EHCOA2A – COMPUTING APPLICATIONS 2

[28 September 2023]

Basic Probability notes 2.

Basic Rules of Combining Probabilities

1. Addition Rule
This can be broken into two categories depending on whether the events being combined
overlap.
1.1 Mutually exclusive events
Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot happen simultaneously. For instance, getting
heads and tails on a coin toss is mutually exclusive, because both outcomes (heads and tails)
cannot take place on the same toss.
The addition rule for probability of two mutually exclusive events corresponds to a logical or
and is calculated by adding the probabilities of each individual event.
Quick Explanation and example
If two events are mutually exclusive, they cannot occur simultaneously. Therefore, to
determine the probability of one event or the other event occurring, we simply add the
probabilities of each individual event happening. It gives a sum of separate probabilities.
Suppose we have a bag containing 15 marbles, 6 of them red,4 blue and the other 5 yellow .
We need to calculate the probability of picking either a red or a blue marble.
Drawing a red or blue marble are mutually exclusive events, because we can't draw both a
red marble and a blue marble with one draw.
Based on the classical approach to probability, the chances of drawing a red marble from a
selection of 15 marbles is 6 out of 15. Similarly, the chance of drawing a blue marble is 4 out
of 15 and yellow is 5 out of 15.
Thus, the probability of drawing a red marble or a blue marble is 6/15 + 4/15 = 10/15 = 0.666
(Note: answers should be rounded to 3 decimal places)
Here is another example :

If I roll a fair six-sided die, each face has an equal chance of appearing, or a probability of one-
sixth(1/6).
Let event A be the event of rolling a 1, and event B be the event of rolling a 6, then Pr[1] = 1/6,
Pr[6] = 1/6 . Events A and B are mutually exclusive(cannot happen simultaneously) because
we can't roll a 1 and a 6 on the same die roll.

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So, the probability of event A or event B happening is 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3.
Complement rule
Often possible outcomes for mutual exclusive events are divided into two groups. If one group
of outcomes is event A, the other group is called the complement of A and is written A or A′.
The complement of an event is the set of all outcomes that are not the event.
Since all possible outcomes must either be the event or its complement, the sum of the
probabilities of the event and its complement (Pr[A] and Pr[A’] ) must be equal to 1.
Imagine having a bag of marbles containing both red and blue ones. If you separate the
marbles into two groups, one consisting of red marbles and the other of only blue marbles,
these two groups will be complementary to each other.
The probability of picking a red marble is equal to the probability of not picking a blue marble,
as they are complementary events. Thus, if the probability of picking a red marble is Pr[R],
then the probability the probability of picking a blue marble is 1- Pr[R]
Example
A sample of four electronic components is taken from the output of a production line. The
probabilities of the various outcomes are calculated to be Pr [0 defectives] = 0.6561, Pr [1
defective] = 0.2916, Pr [2 defectives] = 0.0486, Pr [3 defectives] = 0.0036, Pr [4 defectives] =
0.0001. What is the probability of at least one defective?
Answer
Using the addition rule
We can calculate the probability of at least one defective item by summing up the probabilities
of all possible outcomes with at least one defective item. These outcomes include 1, 2, 3, or
4 defectives.
Pr [at least one defective] = Pr [1 defective] + Pr [2 defectives] + Pr [3 defectives] + Pr [4
defectives] = 0.2916 + 0.0486 + 0.0036 + 0.0001 = 0.3439.
This can be easier calculated using the complement rule instead:
The complement of the event "at least one defective" is the event "no defectives".
Pr [at least one defective] = 1 – Pr [0 defectives] = 1 – 0.6561 = 0.3439 or 0.344.
Which method should be used
When dealing with a large number of possible outcomes, it is often simpler to use the
complement rule rather than the addition rule. This is because the complement rule only
requires you to calculate the probability of a single outcome, which is the opposite of the event
you are interested in. In contrast, the addition rule requires you to calculate the probabilities
of all possible outcomes where the event you are interested in occurs. This can be a
challenging and time-consuming task, especially when there are numerous possible
outcomes.
1.2 Non-mutually exclusive events
Non-mutually exclusive events are events that overlap between them. For instance, getting a
red card and a face card from a deck of cards is non-mutually exclusive because you can get
a red face card.

