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inside front cover

Three stages of an A/B test: Design, Measure, and Analyze

Four iterations of a Bayesian optimization. In frames (a)–(d), we
run four iterations of the optimization. By frame (d), the
parameter value (black dots) has stopped changing.
Experimentation for Engineers
FROM A/B TESTING TO BAYESIAN OPTIMIZATION

David Sweet

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Development editor: Karen Miller and Katherine Olstein

Technical development editor: Alain Couniot
Review editor: Mihaela Batinić
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dedication
To B and Iz.
contents
front matter
preface
acknowledgments
about this book
about the author
about the cover illustration
1 Optimizing systems by experiment
1.1 Examples of engineering workflows
Machine learning engineer’s workflow
Quantitative trader’s workflow
Software engineer’s workflow
1.2 Measuring by experiment
Experimental methods
Practical problems and pitfalls
1.3 Why are experiments necessary?
Domain knowledge
Offline model quality
Simulation
2 A/B testing: Evaluating a modification to your system
2.1 Take an ad hoc measurement
Simulate the trading system
Compare execution costs
2.2 Take a precise measurement
Mitigate measurement variation with replication
2.3 Run an A/B test
Analyze your measurements
Design the A/B test
Measure and analyze
Recap of A/B test stages
3 Multi-armed bandits: Maximizing business metrics while
experimenting
 3.1 Epsilon-greedy: Account for the impact of evaluation on
business metrics
A/B testing as a baseline
The epsilon-greedy algorithm
Deciding when to stop
3.2 Evaluating multiple system changes simultaneously
3.3 Thompson sampling: A more efficient MAB algorithm
Estimate the probability that an arm is the best
Randomized probability matching
The complete algorithm
4 Response surface methodology: Optimizing continuous
parameters
4.1 Optimize a single continuous parameter
Design: Choose parameter values to measure
Take the measurements
Analyze I: Interpolate between measurements
Analyze II: Optimize the business metric
Validate the optimal parameter value
4.2 Optimizing two or more continuous parameters
Design the two-parameter experiment
Measure, analyze, and validate the 2D experiment
5 Contextual bandits: Making targeted decisions
5.1 Model a business metric offline to make decisions online
Model the business-metric outcome of a decision
Add the decision-making component 128
Run and evaluate the greedy recommender
5.2 Explore actions with epsilon-greedy
Missing counterfactuals degrade predictions
Explore with epsilon-greedy to collect counterfactuals
5.3 Explore parameters with Thompson sampling
Create an ensemble of prediction models
Randomized probability matching
5.4 Validate the contextual bandit
6 Bayesian optimization: Automating experimental
optimization
6.1 Optimizing a single compiler parameter, a visual
explanation
Simulate the compiler
Run the initial experiment
Analyze: Model the response surface
Design: Select the parameter value to measure next
Design: Balance exploration with exploitation
6.2 Model the response surface with Gaussian process
regression
Estimate the expected CPU time
Estimate uncertainty with GPR
6.3 Optimize over an acquisition function
Minimize the acquisition function
6.4 Optimize all seven compiler parameters
Random search
A complete Bayesian optimization
7 Managing business metrics
7.1 Focus on the business
Don’t evaluate a model
Evaluate the product
7.2 Define business metrics
Be specific to your business
Update business metrics periodically
Business metric timescales
7.3 Trade off multiple business metrics
Reduce negative side effects
Evaluate with multiple metrics
8 Practical considerations
8.1 Violations of statistical assumptions
Violation of the iid assumption
Nonstationarity
 8.2 Don’t stop early
8.3 Control family-wise error
Cherry-picking increases the false-positive rate
Control false positives with the Bonferroni correction
8.4 Be aware of common biases
Confounder bias
Small-sample bias
Optimism bias
Experimenter bias
8.5 Replicate to validate results
Validate complex experiments
Monitor changes with a reverse A/B test
Measure quarterly changes with holdouts
8.6 Wrapping up
appendix A Linear regression and the normal equations
appendix B One factor at a time
appendix C Gaussian process regression
index
front matter

preface
When I first entered the industry, I had the training of a theoretician but
was presented with the tasks of an engineer. As a theoretician, I had
worked with models using pen-and-paper or simulation. Where the model
had a parameter, I—the theoretician—would try to understand how the
model would behave with different values of it. But now I—the engineer—
had to commit to a single value: the one to use in a production system.
How could I know what value to choose?

The short answer I received from more experienced practitioners was,

“Just try something.” In other words, experiment. This set me off on a
course of study of experimentation and experimental methods, with a
focus on optimizing engineered systems.

Over the years, the methods applied by the teams I have been on, and by
engineers in trading and technology generally, have become ever more
precise and efficient. They have been used to optimize the execution of
stock trades, market making, web search, online advertising, social media,
online news, low-latency infrastructure, and more. As a result, trade
execution has become cheaper and more fairly priced. Users regularly
claim that web search and social media recommendations are so good
that they worry their phones might be eavesdropping on them (they’re
not).

Statistics-based experimental methods have a relatively short history. Sir

R. A. Fisher published the seminal work, The Design of Experiments, in
1935—less than a century ago. In it he discussed the class of
experimental methods in which we’d place an A/B test (chapter 2). In
1941, H. Hotelling wrote the paper “Experimental determination of the
maximum of a function,” in which he discussed the modeling of a
response surface (chapter 4). Response surface methodology was further
explored by G. Box and K. P. Wilson. In 1947, A. Wald published the book
Sequential Analysis, which studies the idea of analyzing experimental data
measurement by measurement (chapter 3), rather than waiting until all
measurements are available (as you would in an A/B test).

While this research was being done, the methods were being applied in
industry: first in agriculture (Fisher’s methods), then in chemical and
process industries (response surface methods). Later (from the 1950s to
the 1980s) experimentation merged with statistical process control to give
us the quality movements in manufacturing, exemplified by Toyota’s Total
Quality Management, and later, popularized by Six Sigma.

