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Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the
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INITIATIVE ON

Sustainable Animal
Productivity

Theory of change for the

chicken value chain in Ethiopia,
developed for the CGIAR Initiative
Sustainable Animal Productivity
for Livelihoods, Nutrition and
Gender Inclusion
Theory of change for the
chicken value chain in Ethiopia,
developed for the CGIAR Initiative
Sustainable Animal Productivity
for Livelihoods, Nutrition and
Gender Inclusion

Mulugeta Y. Birhanu, Jane Poole, Wondmeneh Esatu, Fasil Getachew, Kumlachew Geremew, Mekonen Girma, Tsion Yemane,
Karen Marshall and Tadelle Dessie

International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

December 2023
©2023

This publication is copyrighted by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). It is

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Cover photo—Woman farmer with her chicken, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (photo credit: ILRI/Apollo Habtamu).

Citation: Birhanu, M. Y., Poole, J., Esatu, W., Getachew, F., Geremew, K., Girma, M., Yemane, T., Marshall, K. and Dessie, T. 2023. Theory of
change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and
Gender Inclusion. Nairobi, Kenya: International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

Acknowledgements
This work was conducted as part of the CGIAR Initiative on Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion. CGIAR research is supported by contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure
future dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.
Contents

1 The SAPLING Initiative 1

2 Chicken value chain in Ethiopia 2

2.1 Overview 2

2.2 Sites 2

2.3 Key value chain research questions 3

3. Theory of change (ToC) overview 3

4. Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia 4

5. Next steps 10

References 10

Annex 1. Elements included in the ToC 10

Annex 2. Initiative and work-package level outcomes from the SAPLING results framework 12

Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion

1 The SAPLING Initiative

The CGIAR Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion (SAPLING) is an initiative
that focuses on sustainable animal productivity. This initiative aims to contribute to transforming livestock sectors in
target countries to make them more productive, resilient, equitable and sustainable (see Box 1 on how this objective
will be achieved).

The initiative is based in seven countries located in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda), West Africa
(Mali), Southeast Asia (Vietnam) and South Asia (Nepal), and works on 15 livestock value chains in total (see Figure 1).

Within CGIAR, SAPLING is mapped to the action area Resilient Agrifood Systems.

Figure 1. SAPLING focal livestock value chain, which number five in total, across seven countries (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania,
Mali, Nepal and Vietnam) and six livestock types (beef cattle, chicken, dairy buffalo, dairy cattle, pigs and small ruminants).

From: https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/128150

Box 1. SAPLING’s objectives will be achieved through five work packages:

Technologies and practices for sustainable livestock productivity: developing, adapting and testing new and
existing productivity- and resilience-enhancing, low-emission, scalable technologies and practices across
the three main pillars of livestock productivity: improved feeds, animal health products and
genetics (Work Package 1).

Innovations and practices for safe consumption of livestock-derived foods as part of diverse diets:
co-creating innovative models and approaches for social and behaviour change communication (SBCC), and
testing and evaluating approaches for incentivizing market actors to enhance the supply of safe, nutritious
and affordable livestock-derived foods (Work Package 2).

Sustainable livestock productivity for gender equity and social inclusion: understanding constraints and
opportunities, identifying best-bet entry points, addressing constraints and developing tools to measure
progress (Work Package 3).

Competitive and inclusive livestock value chains: generating evidence on institutional arrangements and
technical interventions to transition towards more profitable, inclusive and sustainable livestock value chains
(Work Package 4).

Evidence, decisions and scaling: generating and consolidating evidence, models and tools to support
public and private decision-making for a sustainable and inclusive livestock sector (Work Package 5).

1
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion

2. Chicken value hatcheries (Vernooij et al. 2012; Amare and Tesfaye 2020).
In this production system, birds are kept in a house or cage
chain in Ethiopia that is either partially or fully automated, and chickens
are supplied with balanced commercial feeds. Unlike the
previous two systems, the productivity is quite high due to
2.1 Overview better management practices and improved genetics.

