The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses

ISSN: 1835-7156 (Print), ISSN: 2833-4140 (Online)

Volume 16, Issue 2, 2024
https://doi.org/10.18848/1835-7156/CGP/v16i02/27-64

Original Research

Effects of Climate Change on Cotton Production and

Level of Adaptation by Producers and the Cameroon
Cotton Development Company

Yaouba Bassirou, University of Douala, Cameroon

Ndzana Georges Martial, University of Dschang, Cameroon
Lawe Djague Theodore, Cameroon Cotton Development Company, Cameroon
Ndoh Mbue Innocent, University of Douala, Cameroon
Bitondo Dieudonné, University of Douala, Cameroon
Received: 02/20/2023; Accepted: 11/27/2023; Published: 04/03/2024

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Abstract: Cotton, grown in the northern part of Cameroon, remains one of the pillars of the Cameroonian
economy, employing between 150,000 and 200,000 producers, with an additional 2 million people living
indirectly from its production; it now accounts for 14.1 percent of Cameroon’s agricultural gross domestic product
(GDP) exports, but its cultivation is known to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Despite its importance, few
studies have examined the level of adaptation of cotton producers to the effects of climate change and assessed
the level of compliance of Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON) with the implementation
and adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices in cotton basins. Production and rainfall data were
collected from SODECOTON, and temperature data were obtained from the Agency for Aerial Navigation Safety
in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA) and the Cameroon Civil Aviation Authority (CCAA). Associations between
rainfall, temperature, and cotton production are measured by linear regression and correlation tests. The
autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to forecast cotton production; assessment of
levels of perception and adaptation to climate change was determined by field surveys of producers. Gaps
between current agricultural practices and a checklist of CSA requirements were identified. Statistical tests
showed a positive correlation between cotton production, rainfall, and temperature. The simulation of future
production from 2022 to 2025 revealed that for rainfall, two out of four years predicted a decrease in production,
compared with three out of four years for temperature compared with 2021. One hundred percent of producers
surveyed perceive climate change through the irregularity of precipitation. Adaptation strategies developed by
100 percent of producers include crop rotation practices, crop diversification, use of improved seeds, and use of
mineral fertilizers. The negative effects of climate change could be mitigated by adaptation measures based on
compliance with CSA requirements.

Keywords: Climate Change, Northern Cameroon, Sodecoton, Cotton, CSA, Simulation

Introduction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has defined climate change as any
change in the climate over time, caused either by natural variability or by human activity, and
manifested as an increase in average land surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, and the
frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as droughts, floods, and cyclones (IPCC 2007).

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Climate change, particularly the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme
events, has had a negative impact on food security and terrestrial ecosystems, contributing to
desertification and land degradation in many parts of Africa (Folefack 2010; IPCC 2019).
Climate change is one of the threats to agricultural development in African countries today
(Doukpolo 2014). Cotton cultivation is one of the agricultural sectors where Africa is
investing, and according to Peter et al. (2011), Burkina Faso would be the main cotton-
producing country, followed by Benin, Mali, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon.
Cotton is still mainly grown in the northern region of Cameroon (the North, the Far
North, and part of Adamawa), which has been identified as an ideal region for cotton
cultivation. However, this region of the country is at recurrent risk of food deficits due to
climatic hazards, such as floods, drought, irregular rainfall, heat waves, strong winds, dust
storms, land movement, and land erosion (Gergely 2009; Tsalefac et al. 2015; Global Water
Partnership [GWP] 2018; Bang, Miles, and Gordon 2019; Ntali, Lyimo, and Dakyaga 2022).
For example, during August 2020, torrential rains fell in the Far North region, causing
flooding and significant damage, and five out of the six divisions in the region suffered the

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devastating effects of flooding both in material and human terms (International Federation
of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies [IFRC] 2021).
Cotton is the raw material of Cameroon Cotton Development Company
(SODECOTON), established in 1974 in the northern part of Cameroon, where it operates in
an area known as the cotton plain (Figure 1).
SODECOTON is a mixed economy company in which the Cameroonian state is the
majority shareholder with 59 percent of the shares. The rest of the capital is held by the
Cameroon Real Estate Investment Company (SMIC) and Geocoton at 11 and 30 percent,
respectively (Fok et al. 2019). SODECOTON’s mission is structuring the cotton sector in
Cameroon and supporting producers in different zones in the fight against climate
variability; it is responsible for (1) supervising cotton producers and proposing strategies to
cope with this phenomenon; (2) providing improved seeds that are more resistant to the
variability of certain climatic parameters; (3) supplying producers with inputs; and (4)
proposing the best system for modernizing cotton production and rotation crops.
SODECOTON directly employs more than 12,000 people, and cotton is the mainstay of
the economy of the northern regions of Cameroon (Adamawa, North, and Far North), with
(1) 150,000 to 200,000 producers, (2) 2 million people, (3) 60 percent of net agricultural
income, (4) 6 percent of non-oil exports, and (5) 14.1 percent of agricultural GDP exported
(Mohamadou 2020). Cotton thus remains the lung of the economy of northern Cameroon
since it occupies an important place in production systems, with nearly 89 percent of farms
(Folefack 2010). SODECOTON’s ambition is to increase seed cotton production to 600,000
tons in the next 2025 season (Texier 2017), compared with a production of 369,700 tons in
the previous 2021/2022 season.

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

This increase in production would certainly allow Cameroon to become the leading
cotton-producing country in Africa. However, the achievement of this objective of increasing
cotton production could be slowed by various factors, such as climate change. It is therefore
important to analyze the impact of climate change on cotton production. Indeed, the
consequences of climate variations are increasingly felt in various sectors of activity
(agriculture, fishing, livestock, etc.). The agricultural sector, which is highly dependent on
climatic stimuli, is strongly threatened by climate change. Moreover, the control of climate
change has become one of the major challenges of public policies today, given the capacity
of the climate to negatively affect the economic development of countries.
However, Lipper et al. (2014) indicate that climate change should not lead to paralysis; the
authors encourage the agricultural sector to engage in the practice of CSA, which can
potentially reduce food insecurity and poverty in the short term and help reduce the threat of
climate change to food security in the longer term. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an
approach to guide the management of agriculture in the era of climate change (Lipper and
Zilberman 2018). The CSA approach therefore advocates a series of activities to be carried out

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by policy-makers and farmers to strengthen agricultural systems and livelihoods and reduce the
risk of food insecurity and is based on three main objectives, namely, (1) to increase agricultural
productivity and incomes in a sustainable manner; (2) to adapt and build resilience to climate
change; and (3) to reduce and/or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions to the extent possible
(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], n.d.).
CSA systems include different elements, such as (1) management of land, crops, livestock,
aquaculture, and capture fisheries, that is, (2) ecosystem and landscape management to
maintain ecosystem services important for food security, agricultural development, adaptation,
and mitigation; (3) services to farmers and land managers, which can enable them to better
manage the risks and impacts of climate change and implement mitigation measures; and (4)
changes in the broader food system, including demand-side measures and value chain
intervention, that enhance the benefits of climate change smart agriculture.
The Twenty-Sixth United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow was
a reminder that most countries in the world, including Cameroon, are witnessing the
disastrous impacts of climate change. In response to this situation, the Cameroonian
government has dedicated one of the overall objectives of the National Development Strategy
2030 (SND30) to the fight against climate change, namely, “strengthen climate change
adaptation and mitigation measures and environmental management to ensure sustainable
and inclusive economic growth and social development” (Ministry of Economy Planning and
Land Management [MINEPAT] 2020). In 2020, Cameroon adopted a National Climate
Smart Agricultural Development Plan and developed a “Climate Resilient Agricultural
Investment Plan” to implement the CSA approach in its agricultural production system
(World Bank et al. 2020)