From the 1990s onward, internet companies have experienced an

explosion of opportunity for experimentation as users have generated
views, clicks, purchases, likes—countless interactions—that could be easily
modified and measured with software on centralized web servers. In
2005, C.-C. Wang and S. R. Kulkarni wrote “Bandit problems with side
observations,” which combined sequential analysis and supervised
learning into a method now called a contextual bandit (chapter 5).

In 1975, J. Mockus wrote “On the Bayes methods for seeking the
extremal point,” the foundation for Bayesian optimization (chapter 6),
which takes an alternative approach to modeling a response surface and
combines it with ideas from sequential analysis. This method was
developed over the decades since by many researchers, including D.
Jones et al., who wrote “Efficient global optimization of expensive black-
box functions,” which, in 1998, applied some modern ideas to the method,
making it look much more like the approach presented in this book.

In 2017, Vasant Dhar asked me to talk to his Trading Strategies and

Systems class about high-frequency trading (HFT). He was gracious
enough to allow me to focus specifically on the experimental optimization
of HFT strategies. This was valuable to me because it gave me an
opportunity to organize my thoughts and understanding of the topic—to
pull together the various bits and pieces that I’d collected over the years.
Slowly, those notes have grown into this book.

I hope this book saves you some time by putting all the bits and pieces
I’ve collected in one place and stitching them together into a single,
coherent unit.
acknowledgments
I am grateful to so many people for their hard work, for their support, and
for their faith that this book could be brought into existence.

Thanks to Andrew Waldron, my acquisitions editor, for taking a chance on

my proposal and on me. And thanks to Marjan Bace for giving it the
thumbs-up.

Thanks to Katherine Olstein, my first development editor, for tirelessly

reading and rereading my drafts and providing invaluable feedback and
instruction.

Thank you to Karen Miller, my second development editor, and to Alain

Couniot for technical editing. Thank you to Bert Bates for great high-level
advice on writing a technical book, and to my technical proofreader,
Ninoslav Čerkez. Thanks also to Matko Hrvatin, MEAP coordinator; Melissa
Ice, development administrative support; Rebecca Rinehart, development
manager; Mihaela Batinić, review editor; and Rejhana Markanović,
development support.

Thanks to Professor Dhar for entrusting his students to me and my new

material. Thanks to Andy Catlin for believing that I could teach a brand-
new class based on an incomplete book. And thank you to my students
for being gracious beta testers and providing valuable, as-you’re-learning
feedback that I couldn’t have found anywhere else.

Several people sat with me for interviews. I appreciate the time and
support of P.B., B.S., M.M., and Yan Wu (of Bond).

Thank you to the many Manning Early Access Program (MEAP)

participants who bought the book before it was finished, asked great
questions, located errors, and made helpful suggestions.

To all the reviewers: Achim Domma, Al Krinker, Amaresh Rajasekharan,

Andrei Paleyes, Chris Heneghan, Dan Sheikh, Dimitrios Kouzis-Loukas, Eric
Platon, Guillermo Alcantara Gonzalez, Ikechukwu Okonkwo, Ioannis
Atsonios, Jeremy Chen, John Wood, Kim Falk, Luis Henrique Imagiire,
Marc-Anthony Taylor, Matthew Macarty, Matthew Sarmiento, Maxim
Volgin, Michael Kareev, Mike Jensen, Nick Vazquez, Oliver Korten, Patrick
Goetz, Richard Tobias, Richard Vaughan, Roger Le, Satej Kumar Sahu,
Sergio Govoni, Simone Sguazza, Steven Smith, William Jamir Silva, and
Xiangbo Mao; your suggestions helped make this a better book.

about this book

Experimentation for Engineers teaches readers how to improve
engineered systems using experimental methods. Experiments are run on
live production systems, so they need to be done efficiently and with care.
This book shows how.

Who should read this book

If you want to build things, you should also know how to evaluate them.
This book is for machine learning engineers, quantitative traders, and
software engineers looking to measure and improve the performance of
whatever they’re building. Performance of the systems they build may be
gauged by user behavior, revenue, speed, or similar metrics.

You might already be working with an experimentation system at a tech

or finance company and want to understand it more deeply. You might be
planning or aspiring to work with or build such a system. Students
entering industry might find that this book is an ideal introduction to
industry practices.

A reader should be comfortable with Python, NumPy, and undergraduate

math (including basic linear algebra).

How this book is organized: A road map

Experimentation for Engineers is loosely organized into three pieces: an
introduction (chapter 1), experimental methods (chapters 2-6), and
information that applies to all methods (chapters 7 and 8).

