Chapter Two
Chapter Two
LITERATURE REVIEW
Exchange rate is the rate at which a currency is exchanged for another currency. It is referred to
as the ratio at which a unit of currency of one country is expressed in terms of another currency.
The rate is normally determined in the foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange market is
a market where currencies of different countries are bought and sold. It is a market where the
values of local and foreign currencies are determined. As noted by Jhingan, the national
currencies of all countries are the stock-in-trade of the foreign exchange market, and as such, it is
the largest market to be found around the world which functions in every country. (Jhingan
2004).
Also, Bradley and Moles defined exchange rate as the price of a unit of foreign currency against
domestic currency. (Bradley and Moles 2002) Exchange rate is the value of the one unit of
foreign currency against local currency and Exchange rate serves as the basic link between the
local and the overseas market for various goods, services and financial assets (Reid and Joshua,
2004). This study considers exchange rate to mean the rate at which a unit of foreign currencies
are exchanged for Nigerian Naira. Omagwa posit that exchange rates like any other commodity
influenced by a wide range of factors such as inflation rates and interest rates. Murthy and Sree
argued that exchange rate enables comparison of prices of commodities quoted in diverse
currencies. (Murthy and Sree, 2003) . It was found that since the early 1970s, foreign rate
exchange system had been a floating one in most countries. The findings were that such nations
permitted exchange rates to change in the market place from day to day as per market forces.
(Thomas, 2006)
Before this eventuality central banks of nations intervened in determinations of the exchange
rate. This meant that international transactions were never subjected to exchange rate
fluctuations risk and as such international transactions were less dynamic. He further stated that
since the collapse of this exchange rate system it is markets forces that determine the exchange
rate of a nation’s currency. Thus such rates keep on fluctuating as per market forces and
therefore exposing international transactions to exchange fluctuation risks. The table below
illustrates the movement of the USD, Euro, GBP, JPY and CFAFr to the Nigerian naira exchange
(Table 1: Major foreign currencies mean exchange rates to the Naira, years 2006 to April 2019)
It was explained that exchange rate variation is significant in determining a country’s balance of
trade. (Adetayo, Dionco and Oladejo (2004). According to Omagwa, fluctuations in exchange
rates impacts on prices of imports directly thus inversely affecting a country’s external sector.
(Omagwa, 2005). Murthy and Sree postulated that country’s foreign debt is significantly affected
by the fluctuations in exchange rates. (Murthy and Sree, 2003). The central bank typically under
a fixed exchange rate system will set a par value between foreign and domestic currencies which
Numerous factors determine exchange rates, and all are related to the trading relationship
between two countries. Remember, exchange rates are relative, and are expressed as a
comparison of the currencies of two countries. According to Jason Van Bergen (2017), the below
are some of the principal determinants of the exchange rate between two countries.
exhibit a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other
currencies. During the last half of the 20th century, the countries with low inflation
included Japan, Germany and Switzerland, while the U.S. and Canada achieved low
inflation only later. Those countries with higher inflation typically see depreciation in
their currency in relation to the currencies of their trading partners. This is also usually
ii. Differentials in Interest Rates: Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates are all highly
correlated. By manipulating interest rates, central banks exert influence over both
inflation and exchange rates, and changing interest rates impact inflation and currency
values. Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a higher return relative to other
countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and cause the exchange
rate to rise. The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if inflation in the
country is much higher than in others, or if additional factors serve to drive the currency
down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates - that is, lower interest
iii. Current-Account Deficits: The current account is the balance of trade between a country
and its trading partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services,
interest and dividends. A deficit in the current account shows the country is spending
more on foreign trade than it is earning, and that it is borrowing capital from foreign
sources to make up the deficit. In other words, the country requires more foreign currency
than it receives through sales of exports, and it supplies more of its own currency than
foreigners demand for its products. The excess demand for foreign currency lowers the
country's exchange rate until domestic goods and services are cheap enough for
foreigners, and foreign assets are too expensive to generate sales for domestic interests.