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Cameroon intends to redouble its efforts to mobilize resources from bilateral and
multilateral funding. Within this framework, a multisectoral mission from the Green
Climate Fund and Global Environment Facility units at FAO headquarters in Rome,
accompanied by the Forestry Officer for Central Africa, was deployed to Yaounde (political
capital of Cameroon) from February 21 to 25, 2022. The objective of this mission was to meet
with high-level political and technical authorities and partners to identify Cameroon’s
climate change resilience priorities and highlight areas where the FAO (2022) can support
the government’s efforts to mobilize climate finance.
Multilateral and bilateral donors are present in Cameroon to help finance the development
of agricultural and rural projects, including the World Bank, the Islamic Development Bank,
Germany (AFD–C2D), the German Development Bank (KFW/GIZ, especially for forest
conservation), IFAD, FAO, and the European Union (World Bank et al. 2020).
These partnerships offer many funding opportunities to develop CSA approaches, such
as the World Bank, which has provided several grants to states: (1) USD $100 million in
Development Policy Support to Cameroon to support inclusive and robust growth and build

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the country’s resilience to climate change (World Bank 2022a), (2) a USD $100 million
International Development Association credit (including USD $50 million from the Crisis
Response Facility) to help Cameroon strengthen food and nutrition security and increase the
resilience of targeted households and producers to climate shocks (World Bank 2022b), and
(3) a set of climate action targets for the 2021 to 2025 period, scaling up current five-year
investments to approximately USD $200 billion, with the aim of helping countries take
ambitious climate action (World Bank 2018).
In the face of the increasing impacts of climate change on the lives and livelihoods of
populations, particularly the poorest, these financing plans will significantly strengthen
measures to support adaptation and resilience to climate change. Thus, in Cameroon,
agricultural institutions and public and private sector enterprises are also encouraged to
promote the implementation of the CSA approach.
All priority investments in Cameroon’s National Investment Plan for Climate Smart
Agriculture portfolio are directly integrated into the country’s National Agricultural
Investment Plan and help support Cameroon’s priority goals of increasing sustainable
productivity and food security and improving rural livelihoods to lift people out of poverty
(World Bank et al. 2020). For example, in Cameroon, the ABC-PADER program, implemented
by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and partners such as
the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER) and the MINEPAT, aims to
increase the economic performance of private actors in the agriculture and livestock sector in
the country’s cotton-growing regions by promoting climate-smart production systems. The
main beneficiaries of this project are the 150,000 cotton farmers, food crop producers, and
livestock breeders in the Adamawa, North, and Far North regions (Mabel and Paul 2022).

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Finally, communication on CSA in Cameroon and the training of actors in the planning,
programming, budgeting, and monitoring chain in project design, monitoring, and evaluation
are also essential to mobilizing national and international funds (World Bank et al. 2020).
From the perspective of controlling the effects of climate change on agricultural
activities, this study proposes to address the impact of rainfall and temperature on seed cotton
production to seek to understand the resilience of cotton producers to mitigate and reduce
the effects of climate change on their daily activities. This research will also attempt to predict
future seed cotton production at SODECOTON over four years (2022–2025) and to assess
SODECOTON’s level of compliance with CSA requirements.
This article is presented as follows: after an abstract and introduction, the methods
section analysis the data; the results section shows the estimation and analysis of the data; the
discussion section examines the results in relation to other research; and the conclusion
section presents recommendations.

Methods

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Study Area
Our study area was located in the cotton-growing zone of the northern region of Cameroon
(Figure 1); cotton production is thus divided into different zones, identified as being the most
favorable for cotton cultivation, namely, the dry zone (yellow color), the intermediate zone
(light green color), and the wet zone (dark green color). The sociological framework of the
study therefore takes into account all cotton producers in the Cameroonian cotton basin. It
also includes the managers of the support structure for cotton producers, namely, the
Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON), which advises producers on
how to better cope with climatic hazards.

Figure 1: Map of Study Areas

Source: Data adapted from the Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON)

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

The Study Sample

The objective of sampling is to provide sufficient information to make inferences about

producers. Because producers are scattered throughout the vast cotton basin, snowball
sampling was chosen. To ensure that the survey sample is representative, a typology of
respondent selections in cotton production in the study area was conducted. By hypothesis,
it is assumed that the adaptation strategies implemented by cotton producers to cope with
climate change will be a function of perceptions and realities on the ground. Thus, the
respondents were divided into two categories: (1) the group of producers involved in cotton
production and (2) the managers of SODECOTON, which represents the supervisory
structure for cotton producers in Cameroon.
Thirty-seven production units were selected for the different survey sites, including the
Research and Development Department of SODECOTON. The actors of interest to the study
at the level of the producers’ organizations are the elderly, adults, and youth. The choice of
these localities is justified by the fact that they are well organized and produce a greater
quantity of cotton than the others. Tables 1 to 3 present the distribution of the producers

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surveyed by production area.

Table 1: Distribution of Respondents in the Far North Region in the Dry Area
Far North
N.
Maroua 1 Maroua 2 Kaele Tchatibali
Number of Number of Number of Number of
Location Producers Location Producers Location Producers Location Producers
Surveyed Surveyed Surveyed Surveyed
1 Mora 91 Mokolo 156 Mindif 65 Dana 52
2 Koza 65 Mokomg 102 Moutouroua 104 Gobo 65
3 Dogba 104 Zongoya 39 Kaele 195 Taala 52
4 Bogo 65 Hina 91 Dziguilao 52 – –
Total 4 325 4 388 4 416 3 169

Table 2: Distribution of Respondents in the North Region, Intermediate Area

North
N.
Garoua Guider Ngong
Number of Producers Number of Producers Number of Producers
Location Location Location
Surveyed Surveyed Surveyed
1 Hamakoussou 190 Bidzar 190 Ngong 735
2 Gaschiga 95 Guider 810 Touroua 95
3 Pitoa 650 Mayo Oulo 476 Gouna 476
4 Be 238 Sorawel 335 Poli 230
5 Paderme 143 — — — —
6 Bibemi 95 — — — —
Total 6 1,411 4 1,811 4 1,536

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Table 3: Distribution of Respondents in the Adamawa Region in Wetlands

North and Part of Adamawa
N.
Mayo Galke Touboro
Location Number of Producers Surveyed Location Number of Producers Surveyed
1 Baika 104 Sorombeo 208
2 Bere 130 Ndock 208
3 Madingring 208 Touboro 727
4 Tchollire 906 Sud Vina 104
Total 4 1,348 4 1,247

Data Collection

The first step was to collect climatic and cotton production data. The climatic data
(temperature, rainfall) studied were obtained from the Aerial Navigation Safety in Africa and
Madagascar (ASECNA) in the Adamawa and Northern regions, while data for the Far North
region were obtained from the Cameroon Civil Aviation Authority (CCAA) meteorological
station, and data on seed cotton production and other rainfall data were also obtained from

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Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON).
The second step was the field survey, which took place in three periods of one month
each, corresponding to the three study areas, the dry zone, the intermediate zone, and the wet
zone. The first phase of the survey consisted of interviewing producers’ families using an
interview guide or a survey questionnaire. This operation made it possible to obtain
information from the producers on the different representations of climate change, its
negative effects and the adaptation strategies implemented. This operation took place during
2020 to 2022. The number of producers surveyed is presented in Table 4. The third step
consisted of interviewing managers of the supervisory structures, notably the managers of
SODECOTON, to determine the level of implementation of CSA practices. This was done
using the checklist of CSA requirements during the period of our research internship at the
Research and Development Division of the General Management of SODECTON in Garoua,
North Cameroon, from November 21 to December 22, 2022.
Direct observation allowed us to confirm or refute the data collected. Direct observation
of the production process and the interactions between producers and development actors
allowed us to reflect on and highlight the logic of these links and the underlying elements.

Table 4: Distribution of Producers Surveyed in the Different Areas

Production Areas Number of Producers Surveyed Percentage
Dry Area 1,298 15
Intermediate Area 4,758 55
Wet Area 2,595 30
Total 8,651 100

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Data Processing and Analysis

In our study, the processing and analysis of data is based on the following: Statistical tools
such as Excel 2016 and XLSTAT 2022 were used; two statistical analysis methods were used:
descriptive analysis and explanatory analysis.

Cotton Production Data

To conduct our analysis on seed cotton productivity, we use the following variables:

▪ The quantities of seed cotton produced in each production zone, expressed in

hectares (tons);
▪ The average yield per hectare, expressed in tons or kilograms per hectare (t/ha or kg/ha);
▪ The area sown in each production area, expressed in hectares (ha); and
▪ The number of active producers.

