Chapter 4

Probability

4.1 I ntroduction
Statistical inference is the process by which we acquire information about populations from samples. A
critical component of inference is probability because it provides the link between the population and the
sample. This chapter introduces probability and the basic concepts associated with it.

4.2 Basic concepts

Deterministic experiments
Deterministic experiment is an experiment the result of which is determined by certain natural laws.
Thus the weight of an object is determined by the ‘law of gravity’.

Statistical experiments
The result of a statistical experiment is not determined by a natural law such as the ‘law of gravity’, but
has an element of chance attached to it. For example, when rolling a standard six-sided die, six possible
events correspond to the six faces of the die that contain either one, two, three, four, five or six dots.
Thus if a die is cast there is no way of determining the outcome which may be any element of the set
S = {1,2 ,3 , 4 ,5 ,6}.

Sample space ( S )
Sample space is defined as the set of elements which include all the possible outcomes of a particular
statistical experiment.
Example 4.1:
Toss a coin.

Solution:
The sample space S = {H, T} where H represents a head and T represents a tail.

Example 4.2:
The withdrawal of a ball from a bowl containing one green, one yellow and one red ball.

Solution:

S = {green ball; yellow ball; red ball}

An event (E)
The outcome of a statistical experiment is an event. An event is any subset of the sample space.

Example 4.3:
A die is cast twice. On the first toss, the die lands and one dot is observed. On the second toss, six dots
is observed. Define the events.

Solution:
The sample space for tossing a die is S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} .

Let event A be the die landing on one dot A = {1} where A is a subset of S .
Let event B be the die landing on six dots B = {6} where B is subset of S .

Both A and B are examples of events.

Simple event
Simple event is an event consisting of only one element.

Compound event
Compound event is the union of simple events; it contains more than one element.
Null event ( φ )

Null event
φ is a subset of sample space that contains no elements. That is,
φ is contained in S

denoted as
φ⊂S .

Example 4.4:
A six-sided die is cast. Can the die land on a seven? Define the events.

Solution:
The sample space for tossing a six-sided die is S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} which does not contain a seven. Thus a

die landing on seven is a null event A = φ

4.3 Operations w ith events

Intersection of events ( ∩ )

The intersection of two events is the set containing all elements that belong to event A and event B .

It is denoted by A ∩ B and read as ‘ A and B ’. It is illustrated in Figure 4.2.

Figure 4.2: Intersection of events

S
A B

A B
Example 4.5:

Consider a sample space S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10 } , event A = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 } and event

B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 } . Calculate the intersection of A and B.

Solution:
A ∩ B = { 2 ,4 }

Mutually exclusive events

Mutually exclusive events have no elements in common. Thus, if events A and B are mutually exclusive
then A ∩ B = φ (see Figure 4.3).

Figure 4.3: Mutually exclusivity

Note:

Example 4.6:

Consider two events, A and B . Calculate the intersection of A and B if event A = { 1, 3, 5, 7} and

event B = {2, 4, 6, 8}

Solution:

Events A and B have no elements in common and are mutually exclusive, i.e. A ∩ B = φ

Note: In Figure 4.1, event B and event C are mutually exclusive and have no elements in common.
Union of events ( ∪ )

Contains all elements that belong to either event A or event B or both. It is denoted by A ∪ B , read ‘
A or B ’.

Example 4.7:

Consider A and B . Calculate the union of A and B if A = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 }

Solution:
A ∪ B ={1,2,3,4,5,6,8}

Complement of an event

The complement of event A , denoted by A , is the set of all elements in the sample space, S that are

not in A (see Figure 4.4).

Figure 4.4: Complement of event

Example 4.8:

Let sample space, S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. If R = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6 }, calculate R

Solution:

R = {5}
Note:

1. Neither A nor B: A ∪ B = 1 − (A ∪ B)

2. A∩ A =φ
3. A∪ A = S

4. S =φ

4.4 Counting sam ple points

Sampling with and without replacement

From a bag containing ten numbers from 1 to 10, we have to draw three numbers. As the first step, we
draw a number. Now, we have the choice of replacing or not replacing the number in the bag. If we
replace the number, then this number can be drawn again. If the number is not replaced, then it can
only be drawn once. Sampling where each element of a population may be chosen more than once (i.e.,
where the chosen element is replaced) is called sampling with replacement. Sampling without
replacement takes place when each element of a population can be chosen only once.

Multiplication rule

If 1st operation can be performed in n1 ways,

2nd operation can be performed in n2 ways,

k th operation can be performed in

nk ways.

It follows that the k operations can be performed in n1n2 n3 ... nk ways.

Example 4.9:

If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be

performed in n2 ways. How many ways can the two operations be performed?

Solution:

The two operations can be performed together in n1 n2 ways.

Example 4.10:
How many different lunches are possible consisting of soup, a sandwich, dessert and a drink selected
from four kinds of soups, three kinds of sandwiches, five kinds of desserts and four kinds of drinks?

Solution:
4 x 3 x 5 x 4 = 240

Example 4.11:
In how many ways can a pair of dice land if thrown?

Solution:
The first die can land in six ways. For each of these the second die can also land in six ways.
Therefore: 6 x 6 = 36 ways:
(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

Example 4.12:
How many even three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 if each digit can be used
only once?

Solution:
2 x 4 x 3 = 24 possible even 3-digit numbers (see Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.5: Three-digit number

only 2 or 6

any one of the remaining four

any one of the remaining three

The multiplication rule illustrates that one can calculate the number of elements in the sample space
when it is too large to list them. There are other basic counting rules that facilitate the determination of
the size of the sample space.