The chicken production system in Ethiopia can be broadly Generally, the chicken value chain in Ethiopia is
classified into extensive scavenging, semi-intensive and characterized by various production and marketing
intensive production systems. The extensive scavenging constraints that include limited access to improved genetics,
system accounts for the largest proportion of poultry increasing feed prices and inadequate animal health services
producers and is integral to smallholder farmers’ livelihood (Birhanu et al. 2021b; Shapiro et al. 2015; Bediye et al.
activity. In this system, producers keep less than 50 birds 2018). More specifically, the smallholder production system,
and use limited inputs, mainly supplementary feeds and which accounts for the largest proportion of producers,
disease treatment practices. The chickens kept in this is mainly characterized by the low-input low-output
production system largely comprise indigenous ecotypes production practices with limited commercial orientation.
that reproduce through natural incubation. The production Compared to crop production like maize and wheat, the
and productivity of the sector is quite low due to limited attention paid to the research and extension system in the
genetic potential of indigenous breeds and inadequate previous few decades was very limited (Birhanu and Jensen
management practices (Birhanu et al. 2021a; Shapiro 2023). However, recently, the government has paid more
et al. 2015). Producers keep 50-200 indigenous or attention to the sector, considering its importance to poverty
improved breeds in semi-intensive production systems, reduction, household nutrition, plus job and employment
mainly sourced from commercial hatcheries, including creation. For instance, recently, chicken production and
dual-purpose and commercial broilers, plus layer-type productivity was identified as one of the country’s priority
commercial breeds. Although chickens can scavenge livestock commodities that aims to enhance animal source
for some time during the day, these producers provide food consumption and create job opportunities (Dessie
regular feed, plus better housing, and disease prevention et al. 2023). Moreover, in collaboration with ILRI/TPGS,
and treatment to chickens than those with an extensive the Ministry of Agriculture developed a national poultry
scavenging system. As a result, production and productivity development strategy, an indication of the current attention
are better in this particular system than in the extensive given to the sector (Fekadu et al. 2023). As shown in the
scavenging approach. Transforming the traditional strategy document, improving production and productivity
(extensive scavenging) to an improved semi-intensive in this sector requires integrated innovations that include
or scavenging system was highlighted as a goal in the improved genetics, best-cost feeds, vaccines, access
country livestock master plan (Shapiro et al. 2015). Due to finance and markets, plus effective coordination and
to previous efforts by the government, private sector and collective actions along the value chain.
development organizations which created better access
to improved breeds and other inputs, there has been an
increasing trend in the number of farmers adopting this 2.2 Sites
production system in the previous few years. Moreover, the
increasing demand for poultry products, which is associated The SAPLING sites in Ethiopia are located in three regions,
with an increasing population, preference for chicken specifically, Amhara, Oromia and SNNP (Figure 2). In each
meat and rising urbanization, has led to the expansion of region, there are two districts where SAPLING activities
intensive production systems in urban and peri-urban areas. are implemented: Amhara region – Bahir Dar Zuria and
However, this sector remains underdeveloped compared Menz Gera Medir; Oromia region – Walmara and Bereh;
with other developing countries in the region. The intensive SNNP region – Doya Gena and Konso. In each district,
production system may include small-, medium- and chicken production is an integral part of smallholders’
large-scale commercial productions where producers agricultural activity.
keep specialized layers or broiler birds from commercial

2
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion

Figure 2: Location of chicken value chain SAPLING sites in Ethiopia. 9. What is the impact of one egg per day per child con-
sumption on the nutritional outcomes of school-age
children?

10. What effect do SBCC interventions have on house-

hold nutrition, especially for women and children
under five years of age?

11. What are the most important technical capacity gaps

and possible interventions along the smallholder
poultry value chain?

12. Does establishing TROP provide space for knowl-

edge exchange, circulation of information for
research and good practice, plus joint actions for
common problems?

Key partners: the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural

2.3 Key value chain Research (EIAR), Amhara Region Agricultural Research
Institute (ARARI), Southern Agricultural Research Institute
research questions (SARI), the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI),
Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Ministry of Labour and
The key research questions comprise the following:
Skills (MoLS), Ministry of Education (MoE), commercial
1. What are the changes in knowledge and skills of poultry companies (i.e., EthioChicken), microfinance
smallholder farmers trained on improved poultry institutes and smallholder farmers.
production and marketing practices?

2. How do tropically-adapted improved chicken breeds

perform under smallholder management conditions 3. Theory of change
in terms of productive, adaptive and economic per-
formance? overview
3. How much genetic progress can be achieved per Since past research has shown that successful livestock
generation through selective breeding on indige- development requires integrated packages of
nous/local chicken populations? productivity enhancing technologies and innovations
along the value chain and an enabling environment,
4. What is the breed and trait preference of smallholder SAPLING organizes its outputs not as individual
farmers? “silver bullets”, but rather in innovation packages—
”combinations of interrelated innovations and enabling
5. What are the scalable non-conventional feed ingredi-
conditions that, together, can lead to transformation
ents that can substitute some of the feed ingredients
and impact at scale in a specific context 1”—that
in conventional chicken feeds?
target specific sets of inter-related, context-specific
6. What are the risk factors that contribute to mortality opportunities and constraints.
and morbidity in on-farm flocks of smallholder farm-
ers? SAPLING chose to develop theories of change (ToCs)
at the value chain (VC) level to demonstrate how the
7. What are the most effective business models for mass outputs of SAPLING’s Work Packages come together in
multiplication and sustained supply of improved Innovation Packages to contribute to outcomes on the
chicks to smallholder chicken producers? ground. ToCs were initially developed in participatory
workshops with stakeholders and later updated to
8. Are there tailored financial services delivery models
reflect changes in programming, to clarify and firm up
for smallholder poultry producers? If not, what are
the underlying logic—via specification of sub-pathways—
the appropriate business models and the impact of
and to increase consistency across value chains. Click
these models on households’ production and mar-
keting decisions?
1 Definitions from CGIAR MEL glossary unless otherwise noted

