8

Mathematics
Quarter 4 – Module 6
Experimental and Theoretical
Probability
Problems Involving Probabilities
of Simple Events
(Week 9)
About the Module

This module was designed and written with you in mind. It is here to help you
understand the experimental and theoretical probability and solving problems
involving probabilities of simple events. The scope of this module permits it to be
used in many different learning situations. The language used recognizes the diverse
vocabulary level of students. The lessons are arranged to follow the standard
sequence of the course.

The module contains:

Lesson 1: Illustrates an experimental probability and theoretical probability
Lesson 2: Solves problems involving probabilities of simple events
After going through this module, you should be able to:
1. define a theoretical and experimental probability;
2. illustrate experimental and theoretical probability; and
3. solve problems involving probabilities of simple events.

ii
 What I Know (Pre-Test)

Directions: Read the questions carefully and write only the letter of your
answer on a separate sheet of paper.
1. An activity or process with an observable result is called __________.
A. an event C. an experiment
B. an outcome D. a sample space
2. It refers to a subset of a sample space.
A. event C. experiment
B. outcome D. sample event
3. One of the observable results of an experiment is called _________.
A. an event C. a sample space
B. an outcome D. a sample event
4. It is determined by conducting an experiment and recording or observing the
outcome it produced.
A. Theoretical permutation C. Experimental probability
B. Theoretical combination D. Experimental combination
5. It refers to the number of ways the event can occur (favorable outcomes)
divided by the number of total outcomes.
A. Theoretical probability C. Experimental permutation
B. Theoretical experiment D. Experimental combination
6. What is the probability of getting a consonant from the English alphabet?
A. 1/26 B. 5/26 C. 20/26 D. 21/26
7. What is the probability of getting a number greater than one that is odd in a
single roll of a die?
A. ½ B. 1/3 C. 5/6 D. 2/3
8. What is the theoretical probability of NOT landing on red?
Refer to the illustration at the right.
A. 25% B. 50% C. 65% D. 66.7 %
9. What is the theoretical probability of landing on red?
Refer to the illustration at the right.
A. 33.3% B. 36% C. 40% D. 43%
10. What is the experimental probability of NOT landing on yellow? You spin the
spinner 25 times. Refer to the table below on the result.

Yellow Purple Orange White Red Green Blue

III IIII IIIII III III II IIIII
22 7 1 0
A. B. C. D.
25 8 8 25

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 Lesson Experimental and Theoretical
1 Probability

What I Need To Know

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

• illustrate a theoretical and experimental probability;

• differentiate between an experimental probability and a theoretical
probability; and
• solve problems involving experimental and theoretical probability.

What’s In

REMEMBER:

Probability is
an estimation on
how likely an
event will occur.

https://bit.ly/3tzqVV1

What’s New

Which do you think of the two examples below is an experimental probability and a
theoretical probability?

A B

You tossed a coin 10 times and Tossing a coin and getting a head or a
recorded a head 3 times, a tail 7 times. 1
tail is .
2
3
P(head) = 1
10 P(head) =
2

7
P(tail) = P(tail) =
1
10
2

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 What is It

Probability can have two approaches. It can be an experimental probability or

a theoretical probability. The example A above is an example of an experimental
probability.
What is an experimental probability?
The experimental probability of an event E is the number of times that event
E occurs in performing the experiment divided by the total number of trials. It is
found by repeating the experiment and observing the outcomes.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐸 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠

P(E)=
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
Example 1: In an experiment, a coin was tossed 15 times. Out of 15 trials, the
student recorded that six tosses produced a head and nine tosses produced a tail.
What is the probability of getting a head and a tail based on this experiment?

Solution:
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) = https://bit.ly/2S5V2Xc
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠

𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) =
6 2
= = 0.4 = 40% Therefore, there is a 40% chance of
15 5 getting a head.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙
𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠
9 3 Therefore, there is a 60% chance of
𝑃(𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙) = = = 0.6 = 60% getting a tail.
15 5

Example 2: The following table shows the results from the roll of a die.

Die roll
1 2 3 4 5 6
outcome
Frequency 12 11 14 12 11 13

The total number of rolls is 12+11+14+12+11+13 = 73

A. What is the probability of getting a 3?
𝟏𝟒
P(𝟑) = 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟏𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟏𝟗. 𝟏𝟖%
𝟕𝟑
B. What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, and 3?
Shorturl.at/drEY4
12 + 11 + 14 𝟑𝟕
𝑃(1,2,3) = = 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟓𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝟓𝟎. 𝟔𝟖%
73 𝟕𝟑
C. What is the probability of getting an even number?

11 + 12 + 13 𝟑𝟔
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = = 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟒𝟗. 𝟑𝟐%
73 𝟕𝟑

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What is theoretical probability?
Theoretical probability of an event is the number of ways the event can
occur (favorable outcomes) divided by the number of total outcomes. It is what is
expected to happen based on mathematics.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒)
The example B in What’s New is an example of theoretical probability. Since
there are only two favorable outcomes in tossing the coin, which are the head and
the tail, you have a 50/50 chance to get a head and a tail.

