NTPC (1)
NTPC (1)
Employee Cost 4,621 4,621 5,144 5,659 5,781 5,698 5,461 5,967 6,132 6,185 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4%
Selling and admin 1,591 1,375 1,556 1,692 2,242 2,923 3,274 4,111 5,326 6,961 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%
Other Expenses -1,467 -588 -1,359 -3,602 1,769 -11,554 -5,388 -6,104 -2,168 -8,745 -2% -1% -2% -4% 2% -12% -5% -5% -1% -5% Chart of Op.EBIT Margin
Depreciation 4,912 5,172 5,921 7,099 7,254 8,623 10,412 12,058 13,137 13,943 14,751 7% 7% 8% 9% 8% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9%
Operating Profit (Op. EBIT) 11,011 12,824 15,435 17,758 11,793 28,159 22,181 26,895 29,896 31,966 29,703 Op.EBIT Margin 15% 18% 20% 21% 13% 29% 22% 22% 18% 20% 18%
Other Income 2,377 1,118 316 1,839 1,755 -2,065 973 2,110 3,846 3,217 7,262 3% 2% 0% 2% 2% -2% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Interest 2,842 3,346 3,699 3,996 4,717 6,799 7,459 8,265 10,265 10,503 10,448 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 8% 7% 6% 6%
Profit before tax 10,547 10,596 12,052 15,600 8,831 19,295 15,695 20,740 23,476 24,679 26,517 Chart of PAT Margin
Tax 256 -174 2,667 5,257 -2,919 9,182 1,925 4,458 6,279 6,600 7,090
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT) 10,291 10,770 9,385 10,343 11,750 10,113 13,770 16,282 17,197 18,079 19,428 PAT Margin 14% 15% 12% 12% 13% 10% 14% 13% 11% 11% 12%
Effective Income Tax Rate 2% -2% 22% 34% -33% 48% 12% 21% 27% 27%
Marginal Income Tax Rate 34.61% 34.61% 34.61% 35.00% 30.00% 25.17% 25.17% 25.17% 25.17% #N/A
MARGINAL INCOME TAX DATA
GROWTH ANALYSIS Source KPMG for the years from 2011 until 2019
SALES Op. EBIT PAT from FY20 onwards, it is assumed that domestic companies will take advantage of Section 115BAA
9 Year CAGR 9% 13% 6% Mar-11 32.44%
7 Year CAGR 11% 11% 10% Mar-12 32.45%
5 Year CAGR 12% 22% 9% Mar-13 33.99%
3 Year CAGR 18% 13% 10% Mar-14 33.99%
TTM CAGR 4% -7% 7% Mar-15 34.61%
Mar-16 34.61%
Mar-17 34.61%
DEBT & SOLVENCY RATIOS Mar-18 35.00%
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-19 30.00%
Debt 85,995 93,127 106,840 121,605 142,807 168,712 176,466 185,578 187,271 186,206 Mar-20 25.17%
Equity 81,657 91,294 96,231 101,778 107,408 113,569 118,985 128,668 138,890 149,885 Mar-21 25.17%
Mar-22 25.17%
Debt Coverage Ratios (Lower is Better) Mar-23 25.17%
Debt/Equity Ratio 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Debt/EBITDA 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 7.5 4.6 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.1
- Interest -3,346 -3,699 -3,996 -4,717 -6,799 -7,459 -8,265 -10,265 -10,503
+ Tax Benefit from Interest (Int x Tax) 1,158 1,280 1,399 1,415 1,711 1,877 2,080 2,584 #N/A
- Debt Repayment - - - - - - - - -1,065
+ New Debt 7,132 13,713 14,764 21,202 25,905 7,755 9,112 1,693 -
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY (FCFE) -253 2,211 4,176 7,396 18,724 7,225 -2,615 30,681 #N/A
Total CFO - Int Tax Shield #N/A (Cum CFO - Interest)/Cum PAT 257% (ideally, should be more than 75%. Higher the better)
- Total Capex -208,045
TOTAL FCFF #N/A Cum FCFF/Cum EBIAT #N/A
(Payout Ratio)
- Total Interest + Int Tax Benefit #N/A
Total FCFE through operations #N/A
VALUATION MULTIPLES
Based on Equity Value
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 2.3.25
No. of shares (in crores) 989 989 989 989 989 989 970 970 970 970 970
EPS 10 11 9 10 12 10 14 17 18 19 20