Factorial (n!)
This is denoted as n! It is the product of n with all the natural numbers less than n. For example

5!= 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120
Note:

1. 0!= 1
2. Use your scientific calculator to calculate the n! or x!

Permutations
Permutations refer to the number of different ways in which objects can be arranged in order. In a
permutation, each item can appear only once, and each order of the items’ arrangement constitutes a
separate permutation. Note that the order of the objects is important or repetitions are allowed. The
number of permutations of n different objects taken r at a time is given by

n!
Pr =
n
( n − r )! (4.1)
Note:
1. n > r >1
2. Use your scientific calculator to calculate the nPr

Example 4.13:

Calculate the number of permutations of the letters a , b, c and d taken two at a time.

Solution:
Total number of letters, n = 4 taken r = 2 at the time, and the number of permutations is
4! 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 24
n
Pr = = = = 12 and are listed below in Table 4.1.
(4 − 2)! 2 ×1 2
Table 4.1: Permutations

ab ba ca da ac bc

cb db ad bd cd dc
Example 4.14:
Michelle has seven textbooks, but can fit only five of them onto a shelf. If the other two books have to
sit on the desk, in how many ways can Michelle arrange the shelf?

Solution:
Total number of books, n = 7 taken r = 5 at the time, and the number of choices available for the shelf
arrangement is
7! 7! 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 5040
7
P5 = = = = = 2520
(7 − 5)! 2! 2 ×1 2

Example 4.15:
In how many ways can a first two prizes be drawn from 20 lottery tickets?

Solution:

Let total number of lottery tickets be n = 20 and r=2

The number of arrangements is
20! 20! 20 × 19 × (18 × 17 × .... × 3 × 2 × 1)
20
P2 = = = = 20 × 19 = 380
(20 − 2)! 18! (18 × 17 × .... × 3 × 2 × 1)

General partitions

 , nk
The number of distinct partitions of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second kind,

of a k th kind is:

 n  n!
  = (4.2)
 n1 , n2 ,...nk  n1!×n2!×n3!×... × nk !
where n = n1 + n2 + ... + nk

Example 4.16:
In how many different ways can three red, four yellow and two blue bulbs be arranged in a string of
Christmas tree lights with nine sockets?
Solution:
Let total number of sockets n = 9
The number of arrangements is
9 9! 362880 362880
� �= = = = 1260
3, 4, 2 3! × 4! × 2! 6 × 24 × 2 288

where 3 red + 4 yellow + 2 blue bulbs = 9 sockets

Example 4.17:
Consider the set {a, e, i, o, u}. In how many ways can the vowels be partitioned into two sets, one of
size one and the other of size four?

Solution:
Let total number of letters n = 5
The number of arrangements is {(a, e, i, o) (u)} {(a, i, o, u) (e)} {(a, e, o, u) (i)} {(a, e, i, u) (o)}
{(e, i, o, u) (a)}
5 ways or use calculation such that
5 5! 120
� �= = =5
1, 4 1! × 4! 1 × 24
where size 1 + size 4 = 5

Example 4.18:
In how many ways can seven guests be assigned to one triple and two double rooms?

Solution:

Let total number of letters n = 7

The number of arrangements is

 7  7! 5040 5040
  = = = = 210
 3, 2, 2  3!2!2! 6 × 2 × 2 24
where (1 × 3) + (2 × 2 ) = 7
Combinations
Combinations consider only the possible sets of objects, regardless of the order in which the members of
the set are arranged. That is, the order of the objects is not important or repetitions are not allowed.

(nr ) where
n
Cr
The notations used for such combinations are or

n n!
n
Cr =   = (4.3)
 r  r!×(n − r )!
Note:
1. n > r >1
2. Use your scientific calculator to calculate the nCr

Example 4.19:

The number of combinations of the letters a, b, c and d taken two at a time is:

Solution:
Let total number of letters n = 4
The number of combinations is

 4 4! 4 × 3 × 2 ×1 24
4
C2 =   = = = =6
 
2 2!( 4 − 2 )! (2 × 1) × (2 × 1) 4
and are listed below in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2: Combinations

ab ac ad bc bd cd

Example 4.20:
From four females and three males, in how many ways can a committee of three members be formed
with two females and one male?

Solution:
The number of ways of selecting two females from four is

 4 4! 4 × 3 × 2 ×1 24
4
C2 =   = = = =6
 2  2!×(4 − 2)! (2 × 1) × (2 × 1) 4
 3 3! 3 × 2 ×1 6
The number of ways of selecting one male from three is C1 =   =
3
= = =3
1  1!×(3 − 1)! (2 × 1) 2
Total number of ways: 6 x 3 = 18. (Use the multiplication rule)
Example 4.21:
A bowl contains: 10 red, four blue, eight yellow, six green marbles. In how many ways can two red, one
blue, two yellow and three green marbles be selected (if selection takes place without replacement)

Solution:
Number of ways of selecting two red from 10, number of ways of selecting one blue from four, number
of ways of selecting two yellow from eight and number of ways of selecting three green from six is

10   4   8   6   10!   4!   8!   6! 
  ×   ×   ×   =   ×   ×   ×  
        
2 1 2 3 2!×(10 − 2 )!   1!×( 4 − 1)!   2!×(8 − 2)!   3!×( 6 − 3)! 

10!×4!×8!×6! 10!×4!
= =
2!×8!×3!×2!×6!×3!×3! 2!×3!×2!×3!×3!

