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Chapter 3 Discrete Probability Distribution

Chapter 3 covers discrete probability distributions, focusing on the determination of probabilities, means, and variances for discrete random variables. It introduces concepts such as random variables, cumulative distribution functions, and specific distributions like the Binomial and Poisson distributions. The chapter also outlines properties of discrete probability distributions and provides examples to illustrate these concepts.

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2 views

Chapter 3 Discrete Probability Distribution

Chapter 3 covers discrete probability distributions, focusing on the determination of probabilities, means, and variances for discrete random variables. It introduces concepts such as random variables, cumulative distribution functions, and specific distributions like the Binomial and Poisson distributions. The chapter also outlines properties of discrete probability distributions and provides examples to illustrate these concepts.

Uploaded by

cuevas.nancy.c230058
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 3

DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


Intended Learning Outcomes
At the end of this module, it is expected that the students will be able to:
1. Determine probabilities from probability mass functions.
2. Determine probabilities from cumulative functions and cumulative
distribution functions from probability mass functions.
3. Calculate means and variances for discrete random variables.
4. Understand the assumptions for each of the discrete probability
distributions presented.
5. Select an appropriate discrete probability distribution to calculate
probabilities in specific applications.
6. Calculate probabilities, determine means and variances for each of
the discrete probability distributions presented
Discrete Probability Distribution
• A discrete distribution describes the probability of occurrence of
each value of a discrete random variable.
• A discrete random variable is a random variable that has
countable values, such as a list of non-negative integers. With a
discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the
discrete random variable can be associated with a non-zero
probability. Thus, a discrete probability distribution is often
presented in tabular form.
Topics to be Discussed
• Random Variable and their Probability Distribution
• Cumulative Distribution Functions
• Expected Values of Random Variable
• The Binomial Distribution
• The Poisson Distribution
3.1 Random Variable and their Probability
Distribution
• Random Variables
• In probability and statistics, a random variable is a variable whose value is
subject to variations due to chance (i.e. randomness, in a mathematical
sense). As opposed to other mathematical variables, a random variable
conceptually does not have a single, fixed value (even if unknown); rather,
it can take on a set of possible different values, each with an associated
probability.
• Variable whose value is determined by a random experiment
• Discrete Random Variables
• A discrete random variable is a type of variable that takes on a finite or
countable number of distinct values. It represents outcomes of random
processes or experiments where each outcome has a specific probability
associated with it.
Probability Distributions for Discrete Random
Variables
• Probability distributions Examples of discrete random variables
include:
for discrete random
1. The number of eggs that a hen lays in
variables can be
a given day (it can’t be 2.3)
displayed as a formula, 2. The number of heads when flipping
in a table, or in a three coins (0, 1, 2, or 3 heads).
graph. 3. The number of defective items in a
• A discrete random batch of 10 products.
variable x has a 4. The number of times a bus arrives at
countable number of a stop in a given hour.
possible values.
Properties of Discrete Probability Distribution
1. The sum of all probabilities should be 1.

¼+½+¼=1
Properties of Discrete Probability Distribution
2. The probabilities should be confined between 0 and 1
Learning Activity
• Determine whether the distribution is a discrete probability
distribution

1.

2.
3.2 Cumulative Distribution Functions
• The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a random
variable is a function that tells you the probability that the random
variable will take a value less than or equal to a certain number. It
essentially "accumulates" the probabilities from the smallest
possible value of the random variable up to the value you're
interested in.
• You might recall that the cumulative distribution function is
defined for discrete random variables as:
Cumulative Distribution
X P(X)
X≤0 0.886
X≤1 0.997
X≤2 0.1
3.3 Expected Values of Random Variable
• In probability theory, the expected value (or expectation,
mathematical expectation, EV, mean, or first moment) of a
random variable is the weighted average of all possible values that
this random variable can take on. The weights used in computing
this average are probabilities in the case of a discrete random
variable.
• The expected value of a random variable is the "average"
outcome if an experiment is repeated many times. For discrete
random variables, it's the sum of each possible value weighted by
its probability, and for continuous random variables, it's the
integral of the value multiplied by its probability density.
Example:
• Let’s say you roll a fair six-sided die. The random variable X
represents the outcome of the die roll, and its possible values are
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, each with a probability of 1/6.
3.4 The Binomial Distribution
• Binomial Experiment is a statistical experiment that has the
following properties:
• The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of
these outcomes a success and the other, a failure.
• The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on every
trial.
• The trials are independent; that is, the outcome on one trial does
not affect the outcome on other trials.
Consider the following statistical experiment. You flip a coin 2 times
and count the number of times the coin lands on heads.
1. The experiment consists of repeated trials. We flip a coin 2
times.
2. Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes - heads or
tails.
3. The probability of success is constant - 0.5 on every trial.
4. The trials are independent; that is, getting heads on one trial
does not affect whether we get heads on other trials.
Example 1.
• Probability of drawing a king from a deck of 52 cards.
Example 2.
• Probability of “5” to face up upon rolling a die.
Example
Cumulative Binomial Probability
• A cumulative binomial probability refers to the probability that the
binomial random variable falls within a specified range (e.g., is
greater than or equal to a stated lower limit and less than or equal
to a stated upper limit).
3.5 The Poisson Distribution
• A Poisson distribution is the probability distribution that results
from a Poisson experiment.
Attributes of a Poisson Experiment
A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the
following properties:
• The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as
successes or failures.
• The average number of successes (μ) that occurs in a specified
region is known.
• The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size
of the region.
• The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small
region is virtually zero.
Formula

Where,
Example 1
Example 2
Cumulative Poisson Probability
• A cumulative Poisson probability refers to the probability that
the Poisson random variable is greater than some specified lower
limit and less than some specified upper limit
Example:

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