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CHAPTER 2

DTMCs: Transient Behavior

Modeling Exercises
2.1. The state space of {Xn , n ≥ 0} is S = {0, 1, 2, 3, ...}. Suppose Xn = i.
Then the age of the lightbulb in place at time n is i. If this light bulb does not fail at
time n + 1, then Xn+1 = i + 1. If it fails at time n + 1, then a new lightbulb is put
in at time n + 1 with age 0, making Xn+1 = 0. Let Z be the lifetime of a lightbulb.
We have
P(Xn+1 = 0|Xn = i, Xn−1 , ..., X0 ) = P(lightbulb of age i fails at age i + 1)
= P(Z = i + 1|Z > i)
p
= P∞i+1
j=i+1 p j

Similarly

P(Xn+1 = 0|Xn = i, Xn−1 , ..., X0 ) = P(Z > i + 1|Z > i)

P∞
pj
= Pj=i+2
∞
j=i+1 p j

It follows that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a success-runs DTMC with

P∞
pj
pi = Pj=i+2
∞ ,
j=i+1 p j

and
pi+1
qi = P∞ ,
j=i+1 pj
for i ∈ S.
 2.2 The state space of {Yn , n ≥ 0} is S = {1, 2, 3, ...}. Suppose Yn = i > 1, then
the remaining life decreases by one at time n + 1. Thus Xn+1 = i − 1. If Yn = 1, a
new light bulb is put in place at time n + 1, thus Yn+1 is the lifetime of the new light
bulb. Let Z be the lifetime of a light bulb. We have
P(Yn+1 = i − 1|Xn = i, Xn−1 , ..., X0 ) = 1, i ≥ 2,

5
6 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
and
P(Xn+1 = k|Xn = 1, Xn−1 , ..., X0 ) = P(Z = k) = pk , k ≥ 1.
2.3. Initially the urn has w + b balls. At each stage the number of balls in the urn
increases by k − 1. Hence after n stages, the urn has w + b + n(k − 1) balls. Xn of
them are black, and the remaining are white. Hence the probability of getting a black
ball on the n + 1st draw is
Xn
.
w + b + n(k − 1)
If the n + 1st draw is black, Xn+1 = Xn + k − 1, and if it is white, Xn+1 = Xn .
Hence
i
P(Xn+1 = i|Xn = i) = 1 − ,
w + b + n(k − 1)
and
i
P(Xn+1 = i + k − 1|Xn = i) = .
w + b + n(k − 1)
Thus {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC, but it is not time homogeneous.

2.4. {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with state space {0 = dead, 1 = alive} because the
movements of the cat and the mouse are independent of the past while the mouse is
alive. Once the mouse is dead, it stays dead. If the mouse is still alive at time n, he
dies at time n + 1 if both the cat and mouse choose the same node to visit at time
n + 1. There are N − 2 ways for this to happen. In total there are (N − 1)2 possible
ways for the cat and the mouse to choose the new nodes. Hence
N−2
P(Xn+1 = 0|Xn = 1) = .
(N − 1)2
Hence the transition probability matrix is given by
1 0
P = N −2 N −2 .
(N −1)2
1− (N −1)2

2.5. Let Xn = 1 if the weather is sunny on day n, and 2 if it is rainy on day n.

Let Yn = (Xn−1 , Xn ), be the vector of weather on day n − 1 and n, n ≥ 1. Now
suppose Yn = (1, 1). This means the weather was sunny on day n − 1 and n. Then,
it will be sunny on day n + 1 with probability .8 and the new weather vector will
be Yn+1 = (1, 1). On the other hand it will rain on day n + 1 with probability .2,
and the weather vector will be Yn+1 = (1, 2). These probabilities do not depend on
the weather up to time n − 2, i.e., they are independent of Y1 , Y2 , ...Yn−2 . Similar
analysis in other states of Yn shows that {Yn , n ≥ 1} is a DTMC on state space
{(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (2, 2)} with the following transition probability matrix:
0.8 0.2 0 0
0 0 .5 .5
P = .
.75 .25 0 0
0 0 0.4 0.6
DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR 7

2.6. The state space is S = {0, 1, · · · , K}. Let

K i
αi = p (1 − p)K−i , 0 ≤ i ≤ K.
i

Thus, when a functioning system fails, i components fail simultaneously with prob-
ability αi , i ≥ 1. The {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with transition probabilities:
p0,i = αi , 0 ≤ i ≤ K,
pi,i−1 = 1, 1 ≤ i ≤ K.
2.7. Suppose Xn = i. Then, Xn+1 = i + 1 if the first coin shows heads, while
the second shows tails, which will happen with probability p1 (1 − p2 ), independent
of the past. Similarly, Xn+1 = i − 1 if the first coin shows tails and the second coin
shows heads, which will happen with probability p2 (1 −p1 ), independent of the past.
If both coins show heads, or both show tails, Xn+1 = i. Hence, {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a
space homogeneous random walk on S = {..., −2, −1, 0, 1, 2, ...} (see Example 2.5)
with
pi = p1 (1 − p2 ), qi = p2 (1 − p1 ), ri = 1 − pi − qi .