=
(10 × 9 × 8 × ... × 2 ×1)× (4 × 3 × 2 ×1)
(2 ×1)× (3 × 2 ×1)× (2 ×1)× (3 × 2 ×1)× (3 × 2 ×1)

3,628,800 × 24 87,091,200
= = = 100,800
2× 6× 2× 6× 6 846

In how many distinct ways can the 28 marbles be arranged?

28 28! 3.0489×1029 3.0489×1029
� �= = = = 1.2059 × 1014
10, 4, 8, 6 10!×4!×8!×6! 3,628,800×24×40,320×720 2.5283×1015

4.5 The probability of an event

Probability is a number that represents the chance that a particular event will occur for a random
variable. Consider the following situations:
1. tossing a coin
2. playing the lotto
3. rolling a seven when rolling two dice
4. winning an election
5. rain in a forecast
Which event is more likely to occur?
In general, consider a sample space, S. Let the elements of the sample space be E1 , E 2 , ... . Assign

numbers P1 , P2 , ... to E1 , E2 ,... so that every Pi ≥ 0 and the ∑ P = 1.

i These numbers P1 , P2 , ...

are called the probabilities of E1 , E2 , ... . Numerical values of probabilities can be determined by

considerations of symmetry. The number of elements in a set is denoted by the symbol #. If all

elements have the same probability assigned to every element, the probability of an event A is denoted

by
P( A) where

# A
P( A) =
#S (4.4)
and probabilities are decimal numbers in the range of 0 to 1 (0 ≤ P ( A) ≤ 1) . A smallest probably value

of 0 indicates an event that never occurs (equivalent to a null event) denoted as P (φ ) = 0 . You cannot

have a negative probability. A largest possible probability value is one and indicates an event that must
occur and/or the probability of all the possible outcomes/elements/events in the sample space, S and is
denoted as P( S ) = 1 .

Example 4.22:
An unbiased die is cast. Unbiasedness is taken to be that the probabilities of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are all equal,
thus P1 is the probability of a 1, P2 is the probability of a 2 etc. Therefore

P1 = P2 = P3 = P4 = P5 = P6 . If the sample space for tossing a die is S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6} . Hence it

1
follows that P1 = P2 = P3 = P4 = P5 = P6 = . Calculate the probability of a die landing on a six and
6
the probability of throwing an even number.

Solution:
The probability of obtaining (throwing) a six is

#B 1
B = {6} P{B} = = = 0.1667 (rounded off to four decimals)
#S 6
The probability of throwing an even number is

#E 3 1
E = {2; 4; 6} P{E} = = = = 0.5
#S 6 2
Example 4.23:
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least one head occurs? (Assume equal probability
of occurrence.)

Solution:
When tossing a coin twice, the events can be represented as
Heads on the first toss and heads on the second toss (HH ) .

Heads on the first toss and tails on the second toss (HT ) .

Tails on the first toss and heads on the second toss (TH ) .

Tails on the first toss and tails on the second toss (TT ) .

Thus, the sample space contains the elements S = {HH , HT , TH , TT } . The probability associated with

each element is 1 .
4
Event A represents tossing at least one head
A = {HH, HT, TH}
The probability of tossing at least one head is
number of elements in event A n 3
P( A) = = = = 0.75
number of elements in sample space S N 4

If the sample space contains N elements, all of which are equally likely to occur, we assign probabilities
1
of to each of the N points. If an event consists of n of these N points, the probability of the
N
1 1 1 n
event is + + ... + ( n times) = .
N N N N

Example 4.24:
If a card is drawn from a deck of cards (see Figure 4.1), what is the probability that it is a heart?

Solution:
N = 52, n = 13 (13 hearts)
𝑛 13 1
= = = 0.25
𝑁 52 4
Example 4.25:
In a poker hand consisting of five cards (see Figure 4.1), what is the probability of holding two aces and
three jacks?

Solution:
The number of ways of being dealt two aces from four is

4C =  4 4! 4 × 3 × 2 ×1 24
 = = = =6
2  2  2!× (4 − 2 )! (2 × 1) × (2 × 1) 4

The number of ways of being dealt three jacks from four is

4   4! 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 24
C =  4 = =
3  3  3!×(4 − 3)! (3 × 2 × 1) = 6 = 4
Hence the number of ways of being dealt two aces and three jacks from four aces and four jacks is (by
the multiplication rule)

 4   4  6 × 4 = 24 = n
  ×  =
 2  3 

Number of ways in which five cards can be dealt from 52 is

52  52!
 = = 2,598,960
 5  5!×(52 − 5)!
Hence N = 2,598,960 .
The probability of selecting two aces and three jacks from a deck of cards is
n 24
= = 0.0000092
N 2598960

Probability addition law

The probability that either event A, or event B, or both occur that is mathematically 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

Case 1: A and B are not mutually exclusive

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) (4.5)
Figure 4.6 illustrates the probability of two events A and B. To calculate the probability of the union of
events A and B, the probability of A ∩ B is counted twice. Therefore the probability of A ∩ B is

subtracted once.
 Figure 4.6: Probability addition law

A∩B
Example 4.26:
A survey of executives revealed that 38% of them regularly read the Sunday Times, 22% read the Cape
Argus and 44% read the City Press. Eleven percent read both the Sunday Times and the City Press.
What is the probability that an executive reads either the Sunday Times or the City Press regularly
(rounded off to two decimals)?

Solution:
𝑃(𝑆𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑆𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠) + 𝑃(𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠) − 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ)
= 0.38 + 0.44 − 0.11 = 0.71

Example 4.27:
Table 4.3 displays 270 managers of company X, classified by gender and promotion to work positions.