Total production is obtained from the following equations:

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𝑄p = Σ(Qi)
{ 𝑆t = Σ(Si) (1)
𝑆i
𝑅 = ( ) ∗ 1,000
𝑄i
where
Qp = total quantity of seed cotton produced (ton);
Qi = quantity of seed cotton produced in each production area (ton);
St = total area sown (hectare);
Si = area sown in each zone (hectare); and
R = yield of seed cotton produced for each zone (kg/ha).

Rainfall or Precipitation Data

The monthly data collected at the different stations allow us to obtain the total annual rainfall
for each station, which is obtained from the following equations:

𝑃m = Σ(Px)
{ and (2)
𝑁a = Σ(Ny)
where
Pm = monthly or annual precipitation in mm;
Px = monthly or annual volume of precipitation collected at weather stations in mm;
Na = monthly or annual number of rainy days; and
Ny = monthly or annual number of rainy days recorded for weather stations.

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Temperature Data

Annual mean temperatures were calculated for each station and for the variable of interest.
The average temperatures were the average of the sum of the minimum temperatures over
the observation period. The average temperatures (monthly and annual) are obtained from
the following equations:

𝑇m = Σ(𝑇x)/𝑁b
{ and (3)
𝑇a = Σ(𝑇x)/𝑁a
where
Tm = average monthly temperature in degrees Celsius (C);
Ta = average annual temperature in degrees Celsius (C);
Tx = average monthly or annual temperature collected in the weather stations in
degrees Celsius (C);
Nb = total number of months; and

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Na = total number of years.

Statistical Tests

Determining the Regression Line

The regression line in climatology is the affine adjustment line; it is a question of determining
the line that best fits the data, that is, the line that is closest to the points. It is an equation
obtained by the method of least squares by searching among all the possible lines, the line
for which the sum of the squares of the vertical deviations of the points from the line is
minimal. It is defined by the following equation:

{ 𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏 (4)

The equation of the line from y to x is therefore as follows:

𝐷𝑦/𝑥 ∶ 𝑦 = 𝑎̂𝑥 + 𝑏̂
,
cov(𝑥,𝑦)
𝑎̂ = (5)
𝑠𝑥2

𝑏̂ = 𝑦̅ − 𝑎̂𝑥̅
{
1 1
Average: 𝑥̅ = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 , 𝑦̅ = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 . (6)
𝑛 𝑛
1 𝑛 1 𝑛 1 𝑛
Variance: 𝑠𝑥2 = ∑𝑖=1( 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ ) = ∑𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖2 − (𝑥̅ )2 ,
2
𝑠𝑦2 = ∑𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖2 − (𝑦̅)2 .
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
(7)
1 𝑛 1
Covariance: cov(𝑥, 𝑦) = ∑𝑖=1( 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅ )( 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̅) = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑥̅ y̅. (8)
𝑛 𝑛

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Coefficient (b) represents the ordinate of the point of intersection of the line with the
vertical axis at x = 0. Coefficient (a) represents the slope of the line or the average rate of
increase or decrease in temperature and/or precipitation per unit time.

▪ If a > 0, then the line is increasing.

▪ If a < 0, then the line is decreasing.
▪ If a = 0, then the line is horizontal.

Measure of the Quality of the Fit

To have an overall idea of the quality of the linear fit, we define R2 as the coefficient of
determination, which is the square of the correlation coefficient (r).

cov(𝑥,𝑦) cov(𝑥,𝑦)
with: { 𝑟 = σ(𝑥).σ(𝑦) = (9)
√𝑣(𝑥).√𝑣(𝑦)
If R2 = 0, the regression model explains nothing, and the variables (x) and (y) are not
linearly correlated.

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If R2 = 1, then the points are aligned, and the relationship reflects all the variation.
If R2 is rather close to 1, then this represents a reasonable fit but by no means sufficient.

ARIMA Model for Forecasting Seed Cotton Productivity in Cameroon

ARIMA is an extrapolation method that requires historical time series data of the underlying
variable (Padhan 2012). The ARIMA model is labeled as an ARIMA (p,d,q) model, in which
p is the number of autoregressive terms, d is the number of differences, and q is the number
of moving averages; the essential objective of ARIMA models is to allow a prediction of the
future evolution of a phenomenon, including for mixed models (Didier 2000); an ARIMA
(1,1,1) model will have the prediction equation described as follows:

𝑦𝑡 = µ + 𝑦𝑡−1 + ϕ(𝑦𝑡−1 − 𝑦𝑡−2 ) − θ1ε(𝑡−1) + ε𝑡 (10)

where µ, representing the model constant, and ε random error, with Φ, and θ, are the
autoregression coefficient and moving average coefficient of the model, respectively.

Assessment of the Level of Implementation of CSA at SODECOTON

This assessment was inspired by the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) method,
which is a qualitative analysis method (failures are not ranked in terms of severity and
probability of occurrence) that favors the mobilization of the actors concerned in a very
concrete way (Haute Autorité de Santé [HAS], n.d.). The procedure consists of evaluating the
level of compliance with the requirements of the CSA (FAO, n.d.). The step aims to check
the box whose description of the section corresponds to the following terms: (1) compliant,
which indicates that the implementation of the CSA approach in the production areas of

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

SODECOTON is effective; (2) acceptable, which justifies SODECOTON’s willingness to

accompany and support producers who wish to engage in the implementation of the CSA
approach in their production units; and (3) noncompliant, which translates into the absence
of written formalization and effective implementation of the CSA approach by farmers in
their production units. The objective would be to have a compliance rate of 100 percent,
which would correspond to a total of thirteen points out of thirteen and whose quota would
translate the effective implementation of the CSA at SODECOTON. After analysis of the
situation, actions are recommended to reduce the observed gaps of nonfulfillment of the
requirements of the CSA.

Results
Evolution of Seed Cotton Production, Planted Area, and Production Yield

Table 5 represents the evolution of seed cotton production, planted area, and production
yield at SODECOTON from 1974 to 2021. Thus, it can be seen that the maximum production

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of seed cotton during this study was recorded in 2021, with a value of 369,700 tons, followed
by 2020, with a value of 342,000 tons, and the lowest production was recorded in 1974, with
a value of 40,042 tons, followed by 1977, with a value of 46,358 tons. Regarding the areas
sown, the maximum areas sown during this study were recorded in 2005, with a value of
231,993 ha, followed by 2020, with a value of 225,831 ha; the lowest areas were recorded in
1978, with a value of 47,130 ha, followed by 1977, with a value of 48,436 ha.
Finally, the maximum yields during this study were recorded in 2021 with a value of
1,600 kg/ha, followed by 2018 with a value of 1,520 kg/ha, and the lowest yields were recorded
in 1974, with a value of 538 kg/ha, followed by 1975 with a value of 676 kg/ha.

Table 5: Evolution of Seed Cotton Production, Areas Sown, and

Yield at SODECOTON from 1974 to 2021
Total Seed Cotton
Years of Campaigning Area Sown (ha) Yield (kg/ha)
Production (t)
1974–1975 40,042 74,420 538
1975–1976 49,462 73,178 676
1976–1977 47,767 59,930 797
1977–1978 46,358 48,436 957
1978–1979 59,497 47,130 1,262
1979–1980 80,335 56,594 1,419
1980–1981 84,453 65,340 1,293
1981–1982 79,819 63,343 1,260
1982–1983 72,361 54,629 1,325
1983–1984 94,580 71,092 1,330
1984–1985 97,502 73,316 1,330
1985–1986 122,773 89,232 1,376

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Total Seed Cotton

Years of Campaigning Area Sown (ha) Yield (kg/ha)
Production (t)
1986–1987 120,059 94,461 1,271
1987–1988 113,699 111,604 1,019
1988–1989 165,431 111,604 1,482
1989–1990 103,879 89,004 1,167
1990–1991 113,258 175,215 646
1991–1992 114,272 89,248 1,280
1992–1993 120,623 98,645 1,223
1993–1994 126,465 108,941 1,161
1994–1995 165,739 141,061 1,175
1995–1996 195,215 158,816 1,229
1996–1997 227,727 191,031 1,192
1997–1998 182,996 172,246 1,062
1998–1999 194,601 172,519 1,128
1999–2000 196,242 179,575 1,093
2000–2001 229,931 198,559 1,158
2001–2002 246,070 201,576 1,221