2.8. We define Xn , the state of the weather system on the nth day, as the length
of the current sunny or rainy spell. The state is k, (k = 1, 2, 3, ...), if the weather
is sunny and this is the kth day of the current sunny spell. The state is −k, (k =
1, 2, 3, ..), if the the weather is rainy and this is the kth day of the current rainy spell.
Thus the state space is S = {±1, ±2, ±3, ...}.
Now suppose Xn = k, (k = 1, 2, 3, ...). If the sunny spell continues for one
more day, then Xn+1 = k + 1, or else a rainy spell starts, and Xn+1 = −(k + 1).
Similarly, suppose Xn = −k. If the rainy spell continues for one more day, then
Xn+1 = −(k + 1), or else a sunny spell starts, and Xn+1 = 1. The Markov property
follows from the fact that the lengths of the sunny and rainy spells are independent.
Hence, for k = 1, 2, 3, ...,
P(Xn+1 = k + 1|Xn = k) = pk ,
P(Xn+1 = −1|Xn = k) = 1 − pk ,
P(Xn+1 = −(k + 1)|Xn = −k) = qk ,
P(Xn+1 = 1|Xn = −k) = 1 − qk .

2.9. Yn is the outcome of the nth toss of a six sided fair die. Sn = Y1 + ...Yn .
Xn = Sn (mod 7). Hence we see that
Xn+1 = Xn + Yn+1 (mod 7).
8 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
Since Yn s are iid, the above equation implies that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with
state space S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Now, for i, j ∈ S, we have
P(Xn+1 = j|Xn = i) = P(Xn + Yn+1 (mod 7) = j|Xn = i)
= P(i + Yn+1 (mod 7) = j)
0 if i = j
= 1
if i = j.
6
Thus the transition probability matrix is given by
1 1 1 1 1 1
0
06 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 0 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
P = 6 6 6 0 6 6 6
1 1 1 1
0 1 1 .
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6
0 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6 6 0

2.10. State space of {Xn , n ≥ 0} is S = {0, 1, · · · , r − 1}. We have

Xn+1 = Xn + Yn+1 (mod r),
which shows that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC. We have
∞
X
P(Xn+1 = j|Xn = i) = P(Yn+1 = (j − i)(mod r)) = αj−i+mr .
m=0

Here we assume that αk = 0 for k ≤ 0.

2.11. Let Bn (Gn ) be the bar the boy (girl) is in on the nth night. Then {(Bn , Gn ), n ≥
0} is a DTMC on S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (2, 2)} with the following transition
probability matrix:
1 0 0 0
a(1 − d) ad (1 − a)(1 − d) (1 − a)d
P = .
(1 − b)c (1 − b)(1 − c) bc b(1 − c)
0 0 0 1

The story ends in bar k if the bivariate DTMC gets absorbed in state (k, k), for
k = 1, 2.

2.12. Let Q be the transition probability matrix of {Yn , n ≥ 0}. Suppose Zm =

f (i), that the DTMC Y is in state i when the filled gas for the mth time. Then, the
student fills gas next after 11 − i days. The DTMC Y will be in state j at that time
with probability [Q11−i ]ij . This shows that {Zm , m ≥ 0} is a DTMC with state
space {f (0), f (1), · · · , f (10)}, with transition probabilities
P(Zm+1 = f (j)|Zm = f (i)) = [Q11−i ]ij .
DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR 9
2.13. Following the analysis in Example 2.1b, we see that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a
DTMC on state space S = {1, 2, 3, ..., k} with the following transition probabilities:

P(Xn+1 = i|Xn = i) = pi , 1 ≤ i ≤ k,

P(Xn+1 = i + 1|Xn = i) = 1 − pi , 1 ≤ i ≤ k − 1,

P(Xn+1 = 1|Xn = k) = 1 − pk .

2.14. Let the state space be {0, 1, 2, 12}, where the state is 0 if both components
are working, 1 if component 1 alone is down, 2 i f component 2 alone is down, and
12 if components 1 and 2 are down. Let Xn be the state on day n. {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a
DTMC on {0, 1, 2, 12} with tr pr matrix

α0 α1 α 2 α12
r1 1 − r1 0 0
P = .
r2 0 1 − r2 0
0 0 r1 1 − r1

Here we have assumed that if both components fail, we repair component 1 first, and
then component 2.

2.15. Let Xn be the pair that played the nth game. Then X0 = (1, 2). Suppose
Xn = (1, 2). Then the nth game is played between player 1 and 2. With probability
b12 player 1 wins the game, and the next game is played between players 1 and
3, thus making Xn+1 = (1, 3). On the other hand, player 2 wins the game with
probability b21 , and the next game is played between players 2 and 3, thus making
Xn+1 = (2, 3). Since the probabilities of winning are independent of the past, it is
clear that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC on state space {(1, 2), (2, 3), (1, 3)}. Using the
arguments as above, we see that the transition probabilities are given by

0 b21 b12
P = b23 0 b32 .
b13 b31 0

2.16. Let Xn be the number of beers at home when Mr. Al Anon goes to the store.
Then {(Xn , Yn ), n ≥ 0} is DTMC on state space

S = {(0, L), (1, L), (2, L), (3, L), (4, L), (0, H), (1, H), (2, H), (3, H), (4, H)}
10 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
with the following transition probability matrix:
0 0 0 0 α 0 0 0 0 1−α
0 0 0 0 α 0 0 0 0 1−α
0 0 0 0 α 0 0 0 0 1−α
0 0 0 0 α 0 0 0 0 1−α
0 0 0 0 α 0 0 0 0 1−α
.
1− β 0 0 0 0 β 0 0 0 0
1− β 0 0 0 0 β 0 0 0 0
0 1− β 0 0 0 0 β 0 0 0
0 0 1− β 0 0 0 0 β 0 0
0 0 0 1− β 0 0 0 0 β 0
2.17. We see that
Xn+1 = max{Xn , Yn+1 }.
Since the Yn ’s are iid, {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC. The state space is S = {0, 1, · · · , M }.
Now, for 0 ≤ i < j ≤ M ,
pi,j = P(max{Xn , Yn+1 } = j|Xn = i) = P(Yn = j) = αj .
Also,
Xi
pi,i = P(max{Xn , Yn+1 } = i|Xn = i) = P(Yn ≤ i) = αk .
k=0

2.18. Let Yn = u is the machine is up at time n and d if it is down at time n. If

Yn = u, let Xn be the remaining up time at time n; and if Yn = d, let Xn be the
remaining down time at time n. Then {(Xn , Yn ), n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with state space
S = {(i, j) : i ≥ 1, j = u, d}
and transition probabilities
p(i,j),(i−1,j) = 1, i ≥ 2, j = u, d,
p(1,u),(i,d) = di , p(1,d),(i,u) = ui , i ≥ 1.