3
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion

here for information on the stakeholder workshop that (MELIA). For more information on how the value chain
initiated the development of the ToC for chicken in ToCs fit into the overall SAPLING monitoring, evaluation
Ethiopia. Going forward, regular review and updating and learning plan, refer to the SAPLING MEL Brief.
is planned as part of program management and
monitoring, evaluation, learning and impact assessment Annex 1provides additional information on the elements
included in the ToC.

4. Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia

Figure 3. Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia indicating innovation packages (IPs), immediate outcomes (IOs), and
end-of-initiative (EOI) outcomes in boxes. Linkages to work package (WP) outcomes are presented in the other outcome boxes. See
Annex 2 for full details of all SAPLING outcomes.

Figure 3 presents the ToC of the chicken value chain The first sub-pathway refers to delivering
in Ethiopia with target values determined as given integrated technologies and practices to
here. It contains four pathways, namely, (1) delivering smallholder farmers, including improved genetics,
integrated technologies, (2) business model for best-cost feeds, disease prevention and treatment,
innovation delivery, (3) nutrition interventions, and capacity building and access to information. As
(4) evidence and decision-making . While the four indicated by various empirical studies, delivering a
pathways are mutually reinforcing, especially in the single technology does not result in the expected
long run, it is useful to describe them separately to outcomes in the adoption and use of technologies.
clarify how SAPLING expects early interactions and Considering lessons from previous African Chicken
outcomes to occur. Further details about innovations Genetic Gain (ACGG) project activities and similar
and enabling elements within each innovation interventions, the current work under SAPLING
package are presented in the boxed text. promotes integrated innovations with enabling

4
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion

environments such as capacity building and Potential non-conventional poultry feed ingredients
other technical supports. Sustained adoption of will be identified through a comprehensive desk
improved poultry breeds demands enhancing review/meta-analysis followed by an experiment
farmers’ access to a package of technologies to optimize and develop best-cost feed rations
and building their capacity for production and and promote them for smallholder farmers (IP3).
marketing practices (Birhanu et al. 2022). The This may include building smallholders’ capacity
innovation packages in this pathway mainly include on feed formulation using locally available inputs.
IP1-IP4 (see details in boxes 2-5) and IP7 to deliver Furthermore, improved chicken breeds delivered to
the technologies (the description of IP7 is presented smallholder farmers will be vaccinated for different
under the second pathway). IP1 and IP2 refer to diseases at the brooding and later stages using
‘Enhancing smallholder farmers’ access to and different approaches. Strategies and approaches
promoting the adoption of locally-adapted and that improve poultry vaccine and delivery of other
high-producing chicken breeds through public- health services to smallholder farmers will be
private partnership and stakeholder engagement. developed and deployed to partners and other
This mainly includes improving the productivity stakeholders (IP4). The type, efficacy and delivery
of local chickens and identifying and promoting mode of the existing vaccine system will also
productive and locally-adapted chicken breeds. be assessed to identify challenges and develop
strategies that enhance the vaccine and other health
Improving the performance of indigenous chicken service delivery systems in the future. Training will be
breeds mainly kept by smallholder farmers is jointly organized by the SAPLING team and partners
one of the interventions the TPGS team will work for experts of regional animal health laboratories and
on to enhance smallholder chicken productivity enumerators to build their capacity on poultry health
and ensure the biodiversity of existing genetics. management. Moreover, different tools will be
The TPGS team will collaborate with the Andassa developed to conduct regular follow-up of chicken
Livestock Research Centre (ALRC) of ARARI to flocks’ health management, design tailored disease
enhance the Tilili chicken breed improvement prevention mechanisms (vaccination, disinfection,
program. The aim is to develop lines with better avoiding contact with other flock) and monitor
growth and egg production performance. At the occurrence of disease (periodic or persistent) plus
ILRI Addis campus, using improved indigenous disease symptoms (early warning). The tools will also
lines, various crossbred combinations will be deal with diagnosis of potential causes of morbidity
developed and evaluated under on-station and on- and mortality in chicken, and investigate disease
farm conditions to identify the best combinations outbreaks.
and deliver them to smallholder farmers.
This pathway’s immediate outcomes target
Three chicken strains that include chickens identified smallholder producers, feed and vaccine suppliers,
in the ACGG project will be tested under on- policymakers and development partners. Women
farm conditions with complementary innovation and men smallholder farmers’ technical skills in
packages. The performance of these breeds will be improved chicken production (i.e., breeding,
evaluated with three flock size levels (25, 50 and disease prevention, treatment, feeding and
75) to examine the growth and egg productivity housing) are expected to improve through training
level and the economic and technical feasibility and continuous support (IO1). Smallholder farmers
of keeping different flock sizes across different and feed suppliers’ awareness of best-cost feed
geographies. Smallholder farmers will be trained on options is expected to increase by sharing evidence
basic chicken management practices, organized into from the intervention; and their technical skills
groups and linked with inputs and output markets in feed formulation would be enhanced using
and service providers to enhance their technical different approaches (IO2). Evidence of existing
capacity and access to inputs and output markets. vaccine and other health service delivery systems
will be generated and shared with policymakers,
In addition to enhancing their access to improved vaccine suppliers and development partners to
genetics, ensuring smallholder farmers’ access to identify challenges and opportunities, and develop
best-cost feed rations and health services will be an strategies for improved delivery systems (IO3).
integral part of the genetic innovation packages. It is assumed that the innovation packages are

