Name: _______________________________________________

GCSE Statistics

Probability (Higher Only)

Total marks available: 74

Total marks achieved: ______

Instructions
• Use black ink or ball-point pen.
• Fill in the boxes at the top of this page with your name,
centre number and candidate number.
• Answer all questions.
• Answer the questions in the spaces provided
– there may be more space than you need.
• Scientific calculators may be used.
• You must show all your working out with your answer clearly identified
at the end of your solution.

Information
• The marks for each question are shown in brackets
– use this as a guide as to how much time to spend on each question.

Advice
• Read each question carefully before you start to answer it.
• Try to answer every question.
• Check your answers if you have time at the end.
Q1.

The ambulance service has a target of responding to 75% of life threatening calls in 8 minutes or less.

The table shows the actual response rates for two locations in the UK in 2014

For a life threatening call made in 2014

(i) write down the absolute risk that an ambulance takes more than 8 minutes to respond in
Littlehampton,

...........................................................
(1)
(ii) work out the relative risk that an ambulance takes more than 8 minutes to respond in York, compared
with the target.

...........................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 3 marks)

Q2.

The Venn diagram shows information about 20 films shown in the UK in 2015

A is the event that the film was produced in the UK.

B is the event that the film made more than £40 million.

The numbers in the Venn diagram indicate the number of films.

(a) Explain fully what the number 3 represents in the Venn diagram.

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................
(1)
One of the films is chosen at random.

(b) Find P(B)

...........................................................
(1)
(c) Find P(B | A)

...........................................................
(2)
(d) Using your answers to part (b) and part (c), explain whether or not A and B are independent events.

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 6 marks)

Q3.

X and Y are two events.

The Venn diagram shows information about the probabilities of events related to X and Y happening.

(a) Find
(i) the probability of event Y happening.

...........................................................
(ii) P(X and Y ),

...........................................................
(iii) P(Y | X).

...........................................................
(4)
Two different events A and B are independent.

P(A) = 0.8 and P(B) = 0.5

(b) Find P(A and B).

...........................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 6 marks)

Q4.

Some students at a school walk home and some students go home by bus.

A is the event that a student walks to school, where P(A) = 0.6

B is the event that a student is driven to school, where P(B) = 0.3

Some students are driven some of the way to school and then they walk the rest of the way to school,
where P(A and B) = 0.15

A student is picked at random from the students at the school.

Work out P(A or B).

...........................................................

(Total for question = 2 marks)

Q5.

Jasper has 3 coins.

In an experiment, Jasper flips each of the 3 coins and records the total number of heads that he gets.

Jasper believes that each coin is biased so that the number of heads he gets can be modelled by the
binomial distribution, B(3, 0.4).

(a) Show that P(0 heads) = 0.216

(1)
(b) Work out the probability that the outcome of the experiment is exactly 1 head.

...........................................................
(2)
Jasper carries out the experiment 100 times.

The table shows information about the number of heads he gets for each experiment.

(c) Determine whether or not the model B(3, 0.4) is suitable for Jasper's experiment.

(5)

(Total for question = 8 marks)

Q6. Claire buys packs of sports cards.
The cards can be bought in premium packs and in standard packs.

Of the packs that Claire buys, 30% are premium packs and 70% are standard packs.

In each premium pack there are 6 regular cards and 4 special cards.

In each standard pack there are 4 regular cards and 1 special card.

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram for this information.

(1)
Claire picks at random one of the packs she has bought, opens the pack and takes at random one card
from the pack.

(b) Work out the probability that the card is a regular card.

...........................................................
(3)
Given that the card is a regular card,

(c) work out the probability that it came from a premium pack.

...........................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 6 marks)

Q7.

It was reported that 3% of the old style £1 coins are fake.

All the other old style £1 coins are genuine.

Shreya has two old style £1 coins.

She does not know if each coin is genuine or fake.

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.

(2)
(b) Show that the probability that both of Shreya's coins are genuine is 0.9409

(1)
Shreya claims that the probability that exactly one of her two coins is fake is less than 6%

(c) Determine whether or not Shreya is correct.

(3)

(Total for question = 6 marks)

Q8.

The table gives information about the numbers of students from different types of schools who applied to
Cambridge University in 2016

A student is to be chosen at random from the 9963 students.

F is the event that the student chosen is female.

I is the event that the student chosen is from an independent school.

M is the event that the student chosen is from a maintained school.

(d) Explain why the event F and the event I are not mutually exclusive.

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................
(1)
(e) Find P(I or M).

...........................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 3 marks)

Q9.