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2002–2003 233,795 181,811 1,286
2003–2004 242,884 208,204 1,167
2004–2005 285,092 215,027 1,326
2005–2006 220,844 231,993 952
2006–2007 187,363 203,023 923
2007–2008 116,412 137,868 844
2008–2009 145,829 147,433 989
2009–2010 112,911 124,732 905
2010–2011 135,969 142,913 951
2011–2012 185,419 148,888 1,245
2012–2013 221,115 195,037 1,134
2013–2014 245,632 207,718 1,183
2014–2015 295,143 209,931 1,406
2015–2016 265,000 202,708 1,307
2016–2017 240,222 183,685 1,308
2017–2018 260,100 182,610 1,424
2018–2019 309,500 203,651 1,520
2019–2020 328,454 222,357 1,477
2020–2021 342,000 225,831 1,514
2021–2022 369,700 231,074 1,600
Source: Data adapted from the Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON)

Rainfall and Temperature Series

Average Rainfall Trends in Production Areas
Table 6 represents the average rainfall in the production zones from 1974 to 2021. It follows
from this analysis that precipitation over these forty-eight years has fluctuated; therefore, we
note that the maximum rainfall in the wetland during this study is recorded in 2010 with a

38
 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

value of 1,637 mm, followed by 2012 with a value of 1,532 mm; the lowest rainfall was
recorded in 2014, with a value of 814 mm of rainfall, followed by 1983 with a value of 912
mm. In the dry zone, the maximum rainfall recorded was in 1991 with a value of 1,082 mm,
followed by 2019 with a value of 1,056 mm, and the lowest rainfall was recorded in 1984,
with a value of 569 mm of rainfall, followed by 2014 with a value of 580 mm.
Finally, in the medium zone, the maximum precipitation recorded was in 2006, with a value
of 1,202 mm, followed by 1988, with a value of 1,197 mm, and the lowest precipitation was
recorded in 1987, with a value of 605 mm of rainfall, followed by 2011, with a value of 621 mm.

Table 6: Evolution of the Average Rainfall in the Production

Areas of SODECOTON from 1974 to 2021
Years of Precipitation (mm)— Precipitation (mm)— Precipitation (mm)—
Campaigning Dry Area Intermediate Area Wet Area
1974–1975 687 801 1,045
1975–1976 830 738 1,156
1976–1977 845 793 1,282

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1977–1978 790 909 918
1978–1979 818 948 1,445
1979–1980 701 942 1,005
1980–1981 840 872 1,085
1981–1982 750 883 1,034
1982–1983 642 861 981
1983–1984 603 700 912
1984–1985 569 758 953
1985–1986 650 825 1,216
1986–1987 790 922 1,250
1987–1988 656 605 921
1988–1989 927 1,197 1,291
1989–1990 696 886 975
1990–1991 671 1,016 1,151
1991–1992 1,082 999 1,275
1992–1993 751 931 1,132
1993–1994 773 1,022 1,083
1994–1995 1,000 1,114 1,157
1995–1996 985 1,050 1,270
1996–1997 1,012 1,064 1,322
1997–1998 823 933 1,148
1998–1999 864 877 1,131
1999–2000 935 1,161 1,346
2000–2001 741 752 1,012
2001–2002 910 973 1,330
2002–2003 662 764 1,045
2003–2004 1,010 1,150 1,328
2004–2005 756 1,066 1,204
2005–2006 881 976 1,242

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Years of Precipitation (mm)— Precipitation (mm)— Precipitation (mm)—

Campaigning Dry Area Intermediate Area Wet Area
2006–2007 968 1,202 1,319
2007–2008 961 854 1,360
2008–2009 992 1,035 1,378
2009–2010 922 1,025 1,308
2010–2011 903 973 1,637
2011–2012 667 621 1,113
2012–2013 909 1,066 1,532
2013–2014 799 710 1,136
2014–2015 580 836 836
2015–2016 642 656 1,241
2016–2017 810 809 1,063
2017–2018 816 997 997
2018–2019 951 1,065 1,159
2019–2020 1,056 1,064 1,285
2020–2021 902 910 1,471
2021–2022 841 853 1,416

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Source: Data adapted from the Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON), the Agency for Aerial
Navigation Safety in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA) and the Cameroon Civil Aviation Authority (CCAA)

Average Temperature Trends in Production Areas

Table 7 represents the evolution of average temperatures in the production areas from 1974 to
2021. It follows from this analysis that the average temperatures over these forty-eight years have
fluctuated; therefore, we note that the maximum average temperatures in the wet zone during
this study are recorded in 1998 and 2021 with a value of 23C, followed by 2001 and 2017 with a
value of 22C, and the lowest average temperatures were recorded in 1989 and 2006, with a value
of 21C. In the dry zone, the maximum average temperatures were recorded in 2021, with a value
of 32C, and the lowest average temperatures were recorded in 1989, with a value of 27C.
Finally, in the median zone, the maximum average temperatures recorded were in 2021, with
a value of 29C, and the lowest average temperatures were recorded in 1989, with a value of 27C.

Table 7: Evolution of the Average Temperature in the

Production Areas at SODECOTON from 1974 to 2021
Years of Average Temperature Average Temperature Average Temperature
Campaigning (C)—Dry Area (C)—Intermediate Area (C)—Wet Area
1974–1975 27 27 21
1975–1976 28 28 21
1976–1977 28 28 22
1977–1978 28 28 22
1978–1979 27 28 21
1979–1980 28 28 22
1980–1981 28 28 21
1981–1982 27 28 21

40
BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Years of Average Temperature Average Temperature Average Temperature

Campaigning (C)—Dry Area (C)—Intermediate Area (C)—Wet Area
1982–1983 27 28 21
1983–1984 28 28 21
1984–1985 28 28 21
1985–1986 28 29 21
1986–1987 28 29 21
1987–1988 29 29 22
1988–1989 28 28 22
1989–1990 27 27 21
1990–1991 29 29 22
1991–1992 29 28 22
1992–1993 29 28 22
1993–1994 29 28 22
1994–1995 28 28 22
1995–1996 28 28 22
1996–1997 29 28 22
1997–1998 28 28 22

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1998–1999 29 29 23
1999–2000 28 28 22
2000–2001 28 28 22
2001–2002 28 28 22
2002–2003 29 28 21
2003–2004 29 29 22
2004–2005 29 28 21
2005–2006 30 29 22
2006–2007 29 29 21
2007–2008 29 29 21
2008–2009 29 28 21
2009–2010 30 29 21
2010–2011 30 29 22
2011–2012 29 29 21
2012–2013 29 28 21
2013–2014 30 29 21
2014–2015 28 29 21
2015–2016 28 29 22
2016–2017 29 29 22
2017–2018 29 29 22
2018–2019 28 29 22
2019–2020 29 29 22
2020–2021 32 29 22
2021–2022 32 29 23
Source: Data adapted from the Agency for Aerial Navigation Safety in Africa and
Madagascar (ASECNA) and the Cameroon Civil Aviation Authority (CCAA)

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Relationship between Cotton Production and Climate Variability

Climatic parameters (rainfall, temperature, etc.) and soil degradation influence agricultural
production. However, to identify the climatic parameter whose variability has the greatest impact
on production, particularly that of cotton, we considered SODECOTON’s cotton production data
from 1974 to 2021 to establish a relationship between these data and the values of rainfall or
precipitation and mean temperature over the same period (Figure 2a–c and Figure 3a–c).

