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The world in 2025: ten issues that will shape the international agenda

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DOI: 10.24241/NotesInt.2024/313/en

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https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2024/313/en
internacionals

ISSN: 2013-4428
313 THE WORLD IN 2025: Ten issues that will
shape the international agenda
DECEMBER
2024

Text finalised on December 15th, 2024. This Nota Internacional is the result of collective reflection on the part of
the CIDOB research team. Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, with contributions from Inés Arco, Anna
Ayuso, Jordi Bacaria, Pol Bargués, Javier Borràs, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Daniel Castilla, Carmen Claudín,
Patrizia Cogo, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Patrícia Garcia-Duran, Víctor García,
Seán Golden, Rafael Grasa, Josep M. Lloveras, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Oscar Mateos, Pol Morillas,
Francesco Pasetti, Roberto Ortiz de Zárate, Héctor Sánchez, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Laia Tarragona and Alexandra Vidal.

2
025 will be a year of post-election hangover. The
2025 begins with more questions world has now cast its vote, and it has done so
than answers. The world has already in many cases from a place of anger, discontent
voted and now it is time to see what or fear. Over 1.6 billion people went to the polls in
2024 and in general they did so to punish the parties
policies await us. What impact will the in power. The list of defeated rulers is a long one: US
winning agendas have? How far will the Democrats, UK Conservatives, “Macronism” in France,
unpredictability of Trump 2.0 go? And, the Portuguese left. Even those who weathered the
above all, are we looking at a Trump as a storm have been weakened, as shown by the election
debacle of Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling party in Japan, or the
factor of change or a source of commotion coalitions necessary in the India of Narendra Modi or
and political fireworks? the South Africa of Cyril Ramaphosa.

In 2025 there will be talk of ceasefires, but The election super-cycle of 2024 has left democracy a
not of peace. The diplomatic offensive little more bruised. The countries experiencing a net
decline in democratic performance far outnumber those
will gain ground in Ukraine, while managing to move forward. According to The Global
the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar State of Democracy 2024 report, four out of nine states are
al-Assad opens an uncertain political worse off than before in terms of democracy and only
transition. These movements will test around one in four have seen an improvement in quality.
an international system incapable
2025 is the year of Donald Trump’s return to the
of resolving the structural causes of White House and of a new institutional journey
conflicts. in the European Union (EU) underpinned by
unprecedentedly weak parliamentary support. The
The world is struggling with the West’s democratic volatility is colliding with the
posturing of new leaderships, the geopolitical hyperactivity of the Global South and
the virulence of armed conflict hotspots.
shifting landscapes that are redefining
long-running conflicts and a Sino-US Which is why 2025 begins with more questions than
rivalry that may develop into a trade and answers. With the polls closed and the votes counted,
tech war in the near future. Fear, as a what policies await us? What impact will the winning
agendas have? How far will the unpredictability of
dynamic that permeates policies, both in Trump 2.0 go? And, above all, are we looking at a
the migration field and in international Trump as a factor of change or a source of commotion
relations, will gain ground in 2025. and political fireworks?

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 1

Even if the United States today is a retreating power Ten Issues That Will Shape the International Agenda
and power has spread to new actors (both public and
private) who have been challenging Washington’s
hegemony for some time now, Donald Trump’s 10.
1.
return to the presidency means the world must Militarisation
Ego-politics
and individualism
readjust. Global geopolitical equilibriums and the of insecurity

various conflicts raging – particularly in Ukraine

2.
and the Middle East – as well as the fight against 9.
Deportation Truce without
climate change or the levels of unpredictability of of migrants and rights peace

a shifting international order could all hinge on the

new White House incumbent. The fall of the Syrian

2025
8. 3.
regime of Bashar al-Assad opens an uncertain Gender: Protectionism
political transition, which reinforces the idea that End of Consensus and austerity

2025 will be a year of need for diplomatic processes

that accompany the geopolitical rebalancing that may 7.
come in the coming months. Climate 4.
emergencies Global dismantling
with no collective of institutions
We also live in a world still weighed down by the leadership 5.
6.
impact of COVID-19. Five years after the coronavirus A “Third
Technological
clash and
pandemic, many countries continue to grapple Nuclear Age”? (de)regulatory
with the debt they took on to combat the economic pressure

and social damage of that global health crisis. The

pandemic left us a world deeper in debt, one that Source: Elaborated by CIDOB.
is more digitalised and individualistic, where the
discordant voices among the major global powers
have been gaining ground; where climate, economic
and geopolitical goals are becoming increasingly of power. The world’s richest individual, clutching
divergent. It is a world in which not only policies the loudest megaphone in a digitalised society, is
clash, but discourses too. The old social and cultural stepping into the White House to act as the president’s
fault lines have become more evident: from culture right-hand man. Musk is a “global power”, the
wars to the struggle for control over information and holder of a political agenda and private interests that
algorithmically inflated bubbles on social media. many democratic governments do not know how
The elections in the United States, Pakistan, India, to negotiate. In this shift in power (both public and
Romania, Moldova or Georgia are a clear illustration private) the cryptocurrency industry accounted for
of the destabilising power of “alternative” narratives. nearly half of all the money big corporations paid into
political action committees (PACs) in 2024, according
The US election hangover, then, will not be the type to a report by the progressive NGO Public Citizen.
to be cured with rest and a broth. Trump himself will
see to ramping up the political posturing as he makes The last political cycle – from 2020 to 2024 – was
his return to the Oval Office starting January 20th. Yet, characterised by “election denialism”: a losing
above the rhetorical noise, it is hard to distinguish candidate or party disputed the outcome of one in
what answers will be put in place, to what extent five elections. In 2025, this denialism has reached the
we are entering a year that will further reinforce the Oval Office. The myth of the triumphant narcissist
barriers and withdrawal that have turned society has been bolstered by the ballot box. It is the triumph
inwards and fragmented global hyperconnectivity; of ego over charisma. Some call it “ego-politics”.
or if, on the other hand, we shall see the emergence of
a still tentative determination to imagine alternative Ever more voices are challenging the status quo of
policies that provide answers to the real causes of democracies in crisis. Anti-politics is taking root in
discontent and try to reconstruct increasingly fragile the face of mainstream parties that are drifting ever
consensuses. further away from their traditional voters. Trump
himself believes he is the leader of a “movement”
(Make America Great Again, or MAGA) that
1. Politics and Individualism transcends the reality of the Republican Party. These
new anti-establishment figures have gradually
2025 is the year of posturing and personalism. We gained ground, allies and prophets. From the illiberal
shall see the emergence not just of new leaderships, media phenomenon of the Argentinian president
but also of new political actors. The magnate Elon Javier Milei – who will face his first big test in
Musk’s entry into the campaign and Donald Trump’s the parliamentary elections of October – to Călin
new administration personify this shift in the exercise Georgescu, the far-right candidate for the presidency

2 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

Election Year: All Governments Without Exception Lose Votes
For the first time, all governments simultaneously lost votes, without exception, across the entire historical series
dating back to 1905.

20

10

-10

-20

-20
2024
-30
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
Note: Simplified version of the original graph. Only the maximum and minimum percentage gains and losses in the distribution of electoral results are shown for the countries monitored
by the ParlGov research project (University of Bremen).
Source: Elaborated by CIDOB. based on data from Burn-Murdoch, John. “Democrats join 2024’s graveyard of incumbents”. Financial Times, November 7, 2024.

of Romania who carved a niche for himself against all In 2025, we shall also see an escalation of the political
odds, without the support of a party behind him and drama in the Philippines between the country’s two
thanks to an anti-establishment campaign targeting most powerful political clans, brought on by the
young people on TikTok. He is the latest example of toxic relationship between the president, Fernando
a 2024 that has also seen the arrival in the European “Bongbong” Marcos, and his vice president, Sara
Parliament of the Spanish social media personality Duterte, and which includes death threats and
Alvise Pérez and his Se Acabó la Fiesta (“The Party’s corruption accusations. The return to politics of
Over”) platform, garnering
over 800,000 votes, or the In 2025, the election denialism has reached the Oval
Cypriot youtuber Fidias
Panayiotou, among whose Office. The myth of the triumphant narcissist has been
achievements to date
number having spent bolstered by the ballot box. It is the triumph of ego over
a week in a coffin and
having managed to hug charisma. Some call it “ego-politics”.
100 celebrities, Elon Musk
included. the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, nicknamed
the “Asian Trump”, who in November registered
All this also has an impact on a Europe of weak his candidacy for the mayoralty of Davao, and the
leaderships and fractured parliaments, with the midterm elections in May will deepen the domestic
Franco-German engine of European integration tension and division in the archipelago. In South Korea,
feebler than ever. Indeed, the hyper-presidentialism meanwhile, 2024 is ending with signs of resistance.
of Emmanuel Macron, who also embraced the idea President Yoon Suk Yeol, also considered an outsider
of the En Marche movement to dismantle the Fifth who triumphed in what was dubbed the incel election
Republic’s system of traditional parties, will have to of 2022, faced popular protests and action by the
navigate 2025 as a lame duck, with no possibility of country’s main trade unions after declaring martial
calling legislative elections again until June. Germany, law in response to political deadlock. The Korean
meanwhile, will go to the polls in February with an Parliament has voted to initiate an impeachment
ailing economic model, rampant social discontent process to remove Yoon Suk Yeol and, if it goes ahead,
and doubts about the guarantees of clarity and the country will hold elections before spring
political strength that might be delivered by elections
that have the far-right party Alternative for Germany The year also starts with individualism on the rise.
(AfD) lying second in the polls. We live in a more emotional and less institutional

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 3

Domestic Retreat Among Younger Generations
Proportion of respondents who agree with the statement: “I consider myself more a citizen of the world than of the
country I live in”
20

38 39
37 Boomers (1946-1964)
10 35
32 33 33 32 32 Gen X (1965-1979)

0 29 Millennials (1980-1994)
27
25 Gen Z (1995-2012)
-10

-20

-20

-30
% of agreement % of agreement % of agreement
in high-income in middle- and low- (total, weighted
countries income countries by population)

Note: Data obtained from 21,000 surveys conducted by Ipsos across 31 countries in May 2024.
Source: Elaborated by CIDOB based on a chart from Global Nation (2024), Global Solidarity Report 2024.

world. If fear and anger have become what drive in less wealthy countries”, and this indifference is
people when it comes to voting, this growing sense especially evident in relation to supporting whether
of despair is worryingly high among young people. international bodies should have the right to enforce
In the 2024 European elections there was a decline possible solutions.
in turnout among the under-25s. Only 36% of voters
from this age group cast their ballot, a 6% decrease
in turnout from the 2019 elections. Among the young 2. Truce Without Peace
people who failed to vote, 28% said the main reason
was a lack of interest in politics (a greater percentage A year of global geopolitical turmoil ended with
than the 20% among the adult population as a whole); the surprise collapse of the Bashar Al-Assad regime
in Syria; but also, with
Ukraine is torn between war fatigue and the need for a three-way meeting
between Donald Trump,
military support and security guarantees that the Trump Volodymyr Zelenskyy and
Emmanuel Macron in Paris,
administration may not deliver. Although, given the against the backdrop of the
reopening of Notre Dame.
prospect of a capricious Trump, nor can we rule out The rhythms of diplomacy
the possible consequences for Vladimir Putin of failing and the quickening pace
of war are out of step on
to accept a negotiation put forward by the new US international political
agendas. And Russia, the
administration. common thread running
through recent events in
14% cited distrust in politics, and 10% felt their vote Syria and Ukraine, is quick to issue a reminder that
would not change anything. In addition, according to any diplomatic moves must also go through Moscow.
the Global Solidarity Report, Gen Z feel less like global Given this backdrop, in 2025 we may speak of
citizens than previous generations, reversing a trend ceasefires, but not of peace.
lasting several decades. This is true for both rich and
poorer countries. The report also notes the perceived For starters, the electoral announcements of a Trump
failure of the international institutions to deliver intent on putting an end to the war in Ukraine “in
tangible positive impacts (such as reducing carbon 24 hours” prompted an escalation of hostilities on
emissions or conflict-related deaths). Disenchantment the ground with various actions: the appearance on
fuses with a profound crisis of solidarity. People the scene of North Korean soldiers in support of the
from wealthy countries are “significantly less Russian troops; authorisation for Ukraine to use US
likely to support solidarity statements than those ATACMS missiles for attacks on Russian soil; and

