GEP Outlook 2025
GEP Outlook 2025
REPORT
2025
PROCUREMENT &
SUPPLY CHAIN
03 Introduction
04 Executive Summary
Operating Model
Regulatory Landscape
33 Conclusion
34 Notes
Introduction
No rest for the weary. After recently adapting to the post-pandemic reality, organizations
now face a complex landscape of technological, geopolitical and regulatory changes that are
reshaping procurement and supply chains dramatically. The year 2025 looms large as a pivotal
moment: Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to revolutionize operational models, propelling
companies toward new efficiencies and restructuring how procurement integrates with broader
business strategies. Against this backdrop, trade tensions persist, with localization and
sustainability now vying against traditional globalization.
Procurement and supply chain leaders are confronted with profound questions: Will AI transform
procurement into a self-directed powerhouse? Can companies balance resilience with cost-
effectiveness amid geopolitical uncertainties?
This report unpacks six transformative trends that will shape procurement and supply chains,
offering both challenges and boundless potential for companies to reinvent themselves as
adaptable, future-ready organizations — in the context of the macroeconomic outlook for the
year ahead.
Having recently celebrated our 25th anniversary, GEP is a close partner to many leading
procurement and supply chain leadership teams for Fortune 500 and Global 2000 businesses.
Our firm of accomplished consultants and technology advisors offers valuable perspectives to
help business leaders strategize for 2025.
The GEP Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain report covers the key topics and
priorities that will dominate the corporate agenda in the year ahead.
Executive Summary
As organizations navigate diverse macroeconomic landscapes, rapid advancements in AI,
dynamic market conditions, trade wars and geopolitical conflicts, they must adapt their
strategies and practices to stay competitive. Understanding these trends and their influence
on procurement and supply chains is crucial for leaders to make informed decisions, drive
innovation and enhance operational resilience — ultimately positioning their companies for
success in the year ahead.
GEP’s 2025 outlook report identifies six major trends in procurement and supply chain
management, each of which pose profound challenges and opportunities for leadership
teams.
AI and the Next Evolution of Procurement: As AI matures, procurement will see seismic
shifts, with AI moving from task automation to autonomous decision-making. In its early
phase, AI co-pilots will handle repetitive tasks, allowing teams to focus on strategy. As
organizations advance along the maturity curve, AI will manage workflows independently,
reshaping procurement into a digital-first function that prioritizes agility and strategic
foresight.
Inflation
Returning to Recent Historical Norms
Global inflation is projected to fall from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and further to 4.3% by 2025 after
peaking at 9.4% in the third quarter of 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).1
In 2024, inflation in the U.S. is expected to reach 3%, down from 8% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023. Inflation
in the U.K. dropped to 1.7% in September 2024, which is lower than the Bank of England’s target of 2%.2
In 2024, inflation in the U.K. is expected to touch 2.6%. The Euro Area has seen a similar downward trend,
with inflation at 1.7% in September 2024; for 2024, inflation is estimated at 2.4%.3
While global inflation is reasonably under control, there are still unmitigated risks due to unresolved
geopolitical conflicts, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sustained conflict in the Middle East,
trade wars brewing among China and G7 economies and rising food prices in emerging economies.
Latin America and the Caribbean 14.2 14.8 16.8 8.5 5.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 15.2 17.6 18.1 12.3 8.4
4% 4.0%
3.4%
3% 3.1%
2.8% 2.7% 2.5%
2.4%
2% 2.2%
1.7%
1.7%
1%
0.4%
0%
-1% -0.8%
-2%
Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Conflicts and Increasing Food Prices Shifts in Governments Interest Rates Oil Price Volatility
Trade Wars Higher inflation can be and Policies Interest rate cuts by Expect cost increases if
Watch for heightened triggered by rising food Be alert to potential central banks of major oil and energy prices rise
supply and price prices, because of economic shifts and economies can create due to production cuts,
pressures driven by increasing agricultural evolving trade dynamics cost pressures by conflicts or market shifts
geopolitical instability, production costs, as leadership transitions stimulating economic
including conflicts in the heightened demand and and policy changes activity and demand
Middle East, Russia’s extreme weather events unfold in major
invasion of Ukraine and economies
ongoing trade tensions
GDP
Stable but Tepid Growth
Global growth is expected to remain at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, according to the IMF forecast in the
October 2024 edition of its World Economic Outlook.4
The U.S. economy is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, then drop further to 2.2% in
2025. The U.K. is expected to perform somewhat better at 1.1% in 2024, up from 0.3% in 2023, and 1.5%
in 2025 (higher than the IMF’s July forecast of 0.7%) due to falling inflation and a likely easing of monetary
policy.5 The Euro Area is also expected to recover in 2024 with GDP growth projected at 0.8%, up from
0.4% in 2023. In 2025, the region’s economic growth is expected to reach 1.2%.