The foreign exchange rate of a country can either be any of the following:
Fixed Or Pegged Exchange Rates: The fixed exchange rate is a phenomenon which
occurs when the rate of a currency against other currencies is fixed. Under the pegged
exchanged rates, all exchange transactions take place at an exchange rate that is
determined by the monetary authorities (Adetifa, 2005). This connotes that the exchange
rate of a currency to other currencies is stable. This allows for an increase in reserve of
the country if there is a favourable balance of trade. International trade is encouraged
because prices of goods are more predictable and long term capital flows in an orderly
Flexible Or Fluctuating Exchange Rates: This occurs when the currency of a country
against other currencies is not stable. The rates are determined by market forces. This
implies that the market is unpredictable, thus, leading to economic instability, high risk,
fluctuating exchange rates, if there is an excess supply of a currency, the value of that
currency in foreign exchange market will fall (Ayodele, 2014). This will lead to
Murthy and Sree (2003) define financial performance as the ability to leverage operational and
and financial objectives. A wide range of measures are used in measuring firm’s financial
performance including; profitability measures, liquidity measures and debt measures (Reid and
Joshua, 2004). Financial performance, for the sake of the research is conceptualized and
described as Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on
Equity (ROE). All organizations have the financial performance measures as part of their
and non-financial indicators. Proponents of financial performance measures argue that they are
necessary because of the primary objectives of companies which is to maximize shareholders
wealth by making a profit and maintaining growth and development. One of the ways to analyze
financial performance is to calculate key financial ratios over the last three to five years. Ratios
can be compared year over year to measure progress and performance. Financial ratios are a
comparison of two or more elements of financial data. They are expressed as percentages (62 per
cent) or as ratios (4:1). Bradley and Moles (2002); and Iliemena and Amedu (2019) show that the
ultimate goal of any organization is profit maximization. therefore, profitability measures are
widely used as compared to other measures. Profitability measures comprises of return on capital
Capital Employed = total assets less current liabilities (net asset). This is also equal to total
Capital Employed maybe based on net book value (NBV), gross book value or replacement cost.
ROA is calculated as: Profit before interest and Tax(PBIT)/ Total Asset x100
ROE is calculated as: Profit before interest and Tax (PBIT)/ Shareholders’ equity x 100
2.1.5 Exchange Rates Fluctuations And Financial Performance Of Oil And Gas
Companies
Exchange rate fluctuations influence a country’s prices through import prices of consumption
and intermediate goods (Watkins, 2014). Currency fluctuations enter directly into the import
price, producer price and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Exchange rate fluctuations affect
domestic prices through three channels; first is through prices of imported consumption goods,
exchange rate fluctuation affects domestic prices directly, second is through prices of imported
intermediate goods, exchange rate fluctuation affects production cost of domestically produced
goods and third is through prices of domestic goods priced in foreign currency (Gatobu, 2013).
The fluctuations in currency exchange rates could generate significant gains or losses and the
entry of these into the income statement could produce a distorted impression of what is
happening to financial institution concerned (Watkins, 2014). Jamal and Khalil (2011)
documented that the more a company is involved in international trade, the more its accounting
exposure and unless a company hedges this risk then it faces financial gains and/or losses from
according to Gatobu (2013) have an effect on the Net Income of multinational companies as
posted to either income statement or owners equity reserves. This is added to their unending
strive to meet up with operational and regulatory demands which could force them out of the
Stock Exchange Market, making their survival a hard one. Even in the midst of exchange
fluctuations, some conglomerates were among the delisted companies from Nigerian Stock
Exchange as reported in an earlier study by Iliemena & Goodluck (2019). Foreign exchange
fluctuations affect the companies’ imports, accounts payables, export sales and accounts
receivables; with net effect on the Net Income of multinational companies through the income
statement or the owners’ equity reserves. This outcome however seems exaggerated as
conglomerates continuously report more profit in Nigeria in the midst of exchange rate
fluctuations. Against this backdrop, this research paper seeks to examine the effects of exchange
companies in the oil and gas sector. These metrics provide insights into various aspects of the
operating in this industry. Here are some key financial performance metrics commonly used in
the net profit generated with the initial investment. In the oil and gas sector, it reflects the
ability to generate operational cash flows without accounting for interest, taxes, and non-
cash expenses.
comparing its net debt to EBITDA. It indicates the company's ability to manage its debt
Reserves Replacement Ratio: This metric evaluates the ability of an oil and gas company
to replace depleted reserves with new discoveries and acquisitions. It's a critical indicator
of long-term sustainability.