Chapter 1 motivates experimentation, describes how it fits in with

other engineering practices, and introduces business metrics.
Other documents randomly have
different content
 On Saturday, the 21st August, 1802, we went
with the General,[182] Ld. Robert,[183] and ST. CLOUD
Frederick,[184] and we took Charles to St. Cloud. It
was a palace belonging formerly to the Dukes of Orleans, but poor
Marie Antoinette liked it, and is accused of having exerted her royal
influence to compel the late Duke to sell it, which he did most
reluctantly. She was so partial to its beauties that she was profuse in
her expense to decorate it. In each taste the First Consul imitates
her, as he is so impatient to take possession that the surveyors are
obliged to make the men work all night; and he likes it so much that
no expense is spared to render it a fit residence for the Sovereign of
France. The gallery remains as it was finished by Gaston, Duke of
Orleans, Louis XIII’s brother; only on the panels some of the plunder
of Italy, which was in the Museum of the Louvre, has been placed,
much to their disadvantage, as the gaudy ceiling and rich gilding kills
the colouring of the pictures. They are capital; some of my old
acquaintances out of the Palais Pitti. The apartments that are fitted
up are done in le goût sévère, which, in other words, means a dark
and dingy style. The walls are hung with cloth, and draperies of cloth
edged with magnificent deep parti-coloured fringes are festooned
over it. The colours being generally dark green and brown produce a
solemn effect, and the whole has a sombre military appearance; the
rods of the curtains are finely polished spears. Where the Queen’s
apartments have been preserved, I admire them far beyond those in
the goût sévère, and prefer bright gilding to the heavy mahogany,
and a well-stuffed sofa to a small, hard one. In short, the exchange is
a bad one, les ris et les amours please me, broad cloth and sphinxes
do not. The Library is very pretty, and the books placed in very
appropriate cases, plain and simple, but at the same time rich and
decorated. The gardens are insignificant, but if the Consul continues
to like living there, I doubt not he will find means to extend them, tho’
as yet I only look upon St. Cloud as a halt on the road to Versailles.
On Sunday, ye next day, we went with a large party to Versailles,
where we expected to see the Eaux play, but we had been misled.
We dined at Le petit Trianon, formerly a favourite little palace of the
Queen’s, with a garden à l’Anglaise; but what I did admire indeed is
Le grand Trianon, a most noble palace. The centre, instead of a
corps-de-logis, is a peristyle composed of a double row of large
marble columns; the front to the garden is very large and grand, only
a rez-de-chaussée. The garden is thoroughly in the French style,
broad and spacious walks, fountains, alleys, cabinets de verdure; in
short, just what a garden should be near a large house.
We went from thence to Versailles. What a change from former
days! We walked along the Terrace, and so to the Orangerie, where
there are trees in tubs as large as any I ever saw growing either at
Nice or Naples in the common ground. One old tree they call
François Premier, and they add that it is 400 years old. It is
satisfactorily proved by a procès verbal that it belonged to the
Constable of Bourbon, and was confiscated with the rest of his
property, and so came to François I. Our party was numerous: Mr.
and Mrs. Fox, Ld. Robert, the General, Mr. Allen, Frederick
Ponsonby, Miss Adair, Heathcote, St. John, Trotter,[185] Smith (the
Petrarch of Carolina’s brother), Green.