4 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

the temporary closure of some Western embassies in Hezbollah decimated by Israel’s attacks, the Syrian
Kyiv for security reasons. Speculation about possible president was bereft of the external support that had
negotiations has increased the risk of a tactical propped up his decaying dictatorship. The civil war
escalation to reinforce positions before starting to festering since the Arab revolts of 2011 has entered
discuss ceasefires and concessions. a new stage, which also changes the balance of
power in the Middle East. We are entering a period
While the diplomatic offensive may gain traction in of profound geopolitical rearrangement because for
2025, it remains to be seen what the plan is, who will years Syria had been a proxy battleground for the
sit at the table and what real readiness the sides will United States’ relations with Russia, Iran and Saudi
have to strike an agreement. Ukraine is torn between Arabia.
war fatigue and the need for military support and
security guarantees that the Trump administration We are therefore faced with scenarios that have been
may not deliver. Although, given the prospect of a thrown wide open, where any negotiation proposal
capricious Trump, nor can we rule out the possible put forward will be more a strategic move than a prior
consequences for Vladimir Putin of failing to accept a step to addressing the root causes of the conflicts.
negotiation put forward by the new US administration. And yet these diplomatic moves – individual and
Trump is determined to make his mark from the very personalist initiatives primarily – will once again
start of his presidency, and that might also mean, in a put to the test an international system plagued by
fit of pique, maintaining the military commitment to ineffectiveness when it comes to delivering broad
reinforcing the Ukrainian army. global consensus or serving as a platform to resolve
disputes.
It is also an essential battle for Europe, which must
strive to avoid being left out of negotiations on the
immediate future of a state destined to be a member 3. Protectionism and Austerity
of the EU and where the continent’s security is
currently at stake. The EU will have Poland’s Donald Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency steps
Tusk in charge of the 27 member states’ rotating up the challenge to the international order. If in his
presidency as of January, with the former Estonian first term he decided to pull the United States out
prime minister, Kaja Kallas, making her debut as of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the
the head of European diplomacy. She is currently Paris climate agreement, now he is preceded by the
feeling the vertigo of Trump snatching the reins of announcement of a trade war in the making. The
a hasty peace while the member states have proved existing geo-economic fragmentation – in 2023 nearly
incapable of reaching an agreement on the various 3,000 trade restricting measures were put in place,
scenarios that might emerge in the immediate future. almost triple the number in 2019, according to the
IMF – will now have to contend with an escalation
In any case, the Middle East has already illustrated of the spiral of protectionism should the new US
the frailty and limited credit of this strategy of a administration keep its promise to raise tariffs to
cessation of hostilities without sufficient capacity 60% on Chinese imports; 25% on goods coming
or consensus to seek lasting solutions. The ceasefire from Canada and Mexico, if they fail to take drastic
agreed in the war that Israel is waging against measures against fentanyl or the arrival of migrants at
Hezbollah in Lebanon is more of a timeout in the the US border; and between 10% and 20% on the rest
fighting than a first step towards the resolution of the of its partners. In 2025, the World Trade Organization
conflict. The bombings and attacks after the ceasefire (WTO) marks 30 years since its creation and it will
are an indication of the fragility, if not emptiness, of do so with the threat of a trade war on the horizon,
a plan that neither side believes in. Meanwhile, the a reflection of the state of institutional crisis that is
war in Gaza, where over 44,000 people have died, has paralysing the arbiter of international trade.
entered its second year of devastation, transformed
into the backdrop of this fight to reshape regional As a result, countries are looking to strengthen their
influence, but with a Donald Trump intent on positions through various alliances. The world is
pushing a ceasefire agreement and freeing hostages increasingly plurilateral. India is expanding its free
even before he takes office on January 20th. trade agreements with the United Kingdom and in
Latin America; in 2025 the EU must finally tackle a
The year begins with a change of goals in the region, lengthy obstacle course to ratify the long negotiated
but with no peace. While the Israeli prime minister, deal with Mercosur. Trumpism, what’s more,
Benjamin Netanyahu, made it clear that his priority reinforces this transactional approach: it fuels the
now was to focus on Iran, the regional escalation possibility of more unpredictable partnerships and
unexpectedly hastened the end of the regime of Bashar the need to adapt. Among those that have begun to
al-Assad. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, with reconsider goals and partners is the EU. The European
Iran debilitated economically and strategically, and countries will foreseeably make more purchases of

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 5

China: A Divisive Factor in the European Union?
Analysis of the Vote on Tariffs for Chinese Electric Vehicles

In Favor Abstentions Against

Italy, France, Poland, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Germany, Hungary, Malta,
Netherlands, Ireland, Republic, Greece, Spain, Slovenia, Slovakia
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Austria,
Bulgaria, Denmark Portugal, Romania, Sweden,
Finland

France, Italy, and Ireland

For various reasons, these countries remain firm despite potential Chinese retaliations,
particularly in sensitive sectors like French brandy exports ($1.7 billion) and dairy products from
France, Italy, and Ireland.
Poland and the Baltics
Driven by their rivalry with Russia, these countries lean heavily on Transatlantic ties and
consequently adopt a critical stance towards China.

Spain
China’s warning of potential retaliations on Spanish pork imports ($1.5 billion) may have
influenced Spain’s abstention.

Germany
The only major economy to oppose the sanctions. Pressure from the German automotive sector,
concerned about Chinese retaliations, is cited as a key factor.
Hungary
Hungary has emerged as China’s primary advocate in the EU, largely due to a radical increase in
Chinese investments. In 2023, these investments accounted for half of all Chinese investments in
the EU, surpassing those in France, Germany, and the UK combined.

Source: CIDOB analysis based on data from Demarais, Agathe. “Divided we stand: The EU votes on Chinese electric vehicle tariffs,” ECFR, October 2024; and Blenkinsop, Philip. “EU presses
ahead with Chinese EV tariffs after divided vote,” Reuters, October 4, 2024.

liquefied natural gas and defence products from the Franco-German axis failing and its economic model
United States to appease Trump. Despite US pressure in question. Paris and Berlin are both in a moment
and the profile of the new European Commission of introspection, and the siren calls of austerity are
appearing to presage a harder line from Brussels on once again ringing through some European capitals.
China in the economic sphere, nor can we rule out In France, parliamentary division is impeding an
seeing fresh tension among the EU partners over the agreement to avert a possible debt crisis, while in
degree of flexibility of its de-risking strategy. A US Germany it will be the next government – the one
withdrawal from the global commitments to fight that emerges from the early elections of 23 February
climate change, for example, would intensify the need – that must address the stagnation of the economy
for alliances between Brussels and Beijing in this field. and its lack of competitiveness.
Likewise, it remains to be seen whether the emergence
of European countries more accommodating of this Even though inflation is set to slip out of the picture
geopolitical dependence on China may expose a new somewhat in 2025, the effects of what Trump calls
fault line between member states. “Maganomics” remain to be seen. In the United States,
the introduction of tariffs and the potential decline
Given this uncertainty, recipes for fiscal discipline in the workforce in the wake of “mass deportations”,
are also making a comeback. Brazil ended the year coupled with tax cuts, could increase inflation in the
announcing cuts in public spending to the value country and limit the Federal Reserve’s capacity to
of nearly $12bn; Argentina’s Javier Milei boasts continue lowering interest rates. While Republican
of implementing “the world’s toughest austerity control of both houses in Congress and their majority
policy”; Mexico’s minister of finance and public in the Supreme Court may facilitate the adoption of
credit, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, has vowed to reduce these measures, actually carrying out the deportations
the fiscal deficit in 2025 by pursuing austerity in the appears to be much more difficult in view of the legal
public administration and cutting spending in Pemex and logistical challenges it poses.
(Petróleos Mexicanos). In the United Kingdom, the
prime minister, Labour’s Keir Starmer, has embraced Meanwhile, despite the savings generated by a
the “harsh light of fiscal reality” in the budget and possible pared-back public administration and the
plans to raise some £40bn by increasing taxes and income from tariffs, the independent organisation
cutting spending in order to address the fiscal deficit. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates
that Trump’s measures could increase the deficit
The EU is also preparing to tackle US protectionism significantly and place the debt on a path towards
in the awareness of its own weakness, with the topping 140% of GDP in 10 years, from 99% at present.

6 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

This means investors will be more demanding when opposition in Seoul has triggered political chaos
it comes to buying US debt in the face of the risk of a domestically.
fiscal crisis. It will also be crucial to see whether the
attempts to undermine the independent regulatory In the circumstances, we can expect an increase
agencies or the independence of the central bank are in economic insecurity and an escalation of the
successful. fragmentation of the global economy, where we
can already see like-minded nations moving closer
The IMF’s global growth forecast for 2025 is 3.2%, together. Some key countries in the “reglobalisation”
much the same as the estimate for 2024, but below trend, like Vietnam or Mexico, which had acted as
the pre-pandemic trend. This figure, however, masks intermediaries by attracting Chinese imports and
significant differences between regions, where the investments and increasing their exports to the
strength of the United
States and certain emerging
economies in Asia stands
The EU is also preparing to tackle US protectionism in the
in contrast to the weakness awareness of its own weakness, with the Franco-German
of Europe and China, as
well as the rapid pace of axis failing and its economic model in question. Paris and
the change taking place
globally from consumption Berlin are both in a moment of introspection, and the
of goods to consumption
of services. In Asia, all eyes siren calls of austerity are once again ringing through
will be on the ailing Chinese
economy, weighed down some European capitals.
by its real estate sector, and
how its leaders respond to the new restrictions on United States, will see their model suffer in the face
trade, investment and technology from the United of pressure from the new US administration. The
States. At the close of 2024, the main Asian economies drop in interest rates worldwide, meanwhile, will
were going against the austerity measures expected allow some low-income countries renewed access to
in Europe and America. Both China and Japan have the financial markets, although around 15% of them
announced economic stimulus packages, although are in debt distress and another 40% run the risk of
the desire to cut the 2025 budget on the part of the going the same way.

What Can We Expect from the New “Maganomics”?