5
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion

preferred by smallholder farmers and other value capacity to engage in profitable poultry businesses
chain actors, and will generate additional income (EOI2). It will also contribute to EOI1 for the
for households and service providers. It is expected adoption of co-created, demand-driven innovation
that these integrated technology packages and packages of productivity- and resilience-enhancing
institutional arrangements will be used by 42,180 and institutional arrangements. The underlying
people, resulting in a 50-100% increase in chicken assumption in this sub-pathway is that business
productivity at the smallholder level (EIO1). models and other innovation packages improve
the private sector and government’s investment
The second sub-pathway entails developing and decisions that enhance the competitiveness and
deploying women and youth-focused business inclusivity of the value chain.
models for mass multiplication and delivery
of improved technologies, financial services, The third sub-pathway focuses on promoting
tools and infrastructure to enhance smallholder nutrition-sensitive interventions to enhance the
farmers’ access to input and output markets and consumption of poultry products in rural and urban
support services (IP7, see Box 8). The innovation areas. IP5 includes the introduction of model
under IP7 is designed to develop and promote poultry production demonstration farms at selected
business models that help to enhance smallholder primary schools to promote small-scale poultry
farmers’ access to integrated technologies (IP1- farms and animal-source food consumption in
IP4) and output markets. Youth- and women- school feeding programs (see Box 6), while IP6
focused business models (i.e., flock-size based) refers to promoting improved poultry product
for scaling integrated technologies and delivering consumption through integrated nutrition
innovative financial products and services to education in rural and urban areas. A model
support profitable poultry-based businesses will poultry farm will be established in selected primary
be developed, tested, validated and deployed schools to supply eggs for promoting one egg per
for further scaling. Organized poultry producers day per child consumption as part of the school
are also linked to input and service providers. feeding program (see Box 7). Improved vegetable
This would help policymakers, development production is expected to be integrated with the
partners, poultry producers and service model poultry farm that uses manure from the
providers to understand profitable poultry-based farm as a fertilizer. Tailored nutrition education and
business opportunities along the value chain training on improved poultry husbandry practices
and engage in initiative-promoted innovations are also provided to children in the pilot schools.
(IO9). Moreover, the innovation in IP7 includes The impact of the intervention on the nutritional
delivering extension and advisory services to status of school-age children will be evaluated
smallholder farmers, developing approaches and using experimental approaches (intervention vs.
tools to promote collective actions and market control schools). It is expected that knowledge
linkages, identifying marketing challenges and of actors involved in the school feeding program
opportunities, introducing innovative marketing (i.e. the school community, local governments,
facilities, and examining farmers’ preferences and development partners and rural households) on
willingness to pay for integrated packages. This the potential role of including eggs as an animal
would increase the awareness and capacity of source of food would increase (IO4). The integrated
women and men smallholder farmers on improved nutrition education will be provided to adult
poultry production and marketing practices female and men chicken keepers through different
(IO7). The evidence generated from different approaches including conventional and digital
innovations will also increase the awareness and tools, as one component of the Social Behaviour
knowledge of governments and NGOs on the Change Communication (SBCC) packages. This
role of improved and tailored poultry product innovation will be overlaid on the on-farm chicken
marketing facilities and infrastructure, and inform performance testing, and its impact will be
their investment decisions (IO8). Ultimately, these evaluated using standard approaches. Women and
will lead regional and local governments, NGOs men smallholder farmers are expected to acquire
and the private sector to invest USD 2.9 million in knowledge and skills in improved eggs and chicken
improved poultry products, marketing facilities, meat consumption practices (IO5).
infrastructure, and tools that enhance farmers’

