Chapter 8

Scheduling

Copyright 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Useful Abbreviations

• CPM - Critical Path Method

• PERT - Program Evaluation and Review Technique

8-2
Background (Slide 1 of 2)

• Schedule is the conversion of a project action plan

into an operating timetable
• Basis for monitoring a project
• One of the major project management tools
• Work changes daily, so a detailed plan is essential
• Not all project activities need to be scheduled at the
same level of detail

8-3
Background (Slide 2 of 2)

• Most of the scheduling is at the WBS level, not the

work package level
• Only the most critical work packages may be shown
on the schedule
• Most of the scheduling is based on network
drawings

8-4
Network Scheduling Advantage (Slide 1 of 2)

• Consistent framework
• Shows interdependences
• Shows when resources are needed
• Ensures proper communication
• Determines expected completion date
• Identifies critical activities

8-5
Network Scheduling Advantage (Slide 2 of 2)

• Shows which of the activities can be delayed

• Determines start dates
• Shows which task must be coordinated
• Shows which task can be run parallel
• Relieves some conflict
• Allows probabilistic estimates

8-6
Network Scheduling Techniques:
PERT (ADM) and CPM (PDM)

• PERT was developed for the Polaris

missile/submarine project in 1958
• CPM developed by DuPont during the same time
• Initially, CPM and PERT were two different
approaches
• CPM used deterministic time estimates and allowed
project crunching
• PERT used probabilistic time estimates
• Microsoft Project (and others) have blended CPM
and PERT into one approach

8-7
Terminology (Slide 1 of 3)

• Activity - A specific task or set of tasks that are

required by the project, use up resources, and take
time to complete
• Event - The result of completing one or more
activities
• Network - The combination of all activities and
events that define a project
• Drawn left-to-right
• Connections represent predecessors

8-8
Terminology (Slide 2 of 3)

• Path - A series of connected activities

• Critical - An activity, event, or path which, if delayed,
will delay the completion of the project
• Critical Path - The path through the project where, if
any activity is delayed, the project is delayed
• There is always a critical path
• There can be more than one critical path

8-9
Terminology (Slide 3 of 3)

• Sequential Activities - One activity must be

completed before the next one can begin
• Parallel Activities - The activities can take place at
the same time
• Immediate Predecessor - That activity that must be
completed just before a particular activity can begin

8-10
Sequential Activities

8-11
AON and AOA Format

8-12
Constructing the Network

• Begin with START activity

• Add activities without precedences as nodes
• There will always be one
• May be more
• Add activities that have those activities as
precedences
• Continue

8-13
Sample of Network Construction

8-14
Sample of Network Construction

8-15
Gantt (Bar) Charts

• Developed by Henry L. Gantt

• Shows planned and actual progress
• Easy-to-read method to know the current status

8-16
Advantages and Disadvantage

• Advantages
• Easily understood
• Provide a picture of the current state of a project
• Disadvantage
• Difficult to follow complex projects

8-17
Microsoft Project Gantt Chart

8-18
Microsoft Project AON Network

8-19
An Important Aside on Estimating
Activity Times
• It is vital to good project management to be
meticulously honest in estimating the time required
to complete each of the various tasks included in the
project
• No false deadlines
• Evaluate alternative ways of completing work.

8-20
Solving the Network

8-21
The AON Network From The Previous Table

8-22
Calculating Activity Times
• Use three time estimates:
• Optimistic
• Pessimistic
• Most likely

8-23
Calculating Activity Times

TE =
(a + 4m + b )
6
 (b − a ) 
2

 =
2

 6 
=  2

8-24
The Results

8-25
 Parkinson’s Law

• Work expands to fill the allotted time

8-26
Critical Path and Time (Slide 1 of 2)

8-27
Critical Path and Time (Slide 2 of 2)

8-28
Slack (aka, Float)
• LS - ES or LF - EF

8-29
Slack Values

8-30
Precedence Diagramming Restrictions

• Finish to start
• Start to start
• Finish to finish
• Start to finish

8-31
Precedence Diagramming Conventions

8-32
Microsoft Project

8-33
Gantt Chart

8-34
AON Network

8-35
Microsoft Project Calendar

8-36
Uncertainty of Project Completion Time

• Assume activities are statistically independent

• Variance of a set of activities is the sum of the
individual variances
• Interested in variances along the critical path

8-37
Example

Z=
(D −  )
=
(50 − 43)
=
7
= 1.22
2
33 5.745

D =  +   Z = 43 + 5.745(1.645) = 52.45

8-38
Toward Realistic Time Estimates

• Calculations are based on 1% chance of beating

estimates
• Calculations can also be based on 5% or 10%
• Changing the percentage requires changing the
formulae for variance
• When using 5%, the divisor changes to 3.29
• When using 10%, the divisor changes to 2.56

8-39
Risk Analysis Using Simulation with
Crystal Ball

8-40
Risk Analysis Using Simulation with
Crystal Ball

8-41
Risk Analysis Using Simulation with
Crystal Ball

8-42
Risk Analysis Using Simulation with
Crystal Ball

8-43
Risk Analysis Using Simulation with
Crystal Ball

8-44
Incorporating Costs into the
Simulation Analysis

8-45
Incorporating Costs into the
Simulation Analysis

8-46
Incorporating Costs into the
Simulation Analysis

8-47
Traditional Statistics or Simulation?

• Simulation is recommended but only after the

analyst has a good understanding of the traditional
statistical approach.
• Important for project manager to manage all paths
and activities that may potentially impact the
project’s ability to be completed on time
• Even non-critical tasks

8-48
Using These Tools

• Microsoft Project®
• Crystal Ball®
• Excel®

8-49
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Copyright ©2018 John Wiley & Son, Inc. 50