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 Thinking through Crisis
Bridging the gap between theory and practice, this strikingly original analysis
of the complex dynamics of high-risk fields demonstrates that teamwork is
more important than technical prowess in averting disasters. Thinking through
Crisis narrates critical incidents from initiation to resolution in five elegantly
constructed case studies:€ the USS Greeneville collision, the Hillsborough
football crush, the American Airline flight 587 in-flight breakup, the Bristol
Hospital pediatric fatalities, and the US Airways flight 1549 Hudson River
landing. Drawing on a variety of theoretical and real-world perspectives, this
vivid, well-documented book provides innovative ways to understand risk
management, develop new models of crisis decision making, enhance socially
responsible leadership, and encourage deep questioning of the behavior of
individuals and groups in complex systems. Its insights will resonate with
professionals in a wide range of fields and with a general audience interested
in understanding crises in complex systems.

Dr. Amy L. Fraher is Associate Professor and Chief Pilot of the Aviation
Operations Program and director of the International Team Training Center
at San Diego Miramar College. She is a retired U.S. Navy Commander, Naval
Aviator, and former United Airlines pilot with 6,000 mishap-free flight
hours in four jet airliners, five military aircraft, and several types of€civil�
ian€airplanes. A crisis management expert with almost thirty years of leader�
ship experience in high-risk fields, she is a member of the Washington
Post Leadership Panel. As principal consultant of Paradox and Company
and qualified Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, she consults internationally with
a broad range of organizations. Her focus is on improving team perfor-
mance in high-risk organizations by helping people understand how group
dynamics can debilitate operations. She is the author of Group Dynamics for
High-Risk Teams (2005) and A History of Group Study and Psychodynamic
Organizations (2004). Her essays have appeared in journals such as History
of Psychology, Human Relations, Socio-Analysis, and Organisational and
Social Dynamics.
 Thinking through Crisis
Improving Teamwork and Leadership
in High-Risk Fields

Amy L. Fraher
cambridge university press
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City

Cambridge University Press

32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title:€www.cambridge.org/9780521757539

© Amy L. Fraher 2011

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2011

Printed in the United States of America

A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data

Fraher, Amy Louise.
â•… Thinking through crisis : improving teamwork and leadership in high-risk fields /
Amy L. Fraher.
â•…â•… p.â•… cm.
â•… Includes bibliographical references and index.
â•… isbn 978-0-521-76420-9 – isbn 978-0-521-75753-9 (pbk.)
╅ 1.╇ Crisis management.╅ 2.╇ Teams in the workplace.╅ 3.╇ Leadership.╅ I.╇ Title.
â•… hd49.f73â•… 2011
â•… 658.4′056–dc22â•…â•…â•… 2010050330

isbn 978-0-521-76420-9 Hardback

isbn 978-0-521-75753-9 Paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of

urls for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and
does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or
appropriate.
For Kathy
 Contents

List of Figures and Tables page viii

Preface and Acknowledgment ix
Acronyms and Abbreviations xi

Introduction:€How Teamwork Is More Important than

Technical Prowess 1
1 Rethinking Normal Accidents and Human Error€– A New
View of Crisis Management 7
2 USS Greeneville€– The Downside of Charismatic
Leadership 14
3 The Hillsborough Football Disaster€– Explosive Team
Chemistry 34
4 American Airlines Flight 587€– Latent Failures Align 63
5 Bristol Royal Infirmary€– The Price of Organizational
Overreach 98
6 US Airways Flight 1549€– Thinking through Crisis 130
7 Team Resource Management 164

Notes 193
Bibliography 217
Index 237

vii
 Figures and Tables

Figures
1.1. United Airlines Flight 232 ground track page 9
2.1. The fast-attack nuclear submarine USS Greeneville 15
2.2. The Japanese fishing vessel Ehime Maru 16
2.3. USS Greeneville and Ehime Maru collision track 17
2.4. USS Greeneville’s control room and sonar room
prior to collision 19
3.1. Hillsborough’s Sheffield Wednesday Stadium layout 36
4.1. Flight path of American Airlines Flight 587 and key events 65
4.2. Recovery of American Airlines Flight 587’s vertical stabilizer 67
4.3. Fracture point of Flight 587’s vertical stabilizer 67
4.4. U.S. commercial pilot employment 72
4.5. American Airlines Flight 587€– individual, group,
and systemic factors align 83
6.1. US Airways Flight 1549 floating on the Hudson River 134
6.2. Emergency responders arrive alongside the sinking
US Airways Flight 1549 135
6.3. US Airways Flight 1549 escaping passengers await rescue 136
7.1. Team Resource Management (TRM) sense-making cycle 185

Table
4.1. Airbus A300–600 rudder control system design
characteristics compared with the Boeing 727 69

viii
 Preface and Acknowledgment

In the fall of 1979, I was the starting right halfback on Old Saybrook
High School’s varsity field hockey team. The year before had been a
season of high expectations but ultimately low achievement for our
team, and in the spring most of the starters graduated, moving on to
other places. In response, the ’79 season was dubbed a ‘rebuilding year’
by our small-town newspaper, as nearly the entire varsity team was
replaced by our less-experienced junior varsity members. Admittedly,
we were a pretty motley crew:€jocks, hippies, preppies, and nerds. No
one player really excelled; we were all about equal in skill. Yet, what we
lacked in the flashy talent of the previous year’s team, we made up for
in shear grit and determination. A mongrel team of underdogs, moti-
vated by what we felt was a general ‘dis’ to our potential. Of course this
never got articulated; it simply got enacted.
In the end, our motley crew turned a ‘rebuilding year’ into the best
school record ever achieved, including winning the Connecticut State
Championship. I graduated that spring and moved on myself, partici-
pating in college athletics and then years later, the All-Navy basketball
team. Although I often played with much better individuals on those
teams, I never played on a better team than that high school hockey
squad. What was different in the team chemistry of that group that
allowed us to achieve so much with so little? And what caused subse-
quent teams with more talent and potential to ultimately fall short?
I wondered, are teams good because they have chemistry, or do
they have chemistry because they are good? I have been intrigued by