6
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion

Compared to other countries in the region and in enhancing the performance of the value chain.
global averages, the consumption of eggs and IP8 involves platforms, policies and technical
chicken meat in Ethiopia is quite low. Among other capacities to enhance the competitiveness and
reasons, the limited poultry product consumption inclusiveness of the smallholder poultry value
in the country could be linked to limited access chain (see Box 9). The innovation packages
to fried or roasted chicken meat and traditional under this pathway include generating evidence
chicken meat cooking practices, which are both to support national efforts towards improving
labour- and resource-intensive. Introducing policy and regulatory frameworks, identifying
innovative cooking and marketing approaches can national technical capacity gaps in poultry
enhance consumption practices. In this regard, development (namely, genetics, feed, health
unemployed youth and women will be trained in and extension) and developing a roadmap for
chicken meat cooking and selling in selected urban technical capacity strengthening, plus establishing
areas and supported to start chicken meat frying/ and operationalizing the Tropical Poultry Platform
roasting and selling businesses. The training will (TROP). Evidence from each innovation component
be provided in collaboration with national partners will be synthesized and shared with decision
such as the Ministry of Labour and Skills and other makers in the public and private sectors. This
local partners. As a result, the knowledge and will ensure that policymakers and development
technical skills of trained youth and women in partners understand key interventions that enhance
the cooking and marketing of poultry products is the efficiency and effectiveness of the smallholder
expected to increase as they engage in cooking poultry value chain (IO10), and that national
and selling of chicken meat in urban areas (IO6). government and other stakeholders support TROP
In due course, it is expected that regional and and promote or facilitate its establishment in the
local governments and NGOs will utilize initiative- tropics (IO11). In due course, decision makers (both
developed and tested tools and approaches to in government and the private sector) are expected
promote the consumption of poultry products to use the evidence from these innovations and
in urban and rural areas, including smallholder make informed policy and investment decisions
households and school feeding programs (EOI3). to promote improved poultry production and
consumption practices (EIO4). This will also
Key assumptions that underline the logic of contribute to the adoption of co-created, demand-
this pathway are: first, egg supplementation in driven innovation packages of productivity- and
school feeding programs and nutrition education resilience-enhancing and institutional arrangements
interventions improves children and adult women’s (EOI1) and enhance investment by regional and
diet diversity and nutritional security. Second, training local governments, NGOs and the private sector
provided to youth groups improves their capacity and in improved poultry products, marketing facilities,
interest to engage in cooked chicken meat marketing. infrastructure, and tools that enhance farmers’
capacity to engage in profitable poultry businesses
The fourth sub-pathway acknowledges the role of (EOI2).
platforms, policies, and strategic capacity building

Box 2. IP1: Improving smallholder farmers’ access to high-producing indigenous

and crossbred chickens Components of the package comprise:

Composite chicken line, improved for productivity and adaptiveness from a cross-breeding program based on
four local chicken lines
* More productive and adapted line of the indigenous Tilili chicken breed, from a within-breed improvement
program
* Training of breeders from national research institutes in chicken breeding in support of the above breeding
activities
* Business model(s) to commercialise the above chicken lines, such as through public-private partnerships,
and with a focus on youth and women
* Training of public and private partners on the business model(s)
* Innovative financing solutions to support implementation of the business model
* Linkage of chicken keepers to suppliers of improve chicken genetics via farmer groups

7
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion

Box 3. IP2: Enhancing smallholder farmers’ access to, and promoting the adoption
of tropically-adapted and high-producing chicken breeds through public-private
partnership and stakeholders’ engagement

Components of the package comprise:

* Tropically-adapted exotic chicken breeds that meet the needs and preferences of women and men chicken
keepers
* Training of breeders from national research institutes in chicken breeding in support of the above breeding
activities
* Business model(s) to commercialise the above chicken lines, such as through public-private partnerships,
and with a focus on youth and women
* Training of public and private partners on the business model(s)
* Innovative financing solutions to support implementation of the business
* Linkage of chicken keepers to suppliers of tropically-adapted chicken genetics via farmer groups
* App for digital extension and advisory services to support smallholder chicken farmers, including on
tropically-adapted chicken breeds
* Training of development partners and smallholder farmers on the extension and advisory services app