Emerging economies in Asia will grow slower in comparison to 2023, impacted by a slowdown in China,
which is expected to grow at 4.8% in 2024. This is down from 5.2% in 2023, mainly due to weaker property
prices and low consumer confidence.6 Growth in the world’s second-largest economy is expected to slow
to 4.5% in 2025. China has been introducing stimulus measures, including mortgage rate cuts for existing
homes and increased bank lending, to stimulate the economy. India is expected to grow at 7% in 2024 and
6.5% in 2025, a drop from 8.3% in 2023.
Interest Rates
From Inflation Mitigation to Growth
Central banks are shifting their focus to stimulating demand as inflation stabilizes. The central banks of the
U.S., U.K., the Euro Area and China started cutting interest rates in 2024 as inflation approached target
levels. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years in September 2024, a trend
likely to continue into 2025 as the government seeks to ease economic pressures and reignite growth.7
The U.K. cut its interest rate to 5% in August 2024, its first since the pandemic, and once again in
November to 4.75%.8 The European Central Bank cut its rates to 3.25% in October 2024.9
The People’s Bank of China lowered its policy interest rate to 3.1% and five-year loan prime rate to 3.6%
in October 2024.10 These reductions aim to catalyze the real estate and credit markets. India, like many
emerging economies, has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% for 2024 and is adopting a
cautious approach to prevent a resurgence of inflation.11
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
U.S. Canada U.K. Euro Area China India Australia
Sep 23 Sep 24
Source: OECD, Trading Economics
0
2022 2023 2024 2025
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
Employment
Broadly Stable
For many G7 economies, unemployment is near multi-decade lows. While these job markets are stable,
there are signs of softening. The global labor market is undergoing significant shifts as automation and AI
transform industries. In 2025, as more industries adopt AI technologies, concerns over job losses and the
need for new skillsets will emerge.
The U.S. and U.K. observed higher unemployment rates in October 2024 than at the start of the year.
Data published by the U.S. Labor Department in October 2024 shows that the total number of Americans
collecting jobless benefits rose by 39,000 to 1.89 million for the week of October 26, 2024 — the most
since 2021.12 This rising level of continuing claims suggests that many workers are finding it difficult to re-
enter the workforce. The unemployment rate in the U.K. is estimated to be higher in 2024 than previous
years (3.9% in 2022 and 4% in 2023) and is expected to settle at 4.3% by end of 2024.13
China’s job market remained stable in the first three quarters of 2024, supported by government employment
efforts. Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that the urban unemployment rate averaged
5.1% in the first three quarters, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the same period last year.14 In India,
the labor market remained positive with unemployment rates at 7.8% in September 2024, down from 8% in
2023, as per data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.15
Global Economic Growth Geopolitical Conflicts Trade Tensions and AI and Automation
Look out for uneven growth Continuing conflicts in the Localization The adoption of AI and
softening the job market, Middle East could disrupt Growing trade tensions and automation will increase
particularly as advanced the commodity, freight and strategies such as reshoring demand for tech jobs and
economies in Europe and manufacturing sectors, and nearshoring can impact require skill development,
China are projected to see potentially destabilizing the manufacturing and change while also raising concerns
only moderate expansion job market labor requirements about potential job losses
Energy
Rising Tensions, Elevated Oil Prices
Oil prices had decreased slightly from $85 per barrel (bbl) at the start of 2024 to an average of $75/bbl
in September. The oil market has not maintained prices based on demand alone, as global economic
growth has been sluggish. Conflicts in the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and voluntary oil
production cuts have contributed to keeping prices elevated.
