Statistics and

EXPECTATION
SENIOR
HIGH
Probability
Lesson 5: Mean and Variance of Discrete Random Variable
SCHOOL
Learning Objective:
At the end of the lesson, learners are expected to interpret
mean and variance of discrete random variable.

Mean and Variance of Discrete SLM

Random Variable 5
Quarter 1

PRETEST

Directions: Given below is the histogram of a probability distribution of

discrete random variable X. Examine the graph and answer the following.

Probability of X Histogram
0,3
0,2
P(X)
0,1
0
0 1 2 3 4
Values of X

a. Does the graph represent a probability distribution? Explain your

answer.
b. Estimate the mean. Explain your answer.
c. Compute the actual mean.
d. Tell whether the distribution has a small or large variance. Explain your
answer.
e. Compute the actual variance and standard deviation.

RECAP

In the last lesson you have learned how to compute for the mean and
variance of a discrete random variable. Let us recall the steps on how to
compute the mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
To compute for the mean of a discrete random variable:
Step 1. Construct the probability distribution of the discrete random
variable.
Step 2. Multiply the value of the discrete random variable to its
corresponding probability.
Step 3. Get the summation of the products of the squared value of the
random variable and its probability.

𝝁 = ∑[(𝑋) • 𝑃(𝑋)]

To compute for the variance and standard deviation:

Step 1. Find the mean of the discrete random variable.
Step 2. Square each value of the discrete random variable.
Step 3. Multiply the squared value of the discrete random variable to its
corresponding probability, then find the summation of the products. Step
4. Use the formula to find the variance.

𝜎2 = ∑ [ 𝑋2 • 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2
Step 5. Find the standard deviation by getting the square root of the
variance.

𝜎2 = √∑ [ 𝑋2 • 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

LESSON
Mean is a measure of central tendency (measure of location) than
balances the distribution. To physically interpret that, let us take a look at
the histogram of our previous example.

Histogram
50,00%
Probability
37,50%

25,00%

12,50%

0,00%
0 1 2 3 More
Z- number of persons who tested positive

The histogram above shows the probability distribution when 3 persons

are tested for COVID-19 and Z represents the number of persons who
tested positive. From the graph, the probability that none of the three
persons tested positive is 0.125 or that is 12.5%, the probability that 1 of
the 3 tested positive is 0.375 or 37.5%, the probability that 2 tested
positive is
0.375 or 37.5% and the probability that all 3 tested positive is 0.125 or
12.5%. Imagine the bars in the graph to be like woods and the horizontal
axis is a seesaw, the seesaw will only be balance at point 1.5, which is the
mean of the distribution. The mean is a value that acts like the middle of
the seesaw so that the left and right side of the distribution will be equal.

Histogram
 50,00%

37,50%

Probability 25,00%

12,50%

0,00%
0 1 1.5 2 3 More

mean

Mean of a discrete random variable is also known as the Expected Value.

Events that are repeated many times like tossing a fair coin, rolling a die,
betting in a lotto game and the likes will produce the same average or the
expected average outcome over many observations.

Example 1.

Find the expected outcome when a die is rolled many times.

To find the expected outcome or mean:

Step 1. Construct the probability distribution.

Outcomes 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

Step 2. Multiply the value of the random variable to its corresponding

probability.
Outcomes 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
(1)(1/6) (2)(1/6) (3)(1/6) (4)(1/6) (5)(1/6) (6)(1/6)
Product 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6

Step 3. Find the summation of the products of the values of the random
variable and the probabilities.
1 2 3 4 5 6 21
∑[(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒) • 𝑃(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒)] = ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) = = 3.5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6

When a die is rolled repeatedly the expected outcome is 3.5.

Let us look at the histogram of this event.

Histogram
0,18
Probability
0,16
0,14
0,12
0,1
0,08
0,06
0,04
0,02
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Outcomes

The distribution is balance at point 3.5 which is the mean or expected

value.

