Bharat Barometer (Feb’25)
Varun Lohchab
[email protected]
+91 22 6171 7334
Amit Kumar, CFA
[email protected]+91 22 6171 7354
Aryan Singh Dalal
[email protected]+91 22 6171 7330
Economic indicators-a snapshot
Macroeconomic indicators (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25
1 Total GST collection 15% 10% 10% 13% 11% 12% 10% 8% 10% 10% 6% 9% 9% 7% 14% 9%
2 Consumer price index (CPI) 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6.2% 5.5% 5.2% 4.3% 3.6%
3 Core CPI (CPI ex food & fuel) 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 4.0%
4 Wholesale price index (WPI) 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% NA
5 Unemployment-Urban* 9.31 10.08 9.08 8.55 8.08 8.7 8.6 9.02 8.56 8.73 9.08 8.72 8.17 8.38 8.42 7.81
6 Unemployment-Rural* 8.68 7.97 6.53 7.9 7.05 7.8 6.5 8.93 7.24 8.38 6.96 8.94 7.44 7.43 7.66 8.78
7 PMI Manufacturing* 56.0 54.9 56.5 56.9 59.1 58.8 57.5 58.3 58.1 57.5 56.5 57.5 56.5 56.4 57.7 56.3
8 PMI services* 56.9 59.0 61.8 60.6 61.2 60.8 60.2 60.5 60.3 60.9 57.7 58.5 58.4 59.3 56.5 59.0
9 PMI composite* 57.4 58.5 61.2 60.6 61.8 61.5 60.5 60.9 60.7 60.7 58.3 59.1 58.6 59.2 57.7 58.8
External (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25
10 Exports of goods -3% 1% 3% 12% 0% 2% 13% 2% -2% -10% 0% 16% -5% -1% -1%
11 Imports of goods -4% -5% 2% 13% -5% 9% 8% 5% 7% 4% -1% -1% 17% 0% 11%
12 Export of services 4% 2% 11% 3% -1% 17% 10% 3% 17% 6% 15% 22% 14% 17% 12%
13 Import of services -11% -1% 0% 2% -2% 22% 8% -1% 16% 9% 13% 28% 26% 14% 12%
14 Net FDI* (USD Mn) 802 -657 3567 -138 -1366 1924 2347 2408 -2530 1238 -945 -1333 -2630 707 NA
Government collections and expenditure (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25
15 Cumulative gross Direct Tax Collection 25% 23% 24% 22% 18% 12% 23% 40% 34% 13% 14% 11% 12% 12% 11%
16 Revenue expenditure -16% -6% -6% 1% 0% 44% -33% -2% -14% 33% 4% 42% 1% 2% 5%
17 Capital expenditure 2% 105% -41% 315% -4% 26% -50% -66% 108% -30% -2% -8% 21% 95% 51%
18 Subsidy payout -82% -31% -21% -24% -26% -23% 17% 12% -34% 33% 40% 34% 176% -18% -21%
19 Infra Credit 2% 6% 6% 7% 7% 5% 7% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Industrial activity (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25
20 E way bill generated 9% 13% 16% 19% 14% 14% 17% 16% 19% 13% 19% 17% 16% 18% 23% 15%
21 Rail freight tonnage 5% 7% 7% 10% 9% 2% 4% 10% 5% -5% NA NA NA NA NA NA
22 Cargo handled at airports 7% 11% 15% 21% 17% 5% 16% 16% 18% 12% 18% 15% 8% 8% 9% NA
23 Cargo traffic at major ports 17% 1% 3% 2% 4% 2% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% -3% -5% 3% 7% NA
24 IIP- mining 7% 5% 6% 8% 1% 7% 7% 10% 4% -4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 5% NA
25 IIP-manufacturing 1% 4% 3% 5% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 6% 4% 6% NA
26 IIP-electricity 6% 1% 6% 8% 9% 10% 14% 9% 8% -4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 2% NA
27 Power generation 6% 0% 8% 6% 8% 10% 15% 10% 8% -4% -1% 1% 3% 4% -1% 2%
28 Coal offtake (except Lignite) 6% 5% 3% 11% 7% 2% 6% 4% 0% -12% -2% -1% -1% 2% 1% -5%
29 Consumption of petroleum products -1% 3% 8% 6% -1% 8% 2% 2% 11% -2% -4% 4% 8% 3% 2% NA
30 Cement production -4% 4% 6% 10% 12% 1% -1% 2% 5% -3% 7% 3% 13% 4% 14% NA
31 Finished steel consumption 18% 11% 8% 9% 12% 13% 15% 21% 15% 13% 10% 12% 8% 14% 15% 10%
32 Consumption of natural gas (domestic & RLNG) 15% 18% 20% 20% 10% 8% 20% 19% 10% -3% -1% 5% 7% 4% 3% NA
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, AMFI, CDSL, HSIE Research
*Figures mentioned are absolute values 2
Economic indicators-a snapshot
Demand & consumption (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25
