new drugs and new,
cost and an environmental standpoint. Currently, transformative cures.
powering a quantum computer large enough
to connect millions of qubits is cost prohibitive. 2. Optimization and search. Every industry relies
in one way or another on optimization. Where
— Manufacturability. Producing large numbers of are robots best placed on a factory floor? What’s
quantum computers will require automating the shortest route for a company’s delivery
both the manufacturing and testing processes. trucks? There are almost infinite questions that
The production of certain quantum computers need to be answered to optimize for efficiency
may require developing entirely new and value creation. With classical computing,
manufacturing techniques. companies must make one complicated
calculation after another, which can be a time-
consuming and costly process given the many
How can classical computers and potential variables of a situation. Since a
quantum computers work together? quantum computer is able to work with multiple
variables simultaneously, it can be used to
Slowly, at first. Initially, quantum computing will be
quickly narrow the range of possible answers.
used alongside classical computing to solve
From there, classical computing can be used
multivariable problems. One example? Quantum
to zero in on one precise answer.
computers can narrow the range of possible
solutions to a finance or logistics problem, helping
3. Quantum AI. Quantum computers have the
a company reach the best solution faster. This
potential to work with better algorithms that
kind of slower progress will be the norm until
could transform machine learning across a
quantum computing advances enough to deliver
diverse range of industries, from automotive to
more significant breakthroughs.
pharmaceuticals. In particular, quantum
computers could accelerate the arrival of self-
Learn more about McKinsey Digital.
driving vehicles. Companies like Ford, GM,
Volkswagen, and numerous mobility start-ups
are running video and image data through
What are some potential business use
complex neural networks. Their goal? To use
cases for quantum computers?
AI to teach a car to make crucial driving decisions.
Quantum computers have four fundamental Quantum computers’ ability to perform multiple
capabilities that differentiate them from today’s complex calculations with many variables
classical computers: simultaneously allows for faster training of such
AI systems.
1. Quantum simulation. Quantum computers can
model complex molecules, which may eventually 4. Prime factorization. Businesses today use
help reduce development time for chemical and large, complex prime numbers as the basis for
pharmaceutical companies. Scientists looking to their encryption efforts, numbers too large
develop new drugs need to examine the structure for classical computers to process. Quantum
of a molecule to understand how it will interact computing will be able to use algorithms to
with other molecules. It’s almost impossible for solve these complex prime numbers easily, a

What is quantum computing? 4

Quantum computing could result
in a mobility ecosystem that
is fully connected, intelligent, and
environmentally friendly.

process called prime factorization. (In fact, a — Chemicals. Quantum computing could be
quantum algorithm known as Shor’s algorithm used to improve catalyst design, which could
theoretically already can; there’s just not a enable savings on existing production
computer powerful enough to run it.) Once processes. Innovative catalysts could also
quantum computers have advanced enough, enable the replacement of petrochemicals
new quantum-encryption technologies will with more sustainable feedstock or the
be needed to protect online services. Scientists breakdown of carbon for CO₂ usage. (Read
are already at work on quantum cryptography more on how quantum computing might
to prepare for this eventuality. McKinsey affect the chemicals industry.)
estimates quantum computers will be powerful
enough for prime factorization by the late — Mobility. Quantum computing could result
2020s at the very earliest. in a mobility ecosystem that is fully connected,
intelligent, and environmentally friendly.
As these capabilities develop at pace with quantum Changes depend on the rapid and smooth
computing power, use cases will proliferate. exchange of vast amounts of data between
in-vehicle computers and computers elsewhere.
Quantum computers can process these
What industries stand to benefit the large amounts of data in ways existing computers
most from quantum computing? can’t, making this type of data exchange
a realistic possibility. (Read more about how
Research suggests that several industries in par­
quantum technologies could affect the
ticular stand to reap the greatest short-term benefits
mobility industry.)
from quantum computing based on the use cases
discussed in the previous section. Collectively—and
— Automotive. Within the mobility sector, the
conservatively—the value at stake for these
automotive industry could benefit from quantum
industries could be in the trillions of dollars.
computing in its R&D, product design, supply
chain management, production, and mobility
— Pharmaceuticals. Quantum computing has
and traffic management. For example, quantum
the potential to revolutionize the research and
computing could be applied to decrease
development of molecular structures in the
manufacturing costs by optimizing complex
biopharmaceuticals industry. With quantum
multirobot processes including welding,
technologies, research and development
gluing, and painting. (Read more about how
for drugs could become less reliant on trial and
quantum technologies could affect the
error, and therefore more efficient. (Read more
automotive industry.)
on how quantum computing stands to affect the
pharmaceutical industry.)