ix
x Preface and Acknowledgment

this question for thirty years. Over that time, I continued to work in
teams:€first as an enlisted U.S. Marine, then as a Naval Officer and
Naval Aviator, commercial airline pilot, and now, college professor
and organizational consultant. Over the course of this career, I was
exposed to numerous leadership theories, team-building strategies,
and training programs, leading me to develop my own Team Resource
Management (TRM) model.
This book is a by-product of my exploration to understand better
the influence of team chemistry, the role of team learning in organiza-
tional errors and their prevention, and the impact of the environment
on team performance during the critical period in which a disaster
unfolds. Understanding these dynamics is important for everyone
who is interested in working more effectively in teams and organiza-
tions. But, it is essential for those of us in high-risk fields.
As with any project of this magnitude, many people and organiza-
tions have been influential in its creation. Some, such as colleagues at
the International Society for the Psychoanalytic Study of Organizations
(ISPSO) provided me with intellectual stimulation and a forum to
exchange ideas and test my theories through scholarly activities. Others
such as the Parliamentary Archives and The Stationery Office (TSO) in
the UK, U.S. Navy and COMPACFLT Public Affairs Office, National
Air and Space Museum, National Transportation Safety Board, and U.S.
Department of Transportation provided invaluable research materials.
I would like to thank them all for their contributions to this book.
I would also like to thank Dougie Brimson, Benjamin Chesluk,
Matthieu Daum, Phil Edwards, Kathleen B. Jones, Sarah H. Kagan,
Susan Long, Will McMahon, Ian Poynton, Phil Scranton, my �editors Ed
Parsons and Simina Calin, and the anonymous reviewers at Cambridge
University Press for their feedback, suggestions, support, and encour-
agement. Thanks also to my friends and family, Coach Splain and the
1979 hockey team, and students and colleagues at San Diego Miramar
College. Finally, thanks to my fellow yogis at Ginseng Yoga for the
reminder to breathe every once in a while. Namaste.
 Acronyms and Abbreviations

AAMP Advanced Aircraft Maneuvering Program

BRI Bristol Royal Infirmary
CO Commanding Officer
COI Court of Inquiry
CRM Crew Resource Management
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
MBPS Munchausen-By-Proxy Syndrome
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NDM Naturalistic Decision Making
NHS National Health Service
NTSB National Transportation Safety Board
OMBP Organizational-Munchausen-By-Proxy
OOD Officer of the Deck
ORM Operational Risk Management
PCU Pediatric Cardiology Unit
TEM Threat and Error Management
TET Tribal Engagement Teams
TGA Transposition of the Great Arteries
TMI Three Mile Island
TRM Team Resource Management
UK United Kingdom
US United States of America
USS United States Ship
XO Executive Officer

xi
 Introduction: How Teamwork Is More
Important than Technical Prowess

In 2001 during a routine training mission off the Hawaiian Islands,

a U.S. Navy fast-attack nuclear submarine surfaced into a Japanese
�fishing trawler, severing the boat in half, killing nine people, and
�creating an international incident. The submarine was known as one
of the best in the fleet, expertly operated by a hand-selected crew and
led by a talented and charismatic captain.
That same year, a modern Airbus airliner broke apart in flight,
crashing into a New York City suburb, and killing all 260 people
aboard and 5 people on the ground. This jet used some of the aero-
space industry’s most advanced technologies and was flown by one
of the best trained air crews in the world, yet resulted in the second
deadliest aviation accident on U.S. soil to date.
In 1989, a fatal human crush occurred during a British football
match in Sheffield, England, killing ninety-six spectators, injuring
hundreds more, and traumatizing thousands. People had been packed
so tightly in the stadium’s ‘pens,’ or open viewing areas, that many died
standing up while oblivious security officials actually pushed escaping
fans back into the mayhem.
Finally, a pediatric cardiology unit at a well-reputed hospital in the
United Kingdom continued to attempt a risky new surgical operation
over a seven-year period even though the procedure was resulting in
dozens of infants’ deaths. Although doctors arguably possessed the
technical skills, teamwork broke down as thirty to thirty-five more