The following is a list of those who dined with us at Paris in July,

August, and part of September, 1802.
 La Fayette, who is indebted to Bonaparte for his
liberty, has, since his return to his native country, LA FAYETTE
resided chiefly upon the small estate the
Revolution has not deprived him of at La Grange. Bonaparte affected
to consult the nation whether he should be Consul for life; was
answered by La Fayette, who wrote a gentle but able remonstrance
upon the subject. Bonaparte was little enough, when an army
promotion took place, to pass over La Fayette’s son and nephew; he
has, however, promoted them since. His son was educated in
Washington’s house, appears very amiable; he was just married.[186]
Andréossy[187] is the son of an obscure man of Italian origin,
employed by Riquet in the Languedoc Canal. He was born at
Castelnaudary, educated at Sorèze, and served under the ancien
régime as an engineer. He made some campaigns in Italy, went to
Egypt, was there employed upon an expedition to ye Lake
Menzalah, and returned in the vessel which brought the First Consul
to France. He has since been named to ye Embassy of England. He
lived very much with us. He is a plain Militaire in his manner, and if
he offends it will be unintentional, as he is disposed to maintain
peace and amity between the two countries.
Caffarelli,[188] brother of a general of the same name killed before
Acre. He is a fellow townsman and school companion of Andréossy,
and like him descended from an Italian family brought by Riquet to
work at the Canal. He is a remarkably displeasing person in his
manner, a sycophant and court echo of the ante-chamber of
Bonaparte; from love of order and morality always proclaiming that
the First Consul and his wife sleep in the same bed, and that the
domestic virtues of a warrior are more important than his heroic
deeds. In short, from him one collects the disgusting cant which is to
be employed by the present Governt. as a counterpoise to the wild
extravagant opinions of atheism and immorality set afloat under the
first constitution of the Republic.
Valence,[189] a general who served in the first campaigns under
Dumouriez, a good-humoured, boasting, bluff Papa.
 Mde. de V., daughter of Mde. de Sillery, a beauty on the wane,
pleasing and clever.
Abbé St. Fard, a son of the Duke of Orleans, father to the
unfortunate Égalité; remarkably obliging, and, tho’ not distinguished
for talents, very popular, and a person one cannot but like.
Duc de Duras,[190] a ci-devant Duc returned, but not reconciled to
the changes in his country.
Lally Tollendal,[191] the epitome of sentiment. By
some inconceivable freak imagined himself to be LALLY
the son of Count Lally, executed for the surrender TOLLENDAL
of Pondicherry. Whilst at college he heard the
story; his birth was obscure and even mysterious. A flight into the
region of fancy made him imagine himself the son of the state culprit
(but not till after his execution); he then pleaded for him. He is
returned to France after an absence of many years, but, like many
who were distinguished at first, he returns but to see his
insignificance and the indifference of the Governt. to these, many of
whom conceived themselves to be of the utmost importance.
Psse. d’Hesnin [sic], an excellent woman, formerly about the
Queen, attached for many years to Lally.
Mde. Flahaut.[192] A volume would not suffice. An agreeable
adventuress, who after failing in various projects, both upon English
and French, at last has closed her tempestuous career by marrying
Souza, ye Portuguese Minister. She has written some pretty novels;
her conversation consists more in a narrative of the good things she
has said than in those she actually does say. Her son, a fine, open
young man. He is handsome and uncommonly engaging in his
manners and countenance.
Girardin,[193] an élève of Jean Jacques, and proprietor of
Ermenonville. He was eager in the beginning of Revolution;
emigrated for a short time; is now a Tribune, and intimate friend of
Joseph Bonaparte’s. He is not an Emile, but good-natured. His love
of independence and the naked truth for the sake of truth will never
expose him to the straits a patriot must undergo. He will shift in time.
 Gallois,[194] a Tribune, uncommonly interesting in his manner, with
a countenance that proclaims his talents and gentle, amiable heart.
Abbé Morellet,[195] an old économiste. Sprightly, altho’ he is
turned of eighty.
Molé,[196] a descendant of the great President of that name. We
knew him well in England; a mild, gentlemanlike young man, very
unlike a young Frenchman.
Chevalier Acerbi,[197] an Italian Cisalpine. He travelled to North
Cape, and has published two 4to. vols. of his journey; a clever man,
great facility of languages.
Le Chevalier de la Bintinaye, nephew of the ci-devant Archbishop
of Bordeaux.
Marquise de Coigny, celebrated for her wit. Her daughter, a
charming girl.
Narbonne.[198] The scandalous chronicles of the
old Court report that he is the son of Mde. M. DE
Adélaïde of France. He is strikingly like the NARBONNE
Bourbons, but depraved as were the manners, it is
too repugnant to nature to credit the whole story. His conversation is
brilliant, full of lively sallies, and, upon the whole, he is one of the
most agreeable persons in society I ever met with. He was Minister
of War for a moment just after the King accepted the Constitution. He
is attached to Mde. de Staël, who has the most uncontrolled
dominion over his opinions and conduct. His person is a more
divided property. He used to be Talleyrand’s intimate friend, but Mde.
Grand, finding him averse to her elevation, by degrees broke the
friendship.
Ségur,[199] son of the Comte, a promising, rising young man,
married to Mde. d’Aguesseau’s daughter.
Young Ségur, a flippant lad, vain of having made under McDonald
a campaign, which he has written, and of having gone, by order of
Bonaparte, with more celerity than was ever done, from Paris to
Madrid and back again. Age and some well-directed rebuffs will be of
infinite service to him.
Mde. d’Aguesseau.
Jaucourt,[200] a Tribune. Under the days of the Court he was
distinguished for his galanterie and dévouement in affairs of intrigue.
There is a famous anecdote of his losing his thumb not to betray a
lady whose house he quitted by stealth at daybreak. The Swiss
heard a noise at the gate, and shut it with violence; Jaucourt’s thumb
was crushed, but he made no noise, and for many years the
adventure was secret. He is now married, according to the licence
allowed by the Revolution, to Mde. de la Châtre. He is an agreeable
man, she is clever.
Abbé Casti.[201] I will not do to him what an injudicious panegyrist
has done to Ariosto, whose epitaph is laden with an enumeration of
his works. Suffice it to say that his last work is inferior to all his
others—Gli animali parlanti, a poem as dull and as ill-conceived as
Dryden’s Hind and Panther. Those discuss polemical questions, and
Casti’s reason upon the abstract principles of Governt. He is very
old, and worn out by every species of debauchery and excess; his
eyes twinkle at times, and show a trace of his former life, but they
are but rare scintillations.
Rumford, ye Yankee philanthropist. I have often named him
elsewhere.
Le Chevalier,[202] a most cordial, warm-hearted,
zealous man. He travelled to the plain of Troy with M. LE
Sir Francis Burdett, and has written upon it, which CHEVALIER
has given rise to a fresh controversy. He is
employed au Bureau des relations extérieures, merely from
