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Inference and Learning from Data
Volume II
This extraordinary three-volume work, written in an engaging and rigorous style by a
world authority in the field, provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the
full spectrum of mathematical and statistical techniques underpinning contemporary
methods in data-driven learning and inference.
This second volume, Inference, builds on the foundational topics established in
Volume I to introduce students to techniques for inferring unknown variables and
quantities, including Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, max-
imum likelihood, variational inference, hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks,
and reinforcement learning.
A consistent structure and pedagogy is employed throughout this volume to
reinforce student understanding, with over 350 end-of-chapter problems (including
solutions for instructors), 180 solved examples, almost 200 figures, datasets, and
downloadable Matlab code. Supported by sister volumes Foundations and Learning,
and unique in its scale and depth, this textbook sequence is ideal for early-career
researchers and graduate students across many courses in signal processing, machine
learning, statistical analysis, data science, and inference.
A L I H . S AY E D
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
University of California at Los Angeles
Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8EA, United Kingdom
One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006, USA
477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia
314–321, 3rd Floor, Plot 3, Splendor Forum, Jasola District Centre, New Delhi – 110025, India
103 Penang Road, #05–06/07, Visioncrest Commercial, Singapore 238467
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/highereducation/isbn/9781009218269
DOI: 10.1017/9781009218245
© Ali H. Sayed 2023
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions
of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take
place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press & Assessment.
First published 2023
Printed in the United Kingdom by Bell and Bain Ltd
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
ISBN - 3 Volume Set 978-1-009-21810-8 Hardback
ISBN - Volume I 978-1-009-21812-2 Hardback
ISBN - Volume II 978-1-009-21826-9 Hardback
ISBN - Volume III 978-1-009-21828-3 Hardback
Additional resources for this publication at www.cambridge.org/sayed-vol2.
Cambridge University Press & Assessment has no responsibility for the persistence
or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this
publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will
remain, accurate or appropriate.
In loving memory of my parents
Contents
VOLUME I FOUNDATIONS
Preface page xxvii
P.1 Emphasis on Foundations xxvii
P.2 Glimpse of History xxix
P.3 Organization of the Text xxxi
P.4 How to Use the Text xxxiv
P.5 Simulation Datasets xxxvii
P.6 Acknowledgments xl
Notation xlv
1 Matrix Theory 1
1.1 Symmetric Matrices 1
1.2 Positive-Definite Matrices 5
1.3 Range Spaces and Nullspaces 7
1.4 Schur Complements 11
1.5 Cholesky Factorization 14
1.6 QR Decomposition 18
1.7 Singular Value Decomposition 20
1.8 Square-Root Matrices 22
1.9 Kronecker Products 24
1.10 Vector and Matrix Norms 30
1.11 Perturbation Bounds on Eigenvalues 37
1.12 Stochastic Matrices 38
1.13 Complex-Valued Matrices 39
1.14 Commentaries and Discussion 41
Problems 47
1.A Proof of Spectral Theorem 50
1.B Constructive Proof of SVD 52
References 53
2 Vector Differentiation 59
2.1 Gradient Vectors 59
2.2 Hessian Matrices 62
viii Contents
3 Random Variables 68
3.1 Probability Density Functions 68
3.2 Mean and Variance 71
3.3 Dependent Random Variables 77
3.4 Random Vectors 93
3.5 Properties of Covariance Matrices 96
3.6 Illustrative Applications 97
3.7 Complex-Valued Variables 106
3.8 Commentaries and Discussion 109
Problems 112
3.A Convergence of Random Variables 119
3.B Concentration Inequalities 122
References 128
12. For some time he was under another mistake. He was even
to an extreme, negligent of his apparel, thinking it was below the
character of a Christian, to have any, the least concern about it. But
afterwards he was clearly convinced, that in this also he had gone
too far, and that a Christian ought even by his outward neatness, to
shew forth the purity of his mind.
13. The last great temptation into which he fell, was that of
denying to the body even what was necessary for its support.
