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AQA A Level Psychology Your notes

7.4 Statistics: Inferential & Descriptive

Contents
7.4.1 The Sign Test
7.4.2 Probability & Significance
7.4.3 Factors Affecting the Choice of Statistical Test

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7.4.1 The Sign Test

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The Sign Test
What is the Sign Test?
The sign test is a method used in interferential statistics to determine whether or not an observed
result (from an experiment) is significant or not
It is a non-parametric test which means that there is no assumption that the data will follow a normal
distribution
It is known as the Sign Test as it is based on the number of plus or minus signs present in the data after
the calculations have taken place
What criteria determine the use of the Sign Test?:
investigating a difference (i.e. an experiment)
repeated measures design (i.e. each participant experiences all conditions of the IV)
nominal data (i.e. data in categories)
Is the hypothesis directional or non-directional (this will determine which critical value to apply to the
data)
Advantages of using the Sign Test
It is a simple test which is easy to carry out
It can be applied across a range of situations where a normal distribution cannot be assumed
Disadvantages of using the Sign Test
Nominal data is the least powerful type of data which means that the Sign Test can sometimes be
unreliable
It may not be suitable for use with small samples or when the median has been used as the measure of
central tendency

An abnormal distribution: one of the criteria for using the Sign Test

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Worked example
Your notes
LEVEL: 3 MARKS
A researcher hypothesised that exercising before taking a memory test would significantly improve
memory. These are the results showing the memory test scores per participant:

Participant Exercise before test No exercise Difference Sign of difference

1 15 9 6

2 7 12 -5

3 18 3 15

4 5 5 0

5 11 12 -1

6 9 17 -8

7 13 8 5

8 6 16 -10

9 10 14 -4

12.1 Using the data in the table above carry out the Sign Test and calculate the value of S.
S = [3]
AO2 = 3 marks
For full marks the answer should correctly carry out the Sign Test: subtract ‘No exercise’ from ‘Exercise
before test’ and add each score to the ‘Difference’ column. Add a + or – according to whether each
difference is positive or negative then count up the number of +s and –s. The lower of the two scores
gives the S value. In this case the S value is 3 (as there are 3 positive signs).

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7.4.2 Probability & Significance

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Probability & Significance
What is meant by Probability and Significance?
Psychologists are interested in finding out if the results of their studies show real differences or
correlations, or if the results are due to chance factors (e.g. the probability of the IV having affected
the DV)
To determine whether results are significant and not due to chance factors, researchers use a measure
of the level of significance
Researchers must decide how large an effect or relationship is required to conclude that the observed
result is unlikely to be due to chance; this decision is reflected in the level of significance applied to the
data
The level of significance is expressed as a decimal value where 'p' stands for the probability that
chance factors are responsible for the results.
For most purposes in psychology, the 5% level of significance is appropriate which is expressed as p <
0.05 (i.e. the probability of chance factors producing the observed result is less than or equal to 5%)
The research will then use statistical tables to find the critical value which will determine whether or not
they can reject the null hypothesis

Inferential statistics enable us to draw inferences about the population whereas descriptive statistics
can only tell us about the sample taken from that population
The Use of Statistical Tables
Once the researcher has conducted a statistical test they have an observed value which is used to
determine whether results are significant

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This observed value needs to be compared to the critical value in the statistical tables
Each statistical test has its own critical values table i.e. the critical values table for the Mann-Whitney
test is different to the table for the Wilcoxon test Your notes
In order to find out whether or not the observed value is significant the researcher must ask the
following questions which will help them to use the critical values table properly:

Is the test one-tailed or two-tailed i.e. does the alternative hypothesis predict the direction of difference
or does it simply state that ‘there will be a difference’?

What is the N value i.e. how many participants are in the sample?

Which level of significance is being applied i.e. the standard is 0.05

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Your notes

Maguire’s (2000) research using London taxi drivers clearly gets the thumbs up for passing the p < 0.05
test

Exam Tip
Make sure that you are precise when writing an exam response on probability and significance.
Students sometimes mistakenly report that the 0.5 level is used as the baseline standard for
determining significance when of course it is the 0.05 level. 0.5 is a 50% probability of the observed
results being due to chance which is of course far too high and would mean that the researcher could
not claim a significant result

What are Type I and Type II Errors?