2.19. Let Xn be the number of messages in the inbox at 8:00am on day n. Ms.
Friendly answers Zn = Bin(Xn , p) emails on day n. hence Xn − Zn = Bin(Xn , 1 −
p) emails are left for the next day. Yn is the number messages that arrive during
24 hours on day n. Hence at the beginning of the next day there Xn+1 = Yn +
Bin(Xn , 1 − p) in her mail box. Since {Yn , n ≥ 0} is iid, {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC.
2.20. Let Xn be the number of bytes in this buffer in slot n, after the input during
the slot and the removal (playing) of any bytes. We assume that the input during the
slot occurs before the removal. Thus
Xn+1 = max{min{Xn + An+1 , B} − 1, 0}.
DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR 11
Thus if Xn = 0 and there is no input, Xn+1 = 0. Similarly, if Xn = B, Xn+1 =
B − 1. The process {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a random walk on {0, ..., B − 1} with the
following transition probabilities:
p0,0 = α0 + α1 , p0,1 = α2 ,
pi,i−1 = α0 , pi,i = α1 , pi,i+1 = α2 , 0 < i < B − 1,
pB−1,B−1 = α1 + α2 ; pB−1,B−2 = α0 .

2.21. Let Xn be the number of passengers on the bus when it leaves the nth stop.
Let Dn+1 be the number of passengers that alight at the (n + 1)st stop. Since each
person on board the bus gets off with probability p in an independent fashion, Dn+1
is Bin(Xn , p) random variable. Also, Xn − Dn+1 is a Bin(Xn , 1 − p) random
variable. Yn+1 is the number of people that get on the bus at the (n + 1)st bus stop.
Hence
Xn+1 = min{Xn − Dn+1 + Yn+1 , B}.
Since {Yn , n ≥ 0} is a sequence of iid random variables, it follows from the above
recursive relationship, that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC. The state space is {0, 1, ..., B}.
For 0 ≤ i ≤ B, and 0 ≤ j < B, we have
pi,j = P(Xn+1 = j|Xn = i)
= P(Xn − Dn+1 + Yn+1 = j|Xn = i)
= P(Yn+1 − Bin(i, p) = j − i)
Xi
= P(Yn+1 − Bin(i, p) = j − i|Bin(i, p) = k)P(Bin(i, p) = k)
k=0
Xi
i k
= P(Yn+1 = k + j − i|Bin(i, p) = k) p (1 − p)i−k
k=0
k

i
X i k
= p (1 − p)i−k αk+j−i ,
k=0
k

where we use the convention that αk = 0 if k < 0. Finally,

B−1
X
pi,B = 1 − pij .
j=0

2.22. The state space is {−1, 0, 1, 2, ..., k −1}. The system is in state -1 at time n if
it is in economy mode after the n-th item is produced (and possibly inspected). It is in
state i (1 ≤ i ≤ k) if it is in 100% inspection mode and i consecutive non-defective
items have been found so far. The transition probabilities are
p−1,0 = p/r, p−1,−1 = 1 − p/r,
pi,i+1 = 1 − p, pi,0 = p, 0 ≤ i ≤ k − 2
12 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
pk−1,−1 = 1 − p, pk−1,0 = p.

2.23. Xn is the amount on hand at the beginning of the nth day, and Dn is the
demand during the nth day. Hence the amount on hand at the end of the nth day is
Xn − Dn . If this is s or more, no order is placed, and hence the amount on hand at
the beginning of the (n + 1)st day is Xn − Dn . On the other hand, if Xn − Dn < s,
then the inventory is brought upto S at the beginning of the next day, thus making
Xn+1 = S. Thus
Xn − Dn if Xn − Dn ≥ s,
Xn+1 =
S if Xn − Dn < s.
Since {Dn , n ≥ 0} are iid, {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC on state space {s, s + 1, ..., S −
1, S}. We compute the transition probabilities next. For s ≤ j ≤ i ≤ S, j = S, we
have
P(Xn+1 = j|Xn = i) = P(Xn − Dn = j|Xn = i)
= P(Dn = i − j) = αi−j .
and for s ≤ i < S, j = S we have
P(Xn+1 = S|Xn = i) = P(Xn − Dn < s|Xn = i)
∞
X
= P(Dn > i − s) = αk .
k=i−s

Finally

P(Xn+1 = S|Xn = S) = P(Xn − Dn < s, or Xn − Dn = S|Xn = S)

X∞
= P(Dn > S − s) + P(Dn = 0) = αk + α0 .
k=S−s+1

The transition probability matrix is given below:

α0 0 0 ... 0 b0
α1 α0 0 ... 0 b1
α2 α1 α0 ... 0 b2
P = ..
. . . . .
,
.
αS−s−1 .
αS−s−2 .
αS−s−3 . . .. α.0 .
bS−s−1 .
αS−s αS−s−1 αS−s−2 ... α1 α0 + b S
where ∞
X
bj = P(Dn > j) = αk .
k=j+1

2.24. The state space of {(Xn , Yn ), n ≥ 0} is

S = {(i, j) : i ≥ 0, j = 1, 2}.
DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR 13
Let ∞
X
βki = αij , k ≥ 1, i = 1, 2.
j=k

The transition probabilities are given by (see solution to Modeling Exercise 2.1)
p(i,1),(i+1,1) = β 1i+2 /βi+1
1
, i ≥ 0,
p(i,2),(i+1,2) = β 2i+2 /βi+1
2
, i ≥ 0,
p(i,1),(0,j) = vj α1i+1 /βi+1
1
, i ≥ 0,
p(i,2),(0,j) = vj α2i+1 /βi+1
2
, i ≥ 0.

