Figure 1: Share of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases in total emissions in 2004

Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007, AR4 Synthesis Report. Figure 2.1, latest official figure available

Figure 2: Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004

Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007 AR4

Table 1: Projected effects of climate change on different systems and sectors

System/Sector Projected changes

Approximately 20-30% of known plant and animal species are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed
1.5-2.5°C. This would cause major changes in ecosystem structure and function,
Ecosystems
species‟ ecological interactions and shifts in species‟ geographical ranges, with
mostly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem goods and
services.

Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local
mean temperature increases of up to 1 to 3°C depending on the crop, and then
Food
decrease beyond that in some regions. At lower latitudes, especially in
seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for
even small local temperature increases (1 to 2°C).

Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal

erosion, due to climate change and sea level rise. By the 2080s, many millions
Coasts
more people than today are projected to experience floods every year due to sea
level rise.

Industry, The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in
settlements and coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with
society climate-sensitive resources and those in areas prone to extreme weather events.

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected through, for

example, increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to
Health
extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrheal diseases; and the altered
spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.

Changes in precipitation and temperature lead to changes in runoff* and water

availability. Runoff is projected with high confidence to increase by 10 to 40% by
mid-century at higher latitudes and in some wet tropical areas and decrease by
Water 10 to 30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and dry tropics. There is also
high confidence that many semi-arid areas will suffer a decrease in water
resources due to climate change. Drought-affected areas are projected to
increase in extent.
* Surface runoff occurs when soil is infiltrated to full capacity and excess water (e.g. rain, melt water) flows over the lan d.

Source: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, Synthesis Report, 3.3.1 Impacts on systems and sectors, 2007

Climate change skepticism

People denying or doubting the existence or anthropogenic causes to climate change are abundant and
loud in the popular media. In scientific literature, however, a strong consensus exists that climate change
is happening and is caused mainly by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. A broad analysis of the
climate scientist community shows that 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the
field support the tenets of anthropogenic climate change outlined by the IPCC. No scientific body of
national or international standing disagrees with this view. The popular website, Skeptical Science, is
devoted to scientifically disproving the most widely used skeptic arguments as well as to initiate scientific
discussions regarding the issue. The table below summarizes the favorite skeptic arguments as well as
their rebuttal as described by the website.

Table 2: Most widely used skeptic arguments

Skeptic argument What the science really says

In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight
It‟s the Sun cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite
directions.
Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans
Climate has changed before
are now the dominant force

Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health &

It‟s not bad
environment far outweigh any positives.

There is no consensus 97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.

It‟s cooling All the indicators show that global warming is still happening.

Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, on

Models are unreliable
land, in the air and in the oceans.

Temperature record is The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured
unreliable by thermometers and satellites.

A large number of ancient mass extinction events have been strongly

Animals and plants can linked to global climate change. Because current climate change is
adapt to climate change so rapid, the way species typically adapt (e.g. through migration) is,
in most cases, simply not possible.

It hasn‟t warmed since 1998 For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.

Satellite measurements show Antarctica is gaining sea ice but losing

Antarctica is gaining ice land ice at an accelerating rate, which has implications for sea level
rise.
Source: Skeptical Science, Global Warming & Climate Change Myths, 2011

In 1997, the UNFCCC was complemented by another environmental international treaty, the Kyoto
Protocol, ratified by 191 countries. Under the Kyoto Protocol, 37 industrialized countries and the
European Community committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5.2% by
2012 against 1990 levels. While the Protocol stresses the importance of domestic action, it also allows
the utilization of „market based mechanisms‟, through which emission reductions achieved abroad may be
counted towards meeting domestic emission limitation targets.

Under the UNFCCC, Annex I countries are those with emission limitation commitments. This includes
industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition. Annex II countries are a subgroup of
Annex I and include industrialized countries that are committed to provide financial support to developing
countries to help meet climate change related costs. Developing countries with no financial or legally-
binding emissions limitation obligations are referred to as non-Annex I countries.
Figure 3: Kyoto Protocol world map

Source: Climate Focus

Figure 4: Timeline of the UNFCCC process

Source: Climate Focus

Figure 5: Transaction volume and project type by location

Note: Based on 394 observations, “Dominant project type” classified as type associated with largest volume by
country.
Source: Ecosystem Marketplace, Building Bridges, State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2010
Figure 6: The CDM Project Cycle

Project Design
Phase

Project Operation
Phase

Source: Climate Focus (2011)

Environmentally Sound Technologies (ESTs) are technologies that have the potential for
significantly improved environmental performance relative to other technologies. ESTs protect
the environment, are less polluting, use resources in a sustainable manner, recycle more of
their wastes and products, and handle all residual wastes in a more environmentally acceptable
way than the technologies for which they are substitutes. ESTs are not just individual
technologies. They can also be defined as total systems that include know-how, procedures,
goods and services, and equipment, as well as organizational and managerial procedures for
promoting environmental sustainability.

Defining environmentally sound technologies in an absolute sense is difficult since the

environmental performance of a technology depends upon its impacts on specific human
populations, biota and ecosystems, and the availability of supporting infrastructure and human
resources for the management, monitoring and maintenance of the technology, as well as the
sustainability of natural systems. The soundness of environmental technology is also influenced
by temporal and geographical factors, to the extent that some technologies may be
environmentally sound now but may be replaced in the future by even cleaner technologies.

Table 2. Some Examples of Ecological Engineering and Ecotechnology Applications

Application Examples

Ecosystems are used to reduce or Wastewater recycling inwetlands;

solve a pollution problem that would sludge recycling
otherwise be harmful to other
ecosystems.

Ecosystems are imitated or copied to Reconstructed wetlands; integrated

reduce or solve a resource problem. fishponds

The recovery of an ecosystem is Surface coal minerestoration; lake

nurtured after significant disturbance. and river restoration; restoration of
hazardous waste sites

Existing ecosystems are modified in Biomanipulation of species;

an ecologically sound way to solve biological control of eutrophication
an environmental problem. processes

Ecosystems are used for the benefit Sustainable agro-ecosystems;

of humans without destroying the sound renewable resource
ecological balance. harvesting