Scribd
Upload
52 views

Lecture 5 Decline Curve Analysis

The document discusses decline curve analysis in petroleum engineering, which is a method for predicting future oil and gas production based on historical data. It outlines the causes of production decline, factors affecting decline rates, and types of decline curves, including exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic declines. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of understanding reservoir conditions and operating parameters for accurate forecasting of well performance.

Uploaded by

avand.21002015
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
52 views

Lecture 5 Decline Curve Analysis

The document discusses decline curve analysis in petroleum engineering, which is a method for predicting future oil and gas production based on historical data. It outlines the causes of production decline, factors affecting decline rates, and types of decline curves, including exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic declines. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of understanding reservoir conditions and operating parameters for accurate forecasting of well performance.

Uploaded by

avand.21002015
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 24

Petroleum Engineering Department

Reservoir Engineering I
REE0320702

Decline Curve Analysis


Semester 7th (2023-2024)
Introduction
- When oil and gas is initially produced it is known as primary production.
- In most cases, the primary production rate declines over time with few
exceptions as in the case of a strong water-drive reservoir.
- As time passes, the reservoir pressure declines and production begins to decline.
- To increase production and reserves in oil and gas wells, water or gas may be
injected into the reservoir.
- Upon studying production data, a mathematical relationship was found relating
the decline in production rate with time.
- The oil and gas production profiles differ considerably. When a field starts
production, it builds up to a plateau state, and every operator will want to remain
in this stage for a very long period of time if possible. But it is practically not
possible, because, at a point in the life of the field, the production rate will decline
to a point at which it no longer produces profitable amounts of hydrocarbon as
shown in Fig.
- Decline curve analysis can be defined as a graphical procedure used for analyzing
the rates of declining production and also a means of predicting future oil well or
gas well production based on past production history.
- It is a traditional means of identifying well production problems and predicting
well performance and life based on measured oil or gas well production. Several
computer software have been built to perform this task.
- Decline curve is one of the oldest methods of predicting oil reserves with the
following advantages:
• They use data which is easy to obtain
• They are easy to plot
• They yield results on a time basis, and
• They are easy to analyze.
- It is based on the assumption that past production trends and their controlling
factors will continue in the future and, therefore, can be extrapolated and
described by a mathematical expression.
Application of Decline Curves
• It illustrates the amount of oil and gas produced per unit of time.
• If the factors that controlled production in the past will continue in future, the
curve will be regular, and, if projected, can give the future production of the well.
• DCA is employed to determine the value in oil and gas wells economics.
• Identify well production problems
• Decline curves are used to forecast oil and gas production for the reservoir.
• To predict oil and gas reserves; this can be used as a control on the volumetric
reserves from log analysis and geological data.
• It is often used to estimate the recovery factor by comparing ultimate recovery
with original oil in place or gas in place.
Causes of Production Decline
• Changes in (BHP), gas-oil ratio (GOR) and water-oil ratio (WOR).
• Changes in Productivity Index (PI)
• Changes in efficiency of vertical & horizontal flow mechanism or changes in
equipment for lifting fluid.

Reservoir Factors that Affect the Decline Rate


• Pressure depletion • Number of producing wells
• Reservoir drive mechanism • Reservoir characteristics
• Saturation changes and • Relative permeability.

Operating Conditions that Influence the Decline Rate


• Separator pressure • Tubing size ` • Choke setting
• Workovers • Artificial lift.
As long as the above conditions do not change, the trend in decline can be
analyzed and extrapolated to forecast future well performance. If these conditions
are altered, for example; through a well workover, the decline rate determined
during pre-workover will not be applicable to the post-workover period.

Types of Decline Curves


Arps (1945) proposed that the “curvature” in the production-rate-versus-time
curve can be expressed mathematically by equations and he recognized the
following three types of rate-decline behavior:
• Exponential decline, b = 0
• Harmonic decline, b = 1
• Hyperbolic decline, 0 < b < 1
(b is the Arp’s decline curve exponent)
The plots of production data such as log(q) versus t; q versus Np; log(q) versus
log(t); Np versus log(q) are used to identify a decline model.
when a well is open to flow, it is in a transient (unsteady-state) condition until the
production reaches the drainage boundary, then the well is said to be flowing in a
pseudo- steady-state or boundary-dominated flow condition.

Assumptions before performance of decline-curve analysis:


1. The well is in a boundary-dominated flow condition (pseudo- steady-state).
2. The well is produced at or near capacity.
3. The well is produced at a constant bottom-hole pressure

The area under the decline curve of q vs. time between t1 & t2 is a measure of the
cumulative oil or gas production during this period.
Identification of Exponential Decline:
A production rate that declines by the same percentage each time period is known
as exponential decline. If the exponential decline rate is 8% per year, it means that
the production rate at the end of the year is 8% less than at the beginning of the
year.
If the plot of log(q) versus t OR q versus Np (cumulative production) shows a
straight line, the decline data follow an exponential decline model.
When using decline equations, the time used in the equation must matches the
decline rate time frame. If yearly decline rates are used, then the time used in the
equation must be in years. If monthly decline rates are used, the time must be in
months. All decline rates used in the equations are decimal and not percentages .
Production rates can be daily, monthly or yearly. Both production rates in the
equation (initial and final) must be in the same units.
Identification of Harmonic Decline:
For the case of harmonic decline when the b factor is equal to 1.0, the equations
are much simpler. If the plot of log(q) versus log(t) OR Np versus log(q) shows a
straight line, the decline data follow a harmonic decline model.
Identification of Hyperbolic Decline: If no straight line is seen in these plots
above, the model may be hyperbolic decline model. The relative decline rate vs
the flow rate has to be plotted to ascertain the model according to the equation:

Mathematical Expressions for the Various Types of Decline Curves:


The three models are related through the following equation (Arps 1945):
Mathematical Expressions: The three models are related through the following
relative decline rate equation (Arps 1945):
Exponential (Constant Percent) Decline:
Example: A well has declined from 100 BOPD to 96 BOPD during a one month
period. Assuming exponential decline, predict the rate after 11 more months and
after 22.5 months. Also predict the amount of oil produced after one year.
Hyperbolic Decline: Hyperbolic decline occurs when the rate of decline decreases
over time. The amount of decrease in the decline rate is constant and is defined by
the “b” factor.
The plot of log(q) versus log(t) OR Np versus log(q) shows a straight line, or
production data plotted on a semilog paper concaves upward, then it is modeled
with a hyperbolic decline.

b = hyperbolic exponent,
Harmonic Decline
A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as “harmonic decline”, where b is
taken to be equal to 1. The equations used in harmonic decline are:
Relationship Between Nominal and Effective Decline Rate
The nominal (initial) decline rate (Di) is defined as the negative slope of the
curvature representing the natural logarithm of the production rate versus time.

Effective decline rate ( ) is defined as the drop in production rate from initial rate
to a current rate over a period of time divided by the production rate at the
beginning of the period as shown in the figure.
Mathematically is given as:
Example: An onshore field as being on production for the past 2 years (24 months) given in the
table below. As a production, you are required to perform the following tasks:
• Identify a suitable decline model • Determine model parameters
• Project production rate until a marginal rate of 280 stb/day is reached.
Solution: Based on the criteria stated above for decline curve model identification, the
production is undergoing an exponential decline as depicted in the plots below.
(a = 1/b)

You might also like