In 2025, oil prices are expected to remain steady in the $75-$80/bbl range. However, oil prices can surpass
$80/bbl if there’s additional escalation in the Middle East. On the other hand, de-escalation could drive
prices below $70/bbl.
100
80
60
40
20
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 2023 2024 2025
China has been a phenomenal driver of growth since joining the World Trade Organization. The country
now navigates slowing growth, a real estate crisis and shifting government policies — and the world is
watching. Will China return to its high-growth model, or will it begin to plateau?
Budding trade wars and the increased interest in nearshoring add to these challenges. These pressures
threaten to limit the growth potential of the world’s second largest economy.
A deeper and longer slowdown will have global repercussions: China is not just the largest supplier of steel,
construction material, pharmaceutical raw materials, footwear and electronics, it is also among the biggest
importer of fuels, machinery and equipment, and precious metals. A slowdown will impact other economies
based on their trade and investment ties with China. GEP anticipates that China’s leaders will ramp up
economic stimulus actions if growth continues to slow.
Procurement is on the cusp of a profound transformation. While all functions are poised to benefit from
innovations in AI, few are positioned for such a seismic shift as procurement. As AI tools mature and
take on more sophisticated roles, the traditional procurement operating model will become obsolete. The
question is not if procurement will change, but how to embrace this transformation and unlock value.
Procurement leaders are already asking: Will technology redefine the human role? Will the procurement
function exist in the future? GEP expects the answer to be a resounding yes, but not in the form
procurement leaders understand today. AI will affect the operating model in three distinct phases, each
more transformative than the last, as organizations embark on their AI evolution.
Empower AI co-pilots
• Team structures and roles change as focus shifts to data
management and AI governance
Phase 1: Assist
The year 2025 will mark the Assist phase for most companies. In this phase, AI tools act as “co-pilots,”
automating low-value tasks and providing insights that allow procurement teams to make more informed
decisions. Today, AI is embedded in source-to-pay (S2P) platforms, offering spend forecasting, supplier
discounting, fraud detection, and contract drafting tools. However, the core decision-making still lies with
humans.
At this stage, procurement teams are not significantly impacted in size or structure. AI is limited to
augmenting human capability, improving productivity, and enabling teams to deliver incremental cost savings
and efficiencies. But as AI tools become more advanced, the role of procurement professionals will evolve.
Phase 2: Perform
The Perform phase will see AI taking on a more prominent role. More advanced AI solutions will begin
managing end-to-end procurement workflows, performing tasks like category strategy development,
contract renewals, and demand forecasting autonomously, while still guided by a “human-in-the-loop” to
validate and control outputs.
In this phase, procurement team structures will begin to shift. The need for tactical roles will diminish as
automation takes over. Instead, new strategic roles will emerge, focused on interpreting AI-driven insights,
managing more complex categories, and ensuring continuous improvement in AI outputs.
Teams will require new competencies, with emphasis on data analytics, AI fluency, and business insights, as
procurement evolves to a more strategic driver of business value.
Phase 3: Empower
The final envisaged evolution is the Empower phase. In this stage, procurement becomes a highly digitalized
function in which business users, enabled by AI co-pilots, will manage procurement activities independently.
Routine, low-complexity purchases, supplier evaluations, and even contract negotiations will be handled
by intuitive AI-driven platforms, freeing procurement professionals to focus on strategic projects, complex
categories, and supplier relationships.
In this phase, the operating model will see a massive shift. Category teams will evolve into value-chain
optimization teams, while business partner teams become deeply embedded within business units to deliver
insights and strategies aligned with operational goals. The rise of self-service procurement will reduce the
need for traditional roles, but in its place, highly specialized data management and AI governance teams will
take center stage.
AI’s potential in procurement extends far beyond automation and efficiency. As AI tools evolve, they will
unlock deeper insights into supplier performance, cost optimization, risk management, and sustainability.
Procurement will no longer be measured solely on cost savings. New metrics, such as agility in responding
to supply disruptions, greenhouse gas reductions, and the proportion of touchless transactions, will
become key indicators of success.
To fully realize these benefits, organizations must invest in the right infrastructure, including master data
readiness, a seamless digital ecosystem, and upskilling procurement teams in AI fluency and advanced
business analytics.