1. DEREGULATION 2. PROTECTIONISM 3. TAX CUTS 4. ADMINISTRATIVE CUTS
The new administration aims Trump has promised new tariffs Trump proposes tax cuts—such as Billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek
to eliminate federal regulations to “protect national industries reducing taxes on overtime work—to Ramaswamy are tasked with minimising
in key sectors such as energy, and reduce the trade deficit”, stimulate the economy. However, the federal government, aiming to cut
manufacturing, and finance. This with increases ranging from a this will reduce federal revenues. To 75% of federal workers and reduce
will favour industries like big tech, minimum of 10% to 60% on compensate, he plans to cut public spending by $2 trillion. Drastic measures
fossil fuels producers, big pharma, Chinese imports. According to spending (eliminating programs include eliminating agencies and
and healthcare. calculations from the Peterson that he deems “useless”) and boost cutting basic benefits, despite 70% of
Institute for International revenues through tariffs, risking the federal budget allocated to social
Economics, this will raise the greater debt in the medium term. security.
average annual household
expenditure in the U.S. by $2,600,
disproportionately affecting
poorer households.
7. ENERGY: MORE OF
EVERYTHING, FULL SPEED
5. MASS DEPORTATION OF 6. CONTROLLING THE FED AND AHEAD
IMMIGRANTS WEAKENING THE DOLLAR
Trump aims for “energy
Trump has promised the largest The new administration will dominance” by the U.S.,
deportation of immigrants in U.S. seek influence over the Federal accelerating energy production
history, targeting the 12 million Reserve to depreciate the dollar, and commercialisation. This
undocumented immigrants, boosting U.S. exports. This would includes authorising new gas
of whom 8.4 million are active undermine the independence exploration, increasing LNG
workers. This plan includes of a body designed to remain export licenses, removing
building facilities and mobilising separate from political power. restrictions on polluting energies
military and police forces. like coal and oil, and reviving
controversial projects such as
Source CIDOB Analysis. the Keystone Pipeline, halted by
Biden on his first day in office.

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 7

4. Global Dismantling of Institutions total net worth of the super-rich, those with capital in
excess of $1bn. But for the time being Lula de Silva’s
The brazenness of this world without rules is proposal has gone no further than the debate stage.
only increasing. The undermining of international And while the United States is by far the country
commitments and security frameworks and growing among the most industrialised nations where a much
impunity have been a constant feature of this greater proportion of the wealth and national income
yearly exercise on the part of CIDOB. In 2025, the ends up in the hands of the richest 1%, the arrival
crisis of multilateral cooperation may even reach of the Donald Trump-Elon Musk entente in power in
a peak if personalism takes the lead and does even Washington will make it harder still to approve such
further damage to the consensual spaces of conflict a tax.
resolution, i.e. the United Nations, the International
Criminal Court (ICC) or the WTO. We live in a world Likewise, in October 2024 Israel passed laws barring
that is already less cooperative and more defensive, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for
but now the debate over the funding of this post-1945 Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) from
institutional architecture may help to compound the operating in the country and curtailing its activity in
structural weakness of multilateralism. The United Gaza and the occupied territories of the West Bank by
States currently owes the United Nations $995m for stopping contact between Israeli government actors
the core budget and a further $862m for peacekeeping and the agency. The legislation will come into force at
operations. Donald Trump’s return could lead to an the end of January 2025, exacerbating the humanitarian
even greater loss of funding for the organisation and disaster in Gaza. Although most countries that paused
prevent it from functioning properly. their UNRWA funding have resumed contributions,
the United States withdrew $230m. The mobilisation
It remains to be seen whether, despite the geopolitical of the international community to ensure the survival
rivalry, there are areas where agreement among of UNRWA once the Israeli law takes effect will be
powers is still possible. We remain in a world marked crucial to demonstrate the resilience of humanitarian
by inequality, heightened by the scars of the COVID-19 action; alternatively, it may compound the collapse of
pandemic. Since 2020, the gap between the more another United Nations pillar.
and the least developed countries has been growing
steadily. In 2023, 51% of the countries with a low Similarly, the dismantling of the institutions and
human development index (HDI) had not recovered rules of democracy has impacted spaces for protest
their pre-COVID-19 value, compared to 100% of those in civil society, whether in the United States itself,
with a high HDI. Given these circumstances, it will be in Georgia or in Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, political
crucial to see the outcome of the Fourth International violence scourged Mexico, where as many as 30
Conference on Financing for Development, which candidates are thought to have been murdered in
will take place in Seville in 2025 the runup to the presidential elections of 2024, and
demonstrations were banned in Mozambique. The
In addition, 2024 ended with a bid from Brazil to year 2024 was a tumultuous one globally, marked by
seek an agreement in the G20 to levy the world’s violence in multiple regions: from the ongoing battle
wealthiest people with an annual tax of 2% on the against al-Shabaab in East Africa and the escalating

Multilateral Governance Resists but Doesn’t Work

100

80
Finance
60 Decision-Making
Representation
40 Trade

20

-20

-40
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

Source: Elaborated by CIDOB based on a chart from Global Nation (2024), Global Solidarity Report 2024.

8 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

 Less Public Money, More Private Wealth

1.000
1990. Japan 2008. Financial crisis
Burst of the real estate explosion Spain
bubble
Wealth (% of National Income)

800 Japan
United Kingdom
600 France

United States
400
Germany
Private Wealth
200

Public Wealth
-200
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020
Source: Elaborated by CIDOB based on charts from Chancel, Lucas; Piketty, Thomas; Saez, Emmanuel and Zucman, Gabriel. World Inequality Report 2022. World Inequality Lab, 2021.

regional conflict in the Middle East to over 60,000 ruling, on the grounds of the supposed immunity
deaths in the war in Sudan to date. Global conflict of non-signatories of the Rome Statute, while Italy
levels have doubled since 2020, with a 22% increase called it “unfeasible”. The response stands in stark
in the last year alone. contrast to the resolve of the European countries
regarding the arrest warrants issued against
The space for peace is shrinking. In 2025, the EU Vladimir Putin or the leader of the military junta
will end various training or peacebuilding missions in Myanmar, Min Aung Hliang. The situation will
in Mali, the Central Africa
Republic or Kosovo, while
the number of United The space for peace is shrinking. In 2025, the EU will end
Nations peacekeeping
missions will also decrease
various training or peacebuilding missions in Mali, the
in Africa. Similarly, if it is Central Africa Republic or Kosovo, while the number
not renewed, the extended
mandate of the United of United Nations peacekeeping missions will also
Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) will decrease in Africa.
end on August 31st. Some
10,000 blue helmets from 50 nations are deployed in not improve with Trump in the White House. While
the south of the country and they came under Israeli US opposition to the ICC has traditionally been
attack during the incursion against Hezbollah. All bipartisan, the hard-line stance towards the court of
these moves reflect both the broad changes underway the first Trump administration went much further
in the international security system and the crisis of than rhetorical censure, resulting in sanctions
legitimacy UN peacekeeping operations are suffering. against the court itself and its officials, which the
Even so, the eighth peacekeeping Ministerial on the Biden administration subsequently lifted.
future of these operations and the five-year review of
the international peacebuilding architecture will take Which countries will best navigate this gradual
place in May 2025, at a time when the organisation dismantling of the international order? In 2025,
is trying to restore some of its relevance in countries we shall continue to see a highly mobilised Global
gripped by violence like Haiti or Myanmar. South geopolitically, engaged in the reinforcement
of an alternative institutionalisation, which is
While political violence grows, international justice expanding and securing a voice and place for itself
is faltering. Take the division in the international in the world, albeit with no consensus on a new
community caused by the ICC’s arrest warrants reformed and revisionist order. In this framework,
against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Brazil is preparing to preside another two strategic
Netanyahu, and his former defence minister, Yoav international forums in 2025: BRICS+ and COP30.
Gallant, even among European countries that As for Africa, the continent has become a laboratory
recognise the court. France refused to abide by the for a multi-aligned world, with the arrival of actors

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 9

such as India, the Gulf states or Turkey, which now to protect local manufacturers. Canada too announced
compete with and complement more established a 100% duty on imports of Chinese EVs, following
powers like Russia and China. In late 2024, Chad and the example of the EU and the United States, despite
Senegal demanded the end of military cooperation having no EV maker of its own to protect.
with France, including the closure of military bases,
in a bid to assert their sovereignty. South Africa, Given the circumstances, for Xi Jinping 2025 will be
meanwhile, will host the G20, the first time an African a year to reassess the strategy that has enabled China
nation will stage this summit on its soil, following the to gain leadership of five of 13 emerging tech areas,
inclusion of the African Union (AU) into the group. according to Bloomberg: drones, solar panels, lithium
It will mark the end of a four-year cycle in which the batteries, graphene refining and high-speed rail.
summit has been held in Global South countries. And However, a decade on from the start of the Made in
in Asia there is the perception of some pacification China 2025 plan – its road map towards self-sufficiency
processes underway: from the easing of tension on the – development and innovation in the semiconductor
border between China and India, with the withdrawal sector in China has slowed, owing to its inability
of troops in the Himalayas, to the return of trilateral to secure more advanced chips, the machinery to
summits among South Korea, Japan and China after a produce them or more cutting-edge software.
five-year hiatus. The region is withdrawing into itself
in the face of the uncertainty that 2025 holds. Will the chip war escalate with Trump’s return to power?
During the campaign, the
In 2025 we shall see how tech protectionism gains president-elect accused
Taiwan of “stealing the
currency worldwide. Global South and Global North chip business” from the
United States. Yet in 2025
countries have begun to impose tariffs on the Chinese the Taiwan Semiconductor
tech industry, albeit for different reasons. While countries Manufacturing Company
Limited (SMC) will start
such as Mexico and Turkey use tariffs to try to force new large-scale production of
integrated circuits at its
Chinese investment in their territories, others, like South factory in the United States.
The investment in Arizona
Africa, are doing it to protect local manufacturers. by Taiwan’s biggest chip
maker was announced by
the first Trump administration, so it is not hard to
5. Technology Clash and (De)Regulatory Pressure imagine another round of investment in the future
on the part of the new Republican administration to
The tech competition between the United States reinforce supply chain security.
and China is set to gather further pace in 2025. The
final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency have helped In addition, Elon Musk’s influence in the White
to cement the prospect of a clash between Beijing House also promises greater symbiosis between
and Washington, which will mark the new political Silicon Valley and the Pentagon. Tech competition
cycle. On December 2nd, 2024, the introduction of a and the rise in conflicts across the world have restored
third round of controls on exports to China, with the Big Tech’s appetite for public contracts in the defence
collaboration of US allies such as Japan and South field, which means that with Trump’s return its leaders
Korea, further reduced the possibility of obtaining are hoping to gather the fruits of their investments
various types of equipment and software for making in the presidential campaign. Just two days after
semiconductors. China, meanwhile, retaliated with a the elections of November 2024, Amazon and two
ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony, leading AI companies, Anthropic and Palantir, signed
key components in the production of semiconductors, a partnership agreement to develop and supply the
and tighter control over graphite, which is essential US intelligence and defence services with new AI
for lithium batteries. applications and models. It seems likely, then, that the
consensus reached in April 2024 between Biden and Xi
Apart from this bipolar confrontation, in 2025 we shall Jinping to “develop AI technology in the military field
see how tech protectionism gains currency worldwide. in a prudent and responsible manner” will be rendered
Global South countries have begun to impose tariffs obsolete under the new Trump administration.
on the Chinese tech industry, albeit for different
reasons. While countries such as Mexico and Turkey But hyper-technology extends beyond the military
use tariffs to try to force new Chinese investment in field, as it cuts across ever more sectors of the
their territories – particularly in the field of electric administration in ever more countries. The entry
vehicles (EVs) – others, like South Africa, are doing it into force of the Pact on Migration and Asylum