Table 4.3: Company X

Variable Promoted Not promoted Total
Male 46 184 230
Female 8 32 40
Total 54 216 270

The probability of choosing a manager at random and finding that the person is either a male or
promoted (rounded off to four decimals):

Solution
P(male ∪ promoted ) = P(male) + P( promoted ) − P(male ∩ promoted )
230 54 46 262
= + − = = 0.8815
270 270 270 270
Case 2: A and B are mutually exclusive

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive (see Figure 4.7), the probability of both events A and B
occurring is 0. This means that the two events cannot occur at the same time. Thus, the probability of

either events A or B occurring is

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) (4.6)

For n events, if
A1 , A2 , , An are mutually exclusive, then:

P( A1 ∪ A2 ∪  ∪ An ) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) +  + P( An )
(4.7)

Figure 4.7: Mutually exclusive

Here A ∩ B =φ

Example 4.28:
What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice is tossed?

Solution:
Let event A be observing a total of seven when two dice are tossed.
Let event B be observing a total of eleven when two dice are tossed.
The two dice are denoted by ( x, y ) where x is the value representing the first die and y is the value
representing the second die. For example (1,6 ) means the first die landed on one and the second die

landed on six.
Event A: 7 occurs Event B: 11 occurs
(1, 6) (4, 3) (5, 6)
(2, 5) (5, 2) (6, 5)
(3, 4) (6, 1)
There is six elements in event A n A = 6 and two elements in event B nB = 2 . There is in total 36

possible outcomes when tossing two dice N = 36 (see Example 4.12).

nA 6
P ( A) = = = 0.1667 (rounded off to four decimals)
N 36
nB 2
P( B) = = = 0.0556 (rounded off to four decimals)
N 36
Event A and event B have no elements in common. Thus, the two events are mutually exclusive. That
is 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0.

P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A or B)

= P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )

6 2 8
= + −0= = 0.2222
36 36 36
(rounded off to four decimals)

Probability complement law

Probability that event A occurred is P( A) . The probability that event A did not occur is denoted by

P(A ) and called the complement of event A . The complement rule is derived from the fact that the
probability of an event and the probability of the event’s complement must sum to one. That is

P( A) + P( A) = 1 (4.8)

∴ P( A) = 1 − P( A) (4.9)

Example 4.29:
A survey of executives revealed that 38% of them regularly read the Sunday Times, 22% read the Cape
Argus and 44% read the City Press. Eleven percent read both the Sunday Times and the City Press.
What is the probability that an executive does not read the Cape Argus (rounded off to two decimals)?

Solution:
𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑔𝑢𝑠) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑒 𝐴𝑟𝑔𝑢𝑠)
= 1 − 0.22 = 0.78
Example 4.30:
Consider tossing a die. What is the complement of getting the face that contains three dots?

Solution:
The sample space for tossing a die is S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.

Let event A be observing three dots on a die.

1
The probability of getting the face containing three dots is P ( A) = = 0.1667 (rounded off to four
6
decimals)

The probability of not getting the face containing three dots is

1 6 −1 5
P( A ) = 1 − P( A) = 1 − = = = 0.8333 (rounded off to four decimals)
6 6 6

Example 4.31:
Consider Example 4.29. What is the probability of not throwing a seven?

Solution:
6 36 − 6 30
P( A ) = 1 − P( A) = 1 − = = = 0.8333 (rounded off to four decimals)
36 36 36

Example 4.32:
A coin is tossed six times in succession. What is the probability that at least one head occurs?

Solution:
Possible number of outcomes when tossing one coin is 2.

Possible number of outcomes when tossing a coin twice is 22 = 4 .

Possible number of outcomes when tossing a coin three times is 23 = 8 .
Continue as above when tossing a coin four and five times.

Possible number of outcomes when tossing a coin six times is 26 = 64 .

Let event E be at least one head occurs.
Let event 𝐸� be no heads occur. Thus, in all six tosses the die landed on a tail (T T T T T T).
Probability of at least one toss is

1 64 − 1 63
P( E ) = 1 − P( E ) = 1 − = =
64 64 64
Conditional probability
The probability of an event A occurring when it is known that some event B has occurred, is called the
conditional probability of A given B, and written as P(A│B) where

P( A ∩ B)
P( A | B) = , where P ( B ) > 0 (4.10)
P( B)
Or
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has occurred, is called the
conditional probability of B given A , and written as P(B│A) where

P( A ∩ B)
P( B | A) = , where P ( A) > 0 (4.11)
P( A)

This is illustrated graphically in Figure 4.8.

Figure 4.8: Conditional Probability, P(A|B)

Example 4.33:
A survey of executives revealed that 38% of them regularly read the Sunday Times, 22% read the Cape
Argus and 44% read the City Press. Eleven percent read both the Sunday Times and the City Press.
What is the probability that an executive reads Sunday Times given they read City Press (rounded off to
two decimals)?

Solution:
𝑃(𝑆𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 ∩ 𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠) 𝑃(𝑆𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠)
𝑃(𝑆𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠|𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠) = =
𝑃(𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠) 𝑃(𝐶𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠)
0.11
= = 0.25
0.44
Example 4.34:
The probability that a flight departs on time is
P( D) = 0.83 and the probability that it arrives on time is

P ( A) = 0.92 and P ( A ∩ D) = 0.78

What is the probability that it arrives on time given that it departed on time?
What is the probability that it departed on time, given that it has arrived on time?

Solution:
1. Consider the initial event of departing on time, calculate the probability of arriving on time.
P( A ∩ D) 0.78
P( A D) = = = 0.94
P( D) 0.83

Interpretation: There is a 94% chance that the flight arrives on time given that it departed on time.