As chief procurement officers (CPOs) and supply chain leaders navigate this transformation, there are three
key considerations to keep in mind:
1. Adopt a Clear AI Vision and Strategy: AI transformation must begin with a clear vision. Securing
executive alignment and cross-functional support is critical for gaining traction in the early stages of
transformation.
2. Invest in Data Management: Data is the backbone of AI. CPOs must ensure their organizations have
clean, accessible, and governed data to feed into AI tools. Investing in master data management and
robust governance structures is essential for accuracy and effectiveness.
3. Build New Capabilities: The shift to AI-driven procurement requires new skillsets. CPOs should
prioritize the upskilling of their teams, focusing on digital literacy, AI fluency, and business analytics.
Talent strategies should evolve to attract individuals with these skills.
Key Takeaway
AI is transforming the future of procurement operating models. The changes that come will not only reshape
how procurement teams operate but also how they deliver value. Organizations that embrace this shift,
investing in the right tools, data infrastructure and talent, will be positioned to unlock value and outpace their
competitors. Procurement as we know it may be dead, but in its place, a more powerful, agile and data-driven
function will emerge.
A procurement orchestration platform enables end-to-end AI-driven self-service across the S2P process
throughout the organization. AI, specifically generative AI, guides employees, regardless of their expertise,
through the intake process to make optimal purchasing decisions by recommending the best suppliers,
negotiating favorable prices and automating compliance with procurement policies. This ensures that
people within the company buy the right products or services in a simple, structured and cost-effective
manner.
AI-powered procurement orchestration tools leverage real-time data and predictive analytics, allowing
companies to not only streamline and automate the purchasing process but also forecast needs, manage
supplier performance and proactively address risks with greater speed and effectiveness.
Agility has become more crucial than ever as supply chain disruptions have become increasingly common.
Orchestration tools enable companies to dynamically adjust sourcing strategies in response to real-time
data. These platforms can analyze inputs from multiple sources, highlight potential risks and recommend
alternative suppliers or rerouting logistics to ensure minimal disruption. This level of responsiveness will be
a competitive advantage in 2025 and beyond.
Risks across the supply chain have grown in recent years as supply networks have become more
interconnected. AI-enabled procurement orchestration platforms allow businesses to manage these risks
proactively by monitoring supplier performance, geopolitical factors and market conditions. AI detects
patterns and trends that signal potential issues, flagging them for action. This predictive capability enables
procurement teams to mitigate risks before they escalate.
Procurement orchestration tools should not be deployed in isolation but be aligned with broader corporate
goals — it must be clear which corporate goals are being addressed (compliance, cost reduction, efficiency,
etc.) Leaders who try to solve everything on day 1 are more likely to fail.
As exciting as these tools are, the Achilles heel is data. These platforms rely on real-time, accurate data to deliver
meaningful, actionable insights. Executives need to prioritize the integration of data from multiple systems —
such as ERP, finance and supplier portals — and ensure that the data is clean and up to date. Investing in data
management early in the process will maximize the return on investment from orchestration tools.
Change Management
Deploying orchestration tools represents a significant shift in how procurement teams operate. The need for an
effective, robust change management plan is vital and should not be an afterthought. Leaders should deploy
full-fledged change enablement programs, including communication strategies, training, workshops and more. A
culture shift to embrace working with data and the power of automation is essential.
Key Takeaway
The ability to organize procurement activities more effectively without major upgrades to ERP systems is a
game-changer for many companies. Enterprises that adopt an AI-driven procurement orchestration tool can
take advantage of substantial efficiencies and empower their teams to lower costs, manage risk and manage
complexity in a more impactful way.
But what exactly are they? Simply put, AI agents, sometimes called digital or autonomous agents, are
intelligent, interactive software tools powered by AI. They operate autonomously or semi-autonomously
to manage tasks, analyze data and make decisions based on preset parameters, real-time information
and machine learning capabilities. AI agents can perform a wide range of procurement and supply chain
functions, from automating purchase orders and tracking shipments to conducting risk assessments and
making sourcing recommendations.
For most, the real question is no longer whether AI agents can make an impact, but how best to integrate them.