10 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

in Europe, for example, will be accompanied by the international arms race is hotting up without
new technological surveillance measures, from guardrails. According to the Stockholm International
the deployment of drones and AI systems at the Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), both the number
border in states such as Greece to the adaption of and type of nuclear weapons under development
the Eurodac system – the EU database that registers increased over the last year, as nuclear deterrence
asylum seekers – to gather migrants’ biometric data. once again gains traction in the strategies of the nine
This will only consolidate a model of surveillance states that store or have detonated nuclear devices.
and discrimination against this group. That is why the risk of an accident or miscalculation
will still be very present in 2025, both in Ukraine and
It also remains to be seen what impact the new political in Iran.
majorities in the United States and the EU will have
on tech governance. Following a flurry of regulation Indeed, coinciding with 1,000 days since the Russian
creation and legal action in the courts against the invasion of Ukraine and an escalation of fighting on
monopolistic power of the major tech firms, in the ground, Vladimir Putin approved changes to
2025 we shall see a slowdown – if not a reduction Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for
– of new measures against Big Tech. The EU’s new the use of nuclear weapons. The revised text states
political priorities, moreover, will put the emphasis that an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed
in tech on security over
competition, and we shall
see the emergence of an With an increasingly weak global security architecture,
internal debate on current
regulation; over whether
the international arms race is hotting up without
it can be implemented guardrails. According to the SIPRI, both the number and
effectively or whether it
has been too ambitious. type of nuclear weapons under development increased
It is a shift that contrasts
with the regulatory trend, over the last year.
particularly regarding the
use of AI, developing in the rest of the world, from by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault
South Korea to Latin America. on Russia. In order to drive home its message,
the Kremlin threatened to use Russia’s Oreshnik
Lastly, the United Nations proclaimed 2025 as hypersonic missile on Ukraine, capable of carrying
the International Year of Quantum Science and six nuclear warheads and travelling ten times faster
Technology (IYQ). Quantum computing is a branch than the speed of sound. Against this backdrop, the
of IT that will enable the development of more deployment of North Korean soldiers to support
powerful computers that can run more complex Russia on the Ukrainian front in late 2024 also
algorithms, helping to make giant leaps in scientific means the involvement of another nuclear power
research, healthcare, climate science, the energy in the conflict and raises fresh questions about what
sector or finance. Microsoft and another tech firm, Pyongyang will receive in return. Commenting on
Atom Computing, have announced they will begin the subject, the NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte,
marketing their first quantum computer in 2025. said Russia was supporting the development of the
And Google has also unveiled Willow, a quantum weapons and nuclear capabilities of Kim Jong-Un’s
chip that can perform a task in five minutes that it regime. As a result, the threat of a potential upsetting
would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers of the balance in the Korean Peninsula and Trump’s
quadrillions of years to complete. This new generation return to power have further fuelled the nuclear
of supercomputers harnesses our knowledge of debate in Seoul and Tokyo, which had already been
quantum mechanics – the branch of physics that reignited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
studies atomic and subatomic particles – to overcome
the limitations of traditional IT, allowing a host of There could also be changes in the United States’
simultaneous operations. nuclear policy. Project 2025, the ultraconservative
blueprint that means to guide the Trump
administration, champions the resumption of nuclear
6. A “Third Nuclear Age”? testing in the Nevada desert, even though detonating
an underground nuclear bomb would violate the
While algorithmic complexity gathers pace, debates Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT),
about nuclear safety take us back to the past, from a which the United States signed in 1996. The nuclear
new rise of atomic energy to the constant recourse to arms industry already surged under the first Trump
the nuclear threat as a means of intimidation. With administration. This time, however, experts believe
an increasingly weak global security architecture, that if the programme is implemented, it would be

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 11

the most dramatic build-up of nuclear weapons since lift the ban on the deployment of “new nuclear reactor
the start of the first Reagan administration four decades technologies”. A possible return of the Christian
ago. Democrat CDU to the German chancellery, following
the elections in February, could reopen the debate on
At the same time, the two European nuclear states – the decision taken by Angela Merkel in 2023 to close
France and the United Kingdom – are also in a process the last nuclear reactor operating in the country.
of nuclear modernisation. The British government has
been immersed in an expansion of its arsenal of nuclear Lastly, Taiwan, despite a strong aversion to nuclear
warheads since 2021 and, as a member of the AUKUS in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in its
trilateral agreement along with the United States and neighbourhood, is also immersed in a process of
Australia, in 2025 it will train hundreds of Australian reflection on nuclear energy, in a year in which the last
officials in the management of nuclear reactors in order operating plant is to close. Indeed, the need to meet
to prepare Canberra for its future acquisition of nuclear- the growing demand for semiconductors thanks to the
powered submarines. France, too, is developing its AI boom, mentioned in the previous section, has put
own design for a “latest generation“ sub. a huge strain on the country’s energy consumption.
The Taiwanese government is not the only one in this
In addition, 2025 will be a decisive year for Iran’s situation. Microsoft is helping to restart the Three Mile
nuclear programme. The deadline is approaching for Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, which closed in
the world’s powers to start the mechanism to reinstate 2019, while Google (owned by Alphabet) and Amazon
all the sanctions lifted in the deal that put a brake on are investing in next-generation nuclear technology.
Iran’s nuclear expansion, the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (JCPOA). So far, Tehran has already warned
that if the sanctions return, Iran will withdraw from 7. Climate Emergencies With no Collective
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The threat Leadership
only adds to the risk of an escalation of hostilities in the
Middle East and the possibility of Israel considering an 2024 will be hottest year on record. It will also be
attack on nuclear facilities in Iran. the first in which the average temperature exceeds
1.5°C above preindustrial levels, marking a further
Similarly, the nuclear debate has been revived in escalation of the climate crisis and the failure of
Europe, following a global trend. Nuclear energy attempts to keep the global temperature below
production is expected to break world records in that threshold. To June 2024 alone, extreme climate
2025, as more countries invest in reactors to drive phenomena had already caused economic damage to
a value of more than $41bn
The year 2025 will be one to measure commitments, both and impacted millions
of people across the
on finance and taking action. The signatories to the Paris planet. And yet the global
mitigation struggle is faced
Agreement (2015) must present their national action with a growing absence of
political leadership. This
plans to demonstrate they are honouring the agreed was evident in the debates
mitigation commitments. and outcomes of COP29
in Baku, Azerbaijan, in
November, where every
the shift towards a global economy looking to move political effort was devoted to just one battle: finance.
beyond coal and diversify its energy sources. The EU, Even so, the pledge on the part of the wealthiest
which is at a critical juncture as it tries to satisfy the countries to provide $300bn a year by 2035 is
demand for energy while boosting economic growth, considered insufficient to cover the needs of the
is also witnessing fresh impetus in the nuclear debate. poorest countries and ensure climate justice. The cost
Around a quarter of the EU’s energy is nuclear, and of mitigation and adaptation for developing countries
over half is produced in France. In all, there are more is estimated at between $5tn and $6.8tn to 2030. The
than 150 reactors in operation on EU soil. Last April, pessimism, moreover, is borne out by the facts: while
11 EU countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the in 2009 the developed countries made the pledge to
Czech Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, the devote $100bn a year to climate finance, they failed to
Netherlands, Poland and Sweden) signed a declaration meet that goal until 2022.
that urged regulators to “fully unlock” the potential
of nuclear energy and “enable financing conditions” In Baku, in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory and
to support the lifetime extension of existing nuclear the shadow of a political agenda that has relegated
reactors. Italy is mulling whether to cease to be the the climate to the back seat in the face of inflation or
only G7 member without nuclear energy plants and energy prices, the Global North chose not to fight the

12 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

mitigation battle. If at COP28 in Dubai it was said vice president, Ding Xuexiang, China has devoted
for the first time that the world should embark on $24.5bn to global climate finance since 2016. With
a transition beyond fossil fuels, at COP29 it was not greater pressure from Brussels for China to increase
even mentioned. The year 2025 will be one to measure its contributions, we may see the Asian country
commitments, both on finance and taking action. The trying to burnish its image through greater climate
signatories to the Paris Agreement (2015) must present activism in 2025.
their national action plans to demonstrate they are
honouring the agreed mitigation commitments. Still, the major players in renewables are the countries
The scheduled delivery date for this new round of of the Global South. According to a study published
national contributions is February, but it is looking by the think tank RMI, nations of the South are
like many countries will be late and that their level adopting these technologies at a much quicker pace
ambition will not match up to what the science and and on a much greater scale than in the North. The
the climate emergency require. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that
new solar and wind energy facilities in these countries
In addition, the United States – the world’s second have grown by 60% in 2024, with Brazil, Morocco and
biggest greenhouse gas emitter after China – could Vietnam at the head of the pack, reporting a greater
deal a fresh blow to the global fight against climate adoption rate of these energies than part of Europe
change if Donald Trump again decides to withdraw and the United States.
his country from the Paris Agreement, in a repeat of
his first term. He would find it harder, however, to The staging of COP30 in 2025 in Brazil, one of the most
leave the United Nations Framework Convention ambitious countries in terms of climate commitments,
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the treaty that raises even greater hopes and expectations of a new
underpins the agreement and the multilateral talks global impetus in the battle against climate change,
on the climate. But this is not the only question mark one that takes account of the needs and demands of
over the United States’ “green transition”. Trump’s the Global South. While the adaptation discourse, a
pick of Chris Wright, an oil executive from Liberty longstanding demand of these countries, is expected
Energy and a climate crisis denier, to lead the Energy to begin to gain traction on the international and
Department may again put fossil fuels before green local agenda, the change of narrative could hide
energy goals. new challenges. For one, the need to think about a
world beyond the 1.5°C temperature increase. And
The new European Commission must also decide for another, the risk of compounding inequalities
what role it wants to play on the global climate stage. between communities and countries with greater
The new political majorities will make it difficult for adaptation capacity, since poverty is directly linked
the EU to act with one voice on climate matters, as to a country’s resilience to climate risks and its
demonstrated recently in the European Parliament capacity to recover from them. This places developing
with the controversial decision to postpone and dilute countries in a situation of considerable risk, and the
the European deforestation law. Thus in 2025 we will adaptation gap is getting wider.
see growing tension in the EU to lower environmental
regulations and standards.
8. Gender: the End of Consensus
While global progress in the mitigation battle slows
and US leadership on climate matters fades, China In 2025, polarisation around gender consensus will
is expanding its ambition and its influence. In 2025, increase. As conservative agendas gain political
hopes are pinned on China’s energy transition and ground, the international agreements that for
its new role as voluntary financial contributor to the decades have enabled gender equality to advance are
agreement sealed in Baku. According to the experts, under challenge again. On the one hand, 2025 will be
China’s coal and CO2 emissions could peak in 2025 a year of celebration of two international milestones
– five years ahead of its target. The climate progress for women’s rights: the 30th anniversary of the Beijing
China is making will have a clear impact not only on Declaration and Platform for Action, adopted at the
the planet, but also on the Asian giant’s economic and Fourth World Conference on Women (1995), and the
energy interests. Part of China’s economic transition 25th anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution
since the pandemic has been directed at incentivising 1325 (2000) on Women, Peace and Security (WPS).
the development and introduction of renewables, Celebrating the two agreements, adopted at a time
making it the sector that most contributed to the marked by optimism and the successes of transnational
country’s economic growth in 2023. But, at the same feminist movements, will be an invitation to reflect
time, it also has geopolitical implications: the more on lost consensuses, present challenges and the lack
its consumption of renewable energy grows, the of political will to secure their full adoption and
less dependent it is on hydrocarbons imports from implementation. On the other hand, the Generation
third countries, including Russia. According to the Equality forum, launched in 2021 to mark 20 years