2.25. Xn is the number of bugs in the program just before running it for the nth
time. Suppose Xn = k. Then no is discovered on the nth run with probability 1−βk ,a
nd hence Xn+1 = k. A bug will be discovered on the n run with probability βk , in
which case Yn additional bugs are introduced, (with P(Yn = i) = αi , i = 0, 1, 2)
and Xn+1 = k − 1 + Yn . Hence, given Xn = k,
k −1 with probability βk α0 = qk
Xn+1 = k with probability βk α1 + 1 − βk = rk
k+1 with probability βk α2 = pk
Thus {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with state space {0, 1, 2, ...} with transition proba-
bility matrix
1 0 0 0 0 ...
q1 r1 p1 0 0 ...
P = 0 q2 r2 p2 0 ... .
0 0 q3 r3 p3 ...

..
. . . . . .

2.26. Xn = number of active rumor mongers at time n.

Yn = number of individuals who have not heard the rumor up to and including time
n.
Zn = number of individuals who have heard the rumor up to and including time n,
but have stopped spreading it.
The rumor spreading process is modeled as a three dimensional process {(Xn , Yn , Zn ), n ≥
0}. We shall show that it is a DTMC.
Since the total number of individuals in the colony is N , we must have
Xn + Yn + Zn = N, n ≥ 0.
Now let An be the number of individuals who hear the rumor for the first time at
time n + 1. Now, an individual who has not heard the rumor by time n does not hear
it by time n + 1 if each the Xn rumor mongers at time n fails to contact him at time
n + 1. The probability of that is ((N − 2)/(N − 1))Xn . Hence
An ∼ Bin(Yn , 1 − ((N − 2)/(N − 1))Xn ).
14 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
Similarly, let Bn be the number of active rumor-mongers at time n that become
inactive at tiem n + 1. An active rumor monger becomes inactive if he contacts a
person whos has already heard the rumor. The probability of that is (Xn + Yn −
1)/(N − 1). Hence
Bn ∼ Bin(Xn , (Xn + Yn − 1)/(N − 1)).
Now, from the definitions of the various random variables involved,
Xn+1 = Xn − Bn + An ,
Yn+1 = Yn − An ,
Zn+1 = Zn + Bn .
Thus {(Xn , Yn , Zn ), n ≥ 0} is a DTMC.

2.27. {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with state space S = {rr, dr, dd}, since gene type
of the n+1st generation only depends on that of the parents in the nth generation. We
are given that X0 = rr. Hence, the parents of the first generation are rr, dd. Hence
X1 is dr with probability 1. If Xn is dr, then the parents of the (n + 1)st generation
are dr and dd. Hence the (n + 1)th generation is dr or dd with probability .5 each.
Once the nth generation is dd it stays dd from then on. Hence transition probability
matrix is given by
0 1 0
P = 0 .5 .5 .
0 0 1

2.28. Using the analysis in 2.27, we see that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with state
space S = {rr, dr, dd} with the following transition probability matrix:
.5 .5 0
P = .25 .5 .25 .
0 .5 .5

2.29. Let Xn be the number of recipients in the nth generation. There are 20
recipients to begin with. Hence X0 = 20. Let Yi , n be the number of letters sent out
by the ith recipient in the nthe generation. The {Yi,n : n ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, ..., Xn } are
iid random variables with common pmf given below:
P(Yi,n = 0) = 1 − α; P(Yi,n = 20 = α.
The number of recipients in the (n + 1)st generation are given by
Xn
X
Xn+1 = Yi,n .
i=1

Thus {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a branching process, following the terminology of Section 2.2.

DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR 15
Note that we cannot start with X0 = 1 since we would need to use Y1,0 = 20 with
probability 1, which is different distribution from the other Yi,n s. This would invali-
date the assumptions of a branching process.

2.30. Let Xn be the number of backlogged packets at the beginning of the nth
slot. Furthermore, let In be the collision indicator defined as follows: In = id if
there are no transmissions in the (n − 1)st slot (idle slot), In = s if there is exactly 1
transmission in the (n − 1)st slot (successful slot), and In = e if there are 2 or more
transmissions in the (n − 1)st slot (error or collision in the slot). We shall model
the state of the system at the beginning of the n the slot by (Xn , In ). Now suppose
Xn = i, In = s. Then, the backlogged packets retry with probability r. Hence, we
get
P(Xn+1 = i − 1, In+1 = s|Xn = i, In = s) = (1 − p)N −i ir(1 − r)i−1 ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = s|Xn = i, In = s) = (N − i)p(1 − p)N −i−1 (1 − r)i ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = id|Xn = i, In = s) = (1 − p)(N −i) (1 − r)i ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = s) = (1 − p)(N −i) (1 − (1 − r)i − ir(1 − r)i−1 ).
P(Xn+1 = i + 1, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = s) = (N − i)p(1 − p)N −i−1 (1 − (1 − r)i )
N −i i
P(Xn+1 = i + j, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = s) = p (1 − p)N −i−j , 2 ≤ j ≤ N − i.
j

