Engineering Data Analysis

EDA 101

1 Sample Space, Event Space, and Counting Techniques

1.1 Sample Space and Event Space
A sample space is a collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment. The sample space is denoted by S.

Example 1.1 Enumerate all the possible outcomes of the following experiments.

a) Rolling two dice.

b) Asking a PRMSU student his/her semestral grade in a subject.

An event space is a collection of particular outcomes in a sample space. An event space is denoted by Latin letters.

1.1.1 Event Operations

The union of two events A and B, denoted A → B is the collection of outcomes that are either in A or in B or both.
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted A ↑ B is the collection of outcomes that are in both A and B.
The complement of an event A relative to a sample space S, denoted A→ , is the collection of outcomes that are in the
sample space S but not in A.

S S S
A B A B A

A→B A↑B A→

Example 1.2 A single card is drawn from a standard deck of playing cards (the experiment). Define the following events:

B The card drawn is a black suit.

D The card drawn is a diamond suit.
F The card drawn is a face card.

Enumerate the outcomes in these events.

a) S b) B → c) B → D
d) F ↑ B e) F → D
→
f) (B → D)→

1.1.2 Counting Techniques

The number of outcomes in a random experiment is vital in understanding the concept of probability. For example,
suppose the experiment is to draw three cards at the same time from a standard deck of playing cards. The sample space
S has 22,100 di!erent outcomes. 9,360 of these outcomes have exactly one face card.

Multiplication Rule for Counting

Suppose a random experiment consists of k stages. Let n1 be the number of possible outcomes for the first stage, n2 be
the number of possible outcomes for the second stage, and so on. The number of possible outcomes N in the sample

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 space S is given by
N = n1 ↓ n2 ↓ · · · ↓ nk ( 1.1)

Example 1.3 a) A canteen in the university o!ers a meal of rice and viand. A customer can choose one of three flavors of rice
(plain, Java, fried) and one viand (pork, beef, chicken, veggie). How many di!erent meal combinations can be
served by this canteen?
b) In how many di!erent ways can the 5 finalists of a beauty pageant be awarded titles (winner down to fourth
runner up)?

A permutation is an ordered arrangement of all or some objects in a collection.

n-Permutation
The di!erent ways of arranging all n distinct objects linearly is

n Pn = n! ( 1.2)

Example 1.4 Four married couples bought eight seats in a row for a concert. In how many ways can they be seated

a) in any order;
b) men and women alternate seats;
c) all couples sit together;
d) a particular couple sit next to each other;
e) all the women sit together?
f) two particular women refuse to sit next to each other?

r-Permutation
The di!erent ways of ordering r of the n distinct objects linearly is

n!
n Pr = ( 1.3)
(n ↔ r)!

Example 1.5 How many di!erent ways can three of the eight finalists of the 2024 men’s Olympic floor exercise finish the top three
spots? How many of these arrangements have Carlos Yulo at the top spot?

A set of n distinct objects is said to be partitioned into k cells if each object belongs to one and only one cell. An
arrangement of the objects into k cells is called a partition.

Partition
Let a set of n objects be partitioned in such a way that r1 objects are in cell 1, r2 objects are in cell 2, and so forth, and
rk objects are in cell k. The total number of di!erent partitions of this design is
! "
n n!
= ( 1.4)
r1 , r2 , . . . , rk r1 ! ↓ r2 ! ↓ · · · ↓ rk !

Example 1.6 Eight conference delegates were assigned to one 4-person room and two 2-person rooms. How many di!erent room
assignments are possible?

A combination is a partition of a set into two groups, with r objects in one group and the rest (n ↔ r) in the other group.

Combination
The di!erent number of ways of selecting r objects from among n di!erent objects is
! "
n n!
= ( 1.5)
r r! ↓ (n ↔ r)!

Example 1.7 A winning lotto number is a set of six numbers drawn in any order. Although the draw is done sequentially, one
wins if he/she gets all six numbers. How many di!erent lotto numbers are in

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 a) the regular lotto (6/42) b) the MEGA lotto (6/45) c) the SUPER Lotto (6/49)?

Exercises for Chapter 1.

A card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. b. only the mathematics books must stand together?
Enumerate the outcomes of S if 10. In how many ways can 10 objects be split into two groups containing
1. the rank and suit are taken into account; 4 and 6 objects, respectively?
2. the rank is not taken into account; 11. In how many ways can a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9
3. the suit is not taken into account. people?