Production Growth Rate: Production growth rate measures the increase in oil and gas
production over a specific period. It reflects a company's ability to expand its operations
generating profits. It indicates how well the company is using its shareholders'
Free Cash Flow (FCF): FCF represents the cash generated by a company's operations
after deducting capital expenditures. It shows the company's ability to fund operations,
Asset Turnover Ratio: The asset turnover ratio measures the efficiency of a company's
utilization of its assets to generate revenue. In the oil and gas sector, it reflects the
Oil and Gas Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratio: The R/P ratio indicates the number of
years a company's proved reserves would last at the current production rate. It's a key
indicator of the company's reserve life and potential future revenue streams.
1. Oil Price Volatility: Nigeria's economy heavily depends on oil exports, making it
susceptible to shifts in global oil prices. When oil prices rise, Nigeria's export revenue
increases, boosting the supply of foreign exchange, which can lead to an appreciation of
the local currency (Naira). Conversely, falling oil prices can strain foreign exchange
2. Macroeconomic Indicators: Inflation, interest rates, and economic growth play a vital role
in shaping exchange rate movements. High inflation erodes purchasing power, leading to
currency depreciation. Interest rate differentials can attract or deter foreign investment,
demand and supply of foreign exchange. A trade deficit, where imports exceed exports,
can lead to pressure on the Naira's value due to increased demand for foreign currency.
4. Foreign Investment: The level of foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio
investment can influence exchange rates. High FDI inflows can strengthen the Naira,
5. Political and Economic Stability: Political uncertainty and economic instability can
negatively impact investor confidence, leading to capital flight and currency depreciation.
6. Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) plays a critical role in exchange
rate management. Interventions in the foreign exchange market and changes in monetary
i. Inflation: Depreciation of the Naira can lead to imported inflation, as the cost of imported
goods rises. This can erode purchasing power and affect living standards.
ii. Imports and Exports: A weaker Naira can make imports more expensive, potentially
leading to a balance of payments issue. On the other hand, a stronger Naira can hurt
export competitiveness.
iii. Foreign Debt: Exchange rate fluctuations can affect the cost of servicing foreign-
denominated debt. A depreciation of the Naira can increase the debt burden.
iv. Investment: Unpredictable exchange rate movements can deter foreign investment due to
2.1.9 Impact Of Exchange Rate on Revenue and Profits in the Oil and Gas Sector
Exchange rate fluctuations wield a substantial influence on the revenue and profits of companies
operating in the oil and gas sector. This impact is particularly pronounced in economies like
Nigeria, where the sector plays a vital role. Here's a closer look at how exchange rate movements
can affect revenue and profits in the oil and gas industry:
Revenue Fluctuations:
i. Currency Denomination of Oil Prices: Oil is globally traded in US Dollars (USD). When
the local currency weakens against the USD, the selling price of oil in local currency
terms tends to rise. This can lead to an apparent increase in revenue for oil and gas
ii. Export Earnings: For oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria, a weaker local currency
can lead to higher export earnings in terms of the local currency. This can directly
2. Profit Margins:
i. Cost Structure: The oil and gas sector involves significant operational costs, including
USD. A weaker local currency can lead to higher costs for companies as they need to
convert more local currency to USD for these expenses, potentially squeezing profit
margins.
ii. Imported Equipment and Services: The sector often relies on imported equipment and
specialized services for operations. A weaker local currency can raise the cost of imports,
iii. Tax Implications: Taxation in the oil and gas sector is usually linked to revenue or
profits. A weaker local currency can lead to higher tax liabilities in terms of the local
Investment Decisions:
Companies may delay or modify capital-intensive projects if the exchange rate risk
becomes too high, impacting potential revenue and profits in the long run.
ii. Financing Costs: If companies have USD-denominated debt, a weakening local currency
iii. Hedging Strategies: Companies may implement hedging strategies to mitigate the impact
of exchange rate fluctuations. These strategies can help stabilize revenue and profit
i. Accounting Impact: Exchange rate fluctuations can affect the translation of foreign
operations' financials into the parent company's reporting currency. This can impact the
ii. Investor Confidence: Exchange rate volatility can influence investor perceptions of risk
and stability. Companies that are better equipped to manage or mitigate these risks might
2.1.10 Relationship Between Exchange Rate And Investment In The Oil And Gas Sector
The relationship between exchange rates and investment in the oil and gas sector is significant
and intricate due to the global nature of the industry and its exposure to international markets.