Talleyrand’s friendship for him. His language is not calculated to
obtain him promotion in his career, nor is he trusted with anything,
his place being a sinecure and more a pension than an employment.
Monteron,[203] [sic] one of the unfortunate Duke of Orléans’ set, a
complete mauvais sujet, but an agreeable vaurien. He was one of
the Dsse. de Fleury’s husbands, but has regained his liberty.
 Markoff,[204] the Russian Ambassador, a rusé diplomat, scurvily
treated by Bonaparte, who seems to make a point of saying
offensive things before him.
M. de Grave,[205] an obliging driveller.
Abbé Dillon, brother of the Beau Dillon,[206] &c. Knew him in Paris
in 1790, afterwards in Italy and England. A conceited bel esprit, with
too much pretensions.
Calonne. One may say of him as Johnson did of Garrick, that his
loss has removed a stock of harmless amusement from society. He
was delightful; with all the freshness and vivacity of youth, he had
the taste and refinement of riper years. Tho’ he allowed himself to
range in the regions of fancy, when he ought to have been restrained
by the strictness of veracity, yet he did it with such liveliness and wit
that one compounded for the lost fact in hearing the facetious story.
He was murdered by an unskilful physician a very short time after we
quitted Paris.
Talma,[207] the celebrated tragedian. His voice is bad, nor is his
conception of his part always correct. He is the person who has
introduced the severity and perfection of costume in the theatre. He
is not clever and not well informed.
Abbé Sicard,[208] the successor of Abbé de L’Épée. He brought
with him his most intelligent pupil Massieu. The pains he bestows
upon the unhappy objects confided to his care entitle him to much
praise; the lectures are worth seeing once, but to those who stand
not in need of this assistance are soon tedious.
Bertrand.[209] I knew him in Italy. He is a friend of Mde. d’Albany’s,
and belongs to the society of Mde. de Souza, Morellet, &c., &c. He is
declining fast; he was a lively man.
Charles de Noailles,[210] an uncommonly handsome man, son of
the Prince de Poix. He lived very much in England, and at one time
with the Prince, who grew jealous at Mrs. Fitzherbert’s partiality to
him, which occasioned their rupture. He has much more sense and
useful knowledge than one might suppose from a slight
acquaintance with him he possessed.
The English who dined with us were Mr. and
Mrs. Fox, Ld. Robert Adair, St. John, Mr. Trotter, ENGLISH IN
Mr. Clarke, Green, Heathcote, Kemble, Pinkerton, PARIS
Fitzpatrick, 2 Erskines, Mr. Merry, Lens, Abbé
Roberts, Banks, Mrs. H. Fox, Mr. Neave, Miss Townshend, Mr.
Parish, St. Leger, Tuyle, Warner, Francis, A. St. Leger, Capt. Jones,
Jerningham. We dined twice at Sieyès; once at Cambacères’s and
Lucchesini’s; often at Talleyrand’s; once at Versailles with the
Caumonts and Andréossys.
The Hollands left Paris on September 20, 1802, for a tour in the
South of France and Spain. They did not return to England till April
1805. The Journal continues until April 8, but is omitted from these
pages.
July 24th, 1806.—The Russians have made a separate peace.
[211] The Cabinet have determined upon sending a person upon an
extraordinary Mission to Portugal, and have chosen Lauderdale for
that purpose, and he has accepted. Ld. St. Vincent is to follow with
the fleet, and be joined in the Commission; the nature of the
appointment to be the same as Ld. Minto and Ld. Hood were at
Toulon. It is proposed, if Portugal be invaded, that we should carry
off (vi et armis) the Royal family, and such as choose to follow their
fortunes, and establish them at Brésil. A French army of 90,000 men
is assembled at Bayonne for the invasion of Portugal. Eugène
Beauharnais, the Viceroy of Italy, is to have the command of it; the
attack is to be made by Galicia.
25th.—The preliminaries of peace between
France and Russia have been signed by d’Oubril, NEGOTIATION
though he knew at the time that Basilico was on S FOR PEACE
his road to Paris with dispatches from our Governt.
He signed three hours after he knew of his landing at Boulogne. The
following stipulations form the basis of the peace. The Russians are
to return Corfu, but they are not to keep more than 4000 men in
garrison there. Dalmatia and Ragusa are left to the French. The
Montenegrins are not to be punished for the successful resistance
which, in conjunction with the Russians, they have opposed to the
French arms, but this amnesty does not extend to any offences
which they may have committed against their lawful Sovereign. Sicily
is left exposed to the French without a stipulation in its favour. No
provision of any sort is made for the ex-King of Naples, nor is there
any allusion to him in the Treaty, except a declaration on the part of
the French that they have no objection to the King of Sicily et sa
femme (they will not call her Queen) finding an asylum wherever
they can. By a secret article, Minorca, Majorca, and Iviza are to be
transferred from Spain to the D. of Calabria, on condition that the
ports of these islands shall be shut against the English. The
Russians agree to exclude the English from all their ports in the
Mediterranean. The French are to be allowed six months[212] to
evacuate Germany. The present Treaty must be ratified within
twenty-five days.
On the day following this extraordinary transaction, Ld.
Yarmouth[213] presented his credentials to the F. Governt., though
his instructions were not to present them at all, till the basis of the
pacification was settled. This step of Ld. Y.’s is very reprehensible,
as it may give d’Oubril a pretext to justify his conduct.
The terms of peace originally offered by
Talleyrand and conveyed to Mr. Fox by Ld. Y. were NEGOTIATION
very advantageous to this country; indeed, so S FOR PEACE
extremely so, that as the proposals were verbally
made, much doubt was entertained of Ld. Y.’s accuracy in reporting
them, and he owed entirely his being employed in the negotiation to
the doubts of his veracity. The uti possidetis on both sides was to be
the basis of the treaty. Hanover was to be restored to the K. of E., in
return for our acknowledgment of Bonaparte’s newly-created Kings.
No further changes were to be made in Germany or Switzerland.
The integrity of Spain and Portugal was to be guaranteed in both
Hemispheres. We were not to interfere with the settlement of Italy or
Holland. Upon a distant hint being thrown out about commercial
arrangements, ‘Nous voulons être maîtres chez nous’ was the reply.
When Sicily was mentioned, Talleyrand, who had spoken the above,
exclaimed, ‘Mais que voulez vous? Vous l’avez.’ Our Cabinet readily
assented to these terms (in addition to which it was hinted that
Bonaparte was disposed to concur with Mr. F. in taking measures for
the general abolition of the Slave Trade, but this was intended as a
sneer. When Talleyrand read the resolutions of the H. of Commons
upon the subject of the S. Trade, he said there was another Act of
Parliament much more necessary, one for which the Spaniards,
Portuguese, and Germans called out most loudly, ‘Et cette acte du
Parlement, c’est la paix’), and Ld. Y. was sent back to Paris with full
assent to his message. But when he arrived there he found the
views of the French Governt. materially changed in the most
important point. They now demanded that Sicily should be ceded to
them in order to be re-annexed to the kingdom of Naples. Joseph,
the new King, had represented that his kingdom of Naples would not