Next suppose Xn = i, In = id. Then, the backlogged packets retry with probability
r 00 > r. The above equations become:
P(Xn+1 = i − 1, In+1 = s|Xn = i, In = id) = (1 − p)N −i ir 0 (1 − r 0 )i−1 ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = s|Xn = i, In = id) = (N − i)p(1 − p)N −i−1 (1 − r 0 )i ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = id|Xn = i, In = id) = (1 − p)(N −i) (1 − r 0 )i ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = id) = (1 − p)(N −i) (1 − (1 − r 0 )i − ir 0 (1 − r 0 )i−1 ).
P(Xn+1 = i + 1, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = id) = (N − i)p(1 − p)N −i−1 (1 − (1 − r 0 )i )
N −i i
P(Xn+1 = i + j, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = id) = p (1 − p)N −i−j , 2 ≤ j ≤ N − i.
j

Finally, suppose Xn = i, In = e. Then, the backlogged packets retry with probabil-

ity r 00 < r. The above equations become:
P(Xn+1 = i − 1, In+1 = s|Xn = i, In = e) = (1 − p)N −i ir 00 (1 − r 00 )i−1 ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = s|Xn = i, In = e) = (N − i)p(1 − p)N −i−1 (1 − r 00 )i ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = id|Xn = i, In = e) = (1 − p)(N −i) (1 − r 00 )i ,
P(Xn+1 = i, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = e) = (1 − p)(N −i) (1 − (1 − r 00 )i − ir 00 (1 − r 00 )i−1 ).
P(Xn+1 = i + 1, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = e) = (N − i)p(1 − p)N −i−1 (1 − (1 − r 00 )i )
N −i i
P(Xn+1 = i + j, In+1 = e|Xn = i, In = e) = p (1 − p)N −i−j , 2 ≤ j ≤ N − i.
j

This shows that {(Xn , In ), n ≥ 0} is a DTMC with transition probabilities given

16 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
above.

2.31. Let Xn be the number of packets ready for transmission at time n. Let Yn be
the number of packets that arrive during time (n, n + 1]. If Xn = 0, no packets are
transmitted during the nth slot and we have
Xn+1 = Yn .
If Xn > 0, exactly one packet is transmitted during the nth time slot. Hence,
Xn+1 = Xn − 1 + Yn .
Since {Yn , n ≥ 0} are iid, we see that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is identical to the DTMC given
in Example 2.16.

2.32. Let Yi,n , i = 1, 2, be the number of non-defective items in the inventory

of the ith machine at time n, after all production and any assembly at time n is
done. Since the assembly is instantaneous, both Y1,n and Y2,n cannot be positive
simultaneously. Now define
Xn = B2 + Y1,n − Y2,n .
The state space of {Xn , n ≥ 0} is S = {0, 1, 2, ..., B1 + B2 − 1, M1 + M2 }. Now,
Xn = k > B2 ⇒ Y1,n = k − B2 , Y2,n = 0,
Xn = k < B2 ⇒ Y1,n = 0, Y2,n = B2 − k,
Xn = k = B2 ⇒ Y1,n = 0, Y2,n = 0.
Thus Xn contains complete information about Y1,n and Y2,n . {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a
random walk on S as in Example 2.5 with
α1 if n = 0,
pn,n+1 = pn =
α1 (1 − α2 ) if 0 < n < B1 + B2 ,
α2 if n = B1 + B2 ,
pn,n−1 = qn =
α2 (1 − α1 ) if 0 < n < B1 + B2 ,

1 − α1 if n = 0,
pn,n = rn = α1 α2 + (1 − α1 )(1 − α2 ) if 0 < n < B1 + B2 ,
1 − α2 if n = B1 + B2 .
2.33. Let Xn be the age of the light bulb in place at time n. Using the solution
to Modeling Exercise 2.1, we see that {Xn , n ≥ 0} is a success-runs DTMC on
{0, 1, ..., K − 1} with
qi = pi+1 /bi+1 , pi = 1 − qi , 0 ≤ i ≤ K − 2, qK−1 = 1,
P∞
where bi = P (Zn ≥ i) = j=i pj .

2.34. The same three models of reader behavior in Section 2.3.7 work if we con-
sider a citation from paper i to paper j as link from webpage i to web page j, and
action of visiting a page is taken to the same as actually looking up a paper.
DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR 17
Computational
Exercises
2.1. Let Xn be the number of white balls in urn A after n experiments. {Xn , n ≥
0} is a DTMC on {0, 1, ..., 10} with the following transition probability matrix:

0 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.01 0.18 0.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0.04 0.32 0.64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0.09 0.42 0.49 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0.16 0.48 0.36 0 0 0 0 0
P = 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.50 0.25 0 0 0 0 .
0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.48 0.16 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0.49 0.42 0.09 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.64 0.32 0.04 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.81 0.18 0.01
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.00 0

Using the equation given in Example 2.21 we get the following table:
n X0 = 8 X0 = 5 X0 = 3
0 8.0000 5.0000 3.0000
1 7.4000 5.0000 3.4000
2 6.9200 5.0000 3.7200
3 6.5360 5.0000 3.9760
4 6.2288 5.0000 4.1808
5 5.9830 5.0000 4.3446
6 5.7864 5.0000 4.4757
7 5.6291 5.0000 4.5806
8 5.5033 5.0000 4.6645
9 5.4027 5.0000 4.7316
10 5.3221 5.0000 4.7853
11 5.2577 5.0000 4.8282
12 5.2062 5.0000 4.8626
13 5.1649 5.0000 4.8900
14 5.1319 5.0000 4.9120
15 5.1056 5.0000 4.9296
16 5.0844 5.0000 4.9437
17 5.0676 5.0000 4.9550
18 5.0540 5.0000 4.9640
19 5.0432 5.0000 4.9712
20 5.0346 5.0000 4.9769