Example 3: A single die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a three?

A die is composed of six numbers, the elements of the sample space are
𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}. Thus, the sample space has six elements. Getting a three in rolling
a die will happen only once. Therefore,
𝟏
𝑃 (3) = 𝟔 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟏𝟕 𝒐𝒓 𝟏𝟔. 𝟔𝟕%
Example 4: A bag contains 10 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 2 yellow marbles.
Find the theoretical probability of getting a blue marble.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 (𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒)

8 𝟐
P(blue)= = 𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟒 = 𝟒𝟎%
20
Both probabilities are ratios that compare the number of favorable outcomes
to the total number of possible outcomes. In experimental probability you consider
the actual experiment and record the outcomes. In theoretical probability you
consider what you expect to happen without conducting an actual experiment. As an
experiment is repeated more number of times, its experimental probability gets closer
to its theoretical probability.

What’s More

Answer the activity below to solidify your understanding and skills of the topic.
Activity 1.1
Directions: Read the problems carefully and give what is asked.
For numbers 1-3 refer to the table below.
After 20 trials of rolling a fair die, the results were tabulated in the table below.
Number showed
1 2 3 4 5 6
after rolling
Number of times in
2 3 4 3 6 2
20 trials
1. What is the probability of getting a 2?
2. What is the probability of getting a 4?
3. What kind of probability did you use in answering numbers 1 and 2?
4. Your Math teacher asked you to bring coloring materials for your activity.
Your bag contains 10 colored pens with shades of red, 8 colored pens with
shades of blue and 2 colored pens with shades of yellow. Find the
probability of getting a shade of blue colored pens.
5. Find the theoretical probability of rolling an even number when you roll a
die containing numbers 1-6. Express the probability as a fraction, decimal
and percent.
6. What is the difference between an experimental probability to a theoretical
probability?

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 What I Need To Remember

• The experimental probability of an event E is the number of times that

event E occurs in performing the experiment divided by the total
number of trials.
• Theoretical probability of an event is the number of ways the event
can occur (favorable outcomes) divided by the number of total
outcomes.

Lesson Problems Involving Probabilities of

2 Simple Events
What I Need To Know

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

• apply knowledge learned in the probabilities of simple events; and
• solve problems involving probabilities of simple events.

What’s In

REVIEW
State whether the statement is TRUE or FALSE.
1. The experimental probability of an event is the same as its theoretical
probability.
1
2. The theoretical probability of getting a head when a coin is flipped is .
2
3. The experimental probability of an event may vary with each experiment.
4. The theoretical probability of an event is constant.
5. As an experiment is repeated more number of times, its experiment
probability gets closer to its theoretical probability.

What’s New

Match column A with column B.

Column A Column B
A day is chosen from a week. What
is the probability of selecting a: A. 2 ⁄ 7
1. Wednesday?
2. Day that starts with letter S? B. 1

A fair coin is tossed. What is the C. ½

probability of:
3. Showing a tail? D. 0
4. Showing either head or tail?
5. Showing neither head nor E. 1/7
tail?

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 What is It

In solving problems related to probability of simple events, we are going to use

the formula.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Example 1: A pack of Lollipop has 5 flavors, 10 orange, 9 strawberry, 7 lemon,
6 grapes and 8 apples. A lollipop is picked at random.
a. How many lollipops are there in all?
b. What is the probability of the flavor picked is strawberry?
c. What is the probability of the flavor picked is apple?
d. What is the probability of the flavor picked is orange?
e. What is the probability of the flavor picked is grapes?
Solutions:
a. There are 40 lollipops
b. Applying the formula

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
9
𝑃(𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦) = 𝑜𝑟 0.225 = 22.5%
40
8 1
c. 𝑃(𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑒) = = = 0.2 = 20%
40 5
10 1
d. 𝑃(𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒) = = = 0.25 = 25%
40 4
6 3
e. 𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑠) = = = 0.15 = 15%
40 20

Example 2: A company is having a smartphone give away. They put all the
smart phone in a box. Customers may choose a phone without
looking at the color. Inside the bag are 4 orange, 5 blue, 6 green
and 5 pink smartphones. If Maria chooses one phone at random,
what is the probability that she will choose an orange smartphone?
Solutions:
Given: 4 orange smartphones
5 blue smartphones
6 green smartphones
5 pink smartphones
Total: 20 smartphones

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
4 1
𝑃(𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒) = 20 = 5 = 20%
Therefore, there is a 20% chance of choosing an orange smartphone

What’s More

Now it’s your turn!

Activity 1.2
Directions: Answer the following problems completely.
1. Sam owns a large fish store with many colors of fish. He keeps all of the fish
in a large aquarium. In his main aquarium, he has 5 red fish, 6 blue fish, 14
white fish and 5 green fish. A customer comes into the store and wants to buy
a blue fish to take home.

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 a. How many fishes are there in all?
b. What is the probability of the fish picked is white?
c. What is the probability of the fish picked is green?
d. What is the probability of the fish picked is red?
e. What is the probability that the first fish picked by Sam is blue?