2. Considering the intial event of arriving on time, calculate the probability of departing on time.
P( A ∩ D) 0.78
P( D A) = = = 0.85
P( A) 0.92

Interpretation: There is a 85% chance that the flight departed on time given that it arrived on time.

Example 4.35:
The probability that a pharmacist owned a PC is P(PC) = 0.83 and the probability that a pharmacist
owned a TV set is P(TV) = 0.92 and probability of both is P(PC and TV) = 0.78. Calculate
1. If the pharmacist owned a TV, what is the probability that the same pharmacist also owned a PC.
2. What is the probability of a pharmacist owned a TV, given that he/she owned a PC?

Solution:
Consider the initial event of owning a TV, calculate the probability of owning a PC.
P( PC ∩ TV ) 0.78
P( PC | TV ) = = = 0.8478 (rounded off to four decimals)
P(TV ) 0.92
Consider the initial event of owning a PC, calculate the probability of owning a TV.
P( PC ∩ TV ) 0.78
P(TV | PC ) = = = 0.9398 (rounded off to four decimals)
P( PC ) 0.83
Note: Consider events A and B

1. P(neither A nor B): P( A ∪ B ) = 1 − P( A ∪ B )

2. P( A | B) = 1 − P( A | B)

3. P( A ∩ A ) = 0
4. P( A ∪ A ) = P( S ) = 1

5. P( S ) = 0

Probability multiplication law

Determines the probability that two events A and B will both happen i.e. mathematically
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( AB) . There are two probability multiplication laws, and the one that is applicable will
depend on whether the events are independent or dependent. First we will consider situations when the
events are independent.

Case 1: Independent events

Two events are independent if the probability of one event is not affected by the occurrence of the other

event. Two events A and B are independent if any one of the following holds:
P( B A ) = P( B )
(4.12)

P( A B ) = P( A )
(4.13)
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) P ( B ) (4.14)

Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.

Example 4.36:
A die is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting a two on the first toss and an odd number on the
second toss?

Solution:
First determine if the two events are independent or not.
Let event A be counting two dots on a die, A = {2} as a result P(A) = 1�6

Let event B be all the odd numbers on a die, B = {1, 3, 5} as a result P(B) = 3�6
Considering that on the first toss the die lands on a two, the probability that it will fall on an odd number
3
on the second toss is P ( B | A) = P ( B ) = . Thus the two events A and B are independent.
6
The probability of landing on a two on the first toss and landing on an odd number on the second toss is

1 3 3
P( A ∩ B) = P( A) × P( B) =   ×   = = 0.0833 (rounded off to four decimals)
 6   6  36
Example 4.37:
Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck (see Figure 4.1), with replacement. Are the two events
independent or dependent?

Solution:
Since the first card is replaced, the result of the first selection did not influence the probability of
occurrence of the second one, hence events are independent. Thus independence holds true such that
P(B│A) = P(B) and P(A│B) = P(A).

Example 4.38:
A town has one fire engine and one garbage van.
P(fire engine available)= 0.98 and P(garbage van is available) = 0.92
Calculate the probability that both the fire engine and garbage van are available.

Solution:
Availability of a fire engine is independent from the availability of the garbage van. As a result, P(both
vehicles are available) = 0.98 x 0.92 = 0.9016

Example 4.39:
If a blue die and a red die are cast simultaneously, the sample space S consists of 36 ordered pairs.
S = {(1 ;1) ; (1 ; 2) ; ... (6 ; 6)} See Example 4.12. for the full list of elements. The first digit represent the
red die and the second digit represents the blue die.
Let event A be ‘the number one appears on the blue die regardless of the outcome of the red die’.
Let event B be ‘the number one appears on the red die regardless of the outcome of the blue die’.
Solution:
A = {(1,1), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), (6,1)}
nA 6
The number of elements in event A = 6 and thus P( A) = = = 0.1667 (rounded off to four
N 36
decimals).
B = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)}
nB 6
The number of elements in event B = 6 and thus P( B) = = = 0.1667 (rounded off to four
N 36
decimals)

Elements common to both events A and B is A ∩ B = { ( 1;1 )} . The number of elements in the

n 1
intersection is one and thus P ( A ∩ B ) = = . We will consider 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐵) =
N 36
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) to determine if events A and B are independent
1 1 1
P ( A) × P ( B ) = × = = P ( A ∩ B ) Therefore, the events A and B are independent.
6 6 36

Tree diagram

Example 4.40:
Consider the following problem. There are three red balls and two white balls in a box. An experiment
consists of drawing three balls in succession, with replacement. What is the probability that in three

draws, a) That three red balls will be drawn? b) There is one red ball? c) There are two red balls?

Solution:
Tree diagram of all the possible events when drawing three balls from a bag containing red & white balls.
 3
a) First ball drawn is red is P ( R ) = .
5
Remember the first ball was replaced before the second ball was drawn. Thus, the probability that the
3
second ball drawn is red given the first ball was red is P ( R | R ) = P ( R ) = . As a result, these events
5
are independent according to independence. The probability that the third ball is red given the first two
3
were red is P ( R | RR ) = P ( R ) = . Therefore the probability that three red balls drawn in succession is
5
3 3 3 27
P( RRR) = P( R) × P( R) × P( R) = × × = = 0.216 .
5 5 5 125

b) If only one of the three balls drawn from the bag was red then either the first ball was red or the
second ball was red or the third ball was red. If the first ball drawn was red and the second and third
balls were white then
3 2 2 12
P( RWW ) = P( R) × P(W ) × P(W ) = × × = = 0.096 . If the second ball drawn was red but
5 5 5 125
the first and third balls were white then
2 3 2 12
P (WRW ) = P (W ) × P ( R ) × P (W ) = × × = = 0.096 . If the third ball drawn was red but the
5 5 5 125
first two balls were white then
2 2 3 12
P(WWR) = P(W ) × P(W ) × P( R) = × × = = 0.096 . Finally, the probability of selecting only
5 5 5 125
12 12 12 36
one red ball is P ( RWW ) + P (WRW ) + P ( RWW ) = + + = = 0.288
125 125 125 125

c) Calculating the probability that two of the three balls were red is P ( RRW ) + P ( RWR) + P (WRR)