Exchange rate fluctuations, which refer to the changes in the value of one currency compared to
another, can have a profound impact on various aspects of investment decisions, project
economics, and overall industry performance within the oil and gas sector. Here's a detailed
Cost of Investment:
Exchange rate fluctuations affect the cost of investing in the oil and gas sector, particularly in
projects that require imported equipment, technology, and services. When the local currency
weakens against foreign currencies (such as the US Dollar), the cost of purchasing these imports
increases. As a result, companies might need to allocate more funds to acquire the necessary
Project Economics:
Exchange rate movements influence the financial viability of oil and gas projects. Fluctuations
impact the revenue earned from oil and gas sales, as these commodities are typically priced in
US Dollars. When the local currency depreciates, the revenue in local currency terms may
increase even if the underlying commodity prices remain stable. Conversely, a stronger local
currency can lead to reduced revenue when converted to the local currency.
3. Investment Decision-Making:
Exchange rate volatility introduces uncertainty into investment decisions. Companies evaluating
potential projects must consider the potential impact of currency fluctuations on project costs,
revenues, and overall profitability. Investors and lenders also assess these risks when deciding
whether to finance or invest in projects. Exchange rate stability can enhance the predictability of
investment returns.
Foreign Investment:
The attractiveness of the oil and gas sector to foreign investors is influenced by exchange rate
stability. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and portfolio investment are more likely to flow into
countries with stable exchange rates, as currency risk can affect the potential returns on
investment. Exchange rate volatility might deter foreign investors from committing to long-term
projects.
Exchange rate stability affects a company's access to financing. A stable local currency can make
it easier to secure both domestic and international financing, as lenders and investors are more
confident when currency risk is minimized. A weaker local currency can increase the cost of
Hedging Strategies:
Companies often use financial derivatives like currency forwards and options to hedge against
exchange rate risk. By employing these instruments, companies can lock in favorable exchange
rates for future transactions, ensuring that currency fluctuations do not adversely affect their
Government Policies:
Government policies, such as exchange rate controls or interventions by the central bank, can
influence the stability of the local currency. Clear and consistent policies can provide a
movements.
8. International Competitiveness:
A stable local currency can enhance the international competitiveness of the oil and gas sector.
When the currency is stable, companies can better predict their costs and plan for long-term
The Purchasing Power Parity Theory (Ppp) – Menon And Viswanathan (2005)
Purchasing Power Parity theory posits that the value of homogenous goods is similar in different
countries based on the currency of each country. By, implication, when purchasing power is
similar in different countries then the exchange rates between the country’s currencies will be at
equilibrium. This is similar to the earlier postulation of Reid and Joshua (2004) that ratio of
commodities price levels should be equal the country’s currency. By PPP, the prices of same
commodity is different in different countries, it could be high in country A and low in B, and
vice versa. This can be said to have direct implication on cost of sales. According Ross (2008), a
country’s currency may be incorrectly valued whereby money has no purchasing power against
the country’s commodities level. The main challenge of this belief is in measuring Purchasing
Power Parity constructed from price indexes given that different countries use different goods to
determine their price level (Reid, 2004). This theory is relevant for this study as it explains a
country’s currency value over another country’s currency. This theory argues that in the
equilibrium exchange rate is one that ensures that the value exchanged can purchase the same
performance in the oil and gas sector in Nigeria, Aloku (2009) analyzed the effect of interest
rate, exchange rate on the Nigerian economic growth using the annual data between 1975 and
2008. Using Ordinary Least Square technique, the result revealed that interest rate and exchange
rate exerted negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Akpan (2009) studied the
relationship between exchange rate and economic growth in an emerging petroleum based
economy using the annual data for the period of 1970 to 2007. Using Ordinary Least Square
(OLS) technique, the result revealed that there is a positive relationship between exchange rate
and economic growth in Nigeria. Opaluwa, Umeh and Ameh (2010) examined the effect of
exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigerian manufacturing sector during a twenty (20) year period
(1986 - 2005). The argument was that fluctuations in exchange rate adversely affected output of
the manufacturing sector. This was because Nigerian manufacturing was highly dependent on
import of inputs and capital goods paid for in foreign exchange whose rate of exchange was
unstable. The methodology adopted for the study was empirical. The econometric tool of
regression was used for the analysis. In the model that was used, manufacturing output
employment rate and foreign private investment were used as the explanatory variables. The
result of the regression analysis shows that coefficients of the variables carried both positive and
negative signs. The study shows adverse effect and is all statistically significant in the final
analysis.