2.2. Let P be the transition probability matrix and a the initial distribution given
in the problem.
18 DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAINS: TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR
1. Let a(2) be the pmf of X2 . It is given by Equation 2.31. Substituting for a and P
we get
a(2) = [0.2050 0.0800 0.1300 0.3250 0.2600].
2.
P(X2 = 2, X4 = 5) = P(X4 = 5|X2 = 2)P(X2 = 2)
= P(X2 = 5|X0 = 2) ∗ (.0800)
= [P 2 ]2,5 ∗ (.0800)
= (.0400) ∗ (.0800) = .0032.
3.
P(X7 = 3|X3 = 4) = P(X4 = 3|X0 = 4)
= [P 4 ]4,3
= .0318.
4.
5
X
P(X1 ∈ {1, 2, 3}, X2 ∈ {4, 5}) = P(X1 ∈ {1, 2, 3}, X2 ∈ {4, 5}|X0 = i)P(X0 = i)
i=1

5
X 3 X
X 5
= ai P(X1 = j, X2 = k}|X0 = i)
i=1 j=1 k=4
5 3 5

X X X
= ai pi,j pj,k
i=1 j =1 k=4
= .4450.

2.3. Easiest way is to prove this by induction. Assume a+b = 2. Using the formula
given in Computational Exercise 3, we see that
1 1−b 1−a 1 1−a a −1 1 0
P0 = + =
1−b 1− a , b−1 1−b
2−a −b 2−a −b 0 1
and

1 1−b 1−a a + b −1 1−a a −1 a 1−a

P1 = 1−b 1− a + b−1 1−b = 1−b .
2−a −b 2−a −b b

Thus the formula is valid for n = 0 and n = 1. Now suppose it is valid for n = k ≥
1. Then
P k+1 = Pk ∗P
1 1−b 1− a (a+ b−1)k 1−a a−1 a 1−a
= ∗
+
1−b 1− a b−1 1−b , 1−b
2−a −b 2−a −b b

1 1−b 1− a (a+ b−1)k+1 1−a a−1

=
+
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
When a woman has explicitly condemned a given action, she
apparently gathers courage for its commission under a little
different conditions.
Howells.

The homage of a man may be delightful until he asks straight

for love, by which woman renders homage.
George Eliot.

The Divine Right of Beauty is the only one an Englishman ought

to acknowledge, and a pretty woman is the only tyrant he is not
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Junius.

The beauty of a lovely woman is like music.

George Eliot.

If there be any one whose power is in beauty, in purity, in

goodness, it is woman.
Ward Beecher.
God created woman only to tame man.
Voltaire.

O woman! it is thou that causeth the tempests that agitate

mankind.
Rousseau.

The laughter, the tears, and the song of a woman are equally
deceptive.
Latin Proverb.

A woman’s lot is made for her by the love she accepts.

George Eliot.

Woman is an idol that man worships until he throws it down.

Anonymous.

She who dresses for others besides her husband, marks herself
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Euripides.
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life which she charmeth.
Schiller.

Men are the cause of women’s dislike for one another.

La Bruyère.

The beautiful woman always gives me joy, and a high mind, too,
if I think what she does for me.
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Women have the genius of charity. A man gives but his gold; a
woman adds to it her sympathy.
Legouvé.

A woman’s preaching is like a dog’s walking on his hind legs. It

is not done well, but you are surprised to find it done at all.
Johnson.
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woman than she is herself.
Anonymous.

The devastating egotism of man is properly foreign to woman;

though there are many women as haughty, hard and imperious
as any man.
Alger.

There are some women who think virtue was given them as
claws were given to cats—to do nothing but scratch with.
Jerrold.

An immodest woman is food without salt.

Arabian Proverb.

The evil in women is usually communicated by men. Much of

the deceit of which they are accused is the effect of masculine
inoculation.
Browne.
The lover never sees personal resemblances in his mistress to
her kindred or to others.
Emerson.

The friendship of a man is often a support; that of a woman is

always a consolation.
Rochepedre.

Woman is the blood royal of life; let there be slight degrees of

precedence among them, but let them all be sacred.
Burns.

The woman who is resolved to be respected can make herself to

be so, even amidst an army of soldiers.
Cervantes.

To form devices quick is woman’s wit.

Euripides.

Woman’s power is over the affections. A beautiful dominion is

hers, but she risks its forfeiture when she seeks to extend it.
 Bovée.

To remain virtuous, a man has only to combat his own desires;

a woman must resist her own inclinations and the continual
attack of man.
De Latena.

A cunning woman is a knavish fool.

Lyttleton.

A woman often thinks she regrets the lover, when she only
regrets the love.
La Rochefoucauld.

Even the satyrs, like men, in one way or another, could win the
love of a woman.
Malcolm Johnson.

You wish to create Eve over again, or rather to call forth a

female Adam. I object.
Sheldon.
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estimation of him.
Thackeray.

In love, she who gives her portrait promises the original.

Dupuy.

The man who seems to care little whether he charms or attracts

women is he who offends and seduces.
Goethe.

To correct the faults of man, we address the head; to correct

those of woman, we address the heart.
De Beauchêne.

