Topic 2:

PROBABILITY

MATH 403: Engineering Data Analysis

Engr. Alvin D. Javier
Lecturer 1

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
At the end of this chapter, it is expected that the students
will be able to:
1. Understand and describe sample spaces and events for
random experiments.
2. Explain the concept of probability and its application to
different situations.
3. Define and illustrate the probability rules.
4. Solve for the probability of different statistical data.

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PROBABILITY
• This is simply how likely an event is to happen.
• The likelihood of an outcome is measured by assigning a
number from the interval [0, 1] or as percentage from 0 to
100%.

𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

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PROBABILITY
EXPERIMENT – used to describe any process that
generates a set of data.

EVENT – consists of a set of possible outcomes of a

probability experiment.
1. SIMPLE EVENT – an event with one outcome.
2. COMPOUND EVENT – an event with more than one
outcome.

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Sample Space & Relationship
among Events
Chapter 2 | Probability

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SAMPLE SPACE & EVENT
SAMPLE SPACE - is the set of all possible outcomes or
results of a random experiment.
• Sample space is represented by letter S.
• Each outcome in the sample space is called an element
of that set.

EVENT - is the subset of this sample space, and it is

represented by letter E.

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A B A B A B

(a) (b) (c)

A A

B C B C
(d) (e)

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Operations of Events
Chapter 2 | Probability

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
The intersection of two events A and B is denoted by the
symbol A ∩ B. It is the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B.

Example:
• Let A = {3,6,9,12,15} and B = {1,3,5,8,12,15,17}, A ∩ B?
• Let X = {q, w, e, r, t,} and Y = {a, s, d, f}, X ∩ Y?

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
We can say that an event is mutually exclusive if they have no
elements in common.

A B

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
UNION OF EVENTS
The union of events A and B is the event containing all the
elements that belong to A or to B or to both and is denoted by the
symbol A ∪ B. The elements A ∪ B maybe listed or defined by the
rule A ∪ B = { x | x ∈ A or x ∈ B}.

Example:
• Let A = {a, e, i, o, u} and B = {b, c, d, e, f), A ∪ B?
• Let X = {1,2,3,4} and Y = {3,4,5,6}, X ∪ Y?

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the set of
all elements of S that are not in A and is denoted by A’.

Example:
• Let S = {ME, ChE, EE, CrE, MetE, FE, PetE, CpE),
if A = {ChE, CerE, FE, MetE}, what is A’?

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Sample space and events play important roles in probability.
Once we have sample space and event, we can easily find the
probability of that event.

𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑡

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝑆)

Each probability:
𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏

Sum of all probabilities:

𝑷 𝑺 =𝟏

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OPERATIONS OF EVENTS
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Example:
If a die is tossed, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. The probability of getting
odd numbers in a single throw of dice is given by ________.

Given: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}; n(S) = 6

E = {1, 3, 5}; n(E) = 3

Solution:
𝑛 𝐸 3 𝟏
𝑃 𝐸 = = =
𝑛 𝑆 6 𝟐

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Counting Rules
Chapter 2 | Probability

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COUNTING RULES
MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
The probability of occurrence of both the events A and B is
equal to the product of the probability of B occurring and the
conditional probability that event A occurring given that event B
occurs.
• Dependent Events
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ∙ P(A|B)
• Independent Events
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ∙ P(A)

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COUNTING RULES
MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
Example:
An urn contains 20 red and 10 blue balls. Two balls are drawn
from a bag one after the other without replacement. What is the
probability that both the balls drawn are red?

Solution: Dependent thus, P(A ∩ B) = P(B) ∙ P(A|B)

Let A and B = events that the first and the second balls drawn are
red balls

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COUNTING RULES
MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
P(A) = P(red balls in first draw) = 20/30
P(B|A) = 19/29

By multiplication rule of probability,

P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B|A)
20 19 𝟑𝟖
P(A∩B) = × =
30 29 𝟖𝟕

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COUNTING RULES
PERMUTATION RULE
Permutation refers to the arrangement of all or part of a set of
objects, with regard to the order of the arrangement. While dealing
with permutation, one should concern about the selection, as well
as arrangement.

𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

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COUNTING RULES
PERMUTATION RULE (without repetition)
Example 1:
How many 3 letter words with or without meaning can be
formed out of the letters of the word SWING when repetition of
letters is not allowed?
Given: n = 5, r = 3
Solution:
5
5! 5∙4∙3∙2∙1
𝑃3 = = = 𝟔𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
5−3 ! 2∙1

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COUNTING RULES
PERMUTATION RULE (with repetition)
Example 2:
How many 3 letter words with or without meaning can be
formed out of the letters of the word SMOKE when repetition of
words is allowed?
Given: n = 5, r = 3
Solution:
𝑃35 = 𝑛𝑟 = 53 = 𝟏𝟐𝟓 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔

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COUNTING RULES
PERMUTATIONS WITH THINGS THAT ARE ALIKE
The number of permutations of n objects taken altogether,
where r1 are of one kind, and r2 are of the other kind and so on is
given by:

𝑛 𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑖 =
𝑟1 ! 𝑟2 ! … 𝑟𝑘 !

