Introduction to Probability Part III
Introduction to Probability Part III
M. Haugh G. Iyengar
Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research
Columbia University
Brownian Motion
Remark. Bachelier (1900) and Einstein (1905) were the first to explore Brownian
motion from a mathematical viewpoint whereas Wiener (1920’s) was the first to
show that it actually exists as a well-defined mathematical entity.
2
Standard Brownian Motion
Xt = x + µt + ‡Wt (8)
3
Sample Paths of Brownian Motion
4
Information Filtrations
For any random process we will use Ft to denote the information available
at time t
- the set {Ft }tØ0 is then the information filtration
5
A Brownian Motion Calculation
E0 [Wt+s Ws ] = E0 [(Wt+s ≠ Ws + Ws ) Ws ]
# $
= E0 [(Wt+s ≠ Ws ) Ws ] + E0 Ws2 . (9)
M. Haugh G. Iyengar
Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research
Columbia University
Geometric Brownian Motion
Note that
! 2
"
µ≠ ‡2 (t+s) + ‡Wt+s
Xt+s = X0 e
! 2
" ! 2
"
µ≠ ‡2 t + ‡Wt + µ≠ ‡2 s + ‡(Wt+s ≠Wt )
= X0 e
! ‡2 "
µ≠ 2 s + ‡(Wt+s ≠Wt )
= Xt e (10)
2
Geometric Brownian Motion
3
Sample Paths of Geometric Brownian Motion
4
Geometric Brownian Motion
The following properties of GBM follow immediately from the definition of BM:
Xt2 Xt3 X
1. Fix t1 , t2 , . . . , tn . Then Xt1 , Xt2 , . . . , Xt tn are mutually independent.
n≠1
(For a period of time t, consider 0<t1 <t2 <t3 <t4 …..tn < t)
5
Modeling Stock Prices as GBM
These properties suggest that GBM might be a reasonable model for stock prices.
Indeed it is the underlying model for the famous Black-Scholes option formula.
6
Financial Engineering and Risk Management
Review of vectors
2
Linear independence
A vector w is linearly dependent on v1 , v2 if
w = –1 v1 + –2 v2 for some –1 , –2 œ R
Example: S T S T S T
2 1 0
U6V = 2 U1V + 4 U1V
4 0 1
Other names: linear combination, linear span
3
Basis
Every w œ Rn is a linear combination of the linearly independent set
YS T S T S TZ S T S T S T
_
_ 1 0 0 _ _ 1 0 0
_
]W0X W1X W0X^ _ W0X W1X W0X
W X W X W X W X W X W X
B = W.X , W.X , . . . W.X w = w1 W . X +w2 W . X + . . . + wn W . X
_
_U .. V U .. V U .. V_
_ U .. V U .. V U .. V
_
[ _
\
0 0 1 0 0 1
¸˚˙˝ ¸˚˙˝ ¸˚˙˝
e1 e2 en
Basis © any linearly independent set that spans the entire space
Any basis for Rn has exactly n elements
4
Norms
A function fl(v) of a vector v is called a norm if
fl(v) Ø 0 and fl(v) = 0 implies v = 0
fl(–v) = |–| fl(v) for all – œ R
fl(v1 + v2 ) Æ fl(v1 ) + fl(v2 ) (triangle inequality)
fl generalizes the notion of “length”
Examples:
Òq
n
¸2 norm: ÎxÎ2 = i=1
|xi |2 ... usual length
qn
¸1 norm: ÎxÎ1 = i=1
|xi |
¸Œ norm: ÎxÎŒ = max1ÆiÆn |x|i
1q 2 1p
n
¸p norm, 1 Æ p < Œ: ÎxÎp = i=1
|x|pi
5
Inner product
The inner-product or dot-product of two vector v, w œ Rn is defined as
n
ÿ
v·w= vi w i
i=1
Ô
The ¸2 norm ÎvÎ2 = v·v
The angle ◊ between two vectors v and w is given by
v·w
cos(◊) =
ÎvÎ2 ÎwÎ2