Though he worked hard at his own business, and spent his strength
very much, in all the intervals of his work, in going up and down and
exhorting the societies, he could not be prevailed on to take any
cordial, or any thing for the preserving of his lungs. For a
considerable time before he was sick, he wholly abstained from
flesh. And even other victuals he took at his father’s table, as if he
was stealing it; and it seemed by his manner, as if he seldom or
never eat so as to satisfy nature. The error of this was not shewed
him, till a day or two before he was taken ill: when he was fully
convinced, that seeing the body as well as the soul is committed to
our charge, we ought with prudence and moderation to use all
proper means, for preserving the one as well as the other.
16. About nine his mother and I came to him, and he said,
“mother, you are troubled about many things. I know you have a
great cross now sickness is in the house, over and above the care of
this large family. Father, you must bear your part. There is a want in
you both. You are religious singly: But you are not free in confessing
your faults and temptations one to another. It would be a great help,
if you would set apart a time for this, for the family in general, once
a week. God has made you an instrument of keeping his little flock
together in this place. I believe you do it with all your heart. Let us
do it chearfully, and he will greatly bless us all.”
19. Three of the leaders of classes coming in, he said, “We have
been neglectful in one thing, in not going more diligently after
backsliders, and bringing back the sheep that were lost. O it is a
great thing, to bring one soul unto the Lord! Let me desire you to
remember it for the time to come.” One of them asked, “Shall I pray
for you?” He said, “Yes: but do not pray for my recovery.” After
praying, he asked, “How do you find yourself now?” He said, “Clear
of doubt: full of God.”
20. The man coming to him who used to work with him in the
shop, he said, “John, how is the case between God and your soul?
Of late you have not been so earnest as you was. Why do you not
join in the society? I believe you are kept from outward sin. But that
will not do.” A few days after the man came to me, desiring to be
admitted into the society, and saying, “He hoped the words would
never go out of his mind, and that he should never rest till he knew
the Lord.”
And catch’d the two next from her, repeating with triumph,
26. The next morning, Saturday 16. his sweats stopped. All
proper means were used to recover them. He said, “I believe they
will not return. But I have left all to God. My heart is full of God. I
know he will appear the second time, without sin, unto salvation.”
After lying a short time he broke out into vehement prayer, first
for the church, and then for himself: crying out aloud, “Open the
heavens, O my God, and come down into my soul! Come, Father,
Son and Holy Ghost, and plunge me into God! Carry me ye angels,
to the bosom of my God. Bear me to the feet of Jesus!” Then with
smiles of triumph, not to be exprest, he cried, “Jesus is coming! Now
I shall see the unclouded face of Jesus! ’Tis finish’d! ’Tis finish’d!
Jesus is come! Jesus is come!
“For us is prepar’d
*One called aloud to his mother to come. He said, “You may call;
but God will not stop one moment.” He spake no more till he
resigned his spirit into the hands of God.
A short A C C O U N T
Of the L I F E and D E A T H of
NATHANAEL
O T H E N,
Who was shot in Dover-Castle, October 26, 1757.
7. But we had scarce lost sight of land two hours, when another
violent storm arose. I then renewed the good resolutions I made in
the last, and which I forgot almost as soon as I had made them. It
blew exceeding hard; however on April 9, we came with great
difficulty to Leith. When we were safe on shore, instead of returning
God thanks, I soon fell to my old trade of drunkenness: and during
our several removes, I continually plunged deeper and deeper into
all manner of wickedness.
8. After being at several other places we marched to Glasgow,
where I met with a sober woman, and one that feared God, whom I
married and lived comfortably with, till orders came for my remove
to England. We past the winter at Dover, where the advice of my
wife made such an impression upon me, that I began to take up,
and be a good husband, and worked hard to maintain myself and
her. So I continued to do at Exeter, where I had a son born, and
stayed eleven months. Thence we marched to Plymouth, where we
embarked for Minorca. We landed there May 25, and I lived happy
with my wife for two months. Then both she and my child were
taken sick and died. This was a loss indeed! I believe if she had
lived, it would have been the saving of my life.
9. After her death I soon fell back to drunkenness, and to supply
the expence of it, took to coining. The next spring, April 20, the
French invested the castle of St. Philip. Toward the end of the siege,
my companion and I got drunk together and quarrelled: upon which
he threatened to inform against me, for which a great reward was
offered. Being soon after told that he was gone to give information,
I thought there was but one way to save my life. So I and he that
told me determined to desert together. In getting out of the castle, I
fell into the sea, and was very near being drowned. With much
difficulty we then got to an old house, and took shelter therein. But
we were between the fire of the French and the English; so we
stayed not above a quarter of an hour. I would now fain have
returned; but our case was desperate: so we went on hand in hand.