Relationship between Cotton Production and Rainfall

Figures 2a and b show the anticyclonic1 evolution of the variable’s production/rainfall (Figure
2a) and yield/rainfall (Figure 2b), the observation being dominated by the fact that when
rainfall increases, production/yield decreases.

y = 5331.2x + 40939 y = 3.0423x + 900.57

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400,000 1,400
R² = 0.7497

Average rainfall (mm)

350,000 R² = 0.1051 1,200
300,000 1,000
250,000 800
200,000
150,000 600
100,000 400
50,000 200
0 0

Years
Total seed cotton production (tons) Average Precipitation (mm)
Figure 2a: Changes in Rainfall and Cotton Production

1
Going in the opposite direction.

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

1,800 1,400
y = 3.0423x + 900.57 y = 5.6756x + 1038.7
1,600 1,200
R² = 0.1051 R² = 0.1154
1,400
1,000
1,200
1,000 800
800 600
600
400
400
200 200
0 0

Figure 2b: Changes in Rainfall and Production Yield

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Regression of total seed cotton Pproduction (ton) by average rainfall
(mm) (R²=0.073)
400000
Total Seed Cotton Production (ton)

300000
200000
100000
0
600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300
-100000
Average Rainfall (mm)

Modele Int. de conf. (Mean 95%) Int. de conf. (Obs 95%)

Figure 2c: Regression of the Production Variable by Rainfall

The coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.073) shows that rainfall has little influence on
cotton production (Figure 2c). That said, rainfall alone explains approximately 7 percent of
the variation in cotton production. Hence, it has a weak influence.
Relationship between Cotton Production and Average Temperature
Figure 3a and b shows the pro-cyclical2 evolution of the variables production/average
temperature (Figure 3a) and yield/average temperature (Figure 3b), the observation being

2
Going in the same direction.

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

dominated by the fact that when average temperature increases, production/yield increases
(see years 1982–1990; 2001–2005; 2009–2011, and 2020–2021), although over short periods,
a decrease in average temperature is followed by an increase in production/yield (see years
2011–2021), although over short periods, a decrease in average temperature is followed by an
increase in production/yield (see years 2011–2013; 2013–2014; 2018–2020, 2017–2020).

400,000 29
y = 5331.2x + 40939 y = 0.0252x + 25.552

Average temperature (°C)

Total seed cotton production (ton)

350,000 28
300,000 R² = 0.7497 R² = 0.4641
250,000 27
200,000 26
150,000 25
100,000
50,000 24
0 23
1977-1978

1983-1984
1974-1975

1980-1981

1989 - 1990

1995 - 1996

2001 - 2002
1986 - 1987

1992 - 1993

1998 - 1999

2004 - 2005
2007 - 2008
2010 - 2011
2013 - 2014
2016 - 2017
2019 - 2020

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Years

Total seed cotton production (tons) Average Temperature (°C)

Figure 3a: Change in Mean Temperature and Seed Cotton Production

1,800 29
1,600 y = 5.6756x + 1038.7 y = 0.0252x + 25.552
R² = 0.1154 28
1,400 R² = 0.4641
1,200 27
1,000
26
800
600 25
400
24
200
0 23

Figure 3b: Change in Mean Temperature and Seed Cotton Production Yield

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Regression of total seed cotton production (ton) by mean

Temperature (°C) (R2=0.400)
600000
Total Seed Cotton Production (ton)

500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
-100000 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27 27.5 28 28.5
-200000
Mean Temperature (°C)

Modele Int. de conf. (Mean 95%) Int. de conf. (Obs 95%)

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Figure 3c: Regression of the Total Seed Cotton Production Variable by Mean Temperature

The coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.400) shows the influence of temperature on

cotton production (Figure 3c). Temperature accounts for approximately 40 percent of the
variability in cotton production.
The results show that the relationships between the various climatic parameters (rainfall,
average temperature) and cotton production between 1974 and 2021 are not statistically
significant at the 95 percent level. Nevertheless, there is a positive relationship between
production, rainfall, and average temperature. The fact that it is positive implies that the values
of rainfall and average temperature tend to follow the values of production. The positive
relationship between rainfall/cotton production (R2 = 0.073) and mean temperature/cotton
production (R2 = 0.400) is very weak, which means that the variables are only weakly related.
However, the explanatory power of mean temperature (40%) shows that in cotton production
(a heliophilic plant), temperature plays an essential role in the production process.
The results show that variation in average temperature is the climatic parameter whose
variability has the greatest influence on cotton production.
However, to reflect reality, in addition to parameters, such as rainfall and average
temperature, other parameters, such as sunshine and rainfall days, soil quality,
evapotranspiration, relative humidity, wind speed, etc. could be clearly associated with future
analyses, in order to better appreciate the factors explaining the variability of cotton
production. Thus, the role of rainfall and average temperature on cotton production at
SODECOTON is demonstrated.

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Forecast of Seed Cotton Production as a Function of Changes in Rainfall

The simulated forecasts for the next four years (2022–2025) predict a fluctuation in
production (Table 8), and Figure 4 represents the simulation of seed cotton production as a
function of rainfall.

Table 8: Predictions and Residuals

Total Seed ARIMA (Total Seed
Standardized Standard Lower Bound Upper Bound
Years Cotton Cotton Production Residuals
Residuals Error (95%) (95%)
Production (ton) (ton)
2019 328,454.00 316,939.236 11,514.764 0.297
2020 342,000.00 319,872.213 22,127.787 0.572
2021 369,700.00 327,184.868 42,515.132 1.098
2022 365,038.147 38,712.892 289,162.27 440,914.02
2023 380,186.205 49,133.151 283,887.00 476,485.41
2024 372,726.474 58,517.530 258,034.22 487,418.72
2025 362,542.792 66,460.830 232,281.95 492,803.62

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SARIMAX (1,1,1)(0,0,0)(Period = 0) / Total seed cotton production
(tons)
Total seed cotton production (tons)

500000

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Years

Total seed cotton production (tons)

ARIMA(Total seed cotton production (tons))
Predictions

Figure 4: Forecast of Seed Cotton Production as a Function of Rainfall Trends

Forecast of Seed Cotton Production According to Average Temperatures

The simulated forecasts for the next four years (2022–2025) predict a decrease and an increase
in production depending on the year (Table 9), and Figure 5 shows the simulation and seed
cotton production as a function of average temperature.

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Table 9: Predictions and Residuals

Total Seed ARIMA (Total
Cotton Seed Cotton Standardized Standard Lower Bound Upper Bound
Years Residuals
Production Production Residuals Error (95%) (95%)
(ton) (ton)
2020 342,000 402,645.6 –60,645.6 –1.129
2021 369,700 392,752.9 –23,052.9 –0.429
2022 216,413.5 53,734.1 111,096.45 321,730.61
2023 218,215.9 62,368.0 95,976.883 340,455.00
2024 340,272.2 65,745.4 211,413.57 469,130.94
2025 389,661.1 67,538.3 257,288.35 522,033.94

SARIMAX (1,1,1)(0,0,0)(Period = 0) / Total seed cotton production

(tons)
Total seed cotton production (tons)

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Years

Total seed cotton production (tons)

ARIMA(Total seed cotton production (tons))
Predictions
Lower bound (95%)
Upper bound (95%)

Figure 5: Forecast of Seed Cotton Production According to Average Temperatures

Producers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Causes

Tables 10 and 11 present the frequencies of producers’ responses to the questions “What are
the signs that convince you that the climate has really changed in your production basin?”
and “What do you think are the causes of climate change?” respectively. Regarding the causes,
the majority of producers answered deforestation. Deforestation is therefore one of the major
causes of climate change in these localities. Cotton producers are certainly aware of the reality
of climate change that is imposed on them. However, the explanations they provide for the
causes of climate change are varied (Table 11).

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Table 10: Producers’ Perception of Climate Change

What Are the Signs That Convince You That the Climate Has Really Changed in Your Production Unit?
Number of Producers Number of Producers Who Frequency of
Response
Surveyed Answered Affirmatively Response (%)
Increased Incidence of Flooding
8,561 8,561 100
during the Rainy Season
High Rainfall over a Short Period 8,561 8,561 100
Irregularity of Rainfall 8,561 8,561 100
Soil Degradation 8,561 8,561 100

Table 11: Causes of Climate Change Reported by Producers

What Do You Think Is Causing the Climate to Change?
Number of Number of Producers Who Frequency of
Response
Producers Surveyed Answered Affirmatively Response (%)
Deforestation 8,561 8,561 100
Natural Phenomenon 8,561 6,849 80
Industrialization 8,561 4,281 50

Analysis of Producers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in the Production Areas

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A total of 8,651 producers surveyed in the different cotton production zones of the northern region
of Cameroon perceive the effects of climate change. When asked what signs convince you that the
climate has really changed in your production unit, the perceptions most cited by most producers
are the increased incidence of flooding during the rainy season, heavy rainfall over a short period
of time, irregularity of rainfall, and soil degradation. The results of the field surveys on farmers’
perceptions of climate change are presented in Table 10 and complemented by Figure 6.