33 Total vehicles registered 19% 22% 16% 14% 4% 28% 3% 2% 15% 4% -8% 33% 12% -12% 7% -7%
34 Passenger Vehicle sales 4% 0% 10% 10% 5% 4% 4% 10% -1% -1% 2% 3% 6% 15% 5% NA
35 Telecom subscriber base 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% NA NA
36 Broadband subscriber base 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% NA NA
37 First year premium collection-life insurance -25% 44% 27% 48% 16% 61% 15% 15% 14% 22% 14% 13% -4% -22% -8% NA
38 Gross premium underwritten-nonlife 7% 15% 7% 13% 10% 16% 15% 8% 9% 4% -6% 27% 1% -1% 7% NA
39 Airport passenger traffic 11% 10% 7% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 10% 13% 10% 13% NA
40 Foreign tourist arrival in India 20% 11% 10% 16% 8% 8% 0% 9% 2% -1% 3% 1% 3% -4% NA NA
41 Urban employment 8% 8% 9% 10% 12% 10% 10% 11% 12% 8% 4% 5% 7% 7% 5% 4%
42 Credit card transactions 26% 26% 27% 34% 30% 33% 32% 36% 38% 34% 43% 35% 32% 35% 31% NA
43 Debit card transactions -11% -16% -16% -13% -14% -16% -16% -13% -13% -16% -13% -8% -18% -14% -12% NA
44 CMIE consumer sentiment index: Rural* 106.6 109.1 106.2 107.5 107.9 117.3 117.7 112.4 114.8 111.0 108.6 110.0 112.8 111.0 112.6 112.2
45 CMIE consumer sentiment index: Urban* 99.3 101.8 101.3 100.3 100.0 98.2 100.0 105.3 105.3 103.0 105.8 104.7 106.0 105.2 105.5 104.3
Banking & money flow (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25
46 M3 money supply 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 15% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%
47 currency with public 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6%
48 Value of retail payment transactions 26% 21% 25% 29% 22% 24% 22% 23% 23% 21% 21% 30% 15% 20% 21% 12%
49 Volume of retail payment transactions 47% 44% 43% 50% 46% 43% 42% 44% 38% 36% 37% 42% 32% 35% 35% 29%
50 No. of UPI transactions 54% 54% 52% 61% 55% 50% 49% 49% 45% 41% 42% 45% 38% 39% 39% 33%
51 No. of IMPS transactions 2% 3% 7% 19% 17% 11% 11% 10% 0% -7% -9% -5% -14% -12% -13% -24%
52 Value of Fastag collections 14% 19% 16% 19% 17% 9% 9% 11% 12% 8% 10% 10% 14% 13% 19% NA
53 Volume of Fastag collections 12% 11% 10% 12% 11% 8% 4% 6% 9% 7% 7% 8% 12% 10% 15% NA
54 Outstanding credit of SCBs 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 17% 14% 14% 13% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11%
55 Outstanding deposits of SCBs 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Rural indicators (% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25
56 Rural employment 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 1% 5% 4% 5% 2% 0% 1% 1% -1% 2% 0%
57 Reservoir level live storage* (Bn CM) 116.6 107.7 95.3 77.4 64.6 53.4 41.7 36.4 69.3 144.3 155.5 156.5 147.9 135.4 114.9 93.5
58 Sale quantity of fertilisers -6% -3% -9% -13% 1% -4% 10% 7% -1% -9% -8% -8% 5% 12% 8% NA
59 2 wheelers sales units 25% 14% 25% 35% 18% 30% 12% 19% 12% 10% 17% 16% 3% -1% 9% NA
60 Tractor sales units 1% -21% -14% -26% -20% -3% 1% 3% 1% -5% 2% 21% -1% 13% 11% NA
Capital market(% YoY growth) Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25
60 Active client accounts (NSDL & CDSL) 27% 29% 30% 32% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 33% 31% 28%
61 Net AUM of mutual funds 21% 27% 33% 38% 35% 38% 36% 38% 40% 43% 44% 44% 39% 32% 28% 18%
62 Net inflow of mutual funds (equity) 588% 133% 74% 71% 10% 192% 971% 370% 387% 89% 144% 110% 131% 142% 82% 9%
63 NSE trading volume 41% 19% 164% 190% 55% 161% 61% 83% 67% 14% -6% 6% -24% -31% -44% -53%
64 India VIX* 12.7 14.5 16.0 15.6 12.8 12.9 24.6 13.8 13.3 13.4 12.8 15.6 14.4 14.4 16.2 13.9
65 Value of SIP contributions 28% 30% 36% 40% 35% 48% 42% 44% 53% 49% 53% 50% 48% 50% 40% 36%