1
2 Introduction

babies died than might be expected had the standard of care been
equal to that at other hospitals.
In contrast to these examples of performance breakdown, there is
the successful rescue of 155 people from the icy waters of the Hudson
River in New York City in January 2009, when their airliner experi-
enced a dual engine failure after multiple bird strikes. What enabled
this heroic team to succeed€– effectively making sense of their chal-
lenges in a technologically complex and dynamically evolving envi-
ronment€– while these other teams failed? These five case studies€– the
USS Greeneville submarine collision, Hillsborough Stadium football
crush, American Airlines Flight 587 in-flight breakup, Bristol Hospital
pediatric cardiology deaths, and US Airways Flight 1549’s Hudson
River landing€– provide data to understand better the dynamics that
impact team performance in high-risk fields. In different ways, each
case illustrates how teamwork can be more important than technical
prowess in preventing disaster in high-risk fields.
For our purposes, a high-risk team is two or more people working
together in an environment where there is significant risk of injury or
death to the team or to others as a result of the team’s performance.
Professionals in fields such as aviation, military, law enforcement, and
firefighting risk their own personal safety at work every day, making
these excellent examples of high-risk professions. Other fields such as
automotive technology, emergency planning, �engineering, medicine,
nuclear power, or off-shore drilling, among others, may not seem as
risky for individuals working within them, yet decisions and actions
made by people in these fields can greatly affect the safety of others.
Just imagine yourself on the operating table€– the surgeon and his or
her team’s safety may not be directly at risk, but your health certainly
is. Therefore, we will consider these high-risk teams as well.
All groups and organizations have subtle, and not so subtle,
�dynamics that influence team behavior. Yet, teams operating in high-
risk fields have unique, often covert, characteristics influenced by
the nature of their tasks, their hazardous and unforgiving operating
Discovering Diverse Content Through
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great as the diagram at first suggests; it will not be increased in
anything like the proportion of to in the figure. We
should not be surprised if the number turned out to be the same in
both cases. If so, the surveyor will report the same distance of the
earth from the sun whether the track is or . And the
Superintendent of the Nautical Almanac who published this same
distance some years in advance will claim that he correctly predicted
where the earth would go.
And so you see that the earth can play truant to any extent but
our measurements will still report it in the place assigned to it by the
Nautical Almanac. The predictions of that authority pay no attention
to the vagaries of the god-like earth; they are based on what will
happen when we come to measure up the path that it has chosen.
We shall measure it with rods that adjust themselves to the curvature
of the world. The mathematical expression of this fact is the law of
gravitation used in the predictions.
Perhaps you will object that astronomers do not in practice lay
measuring rods end to end through interplanetary space in order to
find out where the planets are. Actually the position is deduced from
the light rays. But the light as it proceeds has to find out what course
to take in order to go “straight”, in much the same way as the metre
rod has to find out how far to extend. The metric or curvature is a
sign-post for the light as it is a gauge for the rod. The light track is in
fact controlled by the curvature in such a way that it is incapable of
exposing the sham law of curvature. And so wherever the sun, moon
and earth may have got to, the light will not give them away. If the
law of curvature predicts an eclipse the light will take such a track
that there is an eclipse. The law of gravitation is not a stern ruler
controlling the heavenly bodies; it is a kind-hearted accomplice who
covers up their delinquencies.
I do not recommend you to try to verify from Fig. 6 that the
number of rods in (full line) and (dotted line) is the
same. There are two dimensions of space-time omitted in the picture
besides the extra dimensions in which space-time must be supposed
to be bent; moreover it is the spherical, not the cylindrical, curvature
which is the gauge for the length. It might be an instructive, though
very laborious, task to make this direct verification, but we know
beforehand that the measured distance of the earth from the sun
must be the same for either track. The law of gravitation, expressed
mathematically by , means nothing more nor less than
that the unit of length everywhere is a constant fraction of the
directed radius of the world at that point. And as the astronomer who
predicts the future position of the earth does not assume anything
more about what the earth will choose to do than is expressed in the
law so we shall find the same position of the earth, if
we assume nothing more than that the practical unit of length
involved in measurements of the position is a constant fraction of the
directed radius. We do not need to decide whether the track is to be
represented by or , and it would convey no information as
to any observable phenomena if we knew the representation.
I shall have to emphasise elsewhere that the whole of our
physical knowledge is based on measures and that the physical
world consists, so to speak, of measure-groups resting on a
shadowy background that lies outside the scope of physics.
Therefore in conceiving a world which had existence apart from the
measurements that we make of it, I was trespassing outside the
limits of what we call physical reality. I would not dissent from the
view that a vagary which by its very nature could not be measurable
has no claim to a physical existence. No one knows what is meant
by such a vagary. I said that the earth might go anywhere it chose,
but did not provide a “where” for it to choose; since our conception of
“where” is based on space measurements which were at that stage
excluded. But I do not think I have been illogical. I am urging that, do
what it will, the earth cannot get out of the track laid down for it by
the law of gravitation. In order to show this I must suppose that the
earth has made the attempt and stolen nearer to the sun; then I
show that our measures conspire quietly to locate it back in its
proper orbit. I have to admit in the end that the earth never was out
of its proper orbit;[25] I do not mind that, because meanwhile I have
proved my point. The fact that a predictable path through space and
time is laid down for the earth is not a genuine restriction on its
conduct, but is imposed by the formal scheme in which we draw up
our account of its conduct.

