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A RECIPE FOR CHANGE:

Evolving ingredient
landscape

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AGENDA

The Numbers
The state of the population, urbanization, environment, and economic
fluctuation that will affect how food is grown, transported, and managed

Food Solutions
How is the food industry is addressing these realities—from new
food safety solutions to drones, food ingredients are evolving

A Glimpse of the Future

Ways technology is going to help the food industry
be proactive about change

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 THE NUMBERS

© 2014 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel.

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POPULATION
Soaring numbers, with some empty plates

7.2 Billion and growing

By the time we finish this presentation, 5200 babies will have been
born around the world, with a life expectancy averaging 68 years.

Unbalanced global calories

Worldwide, at least 2.6 million people die each year as a result
of being overweight or obese according to the WHO.
Meanwhile, about 105 million children are underweight.

Consumer Concern
Consumers are increasingly curious about what’s in their food,
where it came from, how it was grown, and how the package
that covered it is returned into the environment

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URBANIZATION
It’s not all skyline views

• By 2050, 64% of the inhabitants of the developing

world will be urbanized

• These cities will be marked by informal settlements,

also called “slums”

• Although hot beds for disease and crime, these

growing urban settlements are centers for
entrepreneurial spirit, ingenious adaptability, and
economic opportunity

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ENVIRONMENT
Adaptation will be key

Avocadoes cost how much?!?!

Anyone who calculates ingredient costs has seen
how rising crop prices are pinching the bottom line.

1,100 counties
1/3 of all counties in the US will face water shortages
by mid-century as a result of global warming.

2.8 billion people

31 countries around the world today face chronic
freshwater shortages.
In another 20 years, that number will increase to over
50 countries (2.8 billion people)
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ECONOMIC TURBULENCE

The price of a barrel of oil increased by 105%

Costs are sky
rocketing
between 2000-2010. If this pace continues, a
barrel of oil will cost almost $309 in 2030.

Economic growth and individual wealth are

Sharing
the pie
shifting diets from predominantly starch-based
to meat and dairy, which require more water.

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 FOOD SOLUTIONS

© 2014 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel.

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HOW ARE WE GOING TO FEED ALL THESE PEOPLE?

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THE GMO SHOWDOWN

THE GOOD
Bt cotton has cut the amount of
chemical insecticides applied globally
to crops by millions of pounds a year
Genetic engineering of papayas in
Hawaii helped save the industry from
a debilitating papaya virus
Rice, bananas, and numerous other
crops are on the cusp of genetic
engineering to help combat drought,
diminished soil nutrients, and
flood risks

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THE GMO SHOWDOWN

THE BAD
Herbicide resistant weeds have
developed in fields growing Roundup
Ready seeds, prompting the use of
stronger herbicide sprays
The inability to avoid contamination of
GMO crops into non-GMO fields has
wreaked havoc on farmers as well as
international trade.

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THE GMO SHOWDOWN

THE UGLY

Several foreign markets want nothing

to do with GMO crops, their presence
on the US soil puts trade at risk
Consumers in the UK and other
markets have long hailed against
“freakenfoods”, and consumer
opinion is shifting in the US as well.

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ADAPTING OUR PAST TO OUR FUTURE
Turning annual crops into perennials could mitigate against climate change

Prairies thrive without any pesticides,

fertilizer, or irrigation, and come back
annually, come drought or flood. The
soil remains healthy and full of
nutrients

The Land Institute is working on

perennializing such crops as wheat,
sorghum, sunflower, and others as
more resilient crops

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MAKING ENDS MEAT
New protein sources are emerging to fill a gap

Beyond Meat EXO

Entomophagy is the norm in most of the

Positioned as a meat company, Beyond
world. Progressive companies are trying
Meat gained the attention Bill Gates
to make the practice universal

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REPURPOSE FOR DEEPER CONSUMER CONNECTION
COFFEE FLOUR

Slated for
commercialization in 2015,
coffee flour is made from
the discarded coffee
cherry

Positioned as a way to
give coffee farmers a
safety net against poor
harvest and fluctuating
prices, coffee flour has
nutritional advantages
compared to wheat flour

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REPURPOSE FOR DEEPER CONSUMER CONNECTION
PISTACHIO POWER

Turkey exported 6,800 tons of

pistachios last year, and is now
planning to build a city powered by
the leftover shells

It will be home to more than

200,000 people, with 60% of the
city’s heating needs provided by
the burned shells

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BEER GETS REINCARNATED
A new life for spent grains

“Alaskan Brewing is committed to exercising

environmental stewardship in every aspect of our
The beer brewing industry
business. It is our aim to have a zero-net negative effect
yields a pound or more of
upon our environment by reclaiming and reusing at least
leftover grain per six-pack.
as much waste and emissions as we produce.”
Using spent grain in
innovative ways has
proved to be both
profitable and a way of
standing out in an
increasingly crowded
industry

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HAVING A POLICY IN PLACE IS THE FIRST STEP

“At the end of 2011 we sourced 24% of our agricultural

raw materials sustainably. Under our sustainable
sourcing roadmap to 2020, we will source 30% of them
sustainably by 2012, 50% by 2015 and 100% by 2020.”
- Unilever’s goals

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MANUFACTURER IN THE MIRROR
A sustainability policy forces manufacturers to address

Your ingredient or product impact from cradle to grave

How climate change and water scarcity will affect your

business

Consumers' social and environmental concerns about

your products

A plan for both products and distribution models that

work in challenging socio-economic circumstances

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 A GLIMPSE OF THE FUTURE

© 2014 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel.

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URBANANA

A HUGE BANANA
FARM IN THE
MIDDLE OF PARIS

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ASIAN CAIRNS

FARM LIVING
IN THE BIG CITY

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LAB BURGERS

ALL THE BEEF

NONE OF
THE COW

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DRONES

DRONES
DELIVERING FOOD
WHEREVER YOU
NEED IT

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DNA BARCODING

STOP HAVING TO
ASK WTF?
(what the fish?)

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IN SUMMARY

1 2 3 Have a plan

Having a plan to
address every part of
your product cycle is
Technology is
your friend

Even if something
seems expensive to
implement, the benefits
Don’t ignore
the little guy

Planning around the future

urban poor could lead to
the type of product loyalty
critical for long term could save time, money, that’s been missing in
relevance in the future and even lives developed markets for
some time

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 NIRVANA CHAPMAN
Senior Consultant

Tel +1 312 450 6166

Email [email protected]
Twitter @mintelnews

© 2014 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel

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