be secure without the possession of Sicily, and the French engineers
had given in a report that Sicily could be subdued with much more
ease than they had at first supposed. On these grounds, which the
French have the assurance to represent as new occurrences since
their first overtures to Ld. Y., they pretend to justify their deviation
from their original proposals, and they offered to the King of Sicily, in
exchange for that island, to make him King of Dalmatia and Albania.
[214] D’Oubril, the Russian negotiator, who was by this time at Paris,
and who had been privy to everything done by our Cabinet, was
caught by this last proposal, and expressed his opinion decidedly in
favour of it. In the cession of Dalmatia to the King of Sicily, he
fancied that he saw the elevation of power which would remove the
French to a greater distance from the frontiers of Turkey, and prove
in future a bulwark against the extension of their empire in that
quarter. He was ready, as Mr. Fox observed, to sacrifice a well-
understood English object to an ill-defined Russian one. This
modification of the original project was received here with great
disappointment and ill-humour, and was considered as a breach of
faith on the part of the French. We contended that no event had
happened which could justify any departure from the first proposals.
We could not consent to transfer Albania from its present
possessors, who were the friends and allies of England, in order to
make compensation to the K. of Sicily for the loss of his dominions,
which it was equally our interest and our duty to defend. Dalmatia
alone was not to be mentioned as an equivalent for Sicily. But to
show our disposition to accommodate matters, it was at length
proposed as a compromise, that Dalmatia should be given to the
King of Sardinia, with the title of King; and since the new K. of
Naples was desirous to have a greater extent of sea-coast, that
Sardinia, together with the other Spanish Islands of Majorca, &c.,
should be added to his kingdom; Sicily on no account could we yield.
The Minute which Mr. Fox drew up for the Cabinet, in which he
states his reasons compressed into 8 or 10 sentences, is the most
able summary ever penned.
In this state of the negotiation, d’Oubril, who a few days before
had reminded Mr. Fox of the expression of ‘piano piano,’ which he
had used in his letter to Czartorisky upon the Grand Confederacy
forming last year, signed the peace, the outline of which I have just
noted. His excuse for this conduct is said to be the danger to which
Russia would be exposed, if they were to persuade Turkey and
compel Austria to join in a coalition against her. Austria is so much
reduced that she must comply with whatever France demands, and
French influence domineers at Constantinople. But these are not
supposed to be the true reasons for his conduct. The late changes in
the private councils of St. Petersburg are suspected to have had a
greater share in determining him, and it is even said that, on the
strength of those, he has ventured to take this important step without
instructions from his Court. He says, ‘He is gone back to lay his
Treaty and head at the feet of his Master.’
Czartorisky,[215] the late Minister of Russia, is a Pole of great
consideration and high rank in Poland. He owed his elevation to the
partiality of the Empress, who was passionately in love with him. He
afterwards became a favourite with Alexander; he played the truant
to his mistress, who was for a length of time quite inconsolable at his
infidelities. The Empress is with child at present.
26th.—It is determined to send a military man to
Portugal, and Ld. Rosslyn[216] has been fixed upon MISSION TO
for the mission. Ld. H. immediately proposed to PORTUGAL
him to take Brougham, if he had any person in a
civil capacity. He promised to propose him to Ld. Grenville. There is
an idea of employing Dumouriez.
Sr. Sidney Smith has taken the Isle of Capri, and the French have
been worsted in several encounters in Calabria. Hopes are
entertained that we shall be able to defend Sicily against the French,
with the aid alone of the Sicilians. The Queen and Duke of Calabria,
who are surrounded by persons suspected of being secretly in the
French interest, are eager for carrying the war into Calabria.
Great dissatisfaction at Ld. Yarmouth’s conduct, and another
negotiator must go. Ld. Holland not being able to leave his uncle,
Lauderdale, as the next best person, is to go. It is a sad mortification,
as it has long been the darling hope of uncle and nephew; but it
would be impossible to go, as Ld. H., besides being useful, is also
one of the greatest comforts to Mr. Fox. Mr. F. so ill that none of the
last transactions of the preceding three days have been
communicated to him.
27th July.—Mr. Fox stronger, and in better spirits to-day, but there
is no material change in his complaint. The news of the Russian
Treaty, and the determination of sending Lauderdale to Paris, were
communicated to him by Ld. Howick. Upon hearing that L. was to go
to Paris, he exclaimed, ‘Why does not Holland go?’ Ld. Howick was
perplexed, and stammered by way of excuse the ‘suddenness of the
departure’; upon which Fox said, ‘Oh, I understand you!’ and
immediately changed the subject. When he saw Ld. Holland about
an hour afterwards, he began with saying, ‘So, young one, you won’t
go to Paris’; on Ld. Holland’s answering that he preferred staying, as
he thought he was a comfort to him, he caught his hand and said,
with great emotion, ‘Yes, a comfort indeed,’ and was for several
minutes quite overcome and shedding tears. This circumstance is
the first event which has given him any apprehension about his own
danger.
D’Oubril has written to Stroganoff[217] that he
signed the preliminaries with Ld. Yarmouth’s LORD
approbation. Ld. Yarmouth in his dispatches says YARMOUTH’S
CONDUCT
quite the contrary. Copies of the letters have been
sent to St. Petersburg. Our Ministers are greatly displeased with Ld.
Yarmouth for having presented his credentials the very day after
d’Oubril signed, and are not without fear that he may be bullied or
won into signing the preliminaries without further instructions. There
are some unpleasant suspicions afloat about Ld. Y., especially upon
the score of stock-jobbing.[218] General Clarke[219] is the person
named to negotiate with him; he was employed upon d’Oubril’s
business. The French already show a disposition since the signature
of the Russian Treaty, to rise in their demands. They have thrown out
hints that they expect St. Lucia and Tobago to be restored to them,
and Ld. Y. has of his own head suggested that Cuba should be
ceded to the King of Naples, who cannot be reduced to live as a
fugitive or subject in the dominions of his son. Ld. Y. is suspected of
concealments in his report of his negotiations. A messenger went off
instructing him not to proceed in any way, but wait L.’s arrival.
Notwithstanding their displeasure, Ld. Y. has been joined in the
Commission with Ld. Lauderdale.
28th.—Mr. Fox nearly in the same state; his spirits are good, and
he has still great hopes of recovery. He said this morning, ‘I hope my
recovery is not so desperate as peace.’ The news from Paris is
every day less favourable, so much that hints have been thrown out
to Ld. Yarmouth about the restitution of Pondicheri and Surinam, and
the other Dutch colonies in S. America, about the expulsion of the
French Princes from England, and a restraint upon the licence of the