Box 4. IP3: Promoting best-cost Box 5. IP4: Strategies and approach-

chicken feed packages and building es for improving poultry vaccine
smallholder farmers’ capacity in and other health service delivery to
feed formulation smallholder farmers

Components of the package comprise: Components of the package comprise:

* Optimized feed formulations based * Delivery strategy for chicken vaccines
on locally available non-conventional involving the public and private sectors
ingredients, via use of a feed optimisation * Training to build the capacity of the public
app (with associated training manual) and private sectors on chicken vaccine
* Training of national research institutes, as delivery strategy
well as women and men farmers, on the feed * Optimized vaccination and flock-health
optimisation app strategies at brooding and all stages of
* Business model for feed suppliers, including chicks’ growth
young entrepreneurs, to produce non- * Training of brooders and smallholder farmers
conventional feed and contribute to on the optimized vaccination strategy and
optimised feed formulations health care packages described above
* Training of feed suppliers, including young * Linkage of smallholder farmers and brooders
entrepreneurs, on the business model above with health service providers through
* Linkage of chicken keepers to feed suppliers farmers’ groups
via farmer groups * App for digital extension and advisory
* App for digital extension and advisory services to support smallholder chicken
services to support smallholder chicken farmers, including on chicken vaccination
farmers, including on chicken nutrition and flock health
* Training of development partners and * Training of development partners and
smallholder farmers on the extension and smallholder farmers on the extension and
advisory services app advisory services app

8
Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion

Box 6. IP5: Approaches for enhanc-

ing animal source food consumption
in school feeding programs and pro-
moting integrated poultry production
practices

Components of the package comprise:

* School feeding programs to enhance egg
consumption via model poultry production farms
or egg supplementation in existing feeding
programs
* Training of the school community on poultry farm
management practices
* Training on poultry products and other nutrient-
dense food consumption practices for school-
age children and the school community

Box 7. IP6: Promoting poultry prod- Box 9. IP8: Platforms, policies and
uct consumption through integrat- technical capacities for enhancing
ed nutrition education in rural and the competitiveness and inclusive-
urban areas ness of the smallholder poultry
value chain
Components of the package comprise:
* SBCC package for increasing poultry Components of the package comprise:
product consumption at the smallholder * Strengthened national innovation platforms
level as a nucleus for the creation of supra-national
* Dissemination of the SBCC package to poultry forums
chicken-keeping households * Tropical poultry platform (TROP), involving
* Farmer-friendly app for improved household multiple tropical countries
nutrition, including consumption of animal * Training of stakeholders and partners to
source foods enhance their engagement and contribution
* Training of human healthcare workers, to TROP
women and men smallholder farmers, and * Roadmap for technical capacity
others on the app described above strengthening in poultry development
* Training package on chicken meat cooking * Training packages to build the capacity of
and marketing national partners to implement the roadmap
* Training of unemployed youth from selected * Evidence to support national efforts toward
urban areas on chicken meat cooking and improving policy and regulatory frameworks
marketing using the training package above around the poultry value chain shared with
policy and decision makers

Box 8. IP7: Women- and youth-focused business models for mass multiplication and
delivery of improved technologies (IP1-3) and other services to enhance sustained
adoption of poultry innovations
Components of the package comprise:
* Business model(s) to commercialise farmer-preferred chicken lines, such as through public-private
partnerships, and with a focus on youth and women
* Innovative financing solutions to support implementation of the business model
* App for digital extension and advisory services to support smallholder chicken farmers
* Training of development partners and smallholder farmers on digital extension and advisory services utilization
* Strengthened farmer groups linked to input suppliers and output markets
* Innovative marketing facilities for smallholder-based chicken production
* Training of market actors to enhance the adoption of innovative marketing facilities

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Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion

5. Next steps Dessie, T., Zewdie, Y., Yilma, Z., Ayalew, W. and Haile, A.
2023. Yelemat Tirufat: An overview of the initiative and lessons
of experience from selected livestock development inter-
ToCs are living documents that should be developed and
ventions in Ethiopia. Nairobi, Kenya: International Livestock
updated in response to concrete programmatic needs.
Research Institute (ILRI).
This theory of change will be reviewed in collaboration
with stakeholders on an annual basis, with changes made
Fekadu, T., Esatu, W., Takele, D., Tesfaye, E., Zewdie, Y.,
as necessary. The reflection process, changes to the ToC
Amssalu, K., Yirgu, T., Endawek, M., Shiferaw, S., Million,
and reasoning behind these changes will be documented
B., Yitayih, M. and Dessie, T. 2023. Ethiopia National Poultry
as annexes to this report.
Development Strategy 2022–2031. In: Federal Government of
Ethiopia, M. O. A. (ed). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

References Marshall, K., Poole, J., Njehu, A. and Baltenweck, I. 2022.