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 13

since Resolution 1325 with the aim of consolidating she leads. Just 11 of the 27 commissioners are women
progress on women’s and girls’ rights in five years, – including the president herself and the high
will have to account for its unfulfilled commitments. representative for foreign affairs and security policy,
According to the Population Matters association, one Estonia’s Kaja Kallas. In addition, and as the name
in three countries has made no progress on gender of the post indicates, the figure of commissioner for
matters since 2015, and the situation of women has crisis management and equality – a competence first
worsened in 18 countries, particularly Afghanistan introduced in 2019 – will also be responsible for the
and Venezuela. management and prevention of crises now, diluting
the emphasis on gender parity. Similarly, with a
The difficulty in achieving new consensuses, European Parliament that has shifted right and with
leaderships and political will is apparent in the bid to a greater number of EU governments led by far right
adopt new international plans to protect the rights of and antifeminist groups, it will be difficult to make
women and girls. According to WILPF figures, 30% headway on progressive measures.
of the National Action Plans (NAPs) for domestic
implementation of the WPS agenda expired more Against this backdrop, Donald Trump’s return to the
than two years ago, and the national strategies of 32 presidency of the United States augurs another severe
countries or regional organisations will end between setback for gender equality, particularly in the field of
2024 and 2025, raising a question mark about their sexual and reproductive health rights. The arrival in
updating and renewal in an international context power of Republican candidates is always accompanied
marked by tension and disputes, the rise of the far by the restoration of the Mexico City policy (also
right and polarisation around gender. known as the global gag rule), which places severe
international restrictions on sexual and reproductive
health rights. It is a policy
In 2025, polarisation around gender consensus will that bars NGOs in the health
sector from offering legal
increase. As conservative agendas gain political ground, and safe abortion services
or even actively promoting
the international agreements that for decades have the reform of laws against
enabled gender equality to advance are under challenge voluntary termination of
pregnancy in their own
again. On 2025 will be a year of celebration of two countries if they receive US
funding – even if they do so
international milestones for women’s rights: the 30th with their own funds. Yet
this restriction is not limited
anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for to the field of development
assistance. Among other
Action and the 25th anniversary of UN Security Council measures included in Project
2025, there is the elimination
Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security. of language for gender
equality, sexual orientation
Two agreements to promote gender equality will and gender identity, or the protection of sexual and
end in 2025 and must be renegotiated: the United reproductive health rights in future United Nations
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Gender resolutions, but also in domestic policy and regulations
Equality Strategy and the EU’s Gender Action Plan of the United States.
III (GAP III). In the latter case, it is hard to envisage
a European Commission as committed to gender In 2017, countries such as Sweden and Canada – at the
equality as it was during Ursula von der Leyen’s first time the only ones to have adopted a feminist foreign
term. During that time, the German marked several policy – were quick to fill the void left by the change
gender equality milestones, like the Directive on of US priorities, with the introduction of international
combatting violence against women or EU accession projects like SheDecides, which sought to channel
to the Istanbul Convention. The first steps of her international political support to safeguard women’s
second term, however, have offered a glimpse of “bodily autonomy” throughout the world. Since 2022,
the difficulties she will encounter to continue down however, with Sweden ditching the feminist flag in
that path. While in her presentation of the political foreign policy and other countries such as Canada,
guidelines for the new commission, von der Leyen France or Germany focusing on their upcoming
declared her commitment to gender equality and elections and the domestic political instability they
the LGBTIQ collective, the team of commissioners must face in 2025, it is hard to imagine alternative
proposed by the member states has already leaderships and funding. Europe is experiencing its
challenged her desire for parity in the commission own regression.

14 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

But the reversals in political consensus at the health. There are also doubts about the economic
highest level do not stop there. Following the US sustainability of this type of policy, particularly in
elections, harassment and misogynist texts have view of the prospect of a growth in flows and the
been sweeping social media with messages such as dramatic increase in the number of deportations in
“your body, my choice”, which has registered an the United States already since the pandemic (some
increase of up to 4,600% on X (formerly known as 300,000 people a year). Yet Trump’s victory saw the
Twitter). Cyberviolence against women is on the rise. value of firms engaged in the deportation of migrants
According to a 2023 study, around 98% of deep fakes and monitoring or supervising the border, as well as
are pornographic and target women. These scandals the management of detention centres, rocket on the
have multiplied with AI, opening a debate on the stock market. The deportation business is booming.
regulation and possible criminalisation of such cases.
And deportation is not only an instrument of the
Global North. Iran is considering mass deportations
9. Migrant Deportations and Rights of Afghans; the Turkish deportation system has been
bolstered by hundreds of millions of euros from the
As 2024 comes to an end, thousands of Syrian refugees EU; and Tunisia too is conducting illegal “collective
are returning home. After 14 years of civil war, the expulsions” of immigrants with funds from the EU.
fall of Bashar al-Assad has raised hopes in a country Egypt, meanwhile, for months has been carrying out
facing the world’s largest forced displacement crisis, mass arrests and forced returns of Sudanese refugees.
according to the United Nations, with over 7.2
million internally displaced people – more than two- On a European level, in 2025 the EU member states
thirds of the population – and 6.2 million refugees, must present their national plans to implement the
mainly living in the neighbouring countries of Egypt, new Pact on Migration and Asylum. The rules are
Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and
Turkey. Yet despite the
uncertainty of the political 2025 will be a year of deportations, in terms of discourse
moment and that fact
that fighting is still taking and in practice. Immigration has been the cornerstone
place on the ground, some
EU countries (Germany, of Donald Trump’s political career, and in his second
Italy, Sweden, Denmark,
Finland or Belgium) are
presidential campaign he vowed to carry out the biggest
rushing to suspend the deportation in history. It remains to be seen if we will see
asylum applications of
Syrian refugees as others, staged deportations or what the real impact might be on
like Greece and Austria,
are taking measures to the US labour market of such a policy.
expel them. The Austrian
government has even launched a deportation scheduled to enter into force in 2026, but Spain has
programme that is reassessing the situation of some asked for the use of new tools for border control and
40,000 Syrians who had been granted refugee status the distribution of migrants to be brought forward to
in the country over the last five years. All these next summer. The pact, however, has already been
moves further aggravate the debate among European challenged by some member states, which are calling
partners over the concept of “safe third country” so for it to be replaced by a model that allows migrants
criticised by social organisations. to be transferred to detention centres located outside
the EU in countries that are deemd to be safe. Italy’s
2025 will be a year of deportations, in terms of decision last August to open centres of this type in
discourse and in practice. Immigration has been Albania, though it ended in a resounding legal defeat
the cornerstone of Donald Trump’s political career, for Georgia Meloni’s government, offered a clear
and in his second presidential campaign he vowed foretaste of the growing tension between policy and
to carry out the biggest deportation in history. How the rule of law. In these circumstances, moreover, in
will it be done? It remains to be seen if we will see 2025 judges may become more acutely aware of the
staged deportations or what the real impact might be lack of tools to safeguard the rights to asylum and
on the US labour market of a policy that, according refugee status in a global environment that has been
to multiple studies, is not a zero sum game in favour dismantling international protection for years. The
of US-born workers. Irregular migrants work in war in Gaza – which in its first year caused the forced
different occupations to those born in the United displacement of 85% of the population – illustrates
States; they create demand for goods and services; the calamitous failure of international law, both in the
and they contribute to the country’s long-term fiscal humanitarian field and regarding asylum.

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 15

Fear, as a dynamic that permeates policy both in the country, according to the UN Human Rights
the migration field and in international relations, Office. Meanwhile, the geopolitical crisis of fentanyl,
will gain ground in 2025. That is why the staging of where the epicentre is Mexico as a well-established
deportations has become a symbolic deterrent. The producer of this synthetic drug since the COVID-19
criminalisation of migrants – who feel targeted – and pandemic, has developed into a bilateral problem of
the social burden narrative that certain governments the first order with the United States and Canada and
exploit with an agenda of public cuts, are setting the a threat to Central America.
tone in an international system increasingly obsessed
with border protection and lacking the interest (or In Europe too, port cities like Marseille, Rotterdam
tools) to ensure safe and regular migration. or Antwerp are major points of drug entry and
seizure. Organised crime is currently the biggest
threat facing the Swedish government, with 195
10. Militarisation of Insecurity shootings and 72 bombings that have claimed 30 lives
this last year alone. Globalisation means this new
In this world of fragile institutions, the cracks hyperconnected reality has even reached the islands
through which organised crime can seep and of the Pacific, which now occupy a prominent place
expand are growing. Organised crime networks are on the international strategic chessboard thanks
multimillion dollar, transnational businesses that to a proliferation of trade, diplomatic and security
construct hierarchies and strategic alliances. As commitments. It has also transformed the region’s
the international order fragments, mob geopolitics criminal landscape, with the presence of Asian triads
is evolving with new actors and a change of and crime syndicates, the cartels of Central and
methodology: rather than compete, organised crime South America, and criminal gangs from Australia
groups are cooperating more and more, sharing and New Zealand.
global supply chains for the trafficking of drugs and
According to the Global
In this world of fragile institutions, the cracks through Organised Crime Index,
at least 83% of the world’s
which organised crime can seep and expand are population lives in
countries with high levels
growing. As the international order fragments, mob of crime, when in 2021 it
was 79%. If organised crime
geopolitics is evolving with new actors and a change is one of the winners in this
of methodology: rather than compete, organised crime new fragmented order, the
rise in violence has also
groups are cooperating more and more. brought the imposition of
policies of securitisation. In
Latin America, for instance,
people, environmental crimes, counterfeit medicine the clear choice to militarise security – seeking
or illegal mining – which in some countries, like Peru national solutions (containing the violence) to what is
or Colombia, are as profitable as drug-trafficking, if a transnational challenge – has favoured “firm hand”
not more so. Global networks that stretch from China responses.
to the United States and from Colombia to Australia,
thanks to “narco submarines”, account for the The world is rearming. With the rise in conflicts,
diversification of businesses and locations, but they like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, so
also explain their capacity to penetrate the structures revenues from sales of arms and military services
of power and undermine the rule of law, because they have grown. According to the SIPRI, 2025 will the
exist in a context of increasing corruption of states biggest year for military spending in a long time.
and their legal and security systems. Given these circumstances, the pressure on NATO
countries to increase their defence spending will
In Ecuador, for example, a hotspot of drug-trafficking ramp up again with the return of Donald Trump
on a global scale, the government has declared war on to the White House, but also on account of the
22 criminal organisations and speaks of an “internal unpredictability of the international environment.
armed conflict”. Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, Over the coming months, NATO must negotiate
today is a city in the grip of rival criminal groups various internal fractures: for one, the demand
locked in turf wars, which have led to the various to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP; for
armed gangs seizing control of neighbourhoods, another, the differences among allies over the
police stations and even temporarily blocking the strategies used against Russia. Countries such as
airport. The latest escalation of violence has left nearly Poland and the Baltic nations are calling for a more
4,000 dead and over 700,000 displaced people inside aggressive stance against Moscow, while other

16 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

Evolution of Defence Spending by NATO Members as a % of National GDP (2015, 2020, and 2024)

4,5
2015
4
2020
3,5
2024e
3

2,5

1,5

0,5

0
Poland
Estonia
United States
Latvia
Greece
Lithuania
Finland
Denmark
United King-
dom
Romania
N. Macedonia
Norway
Bulgaria
Sweden
Germany
Hungary
Czech Republic
Turkey
France
Netherlands
Albania
Montenegro
Slovakia
Croatia
Portugal
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Spain
Source: Elaborated by CIDOB based on NATO data, «Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024)».

members, such as Hungary or Turkey, are looking

to maintain a more neutral approach. This could
hinder the formulation of a unified strategy in the
face of threats from Russia and future geopolitical
scenarios in Ukraine. In addition, during his
campaign Trump questioned the commitment to
mutual defence enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO
treaty. If the new US administration adopts a more
isolationist stance, the European allies might doubt
US reliability as a pillar of their security. There is
also growing concern in the EU over the security
of essential components and undersea cable
infrastructures, which are critical to connectivity
and the global economy, particularly in the wake
of several episodes of suspected sabotage like those
seen in the Baltic Sea in the last few months.