Note: 1/6 is approximately equal to 0.166667

Example 2

Gabriel is planning to play an online game where it is possible for him to

lose Php 2,000, break even, win Php 1,000 and win Php 5,000. Find the
expected outcome if he plays and will the odd be at his favor. The
probability distribution for each outcome is given in the table below:
Outcome -2,000 0 1,000 5,000
Probability 0.30 0.400 0.20 0.10

To find the mean, the first step is to construct the probability

distribution which is already given above, we proceed to step 2.

Step 2. Multiply the value of the random variable to its corresponding

probability.

Outcome -2,000 0 1,000 5,000

Probability 0.30 0.400 0.20 0.10

(-2000) (0)(0.40) (1000) (5000)(0.10)
Product (0.30) - 600 0 (0.20) 200 500

Step 3. Find the summation of the products of the values of the random
variable and the probabilities.

∑[(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒) • 𝑃(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒)] = (−600) + (0) + (200) + (500) = 100

Gabriel is expected to win Php 100 after repeatedly playing the game,
the odds are in his favor.

If mean is a measure of location, variance on the other hand, is a measure

of spread. It is not only important to locate the point where the distribution
will be balanced, we also have to consider if the data in the set are spread
out. Let us consider the examples below, random variable X and Y both
have a mean of 0.

Probability Distribution of X
Values of
X -2 -1 0 1 2
P (X) 1/10 2/10 4/10 2/10 1/10

X * P(X) (-2)(1/10) (-1)(2/10) (0)(4/10) (1)(10) (2)(1/10)

-2/10 -2/10 0 2/10 2/10

(mean)
Probability Distribution of Y
Values of Y -3 3
P (Y) 1/2 1/2
Y * P(Y) (-3)(1/2) -3/2 (3)(1/2) 3/2

(mean)
If we are to compare these two distributions base on the mean, we will say
that they do not differ from each other since they have the same mean,
but is that really the case? To answer that question let us examine the
histogram of the two discrete random variables.
Below you can see that the values of X are close to each other and to the
mean, while the values of Y are far apart and are spread out from the
mean.
 Histogram Histogram
PROBABILITY OF X

Probability of Y
0,5 0,6
0,4 0,5
0,3 0,4
0,3
0,2 0,2
0,1 0,1
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
VALUES OF X Values of Y

Let us get the variance and standard deviation to check if our observation
is correct.

X P(X) X•P(X) X2 X2•P(X)

𝝈𝟐 = ∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] − 𝝁𝟐
-2 0.1 -0.2 4 0.4

𝝈 = 1.2 − (0)2
-1 0.2 -0.2 1 0.2
𝟐

𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟐 (variance)
0 0.4 0 0 0
𝟐

𝝈=
1 0.2 0.2 1 0.2

𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟏 (standard
2 0.1 0.2 4 0.4

deviation)

∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] = (𝟎. 𝟒) + (𝟎. 𝟐) + (𝟎) + (𝟎. 𝟐) + (𝟎. 𝟒) = 𝟏. 𝟐

𝝈𝟐 = Y P(Y) Y•P(Y) Y2 Y2•P(Y) ∑[𝒀𝟐 • 𝑷(𝒀)] − 𝝁𝟐

-3 0.5 -1.5 9 4.5 𝝈𝟐 = 9 − (0)2

3 0.5 1.5 9 4.5

𝝈𝟐 = 𝟗 (variance)

𝝈=
𝝈 = 𝟑 (standard deviation)

∑[𝒀𝟐 • 𝑷(𝒀)] = (𝟒. 𝟓) + (𝟒. 𝟓) = 𝟗

The variance and standard deviation of random variable X is smaller than

the variance and standard deviation of Y, this means that random variable
X have less variability than Y, and in Statistics the less variability or the
less spread of the data are in the set the better.

Example 3

In a factory, a certain part of a car is being produced, the target number of

parts that should be produced in a day is 100. The quality control officer
checks and records all parts that are produced in a day. The data for a
20day production are shown on the table below. Find the average number
of parts produced in 20 days. Did they meet the target number of parts
that should be produced in a day? Determine the variance and standard
deviation and tell if there is a big difference between the average number
of parts produced to the number of parts produced daily in 20 days.

102 100 98 100 101 102 102 100 99 102

98 102 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 101
To find the mean or the expected value:
Step 1. Construct the probability distribution.