2. A computer company manufactures 2500 computer each day. An average of

100 of these computers are returned with defect. What is the probability that
the computer you purchased is NOT defective?
3. The blood groups of 200 people are distributed as follows: 50 have type A
blood, 65 have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood.
If a person from this group is selected at random, what is the probability that
this person has A blood type?

What I Need To Remember

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Use the formula above to find the probability of simple events.

What I Can Do

Coin Flipping
a. Flip a coin. What is the probability of getting a head?
b. Do this activity.
Flip a coin 30 times. Record the outcome of each flip.
Example: Number of heads: III
Number of tails: IIII
c. Write the experimental probabilities of each event
P(head) =
P(tail) =
d. Compare the theoretical probability of the event of getting a head to its
experimental probability. Are they equal?
e. Flip a coin 60 times. Record the outcome of each flip.
f. Write the experimental probabilities of each event.
g. Are the experimental probabilities closer to the theoretical probabilities?
If you do the experiment 100 times, do you expect experimental
probabilities to get even closer to the theoretical probabilities? Why or why
not?

7
 Assessment

Directions: Read the questions carefully and write only the letter of your
answer on a separate sheet.
1. An activity or process with an observable result is called __________.
A. an event C. an experiment
B. an outcome D. a sample space
2. It is an estimation on how likely an event will occur.
A. Experiment C. Probability
B. Outcome D. Sample event
3. One of the observable results of an experiment is called _________.
A. an event C. a sample space
B. an outcome D. a sample event
4. It is determined by conducting an experiment and recording or observing the
outcome it produced.
A. Theoretical permutation C. Experimental probability
B. Theoretical combination D. Experimental combination
5. It refers to the number of ways the event can occur (favorable outcomes)
divided by the number of total outcomes.
A. Theoretical probability C. Experimental permutation
B. Theoretical experiment D. Experimental combination
6. What is the probability of getting a number more than six in a single roll of
a die?
A. 0 B. 0.5 C. 0.75 D. 1
7. What is the theoretical probability of landing on green?
Refer to the illustration at the right.
A. 33.3% B. 36.3% C. 40% D. 43%
8. What is the experimental probability of landing on blue? You spin the
spinner 25 times. Refer to the table below on the result.
Yellow Purple Orange White Red Green Blue
III IIII IIIII III III II IIIII
22 7 1 0
A. B. C. D.
25 8 8 25

9. Mrs. Castro asked her students to do an activity. Afterwards, her students

noticed that the experimental probability of getting tails is 48%, while the
mathematical/theoretical probability is 50%. Being an attentive student,
how would you explain this to your classmates?
A. The experimental probability is wrong.
B. We should always rely on mathematical/theoretical probability
C. It is normal for experimental probabilities to vary from theoretical
probabilities but for a large number of trials, the two will be very close.
D. It is abnormal for the experimental probabilities to differ from the
mathematical/ theoretical probabilities because the results must be the
same.
10. The blood groups of 200 people are distributed as follows: 50 have type A
blood, 65 have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB
blood. If a person from this group is selected at random, what is the
probability that this person has O blood type?
A. 20% B. 25% C. 30% D. 35%

8
 9
Activity 1.2 Activity 1.1
1. a. 30 fishes 1. 3/20 or 0.15 or 15%
b. 7/15 or 0.47 or 46.67% 2. 3/20 or 0.15 or 15%
c. 1/6 or 0.17 or 16.67% 3. Experimental
d. 1/6 or 0.17 or 16.67% probability
e. 1/5 or 0.2 or 20% 4. 2/5 or 0.4 or 40%
2. 96% 5. 3/6 = ½, 0.5, 50%
3. 25%
ANSWER KEY
References:
Electronic Sources:
“Probability of Simple Events”, slideplayer.com, accessed May 11, 2021,
https://www.google.com/amp/s/slideplayer.com/amp/9191738

Books:
Abuzo, Emmanuel P., et al. Mathematics 8 Learner’s Module. “Introduction to
Probability”. Department of Education-Instructional Materials Council Secretariat.
2nd Floor Dorm G, Philsports Complex, Meralco Avenue, Pasig City. 2013

Alagano, Robelyn F., et al. Mathematics for the 21st Century Learner. “Probability an
Introduction”. DIWA Learning Systems Inc. 4/F SEDCCO 1 Bldg, Legaspi
Village,1229 Makati City, Philippines. 2015

Nivera, Gladys C., et al. Grade 8 Mathematics Patterns and Practicalities.

“Theoretical and Experimental Probabilities”. Salesiana BOOKS by Don Boco Press,
Inc., Antonio Arnaiz cor. Chino Roces Avenues, Makati

Images:
Clipart : retrieved May 11,2021, Vecteezy.com
https://bit.ly/3tzqVV1

Congratulations!
You are now ready for the next module. Always remember the following:
1. Make sure every answer sheet has your
o Name
o Grade and Section
o Title of the Activity or Activity No.
2. Follow the date of submission as agreed with your teacher.
3. Keep the modules with you.
4. Return them at the end of the school year

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