journals. Ministers are much more discontented with Ld. Y. L. has
been told in the most explicit manner by the Cabinet, that if he finds
anything in Ld. Y.’s conduct to disapprove of, he has only to give a
hint, and he shall be recalled.
Bonaparte is elated beyond his usual tone of insolence since he
procured the Russian Treaty; he sent for the Austrian Chargé
d’Affaires, and ordered him to signify to his master that he must lay
aside the title of Emperor of Germany, and yield the precedence to
France, and that he must assent to and recommend the alterations
in the constitution of the Empire, which were proposed to be held at
Frankfort on the 10th August. The Chargé d’Affaires pleaded that he
durst not convey such a message to his Sovereign. ‘Pourquoi votre
maître ne m’envoye-t’-il pas un ambassadeur, et pas un misérable
parlementaire?’
29th.—Professor Dugald Stewart, who has just arrived from
Edinburgh, is to go with L. to Paris. Gaeta is taken, and Sr. Sidney
has met with some check in the kingdom of Naples.[220] L. had a
conversation alone with Mr. F., in which he opened himself freely. He
said he wished to retire from office till he got better, and to have Ld.
H., whom he had always destined ultimately to succeed him,
appointed to fill his place pro tempore, adding that he had been
thinking of this for some time, but that he had put it off in the hope of
being able to sign the peace before he retired. He bid L. ‘open the
matter to Ld. Grenville,’ and added that he ‘would talk further on the
subject to Ld. Grenville in 8 or 10 days.’ In a conversation which L.
had with Ld. Grenville some time ago, during which they talked of Mr.
Fox’s situation and of the small prospect of any amendment in his
health, Ld. Grenville said, ‘That he hoped his own conduct had been
such as to satisfy Mr. Fox’s friends since the period of their being
connected together, and if that disastrous calamity should happen,
and most disastrous indeed would it be for the country, he trusted,
they would have no reason to be dissatisfied with any future
arrangements that might take place.’
Sheridan, who dined here to-day, begged to talk to me privately.
He said that it was the wish of many of Fox’s friends, whenever the
state of his health should make it impossible for him to attend to the
duties of his office, that Ld. H. should be appointed his successor;
that such an appointment would be regarded by them as a pledge
that the Whig Party was still to be kept up, and its principles
maintained; that the Prince was very eager to have them carried into
effect; that he had spoken to Windham, who seemed to listen with
satisfaction. That he, ‘from delicacy, spoke to me instead of to Ld. H.,
and begged I would communicate the substance of them to him,’ He
told me that George Byng and the second-rate sort of politicians
were very eager upon the subject.
Cline, the surgeon, has seen Mr. Fox, and declares himself ready
to perform the operation whenever the physicians shall judge it
expedient, as he does not see any reason to think the result more
formidable to Mr. F. than to any other person.
Ld. Howick is full of plans for an Administration,
in the event of Mr. Fox’s retirement, or worse. He A SUCCESSOR
takes for granted that neither the General or Ld. TO FOX
Fitzwilliam would choose to remain in office if F.
were away. He would, in that case, make Whitbread Secretary at
War, himself S. for the Home Department, Tom Grenville the
Admiralty, Tierney the Board of Control, Ld. H., of course, the
Foreign Office; and, said I, ‘Pray where do you put Lauderdale, ye
first, greatest, and best lord?’
31st.—Lauderdale had an interview with Ld. Grenville, and
repeated the substance of his late conversation with Mr. F.; Ld. G.
listened with great attention, but made no reply. Just as L. went out,
he called him back to beg that he would say to Ld. H. that, ‘He had
many times abstained from going to Stable Yard, from an
apprehension that if Mr. Fox should know he was there, he might
suppose he was come upon business and make an effort to see him,
which might do him harm; but that if he followed the dictates of his
own inclination, he should be there every day,’ Tierney and Ld.
Morpeth have both expressed to me very strongly their wishes and
the necessity that Ld. H. should be the locum tenens for his uncle.
1st August.—Ld. Rosslyn has written a letter on the subject of his
Mission to Portugal, from which it appears he is not inclined to
undertake the services assigned to him. When Admiral Markham
read it, he observed upon it that, ‘Ld. St. Vincent, when he sees this,
will say the fellow has got dung at his heart.’ Not a very elegant or
delicate mode of expression!
It is said that Spain is disposed to a war with France, in
consequence of their having discovered that a plan of partitioning
Spain is in agitation, by which Estremadura and Galicia are to be
annexed to Portugal, and made into a kingdom for the Prince of the
Peace,[221] while the rest of Spain is to be given to one of B.’s
brothers.
 Mr. Goddard (Ld. Henry Spencer’s friend) arrived this evening
from Paris with passports for Lauderdale. When the passport was
required, Bonaparte exclaimed, ‘What! another passport! Have they
not a blank one already? But this is of a piece with the whole of their
conduct during the negotiation; delay, delay is their object.’ ‘But will
you grant them the passport?’ ‘Yes, and for twenty more if they
choose.’
2nd.—Lauderdale set off for Paris this evening, with Professor
Stewart, and Mr. Maddison from the Post Office. Ld. H. gave him a
letter to Serra and Prince Masserano.[222]
Mr. Fox better; Vaughan said this morning that there was a greater
assemblage of favourable symptoms than there had been any day
since he attended.
Sheridan came here in the evening, and talked
over his schemes. He enlarged greatly upon the SHERIDAN’S
state in which the House of Commons would be INTRIGUES
left if Mr. Fox were removed from it; deplored the
unpopularity of Ld. Howick, and seemed to insinuate that Petty had
been tried and found unfit for the task.[223] He has some project, all
founded upon his enmity to Ld. Howick and hereditary suspicion of
Ld. Henry, to try and rouse Ld. H.’s old partiality for Canning, and get
him and Perceval into the Administration.
3rd.—Mr. Fox not quite so well.
4th.—Mr. Fox in high spirits, and talks confidently of meeting Parlt.
in October; approves of an early session in time of war. He has not
the slightest expectation of peace, and expects Lauderdale’s
immediate return.
5th.—When Bonaparte was told that L. was coming, he said,
‘Comment! on m’envoye un ancien Jacobin.’ D’Oubril had been shut
up for 14 hours with General Clarke, before he signed the
Preliminaries. It is a dexterous way of carrying a point, to weary out a
man’s physical strength, to tame him like a wild beast, to carry your
purpose. The pretext was to carry the business through rapidly.
 Ali Pacha[224] of Janina has sent a letter which he received from
Bonaparte, all written in his own hand, inviting him to form a
connection with France. Ali observed he had never received such a
mark of respect and confidence from the English. Bonaparte is
steady and indefatigable in all his undertakings.
6th.—Ld. Grenville has proposed to Ld. H. that he should be one
of the Commissioners for settling the points in dispute between this
country and the U. States of America.[225] Ld. Auckland, as
President of the Board of Trade, is to be the other Commissioner.
The Americans are Messrs. Monroe[226] and Pinckney.[227] Ld.