Monitoring, evaluation and learning within the CGIAR Initiative
Am are, A. and Tesfaye, E. 2020. Characterization of small and Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and
medium scale commercial chicken production and marketing Gender Inclusion (SAPLING). ILRI Research Brief 117. Nairobi,
systems in Ethiopia. World Journal of Agricultural Sciences 16, Kenya: International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
330-338
Shapiro, B. I., Gebru, G., Desta, S., Negassa, A., Negussie,
Bediye, S., Nemi, G. and Makkar, H. 2018. Ethiopian feed in- K., Aboset, G. and Mechal, H. 2015. Ethiopia livestock master
dustry: Current status, challenges and opportunity. Broadening plan: Roadmaps for growth and transformation. ILRI Project Re-
Horizons [Online]. Available from: https://www.feedipedia. port. Nairobi, Kenya: International Livestock Research Institute
org/content/ethiopian-feed-industry-current-status-challeng- (ILRI).
es-and-opportunities.
Vernooij, A. G., Cornelissen, J. M. R., Claassen, I. J. T. M., Beit-
Birhanu, M. Y., Alemayehu, T., Bruno, J. E., Kebede, F. G., ler, E., Rees, H. L., Giani, A. and Cloezeman, S. 2012. Poultry in
Sonaiya, E. B., Goromela, E. H., Bamidele, O. and Dessie, Ethiopia: a survey of production, value chain and marketing of
T. 2021a. Technical efficiency of traditional village chicken commercial poultry in Ethiopia. The Hague: Netherlands-Afri-
production in Africa: Entry points for Sustainable transformation can Business Council.
and improved livelihood. Sustainability 13, 8539

Birhanu, M. Y., Bruno, J. E., Alemayehu, T., Esatu, W.,

Geremew, K., Yemane, T., Kebede, F. G. and Dessie, T. 2022.
Beyond diffusion to sustained adoption of innovation: A case
Annex 1. Elements
of smallholder poultry development in sub-Saharan Africa. In- included in the theory
ternational Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Ahead-of-print,
1-19.doi: 10.1080/14735903.2022.2041235 of change
The Theory of Change (ToC) includes three standard
Birhanu, M. Y., Geremew, K., Esatu, W., Girma, T., Fasil elements: outputs (Innovation packages), outcomes and
Getachew, Worku, S. and Dessie, T. 2021b. Economic and assumptions. CGIAR defines an outcome as “a change in
marketing performance of chicken value chain actors in Ethi- knowledge, skills, attitudes and/or relationships, which
opia: Challenges and business opportunities for sustainable manifests as a change in behaviour in particular actors,
livelihoods. Nairobi, Kenya: International Livestock Research to which research outputs and related activities have
Institute (ILRI). contributed.” In these ToCs, Immediate Outcomes (IOs)
are initial changes in things like awareness and capacity
Birhanu, M. Y. and Jensen, N. 2023. Dynamics of improved that occur among next-users of the innovation packages.
agricultural technologies adoption: The chicken and maize End-of Initiative outcomes (EOIs) are outcomes that
paradox in Ethiopia. Sustainable Futures, 5.https://doi. occur further along the pathway and reflect changes in
org/10.1016/j.sftr.2023.100112 behaviour among target actors and, in some cases, the
consequences of that behaviour such as an increase in

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Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender Inclusion

productivity or the value of investments. EOIs are the about how the different types of outcomes relate to
same across all ToCs while the immediate outcomes each other is intended to facilitate use of the ToC for
that lead to them are context-specific. In order to see program-level monitoring and learning, and avoid
the whole VC ToC in a single diagram, multiple similar confusion and duplication.
outcomes are grouped together in a single IO or EOIs.
These could be unpacked in a series of nested ToCs if Assumptions are “hypotheses about factors or risks
further details on sub-pathways are required. which could affect the progress or success of a
development intervention… It is useful to distinguish
Just as Innovation packages combine innovations between: (i) theoretical assumptions, about how the
from different Work Packages, IOs and EOIs combine intervention is expected to contribute to a process of
expected outcomes of different Work Packages that change based on facts, and; (ii) contextual assumptions,
were specified in SAPLING’s results framework. As about current conditions and the trajectory and risks that
expected, the mapping of WP to ToC outcomes (IO could affect the progress or success of a development
and EOIs) is not one-to-one; for example, use by value intervention.” While both types of assumptions
chain actors of a gender-aware business model can are important, these ToCs focus on key theoretical
contribute to expected outcomes of Work Package 3 assumptions since these are the ones that initiatives
(strategies and approaches for enhancing gender equity address as part of their research programs, investing
and social inclusion) and Work Package 4 (evidence and resources to understand and test them.
approaches for strengthening competitive and inclusive
livestock value chains). In Figure 3, each IO or EOI notes
the WP outcome(s) to which it maps. Being explicit