The man flaps about with a bunch of feathers: the woman goes
to work softly with a cloth.
Holmes.
Glory can be for a woman but the brilliant mourning of
happiness.
Mme. de Stael.

Women have more of what is termed good sense than men.

They cannot reason wrong, for they do not reason at all.
Hazlitt.

In anger against a rival, all women, even duchesses, employ

invective. Then they make use of everything as a weapon.
Anonymous.

What is civilisation? I answer, the power of good women.

Emerson.

Science seldom renders men amiable; women, never.

Beauchêne.

The egotism of woman is always for two.

Mme. de Stael.
The wisest woman you talk with is ignorant of something that
you know, but an elegant woman never forgets her elegance.
Holmes.

A widow is like a frigate of which the first captain has been

shipwrecked.
Karr.

Where women are, are all kinds of mischief.

Menander.

Woman is the symbol of moral and physical beauty.

Gautier.

No man knows what the wife of his bosom is—no man knows
what a ministering angel she is—until he has gone with her
through the fiery trials of this world.
Washington Irving.
Women have, in general, but one object, which is their beauty;
upon which scarce any flattery is too gross for them.
Chesterfield.

If Cleopatra’s nose had been shorter, the face of the whole

world would have been changed.
Pascal.

A worthless girl has enslaved me,—me, whom no enemy ever

did.
Epictetus.

An indigent female, the object probably of love and tenderness

in her youth, at a more advanced age a withered flower, has
nothing to do but retire and die.
Hall.

In love affairs, from innocence to the fault, there is but a kiss.

Alberic Second.
The destiny of women is to please, to be amiable, and to be
loved.
Rochebrune.

A beautiful woman is the paradise of the eyes, the hell of the

soul, and the purgatory of the purse.
Anonymous.

If you would make a pair of good shoes, take for the sole the
tongue of a woman; it never wears out.
Alsatian Proverb.

One is always a woman’s first lover.

De Laclos.

A man must be a fool who does not succeed in making a

woman believe that which flatters her.
Balzac.

I have seen faces of women that were fair to look upon, yet one
could see that the icicles were forming round these women’s
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Holmes.

The highest mark of esteem a woman can give a man is to ask

his friendship, and the most signal proof of her indifference is to
offer him hers.
Anonymous.

The fire of woman’s passion, consuming the wilderness of her

limitation, rises to the pure flame that has blazed on every altar
of Eros between the Nile and the Columbia.
Browne.

Frailty! thy name is woman.

Shakespeare.

The tears of a young widow lose their bitterness when wiped by

the hands of love.
Anonymous.
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eternal consequences, with a keen interest in gimp and artificial
protrusions of drapery.
George Eliot.

Venus herself, if she were bald, would not be Venus.

Apuleius.

Women often deceive to conceal what they feel; men to

simulate what they do not feel—love.
Legouvé.

Women are the happiest beings of the creation; in

compensation for our services, they reward us with a happiness
of which they retain more than half.
De Varennes.

No woman is too silly not to have a genius for spite.

Anonymous.
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chief relation of her life has been a mistake. She has lost her
crown.
George Eliot.

There are plenty of women who believe women to be incapable

of anything but to cook, incapable of interest in affairs.
Emerson.

A woman is happy and attains all that she desires when she
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The secret of youthful looks in an aged face is easy shoes, easy

corsets and an easy conscience.
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Who does not know the bent of woman’s fancy?

Spenser.
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De Souderi.

Every great passion is but a prolonged hope.

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Beauty in woman is power.

De Rotrou.

We are by no means aware how much we are influenced by our

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La Rochefoucauld.

To love is to admire with the heart; to admire is to love with the

mind.
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Glances are the first billets-doux of love.

De L’Enclos.
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age; one is lost in them, the other hidden.
Petit-Senn.

Where pride begins, love ends.

Lavater.

The girl who wakes the poet’s sigh is a very different creature
from the girl who makes his soup.
Sheldon.

Women know a point more than the devil.

Italian Proverb.

To a gentleman every woman is a lady in right of her sex.

Lytton.

Did you ever hear of a man’s growing lean by the reading of

“Romeo and Juliet,” or blowing his brains out because
Desdemona was maligned?
 Holmes.

Great women belong to history and to self-sacrifice.

Leigh Hunt.

The heart of a coquette is like a rose, of which the lovers pluck

the leaves, leaving only the thorns for the husband.
Anonymous.

In our age women commonly preserve the publication of their

good offices and their vehement affection toward their
husbands until they have lost them.
Montaigne.

When women cannot be revenged, they do as children do—they

then cry.
Cardan.

At twenty, man is less a lover of woman than of women; he is

more in love with the sex than with the individual, however
charming she may be.
 La Bretonne.

The man who has taken one wife deserves a crown of patience;
the man who has taken two deserves two crowns of pity.
Proverb.

The knowledge of the charms one possesses prompts one to

utilise them.
Sénancourt.

There is no more agreeable companion than the one woman

who loves us.
St Pierre.

Jealousy is the sister of love, as the devil is the brother of the

angels.
Boufflers.

Men bestow compliments only on women who deserve none.

Bachi.
Two smiles that approach each other end in a kiss.
Hugo.

There is in every true woman’s heart a spark of heavenly fire,

which beams and blazes in the dark hours of adversity.
Washington Irving.

A woman is never displeased if we please several other women,

provided she is preferred. It is so many more triumphs for her.
Ninon de L’Enclos.

There is a woman at the beginning of all great things.

Lamartine.

Women prefer us to say a little evil of them, rather than to say

nothing of them at all.
Ricard.
One syllable of woman’s speech can dissolve more of love than
a man’s heart can hold.
Holmes.