Stock Price 122 107 138 141 135 84 107 135 175 336 325 1/(P/E) Current Bond Yield
P / ETTM 11.8 9.9 14.6 13.5 11.3 8.2 7.5 8.0 9.9 18.0 16.2 6% 10% no margin of safety
Book Value / Share 82.5 92.3 97.3 102.9 108.6 114.8 122.7 132.7 143.2 154.6 154.6
P/B 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.1
EBITDA 18,300 19,114 21,672 26,695 20,802 34,717 33,566 41,063 46,878 49,126 51,716
EV / EBITDATTM 15.3 10.2 11.1 9.6 13.2 7.2 8.3 7.6 7.5 10.3
EV / Sales 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.1
DIVIDENDS
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 2.3.25
Dividends (Rs crores) 2,061 2,762 3,941 4,222 6,016 3,117 5,963 6,788 7,030 7,515
Dividends/Net Profit 20% 26% 42% 41% 51% 31% 43% 42% 41% 42%
Dividends/Share 2.1 2.8 4.0 4.3 6.1 3.1 6.1 7.0 7.2 7.7
Stock Dividend Yield 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2%
% RETURN IF YOU PURCHASED THE STOCK IN THE PAST AND SOLD IT TODAY
INPUT Date of Purchase Mar/20
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 2.3.25
Stock Bought - - - - - -84 - - - -
Dividends - - - - - 3.1 6.1 7.0 7.2 7.7
Stock Sold 325
Total - - - - - -81 6 7 7 8 325
IRR 37.5%
NOTE: The IRR calculated above DOES NOT account for buybacks, if any, by a company
Free CF yield / Acquirer's multiple Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
FCFF - -5,197 -9,083 -7,990 -10,504 -2,093 5,052 -5,541 36,669 #N/A
EV 280,192 194,905 240,782 257,556 273,942 249,815 277,446 313,736 353,319 507,221
FCFF / EV 0% -3% -4% -3% -4% -1% 2% -2% 10% #N/A #N/A
Acquirer's multiple 25.45 15.20 15.60 14.50 23.23 8.87 12.51 11.67 11.82 15.87
Fragility Scorecard
Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Total equity 81657.35 91293.7 96231.23 101777.77 107408.17 113569.44 118985.49 128667.5 138889.88 149885.02
Total liabilities 197220.5 215231.22 236680.35 267961.77 291002.14 327837.93 343366.87 371360.5 383876.79 393,530
Equity as % total liabilities 41% 42% 41% 38% 37% 35% 35% 35% 36% 38% [Higher the better]
Interest + Depreciation 7753.38 8518.66 9619.74 11095.11 11971.1 15421.89 17870.9 20323.69 23401.79 24446.27
Operating profit % 15% 18% 20% 21% 13% 29% 22% 22% 18% 20%
Break even sales 51143.210662608 47060.858449 48783.262318 52142.006031 91669.17 53507.44367151 79928.505910761 91567.79 128196.61554 123880.2
Actual sales 72,634 70,844 78,273 83,453 90,307 97,700 99,207 121,175 163,770 161,985
Break even sales as % of sales 70% 66% 62% 62% 102% 55% 81% 76% 78% 76% [Lower the better]
Cash from operating activities 14,235 23,987 20,014 19,250 16,157 21,584 27,058 37,898 42,351 34,831
Interest + Depreciation 7753.38 8518.66 9619.74 11095.11 11971.1 15421.89 17870.9 20323.69 23401.79 24446.27
20% of borrowings 17199.068 18625.448 21368.042 24320.922 28561.314 33742.334 35293.234 37115.54 37454.214 37241.202
Yearly debt obligations as a % of cash flow from 0.57 0.88 0.65 0.54 0.40 0.44 0.51 0.66 0.70 0.56 [Higher the better]
Net Block 78,849 91,773 99,356 119,759 125,621 156,811 164,449 195,571 197,361 212,611 40% 43% 42% 45% 43% 48% 48% 53% 51% 54%
Capital Work in Progress 56,493 66,423 80,737 79,076 91,207 73,359 75,439 73,618 61,789 47,157 29% 31% 34% 30% 31% 22% 22% 20% 16% 12%
Cash & Bank 12,879 4,461 2,930 3,978 2,144 2,209 2,338 2,747 3,742 4,601 7% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Investments 9,032 8,393 8,248 10,047 13,146 26,401 28,626 23,249 29,770 33,158 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 8% 8% 6% 8% 8%