Lastly, China’s growing militarisation of its maritime

periphery is also triggering fresh security fears in
Asia. Beijing is promoting – ever more zealously –
a Sinocentric view of the Indo-Pacific region. This
is raising fears that 2025 will see an increase in the
aggressiveness of China’s strategy to turn East Asia
into its exclusive sphere of influence.

Against this backdrop, the quickening pace of

geopolitics raises multiple questions both for analysts
and for international relations actors themselves.
The world is struggling with the posturing of new
leaderships, shifting landscapes that are redefining
long-running conflicts and a Sino-US rivalry that may
develop into a trade and tech war in the near future.
Given this prospect, the multi-alignment efforts that
many countries across the world are trying to make,
with security at heart, are becoming increasingly
complex as confrontation escalates among the major
global powers.

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 17

Ten regions and conflicts to watch

3
4
1
2

1. Syria: At whose mercy? 2. Palestine and Lebanon: 3. Ukraine: Truce and 4. European Union: Turning 5. Latin America:
No peace in sight political price point of irrelevance Exhaustion of Regimes
With the fall of the Al- Without Alternatives
Assad regime and the Despite the weakening of Volodymyr Zelenskyy has The rapid pace of
rebels taking control over Hamas and Hezbollah, the expressed his hope that geopolitical shifts and The 2024 presidential
Damascus, Syria enters ongoing Israeli military the war will end in 2025 the securitisation of the elections in Venezuela
a transitional period full offensive in Gaza, the through diplomatic means. economy are striking at the have deepened the
of uncertainties, ranging expansion of occupation But what will be the price core of the EU’s identity, authoritarian drift to
from the reconfiguration in the West Bank, and of a possible ceasefire? as it remains absent from the so-called “Bolivarian
of the political system to the fragile ceasefire in What will the status of the conflict in the Middle revolution.” The blatant
safeguarding the country’s occupation in Lebanon the current territories East and is divided over electoral fraud and evident
territorial integrity. The do not suggest any occupied by Russia? The Ukraine’s immediate future. lack of popular legitimacy
fragmentation of the prospects for pacification situation on the Ukrainian The internal weakness have eroded the narrative
insurgency made up of or stabilisation of the front is precarious, due to of the Franco-German of resistance shared
multiple factions, the conflict. Prime Minister the difficulty of recruiting engine, coupled with the by other authoritarian
division of the country Benjamin Netanyahu is troops, the time taken by rise of radical right-wing regimes in the region, such
among armed groups likely to urge the new the West to supply and sovereigntist forces as Nicaragua and Cuba.
–including U.S.-backed Trump administration to authorise certain weapons, emboldened by Donald Progressive leaders like
Kurdish fighters– and maintain strong pressure and a certain fatigue on Trump’s victory, further Lula in Brazil and Petro in
the residual presence on Iran. Meanwhile, the the part of donors, which exposes the Union’s Colombia are beginning
of the former regime’s limitations on international will be increased by the fragility. As 2025 begins to show impatience with
military add uncertainty action in Gaza will further unpredictability of Donald with the anticipation of these entrenched conflicts,
to a historic moment that exacerbate the existing Trump in the White House. the German elections, the which are driving massive
teeters between the hope humanitarian catastrophe. With at least 200,000 risk of prolonged inaction waves of migration from
of transition and the fear fatalities in three years and looms large: the EU may populations exhausted by
of chaos. a devastated economy, the face the danger of sliding deprivation and repression.
war in Ukraine is entering a into irrelevance.
new phase.

United States: Trump 2.0 Sudan: Between Stalemate South China Sea: Testing Myanmar: A Crucial Year for Korean Peninsula: New
and Collapse the Limits the Resistance Imbalances?
In his second term, a more
uninhibited Trumpism will Amid a humanitarian crisis After a year of tensions Despite growing support Political instability in the
test the resilience of the U.S. and a looming famine surrounding the Philippines, from Beijing, the defeat of South and Russia’s support
political system, as well as threatening to spill over, China closes 2024 with the military junta no longer for Pyongyang in exchange
the ability of civil groups to negotiations between the another predictable seems impossible. This for North Korean troop
mobilize, given the shrinking Sudanese Armed Forces challenge: a spectacular naval shift comes after the loss of participation in the war
space for protest in recent and the Rapid Support deployment around Taiwan control over the country’s in Ukraine, could reshape
months. Forces remain deadlocked. and the South China Sea. borders to ethnic militias the balance of power on
Meanwhile, the war continues Beijing is solidifying its efforts and the redirection of armed the peninsula, increasing
to escalate, with external to alter the status quo in the resistance toward the central the unpredictability of the
actors such as the United Arab region just ahead of Trump’s regions of the territory. conflict.
Emirates, Chad, and Eritrea return to power.
maintaining their influence
over the conflict.

Source: CIDOB Analysis.

18 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

CIDOB calendar 2025: 80 dates to mark in the diary

January 1 Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia, which were elected in 2024,
will join the council as non-permanent members, replacing Ecuador, Japan, Malta, Mozambique and Switzerland. Meanwhile Algeria,
Guyana, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and South Korea, which were elected in 2023, will start their second year as members.
January 1 Poland takes over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. The government of Donald Tusk
will focus council activity on moving forward with the accession processes of the countries aspiring to join the EU, comprehensive
support for Ukraine and strengthening transatlantic ties with the United States. The latter priority must accommodate an uncomfortable
truth for Brussels: the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
January 1 Bulgaria and Romania become full members of the Schengen area. In November 2024, Austria lifted its veto on the full
integration of Bulgaria and Romania into the Schengen area. The two countries, members of the EU since 2007, were admitted to the
borderless travel zone in March 2024, but checks on people were only lifted at ports and airports. Now the same will apply to land
border checks, and the common visa policy will be in operation at the EU’s external borders.
January 1 Finland takes up the yearly rotating chairmanship of the OSCE. The organisation responsible for maintaining security, peace and
democracy in a hemisphere comprising 57 countries across Europe, Asia and North America has been through some low times since
the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which, despite the condemnation, remains a member. The 32nd OSCE Ministerial Council meeting will
take place in Finland between November and December 2025. The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, who was barred from the
council meeting in 2022, did however attend in 2023 and 2024.
January 1 Handover between the African Union’s ATMIS and AUSSOM missions in Somalia. The AU will remain involved in the efforts to
bring peace to Somalia and stabilise the country – stricken by the al-Qaeda allegiant organisation al-Shabaab – with a new mission,
the third consecutive operation since 2007. However, AUSSOM will come up against escalating tension between the governments of
Somalia and Ethiopia, after Addis Ababa struck a deal on naval access to the Gulf of Aden with the secessionist Republic of Somaliland.
January 1 30th anniversary of the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO enters its third decade of activity in an international
context marked by growing opposition to globalisation, the rise of protectionism worldwide, and Donald Trump’s electoral promise to impose a
60% tariff on Chinese goods and 10-20% on other imports.
January 7 John Mahama is sworn in as president in Ghana. In the English-speaking West African country, which has one of the most robust
democratic systems on the continent, John Mahama, former president of the Republic for the first time in 2012-2017 and candidate of the
opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) party, will return to power. Mahama will take over from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP)
president Nana Akufo-Addo, who defeated him in 2016 and 2020.
January 15 Daniel Chapo takes office as president of Mozambique. The fifth straight president from the leftist FRELIMO party since national
independence in 1975 was declared the winner of the elections of October 9, 2024. His opponents claimed fraud and called for
popular protests. The crackdown left over 30 dead, including children. While rich in natural resources, Mozambique remains mired in
underdevelopment and faces jihadist threats and serious climate risks.
January 20 Donald Trump takes office as president of the United States. The Republican starts a second non-consecutive term after roundly
defeating the Democrat Kamala Harris in the election of November 5, 2024, with promises to deport undocumented immigrants, cut
taxes and levy new trade tariffs. Trump returns to the White House with a more radical nationalist rhetoric than the one that marked his
first term between 2017 and 2021.
January 20-24 Annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (Davos forum). The influential group of thinkers each year convenes figures from
politics, business, academia and civil society to a select and extremely high-profile international gathering in the Swiss town of Davos.
In 2025, it will put three major global challenges up for discussion: geopolitical shocks, stimulating growth to improve living standards
and stewarding a just and inclusive energy transition.
January 26 Presidential elections in Belarus. Unlike in 2020, the dictator Alexander Lukashenko will not even have to pretend there is a
competition at the ballot boxes because the country’s election commission will only allow token candidates to stand, and none from
the gagged opposition. The longest-serving president in Europe – in power since 1994 – and staunch ally of Vladimir Putin is sure to
win a seventh presidential term.
January 31 End of the mandate of EUCAP Sahel Mali. A regional instrument of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the European
Union Capacity Building Mission in Mali was launched in 2015 to assist the government in the fight against organised crime. Its
continuation remains in doubt after the EUTM training mission, geared towards the fight against jihadism, was not renewed in 2024
and following the anti-French turn taken by the military junta in Bamako. Its twin operation in Niger, EUCAP Sahel Niger, also ended in
2024. On September 19, the EUTM in the Central African Republic will likewise come to a end.
February 9 General elections in Ecuador. The centrist Daniel Noboa won the snap presidential election in 2023, called by his predecessor, the
liberal conservative Guillermo Lasso, to avoid impeachment by the country’s congress. Noboa will seek re-election, this time for a
normal constitutional period of four years, in a climate overshadowed by the brutal wave of criminal violence afflicting Ecuador. His
chief rival once again will be Luisa González, a protege of leftist former President Rafael Correa.
February 10 and 11 Artificial Intelligence Action Summit, France. The French government is staging one of many international AI-related events in
2025. Unlike the rest, this action summit will gather heads of state and government and leaders of international organisations, as well
as company CEOs, experts, academics, artists and NGOs. Following on from the summits of 2023 in Bletchley, in the United Kingdom,
and 2024 in Seoul, the Paris meeting will look at how AI can benefit public policy.
February 11-13 13th World Governments Summit, Dubai. The WGS is a Dubai-based organisation that each year gathers leaders from government,
academia and the private sector to debate technological innovation, global challenges and future trends in pursuit of good governance.
The theme of the 2025 edition is “Shaping future governments”.
February 14-16 61st Munich Security Conference. Held every year since 1963, the MSC is recognised as the most important independent forum for
the exchange of opinions on international security. In 2025, over 450 policymakers and high-level officials will discuss, among other
topics, the EU’s role in security and defence, the security implications of climate change and new visions of the global order.
February 15 and 16 38th African Union Summit, Addis Ababa. The AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government will hold an ordinary session in
which Mauritania will hand over the one-year chairpersonship, and the successor to the Chadian Moussa Faki as chairperson of the
African Union Commission will be elected. The Pan-African organisation has been running the NEPAD development programme since
2001 and in 2015 it adopted its Agenda 2063 to hasten the continent’s transformation. Six member states – Burkina Faso, Gabon,
Guinea, Mali, Niger and Sudan – are currently suspended following their respective military coups.

CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024 19

 February 23 Federal elections in Germany. Six days after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister Christian Lindner, of the liberal party
FDP, from the government over budget differences, on November 12, 2024, the Social Democrat came to an agreement with the
Christian Democrat opposition to bring forward by seven months elections due in September. The SPD and The Greens, the only
remaining partner following the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition, go into the vote languishing in the polls, with the CDU/CSU and
the far-right AfD in the lead.
March 1 Yamandú Orsi takes office as president of Uruguay. The candidate from the leftist opposition Broad Front beat the conservative
Álvaro Delgado, from the ruling National Party, in the runoff presidential election of November 24, 2024. The successor to the outgoing
president, Luis Lacalle, has a five-year term. Broad Front’s return, after holding power for the first time between 2005 and 2020, will
precede the celebration of the bicentenary of Uruguay’s Declaration of Independence on August 25.
March 1 End of the mandate of the new Transitional Government in Syria. This was the date announced on December 10, 2024, two
days after the fall of the Baathist regime of Bashar al-Assad in the lightning offensive launched on November 27 against Damascus by
a coalition of rebel groups, by the new Prime Minister, Muhammad al-Bashir. The day before, he was appointed to the post by the main
rebel wing, the Islamist guerrilla group HTS (Hayat Tahrir al Sham) of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and the Syrian Salvation Government,
which Bashir himself had been leading.
March 3-6 19th edition of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. A fresh yearly edition of the world’s leading mobile communication
technologies event, where device manufacturers, service providers, wireless carriers, engineers and scientists unveil the latest
developments in the sector. The 2025 MWC, the theme of which is “Converge. Connect. Create”, will focus on topics including the next
phase of 5G, IoT devices and generative AI.
First quarter Sixth European Political Community Summit, Albania. The EPC came about in 2022 at the initiative of Emmanuel Macron. It is
a biennial gathering of the leaders of 44 European countries that seeks to provide a platform to discuss strategic matters in a non-
structured framework of dialogue among the 27 EU member states and a further 17 states from the continent that are candidates for
accession or are associated with the EU.
First quarter Election of the president of Armenia by the National Assembly. The term of Vahagn Khachaturyan will come to a close no later
than April 9. This is the date the tenure of the previous holder of the post, Armen Sarkissian, was due to end. Sarkissian resigned in 2022.
A parliamentary republic, Armenia remains in Russia’s orbit, a situation that is proving increasingly problematic for the authorities in
Yerevan given Moscow’s lack of action towards the country’s military defence in the face of attacks by Azerbaijan. One of these attacks
in 2023 forced the surrender of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh in the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
First quarter First European Union-United Kingdom Summit. The Labour government of Keir Starmer champions a new era of bilateral relations
between London and Brussels. Following Brexit in 2020, the United Kingdom’s economic exchange with the 27 EU members takes
place under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which provides a limited area of free trade in goods and services. The British
prime minister is pursuing “constructive” ties with the EU that cover complex issues such as immigration, although he rules out a return
to the free of movement of workers, the customs union and, in short, the single market.
April 13-October 13 Universal exhibition, Osaka. The Japanese city is organising a world’s fair for the third time, after 1970 and 1990. The theme of Expo
2025 is “Designing future society for our lives”.
May 6 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the European Union and the People’s Republic of China.
Beijing and Brussels will celebrate half a century of diplomatic relations at a time defined by tensions over China’s overcapacity, the imposition of
tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles, and China’s role in the war in Ukraine.
May 9 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration. In 1950, the French foreign minister, Robert Schuman, made a proposal to place
France and Germany’s coal and steel production under a single authority. This was the genesis of a web of supranational integration
institutions (ECSC, EEC, Euratom) that decades later would result in what today is the European Union.
May 12 General elections in the Philippines. The deterioration of the relationship between the Marcos and Duterte families, who lead the current
ruling coalition, could trigger a competition between the two main governing parties in an election where more than 18,000 positions in the
Senate, the House of Representatives, and provincial and local governments across the archipelago are up for renewal.
May 19-23 29th World Gas Conference, Beijing. The growing importance of natural gas as an alternative fuel to petroleum products in the
transition to carbon neutrality, its status as a raw material in the production of grey hydrogen and the greater demand for gas as a result
of the war in Ukraine gives the triennial WGC gathering particular importance. The International Gas Union (IGU) has been staging the
event since 1931. In China, production, imports and consumption of gas are increasing constantly.
May 26 End of Luis Almagro’s tenure as OAS secretary general. Uruguay’s Luis Almagro was elected head of the OAS in 2015, and in 2020
he secured re-election for a second and final five-year term. The candidates to succeed him are the Paraguayan foreign minister, Rubén
Ramírez, and his counterpart from Suriname, Albert Ramdin. The vote will take place at the General Assembly, which in June will hold
its 55th regular session in Antigua and Barbuda.
May Presidential elections in Poland. The Civic Platform (PO), a pro-European and liberal conservative party, returned to power in Poland
in 2023 led by Donald Tusk. It is hoping to win this direct ballot and bid farewell to an uncomfortable cohabitation with the head
of state elected in 2015 and re-elected in 2020, Andrzej Duda, from the right-wing party Law and Justice (PiS). The Polish system of
government is a mixed one, where the president wields important powers.
May Pope’s visit to Turkey. The Vatican is planning this papal visit, of a marked ecumenical nature, to commemorate 1,700 years since the
First Council of Nicaea, whose doctrinal legacy is accepted by all the Christian churches. Pope Francis already made an apostolic visit
to Turkey in 2014.
June 9-13 Third UN Ocean Conference, Nice. Three years after the second edition in Lisbon, the UN will stage a new thematic conference in
the city on the French Riviera to support Sustainable Development Goal 14: “Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine
resources”. June 8, the day before the inauguration of the UNOC, marks World Oceans Day.
June 14 End of the EULEX Kosovo mission mandate. Since 2008, the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo has been the largest
civilian mission to be launched under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). EU support for the Kosovar institutions on rule
of law matters is one of the three pillars of the international commitment to peace, security and stability in Kosovo, the others being
UNMIK, the UN interim administration mission, and KFOR, the NATO force.
June 20 World Refugee Day. According to the UN’s specialist agency UNHCR, in 2024 there were 117 million forcibly displaced people in the
world, of whom 43.4 million could be considered refugees; 40% of them were under 18. A total of 69% of refugees and other people in
need of international protection live in countries bordering their countries of origin, and only 25% are hosted by high-income countries.
June 21-29 London Climate Action Week. LCAW, founded in 2009 by the think tank E3G and the Mayor of London, is an annual major get-
together where individuals, communities and organisations swap ideas and propose collaborations to support decarbonisation and
climate resilience. Also taking place within it is the Cites Climate Action Summit (CCAS), organised by the Smart Cities Network.

20 CIDOB notes internacionals 313. DECEMBER 2024

June 24-25 NATO Summit in The Hague. The North Atlantic Council will meet at heads of state and government level with the number of member
states increased to 32 and with the Netherlands’ Mark Rutte as the organisation’s new secretary general. NATO is expected to make significant
decisions regarding Ukraine and Russia, with a question mark over what new US president Donald Trump’s strategic focus will be.
June 25 75th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. The event is being preceded by flaring tension on the Korean Peninsula, which
is seeing out 2024 on a state of alert thanks to an escalation of hawkish action on the part of North Korea (fresh missile launches into the
sea, the blowing up of road and rail links to the border with South Korea, the sending of troops to support Russia in the war in Ukraine)
and, in response, joint manoeuvres by the armed forces of the United States, Japan and South Korea.
June 30-July 3 Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Seville. The discussions of the high representatives of the
nations attending this conference sponsored by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) will focus on the policies
and resources required to fulfil the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs globally. FfD4 Seville will assess the progress made in the implementation
of the Monterrey Consensus (2002), the Doha Declaration (2008) and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda (2015).
June 51st G7 summit, Kananaskis. Canada in 2025 will lead the annual gathering of the seven big powers from the Global North, plus the
European Union. For the Canadian government, some of the priorities to be addressed are the inclusive economy, climate action and
managing emerging technologies. Kananaskis, in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta province, west of Calgary, already played host to the
G7 in 2002.
July 1 Denmark takes over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. The rotating council presidency
“trio” standing between January 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026, will be completed by Poland (as the outgoing holder) and Cyprus (as the
incoming holder in 2026).
July 1 Bulgaria to adopt the euro. Bulgaria is looking to become the 21st eurozone country on this date, once the five convergence criteria
on inflation, deficit, debt, interest rates and monetary stability are met, the latter through participation in the ERM II exchange rate
mechanism. The initially planned date of January 1, 2025, had to be put back after the European Central Bank told Sofia inflation was
still too high.
July 27 Elections for the House of Councillors in Japan. The elections to renew half of the upper house of Japan’s legislative power could reaffirm
the current weakness of the leading party, the Liberal Democratic Party, headed by the unpopular Ishiba Shigeru. Following the snap general
elections of 2024, Japan faces a historic political anomaly: a minority government, which brings uncertainty to the otherwise stable Japanese
politics.
August 1 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act. The signing of this declaration in the Finnish capital by the 35 states participating in the
closing meeting of the third phase of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE, the precursor to the OSCE) marked
a milestone in establishing a model of co-existence among blocs and neutral countries in the detente years, during the first phase of
the cold war. The successor to this instrument was the Paris Charter of 1990.
August 6 Bicentenary of the independence of Bolivia. The Andean country is gearing up for the commemoration in a climate of serious
political upheaval, with outbreaks of violence and hints of civil strife, at the heart of the ruling party Movement for Socialism (MAS),
where there is an escalating feud between the current president of the republic, Luis Arce, and his predecessor in the post, Evo Morales.
With their respective factions behind them, both are seeking to lead the MAS candidacy in the presidential elections of August 17.
Arce’s current five-year term ends in November.
August General elections in Gabon. In August 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema ousted the president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, in a
bloodless military coup. He immediately proceeded to proclaim himself president for a transitional period with a process to adopt a
new constitution that, on paper, should end in August 2025. The transition charter does not expressly bar Oligui Nguema from standing
in future presidential elections. The presumption is that the general will run for the presidency, in which case he is likely to win.
September 8 Legislative elections in Norway. The ballot will be a test of the performance of the coalition government comprising the Labour
Party of Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and the centrists, which won power in 2021. During the term now nearing its end, the Nordic
country has seen its strategic value soar as a hydrocarbons provider to European allies looking to reduce their dependence on Russia.
In late 2024, the polls were worrying for the Labour Party, the most popular choice in every election since 1927, as they were trailing the
Conservatives and even the right-wing Progress Party.
September 15 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action. Signed after the Fourth World Conference on Women held in Beijing
in 1995, the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action represents the most ambitious commitment to gender equality to date, identifying 12
critical areas for action to end inequality. Its commemoration will coincide with the rise of anti-gender movements and the challenges posed by
setbacks and ongoing backlash in gender equality in recent years.
September 27 Federal elections in Australia. This is the date on or before which the ballot to elect new members of the Australian House of
Representatives must be held. The ruling Labor Party of Anthony Albanese, the prime minister since 2022 with a majority in parliament,
will be up against the conservative Liberal-National coalition, headed by the Liberal’s Peter Dutton.
September 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly gathering that brings together all the world’s leaders to assess the
current state of their national policies and how they see the world. The regular session will begin on September 9 and the high-level
general debate will start on September 23.
September End of the first phase of the conclusion of United States military operations in Iraq. That is the timeline put forward by the
Department of Defense to move to the “second phase” of the “transition plan” that began in September 2024 for the Combined Joint
Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) the military operation to combat Islamic State in Iraq and Syria since 2014. The United
States ended combat operations in Iraq in 2021 but left behind a contingent of soldiers on logistics and training missions.
September Artemis II mission to the Moon. Barring technical difficulties causing further delays, NASA will carry out the second launch – the first
crewed mission – of the Artemis space programme around this time. The plan is for the Orion spacecraft, propelled by the SLS rocket,
to leave the Earth’s orbit, perform a flyby of the Moon and return to Earth in ten days. If all goes well, the following mission, Artemis III,
also crewed by four astronauts, will mark the first time humans have set foot on the Moon since the lunar landing by Apollo 17 in 1972.
October 6 World Habitat Day. The UN General Assembly established this day of global observance in 1985. Previously, in 1977, the UN had
created its Human Settlements Programme to promote socially and environmentally sustainable towns and cities. UN-Habitat held its
third international conference (Habitat III) in Quito in 2016 and the next edition (Habitat IV) is scheduled for 2036. Looking ahead to
World Habitat Day 2025, the agency is calling for reflection on how to tackle the sustainability crises affecting urban areas.
October 17-19 Annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group, Washington. Preceded by the “spring meetings”, the main international
organisations providing credit assistance to states will bring together their boards of governors and their advisory bodies, the
Development Committee and the International Monetary and Financial Committee, in Washington, the corporate headquarters of
both bodies. Bulgaria’s Kristalina Georgieva has been in charge of the IMF since 2019 and the Indian-born American Ajay Banga has
been the president of the World Bank since 2023.