Determine the number of outcomes in the sample or event space for each 12. Out of 5 mathematicians and 7 physicists, a committee consisting of 2
of the following. mathematicians and 3 physicists is to be formed. In how many ways
can this be done if
4. A committee of 3 members is to be formed consisting of one repre- a. any mathematician and any physicist can be included,
sentative each from labor, management, and the public. If there are 3
possible representatives from labor, 2 from management and 4 from the b. one particular physicist must be on the committee,
public, how many di!erent member compositions can the committee c. two particular mathematicians cannot be on the committee?
have? 13. From 7 consonants and 5 vowels, how many words can be formed
5. In how many ways can 5 di!erently colored marbles be arranged in a consisting of 4 di!erent consonants and 3 di!erent vowels? The words
row? need not have meaning.
6. In how many ways can 10 people be seated on a bench if only 4 seats 14. A set of three cards are drawn simultaneously from a standard deck of
are available? playing cards. Show that
7. It is required to seat 5 men and 4 women in a row so that the women a. the sample space S has 22,100 di!erent outcomes,
occupy the even places. How many such arrangements are possible? b. the event of getting exactly one face card has 9,360 outcomes.
8. How many 4-digit numbers can be formed with the 10 digits if 15. A class of only 5 students was divided into three groups. How many
a. repetitions are allowed, di!erent ways can they be grouped if
b. repetitions are not allowed, a. one group can have three members;
c. the last digit must be zero and repetitions are not allowed? b. any group can have at most two members?
9. Four di!erent mathematics books, six di!erent physics books, and two 16. In how many di!erent ways can six people line up to get on a bus
di!erent chemistry books are to be arranged on a shelf. How many a. in any order;
di!erent arrangements are possible if b. if three people insist on following each other; item a certain two
a. the books in each particular subject must all stand together, people refuse to fall in line next to each other?

2 Probability
2.1 Simple Probability
A probability is a measure of the chance of an event occurring. It is a function that assigns or associates a non-negative
number to an event. If p is a number associated with the event E, we write

P[E] = p

Properties of the probability function P[·].

i. P[S] = 1.
ii. If ⊋ is an event with no outcome, then P[⊋] = 0.
iii. For any event E, 0 ↗ P[E] ↗ 1.

Equiprobable Outcome
Let S have N outcomes, each of which has the same chance of occurring as another. If E is the event of an outcome
occurring, then
1
P[E] = ( 2.1)
N
If the event D has k outcomes, then
k
P[D] = ( 2.2)
N

Example 2.1 Refer to the experiment in Example 1.2 on page 1. Calculate the probability of each event.

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 a) B → b) B → D c) F ↑ B
d) F → D
→
e) (B → D) →

Addition Rules for Probability

For any two events A and B from the same random experiment,

P[A → B] = P[A] + P[B] ↔ P[A ↑ B] ( 2.3)

Two events A and B are exclusive events if A ↑ B = ⊋. The probability of the event A → B for mutually exclusive
events is
P[A → B] = P[A] + P[B] ( 2.4)
The events A1 , A2 , . . . , Ak are said to be mutually exclusive if for any two di!erent events Ai and Aj , Ai ↑ Aj = ⊋.

P[A1 → A2 → · · · → Ak ] = P[A1 ] + P[A2 ] + · · · + P[Ak ] ( 2.5)

For complementary events E and E → ,

P[E → E → ] = 1 ( 2.6)

Example 2.2 John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a university by the end of the semester. After
being interviewed at two companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an o!er from company A is
0.8, and his probability of getting an o!er from company B is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get
o!ers from both companies is 0.5, what is the probability that he will get at least one o!er from these two companies?

2.2 Conditional Probability

A conditional probability of an event B is a reassessment of the chance of B occurring when some information provided
by another event A becomes available. The notation is P[B | A].

Example 2.3 Two fair dice are rolled. Let B be the event of getting a sum of 6 in the two dice. Evaluate the probability of the
event B based on the following:
a) no additional information was provided; b) one of the dice has the number 1;
c) one of the dice has the number 4; d) one of the dice has the number 6.

Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B under the knowledge that the outcome is in some event A, is

P[B ↑ A]
P[B | A] = ( 2.7)
P[A]

Example 2.4 Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adults in a small town who have completed the requirements
for a college degree and are categorized below.

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900

One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout the country to publicize the advantages
of establishing new industries in the town. Let M be the event that a man is chosen, and E be the event that the
chosen person is employed. Evaluate the following probabilities:
a) P[M ] b) P[E] c) P[M | E]
d) P[E | M ] e) P[M | E]
→
f) P[E | M → ]

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 Other Formulas

P[A ↑ B] + P[A ↑ B → ] = P[A] ( 2.8)

P[B | A] + P[B → | A] = 1 ( 2.9)

A B

A ↑ B→ A↑B

2.3 Independent Events

An event B is independent of A if the information contained in A does not alter the probability of B.