Non-Empty Space. The law that the directed radius is constant does
not apply to space which is not completely empty. There is no longer
any reason to expect it to hold. The statement that the region is not
empty means that it has other characteristics besides metric, and the
metre rod can then find other lengths besides curvatures to measure
itself against. Referring to the earlier (sufficiently approximate)
expression of the law, the ten principal coefficients of curvature are
zero in empty space but have non-zero values in non-empty space.
It is therefore natural to use these coefficients as a measure of the
fullness of space.
One of the coefficients corresponds to mass (or energy) and in
most practical cases it outweighs the others in importance. The old
definition of mass as “quantity of matter” associates it with a fullness
of space. Three other coefficients make up the momentum—a
directed quantity with three independent components. The remaining
six coefficients of principal curvature make up the stress or pressure-
system. Mass, momentum and stress accordingly represent the non-
emptiness of a region in so far as it is able to disturb the usual
surveying apparatus with which we explore space—clocks, scales,
light-rays, etc. It should be added, however, that this is a summary
description and not a full account of the non-emptiness, because we
have other exploring apparatus—magnets, electroscopes, etc.—
which provide further details. It is usually considered that when we
use these we are exploring not space, but a field in space. The
distinction thus created is a rather artificial one which is unlikely to be
accepted permanently. It would seem that the results of exploring the
world with a measuring scale and a magnetic compass respectively
ought to be welded together into a unified description, just as we
have welded together results of exploration with a scale and a clock.
Some progress has been made towards this unification. There is,
however, a real reason for admitting a partially separate treatment;
the one mode of exploration determines the symmetrical properties
and the other the antisymmetrical properties of the underlying world-
structure.[26]
Objection has often been taken, especially by philosophical
writers, to the crudeness of Einstein’s initial requisitions, viz. a clock
and a measuring scale. But the body of experimental knowledge of
the world which Einstein’s theory seeks to set in order has not come
into our minds as a heaven-sent inspiration; it is the result of a
survey in which the clock and the scale have actually played the
leading part. They may seem very gross instruments to those
accustomed to the conceptions of atoms and electrons, but it is
correspondingly gross knowledge that we have been discussing in
the chapters concerned with Einstein’s theory. As the relativity theory
develops, it is generally found desirable to replace the clock and
scale by the moving particle and light-ray as the primary surveying
appliances; these are test bodies of simpler structure. But they are
still gross compared with atomic phenomena. The light-ray, for
instance, is not applicable to measurements so refined that the
diffraction of light must be taken into account. Our knowledge of the
external world cannot be divorced from the nature of the appliances
with which we have obtained the knowledge. The truth of the law of
gravitation cannot be regarded as subsisting apart from the
experimental procedure by which we have ascertained its truth.
The conception of frames of space and time, and of the non-
emptiness of the world described as energy, momentum, etc., is
bound up with the survey by gross appliances. When they can no
longer be supported by such a survey, the conceptions melt away
into meaninglessness. In particular the interior of the atom could not
conceivably be explored by a gross survey. We cannot put a clock or
a scale into the interior of an atom. It cannot be too strongly insisted
that the terms distance, period of time, mass, energy, momentum,
etc., cannot be used in a description of an atom with the same
meanings that they have in our gross experience. The atomic
physicist who uses these terms must find his own meanings for them
—must state the appliances which he requisitions when he imagines
them to be measured. It is sometimes supposed that (in addition to
electrical forces) there is a minute gravitational attraction between an
atomic nucleus and the satellite electrons, obeying the same law as
the gravitation between the sun and its planets. The supposition
seems to me fantastic; but it is impossible to discuss it without any
indication as to how the region within the atom is supposed to have
been measured up. Apart from such measuring up the electron goes
as it pleases “like the blessed gods”.
We have reached a point of great scientific and philosophic
interest. The ten principal coefficients of curvature of the world are
not strangers to us; they are already familiar in scientific discussion
under other names (energy, momentum, stress). This is comparable
with a famous turning-point in the development of electromagnetic
theory. The progress of the subject led to the consideration of waves
of electric and magnetic force travelling through the aether; then it
flashed upon Maxwell that these waves were not strangers but were
already familiar in our experience under the name of light. The
method of identification is the same. It is calculated that
electromagnetic waves will have just those properties which light is
observed to have; so too it is calculated that the ten coefficients of
curvature have just those properties which energy, momentum and
stress are observed to have. We refer here to physical properties
only. No physical theory is expected to explain why there is a
particular kind of image in our minds associated with light, nor why a
conception of substance has arisen in our minds in connection with
those parts of the world containing mass.
This leads to a considerable simplification, because identity
replaces causation. On the Newtonian theory no explanation of
gravitation would be considered complete unless it described the
mechanism by which a piece of matter gets a grip on the
surrounding medium and makes it the carrier of the gravitational
influence radiating from the matter. Nothing corresponding to this is
required in the present theory. We do not ask how mass gets a grip
on space-time and causes the curvature which our theory postulates.
That would be as superfluous as to ask how light gets a grip on the
electromagnetic medium so as to cause it to oscillate. The light is the
oscillation; the mass is the curvature. There is no causal effect to be
attributed to mass; still less is there any to be attributed to matter.
The conception of matter, which we associate with these regions of
unusual contortion, is a monument erected by the mind to mark the
scene of conflict. When you visit the site of a battle, do you ever ask
how the monument that commemorates it can have caused so much
carnage?
The philosophic outcome of this identification will occupy us
considerably in later chapters. Before leaving the subject of
gravitation I wish to say a little about the meaning of space-curvature
and non-Euclidean geometry.