As we advanced, the French gave the signal, which was three slaps
with their hand on the cartouch-box. As we did not answer it, or
speak, (for neither of us could speak French) they immediately fired
upon us. But here also the hand of God was over us. The shot all
flew over our heads. They then came and took us to the
commanding officer, who sent us to the town as prisoners. In the
morning we were removed to a prison near one of the general’s
quarters, who sent for us about noon, and asked, what our design
was? I answered, it was our desire to go into France and work. He
said, “this could not be allowed by any means, unless I first serv’d in
the army for three years.” I said, I would only comply, on condition I
should not serve on the island, he replied, if I would not serve on
the island, I must go back to prison, I was going, but he called me
back and ask’d, “in what regiment in France would you like to
serve?” I answer’d in Fitz-James’s. He said, I should. However for
the present, I was remanded to prison. Two days after I was carried
before the Duke de Richlieu, who asked me many questions. But I
continued a prisoner during the whole siege, and was so, till we
came to Valenciennes.
10. Here I was enlisted into Fitz-James’s horse, and continued
two months: but with an aking heart. I longed to be in England
again, and only waited for an opportunity. This was suspected: so
that when we marched hence, I was confined every night, till we got
a great way into France. By interceding with the quarter-master, I
then got my liberty. After many removes, we marched to Hanau, and
from thence about thirty leagues toward Muscovy. Here four of us
agreed to desert the next night, and make the best of our way to
the Duke of Cumberland’s army. At eleven we set out in thunder,
lightning and rain. We took each of us a brace of pistols, with our
swords, and plenty of powder and ball. With great difficulty we past
the guards, and then not knowing the roads, quickly lost our way: so
that at break of day, we had got but nine miles. However we were
now got into the right road: but day-light approaching, we went into
a wood, and stayed there till six in the evening: having been all this
time without victuals, we were weak and faint; however we walk’d
all night. In the morning we learn’d from a waggoner, that a party of
French horse were within a mile and a half of us. We ask’d what he
thought they came there for? He said he knew not unless it was to
look for deserters. Upon this, finding no way to get to the duke, we
agreed to make for Holland, having changed our clothes with some
of the boors, who likewise behaved kindly to us, or we must have
perished.
20. Some of our friends told the serjeant, that if it was agreeable
to the major, Mr. W――r would preach a sermon on the occasion.
The offer was readily accepted. So in the afternoon he stood near
the place of execution, and all the soldiers were ordered out, and
formed a ring round about him. The officers as well as soldiers were
present, and behaved with the utmost seriousness.
Of the L I F E and D E A T H of
M A T T H E W L E E.
M ATTHEW LEE was born at Croft in Lincolnshire, was educated in
that neighbourhood; and at eleven years of age, put
apprentice to a shoe-maker in Brator near Spillsbury, and served his
time to the approbation of his master: was of a sober, quiet
disposition, and esteemed for his good-nature and integrity. Shortly
after the expiration of his apprenticeship, by the invitation of his
brother, he came to London; but being used to coarse country work,
unskilled in the method of working in London, and but a slow hand
withal, he was incapable, by his business, of gaining even the
necessaries of life. This involved him in great difficulties and
distresses, his relations not being in circumstances to grant him any
assistance. On his application to them for advice, he was advised to
get a waiter’s or drawer’s place at an inn.
After some time he was hired to the Swan at Fulham, where he
lived contentedly and agreeably, gained the good-will of those whom
he conversed with, and kept his character unblemished. He
afterwards lived at a public-house in Carnaby-market: from thence
he went to the Three Tuns in New-street, Fetter-lane, where he
continued to live, till a person who came frequently to drink at his
master’s house, and with whom Matthew had contracted an
intimacy, one day told him that it lay in his power to be of great
benefit to him, and if he would hearken to his advice, he might live
more advantageously than he could do in a public house: Matthew
enquired into the particulars of the affair: Walton (for so was his
companion’s name) informed him, that his aunt had left him a large
legacy, and he was now going to receive the same, and if he would
quit his present service, and attend on him, he would give him great
wages, and he should live as himself. He the more readily agreed
thereto, from a desire to be freed from the threatenings of a woman
with whom he had sinful commerce. He had borrowed money of her,
which he was at present incapable of paying her, for which she
frequently threatened him with a gaol. This made him the more
willing to leave his place, to be freed from her importunity.