Short-Term Applications
Routine Task Automation: AI agents automate time-consuming tasks like purchase order creation and
invoice matching, freeing teams to focus on high-impact strategic work.
Risk Monitoring: Equipped with predictive analytics, AI agents monitor disruptions — such as weather
events and geopolitical risks — enabling teams to respond proactively.
Demand Forecasting: AI agents provide more accurate demand forecasts by analyzing historical data and
market signals, helping companies improve production and sourcing plans.
Longer-Term Applications
Incremental Sourcing: AI agents will autonomously negotiate prices, select suppliers and adjust sourcing
strategies in real time to balance costs and risks.
Supply Flow Optimization: AI agents will eventually watch all supply chain movements, recommending or
intervening to optimize steps, from raw materials to final delivery.
Acquiring AI agents starts with selecting the right technology providers. Leading vendors in AI and
automation offer modular solutions, enabling companies to implement targeted capabilities and scale up as
confidence in the technology grows.
GEP expects an avalanche of new providers to emerge. Many will offer a flashy or compelling use case and a
path for rapid implementation. However, traditional providers of procurement and supply chain expertise are
best positioned to offer a sustainable solution over time.
Skepticism around AI agents is understandable. This won’t be the first time technology companies have
been accused of selling magic beans. Concerns around reliability, control and implementation complexity
are valid and require resolution. GEP anticipates that leaders will base how they move forward on these
guidelines:
• Reliability: AI agents should demonstrate transparency by offering clear, data-backed reasoning for their
recommendations and decisions.
• Human-in-the-loop Oversight: These agents are designed to support human expertise, not replace it.
They act as collaborators, allowing teams to focus on strategic tasks.
• Limit Complexity and Build Gradually: Starting small with a pilot approach allows teams to experience
incremental benefits before making a larger-scale commitment.
Embracing AI agents may not come organically to most leadership teams. Leaders will likely prioritize the
following:
Pilot AI agents in specific, high-impact areas to assess the technology’s effectiveness and risk in a controlled
setting, allowing the organization to learn gradually. Success in a pilot project will build momentum and
validate the value of AI agents within the broader organization.
AI agents rely on accurate, high-quality data to make the correct decisions. Without this, digital agents can
miss objectives or provide incorrect results. A poor data foundation is a barrier to scaling this technology.
Ensure that data is standardized, integrated across systems and readily accessible for use by digital agents.
If necessary, invest in data management and governance technologies before deploying AI agents.
Perhaps even more important than the technical results is the potential for momentum. As AI agents impact
various areas of the business, stakeholders from across the organization should get a first-hand look at AI
agents so that they can evangelize the technology’s utility in the future. Involving cross-functional teams early
on ensures that the right stakeholders are on board, systems are properly integrated, and potential issues are
identified and resolved.
A cross-functional team can also ensure that goal posts are set and not moved. The outcomes from these
projects might be somewhat subjective, so it is important that a balanced group of leaders help separate fact
from fiction.
Key Takeaway
AI agents are no longer a futuristic concept; they are a tangible tool for procurement and supply chain leaders
to create more resilient, efficient and adaptable operations. By focusing on pilot programs, business areas
with high-quality data and cross-functional collaboration, executives can unlock the strategic advantages
AI agents offer in the year ahead. For those ready to take the first step, AI agents represent a significant
advancement — and an invaluable partner — in the future of procurement and supply chain management.
In 2025, business value in procurement and supply chain management is no longer defined solely by cost.
The rise of new pressures — resilience, sustainability, risk management and compliance — means the
value proposition has shifted. The question is not whether to adapt, but how to integrate these dimensions
into operations and strategy. Cost pressures are not going away, but can procurement master all?
Traditional procurement KPIs need to evolve. Resilience, for example, must be measured by supply chain
flexibility or time to recovery from a disruption. Sustainability KPIs could track carbon emissions, while
supplier diversity and ethical compliance should become central to supplier scorecards. Cost savings have
usually been more straightforward to measure, but many of these new metrics are subjective and open to
interpretation.
A shift in how procurement teams report success to the board and management is a key aspect of this
KPI evolution. And it is just as important to align on how these metrics will be measured. Communicating
the total value impact now extends beyond cost savings. It requires procurement to demonstrate how its
decisions contribute to business resilience, regulatory compliance and long-term sustainability.