Non-Euclidean Geometry. I have been encouraging you to think of

space-time as curved; but I have been careful to speak of this as a
picture, not as a hypothesis. It is a graphical representation of the
things we are talking about which supplies us with insight and
guidance. What we glean from the picture can be expressed in a
more non-committal way by saying that space-time has non-
Euclidean geometry. The terms “curved space” and “non-Euclidean
space” are used practically synonymously; but they suggest rather
different points of view. When we were trying to conceive finite and
unbounded space (p. 81) the difficult step was the getting rid of the
inside and the outside of the hypersphere. There is a similar step in
the transition from curved space to non-Euclidean space—the
dropping of all relations to an external (and imaginary) scaffolding
and the holding on to those relations which exist within the space
itself.
If you ask what is the distance from Glasgow to New York there
are two possible replies. One man will tell you the distance
measured over the surface of the ocean; another will recollect that
there is a still shorter distance by tunnel through the earth. The
second man makes use of a dimension which the first had put out of
mind. But if two men do not agree as to distances, they will not agree
as to geometry; for geometry treats of the laws of distances. To
forget or to be ignorant of a dimension lands us into a different
geometry. Distances for the second man obey a Euclidean geometry
of three dimensions; distances for the first man obey a non-
Euclidean geometry of two dimensions. And so if you concentrate
your attention on the earth’s surface so hard that you forget that
there is an inside or an outside to it, you will say that it is a two-
dimensional manifold with non-Euclidean geometry; but if you
recollect that there is three-dimensional space all round which
affords shorter ways of getting from point to point, you can fly back to
Euclid after all. You will then “explain away” the non-Euclidean
geometry by saying that what you at first took for distances were not
the proper distances. This seems to be the easiest way of seeing
how a non-Euclidean geometry can arise—through mislaying a
dimension—but we must not infer that non-Euclidean geometry is
impossible unless it arises from this cause.
In our four-dimensional world pervaded by gravitation the
distances obey a non-Euclidean geometry. Is this because we are
concentrating attention wholly on its four dimensions and have
missed the short cuts through regions beyond? By the aid of six
extra dimensions we can return to Euclidean geometry; in that case
our usual distances from point to point in the world are not the “true”
distances, the latter taking shorter routes through an eighth or ninth
dimension. To bend the world in a super-world of ten dimensions so
as to provide these short cuts does, I think, help us to form an idea
of the properties of its non-Euclidean geometry; at any rate the
picture suggests a useful vocabulary for describing those properties.
But we are not likely to accept these extra dimensions as a literal
fact unless we regard non-Euclidean geometry as a thing which at all
costs must be explained away.
Of the two alternatives—a curved manifold in a Euclidean space
of ten dimensions or a manifold with non-Euclidean geometry and no
extra dimensions—which is right? I would rather not attempt a direct
answer, because I fear I should get lost in a fog of metaphysics. But I
may say at once that I do not take the ten dimensions seriously;
whereas I take the non-Euclidean geometry of the world very
seriously, and I do not regard it as a thing which needs explaining
away. The view, which some of us were taught at school, that the
truth of Euclid’s axioms can be seen intuitively, is universally rejected
nowadays. We can no more settle the laws of space by intuition than
we can settle the laws of heredity. If intuition is ruled out, the appeal
must be to experiment—genuine open-minded experiment
unfettered by any preconception as to what the verdict ought to be.
We must not afterwards go back on the experiments because they
make out space to be very slightly non-Euclidean. It is quite true that
a way out could be found. By inventing extra dimensions we can
make the non-Euclidean geometry of the world depend on a
Euclidean geometry of ten dimensions; had the world proved to be
Euclidean we could, I believe, have made its geometry depend on a
non-Euclidean geometry of ten dimensions. No one would treat the
latter suggestion seriously, and no reason can be given for treating
the former more seriously.
I do not think that the six extra dimensions have any stalwart
defenders; but we often meet with attempts to reimpose Euclidean
geometry on the world in another way. The proposal, which is made
quite unblushingly, is that since our measured lengths do not obey
Euclidean geometry we must apply corrections to them—cook them
—till they do. A closely related view often advocated is that space is
neither Euclidean nor non-Euclidean; it is all a matter of convention
and we are free to adopt any geometry we choose.[27] Naturally if we
hold ourselves free to apply any correction we like to our
experimental measures we can make them obey any law; but was it
worth while saying this? The assertion that any kind of geometry is
permissible could only be made on the assumption that lengths have
no fixed value—that the physicist does not (or ought not to) mean
anything in particular when he talks of length. I am afraid I shall have
a difficulty in making my meaning clear to those who start from the
assumption that my words mean nothing in particular; but for those
who will accord them some meaning I will try to remove any possible
doubt. The physicist is accustomed to state lengths to a great
number of significant figures; to ascertain the significance of these
lengths we must notice how they are derived; and we find that they
are derived from a comparison with the extension of a standard of
specified material constitution. (We may pause to notice that the
extension of a standard material configuration may rightly be
regarded as one of the earliest subjects of inquiry in a physical
survey of our environment.) These lengths are a gateway through
which knowledge of the world around us is sought. Whether or not
they will remain prominent in the final picture of world-structure will
transpire as the research proceeds; we do not prejudge that. Actually
we soon find that space-lengths or time-lengths taken singly are
relative, and only a combination of them could be expected to
appear even in the humblest capacity in the ultimate world-structure.
Meanwhile the first step through the gateway takes us to the
geometry obeyed by these lengths—very nearly Euclidean, but
actually non-Euclidean and, as we have seen, a distinctive type of
non-Euclidean geometry in which the ten principal coefficients of
curvature vanish. We have shown in this chapter that the limitation is
not arbitrary; it is a necessary property of lengths expressed in terms
of the extension of a material standard, though it might have been
surprising if it had occurred in lengths defined otherwise. Must we
stop to notice the interjection that if we had meant something
different by length we should have found a different geometry?
Certainly we should; and if we had meant something different by
electric force we should have found equations different from
Maxwell’s equations. Not only empirically but also by theoretical
reasoning, we reach the geometry which we do because our lengths
mean what they do.
I have too long delayed dealing with the criticism of the pure
mathematician who is under the impression that geometry is a
subject that belongs entirely to him. Each branch of experimental
knowledge tends to have associated with it a specialised body of
mathematical investigations. The pure mathematician, at first called
in as servant, presently likes to assert himself as master; the
connexus of mathematical propositions becomes for him the main
subject, and he does not ask permission from Nature when he
wishes to vary or generalise the original premises. Thus he can
arrive at a geometry unhampered by any restriction from actual
space measures; a potential theory unhampered by any question as
to how gravitational and electrical potentials really behave; a
hydrodynamics of perfect fluids doing things which it would be
contrary to the nature of any material fluid to do. But it seems to be
only in geometry that he has forgotten that there ever was a physical
subject of the same name, and even resents the application of the
name to anything but his network of abstract mathematics. I do not
think it can be disputed that, both etymologically and traditionally,
geometry is the science of measurement of the space around us;
and however much the mathematical superstructure may now
overweigh the observational basis, it is properly speaking an
experimental science. This is fully recognised in the “reformed”
teaching of geometry in schools; boys are taught to verify by
measurement that certain of the geometrical propositions are true or
nearly true. No one questions the advantage of an unfettered
development of geometry as a pure mathematical subject; but only in
so far as this subject is linked to the quantities arising out of
observation and measurement, will it find mention in a discussion of
the Nature of the Physical World.
[19] Cylindrical curvature of the world has nothing to do with
gravitation, nor so far as we know with any other phenomenon.
Anything drawn on the surface of a cylinder can be unrolled into a
flat map without distortion, but the curvature introduced in the last
chapter was intended to account for the distortion which appears
in our customary flat map; it is therefore curvature of the type
exemplified by a sphere, not a cylinder.
[20] This relativity with respect to a standard unit is, of course,
additional to and independent of the relativity with respect to the
observer’s motion treated in chapter II.
[21] In so far as these casual influences are not entirely eliminated
by the selection of material and the precautions in using the rod,
appropriate corrections must be applied. But the rod must not be
corrected for essential characteristics of the space it is measuring.