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Theory of change for the chicken value chain in Ethiopia, developed for the CGIAR Initiative Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender
Inclusion

Annex 2. Initiative and work-package level

outcomes from the SAPLING results framework
Outcome code
(EOI – end-of-
Outcome
initiative; WP =
work package)
Co-created, demand-driven innovation packages of productivity- and resilience-enhancing, low emission
technologies and the institutional arrangements (including markets) necessary for their adoption are
being used by 800,000 people (male and female), including at least 100,000 individuals using SAPLING-
EOI1
promoted improved forage and food-feed crops in households that keep cattle, chickens, small
ruminants, pigs and buffaloes in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Mali, Nepal and Vietnam, resulting
in a 30%-50% increase in livestock productivity.
Private and public sector partners invest at least USD 30M in co-creation and delivery of novel, low
EOI2 emission, demand-driven, gender and youth inclusive, and productivity-enhancing technologies and
practices for genetics, feed/forage and health.
Six public and private sector organizations utilize initiative-developed social behavior change
EOI3 communication strategies, tools or campaigns targeted at incorporating safe livestock-derived foods into
diverse diets to inform nutrition education strategies and/or campaigns.
Public and private decision makers utilize the initiative innovation packages to inform policies and
EOI4 investments in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Mali, Nepal and Vietnam towards an inclusive and
sustainable livestock system, including progress towards equity and inclusion.
Use by public and private sector value-chain actors of promoted genetic improvement programs
WP1-1 in smallholder systems, built on the needs and preferences of livestock keepers in 7 countries and
incorporating ICT, genomic and reproductive technologies, as appropriate.
Development partners, public and private seed sectors use, promote and commercialize improved
WP1-2 forage and food-feed crops, and feed companies employ prioritization approaches to improve feed
options and reduce the livestock feeding gap.
Animal health system actors in 7 countries promote and use tools and technologies (herd health
WP1-3
packages and disease control) to reduce the disease burden.
Government and development practitioners take up the decision support tools to diagnose and prioritize
WP2-1
livestock-derived foods in food and nutrition interventions.
Government and development practitioners support and promote social behavior change communication
WP2-2
and market-related innovations that enhance affordability and safety of livestock-derived foods.
Policy: in 4 selected countries, private sector and the development community acknowledge gender-
WP3-1 and youth-based discrimination in livestock value chains and co-develop strategies to close the gender
and age gap.
Community and household members in selected livestock value chains adopt gender-transformative
WP3-2 approaches and demonstrate more gender-equitable behavior to enable participation and ensure that all
groups benefit from livestock assets and opportunities.
Scientists, practitioners and extension agents in animal health, feeds and forages, genetics and environment
WP3-3
collaborate with gender scientists to generate gender- and youth-responsive livestock innovation bundles.
Government and development practitioners support new business models and interventions that ensure
WP4-1
improved competitiveness of the livestock value chains.

WP4-2 Government and development practitioners support and promote SAPLING innovation packages.
Market actors invest in profitable and inclusive business models promoted by SAPLING, that provide
WP4-3
transparent and efficient markets.
Value chain actors are adjusting their investments and practices based on prioritization, trade-off and/or
WP5-1
scaling readiness analysis.
Public and private decision makers utilize initiative-developed tools and recommendations to inform
WP5-2
policies and investments in the 7 focus countries and beyond (scaling).
Researchers and decision makers have access to and use improved analytical tools (environment- and
WP5-3
gender-sensitive), evidence and processes to guide livestock master plans (LMPs).

12
 INITIATIVE ON

Sustainable Animal
Productivity

CGIAR’s Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Nutrition and Gender inclusion (SAPLING) is working
in seven countries focusing on livestock value chains to package and scale out tried-and-tested, as well as new,
innovationsin livestock health, genetics, feed and market systems. SAPLING aims to demonstrate that improvements
in livestock productivity can offer a triple win: generating improved livelihoods and nutritional outcomes;
contributing to women’s empowerment; and, reducing impacts on climate and the environment. Its seven focus
countries are Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda and Vietnam.

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