Accordingly he packed up his cloaths, with what money he had, and
went from his place with his new pretended master.
But he soon found his mistake: they wandered up and down, till
their money being expended, Walton shewed Lee a pistol, and said,
“This must stand our friend, and supply us with all we want.” When
he objected to the proposal, the other with dreadful curses
threatened to blow his brains out, if he did not comply. While they
were arguing upon the point, they had an opportunity of putting
their design in execution: for in the midst of their discourse, Mr.
Chalmer came in sight. Walton gave Lee the pistol to attack him, but
his heart failed; he sat down on the side of the field, and Mr.
Chalmer passed by uninterrupted.
For this, Walton reproached him bitterly; upon which they both
followed him, Lee with his pistol, and Walton with a large stick, and
robbed the gentleman of his watch and fourteen shillings. Had
Walton been contented with what the gentleman had given him, in
all probability they might have escaped; but Walton perceiving a bulk
in his pocket (which was thirteen guineas) demanded it, which Mr.
Chalmer refused, and recovering his spirits, told them, “Except they
would give him his watch, he would follow them.” Walton observing
this, took the pistol from Lee, and made his escape over the fields;
but Lee having the watch, was closely pursued, and taken with the
watch upon him.
*“I believe now my peace is made with God through Jesus Christ.
I experience a great change in my soul, for while I was at prayer,
last night, in great terror, apprehensive that I was going immediately
body and soul to hell: I cry’d out so loud that my fellow-prisoners in
the next ward heard me, and called to know what was the matter: I
told them that I was going to hell, and begged their prayers for me:
but while I was in the midst of this horror and despair, I suddenly
experienced a blessed and comfortable change: my mind was
immediately calmed: I believed my sins were forgiven: the fear of
hell was taken away: and I was so far from fearing death, that I was
now more desirous to die, than to live.”
He earnestly desired prayer to God in his behalf, and wept
bitterly that ever he should sin against him. It was very observable
from this time, that the greater sense he experienced of the mercy
of God to him, the greater abhorrence he had of sin, and of himself
for committing it.
He was now more serious in hearing the word than ever; and
was frequently singing of psalms and hymns. He could not bear to
hear any of his fellow-prisoners profane the name of God, but would
reprove them and exhort them with a serious concern to reflect on
the consequences of such a behaviour.
“Oh! (said he) did you but feel the terrors I lately did for my sins,
you would dread the thoughts of ever sinning again.”
It was asked again, “How he knew that Christ had taken away his
sins, and that he was washed in his blood.”
*He replied: “As a lost and undone sinner, I have laid hold on
Jesus Christ by faith: I rest the whole of my salvation upon him: I
have believed in him: and he hath adopted me into his family: the
Spirit of God bears witness with my spirit, that I am a child of God.
Thus I know that all my sins are pardoned, and let death come when
it will, I am ready; for I am assured, as soon as this body is dead,
my soul will be with Jesus in paradise.”
*“Sir, If these heavy irons were removed from me, should not I
be sensible of it; and could not I by experience declare to others
that my irons were removed, and my legs were at liberty? Would not
the alteration I felt, be a sufficient foundation to assert the
satisfaction I found by the removal of them? Why thus it was lately
with my soul: it was fettered down to sin: I was a slave to my lusts,
and I could no more get rid of my sins, than I can of these irons. But
while I was fearing and expecting to be cast into hell every moment,
Jesus Christ came and knocked off my irons, my sins: he shut the
doors of hell, and opened the doors of heaven; and set my soul at
liberty. God has made me, who was a slave of the devil, to be a
subject of Christ. I am brought from my lusts and pleasures, which I
loved, to love nothing else but Jesus Christ. And can such an
alteration be wrought in my soul, and I be ignorant thereof?――O
blessed be God, this change fills me with joy: I am full of joy: joy,
not to be expressed: for Christ loves me, and I love Christ, and I
shall shortly be with him for ever.”