3 3 2 18
where P ( RRW ) = P ( R ) × P ( R ) × P (W ) = × × = = 0.144 ,
5 5 5 125
3 2 3 18
P( RWR) = P( R) × P(W ) × P( R) = × × = = 0.144 and
5 5 5 125
2 3 3 18
P (WRR) = P (W ) × P ( R ) × P ( R ) = × × = = 0.144 . Therefore the probability of selecting
5 5 5 125
18 18 18 54
two red balls is + + = = 0.432
125 125 125 125
Case 2: Dependent events
It is based on the formula for the condition probability. This rule can be written as:
P( A ∩ B) = P( A and B) = P( AB) = P( A) P( B | A) (4.15)

P( A ∩ B) = P( A and B) = P( AB) = P( B) P( A | B) (4.16)

Example 4.41:
A fuse box contains 20 fuses, of which five are defective. Two fuses are selected in succession without
replacement. What is the probability that both fuses are defective?

Solution:

Let A be the 1st fuse is defective and B be the 2nd fuse is defective

5 1
P( A) = =
20 4
4 5
P( B A) = P( B A ) =
19 19

We can determine whether the two events are dependent when we calculate P (B ) by using the tree
diagram. The probability that the second fuse is defective is
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵)] = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐴̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴̅𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴̅)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴̅)
1 4 1 5 4 3 5 4 15 19
= � × � + ��1 − � × � = � � + � × � = + = = 0.25
4 19 4 19 76 4 19 76 76 76

Thus events A and B are dependent since P ( B ) ≠ P ( B | A) . As a result, we use the law of

multiplication for dependent events

1 4 1
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) × P( B A) = × = = 0.0526
4 19 19
Example 4.42:
The proprietor of a men’s clothing store has recorded the buying behaviour of customers over a long
period of time. He has established that the probability that a customer will buy a shirt is about 0.4. A
customer buys a tie 50% of the time when a shirt is purchased, but only 10% of the time when a shirt is
not purchased. The probability that a customer buys a tie is:
Solution:
We will apply the law of multiplication for dependent events.

P(buying a tie) = P (T ) = ?

P(buying a shirt) = P ( S ) = 0.4

P(buying a tie given buying a shirt) = P (T | S ) = 0.5

P(buying a tie given not buying a shirt)

P(T | S ) = 0.1

𝑃(𝑇) = 𝑃[(𝑆 ∩ 𝑇) ∪ (𝑆̅ ∩ 𝑇)] = 𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝑆̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝑆𝑇) + 𝑃(𝑆̅𝑇)

= 𝑃(𝑆)𝑃(𝑇|𝑆) + 𝑃(𝑆̅)𝑃(𝑇|𝑆̅)

= (0.4 × 0.5) + �(1 − 0.4) × 0.1� = 0.2 + (0.6 × 0.1) = 0.2 + 0.06 = 0.26

Example 4.43:
Consider that bag 1 contains four white balls and three black balls while bag 2 contains three white balls
and five black balls. One ball is drawn from bag 1 and placed in bag 2 (unseen). A ball is now drawn
from bag 2. What is the probability that it is black?

Solution:
We will apply the multiplication law for dependent events.
Define the events
B1 be a black ball drawn from bag 1
B2 be a black ball drawn from bag 2
W1 be a white ball drawn from bag 1
W2 be a white ball drawn from bag 2

The probability that a black ball is drawn from bag 2 is

𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 𝑃[(𝐵1 ∩ 𝐵2 ) ∪ (𝑊1 ∩ 𝐵2 )] = 𝑃(𝐵1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵2 ) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝑊1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵2 ) = 𝑃(𝐵1 𝐵2 ) + 𝑃(𝑊1 𝐵2 )

= �𝑃(𝐵1 ) × 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝐵1 )� + (𝑃(𝑊1 ) × 𝑃(𝐵2 |𝑊1 ))

3 6 4 5 18 20 38
=� × �+� × � = + = = 0.6032
7 9 7 9 63 63 63
Generalized multiplicative rule

For the k dependent events

A1 , A2 , , Ak
P( A1 ∩ A2 ∩  Ak )
= P( A1 )P( A2 A1 )P( A3 A1 ∩ A2 )
 P( Ak A1 ∩ A2 ∩  ∩ Ak −1 )
(4.17)

For independent events

A1 , A2 ,..., Ak

P( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ ... An )
= P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( A3 )... P( Ak ).
(4.18)

Example 4.44:
Three cards are drawn in succession without replacement from a deck of cards (see Figure 4.1). Find the
probability that the first card is a red ace, the second card is a ten or a jack and the third is greater than
three but less than seven.

Solution:
Let
A1 be the 1st card is a red ace
A2 be the 2nd card is a ten or jack

A3 be the 3rd card between three and seven (3 < card < 7)
2
P ( A1 ) =
52
8
P ( A2 | A1 ) =
51
P( A3 | A1 ∩ A2 ) =
12
50
Are the events independent or dependent?