Number of Parts Probability

98 2/20
99 2/20
100 9/20
101 2/20
102 5/20

Step 2. Multiply each value of the random variable to its corresponding

probability.
X- Number of Parts Probability P(X) X * P(X)
98 2/20 196/20
99 2/20 198/20
100 9/20 900/20
101 2/20 202/20
 102 5/20 510/20

Step 3. Get the summation of the product.

𝟏𝟎𝟎. 𝟑
The average number of parts that they have produced in 20 days is 100.3
parts or at least 101. They have met the target number of parts that
should be produced in a day, since the target number of parts that they
need to produce in a day is only 100 and they were able to produce an
average of 101 parts a day in 20 days.

To find the variance and standard deviation, first we have to find the
mean, which we already computed,100.3. Step 2. Square each value of
the random variable.

X- Number of Probability P(X) X * P(X) X2

Parts
98 2/20 196/20 9604
99 2/20 198/20 9801
100 9/20 900/20 10000
101 2/20 202/20 10201
102 5/20 510/20 10404

Step 3. Multiply the squared value of the random variable to its

corresponding probability then get the summation of the products.

X- Number of X2
•
Parts Probability X • P(X) X2 P(X)
P(X)
98 2/20 196/20 9604 19208/20
99 2/20 198/20 9801 19602/20
100 9/20 900/20 10000 90000/20
101 2/20 202/20 10201 20402/20
102 5/20 510/20 10404 52020/20

𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟏. 𝟔

Step 4. Apply the formula in finding the variance:

 𝝈𝟐 = ∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] − 𝝁𝟐
𝝈𝟐 = 10061.6 − (100.3)2
𝝈𝟐 = 10061.6 − 10060.09
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟏. 𝟓𝟏

Step 5. Find the standard deviation by getting the square root of the
variance.

𝝈 = √∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] − 𝝁𝟐
𝝈=
𝝈 = 1.2288
𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟑

The variance of the distribution is 1.51 and the standard deviation is

1.23. The variance and standard deviation are both small numbers which
indicates that the number of parts produced per day in 20 days are less
disperse and that the average which is 100.3 parts do not differ or is very
close from the number of parts produced per day in 20 days.

ACTIVITIES

ACTIVITY 1: PRACTICE

Directions: Examine each histogram, then answer the following

questions. a. Does the graph represent a probability distribution? Explain
your answer.
b. Estimate the mean. Explain your answer.
c. Compute the actual mean.
d. Tell whether the distribution has a small or large variance. Explain your
answer
e. Compute the actual variance and standard deviation.
1.

Histogram
Probability
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
98 99 100 101 102
X - discrete random variable

2.

Probability of Y Histogram
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
-3-2-1 01234
Values of Y

WRAP – UP

Mean is a measure of central tendency (measure of location) than

balances the distribution. It is like the point at the middle of the seesaw so
that the left and right side of the distribution are equal.

Mean of a discrete random variable is also known as the Expected Value or

the expected average outcome over many observations.

Variance and Standard Deviation are measures of variability or

measures of spread. It is not only important to locate the point where the
distribution will be balance, because two different random variables may
have the same mean but have different distribution, since one can be less
dispersed than the other. The variance and standard deviation will tell us if
the data in a given set are close to each other and if the data are close to
the mean. In Statistics, the smaller the variance the better.

VALUING

Mean will balance a statistical distribution while Variance is the squared

difference from the mean.

As a student who is now living in the new normal, you should know how to
balance your schedule or time in studying all your different subjects since
you are now more independent and have more freedom when it comes to
doing school works online. Everything now is different from what we used
to do, but we should learn how to adjust to this new normal and let us all
continue to live our lives and pray that this too
shall pass.

POSTTEST

I. Directions: Write True if the statement is true and write the correct
statement if the underlined phrase is false.

__________________ 1. If Y is a random variable that represents the number

of cars sold, then to construct the histogram, the values of Y will lie on the
xaxis.
__________________ 2. A small variance means that the distribution is
disperse.
__________________ 3. Mean is a measure of variability.

__________________ 4. If the variance is 4, then the standard deviation is 2.

__________________ 5. If the variance is equal to zero, then all the values of

the random variable are zero.