Resilience comes at a cost and executives need to be prepared to accept that tradeoff. Cost increases
associated with resilience-building measures should be positioned as long-term investments rather than
short-term financial burdens.
The true value of resilience is in ensuring business continuity during disruptions, preventing revenue loss and
maintaining customer trust. For procurement and supply chain leaders, this means advocating for resilience
initiatives at the executive level and communicating its long-term financial benefits rather than focusing
solely on immediate cost savings.
Compliance with environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards is increasingly scrutinized by
investors, regulators and consumers, making it a non-negotiable part of doing business. Leaders need to
take on an active role in ensuring that ESG goals are embedded into supply chain strategies. For example,
supply chain managers must track and reduce Scope 3 emissions, and ensure that suppliers adhere to
ethical labor practices.
Procurement must work with suppliers to ensure they meet these standards. This could mean renegotiating
contracts to include sustainability clauses or investing in technology to monitor supplier compliance in real
time. Leaders should also ensure they quickly adapt to emerging regulations by building flexible procurement
systems that integrate compliance tracking and reporting tools.
Procurement and supply chain leaders must invest in predictive analytics and AI-enabled risk management
tools for insights into potential disruptions. This includes monitoring supplier risk indicators, geopolitical
developments and market volatility. Such tools will help procurement teams make smarter sourcing
decisions, pivot supply chains and ensure that the organization is prepared to respond quickly to crises.
For many, a change in how they approach supplier management is necessary. The focus must be less on
squeezing margins and more on co-creating value that benefits both parties. Supplier collaboration will be
critical in achieving long-term success in this new era of value creation, but procurement must set terms. For
some, this is an evolution of a long-maturing idea. For others, it is time to catch up.
Key Takeaway
The evolution of business value beyond cost presents both a challenge and an opportunity. By embracing
resilience, sustainability and proactive risk management, executives can create supply chains that are robust,
adaptable and future-proof. Leaders who succeed in 2025 will be those who recognize that value is no longer
measured by price alone — it is defined by the ability to adapt, sustain and thrive in a complex and rapidly
changing world.
This development is both a disruption and a challenge. For decades, globalization enabled companies to
optimize costs and efficiency. There wasn’t always a compelling need to have much supply chain visibility
beyond the immediate suppliers. Today, that same global footprint is under scrutiny, with regulators
expecting transparency and holding companies accountable for practices within their upstream supply
chains. Regulations such as the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD)
and the U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) represent a new reality: Companies must meet
strict environmental, social and ethical standards across their own operations as well as ensure that their
suppliers do the same.
19%
20 Stable
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Not at all Don’t
important know
76%
Growing
Source: A GEP-sponsored CIPS Global State of Procurement & Supply Survey 2024.
109 respondents were asked: “On a scale of 1 to 7 where 1 is not at all important and 7 is very important, how important are
ESG issues within your organization?” and “Is the importance of ESG issues within your organization growing…?”
Leaders should develop clear reporting frameworks for supply chain practices, aligning with the transparency
standards set by regulations such as the CSRD. Adopting technology solutions that track and verify supplier
data may ensure the organizations can confidently disclose material origins, environmental impact and labor
practices across their supply chains.
Compliance has often played a secondary role during audits and regulatory filings. With current scrutiny,
this approach may not suffice. Modern regulations demand responsive visibility and proactive oversight
throughout supply chains.
Compliance task forces are pragmatic enhancements to procurement and supply chain teams. These groups
can monitor regulatory developments, track changes in supplier practices and provide regular updates to
senior leadership. They help ensure that compliance remains a priority across all levels of the supply chain.
Many companies may not have the contractual framework to address today’s regulatory needs with their
suppliers. In the effort to have standard terms and conditions, a high number of agreements overlook some
of these elements. Also, as many firms have thousands of suppliers to manage, standard reports have
historically won out over custom compliance analysis. Companies should upgrade on all accounts.
Sharing accountability is essential. Firms should revise supplier agreements to include specific clauses
addressing compliance with relevant regulations, such as sustainability targets, labor practices and
environmental impact. Additionally, they should implement regular audits and performance reviews to ensure
compliance standards are met consistently.