���1 ∩ 𝐴2 )] = 𝑃(𝐴1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴2 ) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐴

𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 𝑃[(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) ∪ (𝐴 ���1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴2 )=𝑃(𝐴1 𝐴2 ) + 𝑃(𝐴
���1 𝐴2 )

���1 )𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴
= 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴2 |𝐴1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ���1 )
 2 8 2 8 16 50 8 16 400 416
=� × � + ��1 − � × � = +� × �= + = = 0.1569
52 51 52 51 2652 52 51 2652 2652 2652

Thus, the events are dependent.

The probability of the three events is
2 8 12
P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) = P ( A1 ) × P ( A2 | A1 ) × P ( A3 | A1 ∩ A2 ) = × × = 0.0014
52 51 50
(rounded off to four decimals)

Example 4.45:
A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. If a coin is tossed three times, what is
the probability of getting two tails and a head?

Solution:
Sample space when tossing a coin three times is

S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }

The sample space of a coin is S ={ H ;T } .

The sum of the probability of the sample space is one, P ( H ) + P (T ) = 1 . But these events do not
have equal probabilities since a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail. We find that
P ( H ) = 2 × P (T ) . Substituting the latter into the former we find that

(2 × P(T ) ) + P(T ) = 1 or P (T ) =
1
∴ P( H ) =
2
3 3

Are the two events T and H independent or dependent? Considering that the first toss is a head, the
1 1
probability that the second toss is a tail is P (T | H ) = which is equal to P (T ) = . Therefore we can
3 3
assume independence.

Let event A be tossing two tails and one head thus A = { HTT , THT , TTH }
Therefore,

P( HTT ) = 2 × 1 × 1 = 2 P( THT ) = 1 × 2 × 1 = 2 P( TTH ) = 1 × 1 × 2 = 2

3 3 3 27 3 3 3 27 3 3 3 27

Further,
P( A) = P( HTT or THT or TTH )
= P( HTT ) + P(THT ) + P(TTH )
2 2 2 6 2
= + + = = = 0.222
27 27 27 27 9
(rounded off to three decimals)

Chapter 4 – Exercises

1. A restaurant offers six different toasted sandwiches and three different ribs:
Toasted sandwiches Ribs
Cheese and tomato Junior ribs and chips
Bacon and cheese Mega ribs and chips
Bacon and egg Extra rack
Cheese, tomato and bacon
Chicken mayo
Cheese, tomato, bacon and egg
a) What is the samples space (S) of all the meals offered at the restaurant?
b) Let event B be all the meals that include chips.
c) Let event C be all the meals that include chicken.
d) Which of the above events are simple events?
e) Which of the above events are compound events?

2. Consider two events X and Y are mutually exclusive, define P(X or Y).

3. If X and Y are two events with X ∩ Y > 0 , then events X and Y are?

4. In advertising her oceanfront cottage for summer rental, a property owner can specify (i) whether or
not pets is permitted; (ii) whether the rent will be R1000, R1300, or R1500 per month; (iii) whether or
not children under 10 are allowed; and (iv) whether the maximum stay is one year, two years, three
years or four years. How many different versions of the ad can be generated?

5. Using only the digits 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. How many three digits can be formed if each digit may be used
repeatedly?
6. In how many ways can five differently coloured marbles be arranged in a row?
7. Eight runners complete a race in the Olympics. How many distinct arrangements are there if the first
three competitors past the post?

8. In how many ways can 10 people be seated on a bench if only four seats are available and order is
important?

9. Using only the digits 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. How many different numbers containing three digits can be
formed if repetitions are allowed?

10. How many different words can be formed from the word BELLVILLE?

11. How many baseball teams of nine members can be chosen from among 12 players, without regard to
the position played by each member?

12. Using only the digits 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. How many different numbers containing three digits can be
formed if repetitions are not allowed?

13. Suppose that a shop has 10 compact discs that you would like to purchase, but you have enough
money for only three. Calculate the number of different selections you can make (from the ten you
would like to buy)?

14. An ordinary deck of playing cards has 13 cards of each suit (see Figure 4.1). Suppose a card is
selected at random from the deck.
a) What is the probability that the card selected is an ace (rounded off to four decimals)?
b) What is the probability that the card selected is a heart (rounded off to two decimals)?

15. A survey of executives revealed that 35% of them regularly read the Sunday Times, 20% read the
Cape Argus and 40% read the City Press. Ten percent read both the Sunday Times and the City Press.
What is the probability that an executive reads either the Sunday Times or the City Press regularly
(rounded off to two decimals)?

16. Suppose the probability that a company will be awarded a certain contract is 0.3, the probability that
it will be awarded a second contract is 0.2, and the probability that it will get both contracts is 0.2. What
is the probability that the company will win at least one of the two contracts (rounded off to one
decimal)?
17. If the probabilities of Jane, Wanita and Portia being chosen chairwoman of the board are 0.4, 0.5 and
0.1 respectively. What is the probability that the chairwoman will be either Jane or Portia (rounded off to
one decimal)?

18. If the probability that a company will win a contract is 0.3. What is the probability that the company
will not win the contract (rounded off to one decimal)?
19. The probability that a coffee shop customer uses sugar is 0.45, the probability of using cream is 0.35
and the probability of using both is 0.20. What is the probability that a customer uses neither sugar nor
cream (rounded off to two decimals)?