66 Net FII* (USD Mn) 1080 7939 -3096 186 4240 -1036 -3063 3186 3874 873 6890 -11195 -2563 1828 -9043 -3977
67 Net New SIPs registered (Mn nos)* 1.40 1.90 2.80 2.90 2.00 3.04 0.58 2.28 3.53 2.74 2.61 2.49 1.03 0.94 -0.51 -1.01
*Figures mentioned are absolute values Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, AMFI, CDSL, HSIE Research
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Macroeconomic indicators (Score:3/5*)
GST collection growth softens from mid- teen to high single digit levels Manufacturing PMI moderates but services PMI rises ahead; both in the expansionary zone
CPI softens whereas Core CPI rises marginally Unemployment declines in urban but rises in rural areas
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
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External sector (Score:2/5*)
Growth in goods’ imports rises to low double- digit levels while growth in services’ imports
Growth in goods’ exports remains subdued while services exports softens but stays healthy moderates
FDI inflows turns positive after three consecutive months of outflows FII outflows continues in the current month as well
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
5
Central government finance(Score:3/5*)
Cumulative direct tax collections growth remains flat at a rate slightly ahead of nominal GDP Revenue exp growth rises (achieved 76.2% of FY25BE till Jan as against 75.5% in previous year)
Government Capex growth declines MoM (achieved 74% of FY25BE till Jan’24 vis-à-vis 76% in Jan’23) Subsidy payout growth declines in Jan’24 for the second straight month.
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
6
Industrial activity (Score:2/5*)
E-way bill generation growth softens but remains healthy Power generation growth rises marginally whereas coal offtake growth declines
Petroleum products consumption growth moderates further Steel consumption growth moderates to higher single digit levels
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
7
Demand & consumption (Score:3/5*)
Overall auto registrations growth moves up but PV sales growth moderates Air passengers traffic continues to grow stronger after crossing pre covid levels
Foreign tourists arrival in India gaining momentum and nearing pre-covid levels Premium growth of life insurance remains under pressure while non-life rises marginally
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
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Banking and money flow (Score:2/5*)
Money supply growth remains stable after a marginally slow growth in Dec’24 UPI transactions growth softens MoM but remains strong; IMPS declines further
Fastag collections growth rises at a strong pace, reviving from lows seen in May’24 Credit and deposit growths remain flattish at low double-digit levels
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
9
Rural indicators (Score:3/5*)
Tractor sales growth softens while two-wheeler sales growth inches up Reservoir level continuous to decline from peak witnessed in Sep’24
Rural employment growth muted in Feb’25 post a rise in previous month Fertilizer sales growth moderates to high single digit levels
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
10
Capital market (Score:1/5*)
Equity MF net inflows declines MoM Growth in SIP contributions continues to decline at MoM level
Net New SIPs registered remains negative for the second straight month Trading volume growth contracts at a rapid pace
Source: CMIE, MOSPI, RBI, ministry of commerce & industry, CDSL,HSIE Research
*1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest score
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