Increased number of rainy days

Decrease in parasitic infections
Increasingly rainy years
Early onset of rainy season
Early onset of the rainy season
Fog
Increasingly hot nights
Drought
Decreased production yield
Late start of rainy season
Shorter cold period
Increased rainfall
Decreasing number of rainy days
Intense rainfall over a short period
Soil degradation
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Figure 6: Indicators of Climate Change as Perceived by Producers

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Impact of Climate Change on Cotton growing in Cameroon

According to farmers, low production yields, disruption of the cropping calendar, soil
depletion, and drying plants are some of the impacts of climate change on cotton production.
These statistics are presented in the following sections:

Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Activities

Table 12 identifies four impacts of climate variations on cotton production. Indeed, an analysis
of the proportions contained in this table shows that according to producers, low yields,
disruption of the cropping calendar, soil impoverishment, and plant desiccation constitute
some of the impacts of climate change on cotton production, with proportions equal to 100
percent, 80 percent, 75 percent, and 25 percent for each of the impacts cited, respectively. These
statistics make it possible to affirm that low yields, disruption of the cropping calendar, and soil
depletion are the main impacts of climate change on cotton production.

Table 12: The Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Activities

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What Are the Effects of Climate Change on Your Agricultural Activities?
Number of Number of Producers Who Frequency of
Response
Producers Surveyed Answered Affirmatively Response (%)
Poor Yields 8,561 8,561 100
Crop Calendar Disruption 8,561 6,849 80
Soil Depletion 8,561 6,421 75
Drying of Plants 8,561 2,140 25

Assessment of the Evolution of Cotton Production by Producers

Table 13 identifies three paths of change in cotton production. This table shows that,
according to producers, production instability is cited by 50 percent of producers. This
statistic makes it possible to affirm that the instability of production is the principal mode of
evolution of cotton production in production units.

Table 13: Assessment of the Evolution of Cotton Production by Producers

How Do You Judge the Evolution of Your Cotton Production over the Last 30 Years?
Number of Producers Number of Producers Who Frequency of
Response
Surveyed Answered Affirmatively Response (%)
Unstable (Sometimes Down,
8,561 4,281 50
Sometimes Up)
Decreasing 8,561 2,996 35
Increasing 8,561 1,284 15

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Factors Affecting Cotton Production in the Production Units

Table 14 identifies six climatic factors that have an impact on variations in cotton production.
Indeed, analysis of the proportions contained in this table shows that according to producers,
rainfall, soils, radiation intensity, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed are the
main climatic factors that have an impact on cotton production, with proportions equal to
100 percent for the first four factors, followed by 50 and 20 percent for relative humidity and
wind speed, respectively. These statistics indicate that rainfall, soils, solar radiation intensity,
and temperature are the main factors that impact cotton production.

Table 14: Factors Affecting Cotton Production in the Production Units

What Would Have the Greatest Impact on Cotton Production in Your Production Unit?
Number of Producers Number of Producers Who Frequency of
Response
Surveyed Answered Affirmatively Response (%)
Precipitations 8,561 8,561 100
Soils 8,561 8,561 100
Solar Radiation Intensity 8,561 8,561 100

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Temperatures 8,561 8,561 100
Relative Humidity 8,561 4,281 50
Wind Speed 8,561 1,712 20

Causes of Yield Variations in Cotton Production

Table 15 identifies six causes that can explain the variation in cotton production yields.
Indeed, analysis of the proportions contained in this table shows that according to producers,
the purchase price of seed cotton by SODECOTON, climate change, the quality of the
varieties distributed to producers, changes in the area of cultivable land, changes in the
cropping system, and difficulties in accessing inputs are the causes that can lead to variations
in cotton production yields. These statistics affirm that the purchase price of seed cotton by
SODECOTON and the modification of the change are the main causes that can influence
variations in cotton production yields, with proportions equal to 100 and 95 percent for each
of the causes cited by the producers, respectively.

Table 15: Causes of Yield Variations in Cotton Production

How Can You Explain These Variations in the Yield of Cotton Production in Your Unit?
Number of Number of Producers Who Answered Frequency of
Response
Producers Surveyed Affirmatively Response (%)
Purchase Price of Seed Cotton by
8,561 8,561 100
SODECOTON
Modification of the Climate 8,561 8,133 95
Quality of the Varieties 8,561 3,424 40
Change in the Area of Cultivable Land 8,561 2,568 30
Change in Cropping Systems 8,561 2,568 30
Difficulty of Access to Inputs 8,561 428 5

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Adaptation of Existing Strategies to Climate Change Impacts in Production Areas

Producers in the different cotton production zones of the northern region of Cameroon are
developing strategies to combat the negative effects of climate change. When asked what
strategies have been developed to combat the negative effects of climate change in your
production unit, the strategies most often cited, with a proportion of 100 percent of
producers, concern crop rotation practices, crop diversification, the use of improved seeds,
and the use of mineral fertilization. Of the producers surveyed, 85 percent opted to change
the sowing date, 60 percent preferred to use the irrigation system, and 1 percent practiced the
technique of direct seeding under plant cover. The results of the field surveys on climate
change adaptation measures taken by producers are presented in Table 16.

Table 16: The Strategies Developed by Producers to Cope with the

Effects of Climate Change in Production Areas
What Strategies Have Been Developed to Combat the Negative Effects of Climate Change in Your Production Unit?
Number of Producers Number of Producers Who Frequency of
Response

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Surveyed Answered Affirmatively Response (%)
Mineral Fertilization 8,561 8,561 100
Use of Improved or Selected Seeds 8,561 8,561 100
Practice of Crop Rotation 8,561 8,561 100
Crop Diversification 8,561 8,561 100
Modification of the Area Allocated to
8,561 7,876 92
Each Crop
Staggered Planting Dates 8,561 7,277 85
Use of Irrigation for Certain Crops 8,561 5,137 60
Changing Crops or Abandoning
8,561 3,852 45
Certain Crops
Organic Fertilization 8,561 3,424 40
Use of Direct Seeding under Plant
8,561 86 1
Cover

Assessment of the CSA Level at SODECOTON

The CSA approach aims to integrate climate change adaptation and mitigation into
development strategies, particularly with a view to increasing agricultural productivity and
income. The essential steps for successful implementation of the CSA approach in production
units are described in Table 17. Information on SODECOTON’s level of compliance with
CSA requirements was obtained from interviews with SODECOTON officials during our
research internship at the Garoua headquarters from November 21 to December 22, 2022. At
the end of these interviews, four elements were identified as compliant out of the thirteen
defined. Given the shortcomings identified during this evaluation, the main actions that we
retained to reduce these shortcomings are presented in the last column of the same table:

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Table 17: CSA Assessment Process and Actions Taken to

Bring Noncompliant Actions into Compliance

Noncompliant
Compliant

Acceptable
Implementing the Climate Smart
Actions Taken to Bring Acceptable Processes Back into
Agriculture (CSA) Approach: A 5-Step
Compliance with Our Recommendations
Process

1 Expanding the evidence base

Have current and projected effects of
climate change on specific
1.1 agricultural production systems and X Continue to archive information
producers, in the near and medium
term been known and documented?
Have key vulnerabilities in the
1.2 agricultural sectors and for food X Continue to archive information
security been known and documented?
Establishment of permanent water points in the

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production areas, especially in times of drought:
Have potential climate-smart options
irrigation systems, drainage systems in case of
for adapting to the expected impacts
flooding and dikes. Meteorological monitoring of
1.3 of climate change, while supporting X
climatic parameters: temperatures, hygrometry,
sustainable agricultural development
insolation, evapotranspiration, etc. Establishment of
been known and documented?
communication channels on the effects of climate
change to producers
Have the institutional and financial
needs that must be met to Setting up an institutional and financial support
1.4 X
implement priority actions been program for farmers
identified and documented?
Supporting enabling policy
2
frameworks
Has the development of supportive
policies, legislation, plans and
investments, institutions, and
2.1 X Continue to archive information
funding, which together create an
enabling environment for CSA been
known and documented?
Has the modification of existing
policy measures to exploit the
Insertion of the three objectives of the CSA in the
2.2 synergies and minimize the trade-offs X
quality policy of SODECOTON
between the three CSA objectives
been known and specified?
Has the coordination of policy-
Promote frameworks for meetings between the
making processes and institutions
different agricultural actors (creation of a permanent
2.3 responsible for agriculture, climate X
and regular exchange forum between the actors of
change, food security, and land use
the production and the state)
been known and specified?