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COUNTING RULES
PERMUTATIONS WITH THINGS THAT ARE ALIKE
Example 1:
How many ways can 3 red, 4 green and 2 blue bulbs can be
arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?

Solution:
9 9!
𝑃𝑟𝑖 = = 𝟏𝟐𝟔𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
3! 4! 2!

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COUNTING RULES
PERMUTATIONS WITH THINGS THAT ARE ALIKE
Example 2:
Determine the possible permutations of the word
MISSISSIPPI.

Solution:
11 11!
𝑃𝑟𝑖 = = 𝟑𝟒𝟔𝟓𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
4! 4! 2! 1!

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COUNTING RULES
COMBINATIONS RULE
The combination formula is used to find the number of ways
of selecting items from a collection, such that the order of selection
does not matter. In simple words, combination involves the
selection of objects or things out of a larger group where order
doesn’t matter.

𝑛!
𝐶𝑟𝑛 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟!

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COUNTING RULES
COMBINATIONS RULE
Example 1:
In how many ways can a committee of 3 members be chosen
from a group with 9 members?

Given: n = 9, r = 3
Solution:
𝑛! 9!
𝐶39 = = = 𝟖𝟒 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟! (9 − 3)! 3!

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COUNTING RULES
COMBINATIONS RULE
Example 2:
A box contains 5 red and 3 blue balls. In how many ways can 2
balls be drawn such that (a) they are both blue?

Given: n = 8, r = 2
Solution:
𝑛! 8!
𝐶23 = = = 𝟐𝟖 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
(𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟! (8 − 2)! 2!

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COUNTING RULES
COMBINATIONS RULE
Example 3:
A box contains 5 red and 3 blue balls. In how many ways can 2 balls be
drawn such that (b) one is red, and one is blue?

Solution:
5!
Red: 𝐶15 = = 5 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
(5−1)!1!
3!
Blue: 𝐶13 = = 3 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
(3−1)!1!

5 ∙ 3 = 15 ways

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Rules of Probability
Chapter 2 | Probability

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
• Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint occur at the same
time.
• The probability that Event A occurs, given that Event B has
occurred, is called a conditional probability. The conditional
probability of Event A, given Event B, is denoted by the symbol
P(A|B).
• The complement of an event is the event not occurring. The
probability that Event A will not occur is denoted by P(A').

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
• The probability that Events A and B both occur is the probability of the
intersection of A and B. The probability of the intersection of Events A
and B is denoted by P(A∩B). If Events A and B are mutually exclusive,
P(A∩B) = 0.
• The probability that Events A or B occur is the probability of the union
of A and B. The probability of the union of Events A and B is denoted by
P(A∪B) .
• If the occurrence of Event A changes the probability of Event B, then
Events A and B are dependent. On the other hand, if the occurrence of
Event A does not change the probability of Event B, then Events A and B
are independent.

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF ADDITION
Rule 1: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵

Rule 2: If events A and B are not mutually exclusive events, then:

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF ADDITION
Example 1:
A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out (a) a work of
fiction is 0.40, (b) a work of non-fiction is 0.30, and (c) both fiction and non-fiction is
0.20. What is the probability that the student checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction,
or both?

Solution:
• Let F = the event that the student checks out fiction;
• Let N = the event that the student checks out non-fiction.

𝑃 𝐹 ∪ 𝑁 = 𝑃 𝐹 + 𝑃 𝑁 − 𝑃 𝐹 ∩ 𝑁 = 0.40 + 0.30 − 0.20

𝑷 𝑭 ∪ 𝑵 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF MULTIPLICATION
Rule 1: When two events A and B are independent, then:

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵

Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is:

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴
where,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 = , 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐴)

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF MULTIPLICATION
Example 1:
A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not meet
customer requirements. Two parts are selected randomly without replacement from the batch.
What is the probability that the second part is defective given that the first part is defective?

Solution:
• Let A = event that the first part selected is defective
• Let B = event that the second part selected is defective.
• P (B|A) =?
If the first part is defective, prior to selecting the second part, the batch contains 849 parts, of
which 49 are defective, therefore:
49
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓𝟕𝟕
849

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF MULTIPLICATION
Example 2:
An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn without replacement from the urn. What is the probability that both
marbles are black?

Solution:
• Let A = event that the first part marble is black
• Let B = event that the second marble is black

(a) 𝑃 𝐴 = 4/10
(b) 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 = 3/9
4 3
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟑𝟑
10 9

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF MULTIPLICATION
Example 3:
Two cards are selected from a pack of cards. What is the
probability that they are both queen?

Solution:
• Let A = first card which is queen
• Let B = second card which is also queen

(a) 𝑃 𝐴 = 4/52
(b) 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 = 3/51
4 3
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒𝟓𝟐𝟓
52 51

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF SUBTRACTION
The probability that event A will occur is equal to 1 minus the
probability that event A will not occur.

𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴′

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RULES OF PROBABILITY
RULE OF SUBTRACTION
Example 1:
The probability of Bill not graduating in college is
0.8. What is the probability that Bill will graduate from
college?

Solution:
(a) 𝑃 𝐴′ = 0.8
𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 0.8 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎
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 Topic 2:
PROBABILITY

MATH 403: Engineering Data Analysis

Engr. Alvin D. Javier
Lecturer 1

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