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The probability of two non-mutually exclusive events happening is the sum of the probabilities
of each event happening individually, minus the probability of both events happening at the
same time.
This can be visualized using a Venn diagram:

The circle marked A represents the probability of event A happening. The circle marked B
represents the probability of event B happening. The overlap between the two circles
represents the probability of both events happening at the same time. The rectangle around
the circles represents the set of all possible outcomes for a particular experiment, it’s called
the sample space. An event is any subset of the sample space. To calculate the probability of
an event using a Venn diagram, we must first identify the appropriate sample space. In other
words, we must be clear about the relevant sample space and the total group of events we
are considering. After identifying the sample space, we can use a Venn diagram to shade in
the areas corresponding to the events of our interest. Determining the probability of an event
involves finding the proportion of the sample space that the event occupies. To do this, we
divide the number of outcomes in the event by the total number of outcomes in the sample
space.
For example, suppose we have a bag of marbles as in the previous example, and some of the
marbles are red, blue, and yellow. We want to figure out the probability of drawing a red marble
The sample space in this case is the set of all possible outcomes of drawing a marble from
the bag. This set has three outcomes: red, blue, and yellow, with 6, 4, and 5 marbles,
respectively.
The event we are interested in is drawing a red marble. This event has a probability of 6/15
since it occupies 6 of the 15 outcomes in the sample space.
Intersection, union, and complement
In the Figure below , Venn diagrams are used to illustrate the concepts of intersection, union,
and complement. The region shaded with diagonal lines in Figure (a) represents event A. In
Figure (b), the cross-hatched region symbolizes the overlap between events A and B. The
combination of events A and B is depicted in part (c) of the diagram. Lastly, in part (d), the
cross-hatched area represents the complement of event A.

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Take note of the following set notation:
Pr [A ∪ B]= Pr [occurrence of A or B or both], the union of the two events A and B.
Pr [A ∩ B] = Pr [occurrence of both A and B], the intersection of events A and B.
If two events are not mutually exclusive, they may overlap. In this case, the Addition Rule
becomes:
Pr [A ∪ B) = Pr [A] + Pr [B] – Pr [A ∩ B]
This means to calculate the probability of A or B or both, add the probabilities of A and B, then
subtract the probability of their overlap. The overlap is the shared area between A and B.
Example
If one card is drawn from a well-shuffled bridge deck of 52 playing cards (13 of each suit),
what is the probability that the card is a queen or a heart? Notice that a card can be both a
queen and a heart. Then a queen of hearts (or queen ∩ heart) overlaps the two categories.
Answer
Pr [queen] = 4/52.
Pr [heart] = 13/52.
Pr [queen ∩ heart] = 1/52.

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These quantities are shown on the Venn diagram below

Then Pr [queen ∪ heart] = Pr [queen] + Pr [heart] – Pr [queen ∩ heart]

= (4/52) + (13/52) –(1/52) = 16/52
The simple addition law and Venn diagrams can be used to solve problems involving three
events with both single and double overlaps. This usually requires us to apply the addition law
several times. One approach is to find the frequency or probability of each simple area on the
Venn diagram, which represents either a part of only one event without overlap (A ∩B ̅ ∩A ̅ ) or
a clearly defined overlap (such as A ∩ B ∩ C̅ ).
Example
The class registrations of 120 students are analysed. It is found that: 30 of the students do not
take any of Applied Mechanics, Chemistry, or Computers. 15 of them take only Applied
Mechanics. 25 of them take Chemistry and Computers but not Applied Mechanics. 20 of them
take Applied Mechanics and Computers but not Chemistry. 10 of them take all three of Applied
Mechanics, Chemistry, and Computers. A total of 45 of them take Chemistry. 5 of them take
only Chemistry.
a) How many of the students take Applied Mechanics and Chemistry but not Computers?
b) How many of the students take only Computers?
c) What is the total number of students taking Computers?
d) If a student is chosen at random from those who take neither Chemistry nor Computers,
what is the probability that he or she does not take Applied Mechanics either?
e) If one of the students who take at least two of the three courses is chosen at random, what
is the probability that he or she takes all three courses?
Answer
Step 1: Draw a Venn diagram
We can represent the three courses(events) students take (Applied Mechanics, Chemistry,
and Computers) using a Venn diagram.
Let’s abbreviate the courses as AM, Chem, and Comp .
Step 2: Label the Venn diagram
We can label the Venn diagram with the following: AM for Applied Mechanics, Chem for
Chemistry, and Comp for Computers.

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Step 3: Fill in the Venn diagram
The information provided is as follows: 30 students do not take any of the three courses. 15
students take only Applied Mechanics. 25 students take Chemistry and Computers but not
Applied Mechanics. 20 students take Applied Mechanics and Computers but not Chemistry.
10 students take all three courses. In total, 45 students take Chemistry, and 5 students take
only Chemistry. Based on this information, we can fill in the Venn diagram accordingly.