Inventory 7,539 7,103 6,608 6,187 8,239 10,902 9,369 9,911 13,882 17,606 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Receivables 7,604 7,732 8,138 7,578 8,434 15,615 22,976 24,747 26,029 27,348 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Loans & Advances (Manually co 2 3 2 3 2 21 41 2 2 1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 24,822 29,342 30,661 41,332 42,209 42,519 40,129 41,515 51,303 51,050 13% 14% 13% 15% 15% 13% 12% 11% 13% 13%
TOTAL ASSETS 197,221 215,231 236,680 267,962 291,002 327,838 343,367 371,361 383,877 393,530 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Invested Capital from the Liability Side of Balance Sheet = (Book Value of Equity + Book Value of Debt - Cash)
Invested Capital 154,774 179,960 200,141 219,404 248,070 280,072 293,113 311,498 322,419 331,491
Average Invested Capital 167,367 190,051 209,772 233,737 264,071 286,593 302,306 316,959 326,955
Median Min Max
ROIC (EBIAT / Average Invested Capital) 8% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 8%
with DuPont breakup
EBIAT/Sales 18% 15% 14% 17% 15% 20% 17% 13% 14% 15% 13% 20%
Sales/Av Invested Capital 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5
Fixed Asset 135,343 158,196 180,093 198,835 216,827 230,171 239,887 269,188 259,150 259,768
Average Fixed Assets 146,770 169,145 189,464 207,831 223,499 235,029 254,538 264,169 259,459
Av Fixed Assets/Sales 207% 216% 227% 230% 229% 237% 210% 161% 160% 216% 160% 237%
Av Fixed Asset Turnover 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6
Average Invested Capital from the Asset Side of Balance Sheet = Average Net Block & CWIP + Average Net Working Capital
Average Invested Capital 161,608 183,780 203,573 222,915 244,943 264,310 287,910 301,307 301,711
Av Fixed Asset Turnover 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
Av Working Capital Turnover 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.0 4.6 3.4 3.6 4.4 3.8
Average Inventory Days 38 32 28 29 36 37 29 27 35 Note: Inventory Days and Payable Days are calculated using Sales & not COGS
Average Receivable Days 40 37 34 32 45 71 72 57 60
Average Payable Days 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Average Working Capital Cycle Days 76 68 62 61 80 108 101 83 95
Median Min Max Chart of ROIC Pre-Tax
ROIC Pre-Tax 8% 8% 9% 5% 11% 8% 9% 10% 11% 9% 5% 11%
Effective Tax Rate -2% 22% 34% -33% 48% 12% 21% 27% 27%
ROIC 8% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% 8%
NOTES:
1) The formula used for breaking up ROIC into its components is given in the adjacent image
2) To correctly calculate ROIC you need to several adjustments such as Identifying operating assets,
Capitalizing Operating & Financial Expenses, removing one-time & extra-ordinary items, adjusting taxes, etc
These adjustments are ESSENTIAL to get a correct measurement of ROIC or any other return such as ROE, ROA,
ROCE, etc. However, to do the same we need more granular level data from the Annual Report
HENCE, ROIC calculated without adjustments are ROUGH ESTIMATES of the actual return
Input ONLY in Cells denoted as:
ROIC ESTIMATOR
Calculate the impact of ROIC of a company using your estimates of margins, tax and capital efficiency ratios
ROIC Pre-Tax ( 1 x 2) 9%
1) Refer to the historical ranges of these inputs so that you make more informed estimates.