We correct the reading of a voltmeter for temperature, but it would
be nonsensical to correct it for effects of the applied voltage. The
distinction between casual and essential influences—those to be
eliminated and those to be left in—depends on the intention of the
measurements. The measuring rod is intended for surveying
space, and the essential characteristic of space is “metric”. It
would be absurd to correct the readings of our scale to the values
they would have had if the space had some other metric. The
region of the world to which the metric refers may also contain an
electric field; this will be regarded as a casual characteristic since
the measuring rod is not intended for surveying electric fields. I do
not mean that from a broader standpoint the electric field is any
less essential to the region than its peculiar metric. It would be
hard to say in what sense it would remain the same region if any
of its qualities were other than they actually are. This point does
not trouble us here, because there are vast regions of the world
practically empty of all characteristics except metric, and it is to
these that the law of gravitation is applied both in theory and in
practice. It has seemed, however, desirable to dwell on this
distinction between essential and casual characteristics because
there are some who, knowing that we cannot avoid in all
circumstances corrections for casual influences, regard that as
license to adopt any arbitrary system of corrections—a procedure
which would merely have the effect of concealing what the
measures can teach us about essential characteristics.
[22] A. N. Whitehead, The Principle of Relativity, Preface.
[23] On the other hand a quantum (see chapter IX) has a definite
periodicity associated with it, so that it must be able to measure
itself against a time-extension. Anyone who contemplates the
mathematical equations of the new quantum theory will see
abundant evidence of the battle with the intervening symbol
.
[24] Hegel, Werke (1842 Ed.), Bd. 7, Abt. 1, p. 97.
[25] Because I can attach no meaning to an orbit other than an
orbit in space and time, i.e. as located by measures. But I could
not assume that the alternative orbit would be meaningless
(inconsistent with possible measures) until I tried it.
[26] See p. 236.
[27] As a recent illustration of this attitude I may refer to Bertrand
Russell’s Analysis of Matter, p. 78—a book with which I do not
often seriously disagree. “Whereas Eddington seems to regard it
as necessary to adopt Einstein’s variable space, Whitehead
regards it as necessary to reject it. For my part, I do not see why
we should agree with either view; the matter seems to be one of
convenience in the interpretation of formulae.” Russell’s view is
commended in a review by C. D. Broad. See also footnote, p.
142.
 Chapter VIII
MAN’S PLACE IN THE UNIVERSE
The Sidereal Universe. The largest telescopes reveal about a
thousand million stars. Each increase in telescopic power adds to
the number and we can scarcely set a limit to the multitude that must
exist. Nevertheless there are signs of exhaustion, and it is clear that
the distribution which surrounds us does not extend uniformly
through infinite space. At first an increase in light-grasp by one
magnitude brings into view three times as many stars; but the factor
diminishes so that at the limit of faintness reached by the giant
telescopes a gain of one magnitude multiplies the number of stars
seen by only 1.8, and the ratio at that stage is rapidly decreasing. It
is as though we are approaching a limit at which increase of power
will not bring into view very many additional stars.
Attempts have been made to find the whole number of stars by a
risky extrapolation of these counts, and totals ranging from 3000 to
30,000 millions are sometimes quoted. But the difficulty is that the
part of the stellar universe which we mainly survey is a local
condensation or star-cloud forming part of a much greater system. In
certain directions in the sky our telescopes penetrate to the limits of
the system, but in other directions the extent is too great for us to
fathom. The Milky Way, which on a dark night forms a gleaming belt
round the sky, shows the direction in which there lie stars behind
stars until vision fails. This great flattened distribution is called the
Galactic System. It forms a disc of thickness small compared to its a
real extent. It is partly broken up into subordinate condensations,
which are probably coiled in spiral form like the spiral nebulae which
are observed in great numbers in the heavens. The centre of the
galactic system lies somewhere in the direction of the constellation
Sagittarius; it is hidden from us not only by great distance but also to
some extent by tracts of obscuring matter (dark nebulosity) which
cuts off the light of the stars behind.
We must distinguish then between our local star-cloud and the
great galactic system of which it is a part. Mainly (but not exclusively)
the star-counts relate to the local star-cloud, and it is this which the
largest telescopes are beginning to exhaust. It too has a flattened
form—flattened nearly in the same plane as the galactic system. If
the galactic system is compared to a disc, the local star-cloud may
be compared to a bun, its thickness being about one-third of its
lateral extension. Its size is such that light takes at least 2000 years
to cross from one side to the other; this measurement is necessarily
rough because it relates to a vague condensation which is probably
not sharply separated from other contiguous condensations. The
extent of the whole spiral is of the order 100,000 light years. It can
scarcely be doubted that the flattened form of the system is due to
rapid rotation, and indeed there is direct evidence of strong rotational
velocity; but it is one of the unexplained mysteries of evolution that
nearly all celestial bodies have come to be endowed with fast
rotation.
Amid this great population the sun is a humble unit. It is a very
ordinary star about midway in the scale of brilliancy. We know of
stars which give at least 10,000 times the light of the sun; we know
also of stars which give ¹⁄₁₀₀₀₀ of its light. But those of inferior light
greatly outnumber those of superior light. In mass, in surface
temperature, in bulk, the sun belongs to a very common class of
stars; its speed of motion is near the average; it shows none of the
more conspicuous phenomena such as variability which excite the
attention of astronomers. In the community of stars the sun
corresponds to a respectable middle-class citizen. It happens to be
quite near the centre of the local star-cloud; but this apparently
favoured position is discounted by the fact that the star-cloud itself is
placed very eccentrically in relation to the galactic system, being in
fact near the confines of it. We cannot claim to be at the hub of the
universe.
 The contemplation of the galaxy impresses us with the
insignificance of our own little world; but we have to go still lower in
the valley of humiliation. The galactic system is one among a million
or more spiral nebulae. There seems now to be no doubt that, as
has long been suspected, the spiral nebulae are “island universes”
detached from our own. They too are great systems of stars—or
systems in the process of developing into stars—built on the same
disc-like plan. We see some of them edgeways and can appreciate
the flatness of the disc; others are broadside on and show the
arrangement of the condensations in the form of a double spiral.
Many show the effects of dark nebulosity breaking into the regularity-
and blotting out the star-light. In a few of the nearest spirals it is
possible to detect the brightest of the stars individually; variable stars
and novae (or “new stars”) are observed as in our own system. From
the apparent magnitudes of the stars of recognisable character
(especially the Cepheid variables) it is possible to judge the distance.
The nearest spiral nebula is 850,000 light years away.
From the small amount of data yet collected it would seem that
our own nebula or galactic system is exceptionally large; it is even
suggested that if the spiral nebulae are “islands” the galactic system
is a “continent”. But we can scarcely venture to claim premier rank
without much stronger evidence. At all events these other universes
are aggregations of the order of 100 million stars.
Again the question raises itself, How far does this distribution
extend? Not the stars this time but universes stretch one behind the
other beyond sight. Does this distribution too come to an end? It may
be that imagination must take another leap, envisaging super-
systems which surpass the spiral nebulae as the spiral nebulae
surpass the stars. But there is one feeble gleam of evidence that
perhaps this time the summit of the hierarchy has been reached, and
that the system of the spirals is actually the whole world. As has
already been explained the modern view is that space is finite—finite
though unbounded. In such a space light which has travelled an
appreciable part of the way “round the world” is slowed down in its
vibrations, with the result that all spectral lines are displaced towards
the red. Ordinarily we interpret such a red displacement as signifying
receding velocity in the line of sight. Now it is a striking fact that a
great majority of the spirals which have been measured show large
receding velocities often exceeding 1000 kilometres per second.
There are only two serious exceptions, and these are the largest
spirals which must be nearer to us than most of the others. On
ordinary grounds it would be difficult to explain why these other
universes should hurry away from us so fast and so unanimously.
Why should they shun us like a plague? But the phenomenon is
intelligible if what has really been observed is the slowing down of
vibrations consequent on the light from these objects having
travelled an appreciable part of the way round the world. On that
theory the radius of space is of the order twenty times the average
distance of the nebulae observed, or say 100 million light years. That
leaves room for a few million spirals; but there is nothing beyond.
There is no beyond—in spherical space “beyond” brings us back
towards the earth from the opposite direction.[28]