Sam wants to investigate what musical instruments people play.

He asked a sample of 100 people whether they play any or none of the piano (P), the flute (F) or the
clarinet (C).

The incomplete Venn diagram shows some information about his results.

(a) Explain fully what the number 3 represents in the Venn diagram.

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................
(1)
Of the 100 people Sam asked,
37 played the piano and the flute
31 played the clarinet.
(b) Complete the Venn diagram.
(2)
One of the 100 people Sam asked is chosen at random.

Given that this person played at least two of the instruments,

(c) find the probability that this person played all three of the instruments.

...........................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 5 marks)

Q10. A company contracts two manufacturers, A and B, to make an item that the company sells.
Manufacturer A makes 65% of the items for the company to sell.

It is found that 9% of the items made by manufacturer A do not meet the company's required standard.

It is found that 12% of the items made by manufacturer B do not meet the company's required standard.

An item is to be picked at random.

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram for this item.

(1)
One of the items that the company is to sell is picked at random.

M is the event that the item was made by manufacturer A.

N is the event that the item does not meet the required standard.

(b) Find P(M |N).

...........................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 3 marks)

Q11.

Emily and Jess work in the head office of a chain of restaurants.

The menu in all of the restaurants has recently been changed.

Emily and Jess have been asked to find out the effect of these changes.

They are going to start by finding out what the kitchen staff think of the new menu.

Emily thinks that they should use a cluster sample of kitchen staff in the restaurants.
The restaurants would be the clusters.

Jess thinks that they should use judgement sampling.

The head chef of the company would be asked to select suitably experienced kitchen staff for the
judgement sample.

(a) Discuss whether these two sampling methods are suitable for Emily and Jess to use.

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................

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(3)
A website gives diners the opportunity to rate their dining experience at restaurants.
Here is one of the questions that diners are asked to answer.

Emily recorded the mean ratings, correct to one decimal place, for meals at each of the 28 restaurants in
the chain.

The stem and leaf diagram gives information about Emily's recorded mean ratings.
Emily picks at random one of the restaurants.

(b) Find the probability that the mean rating recorded by Emily for meals at this restaurant is less than 2.5

...........................................................
(1)
Jess separates the ratings into those that were made for meals from the previous menu and those that
were made for meals from the new menu.

Jess uses her data to draw a percentage composite bar chart in order to compare the ratings for the
previous menu and the ratings for the new menu.

The table below gives the percentages for each rating for the new menu.

(c) Use the information in the table to complete the percentage composite bar chart for the new menu.
(2)

(d) Use information from the composite percentage bar charts to describe what conclusions can be made
about the effects of the changes to the menu.

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................
(2)

(Total for question = 8 marks)

Q12. The Venn diagram shows probabilities relating to the three events A, B and C.

(a) Write down which two events from A, B and C are mutually exclusive.
Give a reason for your answer.
.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................
(2)
(b) Find P(B).

...........................................................
(1)
(c) Find P(A or C).

...........................................................
(2)
(d) Complete the Venn diagram below to show the probabilities relating to the two events A and B.

(2)

(Total for question = 7 marks)

Q13.

The manager of a garage records optional extra features sold with each new car sold last month.
The optional extra features are air conditioning (A), bluetooth (B) and sat nav (S).

Last month,
80 cars were sold
7 cars were sold with sat nav and bluetooth and air conditioning
15 cars were sold with sat nav and bluetooth only
21 cars were sold with sat nav and air conditioning only
10 cars were sold with bluetooth and air conditioning only
8 cars were sold with sat nav only
33 cars in total were sold with bluetooth
44 cars in total were sold with air conditioning.
(a) Complete the Venn diagram using this information.

(3)
Inge picks at random a car that was sold last month.

She thinks that the probability that the car has bluetooth given that it has sat nav is
greater than the probability that the car has bluetooth given that it has not got sat nav.

(b) Is Inge correct?

You must show your working.

(5)
Second-hand cars are also sold at the garage.
The manager records whether the second-hand cars have a full service history or not.
She also records whether each second-hand car has a breakdown or not in the first year
after being sold.

The table gives information about the second-hand cars sold at the garage in 2018

Paul says that the relative risk of a second-hand car without a full service history having
a breakdown in the first year after being sold, compared with a second-hand car with a
full service history having a breakdown in the first year after being sold, is 2

(c) (i) Show that Paul is correct.

(2)
(ii) Interpret a relative risk of 2 in this context.
.............................................................................................................................................

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.............................................................................................................................................
(1)

(Total for question = 11 marks)