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 October 20 Federal elections in Canada. The Liberal Party prime minister, Justin Trudeau, faces elections to the House of Commons with
personal popularity ratings in free fall after a period in power stretching back to 2015. The centre-left leaning Liberals have run
a minority government since 2019 and, after three straight victories, they are seeing how Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have a
commanding lead over them in the polls. Once hugely popular, a string of controversies and missteps have caused the progressive
Trudeau’s star to fade.
October 26 Legislative elections in Argentina. The South American country will elect a third of its senators (24) and half of the national
deputies (127). A new feature in these elections will be that voters will mark their preferences on a single ballot paper. As a prior
step, the “simultaneous and mandatory open primaries” (known by the Spanish acronym PASO), called for August 3, will be crucial.
The government of President Javier Milei, however, wants to abolish them. In the 2023 legislative elections, Milei’s La Libertad
Avanza (“Liberty Advances”) coalition debuted with 35 deputies, 23 fewer than the Peronist Unión por la Patria (“Union for the
Homeland”).
October 31 25th anniversary of UN Resolution on Women, Peace and Security. United Nations Security Council Resolution adopted resolution
(S/RES/1325) on women and peace and security on 31 October 2000 to reaffirm the important role of women in the prevention and
resolution of conflicts, peace negotiations, peace-building, peacekeeping, humanitarian response and in post-conflict reconstruction.
The resolution stresses the importance of their equal participation and full involvement in all efforts for the maintenance and promotion
of peace and security.
October Presidential elections in Côte d’Ivoire. The French-speaking country that carries most economic weight in sub-Saharan Africa goes
into these elections in a climate of relative calm, compared to the violent upheavals of 1999-2011. The president, Alassane Ouattara,
was elected in 2010, re-elected in 2015 and secured a third term in 2020, amid huge opposition protest. In late 2024, it was not known
whether Ouattara, in a fresh – and dangerous – self-serving interpretation of the country’s constitution, would stand for a fourth time.
The controversial former president and opposition leader, Laurent Gbagbo had confirmed he would run.
October Legislative elections in the Czech Republic. ANO, the populist right-wing party of Andrej Babiš, was dislodged from the government
in 2021 by a five-member liberal conservative coalition headed by the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of Petr Fiala. The polls are predicting
a resounding victory for Babiš, though falling short of an absolute majority. The businessmen turned politician under the shadow of
corruption is tipped to secure a return as prime minister with a nationalist, Eurosceptic rhetoric that is hostile to military assistance for
Ukraine.
October Presidential elections in Cameroon. Paul Biya, now in his nineties and the president of the republic since 1982 (he is the fourth
longest serving head of state in the world, behind Equatorial Guinea’s Obiang, the King of Sweden and the Sultan of Brunei) will run for
the post for the eighth straight time. A 2008 amendment to the country’s constitution abolished the limit on the number of seven-year
terms a president can serve. The conservative and Francophile ruling party the RDPC, has closed ranks behind the elderly and ailing
Biya, a de facto dictator at the head of an authoritarian regime that tolerates pluralism but not true electoral competition.
October General elections in Tanzania. Marked by increased political violence against the opposition during the 2024 local elections, these elections
will test current President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s commitment to democratic reforms or, instead, it will evidence a return of the African country
to authoritarianism.
October or November 47th ASEAN Summit, Malaysia. This dynamic bloc of ten Southeast Asian countries, which operates its own free trade area and
another, the RCEP, with its regional partners, holds summits twice a year, the autumn summit being the most important on account of
the profusion of parallel meetings it hosts. Also taking place at the 2025 edition, then, is the 20th East Asia Summit, the 28th ASEAN+3
Summit and bilateral summits with China (28th edition), Japan (28th), South Korea (26th), India (22nd), the United States (13th) and Australia
(5th), as well as one with the UN (15th).
November 6 50th anniversary of the start of the Green March. The Moroccan occupation of parts of the Sahara through the march of 360,000 volunteers
on foot, along with the Sahrawi people’s refusal to abandon their right to self-determination, initiated the still-unresolved Western Sahara conflict.
In recent years, Spain and France have shifted their stance from supporting a referendum in the territory to expressing interest in Rabat’s autonomy
plan as a solution.
November 10-21 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference, Belém. Brazil will host three parallel meetings (COP30, CMP20 and CMA7) of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, as scientific alerts and extreme climate events mount up on account of
global warming. In tune with the general sensation of emergency and to demonstrate its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, the government of Lula da Silva has chosen as venue for the event the capital of a state, Pará, that takes in the heart of the
Amazon rainforest.
November 16 General elections in Chile. In Chile, the sitting president is not eligible to run for an immediate second term, which means that
Gabriel Boric, who was elected in 2021 (and whose record in office has led to low approval ratings), will make way for another candidate
from Alianza de Gobierno (“Government Alliance”) the centre-left coalition in power and successor to Apruebo Dignidad (“Approve
Dignity”). A year before the elections, neither the left nor the opposition centre-right or right had clearly defined figures to champion
the various sectors.
November 27 and 28 20th G20 summit, Johannesburg. The South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, the target of criticism at home on account of a
relentless decline in electoral support and rifts within his party, the ANC, has pinned considerable hopes on the outcome of the 20th
meeting of the most renowned and influential world leaders forum, which will be held in an African country for the first time.
November 30 General elections in Honduras. The vote will decide the successor to the president, Xiomara Castro, from the left-wing Libre (Liberty
and Refoundation) party. Under the country’s constitution, Castro is not eligible to seek a second term after the one that began on
January 27, 2022.
November Second World Summit on Social Development, Qatar. A second summit, following the one held in Copenhagen in 1995, devoted
to just and sustainable social development across the globe. WSSD2, convened by the UN General Assembly, will analyse shortcomings
in the application of the Copenhagen Declaration and – say the organisers – should reinvigorate the programme of action for fulfilling
the 2030 Agenda. Other directly related instruments are the FfD4, which is to take place in Seville in the summer, and the Summit of
the Future, held in New York 2024.
November 32nd APEC summit, Gyeongju. The South Korean coastal city will play host to the heads of state and government of the world’s
biggest regional economic cooperation and trade group (ahead of the EU/EEA, the RCEP, the TPP and ASEAN), comprising 21 Pacific
basin countries including China, the United States, Russia and Japan, as well as 12 of the 25 biggest economies by GDP. The APEC has
not managed to form a free trade zone, but its leaders’ summits have a deeply political and diplomatic aspect.
December 1 Centenary of the Locarno Treaties. The signing in 1925 of seven international agreements negotiated among Germany, France, the
United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Belgium and Czechoslovakia following a conference held in the Swiss city laid the foundations of a new
order of peace, security and inviolability of the borders of Europe in the wake of the First World War. What was often referred to as “the
spirit of Locarno” allowed Weimar Germany’s entry into the League of Nations, but the advent of Nazism dashed those hopes.

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First week of December 10th Summit of the Americas, Punta Cana. Since 1994, the Summit of the Americas has provided the format for the institutionalised
political gatherings of the heads of the continent’s 35 sovereign states, two of which are not included in the OAS. It takes place roughly
once every three years. In 2022, President Biden did not invite the leaders of Cuba, Nicaragua or Venezuela to the summit in Los Angeles
as he considered their regimes were dictatorships, a decision that sparked controversy among the other Latin American delegations.
The Dominican government is focusing on making the 2025 gathering an “inclusive” event and is looking to avoid controversy.
December 14 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement. The accords signed at the U.S. military base in Dayton brought an end to the Bosnian War,
with tragic episodes such as the Srebrenica genocide. In a peace negotiation that overlooked gender issues, Dayton condemned Bosnian women
to be survivors of war and victims of peace by failing to address sexual violence as a weapon of war, leaving wounds that remain unhealed.
Pending Ninth CELAC summit and fourth CELAC-EU summit, Colombia. As holder of the presidency pro tempore, the South American
country will be in charge of the annual gathering of the heads of state and government of the Community of Latin American and
Caribbean States, where 33 sovereign nations of the continent discuss their integration without the presence of the United States or
Canada. The bi-regional CELAC-EU summit will seek a common agenda on cooperation and investment, providing a more multilateral
context to the association or free trade agreements between the EU and several of America’s countries and subregional blocs.
Pending 17th BRICS summit, Brazil. The intergovernmental association formed in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India and China is expanding rapidly,
and in 2025 it will stage its 17th summit in the first of those founding countries. The leaders of the nine member states will attend, as
well as those of associated countries and the candidates to join, gathered as BRICS+. The drivers of the forum frame their activities in
the contest with the Western powers to achieve a multipolar world order that includes the Global South.
Pending 25th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, China. The founding superpower will once again orchestrate the annual
gathering of leaders from the SCO, which – alongside the Belt and Road Initiative – is the chief instrument of the People’s Republic of
China to extend its geopolitical and geo-economic influence in Eurasia on the intergovernmental plane, hand in hand with Russia, its
strategic partner. The Heads of State Council of the ten member states will be joined by the leaders of observer and associate countries,
under the SCO+ format.
Pending Sixth Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summit, New Delhi. India for the first time will host a leaders’ summit of the Quad,
the discussion forum in which the Asian power engages with the United States, Japan and Australia on both diplomatic and security
matters of interest, with an eye on China. The Quad dialogue takes place in conjunction with the Malabar joint air and naval military
exercise conducted every year in waters of the Indian or Pacific Oceans.
Pending 34th Arab League summit, Baghdad. Iraq will host the annual meeting of Arab League leaders. Apart from the armed and territorial
conflicts tearing several of its members apart (Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Libya, Somalia), the organisation is proving incapable of having a
positive influence on ending the wars Israel has been waging against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon since 2023. In addition,
its stance on Iran is far from unanimous.
Pending 17th summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization, Baku. Azerbaijan, one of the countries gaining most strategic advantage
from the war in Ukraine, will host the gathering of presidents of this organisation of ten Eurasian governments that includes Turkey, Iran
and the whole of Central Asia, but not Russia or China. The oil-exporting Transcaucasian country already staged COP29 in 2024 and in
2025 it will also be the venue for a summit of the Organization of Turkic States.
Pending Bulgaria to join the OECD. In 2022, the OECD began talks for the entry of six countries: Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia, Peru and
Romania. In 2024, they were joined by Thailand and Indonesia. Of them all, the country to have made most progress towards joining
the club of developed market-based economies committed to democracy appears to be Bulgaria, which is hoping to become the 39th
member state at the end of 2025.
Pending Norway to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. The government in Oslo has set out to ensure that as of 2025 all new cars will
have zero carbon emissions, i.e. they will be electric or they will run on hydrogen. The ban by Norway – a major hydrocarbons producer
– is a decade ahead of the goal mapped out by the EU. As for overall climate neutrality, it aims to achieve it by 2030, 20 years before the
EU. Norway generates much more energy than it consumes and is committed to clean energies like green hydrogen.

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