Most firms have supplier audits and scorecards in some form, but few are well-organized enough to
effectively manage compliance across complex, multi-tiered supply chains. Businesses must go beyond
periodic audits and establish structured systems for continuous evaluation.
This could require companies to create the budget and organizational support to increase the frequency and
depth of supplier audits, especially for high-risk suppliers. They should also revise their scorecard system
to evaluate compliance in areas like sustainability, labor practices and ethical sourcing. Regularly sharing
scorecard results with suppliers may encourage improvement and accountability.
Geopolitical tensions and regulatory pressure in certain regions — particularly those with potential labor
or environmental compliance issues — are prompting companies to rethink their sourcing strategies. For
procurement and supply chain leaders, this is an opportunity to diversify and localize supply chains to
mitigate risk. Building resilience through a mix of regional suppliers and nearshoring options can reduce
dependence on high-risk areas and improve the organization’s ability to adapt to regulatory changes.
The first step would be to create an internal business case to evaluate resilience over cost efficiencies gained
from a diversified supplier network. Regardless of the priority, by strengthening contingency plans for high-
risk suppliers, organizations can ensure business continuity.
Key Takeaway
As regulatory scrutiny intensifies, procurement and supply chain leaders must pivot from reactive compliance
to proactive, strategic management. By embracing transparency, redefining compliance as a continuous
process, strengthening supplier accountability, enhancing audits and building resilient supply networks,
companies can navigate the challenges posed by regulatory demands while gaining a strategic edge.
For supply chain and procurement leaders, this changing environment means they must rethink traditional
models. A future shaped by protectionist trade policies, tariffs and increased regulatory scrutiny will
demand a more agile, resilient and forward-thinking approach to supply chain management. Several key
trends are accelerating in 2025, requiring strategic recalibrating in response to an evolving trade landscape.
This strategic shift is driven by the need for greater control and reduced risk. As businesses reconsider their
exposure to geopolitical volatility, leaders must balance cost and security concerns. The savings traditionally
gained through offshoring may no longer justify the risks posed by unstable trade relations and potential
disruptions. Consequently, supply chains must be designed to prioritize agility, even at the expense of short-
term cost advantages.
In the past, TCO calculations were largely driven by direct costs: unit prices, transportation and labor. In
2025, this narrow view will no longer suffice. The new reality demands a more comprehensive approach that
factors in the costs of resilience, risk management, sustainability and regulatory compliance.
Executives must move beyond traditional cost metrics and adopt a more holistic view of TCO that integrates
geopolitical risk, environmental regulations and supply chain flexibility. This shift will require new tools and
methodologies to ensure that decisions are made with a long-term strategic perspective, rather than a short-
term focus on cost savings.
Supply chains are no longer a series of isolated transactions — they are evolving into complex ecosystems.
In 2025, the most successful organizations will be those that treat their suppliers as connected partners,
collaborating on cost, innovation, risk management and more. Leaders should invest in building trust with
suppliers, logistics providers and even competitors.
A functioning ecosystem offers many benefits. It makes it easier to mitigate challenges and spur innovation.
It can help companies become more customer-centric. It also enables firms to increase agility and rapidly
realize business changes.
Building
Redefining TCO Collaborative Ecosystems
Diversification
Nearshoring
Friendshoring
Regionalization
The most urgent priority for 2025 will be preparing for a world where trade barriers are more common than
trade agreements. As protectionism, tariffs and political intervention in global trade seem unlikely to subside
in the near term, executives should accelerate their long-term strategic shifts, focusing on diversification,
nearshoring and friendshoring, and regionalization to ensure their supply chains are resilient.
This is not a series of incremental changes. Leaders are charting a new supply chain strategy and model.
The proverbial compass needs to be repositioned and ready to show the way in a world where geopolitical
risks and trade barriers affect the rules of the game.
Key Takeaway
Procurement and supply chain leaders face a complex, evolving landscape where the forces of globalization
are giving way to protectionism and new regulatory demands. Success in 2025 will require a bolder shift
in strategy: recalculating TCO to account for long-term risks, building collaborative ecosystems that foster
resilience and accelerating the strategic shifts needed to thrive in a world marked by increasing trade barriers.