The total number of items under consideration, known as the sample space, is usually
indicated above the upper right-hand corner of the rectangle. In this case, it is 120.
Step 4: Answer the questions
a) How many of the students take Applied Mechanics and Chemistry but not
Computers?
On the Venn diagram, the value of x represents the number of students who take Applied
Mechanics and Chemistry but not Computers (AM ∩ Chem ∩ Comp ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅). Given that 45 students
take Chemistry, we can determine that x + 10 + 25 + 5 = 45.
Then x = 5
b) How many of the students take only Computers?
Total number of students and the number who do not take any of the three courses we have
n(AM ∪ Chem ∪ Comp) = 120 – 30 = 90
Using the Venn diagram and our knowledge of the total number of students taking Chemistry,
we can determine that the number of students taking all three courses is equal to the sum of
students taking Chemistry, students taking AM only, students taking both AM and Comp, and
students taking Comp only (y). This is represented as

n(AM∪ Chem∪ Comp) = n(Chem) + n(AM∩ ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ Comp) +n(AM∩ ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅

Chem ∩ ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ Chem ∩ Comp) +n(AM ∩
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ∩ Comp
Chem ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) = 45 + 15 + 20 + y = 80 + y

Then y = 90 – 80 = 10.

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c) What is the total number of students taking Computers?
The total number of students taking Computers is 10 + 20 + 10 + 25 = 65
d) If a student is chosen at random from those who take neither Chemistry nor
Computers, what is the probability that he or she does not take Applied Mechanics
either?
To determine the number of students who take neither Chemistry nor Computers we must first
identify the relevant population. This would include 30 students do not take any and 15
students only take Applied Mechanics . 30 + 15 = 45
Out of these 45 students, 30 do not take Applied Mechanics either. Therefore, the probability
of a student not taking Applied Mechanics if they do not take Chemistry nor Computers is 2/3
(30/45).
e) If one of the students who take at least two of the three courses is chosen at random,
what is the probability that he or she takes all three courses?
The Venn diagram shows the group of students who take two or more courses. This group is
represented by the intersection of all three courses and two of the three courses. Which gives
n(AM ∩ Chem ∩ Comp ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ∩ Comp) + n(AM
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) + n(AM ∩ Chem ̅̅̅̅̅ ∩ Chem ∩ Comp) + n(AM ∩ Chem
∩ Comp)
= 5 + 20 + 25 + 10 = 60.
Out of these students, 10 take all three courses. If a student who takes at least two courses is
randomly selected, the probability that they also take all three courses is 10/60 = 1/6.

2. Multiplication Rule
2.1 basic rule to calculate number of choices
To calculate the number of choices(outcomes), one can use the following approach: Suppose
there are n1 possible outcomes from one operation. For each of these outcomes, there are
n2 possible outcomes from a second operation. As a result, there are (n1 × n2) possible
outcomes of the two operations combined. In general, the number of possible outcomes is
determined by multiplying the number of choices at each step.
Example
An engineer is conducting an experiment to determine the effect of two different catalysts on
the yield of a certain chemical. The engineer knows that each catalyst can either increase or
decrease the yield, and each catalyst has a 50% chance of doing so. What’s the total number
of possible outcomes ?
answer
The total number of possible outcomes for two catalysts with two possible outcomes each is
equal to the product of the number of possible outcomes for each catalyst. In this case, the
product is 2 * 2 = 4.

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 The operations can be represented through a tree diagram.

Outcome
Pr [i]=1/2
increase yield increase yield and increase yield

increase yield
Pr [i]=1/2

decrease yield increase yield and decrease yield

Pr [d]=1/2

Pr [d]=1/2 Pr [i]=1/2 increase yield decrease yield and increase

decrease yield
yield

Figure: simple tree Pr [d]=1/2 decrease yield decrease

and yield
increase and decrease yield
yield
diagram

and increase yield

2.1 Multiplication Rule for probabilities

1. Independent events
When events are independent, the probability of one event(outcome) occurring does not
impact the probability of another event(outcome) occurring. This means that the likelihood of
multiple events occurring together is the product of their individual probabilities. This aligns
with the basic idea of counting outcomes stated above. If A and B are two independent events,
the probability of both A and B occurring together is calculated as: Pr [A ∩ B]
= Pr [A] × Pr [B]. Note that the intersection operator "and" represents events that happen
together.
Let's consider the above example. The probability of each outcome is determined by
multiplying the probabilities of the two branches that lead to it. For instance, if we want to find
the probability of obtaining an increase in yield twice, the probability would be (1/2) * (1/2) =
1/4, as each branch has a probability of 1/2.
Example
If a player throws two fair dice, the probability of a double one (one on the first die and one on
the second die) is (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36. These events are independent because the result from
one die has no effect at all on the result from the other die. (Note that “die” is the singular word,
and “dice” is plural.)
2. Events that are not independent (conditional probability)
If events are not independent, the occurrence of one event affects the probability of the other
event. In such cases, we need to use conditional probability. We can denote the conditional
probability of event B given that event A has occurred as Pr [B | A]. This means the probability
of event B happening, given that event A has occurred. To calculate conditional probability, we
only consider events that fulfil the condition, which in this case is the occurrence of event A.
Among these events, the probability of event B occurring is given by the conditional probability
Pr [B | A].