The Scale of Time. The corridor of time stretches back through the
past. We can have no conception how it all began. But at some
stage we imagine the void to have been filled with matter rarified
beyond the most tenuous nebula. The atoms sparsely strewn move
hither and thither in formless disorder.

Behold the throne

Of Chaos and his dark pavilion spread
Wide on the wasteful deep.

Then slowly the power of gravitation is felt. Centres of

condensation begin to establish themselves and draw in other
matter. The first partitions are the star-systems such as our galactic
system; sub-condensations separate the star-clouds or clusters;
these divide again to give the stars.
Evolution has not reached the same development in all parts. We
observe nebulae and clusters in different stages of advance. Some
stars are still highly diffuse; others are concentrated like the sun with
density greater than water; others, still more advanced, have shrunk
to unimaginable density. But no doubt can be entertained that the
genesis of the stars is a single process of evolution which has
passed and is passing over a primordial distribution. Formerly it was
freely speculated that the birth of a star was an individual event like
the birth of an animal. From time to time two long extinct stars would
collide and be turned into vapour by the energy of the collision;
condensation would follow and life as a luminous body would begin
all over again. We can scarcely affirm that this will never occur and
that the sun is not destined to have a second or third innings; but it is
clear from the various relations traced among the stars that the
present stage of existence of the sidereal universe is the first
innings. Groups of stars are found which move across the sky with
common proper motion; these must have had a single origin and
cannot have been formed by casual collisions. Another abandoned
speculation is that lucid stars may be the exception, and that there
may exist thousands of dead stars for every one that is seen shining.
There are ways of estimating the total mass in interstellar space by
its gravitational effect on the average speed of the stars; it is found
that the lucid stars account for something approaching the total mass
admissible and the amount left over for dark stars is very limited.
Biologists and geologists carry back the history of the earth some
thousand million years. Physical evidence based on the rate of
transmutation of radioactive substances seems to leave no escape
from the conclusion that the older (Archaean) rocks in the earth’s
crust were laid down 1200 million years ago. The sun must have
been burning still longer, living (we now think) on its own matter
which dissolves bit by bit into radiation. According to the theoretical
time-scale, which seems best supported by astronomical evidence,
the beginning of the sun as a luminous star must be dated five billion
( ) years ago. The theory which assigns this date cannot be
trusted confidently, but it seems a reasonably safe conclusion that
the sun’s age does not exceed this limit. The future is not so
restricted and the sun may continue as a star of increasing
feebleness for 50 or 500 billion years. The theory of sub-atomic
energy has prolonged the life of a star from millions to billions of
years, and we may speculate on processes of rejuvenescence which
might prolong the existence of the sidereal universe from billions to
trillions of years. But unless we can circumvent the second law of
thermodynamics—which is as much as to say unless we can find
cause for time to run backwards—the ultimate decay draws surely
nearer and the world will at the last come to a state of uniform
changelessness.
Does this prodigality of matter, of space, of time, find its
culmination in Man?