20. The probabilities that an engineer will evaluate a new method of chemical waste disposal as poor,
fair, adequate, very good, or excellent are 0.22, 0.21, 0.33, 0.19, and 0.05. Find the probabilities that the
engineer will evaluate the new method of chemical waste disposal as:
a) Fair or adequate (rounded off to two decimals)?
b) At least fair (rounded off to two decimals)?
c) At best fair (rounded off to two decimals)?
d) Neither poor nor excellent (rounded off to two decimals)?

21. An ordinary deck of playing cards has 13 cards of each suit (see Figure 4.1). Suppose a card is
selected at random from the deck. Given that the card selected is a spade, what is the probability that
the card is an ace (rounded off to four decimals)?

22. A committee is composed of six members from party A and five members from party B. Three
members from Party A are men and three members from party B are men. If a man is chosen for
chairperson, what is the probability that he is from party B (rounded off to one decimal)?

23. A fuse box contains 20 fuses, of which five are defective. Two fuses are selected without
replacement. Are the events independent?
24. Among 50 registration forms for students at a university, 30 were for students who were registered in
the Science Faculty, and 20 for students who were registered in the Economic and Management Science
(EMS) Faculty. If two of the forms were lost by the registrar and their “selection” was without
replacement, what are the probabilities that
a) Both forms were for students registered in the Science Faculty (rounded off to four decimals)?
b) Both forms were for students registered in the EMS Faculty (rounded off to four decimals)?
c) One form was for a student registered in the Science Faculty and the other form was for a
student registered in the EMS Faculty (rounded off to four decimals)?

25. An ordinary die is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting a two on the first toss and an odd
number on the second toss (rounded off to four decimals)?

26. The results of classifying 400 university students by sex and major are given in the Table 4.4.
Table 4.4: University students data

Sex Psychology Sociology Pharmacy Economics Total

Male 72 124 78 82 356

Female 10 12 10 12 44

Total 82 136 88 94 400

If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that:

a) The student is a Psychology major (rounded off to three decimals)?
b) The student is an Economics major (rounded off to three decimals)?
c) The student is a female (rounded off to three decimals)?
d) The student is a female Pharmacy major (rounded off to three decimals)?
e) The student is a male Sociology major (rounded off to three decimals)?

27. The Air force receives 30% of its parachutes from company C1 and the rest from company C2. The
probability that a parachute will fail to open is 0.0025 and 0.002, depending on whether it is from
company C1 or C2, respectively.
a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen parachute will fail to open (rounded off to four
decimals)?
b) If a randomly chosen parachute fails, what is the probability it came from company C1 (rounded
off to four decimals)?
c) If a randomly chosen parachute fails, what is the probability it came from company C2 (rounded
off to four decimals)?
28. A travel agent books passages on three different tours, with half her customers choosing the first
tour, one-third choosing the second tour, and the rest choosing the third tour. The agent has noted that
three-quarters of those who take the first tour return to book passage again, two-thirds of those who
take the second tour return, and one-half of those who take the third tour return.
a) What is the probability of choosing the third tour (rounded off to four decimals)?
b) What is the probability of choosing the first tour and returned to book passage again (rounded
off to four decimals)?
c) What is the probability of choosing the third tour and returned to book passage again (rounded
off to four decimals)?
d) What is the probability that a random person returned to book a passage again (rounded off to
four decimals)?
e) If a customer does return, what is the probability that the person first went on the second tour
(rounded off to four decimals)?

29. A gambler throws three fair dice. What is the probability of not throwing a four (rounded off to four
decimals)?

30. We randomly select three cards from a deck of playing cards (see Figure 4.1). After having looked at
each card, it is replaced before the next card is drawn. What is the probability that:
a) The first card is black (rounded off to one decimal)?
b) The second card is a Jack (rounded off to four decimals)?
c) The first card is black or a Jack (rounded off to four decimals)?
d) The third is a black Jack (rounded off to four decimals)?
e) If we knew that the first card selected is black, what is the probability that it is a Jack (rounded
off to four decimals)?

31. Two cannons bombard a target independently of each other. The respective probabilities of a hit are
0.58 and 0.73.
a) What is the probability that both will hit the target (rounded off to four decimals)?
b) What is the probability that the target will be hit (rounded off to four decimals)?

32. Assume: P(A) = 0.2600, P(B) = 0.6000 and P(A/B) = 0.1961

a) Are the events A and B independent?
b) Find P(A and B) (rounded off to four decimals).
c) Find P(B/A) (rounded off to four decimals).
33. A shipment contains 13 items of which six are defective. Three Items are selected at random.
a) How many different samples can be constituted?
b) What is the probability that all three items prove to be defective (rounded off to four decimals)?
c) What is the probability that exactly one item is defective (rounded off to four decimals)?

34. Eleven Horses take part in a race. Amongst them are four brown horses, four mares and a horse
called Big Foot.
a) In how many ways can the first three places be filled?
b) What is the probability that Big Foot will win the race (rounded off to four decimals)?
c) What is the probability that Big Foot will finish amongst the first 3 (rounded off to four decimals)?
d) What is the probability that mares will finish first, second and third (rounded off to four
decimals)?
e) If none of the mares are brown horses, what is the probability that a brown horse will finish first
with a mare in second place (rounded off to four decimals)?

35. A group of seven people want to elect a committee of three. The group consists of four men and
three women.
a) In how many ways can the committee be constituted?
b) What is the probability that only men will serve on the committee (rounded off to four decimals)?
c) What is the probability that two men and one woman will serve on the committee (rounded off to
four decimals)?

36. Suppose 51% of the population is female and 49% is male. Further, suppose that 9% of the males
and 10% of the females are colourblind. Find the probability that a randomly selected individual is:
a) Colourblind male?
b) A male with normal vision?
c) Colourblind?