A Type I Error occurs when the null hypothesis is rejected when it should have been accepted i.e. the
researcher claims that the results are significant when in fact they are not (also known as a ‘false
positive’)
A Type I Error is more likely to happen when the researcher uses a probability value that is too high e.g.
0.1 rather than 0.05
A Type II Error occurs when the null hypothesis is accepted when it should have been rejected i.e. the
researcher claims that the results are not significant when in fact they are (also known as a ‘false
negative’)
A Type II Error is more likely to happen when the researcher uses a probability value that is too low e.g.
0.01 instead of 0.05
Using a 0.05 significance level guards against making either a Type I or a Type II Error

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Worked example
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LEVEL: 3 MARKS
Dr Stats has conducted a study which looks at whether or not a diet of oranges and beef can improve
IQ compared to a normal diet. After conducting the study Dr Stats concluded that oranges and beef
do indeed increase IQ significantly using a significance level of 0.10.
With reference to the study outlined in the stem above explain why Dr Stats is likely to have made a
Type I Error in his conclusion and suggest how he might rectify this. [3]
AO2 = 3 marks
For full marks the answer should include all of the following:
A Type I Error is likely to have occurred because the significance level of 0.10 has been set too high. Dr
Stats could rectify the error by setting his probability level at 0.05 which means that the probability of
chance factors affecting the result is 5% or less.

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7.4.3 Factors Affecting the Choice of Statistical Test

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Factors Affecting the Choice of Statistical Test
Which statistical tests do I need to know about?
The Mann-Whitney test (non-parametric)
The Wilcoxon test (non-parametric)
Chi-squared test (non-parametric)
Spearmans’ rho (non-parametric)
Unrelated t-test (parametric)
Related t-test (parametric)
Pearson’s r (parametric)
The difference between parametric and non-parametric tests
Parametric tests assume a normal distribution; non-parametric tests do not
Parametric tests use interval data: non-parametric tests may use nominal or ordinal data
Parametric tests assume homogeneity of variance; non-parametric tests do not
Parametric tests are more powerful than non-parametric tests
What factors determine the choice of statistical test?
Is it a test of difference i.e. a lab experiment or a test of association i.e. a correlation?
Is the design independent measures, repeated measures or matched pairs (tests of difference only)?
Is the data nominal, ordinal or interval?
Nominal data is data arranged in categories; ordinal data is data which can be ranked without each
value being equal in measurement; interval data is data where the intervals between each value are
equal in measurement

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Your notes

Godden & Baddeley’s (1975) research on context-dependent forgetting using divers is an

example of a test of difference: a ‘deeply’ interesting study…

TESTS OF TESTS OF TESTS OF

DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATION

RELATED DESIGN UNRELATED DESIGN

NOMINAL
Sign Test Chi-squared N/A
DATA

ORDINAL
Wilcoxon test Mann-Whitney test Spearman’s rho
DATA

INTERVAL
Related t-test Unrelated t-test Pearson’s r
DATA

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Worked example
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LEVEL: 4 MARKS
Bella has conducted research using elite athletes as her sample. She measured the body temperature
of her participants who had either just run 10K or had rested for 30 minutes. Bella wants to carry out a
parametric test on this data.
Explain whether or not Bella will be able to carry out a parametric test on this data. Justify your
answer. [4]
AO2 = 4 marks
For full marks the answer should state that Bella should be able to carry out a parametric test as her
data is interval (temperature measurements have distinct and equal intervals between each
measurement); she can expect to see a normal distribution of data (because all of the participants are
elite athletes they are likely to experience similar body temperatures during exercise or when resting;
plus body temperature is a relatively stable variable). She can also expect homogeneity of variance
(the standard deviations per condition are likely to be similar due to the nature of the sample – all elite
athletes who are likely to have similar levels of health and fitness).

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