What is quantum computing? 5

— Finance. Quantum computing use cases in different calculations from the same problem)
finance are slightly further in the future. and blind quantum computing (where quantum
The long-term promise of quantum computing in communications provide access to remote,
finance lies in portfolio and risk management. large-scale quantum computers in the cloud).
One example could be quantum-optimized loan Both types of processing are made possible by
portfolios that focus on collateral to allow the entanglement of quantum particles.
lenders to improve their offerings. By the time Entanglement is when quantum particles like
a fault-tolerant quantum computer is available, qubits have connected properties, which
we estimate that the use cases in finance means one particle’s properties can be manip­
could create $622 billion in value. (Read more ulated by actions done to another.
about how quantum computing could affect
financial services.) Quantum sensing allows for more accurate measure­
ments than ever before, including of physical
These five industries likely stand to gain the most properties like temperature, magnetic fields, and
from quantum computing, at least at first. But rotation. Plus, once optimized and decreased in
leaders in every sector can—and should—prepare size, quantum sensors will be able to measure data
for the inevitable quantum advancements of the that can’t be captured by current sensors.
coming years.
The markets for QComms and QS are currently
Learn more about McKinsey Digital. smaller than the market for quantum computing,
which has so far attracted most of the headlines
and funding. But McKinsey expects both Qcomms
What are the other quantum and QS to attract serious interest and funding
technologies aside from computing? in the future. The risks are significant, but the
potential payoff is high: by 2030, QS and QComms
According to McKinsey’s analysis, quantum
could generate $13 billion in revenues.
computing is still years away from widespread
commercial application. Other quantum
Learn more about quantum sensors and
technologies such as quantum communication
quantum communications.
(QComms) and quantum sensing (QS) could
become available much earlier.

Quantum communication will enable strong How can organizations ensure that
encryption protocols that could greatly increase they have the quantum computing
the security of sensitive information. QComms can talent they need?
help facilitate the following functions: A wide talent gap exists between the business
need for quantum computing and the number of
— Full security when information is transferred quantum professionals available to meet that
between locations. Quantum-encryption need. This skills gap could jeopardize potential
protocols are more secure than classical value creation, which McKinsey estimates to
protocols, most of which will likely be able to be be as much as $1.3 trillion.
broken once quantum computers attain
more computing power or can work with more The talent gap is felt differently by companies of
efficient algorithms. different sizes. Small start-ups working in the
quantum space typically grow out of university
— Enhanced quantum computing power in two research labs and often have direct access to
important types of quantum processing: parallel skilled candidates. Larger companies might have
quantum processing (where multiple processors less of a connection to these talent pools.
are connected and simultaneously execute

What is quantum computing? 6

McKinsey research has found that there is only one basic understanding of how it works and what it
qualified quantum candidate for every three quantum can do. With quantum, business leaders as well
job openings. By 2025, McKinsey predicts that less as workers up and down the supply chain, in
than 50 percent of quantum jobs will be filled unless marketing, IT infrastructure, finance, and more
there are significant changes to the talent pool or will require basic fluency in quantum topics.
predicted rate of quantum-job creation.
5. Don’t forget talent development strategies.
Here are five lessons derived from the AI talent Companies focus heavily on talent attraction
journey that can help organizations build the during times of technological foment, but that’s
quantum talent they need to capture value: just one piece of the talent puzzle. To retain
specialists, companies need to carve out clear
— Define your talent needs clearly. In the early paths for talent development. One pharmaceutical
days of AI, some organizations hired data company leans into both the purpose of its
scientists without a clear understanding of what work—developing use cases that will help save
skills were needed. To avoid making the same lives—and the freedom it offers its team.
error with quantum, organizations should first
identify possible fields of applications that a Learn more about McKinsey Digital and check out
quantum computing team would work on and quantum computing job opportunities if you’re
then ensure that new hires come from diverse interested in working at McKinsey.
backgrounds (reflecting best practices).
Articles referenced:
— Invest early in translators. As buzz built up
around AI, the role of analytics translators — “Quantum technology use cases as fuel for value
became crucial to helping leaders identify and in finance,” October 23, 2023, Martina
prioritize challenges best suited for AI to Gschwendtner, Nicole Morgan, Henning Soller
solve. With quantum, there’s a similar need:
for translators with engineering, application, — “Gearing up for mobility’s future with quantum
and scientific backgrounds who can help computing,” September 13, 2023, Scarlett Gao,
organizations understand the opportunities and Timo Möller, Niko Mohr, Alexia Pastré,
players in the rapidly expanding ecosystem. Felix Ziegler