Plurality of Worlds. I will here put together the present astronomical

evidence as to the habitability of other worlds. The popular idea that
an answer to this question is one of the main aims of the study of
celestial objects is rather disconcerting to the astronomer. Anything
that he has to contribute is of the nature of fragmentary hints picked
up in the course of investigations with more practicable and
commonplace purposes. Nevertheless, the mind is irresistibly drawn
to play with the thought that somewhere in the universe there may
be other beings “a little lower than the angels” whom Man may
regard as his equals—or perhaps his superiors.
It is idle to guess the forms that life might take in conditions
differing from those of our planet. If I have rightly understood the
view of palaeontologists, mammalian life is the third terrestrial
dynasty—Nature’s third attempt to evolve an order of life sufficiently
flexible to changing conditions and fitted to dominate the earth. Minor
details in the balance of circumstances must greatly affect the
possibility of life and the type of organism destined to prevail. Some
critical branch-point in the course of evolution must be negotiated
before life can rise to the level of consciousness. All this is remote
from the astronomer’s line of study. To avoid endless conjecture I
shall assume that the required conditions of habitability are not
unlike those on the earth, and that if such conditions obtain life will
automatically make its appearance.
We survey first the planets of the solar system; of these only
Venus and Mars seem at all eligible. Venus, so far as we know,
would be well adapted for life similar to ours. It is about the same
size as the earth, nearer the sun but probably not warmer, and it
possesses an atmosphere of satisfactory density. Spectroscopic
observation has unexpectedly failed to give any indication of oxygen
in the upper atmosphere and thus suggests a doubt as to whether
free oxygen exists on the planet; but at present we hesitate to draw
so definite an inference. If transplanted to Venus we might perhaps
continue to live without much derangement of habit—except that I
personally would have to find a new profession, since Venus is not a
good place for astronomers. It is completely covered with cloud or
mist. For this reason no definite surface markings can be made out,
and it is still uncertain how fast it rotates on its axis and in which
direction the axis lies. One curious theory may be mentioned though
it should perhaps not be taken too seriously. It is thought by some
that the great cavity occupied by the Pacific Ocean is a scar left by
the moon when it was first disrupted from the earth. Evidently this
cavity fulfils an important function in draining away superfluous
water, and if it were filled up practically all the continental area would
be submerged. Thus indirectly the existence of dry land is bound up
with the existence of the moon. But Venus has no moon, and since it
seems to be similar to the earth in other respects, it may perhaps be
inferred that it is a world which is all ocean—where fishes are
supreme. The suggestion at any rate serves to remind us that the
destinies of organic life may be determined by what are at first sight
irrelevant accidents.
The sun is an ordinary star and the earth is an ordinary planet,
but the moon is not an ordinary satellite. No other known satellite is
anything like so large in proportion to the planet which it attends. The
moon contains about ¹⁄₈₀ part of the mass of the earth which seems
a small ratio; but it is abnormally great compared with other
satellites. The next highest ratio is found in the system of Saturn
whose largest satellite Titan has ¹⁄₄₀₀₀ of the planet’s mass. Very
special circumstances must have occurred in the history of the earth
to have led to the breaking away of so unusual a fraction of the
mass. The explanation proposed by Sir George Darwin, which is still
regarded as most probable, is that a resonance in period occurred
between the solar tides and the natural free period of vibration of the
globe of the earth. The tidal deformation of the earth thus grew to
large amplitude, ending in a cataclysm which separated the great
lump of material that formed the moon. Other planets escaped this
dangerous coincidence of period, and their satellites separated by
more normal development. If ever I meet a being who has lived in
another world, I shall feel very humble in most respects, but I expect
to be able to boast a little about the moon.
Mars is the only planet whose solid surface can be seen and
studied; and it tempts us to consider the possibility of life in more
detail. Its smaller size leads to considerably different conditions; but
the two essentials, air and water, are both present though scanty.
The Martian atmosphere is thinner than our own but it is perhaps
adequate. It has been proved to contain oxygen. There is no ocean;
the surface markings represent, not sea and land, but red desert and
darker ground which is perhaps moist and fertile. A conspicuous
feature is the white cap covering the pole which is clearly a deposit
of snow; it must be quite shallow since it melts away completely in
the summer. Photographs show from time to time indubitable clouds
which blot out temporarily large areas of surface detail; clear
weather, however, is more usual. The air, if cloudless, is slightly
hazy. W. H. Wright has shown this very convincingly by comparing
photographs taken with light of different wave-lengths. Light of short
wave-length is much scattered by haze and accordingly the ordinary
photographs are disappointingly blurry. Much sharper surface-detail
is shown when visual yellow light is employed (a yellow screen being
commonly used to adapt visual telescopes for photography); being of
longer wave-length the visual rays penetrate the haze more easily.
[29] Still clearer detail is obtained by photographing with the long
infra-red waves.
Great attention has lately been paid to the determination of the
temperature of the surface of Mars; it is possible to find this by direct
measurement of the heat radiated to us from different parts of the
surface. The results, though in many respects informative, are
scarcely accurate and accordant enough to give a definite idea of the
climatology. Naturally the temperature varies a great deal between
day and night and in different latitudes; but on the average the
conditions are decidedly chilly. Even at the equator the temperature
falls below freezing point at sunset. If we accepted the present
determinations as definitive we should have some doubt as to
whether life could endure the conditions.
In one of Huxley’s Essays there occurs the passage “Until human
life is longer and the duties of the present press less heavily I do not
think that wise men will occupy themselves with Jovian or Martian
natural history.” To-day it would seem that Martian natural history is
not altogether beyond the limits of serious science. At least the
surface of Mars shows a seasonal change such as we might well
imagine the forest-clad earth would show to an outside onlooker.
This seasonal change of appearance is very conspicuous to the
attentive observer. As the spring in one hemisphere advances (I
mean, of course, the Martian spring), the darker areas, which are at
first few and faint, extend and deepen in contrast. The same regions
darken year after year at nearly the same date in the Martian
calendar. It may be that there is an inorganic explanation; the spring
rains moisten the surface and change its colour. But it is perhaps
unlikely that there is enough rain to bring about this change as a
direct effect. It is easier to believe that we are witnessing the annual
awakening of vegetation so familiar on our own planet.
The existence of oxygen in the Martian atmosphere supplies
another argument in support of the existence of vegetable life.
Oxygen combines freely with many elements, and the rocks in the
earth’s crust are thirsty for oxygen. They would in course of time
bring about its complete disappearance from the air, were it not that
the vegetation extracts it from the soil and sets it free again. If
oxygen in the terrestrial atmosphere is maintained in this way, it
would seem reasonable to assume that vegetable life is required to
play the same part on Mars. Taking this in conjunction with the
evidence of the seasonal changes of appearance, a rather strong
case for the existence of vegetation seems to have been made out.
If vegetable life must be admitted, can we exclude animal life? I
have come to the end of the astronomical data and can take no
responsibility for anything further that you may infer. It is true that the
late Prof. Lowell argued that certain more or less straight markings
on the planet represent an artificial irrigation system and are the
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