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The multiplication rule for the occurrence of both A and B together when they are not
independent is the product of the probability of one event and the conditional probability of the
other: Pr [A ∩ B] = Pr [A] × Pr [B | A] = Pr [B] × Pr [A | B]
Pr [B | A] = Pr [A ∩ B]/ Pr [A]
Or
Pr [A | B] = Pr [A ∩ B]/ Pr [B]
Example
Four of the light bulbs in a box of ten bulbs are burnt out or otherwise defective. If two bulbs
are selected at random without replacement and tested, (i) what is the probability that exactly
one defective bulb is found? (ii) What is the probability that exactly two defective bulbs are
found?
answer
When dealing with problems related to the multiplication rule, a tree diagram can be highly
beneficial. To make things simpler, we can represent a defective first bulb as D1, a defective
second bulb as D2, a good first bulb as G1, and a good second bulb as G2.
In the beginning, the box has four defective bulbs out of a total of ten, represented by Pr [D1]
= 4/10. The remaining six bulbs are good. The probability of the first bulb being defective is
4/10, while the probability of it being good is 6/10. This information is depicted in the partial
tree diagram below.

Pr [D1]=4/10 D1

Pr [G1]=6/10 G1

Figure: First bulb

Conditional probabilities determine the likelihood of the second bulb's outcome based on the
result of the first bulb. These relations for the second bulb are shown in the figures below

Pr [D2|D1]=3/9 D2

Pr [G2|D1]=6/9
G2

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 Pr [D2|G1]=4/9 D2

Pr [G2|G1]=5/9
G2

Figure: Second bulb

If the first bulb in the box was defective, then there will be three defective bulbs and six good
ones left, leading to a conditional probability of 3/9 for obtaining a defective bulb and 6/9 good
bulb on the second draw.
If the first bulb was good, there will be four defective bulbs and five good ones remaining in
the box. Consequently, the conditional probability of drawing a defective bulb on the second
attempt is 4/9 and the conditional probability of obtaining a good bulb is 5/9.
These arguments are only valid when bulbs are selected "without replacement". If bulbs are
replaced and mixed before another is chosen, probabilities will differ.
Combining probabilities
▪ The probability of getting two defective bulbs must be (4/10) * (3/9)= 12/90
▪ The probability of getting a defective bulb on the first draw and a good bulb on the
second draw is (4/10) * (6/9)= 24/90
▪ The probability of getting a good bulb on the first draw and a defective bulb on the
second draw is (6/10) * (4/9)= 24/90
▪ the probability of getting two good bulbs is (6/10) * (5/9)= 30/90
in symbols, we have the following representation :
▪ Pr [D1 ∩ D2] = Pr [D1] × Pr [D2|D1]= (4/10) * (3/9)= 12/90
▪ Pr [D1 ∩ G2] = Pr [D1] × Pr [G2|D1] = (4/10) * (6/9)= 24/90
▪ Pr [G1 ∩ D2] = Pr [G1] × Pr [D2|G1] = (6/10) * (4/9)= 24/90
▪ Pr [G1 ∩ G2] = Pr [G1] × Pr [G2|G1] = (6/10) * (5/9)= 30/90

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The complete tree diagram is shown is the figure below

Event/Outcome Probability
2 defective bulbs 12/90

1 good,1 defective 24/90

1 good,1 defective 24/90

2 good bulbs 30/90

Figure: Complete Tree Diagram

Please note that the probabilities of all events should always add up to one:
12+24+24+30
=1
90

Answering the specific questions

i)
The tree diagram shows 2 outcomes where at least one bulb is defective. Thus,
Pr [exactly one defective bulb is found] = Pr [D1 ∩ G2] + Pr [G1 ∩ D2
= 24/90 + 24/90 = 48/90 = 0.533
The first term represents the scenario of initially obtaining a defective bulb followed by a good
bulb, while the second term represents the scenario of initially obtaining a good bulb followed
by a defective one.
ii)
The probability of finding exactly two defective bulbs Pr [exactly two defective bulbs are found]
, denoted Pr [D1 ∩ D2]
=12/90= 0.133. There is only one way to achieve this outcome

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