Howick and others consider this as a delicate opening on the part of
Ld. G. to show his readiness to comply with the intimation he had
recently had from Mr. F. through Lauderdale.
The operation is to be to-morrow.
7th.—The operation was performed this morn.; Cline and Hawkins
did it. Sixteen quarts of amber-coloured water was drawn off; he
bore the operation perfectly well, his pulse very little affected, and no
disposition to faintness.
8th.—Not so well from nausea and lowness.
Ld. H. has accepted the appointment of Commissioner. Mr. Eden
is the Secretary (by a shabby artifice of his father’s), Mr. Allen the
Assistant-Secretary.
It has been proposed to Tierney to go to Lisbon in the capacity in
which Ld. Rosslyn was to have gone. T.’s intimacy with Ld. St.
Vincent made him be thought of for the service. Ld. St. V. is to follow
with a squadron for carrying off, if necessary, the Portuguese fleet to
the Azores, and for transporting the Prince Regent and his friends to
Brazil. T. is disinclined, and has refused.
9th.—Ld. Grenville sent for Ld. Rosslyn late last
night and renewed his former proposal of sending LAUDERDALE’
him to Lisbon. Ld. R. has accepted, and is to set S MISSION
off to-night. The Commissioners are Lds. Rosslyn,
St. V., and General Simcoe;[228] and, to my great satisfaction, Mr.
Brougham.
10th.—Mr. Fox continues very low; a great flow from ye wound,
the anasarca diminishes fast.
12th.—No messenger from Paris. It is suspected that some
artifice is used to delay the messengers, in order to prolong the
negotiation, it being a matter of importance to France to keep up the
appearance of a negotiation with England till the changes she
meditates in Germany are completed.
14th.—Messengers in. Immediately on L.’s
arrival he presented to the F. Governt. a short NEGOTIATION
recapitulation of what had already passed during S FOR PEACE
the negotiation, recalling to their recollection that
the principle on which the E. Governt. had consented to treat was
the uti possidetis, and reminding them how much this had been
forgotten and departed from in their late demands, and concluding
with the alternative, either to resume the uti possidetis as the
principle of the Treaty, or to send him passports to return to England.
[229] Three days elapsed before any answer was given to this note.
General Clarke proposed that the business should be carried on by
conversations, and not by written notes, which was refused. He also
cavilled at some expressions in L.’s note, but at length presented a
note couched in rather a high tone, complaining that when the Treaty
was far advanced, and that Ld. Yarmouth was on the point of
signing, L. should have been sent over to make inadmissible
pretensions and to disappoint the hopes which all Europe had
conceived of peace. The uti possidetis could not be the basis of the
Treaty, unless the Emperor were to be replaced in the possession of
Fiume, Treviso, and of all the conquests which he had renounced by
the Peace of Presburg. Upon this L. sent for his passports. Three
days were employed in sending from one office to another to obtain
them, without success. M. de Lima (the Portuguese) called upon
him, and implored in the most earnest manner that he would not
break off the negotiation, as this would leave Portugal and Spain
exposed to certain and immediate destruction. No effect being
produced by this manœuvre, and L. persisting in his demand of
passports, a 2nd note was sent, expressed in much more civil and
moderate language, and tho’ denying that the uti possidetis had ever
been admitted as the basis of the Treaty, and declaring that without
great modifications it was inadmissible, but concluding with these
words, ‘Mais l’Empereur l’adopte puisqu’il le trouve.’ It is remarkable
that in this note the word adopte was substituted in the Emperor’s
own handwriting, in place of accepte or admet. And in the date, the
11th had been inserted instead of the 7th, which had been the
original date, so that the note had been detained some days, in
hopes of Lauderdale’s yielding. On receiving this, L. addressed a
note to the French Governt., in which, without taking any notice of
the contents of theirs, he declared he could not go on with the
negotiation, unless he had an explicit assurance from them that he
should have passports at any time within half an hour, for himself or
couriers, whenever he should chance to demand them. This note
produced a very civil answer from Talleyrand, ascribing to accident
entirely the blame of the former delay, and assuring him that it was in
no respect owing to any want of civility to him. Lauderdale returned a
second note, in answer to the former one, that he could not negotiate
further, unless the uti possidetis[230] was distinctly admitted to be the
basis of the Treaty, and that every deviation from it should be
considered as an exception from the general basis of the peace.
Things were in this state when Basilico was sent away.
Ministers, especially Ld. Grenville, are extremely pleased with L.’s
conduct, particularly in his note on the subject of passports, after he
received the second note from General Clarke. A Council was held
immediately, in which it was determined to recall Ld. Yarmouth, and
Basilico was sent back in the evening with an order to that effect.
The reason for this measure:—1st, d’Oubril’s account and Ld.
Yarmouth’s of the conclusion of the Russian Treaty are in flat
contradiction. D’Oubril has written to Stroganoff that he signed the
article with Ld. Yarmouth’s knowledge and approbation. 2ndly, Ld.
Yarmouth seems to have spent some weeks at Talleyrand’s country
house last autumn, tho’ he gave Ministry to understand that he was
hardly acquainted with him. 3rdly, Ly. Yarmouth is very much
connected with Monteron,[231] an agent of Talleyrand’s, and
employed in his office.
Favourable accounts of the disposition of the new Russian
Governt. towards this country; Stroganoff has received letters to that
effect from the new Prime Minister, Budberg,[232] in which he
expresses very strongly Alexander’s high opinion as well as his
confidence in Mr. Fox. Stroganoff thinks Russia will not ratify
d’Oubril’s preliminaries.
Ld. Granville Leveson arrived this day from Petersburg, dined
here, and is looking handsomer than ever. I have not seen him these
four years.[233]
American Commissioners very amicable; disposed to settle the
differences, and to conclude a Treaty of Commerce between the two
countries.
20th.—Ld. Howick dissatisfied with Sr. J. Borlase Warren, who
lost three days after he got orders to sail, and wasted three more at
Madeira, instead of going straight to ye W. Indies, by which Jerome
may escape.[234] Alderman Prinsep did not know how to open the
Stock Exchange.
Alas! Mr. Fox begins to fill again; they talk of another operation in
three weeks.
Lauderdale is abused at Paris, and represented as having
deserted Fox. Goldsmid is supposed to be Ld. Yarmouth’s agent in
the Stock Exchange, and to have transacted business for him to a
great amount. Narbonne was admonished not to visit L. so
frequently, Fouché sent for him to that purpose. Emperor gone to
hunt, his Ministers rejoice at his absence whilst in so violent a mood;
they call him bête féroce.
Second operation performed on Sunday. Bore
the operation extremely well; less water taken from FOX’S HEALTH
him than on the former occasion, but he was more
completely emptied. Some pints of water which had remained in ye
abdomen were drawn off; fell soon after into a state of languor and