— Create pathways for a diverse talent pipeline. — “Is winter coming? Quantum computing’s
Many of the first AI models reflected the same trajectory in the years ahead,” May 19, 2023,
biases that were present in the information that Scarlett Gao, Martina Gschwendtner, Hussein
was used to train them. There often was also Hijazi, Nicole Morgan, Henning Soller
a lack of people with diverse perspectives and
experience building and testing the models, — “Quantum technology sees record investments,
which contributed to the bias issue. While it’s too progress on talent gap,” April 24, 2023, Michael
early to know all the risks that could emerge Bogobowicz, Scarlett Gao, Mateusz Masiowski,
from quantum, we can expect similar challenges Niko Mohr, Henning Soller, Rodney Zemmel,
if a diverse and empowered quantum workforce Matija Zesko
is not in place to work with this new technology.
Efforts are needed at the university level, as well — “Five lessons from AI on closing quantum’s talent
as in K–12 education. gap—before it’s too late,” December 1, 2022,
Niko Mohr, Kiera Peltz, Rodney Zemmel, and
— Build technology literacy for all. For employees Matija Zesko
at all levels of an organization to understand
the potential of a new technology, they need a

What is quantum computing? 7

 — “From basic research to market: Why the recent — “Pharma’s digital Rx: Quantum computing in drug
Find more content like this on the
Nobel Prize in physics matters,” October 18, 2022, research and development,” June 18, 2021,
McKinsey Insights App
Mena Issler, Niko Mohr, and Henning Soller Matthias Evers, Anna Heid, and Ivan Ostojic

— “Quantum computing funding remains strong, — “The current state of quantum computing:
but talent gap raises concern,” June 15, 2022, Between hype and revolution,” February 19, 2021,
Mateusz Masiowski, Niko Mohr, Henning Soller, Lorenzo Pautasso, Anika Pflanzer, and
and Matija Zesko Henning Soller

— “How quantum computing can help tackle global — “How quantum computing could change financial
Scan • Download • Personalize
warming,” May 27, 2022, Jeremy O’Brien services,” December 18, 2020, Miklós Dietz,
Nico Henke, Jared Moon, Jens Backes, Lorenzo
— “Quantum computing just might save the planet,” Pautasso, and Zaheen Sadeque
May 19, 2022, Peter Cooper, Philipp Ernst,
Dieter Kiewell, and Dickon Pinner — “Will quantum computing drive the automotive
future?,” September 2, 2020, Ondrej Burkacky,
— “Shaping the long race in quantum communication Niko Mohr, and Lorenzo Pautasso
and quantum sensing,” December 21, 2021,
Gaurav Batra, Martina Gschwendtner, Ivan — “A game plan for quantum computing,” McKinsey
Ostojic, Andrea Queirolo, Henning Soller, and Quarterly, February 6, 2020, Alexandre Ménard,
Linde Wester Ivan Ostojic, Mark Patel, and Daniel Volz

— “A quantum wake-up call for European CEOs,” — “The next big thing? Quantum computing’s
December 20, 2021, Anika Pfalnzer, Wolf potential impact on chemicals,” July 12, 2019,
Richter, and Henning Soller Florian Budde and Daniel Volz

— “Quantum computing use cases are getting real— This article was updated in April 2024; it was
what you need to know,” December 14, 2021, originally published in May 2023.
Matteo Biondi, Anna Heid, Nicolaus Henke, Niko
Mohr, Lorenzo Pautasso, Ivan Ostojic, Linde
Wester, and Rodney Zemmel

— “Separating the wheat from the chaff: Quantum

technology in an era of hype,” July 1, 2021, Victor
Galitski, Dmitry Green, Benjamin Lev, Yuval
Oreg, and Henning Soller

Get to know and directly engage with senior McKinsey experts

on quantum computing
Ondrej Burkacky is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Munich office, Miklós Gábor Dietz is a senior partner in
the Vancouver office, Dieter Kiewell and Jared Moon are senior partners in the London office, Alexandre
Ménard is a senior partner in the Paris office, Mark Patel is a senior partner in the Bay Area office, and
Rodney Zemmel is a senior partner in the New York office.

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What is quantum computing? 8