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Noncompliant
Compliant

Acceptable
Implementing the Climate Smart
Actions Taken to Bring Acceptable Processes Back into
Agriculture (CSA) Approach: A 5-Step
Compliance with Our Recommendations
Process

Strengthening national and local

3
institutions
Has the reinforcement of those
institutions (e.g., land tenure
regimes, insurance schemes,
Maintain good relationships with specialized
3.1 information, and extension services) X
institutions
that can empower, enable, and
motivate farmers to adopt CSA
practices been known and specified?
Has strong coordination among
institutions dealing with agriculture,
Promote frameworks for meetings between farmers,
climate change, social protection,
3.2 X NGOs, the State, and other partners involved in
food security, and other issues at

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sustainable development
local, national, and international
levels been known and specified?
Has improving the capacity of
national policy-makers to participate
in international policy forums on
Provide financial and logistical means and strengthen
climate change and agriculture, and
3.3 X the capacities of support structures and resource
the strengthening of their
persons
engagement with local governments
authorities been achieved and
documented?
4 Enhancing financing options
Have innovative financing
mechanisms that improve links
between climate finance and Strengthen the support system for climate-smart
4.1 X
agricultural investments from the innovations
public and private sectors been
known and specified?
Has the integration of climate
change issues into agricultural Carry out environmental impact studies in
4.2 X
planning and budgeting been known agricultural projects
and specified?
5 Implementing practices at field level
Has local project managers and
institutions engaging with
Promote a framework of cooperation between
agricultural producers to identify
5.1 X decentralized local authorities, institutions, and
suitable CSA options that can be
farmers
easily adopted and implemented
been carried out and documented?

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

From the evaluation of the level of satisfaction of SODECOTON with the requirements
of CSA described in Table 17, it appears that four responses, representing a percentage of 31
percent in terms of compliance of SODECOTON with these requirements, are recorded. This
value reflects an insufficient implementation of the CSA approach by SODECOTON. It is
therefore recommended that nine actions be implemented by SODECOTON, and these
actions represent 69 percent of the actions that SODECOTON must implement to meet the
thirteen requirements of the CSA to meet the rate of 100 percent satisfaction.

Discussion

Table 5 represents the evolution of seed cotton production, planted area, and production
yield at SODECOTON from 1974 to 2021; according to the observations, there is instability
in cotton production, as the quantities of cotton produced vary greatly from one year to the
next; this result is consistent with that found by Fok et al. (2019), who indicated that
production was unstable from 1995 to 2018, the period marking the year of their study in the
cotton-growing zones of North Cameroon.

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With respect to rainfall, Table 6 provides information on the evolution of this parameter
in the production zones from 1974 to 2021. This analysis shows that rainfall has also fluctuated,
with greater amounts of rainfall than in previous years, which would indicate that rainfall is
increasing in these localities. These results are consistent with those reported by Cheo, Voigt,
and Lyongo (2013), who indicate that between 1957 and 2006, rainfall increased in Adamawa
and Garoua but decreased in Maroua. This analysis is consistent with the results reported by
Bassirou and Dieudonné (2023), who indicate a decrease in rainfall in the extreme north of
Cameroon (dry area). The authors indicate that monitoring must be strengthened to avoid food
crises given the dependence of this region on climate-dependent agriculture. This result is also
in agreement with those found by Vondou et al. (2021) and Ebodé (2022), who reported that
the strongest rainfall trends have been observed in the northern zone in recent years.
Regarding the evolution of average temperatures in the production areas from 1974 to
2021, Table 7 shows that average temperatures over these forty-eight years have also fluctuated
with positive trends observed, that is, an increase of +2C. These results are consistent with
those reported by Cheo, Voigt, and Lyongo (2013), who indicate that between 1957 and 2006,
temperatures increased in Adamawa and Garoua but decreased in Maroua; these results are
also consistent with those reported by Bassirou and Dieudonné (2022) who indicate that
mean temperatures increased in the North and Far North regions of Cameroon, representing
the intermediate and dry zones, respectively.
Figure 2 shows the relationship between cotton production and rainfall, with the analysis
indicating that seed cotton production is dependent on good rainfall. Rafiq and Guitchounts
(2003) noted that cotton is a hot climate crop that likes sun but does not like much water and
that the water requirements of cotton depend on climatic conditions, indicating that on

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

average, cotton needs at least 75 cm of rainfall or irrigation water. However, waterlogging

during the rainy season can have a significant negative impact on seed cotton production.
Therefore, rainfall is higher in the intermediate and humid zones, making the soil more
fertile for cotton production. This analysis corroborates that of Gergely (2009), who indicates
that in the southern part of the cotton belt (intermediate and humid zones), rainfall is higher
and the risk of drought is more limited. As a result, soil fertility is higher, yields would be
higher, and more than two-thirds of the cotton produced would come from these two
regions; the author specifies that in the northern part of the cotton belt (dry zone or extreme
north of the country), which is the main historical cultivation area where cotton was
introduced and developed, it represents less than one-third of the total production, and
climatic conditions would be less favorable to production than in the southern part of the
cotton belt. However, this part of Cameroon would be considered the poorest in the country,
with a high illiteracy rate and the recurrent risk of food shortages due to climatic hazards.
Figure 3 shows that seed cotton production is also conditioned by good temperature, and
the average annual temperature in the production areas is between 25C and 28C. These

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values are close to those reported by the FAO (2014), which indicates that cotton plants grow
and produce better in cotton plains, which are generally characterized by temperatures of
approximately 30C, without frost. Rafiq and Guitchounts (2003) reported that temperature
has a critical effect on pollen tube growth and that the maximum temperature value for good
pollen tube growth can be up to 50C. However, in the active growth phase, temperatures
above 37C are not desirable.
Table 8 and Figure 4 present simulation projections of future seed cotton production to
2025, taking into account rainfall fluctuations, and show decreases and increases in seed cotton
production. This result is consistent with those reported by Fok et al. (2019), who also reported
this phenomenon of instability of cotton production, and Folefack (2010) attempts to justify
this instability of production by the presence of climatic variations and the aging of producers
in cotton production units; therefore, the workforce would remain insufficient. According to
Mpabe Bondjongo (2022), effective adaptation or mitigation of rainfall variations would be one
of the sine qua non conditions for improving cotton production in Cameroon. Figure 2c shows
the proportion of influence of rainfall on seed cotton production, with an R2 of 7.3 percent
indicating a positive and correlated relationship between these two variables, seed cotton
production and rainfall, at the 5 percent significance level.
Tables 8 and 9 and Figure 5 present the simulation projection of future seed cotton
production to 2025, taking into account fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. The
increase in production would be justified by probable CO2 enrichment due to the increase in
temperature and the adoption of conservation farming practices, including direct seeding.
Despite the very low rate of use of this practice by the producers interviewed (1%), the latter
strategy was found to be effective in plot experiments according to Gérardeaux et al. (2013).