Shehu (2012) examined the relationship between exchange rate volatility, trade flows and
economic growth in Nigeria using the annual data for period of 1970 to 2009. Using a Vector
Auto-regression (VAR) technique, the result revealed that exchange rate volatility has positive
Adeniran (2012) studied the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the Nigerian economic
growth using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2010. Using ordinary least square (OLS)
technique, the study revealed that exchange rate has positive impact on economic growth in
Nigeria.
Dada and Oyeranti (2012) examined the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth
in Nigeria using the annual data for the period of 1970 to 2009. Using Vector Auto-regression
(VAR) technique, the studied revealed that economic growth is negatively related to exchange
rate in the long run while in the short run, a positive relationship exist between the two variables
in Nigeria. Asher (2012) examined the impact exchange rate fluctuation on the Nigerian
economic growth using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2010. Using Ordinary Least Square
(OLS) technique, the study revealed that exchange rate has a positive effect on the GDP.
Obansa (2012) investigated the relationship between exchange rate, interest rate and economic
growth in Nigeria using annual data for the period of 1970 to 2010. Using Vector Auto-
regression (VRR) technique, the study revealed that exchange rate has a significant impact on
Fapetu (2013) investigated the relationship between foreign exchange and the Nigerian economic
growth using the annual data for the period of 1960 to 2012. Using Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
technique, the result revealed that exchange rate explained and accounted for about 99%
variation in economic growth. Owoeye, and Ogunmakin (2013) examined exchange rate
volatility and bank performance in Nigeria. This study investigated the impact of unstable
exchange rate on bank performance in Nigeria using two proxies for bank performance, namely
loan loss to total advances ratio and capital deposit ratio. Government expenditure, interest rate,
real gross domestic product were added to exchange rate as independent variables. The two
models specified show that the impact of exchange rate on bank performance is sensitive to the
type of proxy used for bank performance. Loan loss to total advance ratio shows that fluctuating
exchange rate may affect the ability of lenders to manage loans resulting into high level of bad
loans while capital deposit ratio does not have significant relationship with exchange rate. A core
recommendation of this study is that a stable exchange rate is needed to improve the ability of
bank, in Nigeria. The study sought to determine how the risk involved in foreign exchange can
various exchange risks which the treasurer of the selected bank is exposed to in its foreign
exchange transaction; to investigate how these risks can be effectively managed and to identify
risk and exposure management techniques required for treasury management. The selected firm
used for this study was a Commercial Bank of International Standard, located in Lagos, the
business center of Nigeria. The study exploited both the primary and secondary sources of
responses from the respondents. A non-parametric measure based on chi-square statistics was
employed to test the hypothesis and determine if there is any association between foreign
exchange trading and risk management issues. Spot transaction technique was founded to be
effective in minimizing foreign exchange risk. Ayodele (2014) evaluated empirically the impact
of exchange rate on the Nigerian economy. The study investigated how economic induces such
as exchange rate and inflation rate affects changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria.
The study used Secondary data collected from Annual Reports of Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN), Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), and Nigeria Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) which were analyzed through the multiple regression analysis using the Ordinary Least
Squares (OLS) method. The result showed that the two factors –exchange rate and inflation rate-
impact significantly on the Gross Domestic Product and economic growth of Nigeria. Exchange
rate has a negative impact on the GDP because as it increases, the economic growth is negatively
affected, while inflation rate exerts a positive impact on GDP, indicating that firms are more
willing to produce when inflation rate is high and vice versa. The outcome of the research was
that the government should make Nigerian economic climate investment friendly by restoring
security of lives and property, infrastructural development and improvement of local production
in order to reduce the pressure on the dollar and that this would go a long way to boost the
exchange rate in favour of the naira and hence improve the Gross Domestic Product.
Uduakobong and Enobong (2015) conducted an empirical analysis on the relationship between
exchange rate movements and economic growth in Nigeria using annual data spanning 1970-
2011. Specifically, the study sought to: examine the relationship between exchange rate and
economic growth; and also to determine the nature and the direction of causality between
exchange rate and economic growth in Nigeria. Employing the Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
technique and the Granger Causality Test, the study revealed the existence of a positive and
insignificant relationship between exchange rate and economic growth in Nigeria. The results
also indicate that there is no causality between exchange rate and economic growth in Nigeria.
Goodluck and Iliemena (2019) investigated the effect of financial crises which include exchange
rate fluctuation on corporate survival using a sample of 69staff of selected manufacturing firms
in Nigeria. The methodology adopted was Pearson product moment correlation. Analyses reveal