Lecture - Ch 16_4cb65b8499891f7055adb3e4c41efe09
Lecture - Ch 16_4cb65b8499891f7055adb3e4c41efe09
ESSENTIALS OF
ECONOMICS
CHAPTER
Measuring the
16 Cost of Living
Interactive PowerPoint Slides by:
V. Andreea Chiritescu
Eastern Illinois University
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IN THIS CHAPTER
• What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
How is it calculated? What’s it used for?
• What are the problems with the CPI? How
serious are they?
• How does the CPI differ from the GDP
deflator?
• How can we use the CPI to compare dollar
amounts from different years? Why would we
want to do this, anyway?
• How can we correct interest rates for inflation?
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The Consumer Price Index
• Consumer price index (CPI)
– Measure of the overall cost of goods and
services bought by a typical consumer
– Monitor changes in the cost of living over time
• Core CPI
– A measure of the overall cost of consumer
goods and services excluding food and energy
• Producer price index (PPI)
– A measure of the cost of a basket of goods and
services bought by firms
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How the CPI Is Calculated – 1
1. Fix the basket
– The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys
consumers to determine what’s in the typical
consumer’s “shopping basket.”
2. Find the prices
– The BLS collects data on the prices of all the
goods in the basket.
3. Compute the basket’s cost
– Use the prices to compute the total cost of the
basket.
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How the CPI Is Calculated – 2
4. Chose a base year and compute the CPI
• Designate a year as base year (benchmark)
CPI = [Basket’s cost in current year / Basket’s
cost in base year] × 100
5. Compute the inflation rate
• Percentage change in the CPI from the
preceding period
CPI this year−CPI last year
Inflation rate = ×100
CPI last year
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EXAMPLE 1: Market basket: 10 pizzas, 5 shirts
Price of Price of
year Cost of basket
pizza shirts
2017 $12 $18 $12 × 10 + $18 × 5 = $210
2018
2019
$14
$16
S $20 $14 × 10 + $20 × 5 = $240
$22 $16 × 10 + $22 × 5 = $270
Compute CPI in each year (2017 base year)
In'lation rate
2017: 100 x ($210/$210) = 100 114.3 − 100
14.3% = ×100
100
2018: 100 x ($240/$210) = 114.3 128.6 − 114.3
2019: 100 x ($270/$210) = 128.6 &12.5% =
114.3
×100
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Active Learning 1: Calculate CPI & inflation rate
CPI basket: Price of Price of
year
10 lbs of beef, beef chicken
2017 $3 $3
20 lbs of chicken
2018 $4 $4
Base year: 2017 2019 $8 $5
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Active Learning 1: Answers (10 beef, 20 chicken)
Price of Price of
year Cost of basket
beef chicken
2017 $3 $3 $3×10+$3×20 = $90
2018 $4 $4 $4×10+$4×20 = $120
2019 $8 $5 $8×10+$5×20 = $180
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Active Learning 2: A new basket, CPI & inflation rate
&
A. Calculate cost of the new basket for 2019
and the CPI for 2019.
B. What’s the new inflation rate from 2018-
2019?
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Active Learning 2: Answers
Price of Price of
year
beef chicken
A. Cost of basket
2017 $3 $3 $90
2018 $4 $4 $120
2019 $8 $5 $8×5+$5×25 = $165
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Problems with the CPI – 1
• Substitution Bias
– Over time, some prices rise faster than
others
– Consumers substitute toward goods that
become relatively cheaper, mitigating the
effects of price increases.
– The CPI misses this substitution because it
uses a fixed basket of goods.
– Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the
cost of living.
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Problems with the CPI – 2
• Introduction of New Goods
– The introduction of new goods increases
variety, allows consumers to find products
that more closely meet their needs.
– In effect, dollars become more valuable.
– The CPI misses this effect because it uses
a fixed basket of goods.
– Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the
cost of living.
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Problems with the CPI – 3
• Unmeasured Quality Change
– Improvements in the quality of goods in
the basket increase the value of each
dollar.
– The BLS tries to account for quality
changes but probably misses some, as
quality is hard to measure.
– Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the
cost of living.
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Two measures of inflation, 1965–2019
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GDP Deflator vs. CPI
• Imported consumer goods:
– Included in CPI but excluded from GDP deflator
• Capital goods: -needed for production
– Excluded from CPI but included in GDP deflator
(if produced domestically)
• The basket:
– CPI: fixed basket; prices of all goods and
services bought by consumers
– GDP deflator: prices of all goods and services
currently produced domestically
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Active Learning 3: CPI vs. GDP deflator
In each scenario, determine the effects on
the CPI and the GDP deflator.
A. Starbucks raises the price of muffins.
B. Caterpillar raises the price of the industrial
tractors it manufactures at its Illinois
factory.
C. Armani raises the price of the Italian jeans
it sells in the U.S.
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Active Learning 3: Answers
A. Starbucks raises the price of muffins.
The CPI and GDP deflator both rise.
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EXAMPLE 2: Great-grandpa’s salary
Your great grandpa’s first full time job was as
a car mechanic in 1963, and he was earning
$310/month.
CPI in 1963: 30.9
CPI in 2019: 256.6
• How much great grandpa’s earnings are in
current dollars?
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Active Learning 4: Comparing tuition increases
Tuition and Fees at U.S. Colleges and Universities
1990 2018
Private non-profit 4-year $9,340 $35,830
v
Real interest rate =
= (nominal interest rate) – (inflation rate)
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Example 3: Real vs. nominal interest rates
Amir received a $1,000 end-of-year bonus at his
job. He deposits the $1,000 in his savings
account for one year. The nominal interest rate is
9%. During that year, inflation is 3.5%.
• At the end of the year, is Amir able to buy more
or fewer goods with his money? How much?
$2 9y-
if P $
=
Real
Nominal
Interest rate (percent per year)
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THINK-PAIR-SHARE
Your grandfather quit smoking cigarettes
in 1995. When you ask him why he quit, you
get a surprising answer. Instead of reciting
the health benefits of quitting smoking, he
says, “I quit because it was just getting too
expensive. I started smoking in 1965 in
Vietnam and cigarettes were only 45 cents a
pack. The last pack I bought was $2.00 and I
just couldn’t justify spending more than four
times as much on cigarettes as I used to.”
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THINK-PAIR-SHARE
Price in 1965: $0.45 Price now (~1995): $2.00
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
. 2 182
=
0 45
.
↑
↑ actual
price
1965
pric in
today's $
a 2 .4 =
CHAPTER IN A NUTSHELL
• The consumer price index (CPI) shows the
cost of a basket of goods and services
relative to the cost of the same basket in the
base year.
• Used to measure the overall level of prices in
the economy.
• The percentage change in the CPI measures
the inflation rate.
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CHAPTER IN A NUTSHELL
• The CPI overstates true inflation:
• It does not take into account consumers’ ability
to substitute toward goods that become
relatively cheaper over time
• It does not take into account increases in the
purchasing power of the dollar that result from
the introduction of new goods.
• It is distorted by unmeasured changes in the
quality of goods and services
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CHAPTER IN A NUTSHELL
• Like the CPI, the GDP deflator measures the
overall level of prices in the economy.
• The two price indexes usually move together
• The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it
reflects the prices of goods and services
produced domestically rather than of goods and
services bought by consumers.
• While the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods, the
group of goods and services reflected in the
GDP deflator automatically changes over time
as the composition of GDP changes.
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CHAPTER IN A NUTSHELL
• To compare a dollar figure from the past with
a dollar figure today, the older figure should
be inflated using a price index.
• Various laws and private contracts use price
indexes to correct for the effects of inflation.
Tax laws, however, are only partially
indexed for inflation.
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CHAPTER IN A NUTSHELL
• Correcting for inflation is especially
important when looking at data on interest
rates.
• The nominal interest rate is the rate at which the
number of dollars in a savings account
increases over time.
• The real interest rate is the rate at which the
purchasing power of a savings account
increases over time. It equals the nominal
interest rate minus the rate of inflation.
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