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Figure 3c shows the proportion of temperature influence on seed cotton production,

with an R2 of 40 percent indicating a positive and correlated relationship between these two
variables, seed cotton production and temperature, at the 5 percent significance level.
Tables 10 and 11 present the perceptions and causes of climate change as perceived by
the producers. According to the cotton producers, the major cause of the decrease in rainfall
and the shift in seasons is deforestation because when preparing the soil for agricultural
activities, producers clear the land, then cut the trees, and burn them. Thus, these acts lead to
the disappearance of the forest, thus causing global warming. This argument corroborates
that of Bring and Moussa (n.d.), who report that the northern part of Cameroon is marked
by an act of deforestation and a glaring lack of reforestation. Indeed, the expansion of
subsistence activities such as agriculture and wood harvesting for domestic activities is the
most plausible cause of deforestation in this region. According to our survey data, among the
acts of diversification of producers’ activities away from agriculture, the sale of charcoal is a
major cause of deforestation. The production of charcoal and the sale of dry wood thus
become lucrative secondary activities for producers. This strategy allows cotton producers to

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diversify their income, in addition to growing cotton.
Table 10 and Figure 6 present the results of the field surveys on farmers’ perceptions of
climate change. This result is consistent with the results reported by Njoya et al. (2022) and
Ntali, Lyimo, and Dakyaga (2022), who indicated that drought, flooding, and other climatic
events are among those that threaten water availability, food security, and local livelihoods
in semiarid areas. However, Table 12 identifies low yields, disruption of crop timing, soil
depletion, and plant desiccation as impacts of climate change on cotton production.
According to producers, the negative effects of climate change on cotton productivity are loss
of cotton quality and lower yields. Indeed, the late arrival of the rains and the early cessation
of the rains lead to poor germination of cotton plants, which, according to the producers,
requires reseeding and prevents the cotton from maturing. This has a significant impact on
yield, resulting in lower production and low income. Similarly, the arrival of rains during
the cotton harvest season has some impact on the quality of the cotton and the marketing
date, as wet cotton does not have to be harvested, which delays not only the harvest but also
the marketing period, in addition to poor quality. It should be noted that the purchase price
of cotton in Cameroon varies according to its color and cleanliness. Thus, the cost of white
and clean cotton, known as the first choice, is 250 F/kg in 2022 and increases to 285 F/kg in
2023 (Kenne 2022), which is lower than the price in Nigeria (800 F/kg) (Andzongo 2020) and
higher than the price in Chad (272 F/kg) (Mapagne, n.d.).
The answers to the questions posed to producers are contained in Tables 13 through 16,
which identify the various obstacles to obtaining good production yields. According to the
producers, the expected date of the rains and the duration of the rainy season are two essential
parameters for good cotton production. Indeed, they determine, on the one hand, the sowing
date and therefore the position of the crop cycles and, on the other hand, the duration of the

56
 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

rainy period during which cotton can germinate well. Faced with the disruption of the rainy
season, the producers’ cropping calendar is disrupted, particularly with regard to sowing
dates. The majority of producers opt to diversify their production by growing new crops in
addition to cotton, so cotton producers grow other crops, such as vegetables (usually
legumes), tubers (cassava, potato, macabo, yam, etc.), and cereals (corn, rice, millet, sorghum,
etc.). Producers also practice crop rotation to maximize their chances of production.
The onset and duration of rainfall is crucial for cotton cultivation because it allows the
crop to start. According to our survey data, sowing differs by region; for example, in the
intermediate and humid zones, sowing begins in May and continues until June, while in the
dry zone, sowing begins in June and continues until July. However, to better adapt to the
changing climate, producers first put into practice the methods and strategies proposed by
the supervisory structure, notably SODECOTON, and then their own strategies to overcome
certain obstacles in the field. SODECOTON proposes strategies that allow cotton producers
to cope with climate change and even to reduce the impact of climate change on cotton
production. The first strategy concerns the distribution of selected seeds to producers, which

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consists of selecting improved varieties that respond to the sales niches on the international
market; the second strategy concerns the supply of inputs based on input credit to producers;
and the third strategy concerns the modernization of the production system, which translates
into the replacement of obsolete metrological equipment (replacement of meteorological
stations) and the supply of materials and equipment (automatic seeders). This means that
these modern tools contribute to mitigating the adverse effects of climate change.
Table 17 shows the requirements for the successful implementation of the CSA approach.
After evaluation, it is reported that a percentage of 31 percent would represent a compliance
rate of SODECOTON to these requirements and that a percentage of 69 percent would
indicate the noncompliance of SODECOTON to meet these requirements. One explanation
is the absence of a Cameroonian reference framework that would promote and define the
applicability of the CSA before 2020. This analysis corroborates that reported by Chinedum,
Emmanuel, and Solomon (2015) that there is no explicit policy addressing CSA in Cameroon.
In 2020, Cameroon and some partners, such as the World Bank, developed a Climate
Resilient Agricultural Investment Plan document (World Bank et al. 2020).

Conclusion

The objectives of this study were to examine the effects of climate change on cotton
production and to assess the level of adaptation to climate change by cotton growers and the
Cameroon Cotton Development Company. To do this, statistical tools and methods were
used for data analysis, survey forms were used for data collection, and the list of CSA
requirements was used to examine SODECOTON’s level of compliance in applying CSA
approaches in its current operations.

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

Statistical tests show a positive correlation between cotton production, rainfall, and
temperature. The simulation of future production from 2022 to 2025 revealed that for
rainfall, two out of four years forecast a drop in production, compared with three out of four
years for temperature compared with 2021. One hundred percent of growers surveyed
perceive climate change in terms of irregular rainfall. The adaptation strategies developed by
100 percent of growers include crop rotation practices, crop diversification, the use of
improved seeds, and the use of mineral fertilizers.
This study shows that the variability of rainfall and average temperatures has
consequences for farming activities. The main effects of climate change are poorly distributed
rainfall, flooding, soil degradation, strong winds, unstable cotton yields, and disruption of
the cropping calendar.
For the majority of growers, man-made practices, such as deforestation, remain the main
cause of climate change, although some growers perceive climate change as a natural
phenomenon that can also be caused by the country’s industrialization activity (establishment
of industries in certain parts of the country that emit CO2 into the atmosphere). However, in

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the face of this phenomenon, producers in the various production units, through their
experiences, are adopting strategies (crop diversification, use of selected seeds, changes to the
cropping calendar, use of irrigation for other crops, shifting of sowing dates, practice of crop
rotation, use of mineral or organic fertilizers, change of crops, practice of direct sowing under
plant cover in the case of cotton, etc.). However, these strategies seem insufficient in the face of
climate change, the negative effects of which are becoming increasingly pronounced. In
addition, farmers are supported in their efforts to combat climate change by the supervisory
structure, in particular SODECOTON, which proposes strategies to address this phenomenon
through the distribution of selected seeds to farmers and the supply of inputs and mineral
fertilizers, to name but a few. However, these strategies, which are seen as solutions to mitigate
the effects of climate change, do not seem to be enough for farmers.
We do not claim to offer a panacea for the phenomenon of climate change, but we do
feel it necessary to offer some advice. The fight against climate change must be managed
locally, taking into account local knowledge and practices. The adoption of CSA approaches
by SODECOTON and their implementation in production units by cotton growers could
help to further mitigate the negative effects of climate change. However, large-scale studies
questioning the implementation of CSA by local producers will help to identify the true local
realities and even the real changes that have taken place. In any case, these actions must be
accompanied and/or supported by the Cameroonian government, given the strong
dependence of its economy on agricultural activities. In addition, public and private
organizations and other partner institutions in Cameroon must contribute their expertise to
support producers and SODECOTON in developing effective strategies for resilience to
climate change. The negative effects of climate change could be mitigated by adaptation
measures based on compliance with CSA requirements.

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 BASSIROU ET AL.: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COTTON PRODUCTION

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank ASECNA, CCAA, and SODECOTON for providing the data
used in this study; they would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their
constructive comments on the manuscript.

AI Acknowledgment

The authors declare that generative AI or AI-assisted technologies were not used in any way
to prepare, write, or complete essential authoring tasks in this manuscript.

Informed Consent

All authors contributed to the conceptualization and methodology of the study. All authors
reviewed the manuscript and obtained informed consent from all study participants.

Conflict of Interest

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No conflicts of interest are revealed by the authors regarding the publication of this manuscript.

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THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS AND RESPONSES

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Dr. Yaouba Bassirou: PhD in Industrial Environmental Management, Laboratory of

Energy, Materials, Modelling and Methods, National Higher Polytechnic School,
University of Douala, Cameroon
Corresponding Author’s Email: [email protected]

Dr. Ndzana Georges Martial: Lecturer-Researcher, Faculty of Agronomy and

Agricultural Sciences, University of Dschang, Cameroon
Email: [email protected]

Lawe Djague Theodore: Head of the Research and Development Division of the
Cameroon Cotton Development Company (SODECOTON), Cameroon
Email: [email protected]

Ndoh Mbue Innocent: Professor, Department of Quality, Hygiene, Safety and Industrial
Environment, National Higher Polytechnic School, University of Douala, Cameroon

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Email: [email protected]

Bitondo Dieudonné: Professor, Head of the Department of Quality, Hygiene, Safety

and Industrial Environment, National Higher Polytechnic School, University of Douala,
Cameroon
Email: [email protected]

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