P[B | A] = P[B]

If B is independent of A, then A is independent of B, and

P[A | B] = P[A]

Example 2.5 Two cards are drawn in succession from a well-shu”ed ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that the
second card is an ace given that the first card is an ace, if the first card is
a) not replaced; b) replaced.

2.4 Product Rule for Probability

General Product Rule
Let A and B be events from a sample space S. The probability that both events occur, P[A ↑ B] is
#
P[A] · P[B | A]
P[A ↑ B] = ( 2.10)
P[B] · P[A | B]

Example 2.6 In 1970, 11% of Americans completed four years of college; 43% of them were women. In 1990, 22% of Americans
completed four years of college; 53% of them were women (Time, Jan. 19, 1996).
a) Given that a person completed four years of college in 1970, what is the probability that the person was a
woman?
b) What is the probability that a woman finished four years of college in 1990?
c) What is the probability that a man had not finished college in 1990?

Product Rule for Independent Events

If A and B are independent events from a sample space S, then

P[A ↑ B] = P[A] · P[B] ( 2.11)

Example 2.7 A manufacturer of a flu vaccine is concerned about the quality of its flu serum. Batches of serum are processed by
three di!erent departments having rejection rates of 0.10, 0.08 and 0.12 respectively. The inspections by the three
departments are sequential and independent.
a) What is the probability that a batch of serum survives the first departmental inspection but is rejected by the
second department?
b) What is the probability that a batch of serum is rejected by the third department?

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 2.5 Total Probability Rule
Total Probability Rule
Let E1 , E2 , . . . , Ek be a sequence of mutually exclusive events exhaustive of S. For any event B,

P[B] = P[E1 ] · P[B | E1 ] + P[E2 ] · P[B | E2 ] + · · · + P[Ek ] · P[B | Ek ] ( 2.12)

E2

E1 Ek

Figure 1: Geometric illustration of the total probability rule.

Example 2.8 In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1 , B2 , and B3 , make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products.
It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each machine, respectively, are
defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?

Exercises for Chapter 2.

1. A pair of fair dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting the seniors, and 5 of the graduate students received an A for the course.
If a student is chosen at random from this class and is found to have
a. a total of 8 b. at most a total of 5. earned an A, what is the probability that he or she is a senior?

2. If P[A] = 0.3, P[B] = 0.2 and P[A → B] = 0.1, determine the 7. The probability that a married man watches a certain television show
following probabilities? is 0.4, and the probability that a married woman watches the show is
0.5. The probability that a man watches the show given that his wife
a. P[A→ ] b. P[A ↑ B] does is 0.7. Find the probability that
c. P[A → B]
→
d. P[A → B → ] a. a married couple watches the show;
e. P[(A ↑ B)→ ] f. P[A→ ↑ B] b. a wife watches the show, given that her husband does;
c. at least one member of a married couple will watch the show.
3. If A, B and C are mutually exclusive events with P[A] = 0.2,
8. A real estate agent has eight master keys to open new homes. Only
P[B] = 0.3 and P[C] = 0.4, determine the following probabilities:
one key will open any given house. If three of these homes are usually
a. P[A ↑ B ↑ C] b. P[A → B → C] left unlocked, what is the probability that the real estate agent can get
into a specific home if the agent selects 3 master keys at random before
c. P[A → B] d. P[(A ↑ B) → C] leaving the o#ce?
e. P[A → B → C ]
→ → →
9. A recreational equipment supplier finds that among orders that include
tents, 40% also include sleeping mats. Only 5% of orders that do not
4. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 include tents do include sleeping mats. Also, 20% of orders include
books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the probability that tents. Determine the following probabilities:
a. the dictionary is selected; a. The order includes sleeping mats;
b. 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected? b. the order includes a tent given it includes sleeping mats.
5. Interest centers around the life of an electronic component. Suppose 10. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four di!erent
it is known that the probability that the component survives for more locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of the locations
than 6000 hours is 0.42. Suppose also that the probability that the L1 , L2 , L3 and L4 will be operated 40%, 30%, 20% and 30% of the
component survives no longer than 4000 hours is 0.04. time. A person who is speeding on her way to work has probabilities
a. What is the probability that the life of the component is less than of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively of passing through these locations.
or equal to 6000 hours? a. What is the probability that he/she will receive a speeding ticket?
b. What is the probability that the life is greater than 4000 hours? b. IF the person received a speeding ticket on her way to work, what
6. A class in advanced physics is composed of 10 juniors, 30 seniors, and is the probability that she passed through the radar trap located at
10 graduate students. The final grades show that 3 of the juniors, 10 of L2 ?