Women, deceived by men, want to marry them; it is a kind of

revenge, as good as any other.
Beaumanoir.

A woman is seldom tenderer to a man than immediately after

she has deceived him.
Anonymous.

Women like balls and assemblies, as a hunter likes a place

where game abounds.
De Latena.

Fortune rules in nuptials; women are as like to turn out badly as

to prove a source of joy.
Euripides.

One of the sweetest pleasures of a woman is to cause regret.

 Chevalier.

Man without woman is head without body; woman without man

is body without head.
German Proverb.

Wrinkles disfigure a woman less than ill-nature.

Dupuy.

I am sure I do not mean it an injury to women when I say there

is a sort of sex in souls.
Steele.

A woman, when she has passed forty becomes an illegible

scrawl; only an old woman is capable of divining old women.
Balzac.

A beautiful woman is never silly; she has the best wit that a
man may ask of a woman, she is pretty.
Stahl.
All the reasons of men are not worth one sentiment of woman.
Voltaire.

A man never knows how to live until a woman has lived with
him.
Mere.

It may not be impossible to find a constant heart in an

unfaithful body.
Stahl.

Women may be pardoned for lack of common sense. The culprit

in them is the heart.
Stahl.

The history of love would be the history of humanity; it would

be a beautiful book to write.
Nodier.
Love is composed of so many sensations, that something new of
it can always be said.
Saint Prosper.

A woman is frank when she is not uselessly untruthful.

France.

Jealousy for a woman is only a wound to self-respect. In man it

is a torture profound as moral suffering, continuous as physical
suffering.
France.

Love preserves beauty, and the flesh of woman is fed with

caresses as are bees with flowers.
France.

Every lover who tries to find in love anything else than love is
not a lover.
Bourget.

One must be sensual to be human.

 France.

When a lover gives, he demands—and much more than he has

given.
Parry.

In most men there is a dead poet whom the man survives.

St Beuve.

The Egyptian people, wisest then of nations, gave to their Spirit

of Wisdom the form of a woman; and into her hand, for a
symbol, the weaver’s shuttle.
Ruskin.

The life of a woman can be divided into three epochs; in the

first she dreams of love, in the second she experiences it, in the
third she regrets it.
Saint Prosper.

The ruses of women multiply with their years.

Proverb.
Women wish to be loved, not because they are pretty or good
or well-bred or graceful or intelligent, but because they are
themselves.
Amiel.

Society depends upon women. The nations who confine them

are unsociable.
Voltaire.

A beautiful woman with the qualities of a noble man is the most

perfect thing in nature.
La Bruyère.

Woman, in accordance with her unbroken, clear-seeing nature,

loses herself and what she has of heart and happiness in the
object she loves.
Richter.

Society is the book of women.

Rousseau.
Women, like princes, find few real friends.
Lyttleton.

In love affairs, a young shepherdess is a better partner than an

old queen.
De Finod.

To “Get out of my house,” and “What do you want with my

wife?” there is no answer.
Don Quixote.

Our ice-eyed brain women are really admirable if we only ask of

them just what they can give, and no more.
Holmes.

A marriageable girl is a kind of merchandise that can be

negotiated at wholesale only on condition that no one takes a
part at retail.
Karr.

Woman is a flower that exhales her perfume only in the shade.

 De Lamennais.

An honest woman is the one we fear to compromise.

Balzac.

A woman, the more curious she is about her face, is commonly

the more careless about her home.
Ben Jonson.

Heaven has refused genius to woman, in order to concentrate

all the fire in her heart.
Rivarol.

The two pleasantest days of a woman are her marriage day and
the day of her funeral.
Hipponax.

A woman who writes commits two sins; she increases the

number of books, and decreases the number of women.
Karr.
A lady’s wish—he said, with a certain gallantry of manner—
makes slaves of us all.
Holmes.

In nineteen cases out of twenty, for a woman to play her heart

in the game of love is to play at cards with a sharper, and gold
coin against counterfeit pieces.
Bourget.

Women are at ease in perfidy, as are serpents in bushes.

Feuillet.

Women see without looking; their husbands often look without

seeing.
Desnoyers.

Most women who ride well on horseback have little tenderness.

Like the Amazons, they lack a breast.
Anonymous.
Earth has nothing more tender than a woman’s heart when it is
the abode of pity.
Luther.

In wishing to control her empire, woman destroys it.

Canabis.

Wherever women are honoured, the gods are satisfied.

Laws of Manu.

To a woman, the romances she makes are more amusing than

those she reads.
Gautier.

Women give themselves to God when the devil wants nothing

more with them.
Sophie Arnould.

Sensualism intrudes into the education of young women, and

withers the hope and affection of human nature.
 Emerson.

All the reasoning of man is not worth one sentiment of woman.

Voltaire.

When an old crone frolics, she flirts with death.

Syrus.

There never was in any age such a wonder to be found as a

dumb woman.
Plautus.

Wives are young men’s mistresses, companions for middle age,

and old men’s nurses.
Bacon.

Tenderness has no deeper source than the heart of a woman,

devotion no purer shrine, sacrifice no more saint-like
abnegation.
Saint-Foix.
It is difficult for a woman to keep a secret; and I know more
than one man who is a woman.
Lafontaine.

All the evil that women have done to us comes from us, and all
the good they have done to us comes from them.
Aimi Martin.

Have a useful and good wife in the house, or don’t marry at all.
Euripides.

There are beautiful flowers that are scentless, and beautiful

women that are unlovable.
Houelle.

None can do a woman worse despite than to call her old.

Ariosto.
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