It is very much possible that you can have estimates higher/lower than the historical ranges.
But you should have strong reasons for doing so
2) Remember that these historical numbers are without adjustments as stated in the previous tab
NOTES:
1) The adjacent formula is used to convert ROIC (calculated from above) into ROE
capital efficiency ratios
0.4 0.6
27 38
32 72
0.32651 0.777979
-33% 48%
previous tab
Dec-24 Dec-23 Dec-22 Sep-24 Sep-23 Sep-22 Jun-24 Jun-23 Mar-24 Mar-23
Sales 41,352 39,455 41,411 40,328 40,875 41,015 44,419 39,122 42,532 41,318
5% -5% -1% 0% 14% 3%
Operating Profit 7,878 6,450 8,194 6,029 7,073 5,848 8,189 7,677 7,606 7,716
22% -21% -15% 21% 7% -1%
COMPANY NAME NTPC LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEAS
CURRENT VERSION 2.10
META
Number of shares 969.67
Face Value 10.00
Current Price 325.15
Market Capitalization 315,287.10
Quarters
Report Date Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23
Sales 41,015.14 41,410.52 41,317.86 39,122.25
Expenses 31,880.34 29,904.82 30,208.35 28,185.26
Other Income 1,607.93 738.34 2,081.29 558.44
Depreciation 3,287.15 3,312.12 3,393.29 3,260.34
Interest 2,350.25 2,874.44 2,581.66 2,514.94
Profit before tax 5,105.33 6,057.48 7,215.85 5,720.15
Tax 1,774.13 1,581.23 1,543.53 1,654.11
Net profit 3,331.20 4,476.25 5,672.32 4,066.04
Operating Profit 9,134.80 11,505.70 11,109.51 10,936.99
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 8,245.46 8,245.46 8,245.46 8,245.46
Reserves 73,411.89 83,048.24 87,985.77 93,532.31
Borrowings 85,995.34 93,127.24 106,840.21 121,604.61
Other Liabilities 29,567.81 30,810.28 33,608.91 44,579.39
Total 197,220.50 215,231.22 236,680.35 267,961.77
Net Block 78,849.07 91,773.25 99,355.72 119,759.17
Capital Work in Progress 56,493.49 66,423.20 80,737.09 79,076.27
Investments 9,032.13 8,393.04 8,248.11 10,047.48
Other Assets 52,845.81 48,641.73 48,339.43 59,078.85
Total 197,220.50 215,231.22 236,680.35 267,961.77
Receivables 7,604.37 7,732.22 8,137.92 7,577.97
Inventory 7,538.78 7,103.27 6,607.67 6,187.06
Cash & Bank 12,878.81 4,460.78 2,930.49 3,978.38
No. of Equity Shares ### ### ### ###
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Cash from Operating Activity 14,234.70 23,987.38 20,013.92 19,249.75
Cash from Investing Activity -14,562.58 -18,346.01 -24,414.18 -20,389.59
Cash from Financing Activity -1,878.08 -4,549.62 3,184.98 1,043.21
Net Cash Flow -2,205.96 1,091.75 -1,215.28 -96.63
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 989.46 989.46 989.46 989.46
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET