Lesson 9: RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

OBJECTIVES
9.1 Illustrate a random variable
(discrete and continuous)
RANDOM VARIABLES
AND PROBABILITY
9.2 distinguish between a discrete
and a continuous random
variable.

DISTRIBUTION
9.3 illustrate a probability
distribution for discrete random
variables and its properties.
9.4 compute probabilities
corresponding to a given LESSON 9
random variable.

In our previous topic, we recalled the concept of probability. How do we use this
concept in making decisions concerning a population using a sample?

Decision-making is an important aspect in business, education, insurance, and other

real-life situations. Many decisions are made by assigning probabilities to all possible
outcomes pertaining to the situation and then evaluating the results. For instance, an
insurance company might be able to assign probabilities to the number of vehicles a
family owns. This information will help the company in making decisions regarding
future financial situations. This situation requires the use of random variables and the
probability distributions.

This lesson will explain the concept of random variables and probability
distributions. We will learn how to construct the probability mass function of a
discrete probability distribution and describe its properties and characteristics by
computing its mean and variance.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Before probability distribution is defined formally, the definition of a variable is
reviewed. In grade 8, a variable was defined as a characteristics or attribute that
can assume different values. Various letters of the alphabet, such as X, Y or Z are
used to represent variables. Since the variable in this lesson are associated with
probability, they are called random variables.

For example, if a die is rolled, a letter such as X can be used to represent the
outcomes. Then the value that X can assume is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, corresponding
to the outcomes of rolling a single die. If two coins are tossed, a letter, say Y can
be used to represent the number of heads, in this case 0, 1, or 2.

A random variable is a variable whose values are determined by chance.

Also recall that you can classify variables as discrete or continuous by observing the values the variable
can assume. If a variable can assume only a specific number of values, such as the outcomes for the
roll of a die or the outcomes for the toss of a coin, then the variable is called a discrete variable.

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 Lesson 9: RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Discrete variables have a finite number of possible values or an infinite number of values that can be
counted. The word counted means that they can be enumerated using the numbers 1, 2, 3, etc. For
example, the number of joggers in Rizal Park each day and the number of phone calls received after a
TV commercial airs are examples of discrete variables, since they can be counted.

For example, the number of family in a family is a discrete random variable. There can only be a finite
number of children in each family, and this can be counted. The random variables that may take on the
following variables: 0, 1, 2, …. A family may have no child, one child, two children, and so on

Variables that can assume all values in the interval between any given values are called continuous
variables. For example, if the temperature goes from 62° to 78° in a 24-hour period, it has passed
through every possible number from 62 to 78. Continuous random variables are obtained from data
that can be measured rather than counted. Continuous random variables can assume an infinite number
of values and can be decimal and fractional values. On a continuous scale, a person’s weight might be
exactly 183.426 pounds if a scale could measure weight to the thousandths place, however on a digital
scale that measures only to tenths of pounds, the weight would be 183.4 pounds. Example of continuous
variables are heights, weights, temperature, and time.

For example, ten children were asked to solve the rubik’s cube. The time it took for them to complete
the puzzle is summarized in the table below:

Table 2.1
Time (in minute) <1 1−2 2−3 >3
Number of children 2 4 3 1
The time it takes for a child to complete the rubik’s cube is a continuous random variable, since a child
could have finished the puzzle in 1.2 minutes, or 2.5 minutes, and so on.

Discrete Probability Distributions

The procedure shown here for constructing a probability distribution for a discrete random variable
uses the probability experiment of tossing three coins. Recall that when three coins are tossed, the
sample space is represented as TTT, TTH, THT, HTT, HHT, HTH, THH, HHH; and if X is the random
variable for the number of heads, then X assumes the value 0, 1, 2, or 3. Probabilities for the values of
X can be determined as follows:
Table 2.2

No heads One head Two heads Three heads

TTT TTH THT HTT HHT HTH THH HHH

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1 3 3 1
8 8 8 8

1
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 Lesson 9: RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1 3 3 1
Hence, the probability of getting no heads is , one head is , two heads is , and three heads is .
8 8 8 8
From these values, a probability distribution can be constructed by listing the outcomes and assigning
the probability of each outcome, as shown here:
Table 2.3
Number of head X 0 1 2 3
Probability P(X) 1 3 3 1
8 8 8 8

A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are determined theoretically or by
observation that can be shown by using a graph or a table. It can be shown graphically by representing
the values of X on the x-axis and the probabilities 𝑃(𝑋) on the y-axis.

Example 1: Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single die.

1
Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and each outcome has a probability of , the
6
distribution is as shown.
Table 2.4
Outcome X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1 1 1 1 1 1
P(X) 6 6 6 6 6 6

Example 2: Represent graphically the probability distribution for the sample space for tossing three
coins. (Refer to Table 2.3)

Solution: The values that 𝑋 assumes are located on the x-axis and the values for 𝑃(𝑋) are located on
the 𝑦-axis. The graph is shown below:

Figure 2.1
Probability Distribution for Example 2

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Two Requirements for a Probability Distribution

1. The sum of the probabilities of all the events in the sample space must equal 1; that is,
∑ 𝑃(𝑋) = 1.
2. The probability of each event in the sample space must be between or equal to 0 and 1.
That is, 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑋) ≤ 1.

The first requirement states that the sum of the probabilities of all the events must be equal to 1. This
sum cannot be less than 1 or greater than 1 since the sample space includes all possible outcomes of the
probability experiment. The second requirement states that the probability of any individual event must
be a value from 0 to 1. The reason is that the range of the probability of any individual value can be 0,
1 or any value between 0 and 1. A probability cannot be a negative number or greater than 1.

Example 3:
Determine whether each distribution is a probability distribution.

a. c.

b. d.

Solutions:
a. Yes, it is a probability distribution
b. No, it is not a probability distribution, since 𝑃(𝑋) cannot be 1.5 or −1.0.
c. Yes, it is a probability distribution.
d. No, it is not, since ∑ 𝑃(𝑋) = 1 . 2

Mean of a Discrete Random Variable

The mean of a probability distribution is given by

𝝁 = ∑[𝒙 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙)],

To find the expected value, 𝑬(𝑿), or mean 𝝁 of a discrete random variable 𝑿, simplify each value of
the random variable by its probability and add the products.

Here 𝑥 represents values of the random variable 𝑋, 𝑃(𝑋) represents the corresponding probability, and
symbol Σ represents the sum of all the products 𝑥 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥). We use the symbol 𝝁 for the mean because it
is a parameter, which represents the mean of a population.

The given formula above can be used to derive the formula for the variance of a probability distribution.
The only difference is that the variance takes into account the square of the distance of each data point
from the mean.

Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable

Recall that variance is a measure of how spread the data are, so instead of multiplying each probability
with the single data point, it is multiplied by the sequence of the distance of each data point from the
mean.

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The variance of the probability distribution of a discrete random variable is given by

𝝈𝟐 = ∑[(𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙)]

The standard deviation of the probability distribution is the positive square root of variance.

𝝈 = √𝝈 𝟐

Example 4: A men’s soccer team plays soccer zero, one, or two days. The probability that they play is
0.2, the probability that they play one day is 0.5, and the probability that they play two days is 0. 3. Find
the long-term average, or expected value, 𝜇, of the number of days per week the men’s soccer team
plays soccer.

Let 𝑋 = be the number of days the men’s soccer team plays soccer per week.

On this example, 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2. We will create a probability distribution function (PDF) table, adding a
column for 𝑥 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥)

Table 2.5
𝒙 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒙 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙)
0 .2 0 ∙ (.2) = 0
1 .5 1 ∙ (.5) = .5
2 .3 2 ∙ (.3) = .6

This table is called an expected value table because it helps you to calculate the expected value or long-
term average. The last column shows the expected value, or mean, 𝜇 of the random variable 𝑋.
𝑬(𝑋) = 𝜇 = ∑[𝑥 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥)] = 0 + .5 + .6 = 1.1

Therefore, the expected value or mean is 1.1. The men’s soccer team would, on the average, expect to
play 1.1 days per week.

Solving for the variance and standard deviation, we will add two more columns for (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 and
(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥), respectively.

Table 2.6
𝒙 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒙 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙) (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 (𝒙 − 𝝁)𝟐 ∙ 𝑷(𝒙)
0 .2 0 ∙ (.2) = 0 (0 − 1.1)2 = 1.21 1.21 ∗ .2 = 0.242
1 .5 1 ∙ (.5) = .5 (1 − 1.1)2 = 0.01 0.01 ∗ .5 = 0.005
2 .3 2 ∙ (.3) = .6 (2 − 1.1)2 = 0.81 0.81 ∗ .3 = 0.243
∑[(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥)] = 0.49

Solving for the variance,

𝜎 2 = ∑[(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥)] = 0.49
To get the standard deviation,
𝜎 = √𝜎 2 = √0.49 = 0.7

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The Binomial Distribution

Many types of probability problems have only two outcomes or can be reduced to two outcomes. For
example, when a coin is tossed, it can land heads or tails. When a baby is born, it will be either male or
female. In a basketball game, a team either wins or losses. A true/false item can be answered in only
two ways, true or false. Other situations can be reduced to two outcomes. For example, a medical
treatment can be classified as effective or ineffective, depending on the results. A person can be
classified as having normal or abnormal blood pressure, depending on the measure of the blood pressure
gauge. A multiple-choice question, even though there are four or five answer choices, can be classified
as correct or incorrect. Situations like these are called binomial experiments.

A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following four requirements:

1. There must be a fixed number of trials.

2. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to two.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of one another.
4. The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial.

A binomial experiment and its result give rise to a special probability distribution called the binomial
distribution.

The outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these outcomes are
called a binomial distribution.

In binomial experiments, the outcomes are usually classified as successes of failures. For example, the
correct answer to a multiple-choice item can be classified as a success, but any of the other choices
would be incorrect and hence classified as a failure. The notation that is commonly used for binomial
experiments and the binomial distribution is defined now.

Notation for the Binomial Distribution

𝑃(𝑆) The symbol for the probability of success

𝑃(𝐹) The symbol for the probability of the failure
𝑝 The numerical probability of a success
𝑞 The numerical probability of a failure

𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑝 and 𝑃(𝐹) = 1 − 𝑝 = 𝑞

𝑛 The number of trials

𝑋 The number of success in n trials

Note that 0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑛 and 𝑋 = 0,1,2,33, … , 𝑛

The probability of a success in a binomial experiment can be computed with this formula.

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Binomial Probability Formula

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exact I success in n trials is

𝑛!
𝑃(𝑋) = ∙ 𝑝 𝑥 ∙ 𝑞 𝑛−𝑋
(𝑛 − 𝑋)! 𝑋!

Example 5. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
Solution. This problem can be solved by looking at the sample space. There are three ways to get two
heads.
HHH HHT HTH THH TTH THT HTT TTT

3
The answer is , or 0.375
8
Looking at the problem un Example from the standpoint of a binomial experience, one can show that it
means the four requirements.

1. There are a fixed number of trials (three)

2. There are only two outcomes for each trial, (heads or tails)
3. The outcomes are independent of one another (the outcome of one toss in no way affects the
outcome of another toss)
1
4. The probability of a success (heads) is in each case.
2

1 1
In this case, n= 3, 𝑋 = 2, 𝑝 = , 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞 = . Hence, substituting in the formula gives
2 2

3! 1 2 1 1 3
𝑃(2 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = (3−2)!2! ∙ ( ) ∙ ( ) = = 0.375
2 2 8

which is the same answer obtained by using the sample space.

The same example can be used to explain the formula. First, note that there are three ways to get exactly
two heads and one tail from a possible eight ways. They are HHT, HTH, and THH. In this case, then,
the number of ways of obtaining two heads from three coins tosses is 3𝐶2 or 3. In general, the number
of ways to get X success from n trials without regard to order is

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑋 = (𝑛−𝑋)!𝑋!

1
This is the first part of the binomial formula. Next, each success has a probability of and can occur
2
1 1 2 1 1
twice. Likewise, each failure has a probability of and can occur once, giving the ( ) ( ) part of the
2 2 2
formula. To generalize, then, each success has a probability of p and can occur X times, and each failure
has a probability of q and can occur 𝑛 − 𝑋 times. Putting it all together yields the binomial probability
formula.

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Expectation
Another concept related to the mean for a probability distribution is that of expected value or
expectation. Expected value is used in various types of games of chance, in insurance, and in other
areas, such as decision theory.

The expected value of a discrete random variable of a probability distribution is the theoretical average
of the variable. The formula is:

𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑

The symbol 𝐸(𝑋) is used for the expected value.

The formula for the expected value is the same as the formula for the theoretical mean. The expected
value, then, is the theoretical mean of the probability distribution. That is, 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇.

When expected value problems involve money, it is customary to round the answer to the nearest cent.

Example 6. One thousand tickets are sold at $1each for a color television valued at $350. What is the
expected value of the gain if you purchase one ticket?

Solution: The problem can be set up as follows:

Table 2.7
Win Lose
Gain (X) $349 −$1
Probability 1 999
1000 1000

Two things should be noted. First, for a win, the net gain is $349, since you do not get the cost of the
ticket ($1) back. Second, for a loss, the gain is represented by a negative number, in this case −$1. The
solution, then is

1
𝐸(𝑋) = $349 ∙ − $1 = −$0.65
1000

Here, the overall gain ($350) must be used.

Note that the expectation is −$0.65. This does not mean that you lose $0.65, since you can only win a
television set valued at $350 or lose $1 on the ticket. What this expectation means is that the average
of the losses is $0.65 for each of the 1000 ticket holders. Here is another way of looking at this situation:
If you purchased one ticket each week over a long time, the average loss would be $0.65 per ticket,
since theoretically, on average, you would win the set once for each 1000 tickets purchased.

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Birmajer, et al., (2020) Statistics. Openstax.org. Houston Texas

https://openstax.org/details/books/statistics

Bluman (2009) Elementary Statistics: A Step by Step Approach, Seventh Edition. 1221 Avenue of
the Americans, New York. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Panopio, Felix M., Ph.D (2011). Statistics with Probability. Philippines: FELIBER PUBLISHING
HOUSE
Tenorio & Tolentino (2013). College Statistics. Philippines: Western Batangas Development Co.

Module Creator/Curator : Ms. Jessa C. Luansing, LPT

Ms. Sherline A. Villanueva, LPT
Template & Layout Designer : Ms. Jessa C. Luansing, LPT
Ms. Maryrose Lizette A. Reyes, LPT
Ms. Sherline A. Villanueva, LPT

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