Amid shifts in trade policy, increased urgency on sustainability, a dynamic regulatory environment and more,
procurement and supply chain will play a central role in meeting these new demands and achieving resilience
without compromising on ethical standards.
Leaders who invest in transformative tools and foster a culture of adaptability will be best positioned to thrive
in this new landscape. Embracing change will not only ensure survival but also secure a competitive edge,
heralding a future where procurement is as strategic as it is essential.
2025 will be the breakout year for the right cohort of procurement and supply chain leaders.
John Piatek
Vice President, Consulting
John has over 20 years of strategy consulting experience managing several large-scale
engagements with leading global clients.
At GEP, John is responsible for partnering with leading CPG and retail enterprises on
strategy, supply chain and management initiatives. John is also the Chair of GEP’s Thought
Leadership Council.
LET’S TALK
OUTLOOK 2025
Notes
1 Paul Wiseman, “IMF’s View: The Global Fight Against High Inflation Is 9 Jenni Reid, “European Central Bank Cuts Rates, Lagarde Flags
Almost Won,” AP, 24 October 2024 | https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/ Downside Risks to Inflation Outlook,” CNBC, 31 October 2024 |
spotlights/2024/imfs-view-the-global-fight-against-high-inflation-is- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/european-central-bank-october-
almost-won/ meeting.html
2 Tom Espiner, “Surprise Fall in Inflation Paves Way for Interest Rate 10 Gokhan Ergocun, “China Lowers Interest Rate More Than
Cuts,” BBC, 16 October 2024 | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ Forecasts,” Anadolu Agency, 21 October 2024 | https://www.
czxde3779lxo aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-lowers-interest-rate-more-than-
forecasts/3368863#
3 “Euro Area Annual Inflation Up To 2.0%,” Eurostat, 31 October 2024
| https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2- 11 “October MPC Minutes: RBI Governor Says Cannot Risk
31102024-ap#:~:text=Close%20Print-,Overview,office%20of%20the%20 Another Bout of Inflation,” Business Today India, 23 October 2024 |
European%20Union. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/october-mpc-
minutes-rbi-governor-says-cannot-risk-another-bout-of-
4 David Lawder, “US Remains Engine of Global Growth in Latest inflation-451292-2024-10-23
IMF Forecasts,” Reuters, 22 October 2024 | https://www.reuters.com/
markets/us/imf-lifts-us-growth-forecast-marks-down-china-sees- 12 “Slightly More American Apply for Unemployment Benefits Last
lackluster-global-economy-2024-10-22/ Week, but Layoffs Remain at Low Levels,” CNBC, 7 November 2024
| https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/slightly-more-american-apply-for-
5 Jenni Reid, “IMF Hikes UK Growth Outlook Amid Lower Inflation and unemployment-benefits-last-week-but-layoffs-remain-at-low-
Interest Rates,” CNBC, 22 October 2024 | https://www.cnbc.com/ levels-19505898.htm
2024/10/22/imf-hikes-uk-growth-outlook-amid-lower-inflation-and-
interest-rates.html 13 “The Current State of the Labour Market,” RSM, 21 October 2024
| https://www.rsmuk.com/insights/advisory/the-current-state-of-the-
6 “Policy Pivots, Rising Threats: World Economic Outlook, IMF, October labour-market
2024 | https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/
world-economic-outlook-october-2024 14 “China’s Job Market Remains Stable in First Three Quarters,”
People’s Daily Online, 18 October 2024 | http://en.people.cn/
7 Alexander Jones, “The Fed Has Finally Cut Its Rate—Now What?” n3/2024/1018/c90000-20231302.html
International Banker, 22 October 2024 | https://internationalbanker.com/
banking/the-fed-has-finally-cut-its-rate-now-what/ 15 “Unemployment Rate in India (2008 to 2024: Current Rate,
Historical Trends and More,” Forbes India, 17 October 2024 | https://
8 Dearbail Jordan and Faisal Islam, “Interest Rates Cut but Bank Hints www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/unemployment-rate-in-
Fewer Falls To Come,” 7 November 2024, BBC | https://www.bbc.com/ india/87441/1
news/articles/c789n4l2xpgo
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