1

Scores (Out of 100)

Factor Weight Alt 1 Alt 2
Proximity to existing
0.1 85 95
source
Traffic volume 0.2 80 75
Rental costs 0.3 70 90
Size 0.15 86 50
Layout 0.15 70 45
Operating Cost 0.1 95 85

Factor rating for Alt 1 78.4

Factor rating for Alt 2 74.25
Better Alternative Alt 1

Destination x y Weekly Quantity

D1 5 7 500
D2 3 1 700
D3 6 4 100
D4 9 2 400
23 14 1700

x y (x,y)
Center of gravity coordinate 5.18 3.18 ( 5.18 , 3.18 )

i observation Time minutes

1 1.1 Given
2 1.05 x=
3 1.2 y=
4 1.5
5 1.18
6 1.1 Average observed time
7 1.2 Normal time /minute
 8 1.15 Appropriate Standard time
9 1.9
10 1.75

T1 Possible future demands

Alternatives Low(0.3) Moderate(0.4) High(0.3)
Small facility $3.00 $7.00 $10.00
Medium facility $4.00 $10.00 $17.00
Large facility $0.00 $15.00 $23.00
Extra large facility ($6) $17 $25
Decison

T2 for Minimax regret table

Small facility $1.00 $10.00 $15.00
Medium facility $0.00 $7.00 $8.00
Large facility $4.00 $2.00 $2.00
Extra large facility $10.00 $0.00 $0.00

Annual
Product Standard processing time per unit (hr)
demand
1 500 7
2 500 4
3 250 2
4 460 3

Total processing time 7380

Available time 2000
No. of machines required 3.69

0.55 0.61
 0.82 0.56

Input
0.83 0.57

Realiabilty of Machine no.1 = 0.99

Realiabilty of Machine no.2 = 0.69
Realiabilty of Machine no.3 = 0.73
Realiabilty of Machine no.4 = 0.81
Realiabilty of the System = 0.40
Possibility of failure = 0.60

Date Monthly Price5 period SMA 5 period WMA

2000 125 125 0.00
2001 130 128 42
2002 135 130 77
2003 138 132 105
2004 139 133 125
2005 140 136 136
2006 135 137 138
2007 140 138 138
2008 144 140 138
2009 145 141 140
2010 147 142 142
2011 150 145 144
2012 152 148 147
2013 154 150 149
2014 155 152 151
2015 170 156 153
2016 180 162 159
2017 184 169 167
2018 188 175 174
2019 190 182 181
2020 195 187 186
2021 189 189 190
1.46
24%

1.31
1.92
 2.38

Maximin Maximax Laplace Minimax regret EMV

Choose Worst Best Average Max value fr T2 Best EMV
3 10 6.67 15 6.7
4 17 10.33 8 10.3
0 23 12.67 4 12.9
-6 25 12.00 10 12.5
Medium facility Extra large facility 12.67 Large facility Large facility
Choose the Choose the
Choose the best of the Choose the best Minimum of
best average best expected
worst payoff maximum regret
value value

Processing time needed

3500
2000
500
1380

0.71
 0.62 0.72

0.63 0.73
Output

Exponential smoothing
Monthly price SMA
0
200 WMA Exponential smoothing
25
46 190
64 180
79
170
91
101 160
107 150
114 140
120
130
125
129 120
134 110
137
100
141 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
143
149 Weight 0.5 0.4 0.3
155
161
166 1995 1996
171 Previous Price 0 0
176
 EVPI
EVwPI-EVwoPI
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
EVPI
= EVwPI-
EVwoPI
smoothing

14 2016 2018 2020

0.2 0.1

1997 1998 1999

0 0 0